Harry Enten (743 entries)

Unconvincing (to me) Use of Benford's Law to Demonstrate Election Fraud in Iran
Palin's Endorsements: More Method Than Madness
Travis Childers’ Elasticity Problem
John Cornyn Is Too Conservative to Lose This Primary
The Wild, Conservative West
Somebody Poll a Senate Race
Americans Disliked Russia Even Before the Crisis in Ukraine
Don’t Read Too Much Into Result in Florida’s 13th District
Sorry, Scott Brown: The Granite State Seems Happy With Its Senator
Romney, Obama And International Opinion
GOP Field Hasn’t Been This Split in 40 Years
History Suggests It Might Not Get Better For Democrats
Clinton Is Polling Like an Incumbent, And That Could Help Her in 2016
Yankees vs. Mets: The Battle For New York’s Heart
Midterm Turnout Isn’t the Only Reason For Rosy Republican Outlook
Poll Shows Record Obamacare Support, But That Doesn’t Mean Much
A Few Data Points on the Supreme Court’s Donor-Limit Decision
Senate Races in 2014 Lack (Good) Polling
The GOP Senator Most Likely to Falter in the Primary Season
There Isn’t a Secret Majority Supporting Obamacare
Jeb Bush Has as Good a Shot as Anybody
Vance McAllister’s Days in Congress Are Probably Numbered
How Partisan Are Partisan Senate Polls?
Kansas Has Moved on From Kathleen Sebelius
Early Senate Polls Have Plenty to Tell Us About November
Where People Feel Safe, And Where They Are Safe
Democrats Shouldn’t Count on an Electoral College Edge in 2016
Elizabeth Warren Wouldn’t Be 2016’s Obama, But She Could Be Its John Edwards
Indictment May Make Michael Grimm an Underdog, But He’s Not a Goner
GOP Establishment Looks Set to Win a Bunch of Senate Primaries
The Problems With The New Republic’s Senate Rankings
Sorry Democrats, Marijuana Doesn’t Bring Young Voters to the Polls
The ‘Blame Bush’ Era May Be at an End
Are Democrats in Worse Shape Than They Were in 2010?
A BuzzFeed Parody Made Real: Was Monica Lewinsky Really That Bad For Bill Clinton?
Young Voters in 2014 May Be Less Democratic-Leaning Than in 2010 And 2012
Midterm Election Turnout Isn’t So Different From Presidential Year Turnout
Will Incumbency Save McConnell, Pryor And Landrieu?
Marco Rubio’s Problem Isn’t What You Think It Is
An Anti-Death-Penalty Majority Might Be on Its Way … in 2044
What to Watch For in Georgia’s Republican Senate Primary
Oregon’s Mail-in Voting Makes Scandal Unlikely to Sink Wehby
Latest Same-Sex Marriage Rulings Prove That Scalia Was Right
Casting the Ideal Challenger to Hillary Clinton
The Disappearance of Conservative Commencement Speakers
Republicans Are Likely to Maintain Edge in Governorships
Three-Way Governor’s Race Could Get Messy For Cuomo
There’s an Actual Tea Party vs. Establishment Matchup in Mississippi
The Political Rhetoric Around Climate Change … Er, Global Warming
Is There a Favorite in the Republican Runoff For Senate in Mississippi?
Americans Sour on Obama’s Foreign Policy
The Eric Cantor Upset: What Happened?
Immigration Does Matter in GOP Primaries, But It’s Not Clear Why
We Have a Weather Forecast For Every World Cup Match, Even the Ones a Month Away
Whoever Fills Cantor’s Shoes Shouldn’t Bank on Becoming Speaker
Congress’s Low Approval Rating Is Hurting Republicans
Republicans Have Regained the Foreign Policy Edge
If Hillary Clinton Runs For President, When Might She Announce?
If Hillary Clinton Runs For President, When Might She Announce?
The Politics of the Washington Redskins Name Controversy
A Conservative Showdown in Oklahoma
The Mississippi Carnival Ends Tuesday as Voters Choose Cochran Or McDaniel
It Looks Like African-Americans Really Did Help Thad Cochran Win
History Really Was on Cochran’s Side in the Mississippi Runoff
Disliking Congress, as a Whole And as Individuals
How Much Do Democrats Depend on the Union Vote?
The House And Senate Are the Most Divided They’ve Been in Our Lifetimes
The Senate Races With the Biggest Ideological Stakes
Republicans’ Choice to Hold 2016 Convention in Cleveland Probably Won’t Help Them in Ohio
Following up on the Unimportance of the GOP’s 2016 Convention Choice
Following up on the Unimportance of the GOP’s 2016 Convention Choice
Democrats Are in a Perilous Position in 2014 Senate Races
Governors’ Races Are Close, But There’s More Upside For Democrats
Voters Are Rational in Midterm Elections
Elizabeth Warren Would Be the Most Liberal Democratic Nominee Since 1972
What to Watch For in Georgia’s Republican Senate Runoff
Chuck Schumer Is Wrong About the Top-Two Primary
The Polls Were Wrong in Georgia’s Senate Runoff, But Don’t Blame Turnout
Plagiarism Scandal Moves Democrat’s Odds in Montana From Slim to Almost Zero
Crist And Scott Could Make History by Being So Unpopular in Florida
We’re More Likely To See A Senator Ousted In Tennessee Than In Kansas
Democrats Face A Steep Climb In Montana Senate Race
Racial Voting Lines In Hawaii Senate Primary Leave Pollsters Mostly Clueless
Are Bad Pollsters Copying Good Pollsters?
The Most Blah Governors In The United States
How Will Being Indicted Affect Rick Perry’s 2016 Presidential Hopes?
The ‘Rand Paul Will Win Over Young Voters’ Myth
Six Consistently Close Races Will Probably Decide Control Of The Senate
Don’t Be So Quick To Call The New Hampshire Senate Race A Tie
Despite A Strange Poll, Scott Walker’s Still The Favorite To Win In Wisconsin
Migration Isn’t Turning Red States Blue
2014 NFL Preview: The Patriotic AFC East
Alaska’s Bill Walker Is The Independent Who’s Most Likely To Become A Governor
Senate Update: Lots Of New Polls, But Few Surprises
Looking For Signs Of Cuomo’s Liberal Problem In New York’s Democratic Primary
Senate Update: A Fresh Look At The Changed Race In Kansas
We Already Knew That A Majority Of Americans Think Obama Is A Failure
Senate Update: Democrats Get Good News In Michigan, Bad News In The United States
What Cuomo’s Re-election Tells Us About His Future
Senate Update: A Push Day On The Polling Front
Senate Update: A Big Swing In North Carolina Improves Democrats’ Chances
‘Rally Around The Flag’ Events Are Rare
Senate Update: Democrats In Purple States Are Beating The National Mood
Americans’ Opinions On Spanking Vary By Party, Race, Region And Religion
Pollsters Shouldn’t Take Mulligans
Senate Update: Democrats Take Another Small Step Forward
Senate Update: More Races Become More Competitive
Losing Scotland Would Be A Weather Winner For The U.K.
Senate Update: Optimistic Numbers For GOP In Colorado And Iowa
Why Pollsters Think They Underestimated ‘No’ In Scotland
Senate Update: The Races Most Sensitive To New Polling
The Racial Gap On Global Warming
Senate Update: Two Different Views Of Alaska
Senate Update: A January Runoff In Georgia Is Getting More Likely
Ruth Bader Ginsburg Would Probably Be Confirmed Today
Why Eric Holder’s Replacement Is Likely To Have A Tough Confirmation
Senate Update: I Can See The House Effects In Alaska From Here
Little Change In The Senate, And A Sense Of Déjà Vu In Massachusetts
Senate Update: Watching The Signal And Not The Noise
Senate Update: Don’t Take These Poll Results At Face Value
Senate Update: Democrats Wrapping Up In Michigan
Ferguson’s Elections Look Like They Are About to Change
Senate Update: A Reality Check On The Polls And Our Forecast
Why We Aren’t Talking About The Economy In 2014
Senate Update: Don’t Forget About Kentucky And Georgia
The Voter Registration Report From Ferguson Was Impossible
Orman Has His Largest Lead, But The Kansas Electorate Is More Fluid Than Elsewhere
Senate Update: Don’t Go Crazy
Senate Update: Republican Fortunes Rise In Alaska
Senate Update: National And State Polls Are Starting To Show The Same Thing
Senate Update: What A Republican Win On Election Night Would Look Like
Senate Update: A Lot Has Changed — And Mostly Stayed The Same
Voters Still Don’t Like The Guy, But Crist Is Now Leading In Florida
Senate Update: Georgia On My Mind
Senate Update: Democratic Hopes Dim in Kentucky
Senate Update: Do We Have Enough Polls?
Senate Update: Yellow Flags For Democrats In North Carolina
No One Can Tell You How Much Snow We’ll Get This Winter — At Least Not Yet
Is The Ebola Crisis Affecting The Midterm Elections?
Senate Update: There’s A 47 Percent Chance The 2014 Midterms Will Go To Overtime
Senate Update: Colorado Polling Is Probably Right. Udall Is Losing.
Senate Update: It Could All Come Down To Iowa
Why Did A Rasmussen Reports Poll Disappear?
Senate Update: There’s A 70 Percent Chance Georgia Will Go To A Runoff
Another Michigan Republican Appears Headed For Defeat
Background Checks For Gun Sales Look Likely To Pass In Washington
Why The Senate Polling In Alaska Is Making Us Sweat
One Reason Bruce Braley Still Has A Chance in Iowa
Senate Update: The Momentum Mirage
Senate Update: Republicans Lead Where They Need To, But Uncertainty Abounds
Senate Update: Democrats’ Chance Of Holding On Continues To Fall
One Day Left: The Most Competitive Races For Governor
Republicans Are Leaving House Seats On The Table
Republicans Are Leaving House Seats On The Table
Unskewed Polls, Early Voting Edition
Final Gubernatorial Forecasts: Close Contests In 10 Races
Landrieu Needs A Game Changer To Hold On To Her Senate Seat
Flying Blind Toward Hogan’s Upset Win In Maryland
Something Funny Happened In Iowa, And It May Hurt Democrats In 2016
The Worst College Football Game In The Worst College Football Town
Wendy Davis’s Campaign Was Bad, But That Probably Didn’t Matter
A Few Surprises In The Senate’s Rejection Of The Keystone XL Pipeline
Clinton Probably Can’t Expand The 2016 Map (And If She Does, It Won’t Matter)
The Supreme Court Won’t Be Getting Another Sotomayor Anytime Soon
Outlier Pollsters Cheated Themselves In Virginia’s Senate Race
Jim Webb Would Make A Good Anti-Clinton In 2016
The Electoral Politics Of Obama’s Immigration Speech In Nevada
The Election Map Alone Doesn’t Explain The 2014 Republican Wave
Hagel Served As Defense Secretary About As Long As History Would Suggest
What Might Persuade Hillary Clinton Not To Run In 2016
The 2014 Senate Elections Were The Most Nationalized In Decades
The Grand Jury In The Eric Garner Chokehold Case Was Especially Unlikely To Indict
Senate Forecast: Landrieu Headed Toward Historic Defeat In Louisiana Runoff
Democrats Shouldn’t Give Up On The South
Obama Is Unpopular, And That’s Unlikely To Change
Support For Gun Control Slips As Media Loses Interest
Don’t Bet On Clinton Faltering In Iowa A Second Time
There Won’t Be A Backlash To Ending The Cuba Embargo
Jeb Bush Might Have A Tea Party Problem In 2016
Rand Paul Just Hurt His Chances In Florida’s 2016 GOP Primary
New Yorkers Who Like Cops Don’t Like De Blasio
Don’t Take Ben Carson Seriously (Except In Iowa — Maybe)
Americans Disagree With Obama On The State Of Race Relations
What I Got Wrong In 2014
Huckabee Could Make It Easier For A More Moderate Republican To Win In 2016
The Performance Art Of Voting Against Boehner
The Performance Art Of Voting Against Boehner
Americans Aren’t Becoming More Politically Independent, They Just Like Saying They Are
2016 Is Here
2016 Is Here
Conservatives In The House, Then Moderates In The Senate
Five Reasons Romney Is Thinking of Running
Looking For Clues: Who Is Going To Run For President In 2016?
The Rebound In Obama’s Approval Is Real
One Year From The Iowa Caucus: What We Know
Romney Has An Empathy Problem, But So Do Most Republicans
Ranking The States From Most To Least Corrupt
Ranking The States From Most To Least Corrupt
The East Coast May Be About To Get One Of The Worst Blizzards It’s Ever Seen
Everybody Hates Chris Christie
Stop Calling This Blizzard ‘Juno’
How Meteorologists Botched The Blizzard Of 2015
What Sarah Palin And Chris Christie Have In Common
Lindsey Graham Would Be A Very Underwhelming Presidential Candidate
Who Will Run For President: Romney Is Out
Chaos, Not Scott Walker, Leads The Republican Field In Iowa
Americans And Scientists Agree More On Vaccines Than On Other Hot Button Issues
10 Of The Biggest Presidential Primary Busts In Recent History
Brian Williams Has Lasted Longer Than Most In NBC’s Anchor Chair
The Overhyped Reaction To Jon Stewart Leaving ‘The Daily Show’
The Overhyped Reaction To Jon Stewart Leaving ‘The Daily Show’
Is Mount Rushmore Statistically Accurate?
Is Mount Rushmore Statistically Accurate?
Boston’s Ridiculous February Snowfall In One Chart
Republicans Like The Bushes’ Stances On Foreign Policy
Who Will Run For President: Every Republican
Hillary Clinton Is The George W. Bush Of 2016
Hillary Clinton Is The George W. Bush Of 2016
The Fed Has Never Been More Polarizing
There’s A 92 Percent Chance The Senate Will Confirm Loretta Lynch As Attorney General
There’s A 92 Percent Chance The Senate Will Confirm Loretta Lynch As Attorney General
The 2016 GOP Field Is Shaping Up As Historically Crowded — And Unpredictable
Why Some Democrats Attended Netanyahu’s Speech And Some Didn’t
Scott Walker’s Electoral Record Is Just As Impressive As It Looks
Corruption Charges Against Menendez Could Be Good News For Christie
Corruption Charges Against Menendez Could Be Good News For Christie
Has The Snow Finally Stopped?
Democrats See The Media As Biased Against Clinton
5 Lessons On The Clinton Email Scandal From Political Science
Boston Breaks Snowfall Record With An Amazing Finish
Why Israel’s Election Is Too Close To Call
Why Aaron Schock Resigned
Oregon’s New Automatic Voter Registration Is Unlikely To Have A Big Effect
Liz Mair Had A Point
Loretta Lynch’s Prolonged Confirmation Wait Is Unusual, But Not Unprecedented
New York And Philadelphia Are In The Middle Of Historically Snowy Months
Let’s Be Serious About Ted Cruz From The Start: He’s Too Extreme And Too Disliked To Win
Ted Cruz Is Late To The Party
Democrats Could Put Indiana Senate Seat In Play In 2016 — Especially If Evan Bayh Runs
Ted Cruz Is Just Like Reagan In 1980, Except People Actually Liked Reagan
Some Democrats Who Could Step Up If Hillary Isn’t Ready For Hillary
Why Harry Reid Chose Chuck Schumer
Martin O’Malley Shouldn’t Try To Out-Liberal Hillary Clinton
African-Americans Are An Outlier On Indiana’s Religious Freedom Law
Rand Paul Is Losing His Father’s Base
Michael Brown’s Neighborhood In Ferguson Still Lags In Voter Turnout
The Hillary Clinton Steamroller Rumbles To Life
The Official 2016 GOP Field Gets Its First Real Contender: Marco Rubio
For Better Or Worse, Clinton Is Likely Stuck Running For Obama’s Third Term
For Better Or Worse, Clinton Is Likely Stuck Running For Obama’s Third Term
Democrats Want Clinton To Face A Primary Challenger (But They Want Clinton To Win)
The Politics Of Christie’s Social Security Plan Are Atrocious
U.K. Polls Are Boring
Walker Has (Sorta) Broken Through In Iowa, And He Has Room To Grow
Gov. Chris Christie, You’re No John McCain
Scott Walker’s Legal Immigration Faux Pas
Obama Has Waited Longer For Cabinet Confirmations Than Any Other Recent President
Marco Rubio Is A Strong Candidate — Despite His Polling Surge
Jeb Bush Has The Cash, But Not The GOP Support
Rick Snyder Has A Chris Christie Problem
Enter The Democratic Primary’s Liberal Alternative: Bernie Sanders!
Chris Christie’s Access Lanes To The GOP Nomination Are Closed
Two Background Players Join The 2016 Fray: Carly Fiorina And Ben Carson
Huckabee May Be Doomed To Rerun His 2008 Campaign In 2016
Is Six Democratic Debates Too Few?
What The U.K. Exit Poll Will Tell Us
Jeb Bush’s Bumbling On Iraq May Hurt Him Later Rather Than Sooner
Trust (With A Margin Of Error) Upcoming Tropical Storm Forecasts
Adrian Beltre Is Hall Of Fame Worthy
Hillary Clinton Was Liberal. Hillary Clinton Is Liberal.
The GOP Candidates Most Likely To Be Left Out Of The Debates
Rick Santorum’s 2016 Bid Shows Just How Far The GOP Field Has Come
Why George Pataki’s Candidacy Is Virtually Hopeless In Two Charts
What The Nebraska Vote Means For The Death Penalty Nationally
The Supreme Court Could Transfer A Lot Of Political Power Away From Cities
Marylanders Don’t Like Martin O’Malley, So Why Would The Rest Of America?
Lindsey Graham May Have Already Won
There Is A Record Number Of Winter Jackets On The Streets Of The Northeast
There Is A Record Number Of Winter Jackets On The Streets Of The Northeast
It’s Not 2007 Anymore, Lincoln Chafee
It’s Not 2007 Anymore, Lincoln Chafee
Rick Perry Fell Harder Than Anyone — And He’s The First To Try Again
What Fox News Still Isn’t Saying About Its GOP Debate
Don’t Pay Attention To That Wisconsin Straw Poll
Don’t Pay Attention To That Wisconsin Straw Poll
There Are More Liberals, But Not Fewer Conservatives
There Are More Liberals, But Not Fewer Conservatives
Pols And Polls Say The Same Thing: Jeb Bush Is A Weak Front-Runner
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
What To Make Of The Bernie Sanders Surge
Brian Williams's Reign At NBC Is Over -- Here's How It Stacks Up
Brian Williams’s Reign At NBC Is Over — Here’s How It Stacks Up
The Massacre In Charleston Is Unlikely To Lead To Gun Control Legislation
The Massacre In Charleston Is Unlikely To Lead To Gun Control Legislation
Bobby Jindal Should Have Run In 2012, Not 2016
The Receding Of Sarah Palin, In One Chart
The Receding Of Sarah Palin, In One Chart
How Media Interest In The GOP Candidates Compares To Public Interest
Obamacare As A Political Issue Isn’t Going Away
The GOP May Regret Its Lasting Battle Against Gay Marriage
Chris Christie’s Path Will Only Get Steeper From Here
Donald Trump's Immigration Statements Will Find A Home In His Party
Donald Trump’s Immigration Statements Will Find A Home In His Party
Jim Webb Is Searching For A Bygone Democratic Party
Jim Webb Is Searching For A Bygone Democratic Party
Scott Walker Wants To Cure His Party Of Its Weakness For Moderates
Opinions About The Iran Deal Are More About Obama Than Iran
Opinions About The Iran Deal Are More About Obama Than Iran
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
Voters Were Just As Diverse In 2014 As They Were In 2008
Chris Christie Is In Danger Of Missing The First Republican Debate
Chris Christie Is In Danger Of Missing The First Republican Debate
John Kasich: A Jeb Bush In Jon Huntsman Clothing
Trump Would Lose Badly In A Third-Party Bid, But He Could Take The Republican Down, Too
Trump Would Lose Badly In A Third-Party Bid, But He Could Take The Republican Down, Too
What’s Wrong With Rand Paul’s Campaign?
What’s Wrong With Rand Paul’s Campaign?
Four Republicans Are On The Bubble To Get Into The First Debate
Four Republicans Are On The Bubble To Get Into The First Debate
There’s No Perfect Way To Sort The Candidates For A Primary Debate
The Fox News GOP Debate Lineup Looks Pretty Set
The Fox News GOP Debate Lineup Looks Pretty Set
Joe Biden Isn’t The Anti-Clinton
Joe Biden Isn’t The Anti-Clinton
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
The Bernie Sanders Surge Appears To Be Over
The Bernie Sanders Surge Appears To Be Over
The Post-Debate Losers (Walker) and Winners (Fiorina)
The Post-Debate Losers (Walker) and Winners (Fiorina)
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
Senator Sanders, You’re No Barack Obama
Senator Sanders, You’re No Barack Obama
What Carly Fiorina Needs To Make CNN’s Main Stage Debate
What Carly Fiorina Needs To Make CNN’s Main Stage Debate
Joe Biden Is Buying Time By Playing The Media
Joe Biden Is Buying Time By Playing The Media
When Trump Attacks!
We Got Berned
We Got Berned
The Republican Establishment Is Waiting On The Sidelines
The Republican Establishment Is Waiting On The Sidelines
$14 Million In Campaign Spending Down, $4.4 Billion Still To Go
$14 Million In Campaign Spending Down, $4.4 Billion Still To Go
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
2015 NFL Preview: Tom Brady, Tom Brady, Tom Brady (And The Rest Of The AFC East)
There’s Hope For Bernie Sanders In Joe Biden’s Polling
There’s Hope For Bernie Sanders In Joe Biden’s Polling
Scott Walker Blew His Last Chance: The Debate
Scott Walker Blew His Last Chance: The Debate
Like Houseguests, The Worst Candidates Sometimes Stay The Longest
Like Houseguests, The Worst Candidates Sometimes Stay The Longest
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
Bobby Jindal Could Still Win Iowa
Bobby Jindal Could Still Win Iowa
Jeb Bush Has Endorsements — Just Not All The Right Ones
Jeb Bush Has Endorsements — Just Not All The Right Ones
Why Hurricane Joaquin Is So Hard To Forecast
Why Hurricane Joaquin Is So Hard To Forecast
Republicans Don’t Like Donald Trump As Much As They Used To
Republicans Don’t Like Donald Trump As Much As They Used To
Watch Out, Joe Biden, Polls Aren’t Kind To Candidates Who Enter Late
Watch Out, Joe Biden, Polls Aren’t Kind To Candidates Who Enter Late
Gallup Gave Up. Here’s Why That Sucks.
Gallup Gave Up. Here’s Why That Sucks.
Why Kevin McCarthy’s Speaker Bid Was Doomed
Why Kevin McCarthy’s Speaker Bid Was Doomed
Bernie Sanders’s Big Chance To Woo Non-White Voters
Bernie Sanders’s Big Chance To Woo Non-White Voters
Meet The Democratic Candidates Who Aren’t Hillary Clinton Or Bernie Sanders
Meet The Democratic Candidates Who Aren’t Hillary Clinton Or Bernie Sanders
Ted Cruz. Ted Cruz? Ted Cruz!
Lindsey Graham Might Not Even Make The Next JV Debate
Joe Biden Made The Right Call
What Paul Ryan Has That Kevin McCarthy And John Boehner Don’t
What Paul Ryan Has That Kevin McCarthy And John Boehner Don’t
Hillary Clinton Got The Biggest Post-Debate Polling Bounce
Hillary Clinton Got The Biggest Post-Debate Polling Bounce
Lincoln Chafee’s Polling Was … Consistent, At Least
Lincoln Chafee’s Polling Was … Consistent, At Least
A Hugely Powerful Hurricane Did Surprisingly Little Damage
A Hugely Powerful Hurricane Did Surprisingly Little Damage
Jeb Bush’s Problem Is Jeb Bush
Jeb Bush’s Problem Is Jeb Bush
Can A Democrat Still Win The Kentucky Governor’s Race?
Can A Democrat Still Win The Kentucky Governor’s Race?
What To Make Of Kentucky’s Polling Failure
Chris Christie, JV Debater, Could Thrive In Primary Chaos
A Year Out, Ignore General Election Polls
Cruz vs. Rubio Is A Long Way Off
Hillary Clinton Is The Most Establishment-Approved Candidate On Record
Why Bobby Jindal’s Candidacy Failed
GOP Politicians Are Supporting Candidates Who Think Like Them
The Bills Are Proof That A Team Needs More Than Just A Good QB
Will The New Hampshire Union Leader’s Endorsement Help Chris Christie?
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
The GOP Establishment May Need Religious Voters To Stop Donald Trump
Most Republicans Have Negative Views Of Muslims — And Toward A Religious Test
Americans Are Worried About Terrorism, And That Could Help The GOP
Polls Suggest Trump Will Win Between 8 Percent And 64 Percent Of The Vote
Shocker: Trump Tweets The Polls That Make Him Look Most Like A Winner
Bernie Sanders Can Still Catch Hillary Clinton In Iowa
Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting
Harry’s Guide To 2016 Election Polls
George Pataki’s Hopeless Campaign, In One Chart
What Harry Got Wrong In 2015
What Harry Got Wrong In 2015 [video]
To Win In Iowa Or New Hampshire, It May Be Better To Poll Worse Nationally
One Reason Hillary Clinton Might Underperform In The Early States
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
D.C., The Snow Is Coming For You
Why Aren’t Republican Leaders Rallying Behind Marco Rubio?
The Most Ominous Snow Forecasts For New York City Were Right
The Des Moines Register’s Endorsements Of Hillary Clinton And Marco Rubio Aren’t Game Changers
How Much Can Really Change Before Iowa Votes
Nominating Cruz Or Trump Might Not Doom Down-Ballot Republicans
The Best Pollster In Iowa Just Released Its Final Survey — How Accurate Has It Been?
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
Bernie Sanders Needs More Than The Tie He Got In Iowa
Bernie Sanders Needs More Than The Tie He Got In Iowa [video]
O’Malley Supporters Almost Won Iowa For Sanders
Bernie Sanders Needs A Big Win In New Hampshire
Marco Rubio Is In A Precarious Spot In New Hampshire
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
It Gets Harder From Here For Bernie Sanders
Elections Podcast: The New Hampshire Results
Obama Won’t Be Able To Replace Scalia With A Justice As Liberal As Sotomayor
The Party Is Deciding On Rubio
Jeb Bush’s Path To Defeat Began A Year Ago
Jeb Bush’s Path To Defeat Began A Year Ago [video]
Bernie Sanders Makes Progress, But Hillary Clinton Remains The Favorite
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
With All Eyes On Trump, Clinton Is Winning The Democratic Nomination
Super Guide to Super Tuesday — Republican Edition
Super Guide to Super Tuesday — Democratic Edition
Hillary Clinton’s Got This
Republicans Liked Ben Carson To The End (But Not Enough To Vote For Him)
Republicans Liked Ben Carson To The End (But Not Enough To Vote For Him) [video]
What’s At Stake For Republicans In This Weekend’s Elections
What The Stunning Bernie Sanders Win In Michigan Means
What’s At Stake For Republicans In The March 15 Primaries
What’s At Stake For Democrats In The March 15 Primaries
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
Primary Turnout Means Nothing For The General Election
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
What To Expect In The GOP Race In Arizona And Utah
Bernie Sanders Continues To Dominate Caucuses, But He’s About To Run Out Of Them
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
A New Yorker’s Guide To The GOP Primary — District By District
Democrats Have Gotten More Liberal Since 2008, But Not Enough To Nominate Sanders
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
Ted Cruz May Be Too Conservative To Stop Trump
A Guide To The Three Possible Outcomes In Indiana’s GOP Primary
The Long, Weird Kasich Campaign Gives In To Reality
The Long, Weird Kasich Campaign Gives In To Reality [video]
Americans’ Distaste For Both Trump And Clinton Is Record-Breaking
The Four Things I Learned From The Donald Trump Primary
Bernie Sanders May Win Big In West Virginia
Don’t Worry About The Electoral College Math
Elections Podcast: Should Congressional Republicans Be Worried About Trump?
What To Expect In The Democratic Primaries In Kentucky And Oregon
Trump Supporters Probably Aren’t Lying To Pollsters
Elections Podcast: The General Election Polls Tighten
Clinton Will Likely Clinch The Democratic Nomination In New Jersey
Sanders Isn’t Doing Well With True Independents
The System Isn’t ‘Rigged’ Against Sanders
GOP Voters Are Rallying Behind Trump As If He Were Any Other Candidate
Senate 2016: The Democrats Strike Back
It’s Almost Over: A Guide To The Final Primaries
Trump Isn’t Winning Enough White Voters
Be Wary Of Claims About How The Orlando Attack Will Affect The Election
Can Clinton Move Left To Get Sanders On Board And Still Win?
Trump Was Loyal To Corey Lewandowski — Until He Fell Behind Clinton
Rubio’s Best Route To The White House May Be Through The Senate
Conventional Wisdom: Will Bill Clinton Help Or Hurt His Wife’s Campaign?
Trump May Become The First Republican In 60 Years To Lose White College Graduates
Election Update: Is Gary Johnson Taking More Support From Clinton Or Trump?
What Bernie Sanders Meant
What Bernie Sanders Meant [video]
Sanders’s Endorsement May Help Among His Most Anti-Clinton Supporters
What The 1976 GOP Primary Tells Us About 2016’s
Mike Pence Is A Really Conservative And Mostly Unknown VP Pick
Pence Differs On Trump’s Core Issues
Melania Trump Is One Of The Least Popular Spouses Of A Nominee Since 1988
Harry Talks Polls With The Guardian’s Tom McCarthy
Hillary Clinton Picks Tim Kaine, Betting She Can Beat Trump Without A Splashy VP
Why Clinton Might Have A Tough Time Flipping The Sanders Holdouts
Watch The Polls For Clinton’s VP Bounce. If She Gets One.
Hillary Clinton And Donald Trump Are Now Equally Unpopular
Democratic Delegates React To Our Forecasts
Democratic Delegates React To Our Forecasts [video]
There’s Plenty Of Time For Trump Or Clinton To Become Likable Enough
The GOP’s Most Anti-Trump Voters Look A Lot Like Kasich Supporters
Trump May Start Dragging GOP Senate Candidates Down With Him
Is Georgia Becoming A Battleground State?
Election Update: Clinton’s Post-Convention Bump Is Showing No Signs Of Fading
About A Third Of Bernie Sanders’s Supporters Still Aren’t Backing Hillary Clinton
The Polls Aren’t Skewed
Trump Is In Fourth Place Among Black Voters
Election Update: How Clinton Could Win Without Florida And Ohio
The GOP’s Chances Of Holding The Senate Are Following Trump Downhill
Election Update: Why Clinton Doesn’t Have This Race Locked Up
Clinton And Trump Are Losing A Lot Of Young Voters
Trump Isn’t Tweeting About The Polls Anymore
Ohio’s GOP Senate Candidate Is Resisting Trump’s Downward Pull
Trump Is Making More States Competitive. Red States.
Missouri Could Be A Swing State Again
Gary Johnson Isn’t Fading
Down-Ballot Democrats Should Go After Johnson And Stein Voters
Live Polls And Online Polls Tell Different Stories About The Election
13 Tips For Reading General Election Polls Like A Pro
Despite What Trump Tweets, FiveThirtyEight Isn’t A Pollster
The More ‘Normal’ Trump Can Make This Race, The Better His Chances
Election Update: Trump’s Best Chance To Win In Obama Territory Is In Maine
Young Millennials Love Obama, But Clinton Is Struggling To Win Them Over
Polls Show Trump’s Momentum Has Stalled — For Now
Election Update: Where Polls And Demographics Disagree
Independent Voters Are Overrated
Why Clinton’s Electoral Map Isn’t As Good As Obama’s
Election Update: The Top ‘Must-Win’ States For Trump And Clinton
Election Update: Reports Of A Clinton Rebound Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
First Debates Usually Go To The Challenger
Senate Update: Races For The Senate And White House Are Moving In Near Lockstep
Trump Is More Unpopular Than Clinton Is — And That Matters
Trump Really, Really Needs To Win Florida
Trump’s Doing Worse Than Romney Did Among White Voters
Senate Update: 6 Really Important Races Are Really Close
Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Is Becoming Safer
First-Debate Losers Aren’t More Likely To Rebound In The Second Debate
Paul Ryan Needs Trump More Than Trump Needs Ryan
Is There Any Precedent For A Trump Comeback?
Senate Update: Clinton Is Surging, But Down-Ballot Democrats Are Losing Ground
Men Are Treating 2016 As A ‘Normal’ Election; Women Aren’t
Clinton-Trump Probably Won’t Be The Next ‘Dewey Defeats Truman’
Trump Needs To Win Tonight’s Debate, But That Would Only Be Step One
Senate Update: The Last Week Has Been Very Kind To Democrats’ Hopes For A Majority
What Went Wrong For Gary Johnson
Clinton Voters Aren’t Just Voting Against Trump
Senate Update: GOP Candidates Are Doing Better Than Trump — And May Still Lose
Senate Update: Rubio Is Keeping The Republicans’ Hopes Alive In The Senate
Almost Every Swing State Is A ‘Must Win’ For Trump Now
How Much Do ‘October Surprises’ Move The Polls?
Senate Update: Five Races Were On A Knife’s Edge Even Before Comey’s Letter
Los Votos Tempranos En Nevada Sugieren Que Clinton Podría Superar Las Encuestas Allí
The Early Vote In Nevada Suggests Clinton Might Beat Her Polls There
Senate Update: Pennsylvania Swings Left, Indiana and Wisconsin Right
Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton
Has Trump Already Lost Nevada?
The Senate’s A Toss-Up: A Race-By-Race Look
Senate Update: The Generic Ballot Is Hurting Democrats’ Chances
An Hour-By-Hour Guide To Election Night
Close Calls, Wild Nights [video]
Election Night Debuts
Election Night Debuts [video]
Too Soon?
Too Soon? [video]
The Polls Missed Trump. We Asked Pollsters Why.
There Were No Purple* States On Tuesday
‘Demographics Aren’t Destiny’ And Four Other Things This Election Taught Me
‘Shy’ Voters Probably Aren’t Why The Polls Missed Trump
Trump Probably Did Better With Latino Voters Than Romney Did
Politics Podcast: What Would You Change About American Democracy?
Trump Won Despite Being Unpopular, So Can He Govern That Way?
We’ve Never Known Less About An Incoming President’s Ideology
Even Among The Wealthy, Education Predicts Trump Support
Democrats Shouldn’t Count On An Unpopular Trump To Win Back Governorships
It’s Much Harder To Protect Southern Black Voters’ Influence Than It Was 10 Years Ago
Louisiana’s Senate Runoff Probably Isn’t Going To Make Democrats Feel Better
How The Public Views Ohio’s Abortion Bill
You Can’t Get Much More Popular Than John Glenn Was
It’s Not All About Clinton — The Midwest Was Getting Redder Before 2016
New York’s First Freeze Came Late (Again)
All Of A Sudden, Russia Has Become A Partisan Issue
Clinton May Gain Nearly 30,000 More Votes Over Trump In New York City
How Much Did WikiLeaks Hurt Hillary Clinton?
Buffalo’s Merry-Go-Round Of Head Coaches Spins Again
What Harry Got Wrong In 2016
What Harry Got Wrong In 2016 [video]
Registered Voters Who Stayed Home Probably Cost Clinton The Election
Will Trump Make Vaccines Another Partisan Issue?
Yea For Peaceful Transitions Of Power [video]
The Long, Storied History Of Inauguration Day Weather
The Long, Storied History Of Inauguration Day Weather [video]
Women Still Don’t Like Trump
Three Days Into Trump’s Presidency, 45 Percent Of Americans Disapprove Of His Performance
Will Trump’s Refugee Ban Have Public Support?
How Conservative A Supreme Court Nominee Can Trump Get Through The Senate?
Under A New System, Clinton Could Have Won The Popular Vote By 5 Points And Still Lost
Trump Picks Neil Gorsuch, A Scalia Clone, For The Supreme Court
So Far, No One Is Crossing The Aisle In The Trump Era
A Very Early Look At The Battle For The House In 2018
Why Trump’s Labor Nominee Failed
Actually, Trump’s Congress Isn’t Off To A Slower Start Than Normal
What’s Going On In The First House Elections Of The Trump Era
The Real Republican Maverick: Maine Sen. Susan Collins
Is John McCain A Maverick?
How Question Wording Affects (Or Doesn’t Affect) Support For Trump’s Travel Ban
Trump’s New Travel Ban Might Be Better Politically Than Legally
Americans Probably Won’t Like Parts Of The GOP Health Care Bill
TrumpBeat: How To Judge Trump
This East Coast Snowstorm Is Wicked Late
Politics Podcast: The Health Of The GOP’s Health Care Bill
Liberals Would Be Foolish To Primary Joe Manchin
TrumpBeat: Return Of The Facts
What To Expect From The Neil Gorsuch Confirmation Hearings
This Health Care Bill May Haunt The GOP
Emergency Health Care Podcast: Live From Boise
The Two Cracks In The Republican Party
New York Now Has More Mets Fans Than Yankees Fans
What The Special Election In Georgia Can — And Can’t — Tell Us About The Midterms
The Gorsuch Vote Shows The Old Senate Is Dead
The GOP’s New Health Care Plan Is Doomed Without Moderate Republicans
Will Trump Benefit From A ‘Rally Around The Flag’ Effect After The Syria Airstrike?
The Alabama Governor Meets The Limits Of Partisanship
Why Republicans Are Worried About Kansas
Is Trump Or Brownback To Blame For The Surprisingly Close Race In Kansas 4?
Everything You Need To Know About The Georgia 6 Special Election
5 Takeaways From The Georgia 6 Special Election
How Tightly Should Congressional Republicans Embrace Trump?
The French Election Is Way Too Close To Call
‘But It’s Tradition!’ Is No Reason To Ban Tie Games In MLB
Don’t Just Look At Trump’s Approval Rating To Judge His First 100 Days
Trump’s Health Care Bill Won Over The Freedom Caucus — But Risks Losing Everyone Else
Trump’s Health Care Bill Could Cost Him Working-Class Voters
The GOP Health Care Bill May Have Found A Better Way To Fail
Le Pen Is Just A Gargantuan Polling Error Behind Macron
Macron Won, But The French Polls Were Way Off
Trump Hasn’t Diminished America’s Faith In Elections, But He Has Polarized It
Even The Biggest Scandals Can’t Kill Party Loyalty
How Roger Ailes Polarized TV News
Why The 2018 Senate Elections Are Looking Bad For Both Parties
Democrats Don’t Need Trump’s Voters To Retake The House
Montana’s Special Election Could Give The GOP Another Reason To Fret
Was Trump’s Paris Exit Good Politics?
Here’s The Best Tool We Have For Understanding How The Midterms Are Shaping Up
Chris Christie’s Legacy Likely Won’t Include A GOP Successor
The Three Scenarios For The U.K. Election
The U.K. Election Wasn’t That Much Of A Shock
Democrats Have A Slight Edge In The Georgia 6 Runoff
Politics Podcast: Who Makes Up The Base?
What To Watch For In Virginia’s Gubernatorial Primaries
The Special Election In Frank Underwood’s District Also Matters
Georgia 6 Is All About The Voters Who Reluctantly Backed Trump
Neil Gorsuch Is Paying Off For Trump So Far
Maybe Trump Didn’t Remake The Political Map
Should Republicans Even Want The Senate Health Care Bill To Pass?
Chris Christie Is Still More Popular Than Governors Who Were Literally Criminals
Red-State Senate Democrats Haven’t Drawn Strong Opponents — Yet
Hey, Democrats, Maybe You Should Run Someone Against Jeff Flake
Six Months In, Trump Is Historically Unpopular
America Has Spoken: The Yankees Are The Worst
John McCain Has Increasingly Been A Thorn In Trump’s Side
Bad News For House Republicans: Clinton Won’t Be On The Ballot In 2018
Republican Senators Aren’t Embracing Trump’s Transgender Military Ban
The First 2020 Candidate Is … Hold On, I Had The Name Right Here … John Delaney
Democrats Aren’t In Lockstep Over Abortion — That’s Why They’re Fighting
Trump Picks A Favorite In Alabama’s GOP Senate Primary
The Normal Rules Of Politics Still Apply To Trump — And To Republicans In Congress
What To Watch For In Tonight’s Alabama Senate Primaries
The GOP Establishment Got What It Wanted (Sorta) In Alabama’s Senate Primary
Mets vs. Yankees? America Couldn’t Care Less, New York
How Big Is The Bannon Wing Of The Republican Party?
Politics Podcast: How Trump Talks About Race
Fake Polls Are A Real Problem
How To Avoid Falling For A Fake Poll
Believe The Meteorologists. Harvey Is Incredibly Dangerous.
Will The Arpaio Pardon Make Trump More Unpopular?
Trump Voters In Alabama May Be About To Teach Trump A Lesson
There’s Been A Lot Of News But Little Change In Trump’s Approval Rating
Hurricane Irma Will Be Dangerous No Matter Where It Makes Landfall
Trump’s Approval Rating Is Up A Tick
The Worst Case Scenario For Hurricane Irma Looks Likely
Forecasts Have Done A Good Job Predicting Irma’s Shifting Path
Trump’s Hardline Immigration Stance Got Him To The White House
Why Is The Most Vulnerable GOP Senator Not Dean Heller?
Trump’s Popularity Has Dipped Most In Red States
Why Hurricane Maria Surprised Forecasters By Getting So Strong So Fast
Democrats Weren’t Always Super Liberal On Immigration
The GOP’s Catch-22 On Obamacare
It’s Week 35 Of Trump’s Presidency. How’s His Approval Rating? [video]
The NFL Protests May Be Unpopular Now, But That Doesn’t Mean They’ll End That Way
Will Alabama Republicans Defy Trump?
The Republican Establishment And The Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day
More Americans Support Aid When Told Puerto Ricans Are U.S. Citizens
How Every NFL Team’s Fans Lean Politically
It’s Week 36. Trump Has Made The NFL A Partisan Issue. [video]
The U.S. Has Never Been So Polarized On Guns
Trump’s Handling Of Hurricane Maria Is Getting Really Bad Marks
It’s Week 37 Of The Trump Presidency. How Has He Handled The Hurricanes? [video]
The Virginia Governor’s Race Is Not A Good Political Barometer
Trump Is Far Less Popular Than The Economy Suggests He Should Be
Trump Again Has The Lowest Approval Rating In Modern Times [video]
The Columbia Lions Are The Best Football Team In NYC
The Politics Of Tax Reform: 101
Calm Down About Those Virginia Polls, Folks
Most People Believe In JFK Conspiracy Theories
How Does Jeff Flake’s Retirement Change The Arizona Senate Race?
Everyone Agrees That Weed Is Great — Except Politicians
What The Last Four Weeks Did To Trump’s Approval Rating
What The Last Four Weeks Did To Trump’s Approval Rating [video]
People Are Skeptical Of The GOP’s Tax Bill. Can Trump Change Their Minds?
Northam Heads Into Virginia Governor’s Race With A Small Lead
9 Key Questions About Roy Moore And The Alabama Senate Race
There’s No Reason To Think Republicans Will Be In Better Shape A Year From Now
Trump’s Low Approval Rating Hurt Republicans On Tuesday [video]
How Roy Moore Could Lose Alabama’s Senate Race
Why McConnell Has So Little Leverage Over Moore In Alabama
If The GOP Wants A More Popular Tax Plan, Minor Tweaks Won’t Be Enough
The Moore Allegations Haven’t Changed How People See Trump [video]
Why Menendez Is Still A Favorite In New Jersey’s Senate Race
Is Roy Moore Losing?
The GOP Tax Cuts Are Even More Unpopular Than Past Tax Hikes
Why Is Roy Moore Back In Front? Time And Trump Are Probably Helping
Sexual Harassment May Be The Only Thing Party Leaders Can Agree On
Doug Jones Is Just A Normal Polling Error Away From A Win In Alabama
Democrats Will Likely Hold Franken’s Seat, But Minnesota’s Not As Blue As It Seems
Shutting Down The Government Over DACA Is A Risky Bet For Democrats
Politics Podcast: The Alabama Election Is Here
Everything You Need To Know About Alabama’s Senate Election
Special Elections So Far Point To A Democratic Wave In 2018
Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not.
The Democrats’ Wave Could Turn Into A Flood
What Harry Got Wrong In 2017
Senator Mitt Romney?
Voters Used To See Moderation In Trump. Not Anymore.
Do Republicans Really Have A Big Turnout Advantage In Midterms?
Americans Don’t Trust Trump On North Korea
How Trump Ranks In Popularity vs. Past Presidents
The Government Shutdown Effect: Big In The Short Term, Small After That
What Women Thought Of Trump Through Year One
Politics Podcast: The Three-Day Shutdown
Ending Gerrymandering Won’t Fix What Ails America
The Media Is Misreading How The Shutdown Blame Game Shook Out
Five Blue States Could Determine Who Controls The House In 2018
Texas Dislikes Trump, But That Doesn’t Mean It Will Go Blue In 2018