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November 2014

FiveThirtyEight’s Gubernatorial Forecasts: A Lot Of Really Close Races
Senate Update: Republicans Lead Where They Need To, But Uncertainty Abounds
Senate Update: Polls Point Increasingly To Republican Senate Win
Ctrl + ← Wizards, Words, Wealth and Witches
Senate Update: Democrats’ Chance Of Holding On Continues To Fall
Are The State Polls Skewed?
Grading Your State’s Preparedness For An Ebola Outbreak
Is 2014 A Republican Wave?
How Likely Are The Royals To Return To The World Series?
Finding A Job With A Felony Conviction Is Hard. California May Make It Easier.
One Day Left: The Most Competitive Races For Governor
Republicans Are Leaving House Seats On The Table
Video: What If Democrats Keep Control Of The Senate?
The Numbers Behind D.C.’s Pot Decriminalization Push
Why Michelle Nunn Is Rooting For A Senate Runoff In Georgia
Democrats Need Chaos
Unskewed Polls, Early Voting Edition
Final Update: Republicans Have A 3 In 4 Chance Of Winning The Senate
Mapping The Changing Face Of The Lone Star State
Final Gubernatorial Forecasts: Close Contests In 10 Races
Video: Where The Polls Could Go Wrong
Americans Overestimate The Number of Muslims And Teen Moms, But Not By As Much As Reported
How Good Are Incumbent Governors’ Economic Records?
Video: Nate Silver And Harry Enten On How Election Night Will Unfold
How Screwed Are The Eagles With Mark Sanchez As Their Starting QB?
Special Coverage: The 2014 Midterms
Five Scenarios For The Senate Election
Some Do’s And Don’t’s For Evaluating Senate Forecasts
Landrieu Needs A Game Changer To Hold On To Her Senate Seat
Video: Nate Silver And Harry Enten On Republicans’ Big Win
The Polls Were Skewed Toward Democrats
A Big Night For Minimum Wage Increases
Several Pollsters Say Polls Did Well On Election Day
Nearly 18 Million People Live In Areas Where Marijuana Is Fully Legal
More Cola Than Juice: America’s Favorite Beverages
Preliminary Turnout Numbers Are Way Down From 2010 And 2012
Flying Blind Toward Hogan’s Upset Win In Maryland
Alex Rodriguez Would’ve Made The Hall Of Fame Without Steroids
NFL Week 10 Playoff Implications: A Big Week For Miami And Detroit
What To Expect Now That California Passed Prop 47
NFL Week 10 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds
Magnus Carlsen Is More Than An Odds-On Favorite To Win The World Chess Championship
Dear Mona, How Many People Regret Their Tattoos?
Why Polls Missed A Shocker In Virginia’s Senate Race
Most Pollsters We Surveyed Say Polling Did Well This Year
More Employers Are Hiring But They Aren’t Raising Pay
Skeptical Football: Special Midterm Edition
The Divide Between Republican And Democratic Voters On Major Issues
How Unexpected Was Cleveland’s Shellacking Of Cincinnati?
Ctrl + ← Congressmen, Candy And Disney Princesses
Are The Concerns About Water Fluoridation Legit?
Funding Alone Can’t Change How Sexual Assault Is Handled On Campus
Cardinals Fans Shouldn’t Panic Just Yet About The Loss of Carson Palmer
What Percentage Of State Lottery Money Goes To The State?
Parenting, Pollution And Media Bias
The NFL Should Expand To London. But First: Canada, Mexico And LA.
Something Funny Happened In Iowa, And It May Hurt Democrats In 2016
Recent Veterans Still Struggle To Find Work
Derrick Rose Is (Almost) Playing Like His Old Self Again
The Countries Where People Are Most Likely To Celebrate Singles Day (And Make Alibaba Richer)
Talking With A Chess Grandmaster About The World Chess Championship
How Data Can Help You Write A Better Screenplay
Randy Moss May Well Have Been The Greatest Receiver Of All Time
Week 11 NFL Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds
NFL Week 11 Playoff Implications: What The AFC North And Denmark Have In Common
Reminder: The FBI’s ‘Police Homicide’ Count Is Wrong
Why It Might Be Time To Rethink The Rules Of Parole
Hurrah For Quitters
The Greatest Rivalry In Men’s Pro Tennis History Is Happening Now
Why We Don’t Know The Real Ebola Mortality Rate In The U.S.
Thursday Night Football Has Been Awful This Year, But So Has Sunday Night Football
The Elders Of Men’s Tennis Hold Off Youngsters At ATP World Tour Finals
The Long Migration Of English Football
The Worst College Football Game In The Worst College Football Town
Finally, Mike Trout Is The MVP
Here’s Proof Some Pollsters Are Putting A Thumb On The Scale
Who Might Be Included In Obama’s Immigration Overhaul?
Wendy Davis’s Campaign Was Bad, But That Probably Didn’t Matter
Ctrl + ← Fishing, Families And Fedspeak
More Free Lunches Could Spoil Data For Researchers
Why The Best Supreme Court Predictor In The World Is Some Random Guy In Queens
What The Surprise Japanese Recession Says About Economic Forecasting
Twitter Politics, Drunken Driving And Tax Deductions
Offering Birth Control Over The Counter Wouldn’t Make It Any Cheaper
The Patriots Really Do Own The Second Half Of The Season
Why House Republicans Did Even Better Than They Expected
More On Bill Cosby’s History Of Mentioning ‘Spanish Fly’
U.K. Report Is Latest Evidence That Crime Stats Heavily Undercount Rape
A Few Surprises In The Senate’s Rejection Of The Keystone XL Pipeline
Clinton Probably Can’t Expand The 2016 Map (And If She Does, It Won’t Matter)
The Supreme Court Won’t Be Getting Another Sotomayor Anytime Soon
NFL Week 12 Playoff Implications: Show The Cardinals Some Respect
Sign Up For A FiveThirtyEight Newsletter
Your Job May Affect How Your Brain Ages
Can Roger Federer Finally Win A Davis Cup?
Dear Mona, What’s The Most Common Name In America?
Outlier Pollsters Cheated Themselves In Virginia’s Senate Race
Week 12 NFL Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds
NBA Bids Farewell To Jason Collins, LGBT And Advanced Stats Pioneer
Can Alabama Afford To Lose?
Explaining The Slow Death Of American Entrepreneurship
Jim Webb Would Make A Good Anti-Clinton In 2016
Every President’s Executive Orders In One Chart
Calling In The Missouri National Guard May Have Been A Bad Idea
Listen To Planet Money Discuss The Secondary Sneaker Market
Obama’s Immigration Plan Mostly Covers Parents
The Electoral Politics Of Obama’s Immigration Speech In Nevada
The Election Map Alone Doesn’t Explain The 2014 Republican Wave
Undocumented Immigrants Aren’t Who You Think They Are
Skeptical Football: Patriots vs. Cardinals And An Interactive History Of The NFL
FiveThirtyEight’s College Football Playoff Forecast
A Huge Gender Gap Just Narrowed In The Art World
Every Immigration-Related Executive Action Of The Last 58 Years
By Playing Hurt, Federer Shows That The Davis Cup Still Matters
Kentucky Would Lose To The 76ers At Least 78 Percent Of The Time
Ctrl + ← Satellites, ‘Vape’ And NBA Shots
College Football Playoff Update: High Stakes For Florida State, UCLA
The U.S. Census Is Trying To Get A More Accurate Count Of Arab Americans
Hagel Served As Defense Secretary About As Long As History Would Suggest
The Case Against Early Cancer Detection
More Evidence James Smith Is The Most Common Name In The U.S.
It’s Incredibly Rare For A Grand Jury To Do What Ferguson’s Just Did
The Census Still Doesn’t Know How Many Same-Sex Couples There Are
Allegations Of Police Misconduct Rarely Result In Charges
Summer Reading, Government Jobs And Charitable Donations
Don’t Call 2014 An Anti-Incumbent Election
The Census Is Still Trying To Find The Best Way To Track Race In America
NFL Week 13 Playoff Implications: Be Thankful For Meaningful Games This Thanksgiving
Week 13 NFL Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds
How Each NFL Team’s Playoff Odds Have Changed This Season
What’s At Stake For Every College Football Playoff Contender
Skeptical Football: Thanksgiving Preview Edition
Dear Mona, Are There Any Other Men Who Don’t Watch Sports?
The FiveThirtyEight 2014 Holiday Gift Guide
Ctrl + ← Thanksgiving Turkey And Baloney
College Football Playoff Update: 7 Teams Competing For 4 Positions