fivethirtyeightindex

Explore 21,350 pages from fivethirtyeight.com preserved by the Internet Archive

October 2020

We’ve Had 56 Statewide Elections During The Pandemic. Here’s What We Learned From Them.
The New-Look Patriots Are Still Finding Ways To Win
How Trump Could Spark A Full-Blown Election Crisis
The Lakers And Heat Missed The Playoffs. Then They Started Cooking Their Finals Rosters.
Is The Supreme Court Losing Legitimacy?
Politics Podcast: Is The Supreme Court Losing Legitimacy?
What It Means When Democrats Talk About Packing The Court
Republicans Are Less Confident Than Democrats That The Election Will Be Conducted Fairly
Can You Eat All The Chocolates?
Patrick Mahomes Just Doesn’t Have Bad Games
The Seattle Storm Have Been Here Before. Can The Las Vegas Aces Break Through?
How Will Trump’s Positive COVID-19 Test Affect The Election?
September’s Jobs Report Is A Political Rorschach Test
How Have People Responded To Other Political Leaders Getting COVID-19?
Emergency Podcast: Trump Tests Positive For COVID-19
Emergency Politics Podcast: Trump Tests Positive For COVID-19
The Heat Need Duncan Robinson’s 3-Pointers Now More Than Ever
Trump Tested Positive For COVID-19. Now What?
Trump Has An Elevated Risk Of Severe COVID-19. But It Helps To Be The President.
How Hatred Came To Dominate American Politics
More States Are Using Ballot Drop Boxes. Why Are They So Controversial?
Jimmy Butler Outplayed LeBron James And Bought Miami Some Breathing Room
These NBA Playoffs Are All About The Clutch Shooters
How Americans Are Reacting To Trump’s COVID-19 Diagnosis
Who’s The Best Of The NFL’s Worst?
Biden Has Made Some Modest Gains After The Debate
What We Know About The President's Health
Politics Podcast: How The President’s Health Could Shape The Rest Of The Campaign
What We Actually Know About The President’s Health
Trump Is Giving Dangerous Advice. Being Afraid Of COVID-19 Has Helped Us Control COVID-19.
How The Two-Party System Obscures The Complexity Of Black Americans’ Politics
This Rotation Isn’t ‘Vintage Braves,’ But Atlanta Is Making It Work
The Seattle Storm’s Dynamic Duo Is On The Brink Of Another Title
The Heat Took A Page From The Lakers’ Playbook
Which Bill O’Brien Was Worse, The Coach Or The GM?
The Economy Was Trump’s One Remaining Advantage. Now He Might Have Blown It.
VP Debates Usually Don’t Matter. But We’re Way Past Usual.
The Big 12 Can’t Rely On Texas And Oklahoma This Year
Our Forecast Thinks Democrats Will Keep The House … And Maybe Even Gain Seats
Jimmy Butler Started Hot. Then The Lakers Cooled Him Down.
Take Negative COVID-19 Tests Seriously, But Not Literally
Breanna Stewart Is Coming For The Record Books
Trump Has Three Big Problems Heading Toward Election Day
Biden Got Some Of His Best Polls This Week
The President Took A Rare Combination Of COVID-19 Drugs. Will It Help?
What Went Down During The Vice Presidential Debate
What To Watch For During The Vice Presidential Debate
Pence And Harris Evade Questions In VP Debate
How Did Lindsey Graham End Up In Such A Close Race?
How Can Miami Get Back Into The NBA Finals?
The L.A. Rams Are Running Their Way Back Into Contention
The Vice Presidential Debate Was Civil. But Did It Shake Up The Race?
Trump Doesn’t Know Why Crime Rises or Falls. Neither Does Biden. Or Any Other Politician.
Does Trump Need The Next Debate?
A Contested 2020 Election Would Be Way Worse Than Bush v. Gore
Trump’s Bout With COVID-19 Might Be Hurting His Reelection Chances
Can You Parallel Park Your Car?
What Are The Possible Side Effects Of Trump’s COVID-19 Treatment?
Scoring Is Way Up In The NFL. Which Teams Does That Help?
The Postseason Is A Two-Strike Game, And Other Observations From The MLB Playoffs
Model Talk: Trump's Position Worsens
Politics Podcast: How The Model Is Responding To Biden’s Double-Digit Lead In The Polls
The Politics Podcast Answers Your Questions About The Forecast
LeBron And AD Are The Heroes. But The Sum Of This Lakers Club Was More Than Its Superstar Parts.
What To Watch For During This Week’s Supreme Court Confirmation Hearings
Why The Supreme Court’s Reputation Is At Stake
Do You Buy That … Biden Is Gaining With Older Voters?
Hundreds Of Schools Are Still Using Native Americans As Team Mascots
The Battle Lines Are Set After The First Day Of The Amy Coney Barrett Hearings
NFL Week 5 Upsets Were Overshadowed By Dak Prescott’s Awful Injury
The Sun Belt Could Decide Control Of The Senate
Politics Podcast: The Road To A Senate Majority Runs Through The Sun Belt
How President Trump Could Still Win Reelection
What Pollsters Have Changed Since 2016 — And What Still Worries Them About 2020
Why Rejected Ballots Could Be A Big Problem In 2020
The 2020 Rays Are Doing More With Less, Even More Than Usual
You Can’t Learn Much From One COVID-19 Patient — Even When That Patient Is President Trump
Why Democratic Senate Candidates Are Competitive In Red States Like Alaska, Kansas And Montana
LeBron James Won It All Again, So Is The GOAT Debate Finally Over? LOL, No.
Why The Amy Coney Barrett Hearings Are Verging On The Absurd
How Conservative Is Amy Coney Barrett?
Anthony Davis Was Key For The Lakers’ Title Run. He’s Also The Key To Their Future.
The Vote And Voting Problems, Pre-Election Day 2020
Can The Georgia Bulldogs Finally Win The Big Game?
What We’ve Managed To Learn About How Amy Coney Barrett Would Rule On Abortion And The Election
Will Georgia Turn Blue?
What Amy Coney Barrett’s Confirmation Could Mean For Roe v. Wade
Voting In The 2020 Primaries Didn’t Worsen The COVID-19 Pandemic
If Billy Beane Is Done With Baseball, He’s Left An Indelible Mark
Why Has Premier League Scoring Skyrocketed?
The NFC East Is Historically Bad. How Much Worse Can It Get?
Trump Said QAnon ‘Fights’ Pedophilia. But The Group Has Made It Harder To Protect Kids.
Despite A Sexting Scandal, Democrat Cal Cunningham Is Favored In North Carolina’s Senate Race
What We Learned From The Amy Coney Barrett Hearings
Politics Podcast: What We Learned From The Amy Coney Barrett Hearings
Democrats Don’t Need To Win Georgia, Iowa, Ohio Or Texas — But They Could
Wisconsin Was Never A Safe Blue State
Is The Price Right?
Running Backs Are As Replaceable As Ever This Year. So Why Did Kansas City Pick Up Le’Veon Bell?
Freddie Freeman Took The Leap. Now The Braves Are One Game Away From Doing The Same.
Would Biden’s COVID-19 Plan Be Able To Control The Pandemic?
Model Talk: Why Democrats' Chances Of Winning The Senate Have Increased
Politics Podcast: Why Democrats’ Chances Of Winning The Senate Have Increased
How Does Early Voting Affect The Forecast? And Other Listener Questions.
Confidence Interval: Will Democrats Win The House, Senate And Presidency In November?
8 Tips To Stay Sane In The Final 15 Days Of The Campaign
Trump Is Losing Ground With White Voters But Gaining Among Black And Hispanic Americans
The Economy Won’t Be Back To Normal Until 2022 Or Later, According To Our Survey Of Economists
Do You Buy That … Republicans Should Be Worried About The Early Voting Turnout So Far?
What A Summer Of COVID-19 Taught Scientists About Indoor vs. Outdoor Transmission
The NHL Says ‘Hockey Is For Everyone.’ Black Players Aren’t So Sure.
Aaron Rodgers Has A Bad Day, The Titans’ Offense Keeps On Chugging, And The Bears Continue To Confound
The Most Vulnerable Incumbent In The House Is A Democrat, But Republicans Are Defending More Competitive Seats
Embrace The Uncertainty
Politics Podcast: Why Biden’s Lead Is Different
What Full Democratic Control Of The White House And Congress Would Look Like
Why Trump Is Losing White Suburban Women
Could Democrats Win Full Control Of More State Governments Than Republicans?
Do The WNBA’s Most Improved Players Keep Up Their Success?
What To Watch For In One Of The Most Intriguing World Series Ever
Why A Gamer Started A Web Of Disinformation Sites Aimed At Latino Americans
Will The Best Teams Make For The Best World Series?
The Most Competitive Races In 2020
Politics Podcast: The Most Competitive Races In 2020
The Most Competitive Races Aren’t In Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania
We’re Letting You Mess With Our Presidential Forecast, But Try Not To Make The Map Too Weird
Why A Surge In Republican Voter Registration Might Not Mean A Surge In Trump Support
Home Teams Aren’t Winning As Much In College Football This Season. The Big Ten Should Fit Right In.
Are The Chicago Bears Good Or Just Lucky?
How Voting Is Going So Far
Politics Podcast: How Voting Is Going So Far In 2020
States Changed Laws To Make It Easier To Vote In 2020. It’s Resulted In Hundreds Of Lawsuits.
What Would Democrats Do If They Controlled Congress And The White House?
Is Tonight’s Presidential Debate Too Late To Shake Up The Race?
Don’t Tell Derrick Henry That Running Backs Don’t Matter
Where The Presidential Race Stands Before The Last Debate
Daryl Morey Made A Lot Of Trades. How Much Did They Help The Rockets?
Will We Know The Winner On Election Night? Pay Attention To These States.
What To Watch For During The Final Presidential Debate
What Went Down During The Final Presidential Debate Of 2020
The Second Debate Is Over And The Final Stage Of The Campaign Is Here
Polling 101: What Happened To The Polls In 2016 — And What You Should Know About Them In 2020
The Issues That Divide People Within Each Party
Politics Podcast: The Last Debate Is Over And The Final Stage Of The Campaign Has Begun
Can You Feed The Hot Hand?
Will The Race Tighten After The Final Debate?
What 2 Games Of The World Series Have Shown Us
Model Talk: National And District-Level Polls Disagree
Politics Podcast: National And District-Level Polls Disagree About How Close The 2020 Election Is
Will A Runoff In Georgia Decide Control Of The Senate? And Other Listener Questions.
Do You Buy That … We Will Know Who Won On Election Night?
The Dodgers Went From A Stunning Loss To The Brink Of A Championship
Fewer Undecided Voters Is Good News For Biden In The Midwest
Are Bad NFL Defenses Breaking Win Probability Models?
October Surprises Don't Usually Decide Elections
Politics Podcast: Could Any Surprises Still Affect The Race For President?
Trump Hasn’t Gained Ground Since The Debate, And He’s Running Out Of Time
Surprise! October Surprises Don’t Usually Decide Elections
The Cases Where Amy Coney Barrett’s Presence On The Supreme Court Could Make A Difference Immediately
Technical Difficulties On Election Day Won’t Mean Democracy Is Over
Control Of Redistricting Is Up For Grabs In 2020. Here Are The Races To Watch.
Is Joe Biden Toast If He Loses Pennsylvania?
Who’s The Best Quarterback From The Much-Hyped 2018 Draft Class?
How The Media Projects The Winner Of An Election
Politics Podcast: How The Media Projects The Winner Of An Election
The Senate Races Where Democrats Have An Edge In The Polls
The Decision Desk Won’t Project The Winner Of A State Until It’s 99.5% Sure
Who’s The Nerdiest Team In Sports?
Fear Of Voter Intimidation Is Its Own Voter Intimidation
What To Make Of That New Wisconsin Poll That Has Biden Way Ahead
Inside The Political Donation History Of Wealthy Sports Owners
The Dodgers Were The Best Team. And The Best Team Won.
Is There A Chance The Winner In 2020 Will Be Able To Credibly Claim A Mandate?
Private: lb-test
How We Expect The Electorate To Look In 2020
Politics Podcast: How We Expect The Electorate To Look In 2020
How The Electorate Will Be Different In 2020 Compared With 2016
We Have A Lot Of New Polls, But There’s Little Sign Of The Presidential Race Tightening
Why Pennsylvania’s Vote Count Could Change After Election Night
Is This The Year A Team From Outside The Power Five Crashes The College Football Playoff?
Drew Brees Almost Never Throws Deep Anymore. Is That A Problem For The Saints?
How To Vote Safely In A Pandemic
Trump Is Losing Ground With Some — But Not All — White Christians
Democrats And Republicans Are Spending Millions On TV Advertising. Will It Even Make A Difference?
QAnon Isn’t Going To Take Over Congress In 2020. But It’s Found A Home In The GOP.
The Under-Covered Stories Of The 2020 Election
Politics Podcast: All The Stuff We Should Have Talked More About In 2020
The Battleground States Where We’ve Seen Some Movement In The Polls
The Stories That Haven’t Gotten Enough Coverage In 2020
Why Younger Americans Don’t Vote More Often (*No, It’s Not Apathy)
Americans Say They’re Fired Up To Vote — Especially Democrats
When To Expect Election Results In Every State
Beware The Hot Pumpkin
The Dodgers’ Championship Machine Took A Decade — And A Lot Of Money — To Build
Model Talk: There Still Isn't Evidence Of 'Shy' Trump Voters
Biden Doesn’t Have A Popularity Problem. That Might Help Him Win.
Politics Podcast: There Just Isn’t Good Evidence That ‘Shy’ Trump Voters Exist
Why Trump Has A Better Chance Of Winning Pennsylvania Than Wisconsin Or Michigan
What Are The Chances We’ll Know The Next President On Election Night?
11 States Are Choosing Their Governor On Tuesday. Here Are The Races To Watch.
The 21 Ballot Measures We’re Watching This Election
How To Vote Safely In A Pandemic
Both Candidates Might Fall Short Of 270 Electoral Votes On Election Night. But How Close Might They Get?
Trump Can Still Win, But The Polls Would Have To Be Off By Way More Than In 2016