Nathaniel Rakich (676 entries)

It’s Really Hard To Block A Cabinet Nominee
Will Trump’s Approval Rating Be A Problem For Republicans In 2018?
Democrats Are Overperforming In Special Elections Almost Everywhere
The Recent Rush Of GOP Retirements Is Good For Democrats
The 2017 Elections Suggest Incumbency Won’t Save Republicans In 2018
Why Republicans Are Leaving The House — And Who Might Be Next
We’ve Never Seen Congressional Resignations Like This Before
The 2018 Gubernatorial Map Favors Democrats
The Shutdown Lesson People Seem To Have Trouble Learning
The 7 Governorships Republicans Could Pick Up This Year
The 18 (!) Governorships Democrats Could Pick Up This Year
How Things Could Go Wrong For Republicans In Mississippi’s New Senate Race
The States Where Democrats Are Overperforming Most — And Least — In Special Elections
Watch The Pennsylvania 18th Special Election Like A Pro
The Pennsylvania 18th Result Tells Us What Everything Has Been Telling Us For A While
Are We Seeing The Start Of A Liberal Tea Party?
Be Skeptical Of Anyone Who Tells You They Know How Democrats Can Win In November
Paul Ryan’s Retirement Makes His District — And The Whole House — More Competitive
Watch The Arizona 8th Special Election Like A Pro
Democrats’ Horrible 2018 Senate Map Couldn’t Have Come At A Better Time
What’s At Stake In The First Big Primary Day Of 2018
Internal Polls Are Usually Bunk
This Week’s Primary Briefing: Pennsylvania, Nebraska, Idaho And Oregon
The #Resistance Had A Very Good Night
Primary Briefing: Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky And Texas
What Went Down In Tuesday’s Southern Primaries
The Early Races To Watch On The Biggest Primary Day Of 2018
The Late Races To Watch On The Biggest Primary Day Of 2018
California’s Jungle Primary Might Screw Over Both Parties
Primary Briefing: Virginia, Nevada, South Carolina, North Dakota
Maine Is Trying Out A New Way To Run Elections. But Will It Survive The Night?
Four Key Questions Today’s Primaries Will Help Answer
The Democrat Is Up Big In Arizona’s Senate Race — For Now
Saturday’s Special Election In Texas Could Be A Good Sign For The GOP … Or Not
We’re Divided On Patriotism Too
Is Trump Fueling Republicans’ Concerns About NATO, Or Echoing Them?
Americans Know Where They Stand On The Mueller Investigation
Brett Kavanaugh Is Polling Like Robert Bork And Harriet Miers
What Some Early, High-Quality Polls Can Tell Us About The Race For The House
Here Are All The Republicans Retiring From Congress In 2018
How Every Governor Ranks According To ‘Popularity Above Replacement Governor’
House Republicans Running For Higher Office Are Having A Tough Go Of It
The Gender Gap Among Midterm Voters Looks Huge — Maybe Even Record-Breaking
Primary Briefing: Missouri, Kansas, Michigan And Washington
Everything You Need To Know About The Ohio 12th Special Election
What Mattered Most In Ohio, Kansas And Tuesday’s Other Elections
We Researched Hundreds Of Races. Here’s Who Democrats Are Nominating.
Politics Podcast: Who Are Democrats Nominating?
Primary Briefing: Vermont, Connecticut, Minnesota And Wisconsin
We Looked At Hundreds Of Endorsements. Here’s Who Democrats Are Listening To.
25 Districts That Could Decide The House In 2018
Will Backing Trump’s Supreme Court Pick Help Or Hurt Red-State Democrats?
Primary Briefing: Alaska And Wyoming
Election Update: How Our House Forecast Compares With The Experts’ Ratings
Election Update: Here Are 25 Districts Where Our Model And Other Experts Disagree
Could A Libertarian Win A Senate Race This Year?
Primary Briefing: Florida, Arizona And Oklahoma
Election Update: Republicans Aren’t Too Vulnerable In Florida, Arizona And Oklahoma … Yet
Will We Get The Next Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez In This Week’s Primaries?
Why Ayanna Pressley’s Upset Win In Massachusetts Isn’t Really Like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s
Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts
The Last 2018 Primary Briefing: New Hampshire, Rhode Island And New York
Election Update: The Swing District Showdown
Election Update: Democrats’ Chances In The 13 Romney-Clinton Districts
Election Update: Who’s Leading In Obama-Trump Districts
We Looked At Hundreds Of Endorsements. Here’s Who Republicans Are Listening To.
Election Update: One Way The House Map Actually Helps Democrats
Election Update: Here’s How We Decide Who’s Involved In A Scandal
A Big Blue Wave Could Overwhelm The GOP’s Advantage In The House
Six Districts The GOP Appears To Have Abandoned — And Maybe Two More It Should
The States Where Democrats Or Republicans Could Seize Full Control Of Government
Election Update: How The Latest Fundraising Numbers Shifted Our House Forecasts
These 20-Somethings Could Be Elected To Congress
These 20-Somethings Could Be Elected To Congress [video]
Election Update: Republicans’ Overall Senate Chances Are Holding Steady
These 8 Attorney-General Races Could Make A Big Difference To Trump’s Agenda
Election Update: Some Competitive Races Have Little To No Polling. That’s A Problem.
Election Update: 100 Women — Or More — Could Be Elected To The House
Election Update: Return Of The Special Elections
House Update: Here’s Why We Need Polls In Red Districts — They Might Not Be So Red
House Update: Where Democrats And Republicans Are Outperforming Their Party
Senate Update: How This Year’s Race Sets Up 2020
Forget About The Candidates. What Else Is On The Ballot This Week?
How To Watch The Midterms: An Hour-By-Hour Guide
Five Races That May Not Be Decided Tuesday. Or Wednesday. Or Thursday …
Our Final Forecast In The Senate, House And Gubernatorial Races
How Democrats Won The House
We’re Tracking The Unresolved Midterm Races
Why Nancy Pelosi Isn’t Guaranteed The Speakership
Something Looks Weird In Broward County. Here’s What We Know About A Possible Florida Recount.
Everything Is Partisan And Correlated And Boring
Everything You Need To Know About The Mississippi Senate Runoff
The Last Unresolved House Race Of 2018
The Senate Will Be Competitive Again In 2020, But Republicans Are Favored
What The Heck Is Happening In That North Carolina House Race?
How Much Was Incumbency Worth In 2018?
Trump Is Only Popular In Rural Areas
What Comes Next In That Contested Election In North Carolina
How Red-State Democrats Became An Endangered Species In The Senate
What I Got Wrong In 2018
How Elizabeth Warren Could Win The 2020 Democratic Primary
The Public Blamed Trump For The Shutdown — But That May Be Changing
Two Years In, Turnover In Trump’s Cabinet Is Still Historically High
What’s The Holdup In That Unresolved North Carolina House Race?
How Will The Shutdown End?
What Elizabeth Warren’s Last Election Can Tell Us About 2020
We Built A Polling Model … For The Baseball Hall Of Fame
Mariano Rivera’s Unanimous Induction Shows An Evolving Cooperstown
How Tulsi Gabbard Could Win The 2020 Democratic Nomination
Early-Voting Laws Probably Don’t Boost Turnout
What The State Of The Union Won’t Do
What Should Stacey Abrams Run For Next?
Which 2020 Democrats Already Have A Fan Base — And Which Don’t
Independents Trust Mueller, Which Could Be Bad News For Trump
How Much Trouble Could Bill Weld Cause Trump In The 2020 GOP Primary?
North Carolina Is Getting A Do-Over Election
Democratic Voters’ Second Choices Show How Fluid The 2020 Primary Race Is
How John Hickenlooper Could Win The 2020 Democratic Nomination
Which 2020 Candidate Got The Biggest Polling Bump Out Of Their Kickoff?
The Movement To Skip The Electoral College Is About To Pass A Major Milestone
Democrats Care More About Winning Than Usual
What Early 2020 Ratings Can And Can’t Tell Us
Why Klobuchar’s Strength In Minnesota May Not Translate To The Primaries
How Andrew Yang Could Win The 2020 Democratic Primary
We’re Keeping An Eye On Wayne Messam (The Florida Mayor Running For President)
What Voters Say They Want In A Candidate Today May Not Be What They Vote For Tomorrow
Beto O’Rourke Didn’t Get Much Of A Kickoff Bump, But He’s Not Alone
Is Pete Buttigieg’s Surge Real Or A Mirage?
How The Giant Democratic Primary Field Messes With Polls
How Eric Swalwell Could Win The 2020 Democratic Primary
How Scared Should House Freshmen Be Of Threats To Primary Them?
Special Elections Foreshadowed A Blue Wave In 2018. What Are They Saying Now?
Running For President Is Easier When You Have Nothing To Lose
Roy Moore Leads A New Poll In Alabama, But His Advantage May Not Last
How Seth Moulton Could Win The 2020 Democratic Primary
Democrats Think Biden Is Electable, But He’s Not Everyone’s First Choice
How Marianne Williamson Could Win The 2020 Democratic Primary
How Americans — And Democratic Candidates — Feel About Letting Felons Vote
Our ‘Popularity Above Replacement Governor’ Rankings Are Back
How Every Senator Ranks According To ‘Popularity Above Replacement Senator’
Sick Of 2020 Already? Most Voters Aren’t.
North Carolina’s Do-Over U.S. House Election Starts Tuesday
How Steve Bullock Could Win The 2020 Democratic Primary
The States Where Trump Is More (And Less) Popular Than He ‘Should’ Be
The Candidates Who Are Going All In On Iowa Or New Hampshire
The Movement To Skip The Electoral College Is Picking Up Steam
Which 2020 Candidates Are More (Or Less) Popular Than They ‘Should’ Be?
The Bottom Of The Democratic Field Is Making Moves, Too
Most Americans Agree That WWII Was Justified. Recent Conflicts Are More Divisive.
The State Of The State Of The States
The DNC Tried To Avoid A Lopsided Debate. It Got One Anyway.
Three Democrats Have A Big Built-In Advantage in New Hampshire
Our Best Tool For Predicting Midterm Elections Works In Presidential Years Too
No, Florida Is Not Redder Than Texas
Iowans Won’t Vote For You Just Because You’re Their Neighbor
Where Kamala Harris’s New Voters Came From
Why We’re Not Treating Tom Steyer As A ‘Major’ Candidate (Yet)
Lanes Are Starting To Emerge In The 2020 Democratic Primary
Second Place In The Democratic Primary Is Crowded — That’s Not Good For Sanders
How Joe Sestak Could Win The 2020 Democratic Primary
Democrats Are Winning The Fundraising Race In The Senate
Mitch McConnell Is The Only Senator More Unpopular Than Susan Collins
How To Read 2020 Polls Like A FiveThirtyEighter
How Tom Steyer Could Win The 2020 Democratic Primary
‘The Squad’ Probably Doesn’t Have To Worry About Primary Challengers
How Views On Gun Control Have Changed In The Last 30 Years
A Farewell To Mike Gravel, 2020’s Weirdest Presidential Candidate
Where Are Candidates Spending All Their Time?
The Movement To Skip The Electoral College May Take Its First Step Back
John Hickenlooper’s Presidential Campaign Is Over. Can He Flip A Senate Seat Instead?
There Are 5 Governors Being Targeted For Recalls
Politics Podcast: Your Best 2020 Preview May Be The 2019 Elections
John Hickenlooper Is Running For Senate. But Did He Miss His Chance?
Why Seth Moulton’s Campaign Failed
Could Corey Lewandowski Help Republicans Win The New Hampshire Senate Race?
After Two Debates, Warren Is Getting More Popular
Trump Isn’t In Danger Of Losing The Primary, But All These Challengers Could Still Have An Impact.
Georgia Will Now Have Two Senate Elections In 2020
Everyone Thinks Justin Verlander Belongs In The Hall Of Fame. So Why Don’t The Stats Agree?
Don’t Let Crowd Sizes Mislead You
Americans’ Views Of The Economy Are Partisan, But They’re Not Immune To Bad News
The North Carolina 9th Is Holding A Do-Over Election. Here’s How To Watch It Like A Pro.
Republicans Won Both Elections In North Carolina — But It’s Not All Bad News For Democrats
Politics Podcast: What Happened When The Front-Runners Were All On Stage
The Third Debate Influenced Those Who Watched … But A Lot Of People Didn’t
Who Won The Debate Among Voters Who Prioritize Electability? Health Care? Climate Change?
Why Bill de Blasio’s Campaign Failed (Hint: Nobody Liked Him)
The Latest Iowa Poll Is Good News For Elizabeth Warren And Tulsi Gabbard
Who Will Make The Fifth Democratic Debate?
Joe Kennedy Isn’t Your Usual Upstart Primary Challenger
There Will Now Be 12 Candidates In The October Democratic Primary Debate
Which 2020 Candidates Are Running The Most TV Ads?
Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump?
How Has The Ukraine Scandal Affected Trump’s Approval Rating?
Two Weeks In, Impeachment Is Becoming More Popular
What Happened When 2.2 Million People Were Automatically Registered To Vote
Can A Democrat Get Reelected Governor In Louisiana?
Biden Supporters Used To Say Sanders Was Their Second Choice — Now They Say Warren
Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? [project]
We’ve Already Seen Twice As Many Presidential TV Ads Than At This Point In The 2016 Election
Nine Candidates Have Made The November Democratic Debate So Far
Where The Public Stands On Impeachment One Month In
Buttigieg’s Centrist Pivot May Be Winning Him A New Base
Everything You Need To Know About The 2019 Elections
Democrats Score Election Victories In Virginia And (Probably) Kentucky
Politics Podcast: What The 2019 Election Results Mean
Warren’s Polls Have Leveled Off — At Least For Now
What Virginia, Mississippi and Kentucky Can Tell Us About 2020
How Seriously Should We Take Michael Bloomberg’s Potential 2020 Run?
Running For President May Make You More Unpopular In Your Home State
What The Polls Say About Impeachment Before The First Public Hearing
We’ve Got Some New Polls For Bloomberg’s Potential Campaign. They Aren’t Great.
What Happens If Buttigieg Wins Iowa?
Most Democrats Have Picked A Candidate, But They Could Still Change Their Minds
Politics Podcast: Day 3 Of The Hearings Zooms In On Trump-Zelensky Phone Call
How Michael Bloomberg’s Late Bid For The Democratic Nomination Could Go
What Is A Political Trifecta, And Why Does It Matter?
What Is A Political Trifecta, And Why Does It Matter? [video]
The Winnowing Continues With Steve Bullock And Joe Sestak
Michael Bloomberg Outspent The Entire Democratic Field In TV Ads Last Week
North Carolina’s New House Map Hands Democrats Two Seats — But It Still Leans Republican
Who’s Leading The Democratic Primary In Super Tuesday States?
What I Got Wrong In 2019
Trump Is The Most Unpopular President Since Ford To Run For Reelection
Foreign Policy Doesn’t Usually Affect Elections. Could Iran Be Different?
Americans Don’t Know What To Think About Trump’s Iran Strategy
Why Marianne Williamson’s Unconventional Presidential Bid Didn’t Catch On
What The Heck Is Going On With Tom Steyer’s Poll Numbers?
Who’s On Track To Make The Baseball Hall Of Fame?
How The Democratic Candidates’ Popularity Has Changed Over A Year Of Campaigning
What The Latest Polling On Trump’s Removal Does (And Doesn’t) Mean
Which Democratic Candidate Had The Biggest Surge In Popularity This Year?
Which Democratic Candidate Had The Biggest Surge In Popularity This Year? [video]
Inside The Field Offices Of The Iowa Caucuses
Election Update: Sanders Is Pulling Closer To Biden, But He’s Still Got A Ways To Go
What Our Forecast Says About The Iowa Caucuses At The District Level
Why The State Of The Union Doesn’t Have A Big Political Impact
Plenty Of Iowans Were Ready To Ditch The Caucuses — Even Before Monday Night
With More Results In, Buttigieg And Sanders Still Lead In Iowa — Biden Still Fourth
Latest From Iowa: Buttigieg Still Leads On Delegates, Sanders On Votes, But It’s Close
Satellite Caucuses Give A Surprise Boost To Sanders In Iowa
Election Update: Buttigieg Is Rising In New Hampshire
Election Update: The Polling Picture In New Hampshire Is Actually Pretty Clear
Election Update: Our First Big National Poll Shows Just How Unsettled The Race Is
What Our Forecast Says About The New Hampshire Primary At The District Level
How Sanders Held Off Buttigieg And Klobuchar In New Hampshire
Election Update: The First Polls Since New Hampshire Show No Big Bounces
6 Candidates Have Made The Nevada Debate — Including Bloomberg
Election Update: Bloomberg’s Super Tuesday Gamble May Be Paying Off
Election Update: We Got A Flurry Of New National Polls. Sanders Led Them All.
Sanders Has An Edge Among Latino Voters In Nevada. Will It Hold?
How Nevada’s Three Sets Of Results Could Affect Who ‘Wins’
Our Final Forecast For The Nevada Caucuses
What Our Forecast Says About The Nevada Caucuses At The District Level
With 7 Candidates Debating In South Carolina, The Stage Is, Umm, Getting Larger ?
Election Update: What Our Forecast Says About Every Super Tuesday State
Election Update: Biden Surges In South Carolina
What Our Forecast Says In Massachusetts, Maine And Vermont
What Our Forecast Says About The South Carolina Primary At The District Level
Election Update: South Carolina — And A Bunch Of New Polls — Are Showing A Close Super Tuesday Race
Which Super Tuesday Races Do You Need To Care About? [video]
Election Update: Klobuchar’s Exit Boosts The Odds No One Will Win A Delegate Majority
Super Tuesday Preview: Sanders Is Favored In California, But Biden Is Strong In Parts Of The State
Our Final Forecast For Super Tuesday Shows Biden’s Surge — And Lots Of Uncertainty
Confidence Interval: The Media Will Underrate Bernie Sanders On Super Tuesday
Confidence Interval: The Media Will Underrate Bernie Sanders On Super Tuesday [video]
How Biden Beat Expectations On Super Tuesday
What We Know About The Voters Who Swung Super Tuesday For Biden
How The Rest Of The Primary Calendar Looks For Biden And Sanders
Election Preview: Sanders Is The Underdog In Michigan, But We’ve Heard That One Before
Election Preview: Sanders Looks Strongest In Washington, Idaho And North Dakota — But The Races Are Tight
What’s At Stake For Sanders In Today’s Primaries?
What’s At Stake For Sanders In Today’s Primaries? [video]
Why Sanders May Start Losing More Latino Voters To Biden
Historic Turnout In 2020? Not So Far.
5 States Have Postponed Their Primaries Because Of The Coronavirus
Biden Won Tuesday’s Primaries As Voters Embraced Voting By Mail
Politics Podcast: How COVID-19 Affected Tuesday’s Vote
Tulsi Gabbard Finally Ended Her Increasingly Quixotic Campaign
Americans’ Views On The Coronavirus Are Shifting Fast
13 Presidential Primaries Have Now Been Delayed Over The Coronavirus
New Polls And New Candidates Are Giving Democrats Some Hope Of Flipping The Senate
What Explains The Bump In Trump’s Approval Ratings?
The Pennsylvania Legislature Is Testing Out Remote Voting. Here’s How It Works.
What The Heck Is Going On With Wisconsin’s Primary?
Here’s What Voters Told Us About Voting In Wisconsin’s Primary
What Went Down In The Wisconsin Primary
How Urban Or Rural Is Your State? And What Does That Mean For The 2020 Election?
Who Do Americans Trust Most On COVID-19?
How Are Americans Adjusting To Life In A Pandemic?
The Coronavirus Means The 2020 Primary Season Will End Later Than Ever
Few States Are Prepared To Switch To Voting By Mail. That Could Make For A Messy Election.
How Does Biden Stack Up To Past Democratic Nominees?
Why Biden Probably Won’t Announce His Running Mate For Months
Switching To A Vote-By-Mail Election Is Tougher Than It Seems [video]
How The Media Has — And Hasn’t — Covered Tara Reade’s Allegation
What Went Down In Ohio’s Primary
Most Americans Think It’s Too Soon To Return To What Life Was Like Pre-Pandemic
Two Special Elections On Tuesday Could Hint At Another Blue Wave In 2020
What To Make Of Those New Senate Polls That Have Democrats Way Ahead
How The Elections In Nebraska And Wisconsin Managed Amid The Pandemic
We’ve Updated Our Pollster Ratings Ahead Of The 2020 General Election
What Special Elections Can Tell Us About November
Confidence Interval: If Trump Loses In 2020, He’ll Be The Nominee Again In 2024 [video]
How Accurate Are State Polls? And What Could That Mean For November?
Are Arizona, Georgia And Texas Really In Play?
3 States Have Made It Easier To Vote By Mail In November. Trump Isn’t Happy.
States Are Reopening, But Many Americans Say They Aren’t Rushing Back To Normal Life
How Accurate Have Senate Polls Been, And What Could That Mean For November?
Nine States (And D.C.) Have Elections Today. Here Are The Races To Watch.
Why It’s So Rare For Police Officers To Face Legal Consequences
What The June 2 Primaries Can Tell Us About November
What You Need To Know About Today’s Elections In Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina and West Virginia
Georgia Was A Mess. Here’s What Else We Know About The June 9 Elections.
How To Read Polls In 2020
Can We Tell Which States Will Be Swing States In November?
How Americans Feel About ‘Defunding The Police’
Today’s Elections In Kentucky And New York Are High-Stakes For The Progressive Movement
Why Biden’s Polling Lead Is Different From Clinton’s In 2016
Voter Registrations Are Way, Way Down During The Pandemic
Politics Podcast: New Voter Registrations Have Nosedived During COVID-19
How The Pandemic Is Already Affecting The Election [video]
How Arizona Became A Swing State
What You Need To Know About Today’s Elections In Colorado, Oklahoma And Utah
What You Need To Know About Today’s Elections In Alabama, Maine And Texas
Yes, Biden Has A Big Lead, But It’s Probably Not 15 Points
Secret Trump Voters Didn’t Decide 2016 And Probably Won’t Swing 2020 [video]
Americans Mostly Support Voting By Mail
Politics Podcast: The U.S. Isn’t Prepared For A Pandemic Election
Confidence Interval: Democrats Could Win 60 Seats In The Senate [video]
Why Florida Could Go Blue In 2020
Confidence Interval: Biden Will Choose Kamala Harris As His VP? [video]
There Have Been 38 Statewide Elections During The Pandemic. Here’s How They Went.
What You Need To Know About Today’s Elections In Kansas, Michigan And Missouri
What You Need To Know About Today’s Elections In Minnesota And Georgia
How To Vote In The 2020 Election [project]
Why We’re Planning For An Election Day That Could Last Months
Will People Actually Watch The Conventions? [liveblog]
What To Watch In Today’s Elections In Alaska, Florida And Wyoming
Democrats Weren’t Sure Who They Are On DNC Night 2
The Democratic Party Wants You To Think It Has 17 Rising Stars [video]
Progressive Groups Are Getting More Selective In Targeting Incumbents. Is It Working?
No Sitting President Was As Far Behind As Trump Going Into The Conventions
If You Wait Until Your State’s Deadline To Mail Your Ballot, You May Be Too Late
Politics Podcast: Cognitive Dissonance On Night 2 Of The RNC
Did Night 2 Of The RNC Violate The Hatch Act? And … Does It Matter? [video]
Almost Everyone Trump Endorses Wins Their Primary … But Is He Padding His Record?
What To Watch For On Night 3 Of The RNC [video]
Biden’s Voters Appear Far More Likely To Vote By Mail Than Trump’s. That Could Make For A Weird Election Night.
Why Minnesota Could Be The Next Midwestern State To Go Red
Today’s Elections In Massachusetts Are Another Big Test For The Progressive Movement
More Women Than Ever Are Running For Office. But Are They Winning Their Primaries?
Ed Markey Won, But It’s Still Been A Rough Year For Incumbents
Election Update: Biden Gets Good Polls In Arizona And Wisconsin — And A Bad One In Pennsylvania
Trump And Biden Both Got Small Convention Bounces. But Only Biden Got More Popular.
Why Pennsylvania Could Decide The 2020 Election
Trump Has Lost His Edge In TV Advertising
What’s The Chance That Trump Loses The Popular Vote But Wins The Election Again? [video]
There’s No Such Thing As The ‘Latino Vote’
Election Update: The Senate Races The Supreme Court Fight May (Or May Not) Affect
Four Senate Races To Watch As The GOP Rushes To Fill RBG’s Seat [video]
Most Americans Want To Wait Until After The Election To Fill The Supreme Court Vacancy
Why Four Pivotal Swing States Likely Won’t Be Called On Election Night
We’ve Had 56 Statewide Elections During The Pandemic. Here’s What We Learned From Them.
How Have People Responded To Other Political Leaders Getting COVID-19?
More States Are Using Ballot Drop Boxes. Why Are They So Controversial?
Our Forecast Thinks Democrats Will Keep The House … And Maybe Even Gain Seats
Biden Got Some Of His Best Polls This Week
Trump’s Bout With COVID-19 Might Be Hurting His Reelection Chances
What Pollsters Have Changed Since 2016 — And What Still Worries Them About 2020
Why Rejected Ballots Could Be A Big Problem In 2020
Wisconsin Was Never A Safe Blue State
Could Democrats Win Full Control Of More State Governments Than Republicans?
Politics Podcast: How Voting Is Going So Far In 2020
States Changed Laws To Make It Easier To Vote In 2020. It’s Resulted In Hundreds Of Lawsuits. [video]
Is Tonight’s Presidential Debate Too Late To Shake Up The Race?
Where The Presidential Race Stands Before The Last Debate
Control Of Redistricting Is Up For Grabs In 2020. Here Are The Races To Watch.
What To Make Of That New Wisconsin Poll That Has Biden Way Ahead
Democrats And Republicans Are Spending Millions On TV Advertising. Will It Even Make A Difference? [video]
When To Expect Election Results In Every State [project]
The 21 Ballot Measures We’re Watching This Election
Both Candidates Might Fall Short Of 270 Electoral Votes On Election Night. But How Close Might They Get?
Exit Polls Can Be Misleading — Especially This Year
Even In The Middle Of A Pandemic, The 2020 Election Has Always Been About Trump [video]
Final Forecast: Democrats Have A 3-In-4 Chance Of Flipping The Senate
Be Wary Of Exit Polls This Year (Well, And All Years) [video]
Take Me Out To The Ballot Box
Politics Podcast: The Election Isn’t Over
Politics Podcast: Biden’s Path To Victory Is Looking Clearer
When Will We Finally Get Results In Unprojected States? [video]
Georgia’s Runoffs Will Determine Control Of The Senate. Here’s What We Know So Far.
What Blue And Red ‘Shifts’ Looked Like In Every State
Republicans Won Almost Every Election Where Redistricting Was At Stake
There Wasn’t That Much Split-Ticket Voting In 2020
Trump Was Never Very Popular, But How Will Americans View Him (And Biden) Now?
What The Polls Say About Georgia’s Senate Runoffs
Where Are Georgia’s Senate Candidates Getting All That Cash From?
Updated: A Record-Breaking Number Of Women Could Be In Biden’s Cabinet
Split-Ticket Voters Are A Small Group, But They Could Decide The Georgia Runoffs
Americans Overwhelmingly Want Congress To Approve Another Coronavirus Stimulus Package
California’s New Senator Will Make History. But Can He Win A Full Term In 2022?
What The Early Vote In Georgia Can — And Can’t — Tell Us
The Case For Republicans In Georgia vs. The Case For Democrats
How Democrats Won The Georgia Runoffs
Trump Helped Take Extremist Views From The Fringes Of Society To A Mob Attacking The Capitol
Biden’s Record-Breaking Cabinet Nominees, In One Chart
Slightly More Americans Are Ready To Impeach Trump This Time Around
Don’t Expect To See Any Players Elected To The Baseball Hall Of Fame This Year
What All Those GOP Retirements Mean For The 2022 Senate Map
How We’re Tracking Joe Biden’s Approval Rating
What Do Americans Think Of Marjorie Taylor Greene? Liz Cheney? Josh Hawley?
What Absentee Voting Looked Like In All 50 States
California’s Gavin Newsom Will Likely Face A Recall Election — But He’ll Probably Survive It
Confidence Interval: Will California Voters Recall Gov. Gavin Newsom? [video]
Politics Podcast: Why Democrats Are Done With Iowa And New Hampshire
Why Some Republicans Voted To Convict Trump And Others Didn’t [video]
Why So Few Absentee Ballots Were Rejected In 2020
Do Americans Think Schools Should Reopen?
Confidence Interval: Republicans Will Win Back Congress In 2022 [video]
All The Ways Georgia Could Make It Harder To Vote
In St. Louis, Voters Will Get To Vote For As Many Candidates As They Want
What Americans Think About The Minimum Wage And Their Governors
4 Ways Andrew Cuomo’s Political Future Could Play Out
New Yorkers Don’t Want Cuomo To Resign Or Run For Reelection
Why Some Senate Democrats Voted Against Raising The Minimum Wage [video]
Sometimes Senators Just Retire. Don’t Read Too Much Into The Recent GOP Exodus.
What To Watch In Louisiana’s Two Special Elections
The Strongest House Candidates In 2020 Were (Mostly) Moderate
The States Where Efforts To Restrict Voting Are Escalating
Politics Podcast: Democrats Are Struggling On Immigration Policy
What We Know About The New Voting Restrictions Many States Are Considering [video]
Politics Podcast: Elections To Watch In 2021
The 2021 Elections That Will Show Us Where The Parties Are Headed [video]
Americans Oppose Many Voting Restrictions — But Not Voter ID Laws
All The Elections To Watch In 2021
It’s Not Just Georgia: More Than A Dozen Other States Are Trying To Take Power Away From Local Election Officials
Congressional Republicans Left Office In Droves Under Trump. Just How Conservative Are Their Replacements?
Advantage, GOP
Biden’s Betting On Public Support To Push His Agenda. Polls Show His Big Spending Packages Have It.
Politics Podcast: Why Democrats Got Shut Out Of A Special Election In Texas
California Voters Should Start Preparing For A Recall Election
Is The Census Wrong? [video]
What Florida’s New Voting Law Signifies About The GOP’s Larger Motivations
Where Republicans Have Made It Harder To Vote (So Far)
If Liz Cheney Doesn’t Have A Home In The GOP, Who Does? [video]
Why Some House Districts Won’t Have A Representative For Almost A Year
How Red Or Blue Is Your State?
The New York Mayoral Election Is No Longer Andrew Yang’s To Lose
Updated: What The New Mexico 1st Special Election Can — And Can’t — Tell Us About 2022
Politics Podcast: One Special Election Can’t Forecast The Midterms
Why It’s So Hard To Poll People About The Death Penalty [video]
The 5 ‘Political Boroughs’ Of New York City
Politics Podcast: What Comes Next For Democrats’ Election Legislation
Why Democrats Are Trying Election Reform Even Though They Don’t Have The Votes [video]
What We Know About New York’s Mayoral Primary Results So Far
Americans Are Worried About Crime, But That Doesn’t Mean They’re Blaming Democrats
The Supreme Court Just Made It Harder To Overturn Voting Restrictions
Politics Podcast: What The Best 2020 Post-Mortem Tells Us About The Electorate
Eric Adams’s Lead In The New York Mayoral Primary Was Just Too Big To Overcome
We Have A Lot Of Data From The 2020 Election. Here’s What It Means For Democratic And Republican Strategies. [video]
How The World Feels About Holding The Tokyo Olympics Amid COVID-19
The Mysterious Case Of 2020’s Polling Error [video]
Gavin Newsom Has Reason To Worry
Everything You Need To Know About Ohio’s Two Special Primary Elections
Will Andrew Cuomo Resign?
Anti-Establishment Sentiment In Both Parties Is On The Ballot This Week [video]
How Voters React To Scandals Like Cuomo’s [video]
Americans Are In Favor Of Vaccine Mandates. But Support Is Driven Mainly By Those Who Have Already Gotten The Jab.
What Redistricting Looks Like In Every State [project]
How To Make Sense Of Our Redistricting Tracker
Why Has Biden’s Approval Rating Fallen? [video]
What Americans Think About The End Of The Afghanistan War And Biden’s Handling Of It So Far
How Eric Adams Won The New York City Mayoral Primary
Where America Lost And Gained Population Could Help Democrats In Redistricting
What Drove 9 Moderate House Democrats To Hold Up Their Party’s Agenda?
The War In Afghanistan Is Officially Ending. Now What? [video]
Texas’s New Law Is The Climax Of A Record-Shattering Year For Voting Restrictions
Just Catching Up On The California Recall Election? Start Here. [video]
Everything You Need To Know About The California Recall Election
What Three Upcoming Elections Can Tell Us About The Political Climate [video]
What The Failed California Recall Does — And Doesn’t — Tell Us [video]
Our Best Tool For Predicting Midterm Elections Doesn’t Show A Republican Wave — But History Is On The GOP’s Side
How Canada Got Here
What California’s Recall Election Can — And Can’t — Tell Us About The 2022 Midterms
Why House Democrats May Be More United Than They Seem
We Polled Members Of Congress … About Baseball
Why Biden’s Approval Rating Isn’t Bouncing Back
Kyrsten Sinema Is Confounding Her Own Party. But … Why?
It Looks Like House Democrats Are Worried About The 2022 Midterms
A Majority Of Republican Voters Actively Want Trump To Run For President Again
Everything You Need To Know About The 2021 Elections
Police Reform Is On The Ballot In Minneapolis. But It’s About More Than Defunding The Police.
Why Virginia’s And New Jersey’s Elections Could Suggest A Red Wave In 2022
Buster Posey’s Career Was Short But Elite. Will It Land Him In The Hall Of Fame?
What ‘The Squad’ Tells Us About Progressives’ Ability To Win Voters Of Color
Redistricting Has Maintained The Status Quo So Far. That’s Good For Republicans.
Why Devin Nunes Is Resigning From Congress
Trump’s 2022 Endorsements Are Earlier, Bolder And More Dangerous Than When He Was President
Americans Like What’s In The Build Back Better Act. They’re Lukewarm On The Bill Itself.
Why The President’s Party Almost Always Has A Bad Midterm
Some Early Clues About How The Midterms Will Go
Why Republicans Take Jan. 6 Less Seriously Than Other Americans
What Might Democrats’ Voting Rights Bill Entail?
Ohio’s Overturned Congressional Map Shows How Lawsuits Might Scramble Redistricting
The Countless, Confusing, Sometimes Contradictory Takeaways Of The 2021-22 Redistricting Cycle
Did Redistricting Commissions Live Up To Their Promise?
David Ortiz Can Start Writing His Hall Of Fame Speech
The 6 House Races Where Incumbents Are Likely To Face Another Incumbent
36 States Are Electing Governors This Year. Here Are 16 That Could Flip.
Why Manchin And Sinema Will Probably Vote For Biden’s Supreme Court Pick
New York’s Proposed Congressional Map Is Heavily Biased Toward Democrats. Will It Pass?
How A Court Ruling In Alabama Could Have Wider Implications For Racial Gerrymandering
Most Primary Polls So Far Are Internal Polls. That’s A Problem.
Democracy Is On The Ballot In These 11 Secretary Of State And Attorney General Elections
New York’s Gerrymander Might Change Which Party Picks Up Seats In The Midterms [video]
We’ve Revamped Our Polling Tracker!
How Will Americans Grade Biden’s Handling Of The Crisis In Ukraine?
Texas May Have The Worst Gerrymander In The Country [video]
Americans Care About The Invasion Of Ukraine — But That Doesn’t Mean They Will Rally Around Biden
Americans Care About The Invasion Of Ukraine — But That Doesn’t Mean They Will Rally Around Biden
What Would It Take For Americans To Support War Against Russia?
How This Redistricting Cycle Failed To Increase Representation For People Of Color — And Could Even Set It Back
Why Early Senate And Governor Polls Have Plenty To Tell Us About November
Democrats Gamble With Their Nevada Gerrymander [video]
The House Map’s Republican Bias Will Plummet In 2022 — Because Of Gerrymandering
How Alabama’s Gerrymander Could Hurt Black Political Power Across The Country [video]
What The MLB Lockout Can Tell Us About Political Fandom And Sports Partisanship
Politics Podcast: Are Both Liz Cheney And Madison Cawthorn In Primary Trouble?
How Redistricting Affects The Battle For State Legislatures
The Culture Wars Couldn’t Stop Ketanji Brown Jackson’s Confirmation
More Than 70 Percent Of Trump’s Endorsees Believe The 2020 Election Was Fraudulent
Trump’s Political Influence Is On The Ballot This Year [video]
The Extreme Bias Of Florida’s New Congressional Map
New York Just Cost Democrats Their Big Redistricting Advantage
What Can Special Elections So Far Tell Us About The 2022 Midterms?
Ohio’s Redistricting Process Has Been a Roller Coaster [video]
The GOP Primary For Ohio Senate Will Be A Test For Trump — But Probably A Win For Trumpism
Races To Watch In The Indiana And Ohio Primaries
Illinois May Be The Worst Democratic Gerrymander In The Country [video]
The West Virginia And Nebraska Primaries Will Be The Latest Test For Trump’s Endorsement
Trump’s Candidate Lost In Nebraska — But Trump Is Still Winning Most Of His Primaries
How Every Senator And Governor Ranks According To ‘Popularity Above Replacement’
16 GOP Primaries To Watch In North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Idaho And Oregon
12 Democratic Primaries To Watch In Kentucky, North Carolina, Pennsylvania And Oregon
11 Primaries To Watch In Alabama, Arkansas, Minnesota And Texas
Support For Gun Control Will Likely Rise After Uvalde. But History Suggests It Will Fade.
The 6 Political Neighborhoods Of Los Angeles
Everything You Need To Know About The Special Election In Alaska
10 Elections To Watch Today
10 Elections To Watch In Nevada, South Carolina And Texas
8 Primaries and Runoffs To Watch In Alabama, Georgia And Virginia
9 Democratic Primaries To Watch In Illinois And New York
21 Republican Primaries And A Special Election To Watch On June 28
Where The Midterms Could Most Affect Abortion Access
What It Would Mean For Elections If The Supreme Court Embraces An Extreme Legal Theory
Ron DeSantis Drew Florida An Extreme Gerrymander [video]
At Least 120 Republican Nominees Deny The Results Of The 2020 Election
The Abortion Vote In Kansas Looks Like It’s Going To Be Close
Why The Gap Between Biden’s Popularity and Democrats’ Polls Isn’t That Weird
The 2022 Congressional Baseball Game Is A Toss-Up
How Far Right Will Republican Primary Voters Go In Arizona And Missouri?
Will 3 Pro-Impeachment House Republicans Survive Tuesday’s Primaries?
3 Republican Primaries — And A Special Election — To Watch In Minnesota And Wisconsin
What You Need To Know About Hawaii’s Primary
Will Cheney And Murkowski Survive Their Trump-Backed Primary Challenges?
Liz Cheney And Lisa Murkowski Could Lose To Election Deniers [video]
New York Is Holding Another Primary. Here’s Everything You Need To Know.
Yes, Special Elections Really Are Signaling A Better-Than-Expected Midterm For Democrats
Trump’s Endorsees Have Started Losing More. But Don’t Read Into That For 2024.
What Democrats’ Win In Alaska Tells Us About November
Why Massachusetts’s Governorship Is The Likeliest To Flip In 2022
Republican Nominees In 40 States Think The 2020 Election Was Stolen. Here’s Why That Matters. [video]
The Last Chance For Election Deniers To Win Primaries [video]
This Candidate Thinks The 2020 Election Was Illegitimate. But He’d Rather You Didn’t Know That.
Wisconsin Polls Look Good For Democrats, But We Need More Of Them
People Of Color Make Up 41 Percent Of The U.S. But Only 28 Percent Of General-Election Candidates
We Fixed An Error In Our Deluxe Midterm Forecast
Progressives Took A Step Back In The 2022 Primaries — But They’re Playing The Long Game
Will Herschel Walker’s Abortion Controversy Hurt His Chances In Georgia?
How Hurricane Ian Could Affect Ron DeSantis’s Political Future
John Fetterman’s Lead In Pennsylvania Is Tightening — And So Are Democrats’ Chances In The Senate
2022 Is Not Another ‘Year Of The Woman’
The Most Important Attorney General And Secretary Of State Races To Watch
Can Democrats Win 52 Senate Seats And Kill The Filibuster?
The 10 Districts Most Likely To Decide Control Of The House
We Watched 100+ Democratic TV Ads So You Don’t Have To [video]
How Have The Georgia Polls Moved Since Herschel Walker’s Abortion Controversy?
We Watched 100+ Republican TV Ads So You Don’t Have To [video]
The Polls Are Getting Better For Republicans
The Most Important Elections Of 2022 Could Be In State Legislatures
All You Need To Know About Georgia’s Senate Race, Through TV Ads [video]
Republicans Are Just A Normal Polling Error Away From A Landslide — Or Wiping Out
All You Need To Know About Wisconsin’s Senate Race, Through TV Ads [video]
All You Need To Know About Pennsylvania’s Senate Race, Through TV Ads [video]
These 28 Ballot Measures Could Affect Abortion Access, Voting Rights And More
Final Forecast: Republicans Are Favored To Win The House
Gubernatorial Races Were A Mixed Bag For Each Party
Why Trump Is Favored To Win The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary
Republicans Won The House — Barely
The Midterms Made State Governments Bluer
If Biden Doesn’t Run In 2024, Who Will? [video]
Did Redistricting Cost Democrats The House?
The Hall Of Fame Math For Barry Bonds And Roger Clemens Doesn’t Add Up
Warnock Has A Small Polling Lead In Georgia — But Walker Could Still Win
The Georgia Runoff Could Be Bad For Trump In 2024 [video]
How Kevin McCarthy Could Lose The Election For Speaker Of The House
Democrats Want To Put Abortion On The Ballot — But Many States Won’t Let Them
140 Million Americans Will Live In States Controlled By Democrats [video]
What I Got Wrong In 2022
What The 20 Republicans Who Voted Against Kevin McCarthy Have In Common
3 Questions We Have About George Santos
Kevin McCarthy’s Job Just Got Harder
DeSantis Is Polling Well Against Trump — As Long As No One Else Runs
One Major Concession From The Speaker Election Isn’t As Major As It Seems
Biden’s Approval Rating Is Up. Will His Misplaced Classified Documents Bring It Down?
What’s The Deal With The Freedom Caucus? [video]
3 Players Could Fall Agonizingly Short Of Baseball Hall Of Fame Election This Year
Who’s Favored To Win The Oscars This Year? [video]
Republicans Didn’t Get Less Popular After All That Speaker Drama — They Were Already Unpopular
Who Americans Usually Blame After Showdowns Over Federal Spending
When One Party Controls State Government [video]
Biden’s Cabinet Members Seem To Really Like Their Jobs
Why Democrats Are Worried About 2024 Senate Elections [video]
Why We’re Preemptively Banning A Pollster — And Not Banning Another
Why We’re Preemptively Banning A Pollster — And Not Banning Another
Why You Shouldn’t Read Too Much Into Democrats’ Good February
Democrats Are Open To Ditching Biden In 2024
Who’s The Team To Beat At The World Baseball Classic?
The Polls Were Historically Accurate In 2022
The Polls Got It Right In 2022. Here Are The Pollsters To Trust. [video]
How Did State Supreme Court Races Get So Expensive?
Which Nation Has The Most Baseball Fans?
Why Is Biden Moving To The Political Center? [video]
Will Voters Care If Trump Gets Indicted? [video]
Which Taylor Swift Album Is The Most Popular?
How Trump’s Indictment Could Affect The 2024 Election
The 4 Political Neighborhoods Of Chicago
The GOP Is Trying To Tilt Montana’s Senate Race In Its Favor. It Probably Won’t Work.
Trump Leads DeSantis In Our New 2024 Republican Primary Polling Average
Ceci N’Est Pas Une Pollapalooza
Why Did A North Carolina Democrat Become A Republican? [video]
Should Democrats Have Picked A Swing State For Their 2024 Convention?
Why It Matters That Trump Is Leading The 2024 Primary Field In Endorsements
Trump Is Racking Up Endorsements In Florida. Should DeSantis Be Worried?
The Real Reason Presidential Candidates Form Exploratory Committees
Does Colin Allred Have What It Takes To Beat Ted Cruz?
The End Of Title 42 Could Be A Big Problem For Biden
What To Watch In Tuesday’s Elections (Yes, There Are Elections)
Which News Outlets Do Americans Trust? [video]
What’s The Deal With The Fight Over The Debt Ceiling? [video]
Why Doug Burgum Could Surprise In The 2024 Republican Primary
Who Is Doug Burgum, The North Dakota Governor Running For President? [video]
Chris Christie Should Have Run For President In 2012
The Supreme Court’s New Ruling Could Help Democrats Flip The House In 2024
Trump’s First Indictment Didn’t Hurt Him Politically. The Second Could Be Different.
What The Polls Say After Trump’s Second Indictment
Who’s A Serious Candidate For The Republican Nomination, And Who’s Just Dreaming?
What The Supreme Court’s New Ruling Does — And Doesn’t — Mean For 2024
Introducing Our Brand-New Polling Averages
How Vivek Ramaswamy Became A Major Presidential Candidate
Alabama’s Proposed Congressional Map Is Still Biased Against Black Voters
What’s The Deal With Long-Shot Presidential Candidates? [video]
16 States Made It Harder To Vote This Year. But 26 Made It Easier.
Is This The Indictment That Really Hurts Trump?
If RFK Jr. Wants To Be President, He’s Running In The Wrong Primary
Everything You Need To Know About The Ohio Ballot Measure That Could Block Abortion Rights
A Special Election In Ohio Shows Voters Still Care About Abortion
What’s The Deal With The GOP Debate Criteria? [video]
We’re Hiring A Temporary Politics Editor/Reporter
After An Eventful Month, Trump Has Lost Support In The GOP Primary
Everything You Need To Know About Tuesday’s Special Elections In Rhode Island And Utah
Politics Podcast: Is Donald Trump The Inevitable GOP Nominee?
Ron DeSantis Probably Didn’t Turn Florida Red
The Senate Is Losing One Of Its Few Remaining Moderate Republicans
Who Won The First Biden-Trump Presidential Debate? [project]