fivethirtyeightindex

Explore 38,593 articles, datasets, podcasts, graphics and illustrations from fivethirtyeight.com

Harry Enten's 673 bylines

Unconvincing (to me) Use of Benford's Law to Demonstrate Election Fraud in Iran
Palin's Endorsements: More Method Than Madness
Travis Childers’ Elasticity Problem
John Cornyn Is Too Conservative to Lose This Primary
The Wild, Conservative West
Somebody Poll a Senate Race
Americans Disliked Russia Even Before the Crisis in Ukraine
Don’t Read Too Much Into Result in Florida’s 13th District
Sorry, Scott Brown: The Granite State Seems Happy With Its Senator
Romney, Obama And International Opinion
GOP Field Hasn’t Been This Split in 40 Years
History Suggests It Might Not Get Better For Democrats
Clinton Is Polling Like an Incumbent, And That Could Help Her in 2016
Yankees vs. Mets: The Battle For New York’s Heart
Midterm Turnout Isn’t the Only Reason For Rosy Republican Outlook
Poll Shows Record Obamacare Support, But That Doesn’t Mean Much
A Few Data Points on the Supreme Court’s Donor-Limit Decision
Senate Races in 2014 Lack (Good) Polling
The GOP Senator Most Likely to Falter in the Primary Season
There Isn’t a Secret Majority Supporting Obamacare
Jeb Bush Has as Good a Shot as Anybody
Vance McAllister’s Days in Congress Are Probably Numbered
How Partisan Are Partisan Senate Polls?
Kansas Has Moved on From Kathleen Sebelius
Early Senate Polls Have Plenty to Tell Us About November
Where People Feel Safe, And Where They Are Safe
Democrats Shouldn’t Count on an Electoral College Edge in 2016
Elizabeth Warren Wouldn’t Be 2016’s Obama, But She Could Be Its John Edwards
Indictment May Make Michael Grimm an Underdog, But He’s Not a Goner
GOP Establishment Looks Set to Win a Bunch of Senate Primaries
The Problems With The New Republic’s Senate Rankings
Sorry Democrats, Marijuana Doesn’t Bring Young Voters to the Polls
The ‘Blame Bush’ Era May Be at an End
Are Democrats in Worse Shape Than They Were in 2010?
A BuzzFeed Parody Made Real: Was Monica Lewinsky Really That Bad For Bill Clinton?
Young Voters in 2014 May Be Less Democratic-Leaning Than in 2010 And 2012
Midterm Election Turnout Isn’t So Different From Presidential Year Turnout
Will Incumbency Save McConnell, Pryor And Landrieu?
Marco Rubio’s Problem Isn’t What You Think It Is
An Anti-Death-Penalty Majority Might Be on Its Way … in 2044
What to Watch For in Georgia’s Republican Senate Primary
Oregon’s Mail-in Voting Makes Scandal Unlikely to Sink Wehby
Latest Same-Sex Marriage Rulings Prove That Scalia Was Right
Casting the Ideal Challenger to Hillary Clinton
The Disappearance of Conservative Commencement Speakers
Republicans Are Likely to Maintain Edge in Governorships
Three-Way Governor’s Race Could Get Messy For Cuomo
There’s an Actual Tea Party vs. Establishment Matchup in Mississippi
The Political Rhetoric Around Climate Change … Er, Global Warming
Is There a Favorite in the Republican Runoff For Senate in Mississippi?
Americans Sour on Obama’s Foreign Policy
The Eric Cantor Upset: What Happened?
Immigration Does Matter in GOP Primaries, But It’s Not Clear Why
We Have a Weather Forecast For Every World Cup Match, Even the Ones a Month Away
Whoever Fills Cantor’s Shoes Shouldn’t Bank on Becoming Speaker
Congress’s Low Approval Rating Is Hurting Republicans
Republicans Have Regained the Foreign Policy Edge
If Hillary Clinton Runs For President, When Might She Announce?
The Politics of the Washington Redskins Name Controversy
A Conservative Showdown in Oklahoma
The Mississippi Carnival Ends Tuesday as Voters Choose Cochran Or McDaniel
It Looks Like African-Americans Really Did Help Thad Cochran Win
History Really Was on Cochran’s Side in the Mississippi Runoff
Disliking Congress, as a Whole And as Individuals
How Much Do Democrats Depend on the Union Vote?
The House And Senate Are the Most Divided They’ve Been in Our Lifetimes
The Senate Races With the Biggest Ideological Stakes
Republicans’ Choice to Hold 2016 Convention in Cleveland Probably Won’t Help Them in Ohio
Following up on the Unimportance of the GOP’s 2016 Convention Choice
Democrats Are in a Perilous Position in 2014 Senate Races
Governors’ Races Are Close, But There’s More Upside For Democrats
Voters Are Rational in Midterm Elections
Elizabeth Warren Would Be the Most Liberal Democratic Nominee Since 1972
What to Watch For in Georgia’s Republican Senate Runoff
Chuck Schumer Is Wrong About the Top-Two Primary
The Polls Were Wrong in Georgia’s Senate Runoff, But Don’t Blame Turnout
Plagiarism Scandal Moves Democrat’s Odds in Montana From Slim to Almost Zero
Crist And Scott Could Make History by Being So Unpopular in Florida
We’re More Likely To See A Senator Ousted In Tennessee Than In Kansas
Democrats Face A Steep Climb In Montana Senate Race
Racial Voting Lines In Hawaii Senate Primary Leave Pollsters Mostly Clueless
Are Bad Pollsters Copying Good Pollsters?
The Most Blah Governors In The United States
How Will Being Indicted Affect Rick Perry’s 2016 Presidential Hopes?
The ‘Rand Paul Will Win Over Young Voters’ Myth
Six Consistently Close Races Will Probably Decide Control Of The Senate
Don’t Be So Quick To Call The New Hampshire Senate Race A Tie
Despite A Strange Poll, Scott Walker’s Still The Favorite To Win In Wisconsin
Migration Isn’t Turning Red States Blue
2014 NFL Preview: The Patriotic AFC East
Alaska’s Bill Walker Is The Independent Who’s Most Likely To Become A Governor
Senate Update: Lots Of New Polls, But Few Surprises
Looking For Signs Of Cuomo’s Liberal Problem In New York’s Democratic Primary
Senate Update: A Fresh Look At The Changed Race In Kansas
We Already Knew That A Majority Of Americans Think Obama Is A Failure
Senate Update: Democrats Get Good News In Michigan, Bad News In The United States
What Cuomo’s Re-election Tells Us About His Future
Senate Update: A Push Day On The Polling Front
Senate Update: A Big Swing In North Carolina Improves Democrats’ Chances
‘Rally Around The Flag’ Events Are Rare
Senate Update: Democrats In Purple States Are Beating The National Mood
Americans’ Opinions On Spanking Vary By Party, Race, Region And Religion
Pollsters Shouldn’t Take Mulligans
Senate Update: Democrats Take Another Small Step Forward
Senate Update: More Races Become More Competitive
Losing Scotland Would Be A Weather Winner For The U.K.
Senate Update: Optimistic Numbers For GOP In Colorado And Iowa
Why Pollsters Think They Underestimated ‘No’ In Scotland
Senate Update: The Races Most Sensitive To New Polling
The Racial Gap On Global Warming
Senate Update: Two Different Views Of Alaska
Senate Update: A January Runoff In Georgia Is Getting More Likely
Ruth Bader Ginsburg Would Probably Be Confirmed Today
Why Eric Holder’s Replacement Is Likely To Have A Tough Confirmation
Senate Update: I Can See The House Effects In Alaska From Here
Little Change In The Senate, And A Sense Of Déjà Vu In Massachusetts
Senate Update: Watching The Signal And Not The Noise
Senate Update: Don’t Take These Poll Results At Face Value
Senate Update: Democrats Wrapping Up In Michigan
Ferguson’s Elections Look Like They Are About to Change
Senate Update: A Reality Check On The Polls And Our Forecast
Why We Aren’t Talking About The Economy In 2014
Senate Update: Don’t Forget About Kentucky And Georgia
The Voter Registration Report From Ferguson Was Impossible
Orman Has His Largest Lead, But The Kansas Electorate Is More Fluid Than Elsewhere
Senate Update: Don’t Go Crazy
Senate Update: Republican Fortunes Rise In Alaska
Senate Update: National And State Polls Are Starting To Show The Same Thing
Senate Update: What A Republican Win On Election Night Would Look Like
Senate Update: A Lot Has Changed — And Mostly Stayed The Same
Voters Still Don’t Like The Guy, But Crist Is Now Leading In Florida
Senate Update: Georgia On My Mind
Senate Update: Democratic Hopes Dim in Kentucky
Senate Update: Do We Have Enough Polls?
Senate Update: Yellow Flags For Democrats In North Carolina
No One Can Tell You How Much Snow We’ll Get This Winter — At Least Not Yet
Is The Ebola Crisis Affecting The Midterm Elections?
Senate Update: There’s A 47 Percent Chance The 2014 Midterms Will Go To Overtime
Senate Update: Colorado Polling Is Probably Right. Udall Is Losing.
Senate Update: It Could All Come Down To Iowa
Why Did A Rasmussen Reports Poll Disappear?
Senate Update: There’s A 70 Percent Chance Georgia Will Go To A Runoff
Another Michigan Republican Appears Headed For Defeat
Background Checks For Gun Sales Look Likely To Pass In Washington
Why The Senate Polling In Alaska Is Making Us Sweat
One Reason Bruce Braley Still Has A Chance in Iowa
Senate Update: The Momentum Mirage
Senate Update: Republicans Lead Where They Need To, But Uncertainty Abounds
Senate Update: Democrats’ Chance Of Holding On Continues To Fall
One Day Left: The Most Competitive Races For Governor
Republicans Are Leaving House Seats On The Table
Unskewed Polls, Early Voting Edition
Final Gubernatorial Forecasts: Close Contests In 10 Races
Landrieu Needs A Game Changer To Hold On To Her Senate Seat
Flying Blind Toward Hogan’s Upset Win In Maryland
Something Funny Happened In Iowa, And It May Hurt Democrats In 2016
The Worst College Football Game In The Worst College Football Town
Wendy Davis’s Campaign Was Bad, But That Probably Didn’t Matter
A Few Surprises In The Senate’s Rejection Of The Keystone XL Pipeline
Clinton Probably Can’t Expand The 2016 Map (And If She Does, It Won’t Matter)
The Supreme Court Won’t Be Getting Another Sotomayor Anytime Soon
Outlier Pollsters Cheated Themselves In Virginia’s Senate Race
Jim Webb Would Make A Good Anti-Clinton In 2016
The Electoral Politics Of Obama’s Immigration Speech In Nevada
The Election Map Alone Doesn’t Explain The 2014 Republican Wave
Hagel Served As Defense Secretary About As Long As History Would Suggest
What Might Persuade Hillary Clinton Not To Run In 2016
The 2014 Senate Elections Were The Most Nationalized In Decades
The Grand Jury In The Eric Garner Chokehold Case Was Especially Unlikely To Indict
Senate Forecast: Landrieu Headed Toward Historic Defeat In Louisiana Runoff
Democrats Shouldn’t Give Up On The South
Obama Is Unpopular, And That’s Unlikely To Change
Support For Gun Control Slips As Media Loses Interest
Don’t Bet On Clinton Faltering In Iowa A Second Time
There Won’t Be A Backlash To Ending The Cuba Embargo
Jeb Bush Might Have A Tea Party Problem In 2016
Rand Paul Just Hurt His Chances In Florida’s 2016 GOP Primary
New Yorkers Who Like Cops Don’t Like De Blasio
Don’t Take Ben Carson Seriously (Except In Iowa — Maybe)
Americans Disagree With Obama On The State Of Race Relations
What I Got Wrong In 2014
Huckabee Could Make It Easier For A More Moderate Republican To Win In 2016
The Performance Art Of Voting Against Boehner
Americans Aren’t Becoming More Politically Independent, They Just Like Saying They Are
2016 Is Here
Conservatives In The House, Then Moderates In The Senate
Five Reasons Romney Is Thinking of Running
Looking For Clues: Who Is Going To Run For President In 2016?
The Rebound In Obama’s Approval Is Real
One Year From The Iowa Caucus: What We Know
Romney Has An Empathy Problem, But So Do Most Republicans
Ranking The States From Most To Least Corrupt
The East Coast May Be About To Get One Of The Worst Blizzards It’s Ever Seen
Everybody Hates Chris Christie
Stop Calling This Blizzard ‘Juno’
How Meteorologists Botched The Blizzard Of 2015
What Sarah Palin And Chris Christie Have In Common
Lindsey Graham Would Be A Very Underwhelming Presidential Candidate
Who Will Run For President: Romney Is Out
Chaos, Not Scott Walker, Leads The Republican Field In Iowa
Americans And Scientists Agree More On Vaccines Than On Other Hot Button Issues
10 Of The Biggest Presidential Primary Busts In Recent History
Brian Williams Has Lasted Longer Than Most In NBC’s Anchor Chair
The Overhyped Reaction To Jon Stewart Leaving ‘The Daily Show’
Is Mount Rushmore Statistically Accurate?
Boston’s Ridiculous February Snowfall In One Chart
Republicans Like The Bushes’ Stances On Foreign Policy
Who Will Run For President: Every Republican
Hillary Clinton Is The George W. Bush Of 2016
The Fed Has Never Been More Polarizing
There’s A 92 Percent Chance The Senate Will Confirm Loretta Lynch As Attorney General
The 2016 GOP Field Is Shaping Up As Historically Crowded — And Unpredictable
Why Some Democrats Attended Netanyahu’s Speech And Some Didn’t
Scott Walker’s Electoral Record Is Just As Impressive As It Looks
Corruption Charges Against Menendez Could Be Good News For Christie
Has The Snow Finally Stopped?
Democrats See The Media As Biased Against Clinton
5 Lessons On The Clinton Email Scandal From Political Science
Boston Breaks Snowfall Record With An Amazing Finish
Why Israel’s Election Is Too Close To Call
Why Aaron Schock Resigned
Oregon’s New Automatic Voter Registration Is Unlikely To Have A Big Effect
Liz Mair Had A Point
Loretta Lynch’s Prolonged Confirmation Wait Is Unusual, But Not Unprecedented
New York And Philadelphia Are In The Middle Of Historically Snowy Months
Let’s Be Serious About Ted Cruz From The Start: He’s Too Extreme And Too Disliked To Win
Ted Cruz Is Late To The Party
Democrats Could Put Indiana Senate Seat In Play In 2016 — Especially If Evan Bayh Runs
Ted Cruz Is Just Like Reagan In 1980, Except People Actually Liked Reagan
Some Democrats Who Could Step Up If Hillary Isn’t Ready For Hillary
Why Harry Reid Chose Chuck Schumer
Martin O’Malley Shouldn’t Try To Out-Liberal Hillary Clinton
African-Americans Are An Outlier On Indiana’s Religious Freedom Law
Rand Paul Is Losing His Father’s Base
Michael Brown’s Neighborhood In Ferguson Still Lags In Voter Turnout
The Hillary Clinton Steamroller Rumbles To Life
The Official 2016 GOP Field Gets Its First Real Contender: Marco Rubio
For Better Or Worse, Clinton Is Likely Stuck Running For Obama’s Third Term
Democrats Want Clinton To Face A Primary Challenger (But They Want Clinton To Win)
The Politics Of Christie’s Social Security Plan Are Atrocious
U.K. Polls Are Boring
Walker Has (Sorta) Broken Through In Iowa, And He Has Room To Grow
Gov. Chris Christie, You’re No John McCain
Scott Walker’s Legal Immigration Faux Pas
Obama Has Waited Longer For Cabinet Confirmations Than Any Other Recent President
Marco Rubio Is A Strong Candidate — Despite His Polling Surge
Jeb Bush Has The Cash, But Not The GOP Support
Rick Snyder Has A Chris Christie Problem
Enter The Democratic Primary’s Liberal Alternative: Bernie Sanders!
Chris Christie’s Access Lanes To The GOP Nomination Are Closed