Nate Silver (3,929 entries)

Frequently Asked Questions, Last Revised 8/7/08
Frequently Asked Questions, Last Revised 8/7/08
Pollster Ratings v1.0
Summary Results, 3/7/2008
Summary Results, 3/7/2008
A Reality Check on South Dakota?
Still in Beta Test Mode
Regions
FAQ
538 versus Intrade
Moving beyond the Big Three
Plenty of Democrats in Red States
Some “New” North Carolina polls
The Clinton voters who won’t vote for Obama
Pollster Ratings v2.0
New Pennsylvania, Michigan polls are good news for McCain
Carolinas Down, 48 to Go
Does Obama benefit from an active primary campaign?
Swing State Analysis
New Maps
Today’s Polls, 3/15
Beware of (Temporarily) Falling Polls
The Real Comeback Kid: Ralph Nader?
Today’s Polls, 3/16
A Technical Note
The Six Types of Voters
Damage Done?
Today’s Polls, 3/18
An Objective (?) Take on Obama’s Speech
Today’s Polls, 3/19
Obama Retains Electability Advantage, but Both Democrats Below 50%
Wright and the Obamacans
Today’s Polls, 3/21
Today’s Polls, 3/22
Tonight’s Polls, 3/24
Today’s Polls, 3/25
Today’s Polls, 3/26
Schrödinger’s Poll
McCain within 3 of Clinton in California, Connecticut [UPDATED]
And Today’s Other Poll…
McCain’s first target: New Mexico
Today’s Polls: Bad news for both Dems in Virginia
Fivethrityeight.com now twice as good
Today’s Polls, 3/29
Win Percentage Tracker
A Boring Poll, and a Pop Quiz
Today’s Polls, 3/31
Rasmussen, Survey USA, Enthusiasm and Likely Voters
State-by-State Fundraising Numbers
A Game-Changer in Ohio?
The Reverse Bradley Effect: Fact or Fiction?
Site Fixes
Today’s Polls: Great News for Hillary
It’s 3 AM: Time to Fire Your Creative Director
Polls Now Weighted by Sample Size
Today’s Polls, 4/3: A 30,000-foot look at Pennsylvania
Today’s Polls, 4/4
The Clinton Voters who won’t vote for Obama, Part II
Saturday Night Nerdiness
Today’s Polls, 4/6
The Momentumless Primary
Graph(s) of the Day
Today’s Polls, 4/7
Clinton and Education Levels
Barr, the Libertarians and Georgia
Tonight’s Polls, 4/8
African-American turnout in the primaries
The Education Gap, Part II
If 538 were trying to predict the PA primary… [UPDATED]
We know even less than we think (a methodological note)
WNBC/Marist: New York a Swing State?
Makeover
Obama: the Zima-track candidate?
Today’s Polls: Alaska!
Small States, Big Advantage
Contemplating the Unity Bounce
If it worked for Joe Klein…
Today’s Polls, 4/11
Clinton’s Unity Bounce
Regions
Today’s Polls, 4/12
Clinging to Guns
Regions, the resolution
Daily tracking polls show apparently split verdict on Obama
Today’s Polls, 4/14
Michigan versus Ohio (and Pennsylvania)
ARG!
Quinnipiac: ‘Bitter’ having no effect in Pennsylvania’s small towns (updated)
Today’s Polls, 4/15
Pennsylvania Prediction: Clinton to net 12 delegates, 120K popular votes
Three Thoughts on Tonight’s Debate
On the value of the campaign
Today’s Polls, 4/17: Obama takes a hit, with caveat
Dear George: voters don’t care about electability
John McCain: Darling of the East Coast?
Today’s Polls, 4/18
Are Undecideds leaning Clinton in Pennsylvania?
The Other Side of the Undecided Coin
Today’s Polls, 4/20
The Pennsylvania Lottery
It’s the turnout, stupid! [UPDATED]
Today’s Polls, 4/21
The Road Not Taken
Expectations and Realities
Today’s (General Election) Polls, 4/22
Matt Drudge: Drama Queen
Pennsylvania Scorecard
Pennsylvania: Lackadaisical Liveblog
Today’s Polls, 4/23
Math for Donkeys
Overton Window
Today’s Polls, 4/24
Will Clinton get a Keystone Bounce?
Indiana Stragglers (UPDATED)
The Vindictive Clinton Voter, and Other Myths
Today’s Polls, 4/25
This Morning’s Poll, and a Regression Model Makeover
Regression Model Q&A
Is Indiana really more important than North Carolina?
The Road Veers Right
Pollster Ratings v3.0
Call me contrarian, but…
Clinton’s Bounce
Wine States versus Beer States
Today’s Polls, 4/28
Electoral History Charts
One benefit of falling poll numbers…
Pollster Ratings, v3.1
This Morning’s Polls, 4/30
Clinton +2 in North Carolina?
Voters v. Media: a concerning result
Indiana Prediction: Toss-Up, but tilts Clinton; possible 36-36 delegate split
Today’s Polls, 5/1
It’s not all about Obama
ARG Attacks!
Make your own North Carolina prediction
Today’s Polls: Obama and Clinton chasing 50% against McCain
Tarheel Tidbits
Today’s Polls, 5/3
OR-51 for the Win?
CBS/NYT: Both Dems lead McCain by double digits
North Carolina Prediction: Obama by Double Digits
Today’s Polls, 5/5
Late Movement?
Obama’s favorite pollsters (and Clinton’s)
African-American turnout in North Carolina, Part II
Indiana Scorecard
North Carolina Scorecard
The older bird gets the worm?
Obama Margin of Error
Election Night Thread
Quote of the Day
Victory Lap?
The Eighth Reason
Did Clinton Misplay her Ace?
Today’s Polls, 5/7
The Superdelegate Thermostat
Hers if She Wants It?
Today’s Polls, 5/8
Everything you always wanted to know about Obama’s pledged delegate clinching scenarios*
Rasmussen: Obama leads Clinton by 11 since North Carolina victory
Challenge to Dick Bennett of American Research Group
Today’s Polls, 5/10
Does Clinton really lead in Swing Districts?
What are they waiting for?
Black, Youth and Latino Turnout, and Obama’s Electoral Map
Tonight’s Polls, 5/11
Q&A on Minority Turnout Model
Five Reasons why 2012 is a No-Go for Clinton
Today’s Polls, 5/12
Would Obama win the California primary today?
West Virginia Preview: Clinton by 39 points, 105,000 votes
Back-of-envelope
Clinton wins West Virginia
Two Wrongs make a Right?
The Early Bird still got the Worm
Hillary’s Oregon Problem
A landmark, of sorts
Multiple Choice
Delegate Scenarios, Edwards Edition
Among working class whites, Clinton kicked Edwards’ ass too
Today’s Polls, 5/15
But Dukakis won West Virginia
Meanwhile, on Planet Obama…
Gay rights issues present opportunities for both candidates
Today’s Polls, 5/16
War Games?
Today’s Polls, 5/17
Hope for Hillary in Oregon?
Oregon: Swing State or latte-drinking, Prius-driving lesbian commune?
Today’s Polls, 5/18
Like Kissing Your Sister
Oregon Projection: Obama by 13
Today’s Polls, 5/19
Clinton is blowing the popular vote argument
Revised Oregon turnout estimate
Kentucky Projection: Clinton by 19
RSS Feed
Today’s Polls, 5/20
It seems trivial now…
Move along, nothing to see here
Kentucky/Oregon Primary Night Thread
Primary Night Thread II (Oregon)
Kentucky/Oregon wrap-up
Today’s Polls, 5/21 [UPDATED]
Wish List
Three-Way?
National Review solves Fermat’s Last Theorem
Can Obama Clinch on June 3rd?
Today’s Polls, 5/22
Today’s Polls II, 5/22
It’s rare to tap the #2
Today’s Polls, 5/23
Party Identification in Ohio
Michigan: What would have happened?
Today’s Polls, 5/24
Today’s Polls, 5/25
The odds of a recount
McCain-Jindal?
Today’s Polls, 5/26
Limited Sample Size Department
The Libertarians’ Big Tent
Adventures in Lannyland
Defeat with Dignity?
Today’s Polls, 5/27
Pollster Ratings, v3.1.1
Today’s Polls, 5/28
A Senior Surge?
Incoming!
Instant Coffee
Today’s Polls, 5/29
Six versus half-a-dozen
Turnout in Puerto Rico
No, I’m not Chuck Todd
Today’s Polls, 5/30
The choose-your-own-adventure primary
“A fair reflection of a flawed primary”
Obama’s new magic number: 63? 64?
Michigan’s turnout
Etc. Etc. Etc.
Tim Russert
Today's Polls, 6/12
Tonight's Polls, 6/10
Today’s Polls, 6/1
Exit poll hints at a big Clinton win in Puerto Rico?
Now It Matters
Clinton wins Puerto Rico
Popular Vote Scenario Tester, Online Version [UPDATED]
Fear of the Unknown
On which reputations are made (or lost)
Today’s Polls, 6/2
Arguing against the polls
South Dakota Projection: Obama by 5
Montana Projection: Obama by 18
BREAKING: Hillary concedes that she conceded to concede…
Midday Notes
Exit poll teasers (updated)
Today’s Polls, 6/3
Grand Finale Night Liveblog
Grand Finale Night Liveblog II: Montana and Obama’s Speech
Two Mediocrities?
McCain’s strategy: force a gaffe?
Final Popular Vote Estimates: Obama wins 7 of 8 Michigan scenarios
Hillary’s Future (at 538)
National Polls
A Call for Pollster-Poblano Unity
Today’s Polls, 6/5
A New Map
Pardon the Dust
Today’s Polls, 6/6
Some signs of a unity bounce
Hillary Clinton: Czarina of Recounts?
Clinton-McCain archive
How the Electoral College Hurts the GOP
Briefings, Branding, and Bravado
Can Nader help Obama?
Today’s Polls, 6/8
An Attempt at Senate Race Rankings
Today’s Polls, 6/9
The best move of the general election season (so far)
Liberal-Conservative Rankings Done Right
Homework Assignment
Candidate Health Report: John McCain
Tonight’s Polls, 6/10
Today’s Polls, 6/11
51,199,463,116,367 (Shout-Outs)
‘Zona Defense
Today’s Polls, 6/12
Carne Asada con Obama
World’s Simplest Election Projection
Etc. Etc. Etc.
Today’s Polls, 6/13
CNN Video
Tim Russert
McCain’s Atheist Problem?
Major Update Coming
We don’t know as much as we think (Big Change #1)
We know more than we think (Big Change #2)
A Refinement to the Adjustment, Part I
A Refinement to the Adjustment, Part II
Weekend Poll Catchup
Popular Vote v Electoral Vote
Today’s Polls, 6/16
Tea Leaves
Guess Who’s Blogging for the National Press Club?
Today’s Polls, 6/17
Trendline now calculated from daily numbers
Defining a “Must Win” (Technical)
Today’s Polls, 6/18
Obama’s bounce in state polling
Afternoon Polling Update, 6/18
Does Obama still have an Appalachia Problem?
Why Obama should visit Alaska, Part II
Coming Soon
Today’s Polls, 6/19
Evening Polling Update, 6/19
How (not) to win over Clinton supporters
Today’s Polls, 6/20
Swing District Dems voted for FISA Compromise
Obama’s bounce in state vs national polls
Today’s Polls, 6/21
Why Obama isn’t like Dukakis
Today’s Polls, 6/22
The Win Percentage Tracker Returns
Today’s Polls, 6/23
Is Charlie Black Right?
Keep an eye on SC-Sen
Liberal-Conservative Scores for Senate Candidates
Today’s Polls, 6/24
Moving Beyond the Seat Count
Today’s Polls, 6/25
Should McCain just embrace the bad polls?
Which Candidate has a Base Problem?
Today’s Polls, 6/26
Should we be discounting Obama’s lead? The next and hopefully last Big Change.
Ebb and Flow
Wrong Track
Right Track
Today’s Polls, 6/27
Bob Barr Not Going Viral
Construction Season Over (Technical)
If the Election WERE Held Today…
The Electric Minor Political Scandal Acid Test
Today’s Polls, 6/29
Is Obama Becoming ‘Generic Democrat’?
Senate Polling Permathread (Updated 6/30)
Senate Projections are Live
Internal Polls
Today’s Polls, 6/30
Quibble
Senate Projections Methodology Primer, Part I
Today’s Polls, 7/1
Lanny Davis: Still a Hack After All These Years
And Here I Thought John Kerry Lost…
Irresponsible Journalism Alert
A Small Change
Today’s Polls, 7/2
Steve Schmidt Gets It
Something You Probably Never Expected to See
Speaking of North Dakota…
Today’s Polls, 7/3
Flip-Flopping: As American as Apple Pie
Return on Investment
No Fireworks, But A Few Small Changes
Why are New Jersey Politicians Always Rich? An Analysis of TV Markets.
Today’s Polls, 7/5
Nuclear Deterrence?
State Similarity Scores
Webb Out; Who’s Up? [UPDATED]
The Virtue of Vetting
Senate Polling Weekly Update, 7/7
Has Obama Won the Center? [UPDATED]
Shadow Senate Race?
Zogby Interactive Data Dump
Quibble
Leaners
Today’s Polls, 7/9
Popular Vote v Electoral Vote, Part II
Better to be Lucky…
Tipping Point v2.0
Today’s Polls, 7/10
The Other Advantage of Opting Out
Obama is the New…
Today’s Polls, 7/11
This Post is Already Written
Today’s Polls, 7/12
Running (Mate) to the Center [UPDATED]
Republican VP Speculation Thread
Today’s Polls, 7/13
When Memes Collide
Travel Delays / Open Thread
Today’s Polls, 7/14
Equal Time
Today’s Polls, 7/15
Yesterday’s Polls, 7/16
Today’s Polls, 7/17
Today’s Polls, 7/18
It’s A Dry Heat
Cellphones (and Open Thread)
Bob Barr Meets The Netroots
Obama and Austin, Take II
Obama and al-Maliki
Clinton’s Debt Reveals Flaws in Campaign Finance Laws
Senate Polling Weekly Update, 7/20
Zugzwang
Today’s Polls, 7/21
Did the New Yorker Get Snubbed from the Obama Campaign Plane?
Dueling Ohio Polls
The Cellphone Problem, Revisited
Today’s Polls, 7/22
Raising Kaine?
Do High Gas Prices Help Obama?
Today’s Polls, 7/23
Charts Updated (Finally)
The Reverse Nader Effect
Today’s Polls, 7/24
What Barack Obama Needs to Win
Lessons from the Overseas Trip
McCain Ups the Ante
Today’s Polls, 7/25
Name … that … Subgroup!
Today’s Polls, 7/26
The Sleeper Issue of 2008: Beer
The Subliminal Power of Obama’s Berlin Speech
Today’s Polls and Miscellaneous Thoughts, 7/27
Romney’s Effect On the Map
Senate Polling Weekly Update, 7/28
A Short List of Short Lists [UPDATED]
About that McCain +4
Comments Now Require Registration
Tom and Huckabee
AK-Sen: Ted Stevens Indicted
Today’s Polls, 7/29
VP Contenders by the Numbers
Obama on Offense in Florida
Barack is, like, *so* popular!
Today’s Polls, 7/30
Sebelius Shell Game?
My Least Favorite Argument
Today’s Polls (AM Edition), 7/31
Today’s Polls (PM Edition), 7/31
Opportunity Cost
Obama Outperforming Kerry Among Nearly All Demographics
Yesterday’s Polls (8/1 Catchup)
Today’s Polls, 8/3
McCain Just Says No to Indiana
Is Obama Underachieving?
Should Obama Have Asked for More Debates?
Today’s Polls, 8/4
Evan Bayh: Latent Liberal?
Senate Polling Weekly Update, 8/5
Today’s Polls, 8/5 (Procrastinator Edition)
FAQ Updated
Is GA-Sen in Play?
The Oprah Effect, Revisited
Today’s Polls, 8/6
ABC Dealt Out Of Presidential Debates
The Gang of 10: Obama’s Checkmate?
On Likely Voters and the Long Tail
Today’s Polls, 8/7
Bubba By Numbers
A Perspective on Mazen Asbahi
Media Alert
Today’s Polls, 08/08/08
538 on Countdown
Obama Leads Better Than 3:1 in Field Offices
The Grinch Who Stole The Olympics
Obama and the Youth Vote
The Persistent Myth of the Bradley Effect
Why Howard Wolfson is Out of a Job
The Georgia Conflict and the Case for Clark
Today’s Polls, 8/11
Black Vote Was Invisible To Penn
Senate Polling Weekly Update, 8/12
Today’s Polls, 8/12
Warner Will Be Dems’ Keynoter [UPDATED]
Road to 270: Indiana
Today’s Polls, 8/13
Bayhdenkabelius
Sending Out an S.O.S.
How McCain is Winning on the Economy
Today’s Polls, 8/14
What a Convention Bounce Looks Like
Today’s Polls, 8/15
Friday Afternoon Leftovers
Today’s Polls, 8/16
Sister Kissing Update
Saddleback
Democratic VP Buyer’s Guide
Pastor Warren Contradicts Self on ‘Cone of Silence’
On Obama-Clinton
Did McCain’s Campaign Just Confirm Andrea Mitchell’s Reporting?
Late Nite Polls, 8/17
Today’s Polls, 8/18
Yet Another Veep Thread: Nobody Knows Anything
Yet Another Conegate Thread
Do Voters Like Joe Biden?
Online Chat at 1 PM Eastern / 12 PM Central
Fox’s Pro-Choice Poison Pill?
Today’s Polls, 8/19
Biden: A New Trick for Old Fogeys
I’m Hearing…
Obama-SebeliBus?
McCain Now Winning Small Majority of Simulations
Today’s Polls, 8/20
The Case for Hillary
Unabashed Media Whoring (and Open Thread)
Democrats Will Be Watching Denver (And We'll Be There)
Today’s Polls, 8/21
Something Was The Matter With Kansas (Technical)
The One Tea Leaf Worth Reading
Senate Polling Weekly Update, 8/22
Today’s Polls, 8/22
It’s Official: Obama Picks Biden
Can Biden Out-Hillary Hillary?
Today’s Polls, 8/23
“Clear-Eyed Pragmatist”: The Obama Brand Has Come Full-Circle
Is There a Clinton Backlash? How About A Backlash Backlash?
Today’s Polls, 8/24
CNN Poll Suggests Trouble for Obama, But Omits Proper Context
House Effects In Da House
Today’s Polls, 8/25
Should Obama Expect a Big Convention Bounce?
Today (DNC Day 2)
Today’s Polls, 8/26
The NASCAR Dad of 2008? It Might be The Perot Voter.
Live from Denver, It’s Tuesday Night!
Live from Denver, It’s Hillary Clinton! (DNC thread #2)
Barack Obama Officially Becomes Democratic Nominee for Presdient
Today’s Polls, 8/27
DNC Day 3: Live Twitter Thread
Gallup Shows an Initial Convention Bounce for Obama
Live from Invesco: From the Cheap Seats
Live from Invesco: From the Press Box
Source: It’s Not Pawlenty
…and Speaking of Head-Fakes
Multiple Reports: Palin is VP Nominee
Palin VP Rollout Liveblog
Palin: It’s Not Really About Experience
Sarah Palin Thoughts, Revised and Extended
Today’s Polls, 8/29
Women View Palin More Skeptically than Men
Today’s Polls, 8/30
Today’s Polls, 8/31
Gustav Could Be Boon to GOP
The Dow Rebounds
Today's Polls, 9/20
Open Discussion: The Convention Bounce Adjustment
Sarah Palin: Compassionate Conservative?
What's Wrong With This Sentence?
What’s Wrong With This Sentence?
Today’s Polls, 9/1
The Essential Difference
Today’s Polls, 9/2
Senate Polling Weekly Update, 9/2
Palin’s Goal Tonight: No Potatoe
Today’s Polls, 9/3
In Alaska, Everyone’s An Oil Baron
Guess Who’s a Celebrity Now?
Palin’s Overreach
Palin’s Speech: Second Thoughts
Cognitive Dissonance
The Next Next President
Today’s Polls, 9/4
SurveyUSA: Palin’s Speech Comparable to Obama’s
Post-Convention Six-Pack
Crackin’ a Trackin’ Poll
Palin, Biden Less Popular than Cheney
Today’s Polls, 9/5
Today’s Polls, 9/6
Today’s Polls, 9/7
Patience, Poll-Watchers
Cracking a Tracking Poll: Theory and Practice
Obama Needs Better Ads
Response Bias and the Shy Tory Factor
Today’s Polls, 9/8
Did McCain Really Get the Bigger Bounce?
First Look At The New Electoral Map
Bonus Polling Update, 9/8
The Mommy Quotient
Ron Paul To Appear on Montana Ballot
Today’s Polls, 9/9
Are Pollsters Oversampling Republicans?
Is It Really About Race? Some Evidence from North Carolina.
Lipstick
‘Lipstick’ Ad Doesn’t Move Focus Group’s Votes
Today’s Polls, 9/10
The Road To McCain Runs Through Palin
What’s the Matter with Michigan?
Pollopoly
Today’s Polls, 9/11
Today’s Polls, 9/12
No Actual Bearcats Were Harmed in the Making of This Post
The Media Has Been Thrown Off Its Game
Today’s Polls, 9/13
Was Obama’s 50 22-State Strategy a Mistake?
Today’s Polls, 9/14
Nightmare on Wall Street?
Today’s Polls, 9/15
Palin’s Favorability Numbers Eroding
Today’s Polls, 9/16
Morning Musings
Today’s Polls, 9/17
State of the Race: Is McCain In Trouble?
Colorado Rates as Most Important State
Obama Pulls Ahead in Electoral College Projection
Today’s Polls, 9/18: Obama Regains the Lead
Outside-the-Box Ad Moves Voter Sentiment
The Dow Rebounds
12th Amendment Update: Tie Probability Continues to Increase
Bad Math and the Bradley Effect
The Dow Rebounds
Today’s Polls, 9/19
Estimating the Cellphone Effect: 2.8 2.2 Points
Today’s Polls, 9/20
On Race-Based Voting
Senate Polling Update, 9/20
On the Road: Durango/Cortez, Colorado
BREAKING: Obama Campaign Organizers Trying To Win Election Instead of Get You Yard Signs
Today’s Polls, 9/21
Allocating the Undecideds
RCP and the R2K Tracking Poll
Today’s Polls, 9/22
The Debates: Somebody’s Wrong
Debates May Not Be Decisive After All
Oops
Today’s Polls, 9/23
Intrade Betting is Suspicious
Today’s Polls, 9/24
Remains Of The Day
AM Trackers Suggest Poor Reaction to McCain Announcement
Today’s Polls, 9/25
Selzer & Co: Correction on Cellphones
McCain Doubling Down on Debate?
Ann Selzer on Youth & Minority Turnout
Today’s Polls, 9/26
McCain’s Mistake?
Debate Goals
Why Voters Thought Obama Won
How You Know It’s Crunch Time
Today’s Polls, 9/27
Senate Projections, 9/28
Today’s Polls, 9/28
McCain Is Stuck With Palin
News Accounts May Overstate Public Opposition to Bailout
Big Media Me
Swing District Congressmen Doomed Bailout
More Bailout Thoughts
Pelosi Tips the Scales?
Today’s Polls, 9/29
What’s Wrong With the Battleground Poll?
More Media
Today’s Polls, 9/30
What Obama Accomplished at the Debate
Today’s Polls, 10/1
Washington Post Chat Starts Momentarily
Debategate
Nate with Dan Rather, and Keith Olbermann
In Contrast to House, Few Signs of Electoral Politics in Senate Bailout Vote
Real Credibility Problems
RCP Follow-Up
Technical Difficulties…
Today’s Polls, 10/2
Post-VP Debate Thoughts
McCain and Michigan
VP Debate a Ratings Winner
Today’s Polls, 10/3
Dueling Minnesota Polls
Today’s Polls, 10/4
Senate Polling Update, 10/4
Why It (Probably) Won’t Work
Today’s Polls, 10/5
In Georgia, Small Improvements in Black Voter Participation May Make Big Difference
What’s Different About This Map?
Today’s Polls, 10/6
Today’s Polls, 10/7
What State Do You Want to See Polled?
Tonight
Post-Debate Thoughts, or Lack Thereof
What is Obama’s Ceiling?
Today’s Polls, 10/8
21-2
Uncommitteds and Persuadables in Historical Perspective
Senate Projections, 10/9
Today’s Polls, 10/9
Why You Don’t Bluff
Ayers Attacks Piquing Curiosity, But Perhaps Little Else
Debate May Have Helped Obama
Guest Column: Will Bin Laden Strike Again?
Today’s Polls, 10/10
Does McCain Have Cooties?
Today’s Polls, 10/11
Did McCain Just Walk Into a Trap?
Are McCain’s Ads “Dangerous”?
Patience
Today’s Polls, 10/12
Another Way to Look at McCain’s Odds
Is Drudge Priming a McCain “Reboot” Narrative?
Mini Polling Update
If The Bradley Effect is Gone, What Happened To It?
Today’s Polls, 10/13
Voter Registration in North Carolina
Senate Projections, 10/14
CBS/NYT Poll Preempt
Today’s Polls, 10/14
Obama Dominating Among Early Voters in Five Swing States
Today’s Polls, 10/15
Where McCain Lost It
Today’s Polls, 10/16
Scrap the Squigglys
Scrap the Squigglys
Bad Spin Watch: Drudge Touts Weeks-Old, Web-Based Poll
Busy, Busy, Busy
Today’s Polls, 10/17
Today’s Polls, 10/18
“Real” America Looks Different to Palin, Obama
General Powell Endorses Obama
Today’s Polls, 10/19
Senate Projections, 10/20
Exceptionally Tacky Omnibus Apology
The Wikipedian Candidate
Today’s Polls, 10/20
Sorry, Jim, the PUMAs are Dead
POLL SHOCK: 51 OBAMA, 49 MCCAIN WITH LIKELY TODDLERS
Tracking Poll Primer
Today’s Polls, 10/21
McCain Brings Hope to Pennsylvania
Must Reads
The Bradley Effect, Revisited
Some Likely Voter Models are Suspect
Today’s Polls, 10/22
538 Goes Mobile
AM Polls Show Surprisingly Large Leads for Obama
Prop 8 a Toss-Up
Obama Passes The Rove Threshold?
What’s Wrong With This Picture? (a.k.a. Nate the Poll Nazi Strikes Again)
Today’s Polls, 10/23: McCain on Life Support
Senate Projections, 10/24
How The West Wasn’t Won
The Number That Explains It All
Today’s Polls, 10/24
Road to 270: New Jersey
McCain’s 10-Day Plan
Today’s Polls, 10/25
A Pollster Responds
538 on The Colbert Report
Today’s Polls, 10/26
Bradley Effect? Or Elephant Effect?
Yes, Virginia, You Are Obama’s Firewall
Ted Stevens Found Guilty on All Counts
Today’s Polls, 10/27
What Would ‘Tightening’ Look Like?
The Weather
Senate Projections, Baked Alaska Edition
1-in-10,000,000
Nerds Gone Wild!
Today’s Polls, 10/28
The Black Turnout Surge, Already In Progress
The Undecideds
In Oregon, Turnout is Down, But Especially in Red Counties
Florida Flashback
The Myth of the 'Lag'
The Myth of the ‘Lag’
Obamarama Liveblog
Today’s Polls, 10/29
Road to 270: Illinois
Are the Polls Lowballing Jim Martin (GA-Sen)?
Anatomy of a Polling Disaster
Election Night Preview with Dan Rather
Today’s Polls, 10/30
Field Poll Shows Close Call on Gay Marriage Ban
Senate Projections, 10/31
McCain's Mountain of a Problem
McCain’s Mountain of a Problem
Irrational Exuberance in Arizona?
Quick Notes
Today’s Polls, 10/31
Trick or Treat
Pennsylvania Sanity Check
Senate Projections, 11/1
Technical Note
Today’s Polls, 11/1
On Pennsylvania Being “In Play”
Road to 270: Michigan
House Effects in Action
Today’s Polls, 11/2: Afternoon Edition
Google Traffic Suggests McCain Not Grabbing Voters’ Attention
What A McCain Win Looks Like…
538 RSS Feed Widget
The Cellphone Effect, Continued
Reassurance for Dems in NBC/WSJ Survey
Today’s Polls, 3 AM Edition (11/3)
Coming Attractions
Election Night Viewers’ Guide
National Polls Magically Converge!
Obama Marches Toward Victory
Today’s Polls, 11/3 (PM Edition)
Is Dixville Notch Predictive?
FINAL Senate Projection, 11/4: 7-8 Democratic Pickups Likely
Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls
2,077,765
Today’s Polls and Final Election Projection: Obama 349, McCain 189
What Will We Know by 7 PM?
Election Night Thread, 6:00 PM
Indiana…
Indiana II…
8:15 PM Update
AP Calls New Hampshire
Meta
Virginia…
Obama to Become Next President
10:06 PM Update
Republicans Likely to Hold MS-Sen, KY-Sen
3??
Omaha
AP Calls Florida for Obama
Wow
Outstanding States
A Few Notes From the National Exit Poll
In Nation’s Capital, Pandemonium After Obama Victory
The Popular Vote
Site Problems
What In The Hell Happened in Alaska?
Obama Outperforms Kerry Among Virtually All Demographics
Obama Likely to Win Omaha Electoral Vote
Obama Wins Omaha, NE Electoral Vote; Final Tally Looks to be 365-173
Uncounted Votes May Push Begich Past Stevens
The Contact Gap: Proof of the Importance of the Ground Game?
Big City Barack
Obama’s Electoral Cushion
2010 Senate Rankings, Part I: Races #21-#35
Franken’s Odds of Winning Recount May Be Long — or Short
Whistling Past Bubba
More Minnesota Madness
Minnesota Recount: Number of Discrepancies May Be Low
Prop 8 Myths
Ballot Design Quiz
Was 2008 A Realigning Election? Ask Me In Eight Years.
Is Jackson Jr. Illinois’ Choice?
Stevens’ Lead Shrinks to 971 Votes, With Many Yet to be Counted
Georgia Runoff Will Be Tough on Pollsters
A Few More Hillary Hypotheticals
Dartmouth Study: Minnesota Undervotes Should Favor Franken
Is Secretary of State a Stepping Stone?
What’s Holding Up Missouri?
A Few Notes on the Media
Why The Networks Haven’t Called Missouri
For Obama, Will Familiarity Erode Contempt?
Zogby Engages in Apparent Push Polling for Right-Wing Website
Dean Defends Lieberman Decision, Speaks of “Mandate for Reconciliation”
An Interview with John Ziegler on the Zogby “Push Poll”
Dear Democrats: If You Must Blame, Blame Obama
[UPDATED] In Minnesota Recount, Both Candidates are Losers Thus Far
[UPDATED] On First Day of Recount, Franken Gains Net of 43 Votes on Coleman
Napolitano Reportedly Picked for Homeland Security, Casting Doubt on Potential Senate Run
Did Talk Radio Kill Conservatism?
Minnesota: Is Franken Being Too Nice?
Friday eCommerce Interlude
The Final Words (For Now) on Zieglergate
Ballot Challenges On Rise in Minnesota
Coleman’s Lead Down to 120 as Challenges Skyrocket
The Ghosts of 1993
Amid Epidemic of Challenges, Coleman Appears to Expand Lead
Projection: Franken to Win Recount by 27 Votes
Illinois: Let the People Decide
Coleman Challenges Increasing Exponentially
Dubious in Delaware
[UPDATED] State Pegs Coleman Lead at 172 Votes; Challenges Increase for Fourth Straight Day
Minnesota Challenged Ballot Primer
Georgia: Martin Stuck in Neutral?
Obama’s Agenda & The Difference Between Tactics & Strategy
Mini-Sota Update, Day 6
Obama Popular Vote Margin Largest Ever for Non-Incumbent
Minnesota Canvassing Board Punts on Rejected Absentee Ballots
Mini-Sota Update, Day #7
The Population and the Popular Vote
Minnesota Challenged Ballot Examples
2010 Senate Rankings, Part II: Races #11-#20
The Blagojevich Fallout
Statistical Models Now Show Coleman as Slight Favorite
Clinton’s Appointment Triggers Game of Electoral Chairs in New York
Franken's Good Day Shifts Odds on Recount
Franken’s Good Day Shifts Odds on Recount
Saxby Shows Republicans The Way Forward?
Did Mel Martinez Just Do the GOP a Favor?
Missing Ballots in Minneapolis?
Who Are The Swing Senators?
Fridays with Ziegler
Quick Thoughts from Kansas
Minnesota May Be Heading Toward Resolution — In Court
2010 Senate Rankings, Revised and Extended
58 Better Than 59? (A Probably Stupid Theory)
The Wrong Ads and the Wright One
The Blagojevich Fallout
What, No Oprah?
Illinois: What Happens Next
Senate Might Not Have Authority to Reject Blago Appointment
What Jake Tapper Doesn’t Know About What Obama Knew
Dems’ Generic Ballot Advantage Dwindling
What Does Harry Reid Want?
Appointed Senators Rarely Win Re-Election
Minnesota Canvassing Board Sides with Franken on Two Key Issues, Sending Coleman to Court
Minnesota Canvassing Board Sides with Franken on Two Key Issues, Sending Coleman to Court
Obama Approval Ratings Not Dented by Blagojevich Scandal
The Auto Bailout Vote: a Preview of Coming Attractions?
Bayh’s Blue Dogs: Bane or Boon?
On Making Mitch McConnell Wet His Pants
Colorado's Salazar To Head Interior, Creating Another Vacancy for Democrats
Colorado’s Salazar To Head Interior, Creating Another Vacancy for Democrats
Are the Republicans Still a National Party?
Coleman v. Minnesota Canvassing Board
NY-Sen: Where’s Larry King When You Need Him?
Hold Your Horses, Minnesota
88 Reasons Not to Move to New York
Brett Favre Beats Lizard People
Minnesota Lunchtime Update: It’s Gonna Be Close
In Minnesota, Six Inches of Confusion
Franken Appears Likely to Lead After Challenge Phase
Coleman Sues on Duplicate Ballot Claim, Seeking to Prevent Certification of Recount
Franken is Winning, and Coleman Knows It
Colorado: Denver Mayor More Electable than Blue Dogs?
Franken Claims to Have Lead of 35-50 Votes
In Employee Free Choice Act, a Numbers Game for Labor
Mental Recession?
Franken Maintains 48-Vote Lead
Fox News Finds Typo, Blames Liberal Conspiracy
Franken to Coleman: Where’s The Beef?
A Passing Thought On Rick Warren
Like Smaller Government? How About 98 Senators?
Mommy, What’s an Environmentalist?
Supremes Deny Coleman on Duplicate Ballots
A Day Without Politics
Red States Gaining Ground, but Migration Slowing Down
On Transition Website, Obama Promises More to Gay Community
Kennedy Struggling To Win Over Key Demographic: Women
Mapping the New Congress
You Are A Republican! A Socratic Dialogue on the Stimulus Bill
Coleman Not in Giving Mood on Absentees
On The Importance of the Middle Class: Lessons of the Housing Bust
Obama FTW
Blago Will Try To Seat Senator, But Reid Objects
Reid Has Few Ways to Block Burris Appointment
Franken May Be Ceding Ground on Absentee Ballots
Reid’s Constitutional Argument on Burris
More Evidence on Middle-Class Belt Tightening
Mapping the New Senate
More Reading on Burris, and Another Attempt at Legal Analysis
Pick Your Poison, Arlen
Bennet, Denver Schools Chief, Reportedly Chosen as Colorado’s Next Senator
In Minnesota, End of the Beginning Starts Today
Is Jesse Jackson Jr. Electable?
Franken Jumps Out to 225-Vote Lead on Strength of Absentee Ballots
Can Franken Give Burris His Daily Affirmation?
Tim Kaine Reportedly To Head DNC
Why Are There No Black Senators?
Did the Wall Street Journal Fire their Fact-Checkers?
The Good News for Coleman…
Where’s the Roland Burris Poll?
Be Careful Where You Get Your Stimulus
Party Like It’s 538!
Most Americans Oppose Seating Burris, But Reid’s Options are Few
Senate Rankings, January 2009 Edition
Palin v. Murkowski Cold War Heating Up? Polls Show Contradictory Results.
Shameless Self-Promotion
On Harry’s Hindsight
What Are the Chances of a Depression?
Missouri’s Bond Will Retire, Creating Showdown in Show-Me State
On Stimulus, It’s Easy Being Green
Daddy, Where Do Senators Come From?
Blago Impeached; Tide Turning (Again) on Burris?
Obama’s Price is Right Negotiating Strategy?
Obama’s Indifference on Tax Cuts
Intellectual Dishonesty (Gasp!) from a Conservative Economist
Counties to Coleman: What Part of ‘No’ Didn’t You Understand?
Is There a Serious Conservative Argument Against the Stimulus?
Should the Democrats Fear Rob Portman?
Roland Burris is My Senator
Do Retiring Republicans Mellow Out?
Palin’s Popularity Pickle
What’s David Paterson Waiting For?
Signs of Democratic Coattails in SCHIP Vote?
A Webpage Someone Else Should Start…
History May — or May Not — Judge Bush More Kindly
Have Republicans Lost Their Way on Taxes?
Is Coleman’s Goal a Do-Over?
Is Tom Coburn a Closet Progressive?
Barack Obama: The First Urban President?
Obama: Highest Initial Approval For Elected President?
FiveThirtyEight Hits Washington
A Proud Moment for America
Flavor of the Day
Shades of Roosevelt in Obama’s Address
A Brief Comment on the 50-State Strategy
Did Caroline Ever Really Want It?
What is Coleman Fighting For?
Progressive Democrats Vote for Bailout; Blue Dogs Don’t
Is Kennedy’s Loss Conservatives’ Gain?
Obama: More Political Capital Than Reagan?
Feingold Introduces 28th Amendment
Smarter than the Average Bears?
Minnesota Recount Trial Begins Momentarily
So Just Who Did Vote For The Bailout?
Alabama ♥s Obama
Time To Give Up on “Bipartisan” Stimulus?
Fili-Buster Watch
Just Five Red States Left?
BAM! POP! POW! House Debates Stimulus Bill
Stimulus Passes House With NO Republican Support — Zip, Zilch, Nada
For House Republicans, Zero is the Loneliest Number
The Republican Death Spiral
The Republican Death Spiral, in Graphic Form
Should Democrats Beware Republicans Bearing Gifts?
Could Roland Burris Be Re-Elected?
For Democrats, Best Choice May be a Republican
Michael Steele’s Got Game
A Thousand Little Pieces
Introducing...
re: Mortgage Bailout
Do the Republicans Have the Votes for a Stimulus Filibuster?
The Most Powerful Women in America
The Stimulus: Still Popular After All These Weeks
Absentee Ballots Unlikely to Save Coleman
The Paradox of Political Capital
The Proliferation of “Pork”
In This Corner, Sarah Palin…
On Stimulus, Democrats Beating GOP On Party Unity
In Declining Approval Ratings, Lessons for Obama
Senate Rankings, February 2009 Edition
Should Obama Have Asked For More?
A [Bleeping] Valuable Thing
Did a Four-Letter Word Save the Stimulus?
Stimulus Compromise Overcomes Senate Filibuster, 61-36
One-Two-Three-Four: What is Bipartisanship Good For?
Why We’re Probably in For a Long Recession
Taking Louisiana By Storm?
Give Geithner a Break
Obama Sells Stimulus; People Buy
A Thousand Little Pieces
The Political Specter-um
Republican Governor Panders on Gay Rights
The Two Progressivisms
George F. Will Takes on Science, Loses Credibility
The Real Roland Burris Question
Will Omitted Key Context in Ice Age Quote
Sound and Fury, Signifying — What, Exactly?
The Clinton Economic Record and Rising Tides
IL-05: Feigenholtz Looks Like Favorite in Emanuel’s Old District
Reality Check: Republicans Had No Intention of Compromise on Stimulus
Things I Think We Think We Know About the Banking Crisis…
For Entertainment Purposes Only
BREAKING: Beer No Longer Recession-Proof
re: Mortgage Bailout
Senate Rankings Interim Update
Land of a Thousand Liebermans
Heroes and Goats
Sun Rises, Market Falls
Americans Growing Kinder to Bud
Oscars Liveblog
Some Post-Oscar Thoughts on Forecasting
Introducing…
A Starry-Eyed Look at the 2012 Republican Field
Steele’s Idle Threat
Jindal Versus the Volcano
FiveThirty … Nine?
IL-05: Rahm's Middle Finger
IL-05: Rahm’s Middle Finger
Democrat Murphy Now Favored in NY-20 Special Election?
Gold(farb) Star for Effort
Technical Question
The Bonus Tax is Dead; Long Live the Bonus Tax
This is Not a Liveblog
re: Minnesota
Is Jindal’s Demise Gingrich’s Gain?
Snow Day
The Manic-Depressive Market
IL-05: Quigley Appears Headed for Congress
Predicting What You Already Knew
re: Minnesota
Rush is the Least of the Republicans’ Problems
When Will Voters Blame Obama?
What the Stock Market Really Thinks About the Economy
Hoping He Fails?
Senate Rankings, March 2009 Edition
Dow 36,000 Guy Accuses Obama of Sabotaging Economy
Do Americans Want to Nationalize the Banks?
How’s He Doing?
The Missing $1,000,000 Tax Bracket
The Life and Times of EFCA, Part I
A Nation Neither United Nor Divided
The Best Argument You’ll Read for Bank “Nationalization”
Americans Losing Their Faith in Faith ... And Everything Else
Americans Losing Their Faith in Faith … And Everything Else
Yes, Obama’s Approval Ratings Are Declining. What Did You Expect?
Gold(farb) Star for Effort
Technical Question
Why Was AIG’s Stock Up 66% Today?
EFCA’s Backers Still Have Work To Do
The New Terri Schiavo?
AIG: How a Meme Spreads
NASDAQ Now Up Under Obama Presidency
Cherry-Picker-in-Chief
Why AIG Paid the “Bonuses”
NCAA Hoops Projections
GOP Leadership Splits As Bailout Tax Passes House
Throw Out Baby, Bail Out Bathwater
Health Care > Environment? It’s the Economy, Stupid.
Presidential Results by Congressional District
Is the AIG Bonus Blowout Hurting Obama?
The Stock Market Rally and the Geithner Plan
Generic Ballot Blues
The Mortgage Monster and the Blame Game
The Worst Pollster in the World Strikes Again
This is Not a Liveblog
The Bonus Tax is Dead; Long Live the Bonus Tax
In Defense of Vijay, The Wall Street Banker
The Right Way to Fix Wall Street’s Pay
A Good Time To Die?
The Real Republican Road to Recovery
Democrat Murphy Now Favored in NY-20 Special Election?
Why Is Dianne Feinstein Stiffing Labor?
Why Is Dianne Feinstein Stiffing Labor?
FiveThirtyEight Joins East Coast Media Elite
FiveThirtyEight Joins East Coast Media Elite
No Electoral College in 2012?
No Electoral College in 2012?
GM’s Problems are 50 Years in the Making
What the NY-20 “Tie” Means
Should the Democrats Primary Chris Dodd?
Revisionist History in NY-20
Will Iowans Uphold Gay Marriage?
Why Marijuana Legalization is Gaining Momentum
Whigs, Federalists Strongly Differ on Support for Obama
Government Spending, Equality and Development
Irrationality versus Naivete
NY-20: Absentee Ballot Distribution Appears to Favor Murphy (D)
The Pick-Your-Poison Paradox
Gay Marriage in the District: Danger Will (and Steve) Robinson?
Why I’ve Been Ignoring the Minnesota Recount
Fact and Fiction on Gay Marriage Polling
The Have-Nots Aren’t Having It
Senate Rankings, April 2009 Edition
Do Blue State Have Higher Unemployment Rates?
What Would a “Bipartisan” Obama Look Like? (Hint: A Lot Like the One We’re Seeing)
The Partisan Public (Exhibit #14612)
Is Norm Coleman Getting His Money’s Worth?
No PirateBump™ for Obama
Carrots and Sticks for Specter: A Model for Democrats?
Battle of Saratoga, Frivolous Challenges Won’t Save Tedisco
How Many Attended The Tea Parties?
“Tea Party” Protests Appear to Draw At Least 250,000
Tea Party Nonpartisan Attendance Estimates: Now 300,000+
Tea Party Nonpartisan Attendance Estimates: Now 300,000+
Hey Rick, Can We Talk?
NY-20: Challenged Ballots Will Aid Murphy; No Apprent Path to Victory for Tedisco
NY-20: Challenged Ballots Will Aid Murphy; No Apprent Path to Victory for Tedisco
When Does ‘Close’ Become Too-Close-to-Call?
Are the Republicans Going Galt?
When Hope is the Enemy of Change
The Pope and the Planet
Senate Fundraising All-Stars
Why Doesn’t Mike Huckabee Get More Respect?
Messing with Texas
Race and the 2008 Election, Revisited
Murphy Wins in NY-20: Let the Spin Begin!
The Environmental Inverted Pyramid
Were the Tea Parties Really a Libertarian Thing?
Explaining the Contradictory Torture Polling
Specter’s Switch More Insult Than Injury to GOP
What Kind of Democrat Will Arlen Specter Be?
But Now He’s *Our* No-Good, Dirty Rotten Bastard
Six Degrees of Swine Flu
Party of No(body)?
Two National Polls, for First Time, Show Plurality Support for Gay Marriage
Bunning Retirement Might Not Save GOP in Kentucky
Is Sestak the Right Choice for the Left?
The Republican Party ID Decline, Revisited
Supreme Court Picks: Little Peril for Presidential Approval
Senate Rankings, May 2009 Edition
What the [Bleep] Do We Know?
The Obama Bull Market?
In Which I Defend a Republican Pollster
Is T-Paw Taking One for the Team?
Is America Still a Car Culture?
Sestak-Type Intraparty Challenges are Rare, But Not Without Precedent
It Ain’t Easy Being a Governor
Why Didn’t Ridge Run?
Hooray! The Second Derivative of the Unemployment Rate Improved!
Bush May Haunt Republicans for Generations
Elevated Risk of Tweets
Mike Huckabee’s Flawed Logic on the GOP’s Future
Forecast: On Climate Change, Cooler Temperatures Bring Hotter Air
Should Democrats Be Rooting for Charlie Crist?
The Decline of The Conservative Intellectual
Why Obama Wants the Olympics
Will Crist Get Toomeyed?
Whip Count: Gay Marriage Faces Uphill Odds in New York Senate
Is Public Opinion Changing on Abortion?
Arlen Specter Now 67% Democrat
Travel Advisory
Blogosphere Reality Has a Liberal Bias
CNN Poll: Record Support for Roe v Wade?
Random, Pretentious Observations from Europe
Sotomayor Is Reportedly Obama’s Court Pick
Current Senators Voted 36-11 to Confirm Sotomayor in 1998
Hispanics Back Gay Marriage at Same Rates as Whites
Grandmother of World’s 23rd Best Economist Posthumously Offended by Sonia Sotomayor’s Spending Habits; Will Obama Withdraw Nomination?
omg wuz adam robbed?
Washington Times: Supremes Uphold Sotomayor Opinions at Above-Average Rate
Dodd Vulnerable to Primary Challenge
News Flash: Car Dealers are Republicans (It’s Called a Control Group, People)
Roberts > Sotomayor > Alito?
Operation Gringo: Can the Republicans Sacrifice the Hispanic Vote and Win the White House?
Operation Gringo, Cont’d.
On Moon Landings, Michelle Malkin, P-Values, the Clintons, and the Magical Mystery Dealergate Conspiracy Theory
Senate Rankings, June 2009 Edition
GOP Has Always Been Dominated by White Voters
Pro-Life States Have Lower Abortion Rates
Is Gay Marriage Coming or Going in NY State?
Gubernatorial Power Rankings: Crist, Freudenthal Top List
Get Ready for Hockey Dad!
McAuliffe : Virginia :: Dean : Iowa?
Liberal Blogger Matt Yglesias Wants to Tax Your Beer! I Want to Tax Drunk Drivers.
New York’s Gillibrand Has Become Lockstep Liberal
The Palin Paradox: Women More Likely to be Elected in Male-Dominated Districts
Has The Geithner Plan Succeeded?
Following Leadership Coup, Gay Marriage Probably DOA in New York State [UPDATED: Or Is It?]
Starbucks Beats Peet’s?
N.R.A. Muscle Saves 538, Blocks D.C. Voting Rights
Paterson Now Less Popular Than Spitzer
How To Get 63% of Americans to Support Gay Marriage. (Maybe.)
American Medical Association Has Long Donated to Opponents of Health Care Reform
Obama Approval Rating Exceeds 50% in States Containing 445 Electoral Votes
Statistical Report Purporting to Show Rigged Iranian Election Is Flawed
Iranian Election Results by Province [UPDATED]
Polling Predicted Intimidation — and Not Necessarily Ahmadinejad’s Victory
On Health Care, Who’s Hooked on Special Interest Money?
If He Did It
Don’t Expect Ensign to Resign
Personal Democracy Forum, June 29th-30th
Ahmadinejad’s Rural Votes
Karroubi’s Unlucky 7’s?
Congress: A Good Place for Health Care To Die
The Ayatollah’s Flawed Logic
Public Support for the Public Option
Lazy Sunday Linkage: Public Option, Iran, Nate v. Karl Rove
Worst. Damage Control. Ever.
Special Interest Money Means Longer Odds for Public Option
Special Interest Money Means Longer Odds for Public Option
Voting With Their Feet?
Another Iranian Oddity
George F. Will Admits Public Option Will Cut Costs
Good Morning, Tehran
Sanford to Minneapolis? (Nope — Argentina?)
Why is the Washington Post Testing Republican Messages on Health Care?
Obama’s (Unintentionally?) Brilliant Strategy on Cap-and-Trade
The Environmental Indifference Point
Sanford: More Resignation Pressure than other Pantsless Pols
Cap-and-Trade, State-by-State
Sex scandals, le style Français
Cap-and-Trade Bill Passes House
How To Destroy (Almost) Half the Planet for the Low, Low Price of Just 5% of Global GDP
Wyden Not?
Minnesota Supreme Court Rejects Coleman’s Claims, Rules Election Was Fair
Who Voted for the Climate Bill? (And Why?)
Obama Has a Health Care Plan?
Is Mike Huckabee the New Jesse Jackson?
Destroying the Planet, Part II
Destroying the Planet, Part II
This Post Brought to You by Poker
Why (Some) Liberals Hate Sarah Palin
Explainin' Palin: All of The Above?
Explainin’ Palin: All of The Above?
How Can the Climate Bill Get to 60 Votes?
Poker Update: I’m #441
Oh No, Ohio?
A Republican Hot Streak?
Third and Unfortunately Last Poker Update
In Illinois, Dems Dodge Bullet; GOP Shoots Selves in Foot
Taxing the Rich: The (Politically) Smart Way to Pay for Health Care
Why Democrats Have No Time to Waste
Senate Rankings, July 2009 Edition
Will Kay Bailey Hutchison Play Texas Hold ‘Em?
Blue Dog Districts Need Health Care More than Most
Palin: All Tail, No Head
On Health Care, Bipartisanship without Compromise?
A Challenge to Climate Change Skeptics
Rumors of the Demise of ObamaCare Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
The Case Against the Case Against Taxing Health Benefits
Palin Mini-Scandal: Not the “Other Shoe”
House (not Senate) May be Barrier to Health Care
Arlen Specter Just Can’t Shake Pat Toomey
Climate Challenge Update
A Note to Blue Dog Democrats on Health Care and Pascal’s Wager
Obama Approval Ratings Straw Poll
The Healthcare Timeout is Fine.
Since Primary Challenge, Specter Voting with Dems 97% of the Time
Since Primary Challenge, Specter Voting with Dems 97% of the Time
Governor Palin, You’re No Hillary Clinton
A Brief Note on the Safety of the Democratic Majority in the House
The Baucus Bill’s Bad Math
A Harvard Professor Says Some Stupid Things
Obama, Democrats Flunking Health Care Sales Pitch
The Only Winning Move is Not To Play
Yes, the GOP’s Still Out of Touch
Chavismo, Obama and the Monroe Doctrine
Health Care Bill Has Little Margin for Error in House
Health Care Bill Has Little Margin for Error in House
The Real Problem with The Senate's Small-State Bias
The Real Problem with The Senate’s Small-State Bias
Obama States and Unemployment: Confusing Cause and Effect
The Difference Between Birthers and Truthers
The Enthusiasm Gap, Revisited
Nothing Sucks Worse Than The Post Office — Except for Kinko’s
If Republicans Were Serious About Deficits…
Hispanic Votes Not Swaying GOP on Sotomayor
The NRA’s Pyrrhic “Victory” on Sotomayor
Economic Headlines You Won’t See on The Drudge Report
Mel Martinez to Resign Senate Seat; Charlie Crist to Pull Own Hair Out
Obama Has Cut Taxes for 98.6 Percent of Working* Households**
Why Unemployment (Probably) Won’t Hit 10 Percent
Not All Socialist Countries are Alike
Are The Health Care Protests Working? And Are Liberals Helping Them?
Occam’s Razor and Health Care
Likely Voters and Unlikely Scenarios
Life After the Death of the Public Option
How Many Votes Does the Public Option Have? How Many Does it Need?
Grand Unified Obama Critique
The Essence of the Health Care Endgame
For Democrats, a “Moment of Clarity” on Health Care?
Are Progressives on Tilt?
Senate Rankings, August 2009 Edition: Republicans Movin’ On Up
How to Poll on the Public Option
Ted Kennedy, 1932-2009
Could a Republican Win Ted Kennedy’s Senate Seat?
Poll: Most Don’t Know What “Public Option” Is — Including Pollsters
Ford is Also Trading in Its Clunkers for Cash
Colorado Primary Challenge Looks Like Win-Win for Dems
Colorado Primary Challenge Looks Like Win-Win for Dems
50 Percent is Not a Magic Number
Do Americans Really Hate Flying? Or Really Love Driving?
Do Americans Really Hate Flying? Or Really Love Driving?
On Public Option, “Not No” Doesn’t Equal “Yes”
The Biggest Moment of His Presidency? Well, Yes*.
Do Blue Dogs Hate the Public Option Just Because Liberals Like It?
What Today’s Unemployment Report Means
A Trigger — With Teeth?
As Unemployment Rises, Support for Organized Labor Falls
Dep’t of Stupid Headlines: L.A. Times Edition
Analysis: Public Option Is Likely Popular in Most Blue Dog Districts
Liveblog: Obama’s State-of-The-Healthcare Speech
State-of-the-Healthcare Speech: Final Thoughts
Closing the Gap on Health Care
Size Matters; So Do Lies
When You Assume, You Make a Mess Out of Your Poll
A Bounce? Yes. A Game-Changer? We’ll See.
Baucus Compromise Bill Draws Enthusiastic Support of Senator Max Baucus (D-MT)
IBD/TIPP Doctors Poll Is Not Trustworthy
Democrats 1, Red Sox 0
Is Public Opinion on Health Care Locked In?
Gay Marriage Is Fading as ‘Values’ Focal Point
Don’t Count Health Care Chickens Yet
Health Care Is Hazardous to Poll Numbers for Grassley, Other Senators
Glenn Beck, Post-Modern Conservative
A Few More Questions for a Sketchy Pollster
Strategic Vision Polls Exhibit Unusual Patterns, Possibly Indicating Fraud
Comparison Study: Unusual Patterns in Strategic Vision Polling Data Remain Unexplained
Are Oklahoma Students Really This Dumb? Or Is Strategic Vision Really This Stupid?
Are Oklahoma Students Really This Dumb? Or Is Strategic Vision Really This Stupid?
Strategic Vision Office Is Located in Rural Blairsville, GA, Not Atlanta As Firm Claims
Monday Mish-Mash: Strategic Vision, Las Vegas, and String Theory
The Attention Deficit
Bad News for Public Option?
An Open Letter to Strategic Vision CEO David Johnson
Senate Rankings, September 2009 Lightning Round Edition
Analysis: Gay Marriage Ban is Underdog in Maine
Disband the IOC!
The Weekly Standard’s John McCormack is a Socialist or Something
In New Jersey, Two Glasses Half-Empty
Question Order May Bias Fox News Health Care Polling
Delaware Leaps to #1 in Senate Rankings; Is 60-Seat Majority Doomed?
Delaware Leaps to #1 in Senate Rankings; Is 60-Seat Majority Doomed?
Opt Me Out of Public Option Purism
Would Rush Limbaugh Hurt the St. Louis Rams?
Why The Insurance Industry is Fighting Mad
Just Words
Honey, Does This Governor Make Me Look Fat?
Honey, Does This Governor Make Me Look Fat?
The Price of Party Unity
Can Offshore Drilling Save the Climate Bill?
Lieberman Flirting with Political Suicide
In Defense of Rush Limbaugh
Christie Shouldn’t Count on “Daggett Effect” To Save Him
Geoengineering is No Free Lunch — A Comment on SuperFreakonomics
The Not-So-Bad-Case Scenario
Turnout is the Maine Issue
Why The (Impure) Public Option is (Probably) Gaining Momentum
The Issue That Could Fracture Both Right and Left
Arguments Against Gay Marriage Literally Stop Making Sense
The Public Option Playing Field, in Two Dimensions
60 v. 61?
Despite Claims, Anti-Gay Group in Maine More Dependent on Out-of-State Funds
2009 Elections Preview: NYC Mayor
Reality Check: NY-23 Poll May Seek to Alter, Not Reflect, Reality
On Being Wrong About the Public Option
Somebody Buy Joe Lieberman a Puppy
Zogby Again Polls on Misleading Question, This Time with Racial Tinge
2009 Elections Preview: Virginia Governor
Man vs. Machine in New Jersey
2009 Elections Preview: NY-23 — A Toss-Up, Indeed, Between Owens, Hoffman
Scozzafava's Supporters Like Obama, Dislike Hoffman and Owens
Scozzafava’s Supporters Like Obama, Dislike Hoffman and Owens
Senate Rankings: October 2009 Quick-and-Dirty Edition
Senate Rankings: October 2009 Quick-and-Dirty Edition
Three Big Questions in NY-23
Local vs. National Conservative Grassroots
2009 Elections Preview: Maine Question 1 (Gay Marriage)
15 Clarifying Questions For Close Elections
2009 Elections Preview: New Jersey Governor
NY-23 Re-Re-Re-Reconsidered
The Republicans’ Branding Problem
Gubernatorial Races a Poor Yardstick
2009 Elections Preview: CA-10
2009 Elections Preview: Washington Referendum 71 (Domestic Partnership)
Election Night Overview
Deeds v. Obama in Virginia
Still Too Close to Call in New Jersey (Update: Apparently Not?)
NY-23 Results by County; Democrat Owens Appears Poised for Victory
What Happened and Why?
All Politics is Local, Ctd.
New Jersey ≠ Virginia
Independent Voters and Empty Explanations
Skipping Elections, Strategic Vision Has Not Polled Since Controversy Arose
Unemployment Hits 10.2 Percent
House Likely to Pass Health Care Bill Tonight
Real Oklahoma Students Ace Citizenship Exam; Strategic Vision Survey Was Likely Fabricated
Many Previously Pro-Choice Dems Voted for Stupak Amendment
Is the Prognosis For Health Care Getting Better or Worse? The Market Weighs In.
For the Soccer Fans Among You
Time for Dems to Panic?
How the Swine Flu Has Spread
Monday Miscellany
Why Palin Will Run for President in 2012
10 Reasons That Sarah Palin Could Win the Republican Nomination
Dems Lucky There Aren’t More Lincolns
It’s [Still] The Economy, Dumbass
I Read Through 160,000,000 Bytes of Hacked Files And All I Got Was This Lousy E-Mail
I Read Through 160,000,000 Bytes of Hacked Files And All I Got Was This Lousy E-Mail
Lincoln To Vote for Motion to Proceed, But Threatens Filibuster on Public Option
Is The Public Option Un-Un-Dead?
Advice To Blanche Lincoln: Speak Softly, But Carry Firm Position on Health Care Reform
Democrats Damned If They Do; Damnder If They Don’t
Best Idea of the Day: Climate Change Futures Markets
How Bad Could Obama Screw Up and Still Beat Sarah Palin?
The Case for Climate Futures Markets, Ctd.
Some New Rules for Frequent — and Infrequent — Fliers
Charlie Crist is Not a Good Sharer
Intolerance, European Style
This is Great News!!! For Progressives!!!
A Cop-Killer’s Impact on 2012
The Speech Isn’t the Story
Poll Finds Widespread Apathy Among Black Voters
World Cup Draw Preview
Maine Revisited: Is There a Backlash Against Same-Sex Marriage?
World Cup 2010 Advancement Probabilities
Improving Unemployment Numbers Make Political Case for Jobs Bill Stronger, Not Weaker
538 –> Copenhagen
In Polls, Much Opposition to Health Care Plan Is From Left
Copenhagen Dispatch
Despite Protests, Some Reason for Optimism in Copenhagen
My Last Words on the Public Option
Countries Most Vulnerable to Climate Change Are Least Aware of Threat
If An Economy Recovers and No One Cheers It, Does It Make a Sound?
Greg Mankiw, Stimulus Critic: So Wrong He’s Actually Right
Joe Lieberman: Smarter Than Br’er Fox
How To Nuke the Filibuster
The Public Option Fight May Not Have Been Winnable
Why Progressives Are Batshit Crazy to Oppose the Senate Bill
20 Questions for Bill Killers
Health Care: The Elevator Pitch
20 Questions, 20 Responses
An Uncharitable Take on a Liberal Poll
Nelson Pledges Support For Health Care Bill, Making Passage Likely
An Extremely Premature Retrospective on the Kill Bill Strategy
Can’t Tell the Conservatives and Liberals Apart Without a Program
The Insidious Myth of Reconciliation
Could Obama Have Sold the Public Option?
Insurance Stocks Rise on News of Health Care Deal; What’s It Mean?
Another Left-Right Convergence
A Bit More Context on Health Insurer Stocks
2009’s Most Valuable Democrat Is…
Senate Passes Historic Health Care Reform Bill on Party Line Vote
Health Insurance Stocks Decline on News of Senate Passage of Reform Bill; Have Underperformed Market Since Start of Week
Postscript
Happy Holidays from 538!
For Pelosi, Many Paths to 218
The Odds of Airborne Terror
The Senate’s Bill Helps Working Families
The Internet is Underrated: A Note on Activism, Populism and Polarization at the End of the ‘Aughts
Election 2012: Ben Nelson (D-NE) Trails Jesus in Reelection Bid
Health Insurance and the Family Budget: Highly Affordable for Some, More Affordable for All
Senate Rankings, December 2009 Edition
Is Rasmussen Reports Biased?
The Skies Are as Friendly as Ever: 9/11, Al Qaeda Obscure Statistics on Airline Safety
The Skies Are as Friendly as Ever: 9/11, Al Qaeda Obscure Statistics on Airline Safety
Putting the [R] in [R]asmussen?
Wicked Awesome Thoughts on Massachusetts Special Election
Rassachusetts: Why a Poll May be Terribly, Horribly Wrong — And Why Democrats Should be Worried Anyway
North Dakota: #1 With a Bullet
Dodd Joins Dorgan on Sidelines; Blumenthal Enters as Heavy Favorite
2010 Senate Races Present Rewards, but Higher Risks for Democrats
This is Great News! For Sarah Palin! (Really)
Rasmussen, Teabaggers, and Type II Error
Battle of the Massachusetts Polls
As Spotlight Shines on Reid, Re-Election Prospects Dim
Massachusetts Chart of the Day
Divorce Rates Higher in States with Gay Marriage Bans
Massachusetts: It’s Not Just About Turnout
With or Without Reid, Poll Suggests Trouble For Dems in Nevada
OK, It’s a Toss-Up
Liberal Website Helpfully Tests Messages Against Vulnerable Democrat, Finds Them Wanting
One Massachusetts Poll That Democrats Shouldn’t Panic About
A Statistical Ray of Hope for Coakley
538 Still Rates Massachusetts as Toss-up
Massachusetts Model Mayhem
Trendspotting in Massachusetts
Obama Approval Under 50 Percent Among Massachusetts Likely Voters?
538 Model Posits Brown as 3:1 Favorite
25% ≠ 0%
White House Readies Gamble On High-Speed Ping-Pong
Are Coakley Voters Too Ashamed to be Polled?
Six Quick Things
Defying Odds, Republican Brown Becomes Next Senator from Massachusetts
Let’s Play the Blame Game!
Post-Partisanship Epic Fail?
Is Health Care Reform the new Iraq War?
Will the Base Abandon Hope?
Senate Rankings: Post-Masspocalypse Edition
Health Care Polls: Opinion Gap or Information Gap?
1. Reconciliation! 2. ??? 3. Profit!
Massachusetts Liked Universal Health Care Before It Voted Against It
Massachusetts Liked Universal Health Care Before It Voted Against It
Senate Rankings Update: Delaware, Indiana, Nevada
The White House’s Brain Freeze
Why Obama Shouldn’t Panic
Evan Bayh To Oppose Procedure That Makes Evan Bayh Unimportant
After Massachusetts, Road to 218 is Long and Winding
What Obama Shouldn’t Learn from Steve Jobs
Obama’s SOTU: Clintonian, In a Good Way
Arlen Specter May Be Screwed, But He Probably Isn’t THIS Screwed
What Killed Obama’s Approval Numbers?
Democrats Need a Proactive Messaging Strategy
Super Bowl Thread: Take the Points
Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 4
In Illinois, Both Sides Exaggerate Electability Arguments
In Illinois, Both Sides Exaggerate Electability Arguments
Better to be Strong and Wrong -- Especially When You're Actually Right
Better to be Strong and Wrong — Especially When You’re Actually Right
The Health Care Information Gap: More Information Needed
The Health Care Information Gap: More Information Needed
Recount All But Assured in Illinois Gubernatorial Primary
McGOP: The Virtues and Vices of Sameness
A Few Questions about #QuestionTime
Super Bowl Thread: Take the Points
Go For It! Saints Understand Value of Aggressive Play-Calling
Sarah Palin Needs Help
Republicans — Not Obama — More Often on Wrong Side of Public Opinion
A First Look at Palin’s Primary Math
Republicans are Conservative — but are they this Conservative?
Freedom’s Just Another Word for Nothing Left to Lose
Democrats Don’t Know the Way Forward
White House May Actually Articulate Specific Position on Health Care
Foreign Aid Spending Is Crippling Our Budget...NOT
Consensus Olympic Medal Count Projections: Day 3
Consensus Olympic Medal Count Projections: Day 3
Bayh, Relative to His State, Was Valuable to Democrats
Bayh, Relative to His State, Was Valuable to Democrats
Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 4
Republicans Must Defend Senate Seats Too
Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 5
Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 6
Can You Trust Those FireDogLake Polls?
Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 7
Parallels to 1994 Are Superficial, but Results May be the Same
Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 8
Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 9
Canada Not Owning the Podium
Canada Not Owning the Podium
There’s More Than One Way to Lose a Majority
Is 56 is the New 60?
Hindsight and Health Care
Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 11
A Few Final Thoughts on the Ublicpay Optionway
Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 12
The Myth of the Incumbent 50% Rule
Did the Blair House Summit Change Anything?
Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 14
Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 15
It's Complicated!
NCAA Tournament Odds -- and Some Advice on Pool Strategy
Passage Almost Certain, But Number of Votes Unclear
Winter Olympics Balance of Power Shifting Toward U.S., Asia
Obama’s No F.D.R. — Nor Does He Have F.D.R.’s Majority
Lincoln Logs a Challenger as Halter Tries to Halt Her — But are Democrats Spinning their Wheels?
In Texas, Anti-Washington Trumps Anti-Incumbent
Popularity of Health Care Bill Unchanged Since House Vote in November
Is Obamacare a Favorite to Pass?
Charlie’s Sorry Choices
Senate Race Rankings Update, 3/10
House Effects Render Poll-Reading Difficult
Lame Excuses on Public Option, but no “Scam”
Stats Say Kucinich may be Least Valuable Democrat
Some Cautious Optimism on Health Care Whip Count
Two Pictures Tell the Story on Health Care Debate
Which Democrats are under Primary Pressure on Health Care Vote?
Progressives’ Strategic Choices on Health Care Likely Made Little Difference
Why Liberals (Suddenly) Love the Health Care Bill
NCAA Tournament Odds -- and Some Advice on Pool Strategy
NCAA Tournament Odds — and Some Advice on Pool Strategy
Time to Start Counting Yes Votes
The Progressives’ Bad Bluff
It’s Complicated!
The Margolies-Mezvinsky Goes To…
Stupak to Vote Yes?
Passage Almost Certain, But Number of Votes Unclear
UPDATED: Whip Counts Now Show Democrats With 216+ Solid Yes Votes
Rules Vote Points Toward ~220 Yeas On Final Passage
Health Care Finale Liveblog
Obama’s Share Determined Dems’ Votes on ObamaCare
On the Appeal of Repeal
Trading Markets See Ambiguous Impact from Health Care Passage
The Fourth Branch
If There’s A Bounce, Will It Hold?
Senate Forecast Update, 3/24
Are Democrats Better Off for Having Passed Health Care? Yes — and No.
Can Democrats “Win” The Midterms?
Incredible Izzo Again Defies Odds
Is Florida Still a Swing State?
It’s Not About Race — Unless I Say It Is!
No Evidence that Red States are Lagging on Census
A Theory of Relativity
On That Other Three-Way Race...
Study Claiming Link Between Stimulus Funding and Partisanship is Manifestly Flawed
Veronique de Rugy Responds to Critique of Stimulus Study
Att’n: City-Dwellers
A Teacup Half-Full
Democrats are Enthusiastic; Republicans are More So
Generic Ballot Points Toward Possible 50+ Seat Loss for Democrats
Supremes Get Ready for Encore
A Theory of Relativity
Do Manhattanites Get Their Money’s Worth?
Newt Gingrich: Dominated Strategy?
Additional Information on New York Neighborhood Ratings
Additional Information on New York Neighborhood Ratings
Specter Remains Vulnerable in Primary
Romney, Not Paul, Fares Best in ’12 Matchups
Tea Party Bears Beck’s Imprint
Use of Likely Voter Model Does Not Explain Rasmussen “House Effect”
Double Down by the Numbers: Unhealthiest Sandwich Ever?
Do Democrats Have a Dodd Problem?
How Weak Is the GOP’s 2012 Field?
Rubio’s Path Easiest, Crist’s Challenging, in Potential Three-Way Race
Senate Forecast Update: Little Chance of GOP Takeover, but Dem Position Remains Precarious
Labour Danger: Uniform Swing Calculations May Understate Risk to Incumbents
Stop, Drop and Poll
Utah’s Bennett May Be First Incumbent Casualty
Kaine: “Republicans Are the Obstruction People”
Post-UK Debate Scenarios
Strong Second by LibDems Could Help Tories
On That Other Three-Way Race…
Nerdfight: UK Election Model Methodology
Nerdfight: Episode IV — Return of the Tories
Conservatives Climb To 308 in UK Seats Projection; Labour 198, LibDems 113
Dino Rossi: #51?
Final UK Projection: Conservatives 312, Labour 204, LibDems 103
UK Election Day Scenarios
UK Election Returns: Overnight Blog
Telephone Polls Closer to Mark in UK
Utah Will Have New Senator
On Kagan’s Minority Hiring Record
Sestakular!
UK Forecasting Retrospective
Mollohan Loss Costly for Democrats, Scary for Incumbents
White House Case for Specter Support Unpersuasive
Don’t Take Polling Literally, Part #39916
In Backing Insurgents, Republicans Face November Risks
Polls, Intangibles Favor Sestak
In Connecticut, Dems May Need to Draft New Candidate
In Connecticut, Dems May Need to Draft New Candidate
Benchmarking PA-12
Election Night Homethread (5/18/10)
What Tuesday Really Meant
Soft Landing for Blumenthal?
Paulapollooza
Homework Assignment
Lost in Hawaii
Study: Excluding Cellphones Introduces Statistically Significant Bias in Polls
Study: Excluding Cellphones Introduces Statistically Significant Bias in Polls
Might This Be a Good Time for Instant Runoff?
Blast from Rasmussen’s Past
A New Poll of 500 Political Junkies…
Wisconsin Senate: Feingold 46%, Smithee (R) 44%
Southern Primaries Often Confound Pollsters
Zogby Broke the Internet, But it Can be Fixed
Is Gulf Disaster Spilling into Obama’s Approval Ratings?
FiveThirtyEight to Partner with New York Times
Pollster Ratings v4.0: Methodology
Pollster Ratings v4.0: Results
Pollster Scorecard: SurveyUSA
Pollster Scorecard: InsiderAdvantage (Be Careful What You Wish For)
Are You Smarter Than a George Mason University Economics Professor?
Primary Night in America / 6.8.2010
On Transparency, Hypocrisy, and Research 2000
Arkansas Was Tough Target for Unions, Netroots
World Cup Simulated Odds
Yes, Virginia (and Kansas and Missouri — but not you, Baylor), there is an Equilibrium Solution to the Great Conference Shakeout
FiveThirtyEight Seeking NYC-based Intern
NPR Survey of Swing Seats is Consistent with Generic Ballot Polling
A Note on Scheduling
FiveThirtyEight Establishes Process for Pollsters to Review its Database of Their Polls
World Cup Odds Update
Top Corporate Donor to Barton Is Partner of BP on Deepwater Horizon
For Information Purposes Only
Is Africa Failing?
Why Aren’t There More Pollster Ratings?
World Cup Knockout Round Scenarios
Ratings on Obama Oil Spill Performance are Flattening Out, For Now
Why We Have U.S.-Ghana at Even Money
A Rainbow Nation, But a Polarized Electorate
In Step Back for Journalist, Two Steps Backward for Journalism
Senator Byrd is Ill; A Note on West Virginia's Vacancy Laws
Senator Byrd is Ill; A Note on West Virginia’s Vacancy Laws
Sen. Robert Byrd Dead at 92
Advocacy in the Form of a Poll
[UPDATED] WV Special Election is Unlikely Until 2012
Senate Forecast: After Primaries, Picture Slightly Improved for Dems
Senate Forecast: After Primaries, Picture Slightly Improved for Dems
BREAKING: Daily Kos to Sue Research 2000 for Fraud
My Own Suspicions About Research 2000
Research 2000 Issues Cease & Desist Letter to FiveThirtyEight
Nonrandomness in Research 2000’s Presidential Tracking Polls
How Research 2000 Could Make Its Life Easy
An Additional Point or Two about West Virginia
Kos Legal Filing Raises Further Questions about Research 2000
Is Research 2000 Merely Mangling Its Data -- Rather Than Fabricating It?
Is Research 2000 Merely Mangling Its Data — Rather Than Fabricating It?
A Note to John Zogby
re: LeBron
Can Manchin Save West Virginia for Democrats?
An Additional Point or Two about West Virginia
An Additional Point or Two about West Virginia
Did LeBron James Just Cost Himself $150 Million?
Did LeBron James Just Cost Himself $150 Million?
Pentagon Spends $4.4 Million to Test Troops’ Gaydar
It Is Too the Economy!
ARG, My Brain Hurts!
Gay Marriage Chart-of-the-Day
Senate Forecast, 7/18: Republican Outlook Improves with Focus on Likely Voter Polls
Senate Forecast, 7/18: Republican Outlook Improves with Focus on Likely Voter Polls
Is a Poll Scientific if it Excludes More Than Half the Population?
There Is No Such Thing As a Free Shot at a Senate Seat
Democrats Shouldn’t Spare Pennies for Lincoln
Bunker Mentality at 1600 Pennsylvania?
My Life on the J-List
The Broadus Effect? Social Desirability Bias and California Proposition 19
The Broadus Effect? Social Desirability Bias and California Proposition 19
Cap-and-Trade is Dead; Long Live Cap-and-Trade
It's Like Mathematically Unpossible for Republicans to Win the House, or Something
It’s Like Mathematically Unpossible for Republicans to Win the House, or Something
Introducing Partisan Propensity Index (PPI)
Introducing Partisan Propensity Index (PPI)
Polls, Reporting on “Ground Zero Mosque” May Mislead
Moving Day
A Street-Level View of the “Ground Zero Mosque”
Conservative, Liberal Sites Both Fueling Race "Conversation"
Conservative, Liberal Sites Both Fueling Race “Conversation”
Will Gay Marriage, Once Again, Become a Campaign Issue?
Kennedy, Olson and the Right Side of History
Roadmap to Nowhere
Washington’s Muteness on Prop 8 a Sign of Cynicism, Not Progress
How Much Revenue Would a Millionaires’ Tax Raise?
As Liberals Lose Hope, the White House is Losing Its Cool
CNN Poll is First To Show Majority Support for Gay Marriage
CNN Poll is First To Show Majority Support for Gay Marriage
Opinion on Same-Sex Marriage Appears to Shift at Accelerated Pace
Opinion on Same-Sex Marriage Appears to Shift at Accelerated Pace
Obama's "Problems" With the Left
Automated Poll Produces Starkly Different Results on Gay Marriage Question
Obama Defense of “Ground Zero Mosque” Less Risky Than it Seems
ESPN Umpire Study Blows The Call
More on FiveThirtyEight’s Moving Plans
How Stable is the Generic Ballot?
When Good Enough Isn’t Good Enough: On House Forecasts and the Generic Ballot
Moving Day
Tuesday Night Live
Welcome (and Welcome Back) to FiveThirtyEight
New Forecast Shows Democrats Losing 6 to 7 Senate Seats
A Closer Look at Alaska
In Nevada, No One Is Someone to Watch
With Increase in Partisanship, Fewer Surprises Likely in Governors’ Races
The Democrats’ New Normal
How Did Democrats Get Here?
In Singling Out Murkowski, Tea Party Chose Wisely
G.O.P. Poised to Control 30 Governor Seats
Governor Forecasts: Understanding the Model
Democrats Aren’t Running From Health Care. But What Are They Running On?
Republicans Have One-in-Four Chance to Claim Senate Majority, Model Shows
The Republicans’ 50-State, 428-District Strategy
G.O.P. Has 2-in-3 Chance of Taking House, Model Forecasts
2 Insurgents Could Hurt G.O.P. Chances for Senate Takeover
Paladino and New York’s Republicans
The Polls Have Tightened? Not So Fast
Live Blogging Primary Night
Voters Deliver a Reminder to Republicans (and Pundits)
Gubernatorial Forecast Update
After Delaware, G.O.P. Senate Takeover Appears Much Less Likely
House Forecast Update: Embracing the Uncertainty
Murkowski Can Win as Write-In
More on Murkowski’s Math
Assessing the G.O.P. and the Tea Party
Poll Showing Gains by Paladino Excluded Key Candidate From Ballot
Why Generic Ballots May Underestimate Democrats
Brown Gains Ground in California; Few Other Changes in Gubernatorial Forecast
Now Here’s a Shocking Poll: Cuomo 49, Paladino 43
Senate Forecast: Republican Takeover Chances Improved, but Democrats Are Building Pacific Firewall
Cuomo’s Coattails and Gillibrand’s Race
The Bias of the Generic Ballot: It’s Complicated
Calculating the Castle Write-In Bid
Holding Pattern in House Forecast
Analyzing Whitman’s Questions About California Poll
Plan B: Connecticut and W. Virginia Create New Outline for G.O.P. Senate Takeover
Forecast Update: Republican Governors Are Well Positioned
The Uncanny Accuracy of Polling Averages*, Part I: Why You Can’t Trust Your Gut
Alaska Polls Suggest Murkowski Has Upside as a Write-In
The Uncanny Accuracy of Polling Averages*, Part II: What the Numbers Say
G.O.P. Stays on Upswing in Senate Forecast
House Forecast: As October Dawns, November’s Math Still Strong for G.O.P.
The Uncanny Accuracy of Polling Averages*, Part III: This Time, It’s Different?
The Uncanny Accuracy of Polling Averages*, Part IV: Are the Polls Getting Worse?
Odds Against Third-Party Bid Not as Long as They Seem
‘Likely Voter’ Gap Favors G.O.P. by 6 Points; Gallup’s Model Sees It Bigger
Understanding and Misunderstanding the ‘Enthusiasm Gap’
Shifting Tides in Governors’ Races: Brown Now 3-to-1 Favorite
Illinois Voters, Unhappy With Candidates, Show Few Signs of Committing
G.O.P. Senate Odds Improve for Third Consecutive Week
Projected Republican Gains Approach 50 House Seats
Number of Competitive House Races Doubles from Recent Years
Incumbents Polling Below 50 Percent Often Win Re-Election, Despite Conventional Wisdom
West Virginia Poses Dilemma for Democrats: Must-Win or No-Win?
Modest Gains for Democrats in Gubernatorial Forecast
Voting by Mail in Washington State May Confound Pollsters
Democratic Polling Improves in Key Senate Races, Lengthening G.O.P. Takeover Odds
Bypassed Cellphones: Biased Polls?
Second Sestak Comeback Is Unlikely
Consensus Points to 50-Seat G.O.P. Gain in House, but May Understate Uncertainty
Canaries in the Coal Mine? Or Cuckoo Polls?
Alaska Race May Make for Long Election Night
Democrats Remain Favored to Retain Senate
Pennsylvania Revisited
Gubernatorial Forecast Update: Can Tancredo Win in Colorado?
The Misunderstanding of Momentum
G.O.P. Odds of House Majority Now 3-in-4
Is Proposition 19 Going Up in Smoke?
Senate Forecast Update: Don’t Call It a Comeback?
Sometimes, Money Can’t Buy You Votes
For First Time, Model Has G.O.P. Favored to Win 50-Plus House Seats
Governor Forecast Update: Chafee’s Chances Wax; Whitman’s Wane
Senate Forecast Update: G.O.P. Still Seeking No. 51
Early Voter ‘Enthusiasm Gap’ Appears Consistent With Polls
A Second Pass at Early Voting Totals: Now With Extra Skepticism
House Forecast: 8 Days to Go
G.O.P. Senate Odds Slip on Colorado, West Virginia Polls
Governors’ Forecast Moves Toward Democrats in 3 Blue States
Are Democrats Overachieving in the Senate?
Tonight’s House Forecast: 52-Seat Gain For G.O.P.
Polls Show Wider Boxer Lead, Narrowing G.O.P. Takeover Path
Model Now Has Whitman as Big Underdog in California
For Democrats, Losing the House Is Not Inevitable. (Just Very Likely.)
Angle Turns Corner in Nevada, but G.O.P. Senate Odds Drop
G.O.P. Now Projected to Gain 53 House Seats
Governor Forecast Update: Live, Automated Polls Split on Tancredo Chances
‘Robopolls’ Significantly More Favorable to Republicans Than Traditional Surveys
Senate Update: Washington Is the New Florida
Favorites Emerge in Three-Way Governor’s Races
G.O.P. House Projection Steady at Plus-53 Seats
Senate Update: California May Be Out of Reach for G.O.P.
Sharp Changes in Maine, Oregon Governor Forecasts
Saturday Night Forecast Update: Calm Before the Storm
The Ultimate Hour-by-Hour, District-by-District Election Guide
5 Reasons Republicans Could Do Even Better Than Expected
Strickland, Foley Hoping Voters Will Split Tickets
Agreeing to Disagree: Size of Republican Wave Hard to Predict
5 Reasons Democrats Could Beat the Polls and Hold the House
House Forecast: G.O.P. Plus 54-55 Seats; Significantly Larger or Smaller Gains Possible
Republicans Are Clear Underdogs to Flip Senate
Republicans Will Win More Governorships (But Democrats Could Get More Votes)
Live Blogging the Election Returns
Did Polls Underestimate Democrats’ Latino Vote?
‘Enthusiasm Gap’ Was Largest in Presidential Swing States
Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly
When ‘House Effects’ Become ‘Bias’
2010: An Aligning Election
Are Parents Just Saying No to Marijuana Legalization?
2012 Contenders to Bet Against
Miller’s Chances of Victory Dim as Alaska Senate Write-In Count Begins
Tim Pawlenty: League-Average Politician
The Full-Body Backlash
Health Care and Bailout Votes May Have Hurt Democrats
Is Pelosi America’s Most Unpopular Politician?
The Hidden Costs of Extra Airport Security
The 800-Pound Mama Grizzly Problem
Predicting the Economy, and Obama’s Re-Election Chances
New Poll Suggests Shift in Public Views on T.S.A. Procedures
Jeter’s Predictable Predicament
Palin Support Limited Among Wealthy, College-Educated Republicans
A Quick Note to Our Readers
What The T.S.A. Hasn’t Told Us
Will the Big East and T.C.U. Live Happily Ever After?
Qatar a Questionable World Cup Host
Scott Brown Was an Outlier After All
The Democrats’ Tax Cut Dilemma
Previewing the G.O.P.’s 2012 Argument on Tax Cuts
Obama’s Tough Words for Liberals: Truth or Dare?
‘Don’t Ask’ Debate Caught in Tax Cut Crossfire
Travel Advisory
Poll Suggests Risks for Obama if Liberals Feel Taken for Granted
A Bayesian Take on Julian Assange
Popularity of ‘Don’t Ask’ Repeal May Have Drawn Republican Votes
Exurban Growth Should Bolster G.O.P. in Congressional Redistricting
Census Impact on 2012 Presidential Race is Limited
Hispanic-Majority Districts: Boon or Burden for Democrats?
Optimism for Obama Should Come With Caution
Blizzards and Airline Capacities Do Not Mix
Bloomberg v. Blizzard: How Strong Is the Mayor’s Defense?
Sarah Palin’s Nomination Chances: A Reassessment
The 2010 Seattle Seahawks: Worst. Playoff. Team. Ever?
Post-Midterm Approval Ratings Don’t Predict Re-Election Chances
Is The Hall of Fame Too Small?
How Not To Take Responsibility For a Failed Forecast
If Giuliani Is Back, It Won’t Be By Popular Demand
To Understand Assassination Threat, Look Beyond Tucson
Did Democrats Give Up in the Gun Control Debate?
A Few Reflections on Obama’s Speech in Tucson
For Democrats, a Texas-Sized Challenge
Why Carmelo Anthony Is the Ultimate Team Player (and What ‘Advanced’ Stats Miss About Him)
The Chicken, The Egg, The Media and Sarah Palin
Gaming Senate Fights in Connecticut and North Dakota
Bullish Blue Dogs Oppose Health Care Repeal
Will It Be 1995 All Over Again?
Critics Love ‘The Social Network.’ Will The Academy Defriend It?
State of the Union: Watch the Strategy, Not the Polls
Obama’s Paradox of Choice
Approval Ratings and Re-Election Odds
Poll: Egyptian Public’s Views Toward United States Are Much Improved
Egypt, Oil and Democracy
More on Egypt and the U.S.
How Much Does Bing Borrow From Google?
A Graphical Overview of the 2012 Republican Field
Awards That Best Predict Oscar Voting Favor ‘The King’s Speech’
A Close Super Bowl? Don’t Bet on It.
For Obama, Political Risks in Projecting Powerlessness
Are Democrats Better Off Than They Were 25 Years Ago?
How Will Webb’s Retirement Affect Virginia Democrats?
Under Tucson’s Shadow, Democrats To Search for Senate Candidate
The Economics of Blogging and The Huffington Post
Should Republicans Fret Over Their Presidential Field?
What Early Presidential Polls Tell Us
Budgetary Zugzwang
How Will Republicans Take Advantage of Bingaman’s Retirement?
Rasmussen Poll on Wisconsin Dispute May Be Biased
Deal for Anthony May Limit Knicks’ Upside
Decoding the Wisconsin Polls
Is Mississippi the New New Hampshire?
4 Rules to Win Your Oscar Pool
The Effects of Union Membership on Democratic Voting
In Politics, Demographics Are Not Destiny
Risks to Obama in Oil Price Instability
Hawaii Senate Seat A Likely Hold for Democrats
Few Winning Scenarios for Gingrich
Wisconsin Is a Swing State in More Ways Than One
Ensign’s Retirement May Actually Help the G.O.P.
There’s Nothing Special About Ohio
Wisconsin Dispute Could Mobilize Democratic Base
In N.C.A.A. Tournament, Overachievers Often Disappoint
In Tournament, There’s No Place Like (Close to) Home
How We Made Our N.C.A.A. Picks
Talent Is Nice, but Luck Is Vital
When 15th Is Better Than 8th: The Math Shows the Bracket Is Backward
Measuring the Impact of N.C.A.A. Injuries
Palin’s Popularity Declines Among Republicans
Big East’s Performance Is Upsetting, But It’s No Failure
Poll Finds Tentative Support, Potential Risks for Obama on Libya
Models Can Be Superficial in Politics, Too
A Note to Our Readers on the Times Pay Model and the Economics of Reporting
The Talented Mr. Romney
In Tournament of Upsets, V.C.U. Has Overcome Longest Odds
In Coverage of 2012 Candidates, the Blogs and the Beltway Divide
Poll Shows More Americans Have Unfavorable Views of Tea Party
A Brief History of Primary Polling, Part I
Butler’s Back-to-Back Championship Appearances a 7,500-to-1 Longshot
A Brief History of Primary Polling, Part II
Which Airports Have the Most Unfair Fares?
Budget Politics in the Doldrums
Vote-Counting Error In Wisconsin Points to Incompetence, Not Conspiracy
Government Shutdowns and Approval Ratings
An Imbalanced Budget Deal?
Risks to Boehner in Debt-Ceiling Brinkmanship
Trump’s Rise Highlights a Flawed Field
Rumors of the Democrats’ Demise in the Senate are Slightly Exaggerated
The High Stakes of Republicans’ Budget Vote
Gay Marriage Opponents Now in Minority
After ‘Black Friday,’ American Poker Faces Cloudy Future
Media’s Spotlight Shines Less Brightly on Palin
The Electoral Implications of Ensign’s Resignation
On the Largely Irrelevant News About Barbour Not Running for President
Poll Finds Most Americans Uncertain of Trump’s Birthplace
Beware ‘Mission Accomplished’ on Budget Debate
A Quick Note on Gas Prices and Presidential Approval
How Liberal Is President Obama?
Yes, Bin Laden’s Death Will Help Obama, but for How Long?
Second Thoughts About Obama and Bin Laden: It’s Not Just the Economy, Stupid
Overnight Polls Find Muted Improvement in Obama’s Approval Rating
A Brief History of Primary Polling, Part III
Beyond Obama’s Bin Laden Bounce
A Polling-Based Forecast of the Republican Primary Field
A Special Election May Be a Special Case
Huntsman’s Positions on Gay Rights Are Within the G.O.P. Mainstream
Wisconsin Retirement Adds to Democrats’ Burden in Senate Races
Sizing Up Iowa Without Huckabee
We Won’t Have Donald Trump to Kick Around Anymore
Paging Rick Perry: How a Southerner Could Sweep to the G.O.P. Nomination
On the Economics of Mass Transit and the Value of Common Sense
Advice for Young Journalists in the Digital Age
Now Running for President: Mitch Daniels’s Ghost
Special Election Warrants Caution for Forecasters — and for Republicans
The Ryan Budget Tipping Point
Six Months After Midterm Disaster, Hopeful Signs for Democrats
The Simple Case for Taking Herman Cain Seriously
The Not-So-Simple Case for Taking Herman Cain Seriously
Ranking Baseball’s Best Ballparks
Republicans May Need ‘Exit Strategy’ From Medicare Plan
As Mets’ Image Slumps, So Does Attendance
Running the Numbers on the Debt Ceiling Vote
On the Maddeningly Inexact Relationship Between Unemployment and Re-Election
What Do Economic Models Really Tell Us About Elections?
The 10-Word Question That Could Cost Obama the Election
Polls Find Huntsman Unacceptable to Many in Republican Base
Weiner’s Seat Could Be Scrambled in Redistricting
Questions Amid the Wreckage of Gingrich’s Campaign
The Electoral Effect of Sex Scandals
In Hedging Iowa Bets, Is Romney Going for Silver?
Debate Swings Door Open for Perry, Closed for Palin
The Governors’ Advantage in Presidential Races Is Bigger Than You Thought
Why Republicans Should Keep Expectations Modest for Winning Weiner’s Seat
Poll Finds a Shift Toward More Libertarian Views
Handicapping the Republican Field: Part I, the Top Tier
Handicapping the Republican Field: Part II, the Wild Cards
On the Claim that Republicans Want a Debt Default
Cuomo’s Presidential Moment Forms Contrast With Obama
2 Roads Diverged in an Iowa Cornfield …
Cuomo, Obama and the Realm of the Possible
The Future of Same-Sex Marriage Ballot Measures
The Danger in Counting on Markets to Drive a Debt-Limit Deal
How Tim Pawlenty Is Like RC Cola
Calling Foul on N.B.A.’s Claims of Financial Distress
N.B.A. Disputes Forbes Analysis Suggesting League is Profitable
Why the Republicans Resist Compromise
Liberal Democrats Have Leverage on Debt Deal
In Coverage of Jobs Report, Misplaced Attention to Horse Race
Freshmen Republicans Push House Toward Right
In California, a Not-So-Special Performance for Democrats
G.O.P.’s No-Tax Stance Is Outside Political Mainstream
Nobody Wins the Debt Default Blame Game
A Bad Economy Could Harm House Republicans
Is Obama Against Romney a Toss-Up?
Two Paths in Budget Debate and in 2012
G.O.P. Governors Swing Right, Leaving Voters Behind
Unfavorable Ratings for Both Major Parties Near Record Highs
Speaker Boehner’s Big Gamble
Washington Is Out of Touch. How About Wall Street?
Romney and Perry: Dual Front-Runners?
It’s All Over but the Face-Saving?
Surveying the Electoral Damage of the Debt Debate
Boehner’s Three-Legged Stool of Doom
How Boehner’s Bill Has Hurt, and How It Could Help, Republicans
How Far Will Republicans Go to Avoid Defense Cuts?
The Fine Print on the Debt Deal
What the White House Left on the Table
Double Dip or Not, Economy Is Falling Further Behind
The Stock Market Is the Least of Obama’s Worries
Debt Deal Could Be a Job-Killer For Incumbents
Why S.&P.’s Ratings Are Substandard and Porous
Long-Term Investors Can Relax (a Little)
Reading the Wisconsin Recall Vote
Wisc. Results Suggest Recall of Governor Would Be Close
G.O.P. House Majority at Risk
Why Ames Actually Matters
You’ve Just Won the Ames Straw Poll; What Are You Going to Do Next?
Is Iowa Irrelevant?
Pondering Perry’s Electability
Confidence in Obama, and in the Economy, Declines
There’s Room for More G.O.P. Candidates
Why Another Democrat Wouldn’t Do Better Than Obama in 2012
Perry Surges in Polls, Testing Romney’s Strategy
A New York Hurricane Could Be a Multibillion-Dollar Catastrophe
How Irene Lived Up to the Hype
Despite Keys, Obama Is No Lock
The North Dakota Paradox
In Jobs Data, ‘Surprises’ Mean Bad News
Bachmann’s Steep Path to the Nomination
Race to Replace Weiner Down to the Wire
Electability a Primary Liability for Perry
‘Jobs, Jobs, Jobs’ Versus the S-Word
‘Keys to the White House’ Historian Responds
Republicans Are Clear Favorites in New York and Nevada Special Elections
A Guide to Cutting Through Special-Election Spin
For Democrats, It’s 2010 All Over Again
Pennsylvania Electoral College Plan Could Backfire on G.O.P.
Would Al Gore Have Won in 2000 Without the Electoral College?
Views of Perry Turn More Negative Since First Debate
Romney Leads Endorsement Race
The Case for Buying Low on Perry
Is Christie the Anti-Perry or the Anti-Romney?
September Collapse of Red Sox Could Be Worst Ever
Christie, Clinton and the Calendar
Bill Buckner Strikes Again
Perry Slumps in Polls, but Not to Romney’s Gain
The Price of Running Late, Part 1
A West Virginia Forecast: High Uncertainty
How to Know Whether Cain Is Able
Police Clashes Spur Coverage of Wall Street Protests
New Hampshire’s Contrarian Streak
Tonight’s Debate Deserves the Hype
A Slow but Unsteady Debate for Perry
Early New Hampshire Primary Could Backfire on Romney
The Geography of Occupying Wall Street (and Everywhere Else)
Gallup Poll Is First to Find Plurality Support for Marijuana Legalization
Vegas Debate: A Game of Seven-Candidate Draw?
Romney’s Premature Perry Panic
Herman Cain, Outlier
Herman Cain and the Hubris of Experts
Media Distrust May Shield Cain From the Right’s Critiques
The Pawlenty Surge Was Never Coming
Harassment Allegations Could Cut at Core of Cain’s Appeal
Choose Obama’s Re-Election Adventure
It’s Not Too Late for Imprudent Speculation About Other Republican Candidates
Cain: Up, Down or Sideways?
Gingrich Rises in Polls But Has Major Obstacles to Nomination
Is Perry Toast?
The Gingrich Surge Has Come
Romney’s Early-State Obstacle Course
A ‘Radical Centrist’ View on Election Forecasting
Which Economic Indicators Best Predict Presidential Elections?
Romney’s Making the Right Play in Iowa
In the Land of the Salamanders, the Newt is King
Gingrich, Immigration and ‘What Would Reagan Do?’
Romney Dominating Race for Endorsements
Newspaper’s Endorsement Has Been Leading Indicator in New Hampshire
The Buyer’s Remorse Primary
Does Romney Have a Moderate Problem?
Mistrust of Institutions May Touch G.O.P. Itself
How Safe Is Gingrich’s Lead in Iowa?
Other Than That, Mr. Cain, How Was the Campaign?
Gingrich’s Unimpeachable Conservative Credential
The Real G.O.P. Dark Horse: None of the Above
After $10,000 Offer, Some Bet Against Romney
Jon Huntsman’s Path to Victory
A First Iowa Forecast: Race Is Still Wide Open
Gingrich Momentum Slows, Polls Suggest
How Our Primary Forecasts Work
Do Iowa Polls Predict New Hampshire Results?
Des Moines Register Endorsement Has a Mixed Predictive Track Record
Paul Moves Into Lead in Iowa Forecast
Explaining Obama’s Approval Rating Bounce
In Iowa, Conservative Republicans Have Overachieved Polls
Paul’s Influence Doesn’t Just Depend on Him
How Can Romney Lose?
A Snapshot of the Race for the Senate
Polling Gridlock in Iowa Could Produce Last-Minute Momentum
New Iowa Poll May Understate Paul’s Support
The Santorum Surge in Iowa and Beyond
Our Smartest and Dumbest Columns of 2011
Iowa Update: Slow and Steady May Win the Race for Romney
Amid Lead for Romney in Iowa Poll, Momentum for Santorum
In Iowa, Rick Perry Is Stuck in the Second Tier
Iowa Race Tightens in Final 48 Hours
Lunchtime Polling Update
In Iowa, Six Candidates Compete to Beat Expectations
Why I’d Bet on Santorum (and Against My Model)
Live Blogging the Iowa Caucuses
Romney’s Ugly Win May Be a Charm
Perry, Perry, Quite Contrary
First Post-Iowa Polls Show Bounce for Santorum
Iowan Casts Doubt on Winner of Caucus
Romney Leads South Carolina Polls
Beating Romney in N.H. Would Require Historic Upset
Vote Result From Disputed Precinct Deemed Official
Diverging Objectives in N.H. for G.O.P. Candidates
Some Signs in Polls That Santorum’s Momentum Has Stalled
Huntsman Has Momentum, but He Lacks Time
Ground Game Determines Candidates’ Strength
New Hampshire Primary Overview and Forecast
Analysis From the New Hampshire Primary
Romney Looks Strong in South Carolina and Beyond
Polls Show Gains for Romney — But Not in South Carolina
Intraparty Attacks Could Be November Liability for Romney
Romney-Obama: No Popularity Contest
Backing of Evangelicals Could Resuscitate Santorum in South Carolina
Before Citing a Poll, Read the Fine Print
Huntsman Withdrawal Should Aid Romney
National Polls Suggest Romney Is Overwhelming Favorite for G.O.P. Nomination
The Myth of ‘Anybody but Romney’
Does Gingrich Have Momentum in South Carolina?
Perry’s Voters May Not Flock to Gingrich
Gingrich Tied With Romney in South Carolina Forecast
The Semantics and Statistics of Santorum’s Win in Iowa
Romney’s ‘Prevent Defense’ Yielding Big Gains to Opponents
Nominating Fight Wears on Romney’s Favorability Ratings
Gingrich Is Well-Positioned as South Carolina Votes
South Carolina Primary Overview and Forecast
Live Coverage of the South Carolina Primary
Did Gingrich’s Win Break the Paradigm?
New Florida Polls Show Big Swing to Gingrich
Some Signs G.O.P. Establishment’s Backing of Romney Is Tenuous
Reagan Count: Gingrich 55, Romney 6
The Florida State of Play
Polls Suggest Gingrich’s Support May Have Peaked
Gingrich Enters Debate Needing One More Comeback
In Florida Debate, Gingrich Ignores Lessons of Recent History
Consensus of Polls Shows Romney Up in Florida
Advantage Romney in February, but Risks Abound
Gingrich Upset Chances Dwindle in New Florida Polls
Polls Diverge, but All Point to a Romney Win
The Incredible Shrinking Primary Bounce
Florida Primary Overview and Forecast
Live Coverage of the Florida Primary
Romney Wins, but Turnout Lags
Five Paths Forward for G.O.P. Nomination
Romney Is a Clear Favorite in Nevada, Arizona and Michigan; Ohio Is a Tossup
Obama’s Magic Number? 150,000 Jobs Per Month
The Nevada Caucus: Look for Romney to Win and Paul to Outperform
Nevada Caucus Updates
One Test Left for Romney: The Midwest
What We Learned from Nevada
The High Stakes in Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri
Live Coverage: Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri
G.O.P. Race Has Hallmarks of Prolonged Battle
Obama’s Jobs Bounce
The Bettor’s Case for Santorum
Maine Caucus Offers an Opportunity for Paul
Jeremy Lin Is No Fluke
How Maine Helps Romney
Could Ron Paul Still Win Maine?
Down in Michigan Polls, Romney Needs to Find His Base
The Fundamentals Now Favor Obama
Romney’s Tenuous Electability Edge
Santorum’s Surge Holds Steady So Far
Santorum and the Emphasis on Social Issues
In Michigan, Momentum for Romney?
Romney’s Money Problems
Mormon Voters Raise Romney’s Advantage in Arizona
In Michigan, Is Santorum Sinking or Steadying?
Romney Takes Michigan Forecast Lead
The G.O.P.’s Fuzzy Delegate Math
Stress-Testing Romney’s Michigan Edge
Michigan Forecast Update: Romney’s Lead Looks More Tenuous
Examining Michigan’s Delegate Math
After Many Momentum Shifts, Michigan Is Too Close to Call
Romney Poised for Big Win in Arizona
Live Coverage: the Michigan and Arizona Primaries
The Meaning of Michigan
Democrats Favored to Pick Up Snowe Seat
A Warning on the Accuracy of Primary Polls
Santorum Remains Modest Favorite in Ohio
In Washington Caucus, Expect the Unexpected
Washington Keeps Romney on Winning Track
Why Romney Wants to Be Like Michael Dukakis
State-by-State Analysis: Romney Could Win Majority of Super Tuesday Delegates
Santorum Slumps in Super Tuesday Polls
Super Tuesday Delegate Projection Update
A Guide to Super Tuesday Possibilities
Romney and the Majority Track
Live Coverage: Super Tuesday
A Predictable Super Tuesday
How Would Santorum Do Without Gingrich?
How Daunting Is Santorum’s Delegate Math?
Kansas Offers Santorum Chance for Big Delegate Grab
In G.O.P. Nomination Race, Geography Has Been Destiny
Approval Ratings, Gas Prices and Statistical Noise
Polling in Deep South Has Posed Challenges
FiveThirtyEight Picks the N.C.A.A. Bracket
What’s at Stake in Alabama and Mississippi
Live Coverage: Alabama and Mississippi Primaries
Why Is Santorum Overperforming His Poll Numbers?
For Romney and Santorum, a Battle of Chicago Versus Illinois
In Need of a Game Change, Santorum Plays Small Ball
In Illinois, Santorum’s Chance at Nomination Is Slipping Away
Romney’s Slightly Exaggerated Advertising Edge
Live Coverage: the Illinois Primary
G.O.P. Nomination Becoming a One-Man Race
Introducing the Romney Magic Numbers Calculator
Etch A Sketch Highlights Missed Opportunities for Romney’s Rivals
G.O.P. Campaign Could End Soon — But Not in Louisiana
Models Based on ‘Fundamentals’ Have Failed at Predicting Presidential Elections
For a Romney Running Mate, Don’t Bet on a Governor
Polls Show Romney on Track for Win in Wisconsin
Supreme Court May Be Most Conservative in Modern History
Complacency a Threat to Romney in Wisconsin
Romney Could Net 50 Delegates From Maryland and D.C.
Counterintuitive Theories on Obama and Supreme Court Run Against Polling Evidence
Live Coverage of the Wisconsin, Maryland and D.C. Primaries
Romney’s Michigan Win Stands as Climactic Moment in Campaign
What Does Santorum’s Future Hold?
Notes on Poll-Watching, as Shift Toward General Election Season Begins
Do Romney’s Favorability Ratings Matter?
The Overrated Vice Presidential Home-State Effect
Arizona Is (Probably) Not a Swing State
Lugar Loss Could Provide Pickup Opportunity for Democrats
North Carolina’s Ban on Gay Marriage Appears Likely to Pass
Has Obama’s Magic Jobs Number Changed?
Moderate Republicans Fall Away in the Senate
Support for Gay Marriage Outweighs Opposition in Polls
Gay Marriage and the Democratic Base
A 30,000-Foot View on the Presidential Race
Democrats’ Odds of Retaining Senate Improve
Swing Voters and Elastic States
In Wisconsin, Walker Is Likely to Survive Recall
Economically, Obama Is No Jimmy Carter
Economy, and Obama, Mired in Down Data
Late Polls Find Walker Is Still Favored
Governors’ Races Can Be a Contrary Indicator for Presidential Elections
Election Forecast: Obama Begins With Tenuous Advantage
A Guide to Forecast Model Updates
Statistical Noise in Election Polls
What Obama’s Immigration Decision Might Mean for 2012
Hispanic Voters Less Plentiful in Swing States
Outlier Polls Are No Substitute for News
Calculating ‘House Effects’ of Polling Firms
Do Democrats Have a Shot at the House?
The Problems With Forecasting and How to Get Better at It
Details of Health Care Ruling Could Be Lost on Public
Overconfidence Suggested in Supreme Court Predictions
In Health Ruling, Relief for Obama but a Blow to Conventional Wisdom
June 29: Obama Rises to 67.8 Percent
July 2: Obama’s Lead Holds, but Manufacturing Report Could Mean Trouble
July 3: No Polling Fireworks on Eve of Holiday
Measuring the Effect of the Economy on Elections
July 5: Waiting for Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
Three Questions After the June Jobs Report
July 6: Obama Forecast Falls Slightly After Jobs News
July 9: Poll Doldrums
July 10: Romney Edges Up After Busy Poll Day
July 11: Has Anything Changed in the Presidential Race?
Why Obama May Be Stronger Than His Approval Ratings
July 12: Some Noisy News, but Little Change in Forecast
July 13: Obama Forecast Buoyed by Stock Rally
In Search for Female Running Mate, a Shortlist for Romney
July 14: Another Recount in Florida?
Measuring the Effects of Voter Identification Laws
Keeping Lin Should Make Financial Sense for the Knicks
July 16: Obama Gains Ground From Ohio Poll
Is Romney Overreacting to Bain Attacks?
July 17: Obama’s Re-election Chances Fall on Gloomy G.D.P. Forecast
Let’s Play Medalball!
July 18: New Polls, but Little Change in Horse Race
Does Romney Have an Edge From Likely Voter Polls?
July 19: Better Numbers for Romney in Virginia
July 20: Little Change in Presidential Forecast
July 21: Polls Show Forward Movement for Obama in Florida
Do Presidential Polls Break Toward Challengers?
July 23: Is Minnesota a Battleground Again?
State and National Polls Tell Different Tales About State of Campaign
July 24: The Incredibly Steady Presidential Race
July 25: Romney Gains in Tracking Polls
July 26: The Calm Before Critical Economic News
What the New G.D.P. Figures Mean for the Election
July 27: Ohio Polls Show Trouble for Romney
July 28: Missouri Slipping Away From Democrats
Which Olympic Records Get Shattered?
July 30: Forecast Stays Steady With 99 Days to Go
Pennsylvania Flaunts Its Importance
July 31: Obama Forecast Improves on Data Showing Faster Income Growth
Aug. 1: Obama Extends Electoral College Advantage
Aug. 2: When a Poll That Seems Like News Isn’t
July Jobs Report Likely to Preserve Status Quo
Aug. 3: A Good Week for Obama in Forecast
Aug. 4: Likely No New Blue States in November
Aug. 5: State Polls, National Polls, and Likely Voters
Aug. 6: Pace of Presidential Polling Has Slowed Considerably From 2008
Models, Models, Everywhere
Aug. 7: North Carolina Isn’t Central to Electoral Math
How Romney’s Pick of a Running Mate Could Sway the Outcome
Aug. 8: Colorado and Virginia Flip Places in Forecast
Aug. 9: National Polls Shouldn’t Panic Romney
Another Way for Romney to ‘Go Bold’? Pick a Moderate
Aug. 10: Iowa, the Forgotten Swing State
A Risky Rationale Behind Romney’s Choice of Ryan
Aug. 11: Will Ryan Pick Move the Polls?
What Are Paul Ryan’s Chances of Becoming President?
Aug. 13: Polls Have Middling Reviews for Ryan
Aug. 14: The Fog of Polling — and Ryan’s ‘Bounce’ So Far
In Senate Races, Politics Are Local Again
Aug. 15: To Bounce, or Not to Bounce
Aug. 16: Why I’m Not Buying the Romney Rally
Aug. 17: Does a Bullish Stock Market Predict a Faster Recovery?
Aug. 18: Obama Leads Big — Among Those Least Likely to Vote
Akin Comments Could Swing Missouri Senate Race
In Picking Ryan, Romney Makes an All-In Move
Aug. 20: When the Polling Gets Weird
Aug. 21: Romney Showing Improved Results in Swing State Polls
Aug. 22: Keeping Score on a Busy Polling Day
Republican Voters Could Sit Out Missouri Senate Race
Aug. 23: Seven Ways to Evaluate a Poll
Aug. 25: An Above-Average ‘Likely Voter Gap’ for Romney
Aug. 26: Little Momentum in Polls in Advance of Conventions
Aug. 27: Michigan Isn’t a Tossup
Aug. 28: A Moment of Polling Clarity
Measuring a Convention Bounce
Aug. 29: So Much Depends Upon Ohio
Base Turnout Strategy May Be Too Narrow for Romney
In Prudent Speech, Romney Seeks Role as Generic Republican
Aug. 30: Remember the Economy?
Aug. 31: TV Ratings May Be Leading Indicator of Convention Bounce
Sept. 1: Romney’s Convention Bounce Appears Middling So Far
Sept. 2: Split Verdict in Polls on Romney Convention Bounce
In Looking Back Four Years, Voters Have Short Memories
Sept. 3: Par or Bogey?
Sept. 4: The Simple Case for Why Obama Is the Favorite
Is Bad Weather Really the Reason to Move Obama’s Speech Indoors?
Sept. 5: Looking Ahead After Charlotte
Obama Would Be Big Favorite With ‘Fired Up’ Base
Sept. 6: A Referendum or a Choice?
Effect of Jobs Numbers on Presidential Race Is Uncertain
Sept. 7: Polls Find Hints of Obama Convention Bounce
Sept. 8: Conventions May Put Obama in Front-Runner’s Position
Why Weather Forecasters Are Role Models
Sept. 9: Call It as You See It
Sept. 10: Will Obama’s Bounce Hold?
Sept. 11: Florida a True Must-Win for Romney
Sept. 12: Polls Since Conventions Point to Decline in ‘Enthusiasm Gap’
Reaction to Libya Attack Could Color Poll Analysis, and Vice Versa
Sept. 13: After Convention Bounce, Holding Obama’s Polls to a Higher Standard
Sept. 14: Obama Forecast Declines on Poor Manufacturing Report
Sept. 15: Waiting on Wisconsin
Sept. 16: Watching the Clock and Awaiting the Unknown
Sept. 17: Electoral College May Not Help Obama
FiveThirtyEight Forecast: G.O.P. Senate Hopes Slipping
Sept. 18: Obama’s Bounce Erodes in Two Tracking Polls
Obama’s Lead Looks Stronger in Polls That Include Cellphones
Senate Forecast: What Has Gone Wrong for G.O.P. Candidates?
Sept. 19: A Wild Day in the Polls, but Obama Ends Up Ahead
Sept. 20: Obama’s Convention Bounce May Not Be Receding
Sept. 21: Presidential Race Changes, but Swing States Stay the Same
Sept. 22: Little Agreement Among Pollsters on ‘Enthusiasm Gap’
Sept. 23: Does Omaha Matter?
The Statistical State of the Presidential Race
Sept. 24: Deep Red Polling Mystery
Sept. 25: Romney’s Narrow Path Without Ohio
Sept. 26: Could 2012 Be Like 2008?
Sept. 27: The Impact of the ‘47 Percent’
Sept. 28: A Circular Relationship Between Political and Economic Views
Poll Averages Have No History of Consistent Partisan Bias
Sept. 29: As Iowa Goes, So May Go Romney’s Chances
Sept. 30: Romney Down a Touchdown?
New Polls Raise Chance of Electoral College Tie
Oct. 1: Is the Presidential Race Tightening Heading Into the Debates?
Oct. 2: Good News for Romney in National Polls, and Obama in Pennsylvania
First Debate Often Helps Challenger in Polls
Polls Show a Strong Debate for Romney
Oct. 3: Romney’s Electoral Challenge, and More on Debate Instant Polls
Oct. 4: Too Soon to Gauge Impact of Debate on Polls
Jobs News Makes Obama’s Case Easier
Oct. 5: Day After Debate, Strong Swing State Polls for Romney
Oct. 6: Romney Maintains Poll Momentum
Oct. 7: National Polls Show Signs of Settling
Amid Volatile Polling, Keep an Eye on Election Fundamentals
Oct. 8: A Great Poll for Romney, in Perspective
Oct. 9: Romney Erases Obama’s Convention Bounce in Forecast
Biden’s Debate Mission: Whip Up Democrats to Blunt Romney’s Gains
Oct. 10: Is Romney Leading Right Now?
In Polls, Biden Gets a Hold
Oct. 11: Obama’s Swing State ‘Firewall’ Has Brittle Foundation
Oct. 12: Romney Debate Gains Show Staying Power
G.O.P. Senate Hopes Fade, Even as Romney’s Rise, Polls Show
Oct. 13: Arizona and the Spanish-Speaking Vote
Oct. 14: Breaking the State-National Poll Stalemate
Oct. 15: Distracted by Polling Noise
No Guarantee of Obama Rebound in Second Debate
Falling Prey to the Dangerous Temptation to Cherry-Pick Polls
Instant Reaction Polls Show Narrow Obama Advantage in Second Debate
Oct. 16: Can Polls Exaggerate Bounces?
Gallup vs. the World
Oct. 18: Obama Gains in Forecast on Resiliency in Swing State Polls
Oct. 19: After Romney Gains, Should Obama Concede Florida?
Oct. 20: Calm Day in Forecast, but Volatility Ahead
‘Gender Gap’ Near Historic Highs
Oct. 21: Uncertainty Clouds Polling, but Obama Remains Electoral College Favorite
Referendum or Choice, Which Candidate Will Show Fighting Spirit?
Obama Unlikely to Get Big Debate Bounce, but a Small One Could Matter
Oct. 22: Ohio Has 50-50 Chance of Deciding Election
Oct. 23: The Virtues and Vices of Election Prediction Markets
Oct. 24: In Polls, Romney’s Momentum Seems to Have Stopped
Oct. 25: The State of the States
Oct. 26: State Poll Averages Usually Call Election Right
Oct. 27: Minnesota Moonlights as Swing State, but Ohio and Virginia Are More Crucial
Oct. 28: In Swing States, a Predictable Election?
Impact of Hurricane Sandy on Election Is Uncertain
Oct. 29: Polling Slows as Storm Wreaks Havoc
Oct. 30: What State Polls Suggest About the National Popular Vote
Oct. 31: Obama’s Electoral College ‘Firewall’ Holding in Polls
Nov. 1: The Simple Case for Saying Obama Is the Favorite
Revisiting Our February Jobs Prediction
Nov. 2: For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased
Nov. 3: Romney’s Reason to Play for Pennsylvania
State and National Polls Come Into Better Alignment
Nov. 4: Did Hurricane Sandy Blow Romney Off Course?
Nov. 5: Late Poll Gains for Obama Leave Romney With Longer Odds
Special Coverage: The 2012 Presidential Election
As Nation and Parties Change, Republicans Are at an Electoral College Disadvantage
Which Polls Fared Best (and Worst) in the 2012 Presidential Race
Turnout Steady in Swing States and Down in Others, But Many Votes Remain Uncounted
The Statistical Case Against Cabrera for M.V.P.
Democrats Unlikely to Regain House in 2014
Expansion by Big Ten May Bring Small Payoff
Where Obama and Romney Beat Their Polls
Pennsylvania Could Be a Path Forward for G.O.P.
Congressional Proposal Could Create ‘Bubble’ in Tax Code
In Silicon Valley, Technology Talent Gap Threatens G.O.P. Campaigns
When Internal Polls Mislead, a Whole Campaign May Be to Blame
Alaska: Future Swing State?
Two Senate Seats in South Carolina, but Few Democratic Prospects
Why Hillary Clinton Would Be Strong in 2016 (It’s Not Her Favorability Ratings)
A Smart Breakaway for Big East Basketball Schools
In Public ‘Conversation’ on Guns, a Rhetorical Shift
Party Identity in a Gun Cabinet
For Scott Brown, a Third Round in the Battle Against Partisan Gravity
In House of Representatives, an Arithmetic Problem
As Swing Districts Dwindle, Can a Divided House Stand?
Why It’s Hard to Score the Fiscal Deal
A Marquee B.C.S. Matchup? To Be Determined
Suspicion of Steroid Use Could Keep Bagwell and Piazza Out of Hall
In Cooperstown, a Crowded Waiting Room
Why Obama May Drive a Hard Bargain
What Is Driving Growth in Government Spending?
For Second-Term Presidents, a Shorter Honeymoon
Contemplating Obama’s Place in History, Statistically
High-Risk Primaries Could Cost Republicans in 2014
Party-Line Voting Makes Scott Brown Part of a Dying Breed in the Senate
New Rove Group Could Backfire on G.O.P.
Marco Rubio: The Electable Conservative?
Can Republicans Win the Senate in 2014?
Oscar Predictions, Election-Style
Did Democrats Get Lucky in the Electoral College?
Conservatives’ Love Affair With Christie Is Over
In Supreme Court Debate on Voting Rights Act, a Dubious Use of Statistics
Even Without Intrade, Billions Will Be Bet on 2016 Race
Election of a Pope Tests Betting Markets
For Cardinals, Advantages in Choosing an Older Pope
Among G.O.P. Voters, Little Support for Same-Sex Marriage
Parity in N.C.A.A. Means No Commanding Favorite
How Viable Is Rand Paul for 2016?
Evaluating the Odds for Florida Gulf Coast and the Rest of the Final 16 Teams
How Opinion on Same-Sex Marriage Is Changing, and What It Means
Louisville Favored in Final Four, but Wichita State Could Become Unlikeliest Champion
Explaining the Senate’s Surge in Support for Same-Sex Marriage
With Popularity Fading at Home, Is Jindal the New Romney?
In State Governments, Signs of a Healthier G.O.P.
Why Weiner’s Mayoral Bid Is a Long Shot
Donations From Colleagues Identify Vulnerable House Incumbents
Modeling the Senate’s Vote on Gun Control
The Gun Vote and 2014: Will There Be an Electoral Price?
Jason Collins Breaks a Barrier. But Will He Find Another N.B.A. Job?
How Immigration Reform and Demographics Could Change Presidential Math
Does Gomez Have a Real Chance in Massachusetts?
Sanford and the Electoral Effect of Sex Scandals
I.R.S. Targeting of Conservative Groups Could Resonate in 2014
Is There Really a Second-Term Curse?
New Audit Allegations Show Flawed Statistical Thinking
Is the Economy Saving Obama’s Approval Ratings?
Bachmann’s Retirement Reduces Electoral Risk for G.O.P.
Why Can’t Canada Win The Stanley Cup?
A Predictable Decline in Hillary Clinton’s Popularity
How Christie Can Maximize the G.O.P.’s Chances in New Jersey
Special Election Timing in New Jersey Points to a Weak G.O.P. Field
Domestic Surveillance Could Create a Divide in the 2016 Primaries
Heat’s Clutch Stats Meet Match in Spurs’ Strategy
In Massachusetts Senate Race, Odds for G.O.P. Upset Are Slim
Is Democratic Criticism on N.S.A. Hurting Obama’s Approval Rating?
LeBron’s Odds of Catching Jordan
As More Attend College, Majors Become More Career-Focused
Geography, Not Voting Rights Act, Accounts for Most Majority-Minority Districts
Same-Sex Marriage Availability Set to Double in One-Year Span
Public Opinion Shifts on Security-Liberty Balance
Senate Control in 2014 Increasingly Looks Like a Tossup
The White House Is Not a Metronome
FiveThirtyEight To Be Relaunched in Partnership with ESPN
FiveThirtyEight To Be Relaunched in Partnership with ESPN
FiveThirtyEight Job Posting: Managing Editor
Seeking Lead Writers in Sports, Politics and Economics
Seeking Lead Writers in Sports, Politics and Economics
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Job Opening: Database Journalist, Politics
Data Visualization Job Openings @ FiveThirtyEight
Status Update: Building FiveThirtyEight
FiveThirtyEight Hiring Update
FiveThirtyEight Seeks Data-Driven Freelance Writers
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FiveThirtyEight to Relaunch on March 17
Building a Bracket Is Hard This Year, But We’ll Help You Play the Odds
What the Fox Knows
We Have a 1 in 7,419,071,319 Chance of Winning Buffett’s Billion
Don’t Sleep on Villanova
A Belated Welcome to DataLab
Our NCAA Bracket Will Update Live, But Here’s Where You Can Find Our Old Data
Florida’s Odds Are Dropping
Duke’s Lehigh Loss Was Bad, But Mercer Was Worser
Is Hillary Clinton Qualified to Be President? A New Poll is Easy to Misread
FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Control
The Gators Bite Back
The DSCC Can’t Have It Both Ways
For Columnist, a Change of Tone
The NCAA Bracket: Checking Our Work
FiveThirtyEight to Commission Response to Disputed Climate Article
Cabrera’s Millions And Baseball’s Billions
The Most Impressive Run to the Final Four (And It’s Not Kentucky’s)
A Gaffe Can Matter When It Motivates the Base
Which MLB Teams Overperform in Popularity?
Which MLB Teams Overperform in Popularity?
The Distribution of Fandom in Pro Leagues
The Gender Balance in Tech, in New York And Beyond
The ‘Big Five’ in North American Pro Sports
How Rare Are Anti-Gay-Marriage Donations in Silicon Valley?
The Historic Rarity of a Double Bracket-Busting NCAA Championship Game
Kentucky Injury Makes NCAA Basketball Championship a True Toss-Up
Gender Pay Gap Tracks With Number of Women in State Legislatures
If Hank Aaron Had Never Hit a Home Run, Would He Be a Hall of Famer?
Stephen Colbert Is Popular on the Internet
Jeb Bush’s Stance on Education May Not Be That Controversial
Vance McAllister’s Days in Congress Are Probably Numbered
Like Bush, Many Republicans Are Moderate on Immigration
What If An Evil Commissioner Turned Hank Aaron’s Homers Into Singles?
Do Pulitzers Help Newspapers Keep Readers?
When April Snow Showers Blanket Spring Flowers
Why a Plan to Circumvent the Electoral College Is Probably Doomed
Fly Early, Arrive On-Time
Which Cities Sleep In, And Which Get To Work Early
Which Cities Sleep In, And Which Get To Work Early
In the NBA, It’s Not Whether You Win or Lose, It’s Whether You Beat Vegas
Stop Betting Against Gregg Popovich
To Find a Career Like Tim Duncan’s, We Have to Go Back to Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Both Republicans And Democrats Have an Age Problem
Why LA Is Still a Lakers Town
The Clippers, Like Many NBA Teams, Have a Majority-Minority Fan Base
Are White Republicans More Racist Than White Democrats?
Got a Billion Dollars? Buy the Clippers
Good News: You Won Game 7; Bad News: You’re Less Likely to Win Round 2
The Odds Michael Sam Will Be Picked in the NFL Draft
‘Inequality’ Booms on MSNBC And Fox News (CNN’s Looking For Flight 370)
Could Mitt Romney Be the New Dick Nixon?
Quick Thoughts on Michael Sam to the Rams
Fairness vs. Freedom: Is Politics Going Back to the 1970s?
Game 7 is a Great Time to Get Physical
The 2014 Election Is the Least Important in Years
Same-Sex Couples Settle Down More Often in States That Welcome Them
How Much Is Winning the (NBA Draft) Lottery Really Worth?
Our Story About What the Media Said About What Karl Rove Said About Hillary Clinton’s Health
‘Tea Party’ Has Outlived Its Usefulness
When to Sign an NBA Player to the Max
Be Skeptical of Both Piketty And His Skeptics
How to Tell Someone’s Age When All You Know Is Her Name
New York Is 85 Percent Better Than LA (According to Aggregate Personal Income in the Metropolitan Statistical Areas)
The Political Media Still Fall for the Hot-Hand Fallacy
The Stanley Cup Center of Gravity Is Somewhere in Lake Huron
In Search of America’s Best Burrito
FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: Toss-Up or Tilt GOP?
It’s Brazil’s World Cup to Lose
The Rangers Needed Better CPU Assistance
Eric Cantor’s Loss Was Like an Earthquake
How FiveThirtyEight’s World Cup Predictions Compare to Other Ratings
The History of the World Cup in 20 Charts
Brazil’s (Ugly) Win Didn’t Change Its Prospects All That Much
Spain Is Now an Underdog to Make the Knockout Stage
Most Women Like Hillary Clinton ‘Evolved’ On Gay Marriage Years Ago
The U.S. Now Has a Better Shot at the World Cup, But Still Needs a Point Against Portugal
Population Shifts Had Nothing to Do With Cantor’s Defeat
Spain Must Beat Chile If It Hopes to Advance in the World Cup
We’re Telling England There’s a Chance!
It’s Been the Americas’ World Cup
Germany’s Draw Didn’t Help the U.S.
How the Portugal Draw Boosts the U.S.’s World Cup Advancement Odds
The Outcomes of Groups A And B Will Be Decided Today
World Cup Advancement Scenarios For Groups C And D
World Cup Advancement Scenarios For Groups E And F
The FiveThirtyEight International Food Association’s 2014 World Cup
It’s Judgment Day in World Cup Groups G and H
The U.S.’s Odds of Beating Belgium And Every Other World Cup Opponent
Drafting Sophomores Is a Smart Strategy For NBA Teams
Extra Time Isn’t a Crapshoot in the Knockout Round, But Penalties Are
Updated Elo Ratings For World Cup Teams
Has the U.S. Men’s National Team Plateaued?
A Chart For Predicting Penalty-Shootout Odds in Real Time
Tim Howard Lost, But He Just Had the Best Match of the World Cup
Tim Howard Lost, But He Just Had the Best Match of the World Cup
How the NFL’s Top Receivers’ Stats Would Change If They Played With Average QBs
How Neymar’s Injury Affects Brazil’s Chances at the World Cup
It’s a Huge Upset When All the World Cup Favorites Win
Di Maria’s Injury Makes Argentina-Netherlands Almost Even
The Most Shocking Result in World Cup History
LeBron James Shouldn’t Stay in Miami Or Go to Cleveland
What Cleveland Would Look Like With LeBron James And Kevin Love
The Most Likely Scores in the World Cup Final
Germany May Be the Best National Soccer Team Ever
Germany May Be the Best National Soccer Team Ever
Carmelo Anthony’s Contract Could Doom the Knicks to Mediocrity
Should Travelers Avoid Flying Airlines That Have Had Crashes in the Past?
A Statistical Appreciation of the Washington Generals And Harlem Globetrotters
A Statistical Appreciation of the Washington Generals And Harlem Globetrotters
What is Americans’ Favorite Global Cuisine?
Which Players Will Be Most Affected by the Hall of Fame’s New Rules?
Group of Liberal New Yorkers Wants to Legalize Weed
Democrats Are Way More Obsessed With Impeachment Than Republicans
Democrats Are Way More Obsessed With Impeachment Than Republicans
Pacers And George Still Have Plenty To Play For
Pacers And George Still Have Plenty To Play For
Republicans Remain Slightly Favored To Take Control Of The Senate
What Happens To Injured NBA Stars Like Paul George?
Republicans Have More Reason Than Ever To Worry About Primary Challenges
With LeBron And Love, The Cavs Have About 65 Wins On Their Roster
Hillary Clinton Doesn’t Have A Problem On Her Left
The English Premier League Starts Today; Here’s One Reason To Watch
The Countries Where You’re Surrounded By Tourists
Most Police Don’t Live In The Cities They Serve
Is The Polling Industry In Stasis Or In Crisis?
Migration Isn’t Turning Red States Blue
FiveThirtyEight’s Senate Model Is Back And It Gives Republicans The Edge
The Senate Race In Kansas Just Got Crazy
The Senate Race In Kansas Just Got Crazy
Upheaval In The Kansas Senate Race Is Making Our Chart Kinky
NFL Week 1 Elo Ratings
Introducing NFL Elo Ratings
Polls Show Path Of Least Resistance To GOP Majority
It’s Not The End Of An Era For Men’s Tennis
Tennis Has A Big Three-And-A-Half
Registered Voter Polls Will (Usually) Overrate Democrats
NFL Week 2 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds
NFL Owners May Be Overvaluing Goodell
Senate Update: Alaska, A Frontier For Bad Polling
Senate Update: Democrats Draw Almost Even. Is It The Money?
How The FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast Model Works
NFL Week 3 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds
The Scotland Independence Polls Were Pretty Bad
Senate Update: Democrats Add By Subtraction In Kansas
How FiveThirtyEight Calculates Pollster Ratings
Senate Update: A Troubling Trend For Democrats In Colorado
An NFL Team Will Probably Win 14 Games. We Just Don’t Know Which Team.
Senate Update: When Should Democrats Panic?
MLB’s Biggest Star Is 40 (And He Just Retired). That Could Be A Problem.
NFL Week 5 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds
Yelp And Michelin Have The Same Taste In New York Restaurants
We’ve Added State-By-State Polling Detail To Our Senate Forecast Interactive
Senate Update: Lots Of Polls But Little Change
Same-Sex Marriage Is Now Legal For A Majority Of The U.S.
Senate Update: What’s The Matter With South Dakota?
NFL Week 6 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds
The ‘Maroon 6’: A Better Way To Look At The 2014 Senate Races
Royals vs. Orioles Tops Our List Of Comeback Clashes In League Championship Series
Senate Update: The Clock Is Ticking
The Polls Might Be Skewed Against Democrats — Or Republicans
NFL Week 7 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds
Senate Fundraising Totals Are A Bad Sign For Democrats
Why An Ebola Flight Ban Wouldn’t Work
The Seattle Seahawks Are Now Underdogs To Make The Playoffs
NFL Week 8 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds
Rage Against The Machines
The Democrats’ Path Of Last Resort Is Georgia
Why Did A Rasmussen Reports Poll Disappear?
Senate Update: The Republican Advantage Is Consistent But Not Decisive
Senate Update: The Swing States That Never Swung
Why The Senate Polling In Alaska Is Making Us Sweat
Senate Update: The Momentum Mirage
Senate Update: Exit To Recountland
Send Alex Gordon!
Send Alex Gordon!
Senate Update: With 4 Days Left, Here’s The State Of The Races
FiveThirtyEight’s Gubernatorial Forecasts: A Lot Of Really Close Races
Senate Update: Polls Point Increasingly To Republican Senate Win
Are The State Polls Skewed?
Is 2014 A Republican Wave?
Why Michelle Nunn Is Rooting For A Senate Runoff In Georgia
Democrats Need Chaos
Final Update: Republicans Have A 3 In 4 Chance Of Winning The Senate
Five Scenarios For The Senate Election
The Polls Were Skewed Toward Democrats
Why Polls Missed A Shocker In Virginia’s Senate Race
The NFL Should Expand To London. But First: Canada, Mexico And LA.
Week 11 NFL Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds
Here’s Proof Some Pollsters Are Putting A Thumb On The Scale
Can Alabama Afford To Lose?
FiveThirtyEight’s College Football Playoff Forecast
College Football Playoff Update: High Stakes For Florida State, UCLA
College Football Playoff Update: High Stakes For Florida State, UCLA
What’s At Stake For Every College Football Playoff Contender
College Football Playoff Update: 7 Teams Competing For 4 Positions
College Football Playoff Update: 7 Teams Competing For 4 Positions
College Football Playoff Update: TCU Promotion Shakes Up Odds
College Football Playoff Update: TCU Promotion Shakes Up Odds
Which City Has The Most Unpredictable Weather?
NFL Week 14 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds
College Football Playoff Update: Oregon Makes A Case For No. 1
College Football Playoff Update: Oregon Makes A Case For No. 1
College Football Playoff Update: Is TCU A Lock?
College Football Playoff Update: Three Teams Are Fighting For The Last Spot
College Football Playoff Update: Does Ohio State Have A Shot?
FiveThirtyEight’s Final College Football Playoff Forecast
FiveThirtyEight's Final College Football Playoff Forecast
College Football Playoff: Final Thoughts And National Championship Odds
College Football Playoff: Final Thoughts And National Championship Odds
Week 15 NFL Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds
Week 15 NFL Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds
Is Jeb Bush Too Liberal To Win The Republican Nomination In 2016?
Killing ‘The Interview’ Could Cost Sony $100 Million
Every NBA Team’s Chance Of Winning A Title By 2019
Week 16 NFL Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds
Week 17 NFL Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds: Special Seahawks Edition
Week 17 NFL Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds: Special Seahawks Edition
Assessing Andrew Wiggins, 30 Games In
Assessing Andrew Wiggins, 30 Games In
Chris Christie’s Chances Are Overrated
Week 19 NFL Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds: Divisional Round Edition
The Most Clutch Postseason Quarterback Of All Time Is Eli Manning
Romney And The GOP’s Five-Ring Circus
We’re Hiring A Managing Editor
Expand The College Football Playoff
NFL Week 20 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds: Conference Championships
NFL Week 20 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds: Conference Championships
Planes, Trains And Taxis: When To Take Public Transit From The Airport
Big Blizzards Have Become More Common In New York
The Patriots And Seahawks Are The Best. This Could Be The Worst Super Bowl Ever.
The Super Bowl Point Spread Has A Strange, Strange History
Are The Patriots Now The Greatest NFL Dynasty Of All Time?
Counterpoint: Super Bowl XLIX Was Among The Most Exciting Super Bowls Ever
Marco Rubio And The Pareto Frontier
Rich Data, Poor Data
How History Judges The Oscars’ Closest Calls
Nate Silver Talks With Sheryl Sandberg
Nate Silver Talks With Sheryl Sandberg
We’re Forecasting The 2015 U.K. General Election
Please Welcome David Firestone, FiveThirtyEight’s New Managing Editor
How We Found The Fastest Flights
A Better Way To Find The Best Flights And Avoid The Worst Airports
Virgin America Is The Michael Jordan Of Airlines
Virgin America Is The Michael Jordan Of Airlines
How FiveThirtyEight’s March Madness Bracket Works
NCAA Men’s Tournament Forecast: The Parity Is Over
How We Made Our Forecasts For The Women’s NCAA Tournament
The Odds That You'll Have A Perfect March Madness Bracket
The Odds That You’ll Have A Perfect March Madness Bracket
Less Madness, More Chalk
Duke, Arizona And Michigan State Are Biggest Tourney Gainers
Duke, Arizona And Michigan State Are Biggest Tourney Gainers
Why Harry Reid’s Retirement Will Hurt Democrats In Nevada
A Radical Proposal To Destroy The NHL’s Loser Point
Hot Takedown: An Emergency Discussion About Kentucky’s Loss, Live From Our Hotel Room
Coach Cal Blew It
There Are Few Libertarians. But Many Americans Have Libertarian Views.
How Far Is Tiger Woods Behind Jack Nicklaus’s Major-Winning Pace?
Clinton Begins The 2016 Campaign, And It’s A Toss-up
Kasich Could Be The GOP’s Moderate Backstop
A Simple, Knicks-Proof Proposal To Improve The NBA's Draft Lottery
A Simple, Knicks-Proof Proposal To Improve The NBA’s Draft Lottery
Is Bush Doomed In The General? (Or: A Lesson In Conditional Probability)
Is Vegas Underrating The Warriors?
How Google Searches Can Predict Hockey Ticket Sales
Six Things I Learned While Traveling The United Kingdom In An Airstream Trailer
Jeb Bush Has The Cash, But Not The GOP Support
The Most Diverse Cities Are Often The Most Segregated
Video: It’s Election Day In The U.K.
The Rangers Are The San Antonio Spurs Of The NHL
There Is No ‘Blue Wall’
And Now, The Roy Awards For The Best NHL Playoff Goaltending Performances
The Rangers’ Stranger And Stranger Statistical Feats
How We Calculate NBA Elo Ratings
The Best NBA Teams Of All-Time, According To Elo
Same-Sex Marriage Wins Easily In Ireland
Bill Russell’s Celtics Were Great. Tim Duncan’s Spurs Have Been Better.
Are The Rangers And Blackhawks Clutch — Or Lucky?
Are The Rangers And Blackhawks Clutch -- Or Lucky?
How To Break FIFA
How Our Women’s World Cup Model Works
Polling Is Getting Harder, But It’s A Vital Check On Power
Memo From A Bitter Rangers Fan: The NHL Just Missed A Ratings Bonanza
Memo From A Bitter Rangers Fan: The NHL Just Missed A Ratings Bonanza
LeBron’s Greatest Challenge: The NBA Finals Aren’t Kind To Underdogs
What Kyrie Irving’s Injury Could Mean For The Cavs’ Chances
‘Live By The Three, Die By The Three’ Is Mostly A Myth
Blatter’s Reign At FIFA Hasn’t Helped Soccer’s Poor
Why The Warriors Are So Tough To Beat
Why The Warriors Are So Tough To Beat
The Iowa Straw Poll Is Dead. What Could Kill Off The Iowa Caucus?
Yeah, The Blackhawks Are A Dynasty
The Best And Worst Airlines, Airports And Flights, Summer 2015 Update
Black Americans Are Killed At 12 Times The Rate Of People In Other Developed Countries
Black Americans Are Killed At 12 Times The Rate Of People In Other Developed Countries
Leave O’Hare Airport Alone
Leave O’Hare Airport Alone
Change Doesn't Usually Come This Fast
Change Doesn’t Usually Come This Fast
The U.S. Women May Be The Greatest World Cup Dynasty
The U.S. Women May Be The Greatest World Cup Dynasty
The Polls Were Bad in Greece. The Conventional Wisdom Was Worse.
Bernie Sanders Could Win Iowa And New Hampshire. Then Lose Everywhere Else.
Bernie Sanders Could Win Iowa And New Hampshire. Then Lose Everywhere Else.
Republicans Are Acting Like Democrats. Democrats Are Acting Like Republicans.
Republicans Are Acting Like Democrats. Democrats Are Acting Like Republicans.
The Bernie Sanders Surge Is About Bernie, Not Hillary
Donald Trump Is The World’s Greatest Troll
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
Joe Biden’s Schrödinger’s Cat Campaign
Did Your Team Blow It At The Trade Deadline?
Donald Trump’s Six Stages Of Doom
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
Hillary Clinton’s Inevitable Problems
This Is How Bernie Sanders Could Win
Donald Trump Is Running A Perpetual Attention Machine
Donald Trump Is Running A Perpetual Attention Machine
Public Transit Should Be Uber’s New Best Friend
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
Stop Comparing Donald Trump And Bernie Sanders
Hillary Clinton Is Stuck In A Poll-Deflating Feedback Loop
Scott Walker May Have Been A Terrible Candidate — Or An Unlucky One
Scott Walker May Have Been A Terrible Candidate — Or An Unlucky One
It’s Time For Drew Brees And The Saints To Break Up
Republicans Were More United Than Ever Under John Boehner
Republicans Were More United Than Ever Under John Boehner
2015-16 CARMELO NBA Projections: Marcus Smart [project]
We’re Predicting The Career Of Every NBA Player. Here’s How.
The Media Underestimated Hillary Clinton, But Overestimated Her Debate
The Media Underestimated Hillary Clinton, But Overestimated Her Debate
2015-16 NBA Preview: Andrew Wiggins Might Be The Next Carmelo
2015-16 NBA Preview: Andrew Wiggins Might Be The Next Carmelo
How The Media Blew The Biden Story
How The Media Blew The Biden Story
The 53 Best Franchise Players In The NBA
Maybe Republicans Really Are In Disarray
Yeah, Jeb Bush Is Probably Toast
Yeah, Jeb Bush Is Probably Toast
Here’s How Our College Football Playoff Predictions Work
We Have (Almost) No Idea What The Economy Will Look Like On Election Day
Just Win, Baby (And You’ll Probably Make The College Football Playoff)
John Kasich Is So ‘Underrated,’ He’s Overrated
If Donald Trump Is The Problem, Mitt Romney Isn’t The Solution
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
Will Your Holiday Flight Be On Time?
How Republicans And Polls Enable Donald Trump
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
The Fifth Republican Debate Ended In A Nine-Way Draw
Kristaps Porzingis Is A Freak — And Potentially A Superstar
Three Theories Of Donald Trump’s Rise
How We’re Forecasting The Primaries*
Who’s Winning Iowa And New Hampshire?
The Glass-Half-Empty Case Against Ted Cruz
The GOP Primary, In One Debate
Why Some GOP Candidates Aren’t Taking The Fight To Trump
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
LeBron’s Cavs Are The Best Team Ever To Fire Its Coach Midseason
The Republican Party May Be Failing
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
What Would The Republican Race Look Like Without Trump?
What Happens If Bernie Sanders Wins Iowa
Four Roads Out Of Iowa For Republicans
Hillary Clinton May Win Iowa After All
Why Iowa Matters For Trump And Sanders
Iowa Is The Hardest State To Poll
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
Marco Rubio Stole Ted Cruz’s Iowa Bounce
Maybe Chris Christie Should Have Taken On Donald Trump
We Thought Marco Rubio Lost The Debate, But New Hampshire Might Think Differently
Why Young Democrats Love Bernie Sanders
Why Young Democrats Love Bernie Sanders
What’s At Stake In New Hampshire’s Republican Primary
Republicans Need To Treat Donald Trump As The Front-Runner
Elections Podcast: The New Hampshire Results
Why Chris Christie Failed
Superdelegates Might Not Save Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders’s Path To The Nomination
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
What’s At Stake In The South Carolina Republican Primary
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
Bernie Sanders Doesn’t Need Momentum — He Needs To Win These States
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
Christie’s Endorsement Of Trump Totally Makes Sense
Don’t Assume Conservatives Will Rally Behind Trump
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
Marco Rubio Never Had A Base
Marco Rubio Never Had A Base [video]
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
How FiveThirtyEight Is Forecasting The 2016 NCAA Tournament
Can Bernie Sanders Pull Off An Upset In Ohio?
Clinton Is Following Obama’s Path To The Nomination
Republicans Could Do A Lot Worse Than Merrick Garland Under President Clinton — Or President Trump
No. 16 Seeds Are Due*
Michigan State And The Biggest NCAA Tournament Upsets Ever
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
Past Terrorist Attacks Helped Trump Capitalize On Anti-Muslim Sentiment
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
It’s Really Hard To Get Bernie Sanders 988 More Delegates
How Trump Hacked The Media
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
Ted Cruz, Not Paul Ryan, Would Probably Win A Contested Convention
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
A State-By-State Roadmap For The Rest Of The Republican Primary
Clinton Is Winning The States That Look Like The Democratic Party
More Democrats Are Feeling The Bern, Probably
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
Today Is Clinton’s Chance To End The ‘Groundhog Day’ Campaign
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose*
Republicans In Competitive Races Have Shunned Trump
The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support
Why Republican Voters Decided On Trump
Elections Podcast: Should Congressional Republicans Be Worried About Trump?
How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump
The Hidden Importance Of The Sanders Voter
Elections Podcast: The General Election Polls Tighten
The System Isn’t ‘Rigged’ Against Sanders
Pollster Ratings [project]
The State Of The Polls, 2016
Hispanic Voters Will Decide Bernie Sanders’s Fate in California
Hillary Clinton Will Be Nominated Because More Democrats Are Voting For Her
Las Vegas Is A Terrible Place For An NHL Team
Las Vegas Is A Terrible Place For An NHL Team
2016 Election Forecast [project]
A User’s Guide To FiveThirtyEight’s 2016 General Election Forecast
Donald Trump Has A 20 Percent Chance Of Becoming President
Even With Kevin Durant, The Warriors Probably Won’t Win 73 Games Again
Election Update: Swing State Polls And National Polls Basically Say The Same Thing
What’s New In Our NBA Projections For 2016-17
Election Update: Nevada Is Still A Swing State
Election Update: When To Freak Out About Shocking New Polls
Why Mike Pence Was Trump’s Least Worst Choice
Election Update: 10 Questions About Where The 2016 Race Stands
Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Is As Safe As Kerry’s Was In 2004
Nate Silver And John Dickerson Talk About Melania Trump’s Borrowed Speech
If Americans Perceive A World In Chaos, Will They Turn To Trump?
Nate Silver And Molly Ball Talk The Future Of The GOP
Only 20 Percent Of Voters Are ‘Real Americans‘
Donald Trump’s Convention Is Flirting With Disaster
Donald Trump Goes ‘All-In.’ How Will Clinton Respond?
Tim Kaine Wouldn’t Do Much To Help Clinton Win The Election
Election Update: Is Trump Getting A Convention Bump?
Election Update: Trump Gets Convention Bounce, Drawing Polls To Dead Heat
Was The Democratic Primary A Close Call Or A Landslide?
Was The Democratic Primary A Close Call Or A Landslide?
Election Update: Why Our Model Is Bullish On Trump, For Now
Where The Election Goes From Here
Election Update: Clinton’s Bounce Appears Bigger Than Trump’s
Election Update: Is Clinton’s Lead A Bounce Or A New Equilibrium?
Election Update: Trump’s Slump Deepens In The Polls
Election Update: Polls Show Pennsylvania Back In Clinton’s Firewall
Which Countries Medal In The Sports That People Care About?
Election Update: When One Poll Makes A Big Difference
What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like
Election Update: 10 Big Questions About The Election, Revisited
Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Is Clear And Steady
Trump Is Doubling Down On A Losing Strategy
Election Update: National Polls Show The Race Tightening — But State Polls Don’t
Election Update: Leave The LA Times Poll Alone!
Election Update: The Blue State Polling Abyss
Election Update: It’s Too Soon For Clinton To Run Out The Clock
Election Update: As The Race Tightens, Don’t Assume The Electoral College Will Save Clinton
Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Keeps Shrinking
Election Update: The Swing States Are Tightening, Too
Is A 50-State Poll As Good As 50 State Polls?
Election Update: Has Clinton’s ‘Bad Weekend’ Moved The Polls?
Election Update: Democrats Should Panic … If The Polls Still Look Like This In A Week
Senate Forecast: The Map Favors Democrats, Ever So Slightly
Clinton’s Leading In Exactly The States She Needs To Win
Election Update: The Case For And Against Democratic Panic
Election Update: Where The Race Stands Heading Into The First Debate
Election Update: Polls Show A Close Race (So Our Model Does Too)
Clinton Won The Debate, Which Means She’s Likely To Gain In The Polls
Election Update: Early Polls Suggest A Post-Debate Bounce For Clinton
Election Update: Even A Small Post-Debate Bounce Could Make A Big Difference For Clinton
Election Update: Clinton’s Debate Performance Is Helping Her In Swing States
Election Update: The Craziest End To The 2016 Campaign Runs Through New Mexico
Election Update: How Big Is Hillary Clinton’s Lead?
Election Update: North Carolina Is Becoming A Problem For Trump
Election Update: Maybe It’s Time For Ohio And Pennsylvania To Part Ways
Election Update: Are Trump’s Polls Getting Worse?
The Bottom Could Fall Out For Trump
The Second Debate Probably Didn’t Help Trump, And He Needed Help
Election Update: Polls Show Potential Fallout From Trump Tape
Election Update: Women Are Defeating Donald Trump
Election Update: Post-Debate Polls Show Trump Still In Big Trouble
Trump Isn’t Teflon
Election Update: Watch New Hampshire For Signs Of A Trump Comeback
Election Update: Where The Race Stands With Three Weeks To Go
Here’s How We’re Forecasting The 4-Way Presidential Race In Utah
Election Update: Clinton’s Big Lead Means A Steadier Forecast
Election Update: Clinton’s Texas Opportunity (And Her Texas Problem)
Clinton Probably Finished Off Trump Last Night
Election Update: ‘Likely Voters’ Aren’t Helping Trump Much
Election Update: There Are 4 Ways This Election Can End — And 3 Involve Clinton Winning
Election Update: Trump May Depress Republican Turnout, Spelling Disaster For The GOP
Election Update: Why Our Model Is More Bullish Than Others On Trump
Election Update: Where Are The Undecided Voters?
Election Update: Is The Presidential Race Tightening?
Election Update: The Polls Disagree, And That’s OK
Elections Podcast Countdown: 11 Days
Election Update: The FBI Is Back — This Time With Anthony Weiner
Election Update: Four Ways Forward For Clinton After The FBI News
Election Update: What If Clinton Wins North Carolina — And Loses Pennsylvania?
Election Update: Comey Or Not, Trump Continues To Narrow Gap With Clinton
The Odds Of An Electoral College-Popular Vote Split Are Increasing
Election Update: Yes, Donald Trump Has A Path To Victory
Trump’s Chance Of Victory Has Doubled In The Last Two Weeks
Election Update: The How-Full-Is-This-Glass Election
Election Update: Why Clinton’s Position Is Worse Than Obama’s
Election Update: National Polls Show Clinton’s Lead Stabilizing — State Polls, Not So Much
Election Update: The Campaign Is Almost Over, And Here’s Where We Stand
Election Update: Don’t Ignore The Polls — Clinton Leads, But It’s A Close Race
How Much Did Comey Hurt Clinton’s Chances?
Election Update: The State Of The States
Actualización sobre las elecciones: El Estado de los Estados
Election Update: Clinton Gains, And The Polls Magically Converge
Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
Live Election Night Forecast [project]
What A Difference 2 Percentage Points Makes
Why FiveThirtyEight Gave Trump A Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else
Will The Electoral College Doom The Democrats Again?
Which Republican Senators Are Most Likely To Fight Trump?
Politics Podcast: What Would You Change About American Democracy?
Education, Not Income, Predicted Who Would Vote For Trump
Why I Support An Election Audit, Even Though It’s Unlikely To Change The Outcome
War Is Peace. Freedom Is Slavery. Trump Won In A Landslide.
Pollsters Probably Didn’t Talk To Enough White Voters Without College Degrees
We Updated Our College Football Model, And Now Michigan Looks Slightly Less Screwed
Here Are The Russia Hawks Who Could Kill Tillerson’s Nomination
Nate Silver Interviews Michael Lewis About His New Book, ‘The Undoing Project’
Democrats Need To Win Elections, Not Flip Electors
Make College Football Great Again
Can You Trust Trump’s Approval Rating Polls?
The Real Story Of 2016
The Electoral College Blind Spot
It Wasn’t Clinton’s Election To Lose
The Invisible Undecided Voter
The Long March Ahead For Democrats
Ohio Was A Bellwether After All
Why Early Voting Was Overhyped
Trump Is Doing What He Said He’d Do
Before You Call Your Senator, Read This On How Our Trump Scores Work
14 Versions Of Trump’s Presidency, From #MAGA To Impeachment
Is It Time To Bring Back The Hartford Whalers?
Donald Trump Had A Superior Electoral College Strategy
The Super Bowl Wasn’t Really Like The Election
Clinton’s Ground Game Didn’t Cost Her The Election
What Makes A Trump Story Stick
Why Polls Differ On Trump’s Popularity
Why You Shouldn’t Always Trust The Inside Scoop
How Popular Is Donald Trump? [project]
How We’re Tracking Donald Trump’s Approval Ratings
Nate Silver And Mark Cuban Talk A Lot Of Politics And A Little Basketball
Why It’s So Hard For The GOP To Agree On Health Care
2017 March Madness Predictions [project]
It’s Crowded At The Top Of The NCAA Tournament
How FiveThirtyEight Is Forecasting The 2017 NCAA Tournament
Politics Podcast: The Health Of The GOP’s Health Care Bill
Trump Is Tempting Fate On Health Care
The GOP Health Care Bill Is Unpopular Even In Republican Districts
Trump Has No Good Options On Health Care
Emergency Health Care Podcast: Live From Boise
Trump Doesn’t Have A Mandate For Paul Ryan’s Agenda
The Gorsuch Filibuster Shows The Liberal Base’s Clout
Nuking The Filibuster May Hurt Republicans In The Long Run
Are The Cavs Overrated Or Underrated?
Handicapping The Georgia 6 Special Election
The Save Ruined Relief Pitching. The Goose Egg Can Fix It.
The U.K. Snap Election Is Riskier Than It Seems
Trump Probably Won’t Defy Midterm Gravity
Marine Le Pen Is In A Much Deeper Hole Than Trump Ever Was
The Comey Letter Probably Cost Clinton The Election
The Health Care Bill Could Be A Job-Killer For GOP Incumbents
Our 2017 Goose-Egg Reliever Rankings Are Here
Conventional Wisdom May Be Contaminating Polls
How To Know if The Trump-Russia Story Has Momentum
Will Donald Trump Be Impeached?
Donald Trump’s Base Is Shrinking
LeBron James Destroyed Our Elo Ratings, But Can He Beat The Warriors Again?
Andrew Miller Doesn’t Have Any Saves, And He’s The Best Reliever In Baseball
Are The U.K. Polls Skewed?
Are Democrats Or Republicans Winning The Race For Congress? [project]
The Three Scenarios For The U.K. Election
The U.K. Election Wasn’t That Much Of A Shock
Politics Podcast: Who Makes Up The Base?
Donald Trump Is Making Europe Liberal Again
Why The Georgia Special Election Matters
Where Can Democrats Win?
Will The Senate Pass Its Health Care Bill?
Mitch McConnell Isn’t Playing 13-Dimensional Chess
What’s New In Our NBA Player Projections For 2017-18
Wait, Is Lonzo Ball The Next Russell Westbrook?
Wait, Is Lonzo Ball The Next Russell Westbrook? [video]
Paul George’s Legacy Could Be Dr. J’s … Or Danny Granger’s [video]
Next Season’s NBA Heavyweights: Warriors, Cavs, Spurs, Rockets … Timberwolves?
Do The Celtics Have Enough Star Power To Win a Title? Not Yet.
Kenley Jansen Is Too Busy Helping The Dodgers Win To Get Saves
We Got Drunk On Margaritas For Science
We Got Drunk On Margaritas For Science [video]
If Hillary Clinton Had Won [project]
Trump And Congress Are Probably On A Collision Course Over Russia
McConnell Overreached On Health Care And Paid The Price
Why A Trump Pivot Might Backfire
Baseball Is Finally Realizing That The Save Is Dumb
Trump’s Populism Isn’t Popular — But That’s On Him, Not Bannon
Politics Podcast: How Trump Talks About Race
7 Rules For Reading Trump’s Approval Rating
2017 NFL Predictions [project]
We’re Still Looking For The New Goose Gossage
The Media Has A Probability Problem
Never Tweet, Mr. President
The Media Needs To Stop Rationalizing President Trump’s Behavior
How Our 2017 College Football Playoff Predictions Work
2017-18 NBA Predictions [project]
Why The Warriors And Cavs Are Still Big Favorites
What Will Virginia And New Jersey Tell Us About Trump?
Kenley Jansen Is The Model Of A Modern Reliever
The Fundamentals Favor Democrats In 2018
Would Republicans Be Better Off If The Democrat Won In Alabama?
Democrats Missed A Chance To Draw A Line In The Sand On Sexual Misconduct
Lots Of Alabama Voters Care About Roy Moore’s Scandals
Why Democrats Are Finally Pushing Franken To Resign
What The Hell Is Happening With These Alabama Polls?
Republicans Shouldn’t Assume Roy Moore Was An Outlier
Republicans Are Taking Voter Concerns About The Tax Bill Too Literally
Are Democrats’ Senate Chances In 2018 Overrated?
We Drew 2,568 Congressional Districts By Hand. Here’s How.
Could A Stock Market Downturn Tank Trump’s Approval Rating?
Can The NBA All-Star Game Be Fixed?
How Much Did Russian Interference Affect The 2016 Election?
2018 March Madness Predictions [project]
How Our March Madness Predictions Work
How Our March Madness Predictions Work [methodology]
The ‘Enthusiasm Gap’ Could Turn A Democratic Wave Into A Tsunami
Another Special Election, Another Really Bad Sign For The GOP
President Trump’s Approval Rating Has Been Steady. Richard Nixon’s Once Was Too.
The Polls Are All Right
Which Pollsters To Trust In 2018
Sometimes The Parties Do Decide, After All
The Most Promising Players In The NBA Draft According To My Computer
CARMELO NBA Player Projections [project]
Our NBA Player Projections Are Ready For 2018-19
Will Kennedy’s Retirement Help Republicans At The Midterms?
CARMELO NBA Player Projections [project]
Politics Podcast: Should The Press Respond To Trump’s Attacks?
How Competitive Would New York 27 Be With Chris Collins On The Ballot?
How FiveThirtyEight’s House Model Works
Model Talk: Let’s Talk About The 2018 House Forecast
The 5 Big Takeaways From Our House Forecast
Politics Podcast: The Democrats And The Trump Impeachment Question
Model Talk: Features And Bugs
Election Update: Democrats Are In Their Best Position Yet To Retake The House
How Our NFL Predictions Work
How Our NFL Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our NFL Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our NFL Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our NFL Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our NFL Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our NFL Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our NFL Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our NFL Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our NFL Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our NFL Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our NFL Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our NFL Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our NFL Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our NFL Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our NFL Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our NFL Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our NFL Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our NFL Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our NFL Predictions Work [methodology]
Here’s A New, Less Volatile Version Of Our Generic Ballot Tracker
Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts
Politics Podcast: Inside The Trump Administration
2018 Senate Forecast [project]
How FiveThirtyEight’s House, Senate And Governor Models Work [methodology]
How FiveThirtyEight’s House, Senate And Governor Models Work [methodology]
How FiveThirtyEight’s House, Senate And Governor Models Work [methodology]
How FiveThirtyEight’s House, Senate And Governor Models Work [methodology]
How FiveThirtyEight’s House, Senate And Governor Models Work [methodology]
How FiveThirtyEight’s House, Senate And Governor Models Work [methodology]
How FiveThirtyEight’s House, Senate And Governor Models Work [methodology]
How FiveThirtyEight’s House, Senate And Governor Models Work [methodology]
How FiveThirtyEight’s House, Senate And Governor Models Work [methodology]
How FiveThirtyEight’s House, Senate And Governor Models Work [methodology]
How FiveThirtyEight’s House, Senate And Governor Models Work [methodology]
How FiveThirtyEight’s House, Senate And Governor Models Work [methodology]
How FiveThirtyEight’s House, Senate And Governor Models Work [methodology]
Republicans Are Favorites In The Senate, But Democrats Have Two Paths To An Upset
Politics Podcast: The Battle For The Senate Is Full Of Interesting Races
Will Democratic Senators Lose Despite The ‘Blue Wave’?
Can A Democrat Really Win A Senate Race In Tennessee? Or Mississippi?!?!
The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon
Election Update: Why Our Model Thinks Beto O’Rourke Really Has A Chance In Texas
Election Update: Here’s How We Decide Who’s Involved In A Scandal
Is Kavanaugh Helping Republicans’ Midterm Chances?
2018 College Football Predictions [project]
How Our College Football Playoff Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our College Football Playoff Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our College Football Playoff Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our College Football Playoff Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our College Football Playoff Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our College Football Playoff Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our College Football Playoff Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our College Football Playoff Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our College Football Playoff Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our College Football Playoff Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our College Football Playoff Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our College Football Playoff Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our College Football Playoff Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our College Football Playoff Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our College Football Playoff Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our College Football Playoff Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our College Football Playoff Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our College Football Playoff Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our College Football Playoff Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our College Football Playoff Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our College Football Playoff Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our College Football Playoff Predictions Work [methodology]
What’s Behind Democrats’ Shrinking Senate Odds?
Politics Podcast: Two Forecasts Diverged In A Wood
Why The House And Senate Are Moving In Opposite Directions
2018-19 NBA Predictions [project]
An Upset That Nobody Sees Coming Could Determine Control Of The House
Odds Are, Your Next Governor Will Be A Democrat
Election Update: Democrats’ Unprecedented Fundraising Edge Is Scary For Republicans … And Our Model
Trump’s Approval Rating Is Up. Republican House Chances Are Down. Does That Make Any Sense?
Election Update: Romney-Clinton Districts Are Overrated. Obama-Trump Districts Are Underrated.
Democrats Have A Whac-A-Mole Problem In The Senate
Politics Podcast: No, The Model Doesn’t Care About The Early Vote
The Battleground In The House Is Really Big — And That Makes Life Hard For Republicans
Election Update: Democrats Need A Systematic Polling Error To Win The Senate
Politics Podcast: How To Judge Our Forecasts
Republicans Need A Systematic Polling Error To Win The House
Final Election Update: Democrats Aren’t Certain To Take The House, But They’re Pretty Clear Favorites
The 2018 Map Looked A Lot Like 2012 … And That Got Me Thinking About 2020
Politics Podcast: What The Midterms Taught Us About America
Politics Podcast: A Post-Midterms 2020 Draft … Live!
Politics Podcast: How Our Forecasts Did In 2018
Trump’s Base Isn’t Enough
How FiveThirtyEight’s 2018 Midterm Forecasts Did
The 5 Corners Of The 2020 Democratic Primary
Why Harris And O’Rourke May Have More Upside Than Sanders And Biden
How 17 Long-Shot Presidential Contenders Could Build A Winning Coalition
Will The Shutdown Hurt Trump’s Re-election Chances?
How President Trump Is Like A Terrible Poker Player
Politics Podcast: Lessons From The Government Shutdown (And More 2020 Announcements)
Politics Podcast: Do Americans Want A Candidate Like Howard Schultz?
Socially Liberal, Fiscally Conservative Voters Preferred Trump In 2016
Why I’m More Interested Than Usual In Tonight’s State Of The Union
How Amy Klobuchar Could Win The 2020 Democratic Nomination
Everyone’s Running — And That Could Be Dangerous For The Democrats
Politics Podcast: Trump Plans To Declare A National Emergency
Trump Keeps Doubling Down On The Same Failed Strategy
Could Congress Block Trump’s Emergency Declaration?
How Bernie’s 2020 Map Might Change Without The #NeverHillary Vote
Relievers Have Broken Baseball. We Have A Plan To Fix It.
We’re Tracking 2020 Presidential Endorsements. Here’s Why They Probably Still Matter.
How Our Presidential Endorsement Tracker Works [methodology]
How Our 2020 Presidential Endorsement Tracker Worked [methodology]
How Our 2020 Presidential Endorsement Tracker Worked [methodology]
How Our 2020 Presidential Endorsement Tracker Worked [methodology]
How Our 2020 Presidential Endorsement Tracker Worked [methodology]
How Our 2020 Presidential Endorsement Tracker Worked [methodology]
How Our 2020 Presidential Endorsement Tracker Worked [methodology]
How Our 2020 Presidential Endorsement Tracker Worked [methodology]
How Our 2020 Presidential Endorsement Tracker Worked [methodology]
How Our 2020 Presidential Endorsement Tracker Worked [methodology]
How Our 2020 Presidential Endorsement Tracker Worked [methodology]
How Our 2020 Presidential Endorsement Tracker Worked [methodology]
How Our 2020 Presidential Endorsement Tracker Worked [methodology]
How Our 2020 Presidential Endorsement Tracker Worked [methodology]
How Our 2020 Presidential Endorsement Tracker Worked [methodology]
Is Beto O’Rourke Overrated Or Underrated?
Joe Biden’s And Bernie Sanders’s Support Isn’t Just About Name Recognition
2019 March Madness Predictions [project]
How Our March Madness Predictions Work
How Our March Madness Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our March Madness Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our March Madness Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our March Madness Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our March Madness Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our March Madness Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our March Madness Predictions Work [methodology]
How Our March Madness Predictions Work [methodology]
Is Beto O’Rourke Learning How To Troll The Media?
First Thoughts On The Political Fallout Of The Mueller Report
Here’s How We’re Defining A ‘Major’ Presidential Candidate
Why Trump Hasn’t Seen A Post-Mueller Boost In The Polls
When We Say 70 Percent, It Really Means 70 Percent
Politics Podcast: We Evaluated All Of Our Forecast Models. They’re Reliable.
Silver Bulletpoints: We’ve Got Your Backlash To The Buttigieg Backlash
Bernie Sanders Can Win, But He Isn’t Polling Like A Favorite
How Joe Biden Could Win The 2020 Democratic Primary
Silver Bulletpoints: I’m Revising My 2020 Tiers To Better Match The Polling
Does Biden’s Polling Bounce Mean Anything?
Politics Podcast: Mueller’s Letter Puts Barr In The Hot Seat
Silver Bulletpoints: The Union Vote Could Swing The Election
Silver Bulletpoints: The 4 Meta-Messages Of The 2020 Campaign
Politics Podcast: Should Democrats Worry About The Downsides Of Impeaching Trump?
Silver Bulletpoints: Why Did All The White Guys Stampede Into The Race So Late?
Silver Bulletpoints: Are More Moderate Democrats More Electable?
Are The Raptors Really Favorites Against The Warriors?
Silver Bulletpoints: Who’s In Danger Of Missing The Third Debate?
Politics Podcast: How Candidates Are Handling The ‘Electability’ Question
Bernie Sanders Has The Highest Floor — And It’s Pretty Damn Low
Politics Podcast: Is Elizabeth Warren Surging?
Silver Bulletpoints: Iowans Seem To Like Warren And Buttigieg
Politics Podcast: Who Are The Swing Voters In 2020?
Bulletpoint: Only Two Meaningful Shifts Have Happened In The Democratic Primary So Far
Bulletpoint: How To Tell When Biden Has Committed A Real Gaffe
Bulletpoint: Is Electability A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?
Do You Buy That … Warren Is A 2020 Favorite?
Do You Buy That … Warren Is A 2020 Favorite? [video]
Politics Podcast: Are Lanes Emerging In The Democratic Primary?
Politics Podcast: What Happened On Night One Of The First Democratic Debates
Politics Podcast: Kamala Harris Won The Debate Narrative. What Comes Next?
Do You Buy That … Going Too Far Left On Health Care Could Hurt Democrats In 2020?
Do You Buy That … Going Too Far Left On Health Care Could Hurt Democrats In 2020? [video]
Do You Buy That … Texas Could Be A Swing State In 2020?
Do You Buy That … Texas Could Be A Swing State In 2020? [video]
A Better Way To Evaluate NBA Defense
A Midsummer Overview Of The Democratic Field
Do You Buy That … Tom Steyer Can Break Through?
Do You Buy That … Tom Steyer Can Break Through? [video]
Politics Podcast: Trump’s Racist Tweets
2019-20 NBA Predictions [project]
Bulletpoint: Does Kamala Harris Need A Win Before California?
Bulletpoint: Bernie Sanders Is Running Ahead Of The Pack On Health Care
Bulletpoint: Beto O’Rourke Doesn’t Have A Base
Do You Buy That … Fundraising Matters More Than Polling In The 2020 Race?
Do You Buy That … Fundraising Matters More Than Polling In The 2020 Race? [video]
Politics Podcast: Racial Resentment As A Political Strategy
Kamala Harris’s Debate Bounce Is Fading
Medicare For All Isn’t That Popular — Even Among Democrats
Do You Buy That … The Democratic Primary Debates Determine The Nominee?
Do You Buy That … The Democratic Primary Debates Determine The Nominee? [video]
15 Percent Is Not A Magic Number For Primary Delegates
Politics Podcast: Are Democrats Moving Too Far Left?
Live From Detroit: The Post-Debate State Of The Primary
Is The Field Too Big For Kamala Harris?
Politics Podcast: Can Trump’s Words Incite Violence?
Polls Since The Second Debate Show Kamala Harris Slipping
Forget ‘Lanes.’ The Democratic Primary Is A Whole Freaking Transit System.
Do You Buy That … A Tipping Point Has Been Reached On Support For Gun Control?
Do You Buy That … A Tipping Point Has Been Reached On Support For Gun Control? [video]
Politics Podcast: How Much Does Iowa Matter?
Voters Care About Biden’s Age — Not About His Gaffes
Do You Buy That … Iowa Is A Make-Or-Break State For Democrats?
Do You Buy That … Iowa Is A Make-Or-Break State For Democrats? [video]
Do You Buy That … Trump’s China Tariffs Are A Threat To His Re-Election?
Do You Buy That … Trump’s China Tariffs Are A Threat To His Re-Election? [video]
Joe Biden Has An Iowa Problem, Not An Enthusiasm Problem
Politics Podcast: The Winnowing Begins
Do You Buy That … Crowd Size Really Matters?
Do You Buy That … Crowd Size Really Matters? [video]
How To Handle An Outlier Poll
Politics Podcast: What A 10-Person Democratic Debate Means
2019 NFL Predictions [project]
Do You Buy That … The Democratic Field Is Down To A Big Three?
Do You Buy That … The Democratic Field Is Down To A Big Three? [video]
Is It Really A Three-Candidate Race?
Politics Podcast: How To Win This Week’s Debate
If You’re Polling In The Low Single Digits, You’re Probably Toast
Politics Podcast: What Happened When The Front-Runners Were All On Stage
Do You Buy That … There Was No Clear Winner From The Third Democratic Debate?
Do You Buy That … There Was No Clear Winner From The Third Democratic Debate? [video]
Politics Podcast: How Both Parties’ 2020 Primaries Are Going
Politics Podcast: We Ran Into Andrew Yang At The Airport
2019 College Football Predictions [project]
There’s A Better Case For A Top 2 Than A Top 3
Politics Podcast: Are Democrats Ready To Impeach Trump?
Impeaching Trump On Russia Was Unpopular. Will Ukraine Be Different?
Politics Podcast: Why Pelosi Announced An Impeachment Inquiry
If This Is Trump’s Best Case, The Ukraine Scandal Is Looking Really Bad For Him
Do You Buy That … Public Opinion On Impeachment Is Shifting?
Do You Buy That … Public Opinion On Impeachment Is Shifting? [video]
Politics Podcast: Impeachment Is Becoming More Popular
Do You Buy That … Impeachment Will Energize Trump’s Base And Boost Him In 2020?
Do You Buy That … Impeachment Will Energize Trump’s Base And Boost Him In 2020? [video]
Politics Podcast: Is Ukraine Getting Worse For Trump?
NBA Player Projections [project]
How Our RAPTOR Metric Works
Introducing RAPTOR, Our New Metric For The Modern NBA
Warren’s Rise Hasn’t Come At Biden’s Expense
Do You Buy That … Age Will Be A Factor In Determining The Democratic Nominee?
Do You Buy That … Age Will Be A Factor In Determining The Democratic Nominee? [video]
Politics Podcast: What To Look For In The Fourth Democratic Debate
Politics Podcast: Elizabeth Warren Gets A Turn In The Hot Seat
How The AOC And Omar Endorsements Could Matter
Do You Buy That … 2020 Endorsements Matter?
Do You Buy That … 2020 Endorsements Matter? [video]
Politics Podcast: Why Medicare For All Has Become A Lightning Rod
Politics Podcast: What The Latest Impeachment Testimony Means For The White House
Do You Buy That … Democratic Voters Want A New 2020 Candidate?
Do You Buy That … Democratic Voters Want A New 2020 Candidate? [video]
Do You Buy That … Today’s Polls Show Who Will Win The Democratic Nomination?
Do You Buy That … Today’s Polls Show Who Will Win The Democratic Nomination? [video]
The State Of The Polls, 2019
National Polls And State Polls Show Pretty Much The Same Thing
The Best NBA Players This Season, According To RAPTOR [project]
Do You Buy That … Last Week’s Governors Races Are Reason For Trump To Panic?
Do You Buy That … Last Week’s Governors Races Are Reason For Trump To Panic? [video]
Politics Podcast: Could Trump Lose The Popular Vote And Win, Again?
Do You Buy That … It’s Too Late For Deval Patrick To Really Have A Chance?
Do You Buy That … It’s Too Late For Deval Patrick To Really Have A Chance? [video]
Politics Podcast: About Buttigieg … And That Iowa Poll
Politics Podcast: How The Fifth Democratic Debate Could Affect The Race
Do You Buy That … Buttigieg And Klobuchar Can Win As Moderates?
Do You Buy That … Buttigieg And Klobuchar Can Win As Moderates? [video]
Politics Podcast: A Very FiveThirtyEight Thanksgiving
Do You Buy That … A Strong Economy Boosts Trump’s Reelection Chances?
Do You Buy That … A Strong Economy Boosts Trump’s Reelection Chances? [video]
Politics Podcast: Is The Party Deciding?
Politics Podcast: Why Harris Dropped Out
Do You Buy That … Kamala Harris’s 2020 Exit Helps Biden?
Do You Buy That … Kamala Harris’s 2020 Exit Helps Biden? [video]
Politics Podcast: The Democratic Primary, According To The Early States
What Makes Our New 2020 Democratic Primary Polling Averages Different
Do You Buy That … Bernie Sanders Still Has A Shot At The Democratic Nomination? [video]
Politics Podcast: Do Voters’ Second Choices Matter In The Democratic Primary?
Do You Buy That … Spending A Lot Of Money On Ads Can Help Win the Democratic Nomination? [video]
Do You Buy That… Spending A Lot Of Money On Ads Can Help Win the Democratic Nomination?
Politics Podcast: Biggest Political Moments Of 2019. Key Questions For 2020.
Politics Podcast: How The Iran Conflict Could Affect The 2020 Election
Who Will Win The 2020 Democratic Primary? [project]
How Our Primary Model Works
Biden Is The Front-Runner, But There’s No Clear Favorite
Politics Podcast: The Primary Forecast Is Live, And ‘Model Talk’ Returns
Election Update: Sanders Now Leads A Wide-Open Iowa Race
Politics Podcast: A Four-Way Pileup In Iowa
Election Update: Two New Polls Show Biden’s Upside Scenario
Politics Podcast: The Candidates Took On Electability In Their Final Pre-Iowa Debate
Election Update: Why Warren Needs To Play To Win — And That Includes Beating Sanders
Election Update: The First Post-Debate Polls Are In! And They’re … Pretty Weird.
Politics Podcast: The Electoral Cases For — And Against — The Four Leading Democrats
Election Update: It’s Cherry-Picking Season
Election Update: What Are The Chances Of A Brokered Convention?
Do You Buy That … The Campaigns Are Making A Mistake By Going Negative?
Do You Buy That … The Campaigns Are Making A Mistake By Going Negative? [video]
Politics Podcast: Bernie Sanders Is Gaining Ground One Week Before Iowa
The Iowa Caucuses Are In 4 Days. Almost Anything Could Still Happen.
How Iowa’s Three Different Votes Could Affect Who ‘Wins’
Are The Iowa Caucuses A Two-Way Race?
Are The Iowa Caucuses A Two-Way Race? [video]
Politics Podcast: What To Expect From The Iowa Caucuses
89 Different Scenarios For What Things Could Look Like After Iowa
Iowa Might Have Screwed Up The Whole Nomination Process
Politics Podcast: Chaos In Iowa
Buttigieg And/Or Sanders Are Going To Win Iowa. What Happens Next?
Our Post-Iowa Primary Forecast Is Up, And Biden’s Chances Are Down
Politics Podcast: What We Know About The Democratic Primary After Iowa
The Calendar Isn’t Helping Biden, But His Iowa Performance Points To Bigger Problems
Election Update: There’s A New Face In Our Forecast. (It’s Bloomberg.)
Live From Manchester: The Politics Podcast Previews The New Hampshire Primary
28 Scenarios For What Things Could Look Like After New Hampshire
Sanders Is The Front-Runner After New Hampshire, And A Contested Convention Has Become More Likely
Politics Podcast: Sanders Won The New Hampshire Vote. So How Did ‘Klobucharge’ Win The Narrative?
Politics Podcast: Post-New Hampshire, ‘No One’ Is On The Rise
Does Sanders Have A Ceiling? Maybe. Can He Win Anyway? Yes.
Do You Buy That … A Contested Convention Is A Real Possibility?
Do You Buy That … A Contested Convention Is A Real Possibility? [video]
Politics Podcast: Can Michael Bloomberg Win?!
We Fixed An Issue With How Our Primary Forecast Was Calculating Candidates’ Demographic Strengths
Politics Podcast: Just How Bad Was That Debate For Bloomberg?
The Debate Exposed Bloomberg’s Downside — But It Was There All Along
Bernie Sanders Wins Nevada — Putting Him In The Driver’s Seat To Win The Nomination
Politics Podcast: What Sanders’s Big Nevada Win Means For The Rest Of The Race
Politics Podcast: Biden Fights For A Win In The South Carolina Debate
What The Race Looks Like If Biden Wins — Or Wins Big, Or Loses — In South Carolina
What Biden’s Big South Carolina Win Might Mean For Sanders
Politics Podcast: How Biden Made A Comeback In South Carolina
Election Update: Buttigieg Dropping Out Isn’t Good For Sanders
Politics Podcast: What’s At Stake On Super Tuesday
Our Final Forecast For Super Tuesday Shows Biden’s Surge — And Lots Of Uncertainty
Five Scenarios For How Super Tuesday Could Go
Emergency Politics Podcast: Warren Drops Out Of The Democratic Primary
After Super Tuesday, Joe Biden Is A Clear Favorite To Win The Nomination
Politics Podcast: Why Biden Is Now A Big Favorite
Do You Buy That … Michigan Is Make-Or-Break For Bernie Sanders?
Do You Buy That … Michigan Is Make-Or-Break For Bernie Sanders? [video]
Politics Podcast: What Are The Political Repercussions Of The Coronavirus?
Michigan Might Not Be As Sanders-Friendly This Time
3 Ways The Next 2 Weeks Could Go: Even The Best Case Scenario For Sanders Doesn’t Look So Great
Politics Podcast: Is The Democratic Primary Over?
Election Update: Sanders Needs Something Extraordinary To Happen
Politics Podcast: Biden And Sanders Face Off Amid Coronavirus Crisis
Politics Podcast: How Uncertainty Around The Coronavirus Affects Our Life And Politics
Politics Podcast: How COVID-19 Is — And Isn’t — Changing Politics
Trump’s Reelection May Hinge On The Economy — And Coronavirus
The Coronavirus Isn’t Just A Blue State Problem
Politics Podcast: Why Trump’s Approval Rating Has Increased
Coronavirus Case Counts Are Meaningless*
Politics Podcast: Wisconsin’s Election Is A Mess
Politics Podcast: Bernie Sanders Suspends His Campaign For President
Sanders — And The Media — Learned The Wrong Lessons From Trump In 2016
Do You Buy That … Social Distancing Is Working To Help Flatten The Curve? [video]
Politics Podcast: These Are Our Priors For The General Election
Has New York Bent The Curve?
Do You Buy That … Early COVID-19 Models Are Too Pessimistic? [video]
Politics Podcast: What Is Motivating The COVID-19 Protests?
Politics Podcast: How One Modeler Is Trying To Forecast The Toll Of COVID-19
How One Modeler Is Trying To Forecast The Toll Of COVID-19 [video]
Coronavirus Cases Are Still Growing In Many U.S. States
Do You Buy That … The United States Has Gotten Over The Coronavirus Hump? [video]
Politics Podcast: Is Trump Slipping In The Polls Because Of COVID-19?
Is Trump Slipping In The Polls Because Of COVID-19? [video]
Do You Buy That … Democrats Could Win The Senate In 2020? [video]
Politics Podcast: Biden Responds To Sexual Assault Allegation
How Democrats Are Responding To The Sexual Assault Allegation Against Biden [video]
Do You Buy That … Voters Will Blame Trump For The Bad Economy? [video]
Politics Podcast: Americans, Not Politicians, Will Decide When We Reopen
Does The U.S. Have A Coronavirus Recovery Plan? [video]
Do You Buy That … COVID-19 Deaths Are Overestimated? [video]
Politics Podcast: Coronavirus Is Becoming Even More Partisan
Does Trump Really Want A Fight With Obama? [video]
Do You Buy That … Biden Should Pick A Running Mate From A Swing State? [video]
Politics Podcast: Questions About The Parties’ Bases
Does Trump Really Have Unique Appeal Among Working-Class Whites? [video]
Politics Podcast: The Data Behind Police Violence
How The Protests Against Police Brutality Could Shape Electoral Politics [video]
Do You Buy That … The Location Of A Presidential Nominating Convention Matters? [video]
Politics Podcast: Americans Disapprove Of How Trump Is Handling The Pandemic And The Protests
Trump’s Standing In The Polls Has Worsened [video]
Politics Podcast: Public Opinion Of The Black Lives Matter Movement Has Shifted. What Happens Next?
Will The Shifting Views On Police And Racism Last? [video]
Our New Polling Averages Show Biden Leads Trump By 9 Points Nationally
Do You Buy That … Trump Can Win In 2020 By Relying On The Midwest? [video]
Politics Podcast: Progressives Challenge The Democratic Establishment In New York And Kentucky
Progressives Could Finally Win Something In New York And Kentucky [video]
Do You Buy That … Trump Should Be Worried About The Recent Polls? [video]
Politics Podcast: Biden Is Currently Competitive In Georgia And Texas
If Texas Is Competitive, Trump Has Problems [video]
Do You Buy That … Masks Could Help Trump Politically? [video]
Politics Podcast: How Republicans Could Boost Their Chances In November
How Trump Could Improve His Electoral Odds [video]
Do You Buy That … Voter Enthusiasm Will Help Trump In 2020? [video]
Politics Podcast: COVID-19 Deaths Are Rising. What Will The U.S. Do?
COVID-19 Deaths Are Increasing. Americans Disagree With Trump On What To Do About It. [video]
Do You Buy That … Mail-In Voting Will Hurt Republicans? [video]
Do You Buy That … Coronavirus Will Be What Makes Or Breaks Trump’s Re-election Prospects? [video]
Politics Podcast: Biden’s VP Announcement Could Come Any Day Now
How Biden’s VP Pick Could Shape Perceptions Of The Ticket Overall [video]
Do You Buy That … We Could See A Delay In Election Results? [video]
Politics Podcast: Can Economic Data Predict Elections?
The GDP Data Is Terrible. That Doesn’t Mean Trump Is Bound To Lose. [video]
Do You Buy That … Kamala Harris Is Most Likely To Become Biden’s Running Mate? [video]
Politics Podcast: The Veepstakes Are Almost Over
How Biden’s Standing In The Polls Compares To Clinton’s At This Point In 2016 [video]
2020 Election Forecast [project]
It’s Way Too Soon To Count Trump Out
How FiveThirtyEight’s 2020 Presidential Forecast Works — And What’s Different Because Of COVID-19
Politics Podcast: The 2020 Presidential Forecast Is Live!
Model Talk: How The 2020 Presidential Forecast Works [video]
Nate Silver Introduces The 2020 Election Forecast [video]
Our Election Forecast Didn’t Say What I Thought It Would
Do You Buy That … Trump Still Has A Clear Path To Re-election? [video]
Politics Podcast: Michelle Obama Ripped President Trump On Night One Of The Convention
Sanders And Kasich’s DNC Speeches Show Democrats Are Going After All Kinds Of Voters [video]
Politics Podcast: Biden Pitches Himself As The Good Guy
Does Biden Have The Broad Appeal He Thinks He Does? [video]
Do You Buy That … Trump’s Reelection Chances Are Improving? [video]
Politics Podcast: It Was Trumpism vs. Traditionalism At Night 1 Of The RNC
Who Were Republicans Trying To Reach On Night 1 Of The RNC? [video]
Politics Podcast: What Trump’s RNC Speech Means For The Next Two Months
What Trump Didn’t Say In His RNC Speech Is As Important As What He Did Say [video]
Do You Buy That … Backlash Against The Protests Helps Trump? [video]
Politics Podcast: We Don’t Know Yet Whether Unrest In Kenosha And Portland Will Help Trump
There’s Not Enough Evidence Yet To Know Whether Unrest In Kenosha And Portland Will Affect The Election [video]
Politics Podcast: If Biden Wins The Popular Vote By 2-3 Points, He Isn’t Favored To Win The Electoral College
Trump Has An Electoral College Advantage Again This Cycle [video]
Politics Podcast: The 2020 Electoral Map Could Get Weird
States That Are Not Normally Competitive Are Competitive In 2020 [video]
Do You Buy That … Donald Trump Is Performing Well With Hispanic Voters? [video]
Politics Podcast: Trump Is Narrowing The Gap With Latino Voters
Why Some Latino Voters Are Backing Trump [video]
Democrats Are Slight Favorites To Take Back The Senate
Why Our Forecast Says Democrats Are Slightly Favored To Win The Senate [video]
Politics Podcast: Our 2020 Senate Forecast Is Live!
Politics Podcast: How A Supreme Court Vacancy Will Shape The Election
Will The Supreme Court Be The Most Important Issue For Voters In 2020? [video]
The Senate’s Rural Skew Makes It Very Hard For Democrats To Win The Supreme Court
Politics Podcast: What Comes Next In The Fight To Fill Ginsburg’s Seat
The Potential Pitfalls In Rushing To Confirm A New Supreme Court Justice [video]
Think The Electoral College Is Unfair To Democrats? Try The Senate. [video]
What State Polls Can Tell Us About The National Race
Politics Podcast: Trump Refuses To Commit To A Peaceful Transfer Of Power
How Far Could Trump Go To Undermine The Election Results? [video]
Do You Buy That … Democrats Have An Edge With Five Weeks To Go Until The Elections? [video]
Politics Podcast: Trump’s Tax Returns Challenge His Successful Businessman Image
A Majority Of Americans Say They Want To Know What Is In Trump’s Tax Returns. Now They Do. [video]
Politics Podcast: Trump Interrupts To Point Of Chaos In First Debate
The Debate Was One Of The Few Opportunities For Trump To Shake Up The Race. He Probably Didn’t. [video]
Trump’s Chances Are Dwindling. That Could Make Him Dangerous.
Emergency Politics Podcast: Trump Tests Positive For COVID-19
Trump Tested Positive For COVID-19. Now What? [video]
Biden Has Made Some Modest Gains After The Debate
The Economy Was Trump’s One Remaining Advantage. Now He Might Have Blown It.
Trump Has Three Big Problems Heading Toward Election Day [video]
The Vice Presidential Debate Was Civil. But Did It Shake Up The Race? [video]
Politics Podcast: How The Model Is Responding To Biden’s Double-Digit Lead In The Polls
The Politics Podcast Answers Your Questions About The Forecast [video]
Do You Buy That … Biden Is Gaining With Older Voters? [video]
Politics Podcast: The Road To A Senate Majority Runs Through The Sun Belt
How President Trump Could Still Win Reelection [video]
Will Georgia Turn Blue?
Politics Podcast: Why Democrats’ Chances Of Winning The Senate Have Increased
How Does Early Voting Affect The Forecast? And Other Listener Questions. [video]
8 Tips To Stay Sane In The Final 15 Days Of The Campaign
Do You Buy That … Republicans Should Be Worried About The Early Voting Turnout So Far? [video]
Politics Podcast: Why Biden’s Lead Is Different
What Full Democratic Control Of The White House And Congress Would Look Like [video]
We’re Letting You Mess With Our Presidential Forecast, But Try Not To Make The Map Too Weird
Politics Podcast: The Last Debate Is Over And The Final Stage Of The Campaign Has Begun
Will The Race Tighten After The Final Debate? [video]
Politics Podcast: National And District-Level Polls Disagree About How Close The 2020 Election Is
Will A Runoff In Georgia Decide Control Of The Senate? And Other Listener Questions. [video]
Do You Buy That … We Will Know Who Won On Election Night? [video]
Politics Podcast: Could Any Surprises Still Affect The Race For President?
Surprise! October Surprises Don’t Usually Decide Elections [video]
Is Joe Biden Toast If He Loses Pennsylvania?
We Have A Lot Of New Polls, But There’s Little Sign Of The Presidential Race Tightening
Politics Podcast: There Just Isn’t Good Evidence That ‘Shy’ Trump Voters Exist
Why Trump Has A Better Chance Of Winning Pennsylvania Than Wisconsin Or Michigan [video]
What Are The Chances We’ll Know The Next President On Election Night? [video]
Trump Can Still Win, But The Polls Would Have To Be Off By Way More Than In 2016
Politics Podcast: What The Deluge Of Final Polls Can Tell Us
We Can’t Believe We Have To Say This, But You Win An Election By Being Ahead When All The Votes Are Counted [video]
I’m Here To Remind You That Trump Can Still Win
Politics Podcast: Final Reflections On The 2020 Campaign Before Election Day
Even In The Middle Of A Pandemic, The 2020 Election Has Always Been About Trump [video]
Biden’s Favored In Our Final Presidential Forecast, But It’s A Fine Line Between A Landslide And A Nail-Biter
Politics Podcast: Biden’s Path To Victory Is Looking Clearer
When Will We Finally Get Results In Unprojected States? [video]
Politics Podcast: Biden Could Soon Win Pennsylvania … And The Presidency
Biden Appears On The Verge Of Overtaking Trump In Pennsylvania [video]
Biden Won — Pretty Convincingly In The End
Politics Podcast: Biden Is Set To Be President. What Comes Next?
This Was A Pretty Good Map For Biden [video]
Politics Podcast: Where The Rest Of The 2020 Races Stand
Democrats Aren’t Sure Why They Didn’t Do Better In The House And Senate. It Might Not Be Clear For Weeks. [video]
The Polls Weren’t Great. But That’s Pretty Normal.
Politics Podcast: Why Polls Were Off In 2020, And Why They Weren’t That Bad
How The Pandemic Might Have Affected The Polls In 2020 [video]
Politics Podcast: What Divided The Electorate In 2020
Americans Became More Divided By Class In 2020 [video]
Do You Buy That … COVID-19 Was A Factor In Polls Underestimating Republican Turnout? [video]
Politics Podcast: Trump Is Setting A Dangerous Precedent For American Democracy
Trump Probably Won’t Be The Last Politician To Reject An Election Outcome Without Evidence [video]
Do You Buy That … Suburban Voters Helped Biden? [video]
Politics Podcast: Why Did Down-Ballot Democrats Have Such A Mediocre Showing?
Democrats’ 2020 House And Senate Map Could Spell Trouble In Future Elections [video]
Latest Polls Of The Georgia Senate Runoff Elections [project]
Politics Podcast: The Electoral Challenges Facing The Republican Party
Why The GOP Isn’t Able To Win The Popular Vote [video]
Politics Podcast: Why Republicans Still Doubt The Election Results
What The Pandemic Revealed About American Politics [video]
Do You Buy That … Trump’s Rhetoric Is Hurting GOP Senate Candidates In Georgia? [video]
Politics Podcast: Goodbye To 2020
Why Many Pollsters Are Sitting Out The Georgia Runoffs [video]
Why A Split Verdict In Georgia Isn’t That Crazy
Politics Podcast: Trump Has Made The Senate Races In Georgia Harder For Republicans
Why Many Republicans Are Still Attempting To Overturn The Election [video]
Politics Podcast: What Will The Republican Party Do Now?
What Trumpism Has Cost The GOP And The Nation [video]
Georgia Was A Disaster For Republicans. It’s Not Clear Where They Can Go Next.
Politics Podcast: Did Trump Change The Rules Of Politics?
The Pandemic And The Attack On The Capitol Will Likely Define Trump’s Presidency [video]
Politics Podcast: The Biden Presidency Begins
Is Biden’s Vision Of Unity Possible? [video]
Do You Buy That … President Joe Biden Can Unite The Country? [video]
Politics Podcast: The Lawmakers Who Will Determine What Gets Through Congress
Partisans Don’t Just Disagree, They Hate One Another [video]
How Popular Is Joe Biden? [project]
Politics Podcast: The Final Model Talk Of 2020
How The Georgia Runoffs Changed The ‘Polling Is Broken’ Narrative [video]
Do You Buy That … Democrats Have A Chance To Win The Ohio Senate Seat In 2022? [video]
Politics Podcast: Would Voters Abandon The GOP For A ‘Patriot Party’?
How Biden’s Response To The Pandemic Is Different From Trump’s [video]
Politics Podcast: What Georgia Republicans’ Proposed Voting Restrictions Would Do
What To Expect From The Senate Impeachment Trial [video]
Politics Podcast: Why Democrats Are Done With Iowa And New Hampshire
Why Some Republicans Voted To Convict Trump And Others Didn’t [video]
Do You Buy That … Republican Senators Who Voted To Convict Trump Will Lose Their Next Election? [video]
Politics Podcast: Democrats Are More United Today Than The Last Time They Passed Major Legislation
The Democrats’ COVID Relief Bill Is Popular. That Doesn’t Mean Republicans Will Vote For It. [video]
New Yorkers Don’t Want Cuomo To Resign Or Run For Reelection
Why Some Senate Democrats Voted Against Raising The Minimum Wage [video]
Politics Podcast: The Attacks In Atlanta May Activate Asian Americans Politically
The Atlanta Attacks Came After A Year Of Data Showed Anti-Asian Incidents On The Rise [video]
The Death Of Polling Is Greatly Exaggerated
Politics Podcast: The Gold Standard For Polling Has Changed
Do You Buy That … Stricter Voting Laws Will Benefit Republicans? [video]
Politics Podcast: Democrats Are Struggling On Immigration Policy
What We Know About The New Voting Restrictions Many States Are Considering [video]
Politics Podcast: Americans Are More Independent But Just As Partisan
Why Support For Gun Control Hasn’t Led To New Legislation [video]
Politics Podcast: How Americans Feel About Vaccination After The Johnson & Johnson Pause
A Majority Of Americans Think Climate Change Should Be A Political Priority [video]
Politics Podcast: How Partisanship Explains Our Pandemic Behavior
How Partisanship Has Made Some Liberals More Cautious About COVID-19 [video]
Do You Buy That … A Social Media Ban Hurts Trump’s 2024 Aspirations? [video]
What Florida’s New Voting Law Signifies About The GOP’s Larger Motivations
If Liz Cheney Doesn’t Have A Home In The GOP, Who Does? [video]
How Our WNBA Predictions Work [methodology]
How Do You Poll A ‘Ranked Choice Voting’ Election? [video]
Politics Podcast: You Asked If Americans Believe In Aliens. We Answered.
Do You Buy That … Lotteries Encourage People To Get Vaccinated? [video]
Politics Podcast: One Special Election Can’t Forecast The Midterms
How FiveThirtyEight’s 2020 Forecasts Did And What We’ll Be Thinking About For 2022
Why It’s So Hard To Poll People About The Death Penalty [video]
Do You Buy That … Ranked-Choice Voting Could Change The Outcome Of The NYC Mayoral Race? [video]
Will 70 Percent Of Americans Be Vaccinated By July 4? [video]
Politics Podcast Mailbag Edition: What Alaska And Mars Have In Common
Politics Podcast: Summer Mailbag Edition [video]
Politics Podcast: Why Biden Wants A Bipartisan Infrastructure Plan
Why Republicans Are Starting To Make Their Own Climate Agenda [video]
Nate Silver’s Takeaways From NYC’s Ranked-Choice Primary Election [video]
Politics Podcast: A Record Number Of Americans Are ‘Thriving.’ But What Does That Mean?
Can’t Wait For The Midterms? Here’s What To Pay Attention To Until 2022. [video]
Do You Buy That … President Biden’s Current Approval Rating Should Comfort Democrats? [video]
Politics Podcast: Are There Really Five Political Parties In America?
What If America Had A Lot More Political Parties? [video]
Cuomo Is Resigning. Now What? [video]
Why Has Biden’s Approval Rating Fallen? [video]
Do You Buy That … The 2020 Census Contained Good News For Democrats? [video]
2021 NFL Predictions [project]
Why A 9/11-Era Political Consensus Seems Impossible These Days [video]
Do You Buy That … President Biden’s Low Approval Numbers Will Improve? [video]
GOP Critics Of Trump’s ‘Big Lie’ Are Struggling To Win Reelection [video]
Do You Buy That … Democrats Should Worry About The Virginia Governor’s Race? [video]
Do You Buy That … Limiting Abortion Access Will Mobilize Democrats At The Polls? [video]
Do You Buy That … Donald Trump Will Be The Republican Nominee in 2024? [video]
Do You Buy That … Political Forces Are Aligned On Climate Change? [video]
Do You Buy That … This Year’s Election Was Good For Trump’s 2024 Prospects? [video]
Do You Buy That … Stacey Abrams And Beto O’Rourke Will Win Their Governors’ Races? [video]
What Would It Take To ‘Fix’ Polling … And Other Questions From Podcast Listeners [video]
Do You Buy That … Jan. 6 Strengthened Trump’s Hold On The Republican Party? [video]
Do You Buy That … Omicron Dooms Democrats In The Midterms? [video]
Do You Buy That … Democrat Retirements Will Give The GOP A Midterm Advantage? [video]
Do You Buy That … The U.S. Will See An Increase In COVID-19 Cases? [video]
Do You Buy That … Republican Senators’ Sharp Questioning Of Ketanji Brown Jackson Could Backfire? [video]
Do You Buy That … Brian Kemp Is The Favorite In Georgia’s Governors Race? [video]
Do You Buy That … Sarah Palin Can Win Alaska’s House Seat? [video]
Do You Buy That … Emmanuel Macron Is The Favorite To Win The French Presidential Election? [video]
2022 Senate Election Forecast [project]
Why Republicans Are Favored To Win The House, But Not The Senate
What’s Behind FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 Election Forecast (As Told By Nate Silver) [video]
Do You Buy That … The GOP Will Win The Senate In 2022? [video]
Maybe Dobbs Did Change The Race. We’ll Need More Time To Know For Sure.
Do You Buy That … The Fall Of Roe v. Wade Will Help Democrats In The Midterms? [video]
Biden Is Very Unpopular. It May Not Tell Us Much About The Midterms.
New Hampshire Is Tiny And Pretty Weird. That Could Help Maggie Hassan.
What Would Losing Big In The Midterms Mean For Biden? [video]
The Political Environment Might Be Improving For Democrats
It’s Hard To Win A Senate Race When You’ve Never Won An Election Before
Will This Be An Asterisk* Election?
Are Democrats Really Going To Win In Ohio And Wisconsin? [video]
Can Tim Ryan Really Win Ohio’s Senate Race?
Do You Buy That … Democrats Have A Chance Of Winning Senate Races In Ohio And North Carolina? [video]
Where Should The Big Ten Expand Next? We Crunched The Numbers.
Explore The Ways Republicans Or Democrats Could Win The Midterms [project]
Why Trump’s Presence In The Midterms Is Risky For The GOP
Do You Buy That … Dems Are Favored To Win Pennsylvania Senate And Governor’s Races? [video]
Why A State Like Michigan Might Actually Be A Blue State
What’s Behind Democrats’ Improvement In Our Congressional Forecasts? [video]
Will The Polls Overestimate Democrats Again?
The Polls Still Do Not Show A GOP Bounceback
5 Reasons For Democrats To Still Be Concerned About The Midterms
What Is Going On In Alaska? … And More Questions From Listeners [video]
Nevada Could Be Senate Republicans’ Ace In The Hole
Betting Markets Are Treating The Midterm Elections Like It’s A Presidential Election
Nevada Or Georgia … Which Senate Race Is Most Important? [video]
Why I’m Telling My Friends That The Senate Is A Toss-Up
Early Voting Data Is Here. Don’t Put Too Much Stock In It. [video]
Where Our Model Thinks The Polls Might Be Biased
The Case For A Republican Sweep On Election Night
How Do All These Republican Polls Affect The Model? [video]
The Case For A Democratic Surprise On Election Night
The 3 Big Questions I Still Have About Election Day
Republicans Are Favored In Our Final Midterm Forecasts [video]
Final Election Update: The Forecast Is More Or Less Back Where It Started
The Pollsters Seem To Have Had A Good Night [video]
Candidate Quality Mattered
Do You Buy That … Sen. Raphael Warnock Is Favored In Georgia’s Senate Runoff? [video]
Who Will Have The Advantage In The Georgia Runoff? [video]
Why DeSantis Is A Major Threat To Trump’s Reelection
Will Trump Win The Republican Nomination, Much Less The Presidency? [video]
DYBT … Trump Is The Frontrunner For The 2024 GOP Nomination? [video]
Do You Buy That … McCarthy Will Eventually Become Speaker? [video]
Are The Democrats Screwed In The Senate After 2024?
Do You Buy That … Georgia Is A Battleground State? [video]
Is This The Last Time This Decade Democrats Will Control The Senate? [video]
Do You Buy That … Young Voters Handed Democrats Wins In Close Races? [video]
Do You Buy That … GOP Investigations Effectively Hurt Biden’s Chances In 2024? [video]
How Our 2022 Midterm Forecasts Performed
The Model Always Had Its Doubts About The Red Wave [video]
Nikki Haley Has Tough Competition In Trump And DeSantis [video]
Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? [video]
What Would Happen If Trump Was A Third-Party Candidate In 2024? [video]
Do You Buy That … Last Week’s Election In Wisconsin Was The Most Important Election Of 2023? [video]
How Our Presidential Endorsement Tracker Works [methodology]
How Our Presidential Endorsement Tracker Works [methodology]
How Our Presidential Endorsement Tracker Works [methodology]
Live From New York: Will AI Replace This Podcast? [video]