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Frequently Asked Questions, Last Revised 8/7/08
Pollster Ratings v1.0
Summary Results, 3/7/2008
A Reality Check on South Dakota?
Still in Beta Test Mode
Still in Beta Test Mode
Regions
FAQ
538 versus Intrade
Moving beyond the Big Three
Plenty of Democrats in Red States
Some “New” North Carolina polls
The Clinton voters who won’t vote for Obama
Pollster Ratings v2.0
New Pennsylvania, Michigan polls are good news for McCain
Carolinas Down, 48 to Go
Does Obama benefit from an active primary campaign?
Swing State Analysis
New Maps
The Real Comeback Kid: Ralph Nader?
Today’s Polls, 3/15
Beware of (Temporarily) Falling Polls
The Real Comeback Kid: Ralph Nader?
Today’s Polls, 3/16
A Technical Note
The Six Types of Voters
Damage Done?
Today’s Polls, 3/18
An Objective (?) Take on Obama’s Speech
Today’s Polls, 3/19
Obama Retains Electability Advantage, but Both Democrats Below 50%
Wright and the Obamacans
Today’s Polls, 3/21
Today’s Polls, 3/22
Tonight’s Polls, 3/24
Today’s Polls, 3/25
Today’s Polls, 3/26
And Today's Other Poll...
Schrödinger’s Poll
McCain within 3 of Clinton in California, Connecticut [UPDATED]
And Today’s Other Poll…
McCain’s first target: New Mexico
Today’s Polls: Bad news for both Dems in Virginia
Fivethrityeight.com now twice as good
Today's Polls, 3/29
Win Percentage Tracker
Today’s Polls, 3/29
Win Percentage Tracker
A Boring Poll, and a Pop Quiz
Today’s Polls, 3/31
Rasmussen, Survey USA, Enthusiasm and Likely Voters
State-by-State Fundraising Numbers
A Game-Changer in Ohio?
The Reverse Bradley Effect: Fact or Fiction?
Site Fixes
Today’s Polls: Great News for Hillary
It’s 3 AM: Time to Fire Your Creative Director
Polls Now Weighted by Sample Size
Today’s Polls, 4/3: A 30,000-foot look at Pennsylvania
Today’s Polls, 4/4
The Clinton Voters who won’t vote for Obama, Part II
Saturday Night Nerdiness
Today’s Polls, 4/6
The Momentumless Primary
Graph(s) of the Day
Today’s Polls, 4/7
Clinton and Education Levels
Barr, the Libertarians and Georgia
Tonight's Polls, 4/8
If 538 were trying to predict the PA primary... [UPDATED]
Tonight’s Polls, 4/8
African-American turnout in the primaries
The Education Gap, Part II
If 538 were trying to predict the PA primary… [UPDATED]
We know even less than we think (a methodological note)
WNBC/Marist: New York a Swing State?
Makeover
Obama: the Zima-track candidate?
Today’s Polls: Alaska!
Small States, Big Advantage
If it worked for Joe Klein...
Regions
Contemplating the Unity Bounce
If it worked for Joe Klein…
Today’s Polls, 4/11
Clinton’s Unity Bounce
Regions
Today’s Polls, 4/12
Clinging to Guns
Regions, the resolution
Daily tracking polls show apparently split verdict on Obama
Michigan versus Ohio (and Pennsylvania)
Today’s Polls, 4/14
Michigan versus Ohio (and Pennsylvania)
ARG!
Quinnipiac: ‘Bitter’ having no effect in Pennsylvania’s small towns (updated)
Today’s Polls, 4/15
Electoral Projections Done Right: Pennsylvania Prediction: Clinton to net 12 delegates, 120K popular votes
Three Thoughts on Tonight's Debate
Pennsylvania Prediction: Clinton to net 12 delegates, 120K popular votes
Three Thoughts on Tonight’s Debate
On the value of the campaign
Today’s Polls, 4/17: Obama takes a hit, with caveat
Dear George: voters don’t care about electability
John McCain: Darling of the East Coast?
Today’s Polls, 4/18
Are Undecideds leaning Clinton in Pennsylvania?
The Other Side of the Undecided Coin
Today’s Polls, 4/20
The Pennsylvania Lottery
It’s the turnout, stupid! [UPDATED]
Today’s Polls, 4/21
The Road Not Taken
Expectations and Realities
Today’s (General Election) Polls, 4/22
Matt Drudge: Drama Queen
Pennsylvania Scorecard
Pennsylvania: Lackadaisical Liveblog
Today’s Polls, 4/23
Math for Donkeys
Indiana Stragglers (UPDATED)
Overton Window
Today’s Polls, 4/24
Will Clinton get a Keystone Bounce?
Indiana Stragglers (UPDATED)
The Vindictive Clinton Voter, and Other Myths
Today’s Polls, 4/25
Is Indiana really more important than North Carolina?
Regression Model Q&A
This Morning’s Poll, and a Regression Model Makeover
Regression Model Q&A
Is Indiana really more important than North Carolina?
The Road Veers Right
Call me contrarian, but...
Today's Polls, 4/28
Pollster Ratings v3.0
Call me contrarian, but…
Clinton’s Bounce
Wine States versus Beer States
Electoral Projections Done Right: Electoral History Charts
One benefit of falling poll numbers...
Today’s Polls, 4/28
Electoral History Charts
Clinton +2 in North Carolina?
Voters v. Media: a concerning result
One benefit of falling poll numbers…
Pollster Ratings, v3.1
This Morning’s Polls, 4/30
Clinton +2 in North Carolina?
Voters v. Media: a concerning result
Indiana Prediction: Toss-Up, but tilts Clinton; possible 36-36 delegate split
Today’s Polls, 5/1
It’s not all about Obama
ARG Attacks!
Make your own North Carolina prediction
Today’s Polls: Obama and Clinton chasing 50% against McCain
Tarheel Tidbits
Today’s Polls, 5/3
OR-51 for the Win?
CBS/NYT: Both Dems lead McCain by double digits
Obama's favorite pollsters (and Clinton's)
North Carolina Prediction: Obama by Double Digits
Today’s Polls, 5/5
Late Movement?
Obama’s favorite pollsters (and Clinton’s)
African-American turnout in North Carolina, Part II
Indiana Scorecard
North Carolina Scorecard
The older bird gets the worm?
Obama Margin of Error
Election Night Thread
The Superdelegate Thermostat
Today's Polls, 5/7
Quote of the Day
Victory Lap?
The Eighth Reason
Did Clinton Misplay her Ace?
Today’s Polls, 5/7
The Superdelegate Thermostat
Hers if She Wants It?
Today’s Polls, 5/8
Everything you always wanted to know about Obama’s pledged delegate clinching scenarios*
Rasmussen: Obama leads Clinton by 11 since North Carolina victory
Challenge to Dick Bennett of American Research Group
Today’s Polls, 5/10
Does Clinton really lead in Swing Districts?
Electoral Projections Done Right: Black, Youth and Latino Turnout, and Obama's Electoral Map
Q&A on Minority Turnout Model
Tonight's Polls, 5/11
What are they waiting for?
Black, Youth and Latino Turnout, and Obama’s Electoral Map
Tonight’s Polls, 5/11
Q&A on Minority Turnout Model
Five Reasons why 2012 is a No-Go for Clinton
Today’s Polls, 5/12
Would Obama win the California primary today?
Clinton wins West Virginia
West Virginia Preview: Clinton by 39 points, 105,000 votes
Back-of-envelope
Clinton wins West Virginia
Two Wrongs make a Right?
The Early Bird still got the Worm
Hillary’s Oregon Problem
A landmark, of sorts
Multiple Choice
Delegate Scenarios, Edwards Edition
Among working class whites, Clinton kicked Edwards’ ass too
Today’s Polls, 5/15
But Dukakis <span style="font-style:italic;">won</span> West Virginia
Meanwhile, on Planet Obama...
But Dukakis won West Virginia
Meanwhile, on Planet Obama…
Gay rights issues present opportunities for both candidates
Today’s Polls, 5/16
War Games?
Today’s Polls, 5/17
Hope for Hillary in Oregon?
Oregon: Swing State or latte-drinking, Prius-driving lesbian commune?
Like Kissing Your Sister
Today’s Polls, 5/18
Like Kissing Your Sister
Oregon Projection: Obama by 13
Today’s Polls, 5/19
Clinton is blowing the popular vote argument
It seems trivial now...
Primary Night Thread II (Oregon)
Revised Oregon turnout estimate
Kentucky Projection: Clinton by 19
RSS Feed
Today’s Polls, 5/20
It seems trivial now…
Move along, nothing to see here
Kentucky/Oregon Primary Night Thread
National Review solves Fermat's Last Theorem
Primary Night Thread II (Oregon)
Kentucky/Oregon wrap-up
Today’s Polls, 5/21 [UPDATED]
Wish List
Three-Way?
National Review solves Fermat’s Last Theorem
Can Obama Clinch on June 3rd?
Today’s Polls, 5/22
Today’s Polls II, 5/22
Michigan: What would have happened?
It’s rare to tap the #2
Today’s Polls, 5/23
Party Identification in Ohio
Michigan: What would have happened?
Today’s Polls, 5/24
Today’s Polls, 5/25