fivethirtyeightindex

Explore 38,593 articles, datasets, podcasts, graphics and illustrations from fivethirtyeight.com

Geoffrey Skelley's 450 bylines

How Crazy Is It That The Senate and House Might Move In Opposite Directions This Year?
Democrats Have A Chance To Win One Of The Reddest Districts In The Country
Young Voters Might Actually Show Up At The Polls This Year
Senate And Governor Races Are Diverging Sharply In Some States
Election Update: What The Polls Say In Four Republican-Leaning Battleground Districts
Governors Update: After Flirting With Trump In 2016, These Three States Are Looking Blue Again
What If Only Men Voted? Only Women? Only Nonwhite Voters?
Is The New Jersey Senate Race Really A Toss-Up? No.
Election Update: New Polls Show Tight Races In 2 Key Obama-Trump Districts
Governors Update: New Polls In Georgia And Ohio Show Really Tight Races
Democrats Can Get Close To A House Majority With Suburban Seats Alone
House Update: Keeping An Eye On Democratic ‘Reach’ Districts
Final Senate Update: The 13 Races We’re Watching
How Republicans Made Gains In The Senate
The Suburbs — All Kinds Of Suburbs — Delivered The House To Democrats
There Was A Lot Of Turnover In The House In The 2018 Cycle
What Does It Mean That Abrams And Gillum Are Both Likely To Lose?
Why Did The House Get Bluer And The Senate Get Redder?
No, Democrats Didn’t Win The Senate. But They Did Better Than It Seems.
Split-Ticket Voting Hit A New Low In 2018 Senate And Governor Races
Mike Espy Needs An Unprecedented Swing To Win The Mississippi Runoff
Which Senators Might Be Vulnerable To A Primary Challenge In 2020?
The 200 Districts That Withstood The Blue Wave — And What They Have In Common
Crossing The Aisle Didn’t Save Republicans This Year
California Dominates Among House Democrats. What Does That Mean For The Next Congress?
It’s Been More Than 30 Years Since The House Reversed An Election Outcome
Martha McSally Will Probably Vote Like McCain In The Senate
The House Will Have Just As Many Moderate Democrats As Progressives Next Year
Biden’s Leading The Iowa Polls, But That Doesn’t Mean Much Yet
Presidential Primary Debates Can Make — And Break — A Campaign
How Julian Castro Could Win The 2020 Democratic Primary
Martha McSally May Run For Senate Twice In Two Years. How Have Others Like Her Fared?
How Much Trouble Could Larry Hogan Cause Trump In A 2020 GOP Primary?
Republicans In Early Primary States Face A Choice: Protect Trump Or Their Place In Line
America Isn’t Really Set Up For Third-Party Presidential Bids
Almost Half Of Voters Are Dead Set Against Voting For Trump
Calls For Northam’s Resignation Reflect White Democrats’ Changing Attitude On Racism
What The State Of The Union Won’t Do
Most Americans Support Warren’s ‘Ultramillionare Tax’
Is Socialism Still An Effective Political Bogeyman?
Would It Be Weird If Biden Didn’t Run?
How To Rate A Trump Challenger
How Jay Inslee Could Win The 2020 Democratic Nomination
We Re-Ordered The Entire Democratic Primary Calendar To Better Represent The Party’s Voters
What Can A Candidate’s Home-State Popularity Tell Us About 2020?
Arizona’s 2020 Senate Race Already Looks Tough For Everyone
What Americans Think Should Matter In College Admissions
What Does Udall’s Retirement Mean For New Mexico’s 2020 Senate Race?
Trump’s Approval Rating Is Incredibly Steady. Is That Weird Or The New Normal?
What More Than 40 Years Of Early Primary Polls Tell Us About 2020: Part 1
Abolishing The Electoral College Used To Be A Bipartisan Position. Not Anymore.
How Early Primary Polls Foreshadowed Surprises Like Obama’s Rise And Trump’s Win
If Stacey Abrams Wants To Run For President, She Probably Shouldn’t Wait Much Longer
Who Might Make The Democratic Debate Stage?
We Analyzed 40 Years Of Primary Polls. Even Early On, They’re Fairly Predictive.
It’s Early, But Colorado’s Cory Gardner Has A Tough Road To Re-Election In 2020
16 Candidates Now Qualify For The First Democratic Primary Debates
Can Democrats Win On Immigration Policy In 2020?
How Michael Bennet Could Win The 2020 Democratic Primary
Some Of Today’s Candidates (Probably) Won’t Make It To Iowa
Who Wants To Be A Senator? Not These High-Profile Democrats.
Here’s How The Democrats Will Limit The Debate Field If Too Many People Qualify
The Buttigieg Bump Is Fading, But He Could Surge Again
How Will Democrats’ Move Away From Caucuses Affect The 2020 Race?
Can A Republican Governor Lose In Kentucky?
How Winning The White House Could Cost Democrats The Senate (At Least Temporarily)
Are Blowout Presidential Elections A Thing Of The Past?
Is Biden’s Bounce Over?
Can Democrats Win The Senate By Adding States? It’s Been Done Before
The Bottom Of The Democratic Field Is Making Moves, Too
Republicans Just Scored A Strong Recruit In The Michigan Senate Race
The First Democratic Debate Deadline Has Passed: Who’s In And Who’s Out
The DNC Tried To Avoid A Lopsided Debate. It Got One Anyway.
How Front-Runners Can Fail
How Roy Moore Could Actually Win Alabama’s Republican Senate Primary
Tiebreakers Could Decide Who Makes The Second Democratic Debates
Politics Podcast: What Happened On Night One Of The First Democratic Debates
Yes, Democrats Are Paying Plenty Of Attention To The 2020 Election
Democrats Found A Major Recruit To Take On Susan Collins in 2020
Have We Seen The Last Of Eric Swalwell?
Why Eric Swalwell’s Campaign Failed
The Democrats Have A Candidate In Kentucky. But Can She Beat Mitch McConnell?
What We’ve Gleaned About The Democratic Primary From 6 Months Of Polls
It Won’t Be Easy For Many Democrats To Make The September Debate
Who’s In And Who’s Out Of The Second Democratic Debate
Which Matchup Will Be The Storyline Of The Second Debate?
How Much Trouble Could Mark Sanford Cause Trump In 2020?
Can Justin Amash Win Reelection As An Independent?
Could Democrats Take The Governor’s Mansion In Mississippi?
Why So Many House Republicans Are Retiring, And Why More Could Be On The Way
Have Pollsters Forgotten That Nevada Is An Early State?
Who Will Make The Third Democratic Debate (And Who Could Miss It)
Why Democrats Might Be Slow To Endorse A Candidate For President This Year
GOP Leaders Really Want Steve King Gone. Could He Lose In 2020?
Democratic Voters Care About Climate Change, But Not Enough To Support Jay Inslee
Politics Podcast: Your Best 2020 Preview May Be The 2019 Elections
Here’s Who’s Qualified For The Third Democratic Debate
What If The Third Debate Were Based On Different Polls?
Democrats’ Most Plugged-In Voting Bloc Seems To Be Coalescing Behind Warren
Who Will Make The Fourth Democratic Debate?
What’s Going On With Trump’s Approval Rating?
Don’t Use General Election Polls To Try To Predict The Primaries
Just How Many Swing Voters Are There?
Who Has — And Hasn’t — Qualified For The October Democratic Debate
What’s Behind Elizabeth Warren’s Rise In The Polls?
Seven Candidates Have Now Qualified For The November Democratic Debate
The Democratic Primary Looks Pretty Different In Each Of The Early States
How Much Do Iowa And New Hampshire Really Matter For 2020?
Tim Ryan Becomes 2020’s Latest Also-Ran
Qualifying For The December Debate Will Be Difficult For Many Democrats
Primary Challenges Might Keep These Republican Senators From Voting To Remove Trump
We’re Checking In On All Those 2020 Senate Races. A Few GOP Incumbents Look Vulnerable.
Why Beto O’Rourke’s Campaign Failed
Democrats Are Outraising Republicans In The Senate
Everything You Need To Know About The 2019 Elections
Democrats Score Election Victories In Virginia And (Probably) Kentucky
Politics Podcast: What The 2019 Election Results Mean
One (Last?) Candidate Qualifies For The November Debate
Jeff Sessions Might Struggle To Win Back His Old Senate Seat
What We Know About Tulsi Gabbard’s Base
Who Has — And Hasn’t — Qualified For The November Democratic Debate
The Louisiana Governor’s Race Looks Really Close
Have The Democratic Debates Moved The Polls At All?
The 2020 Front-Runners Aren’t As Well-Liked As Past Contenders
What We Know About That California Special Election And What It Could Mean For 2020
There Are Now 18 House Republicans Retiring. What Does This Mean For 2020?
Voters’ Second-Choice Candidates Show A Race That Is Still Fluid
Who’s Leading The Democratic Primary In The First Four States?
Why It’s Tougher To Qualify For The December Democratic Debate
Seven Candidates Have Qualified For The December Democratic Debate
What We Know About Andrew Yang’s Base
Mark Meadows Is Now The 21st Republican To Retire From The House
Five Democrats Have Qualified For The January Debate — Who Else Might Make It?
Julián Castro Never Really Found His Base
What Decades Of Primary Polls Tell Us About The 2020 Democratic Presidential Race
Georgia’s Got A New Senator While Other Candidates Are Deciding Whether To Run
Who’s In — Steyer! — And Who’s Out Of The January Debate
Democratic Party Leaders Are Mostly Sitting Out The Endorsement Race So Far
Why Cory Booker’s Campaign Never Really Took Off
What The Heck Is Going On With Tom Steyer’s Poll Numbers?
The Iowa Caucuses Are In 17 Days. What’s Going On In The Early States?
How Much Will The Des Moines Register’s Endorsement Help Warren In Iowa?
Election Update: Sanders Is On The Upswing
Why These Might Be The Most Competitive Iowa Caucuses Ever
Could Sanders Sweep Iowa And New Hampshire?
Election Update: A New Batch Of Iowa Polls Still Shows A Tight Race Between Sanders And Biden
Where Are All The Iowa Polls This Year?
John Delaney Is 2020’s Latest Also-Ran
Election Update: Is Klobuchar Having A Last-Minute Surge In Iowa?
That Last Big Des Moines Register Poll Of Iowa? We’re Not Getting It.
Our Final Forecast For The Iowa Caucuses
7 Candidates Have Qualified For The New Hampshire Democratic Debate
Election Update: What The First Few Post-Iowa Polls Say
Live From Manchester: The Politics Podcast Previews The New Hampshire Primary
Election Update: Our First Big National Poll Shows Just How Unsettled The Race Is
Our Final Forecast For The New Hampshire Primary
What’s Behind Amy Klobuchar’s Surge — And Can It Go National?
Politics Podcast: Sanders Won The New Hampshire Vote. So How Did ‘Klobucharge’ Win The Narrative?
Biden Has Been Losing Black Voters. Will Bloomberg’s Bad Debate Change That?
Our Final Forecast For The Nevada Caucuses
26 Scenarios For What Things Could Look Like After Nevada
Election Update: Biden Holds A Narrow Lead Over Sanders In South Carolina (We Think)
Could Joe Biden Be In Trouble In South Carolina?
What’s Going On In South Carolina?
Super Tuesday Preview: Biden And Sanders Are Vying For First In North Carolina And Virginia
Our Final Forecast For The South Carolina Primary
Super Tuesday Preview: Sanders And Biden Are Duking It Out In Texas
Super Tuesday Preview: Can Anyone Stop Biden In Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee?
Biden Won Super Tuesday Because He Won Voters Who Decided Late
Confidence Interval: The Bloomberg Campaign Isn’t Actually Ending
What We Know About The Voters Who Swung Super Tuesday For Biden
Election Preview: Biden Is A Big Favorite In Missouri And Mississippi, But The Margins Matter
Our Final Forecast For Today’s Primaries
Joe Biden Now Has A Clear Path To Be The Democratic Nominee
What Our Forecast Says About The Race In Illinois And Ohio
What Our Forecast Says About The Race In Florida And Arizona
Our Final Forecast For Arizona, Florida And Illinois Shows A Big Biden Lead
Election Update: Biden’s Delegate Lead Is Now Nearly Insurmountable
This Isn’t The First Time America Has Weathered A Crisis In An Election Year
Can Congress Vote Remotely? Well … Maybe.
How Is Joe Biden Remaking The 2016 Primary Map?
The U.S. Has Held Elections During Times Of Crisis Before. Here’s What Happened.
The Pennsylvania Legislature Is Testing Out Remote Voting. Here’s How It Works.
Is The Economy Still The Most Important Thing For Trump’s Reelection?
11 Governorships Are Up For Grabs In 2020. Here’s What’s Happening.
What Happens If A Presidential Nominee Can No Longer Run For Office?
What Happens If A Nominee Becomes Incapacitated Before The General Election?
Americans Are Largely Unimpressed With Trump’s Handling Of The Coronavirus Pandemic
You Can Pay Attention To Those Trump vs. Biden Polls. But Be Cautious.
Could The Coronavirus And Economic Crash Make Republicans Abandon Trump?
Justin Amash Could Cause Some Trouble In November
The 2020 House Map Looks Good For Democrats, But Republicans Still Have A Shot
Will Justin Amash’s Presidential Run Help Or Hurt Trump?
Democrats Lead The Race For Congress — But The National Environment Will Probably Change
Two Special Elections On Tuesday Could Hint At Another Blue Wave In 2020
Are Older Voters Turning Away From Trump?
Are These Scandals Going To Hurt Republican Chances Of Holding On To The Senate?
The Gap Between Democrats And Republicans Is Growing On The Coronavirus Crisis
Are Arizona, Georgia And Texas Really In Play?
How Much Trump Could Help (Or Harm) Down-Ballot Republicans In November
The Voters Who Don’t Like Trump Or Biden
Nine States (And D.C.) Have Elections Today. Here Are The Races To Watch.
Biden Doesn’t Really Have A Young Voters Problem
How Americans Feel About George Floyd’s Death And The Protests
What The June 2 Primaries Can Tell Us About November
What You Need To Know About Today’s Elections In Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina and West Virginia
Georgia Was A Mess. Here’s What Else We Know About The June 9 Elections.
Trump’s Approval Rating Has Dropped. How Much Does That Matter?
The Latest Swing State Polls Look Good For Biden
Biden Has A Historically Large Lead Over Trump, But It Could Disappear
New Polling Shows Trump’s Electoral College Advantage Is Slipping
The Latest Senate Polls Show Some Good News For Democrats
What You Need To Know About Today’s Elections In Colorado, Oklahoma And Utah
What Went Down In Colorado, Oklahoma And Utah
Why Counting On A Convention Bounce This Year Is Risky
Biden’s Polling Lead Is Big — And Steady
Confidence Interval: Could Trump Win If He Replaces Pence?
What You Need To Know About Today’s Elections In Alabama, Maine And Texas
Americans Increasingly Dislike How Republican Governors Are Handling The Coronavirus Outbreak
Voters Are Starting To Doubt Trump’s Reelection Chances
What You Need To Know About Today’s Elections In Kansas, Michigan And Missouri
Biden Is Polling Better Than Clinton At Her Peak
What To Watch For In Tennessee’s Primary
Trump Wants To Postpone The Election, But Americans Really Don’t
What You Need To Know About Today’s Elections In Minnesota And Georgia
Could Kamala Harris Win The Presidency In 2024? Here’s What History Tells Us.
Biden’s Pledge To Choose A Woman For VP Was Popular — And So Is Harris
What To Watch In Today’s Elections In Alaska, Florida And Wyoming
No Sitting President Was As Far Behind As Trump Going Into The Conventions
What To Watch For On Night 2 Of The RNC
Politics Podcast: Pence Makes A ‘Law And Order’ Appeal On Night 3 Of The RNC
How Did Night 3 Of The RNC Address (Or Not Address) Kenosha And Hurricane Laura?
Today’s Elections In Massachusetts Are Another Big Test For The Progressive Movement
Trump May Have Gotten A Convention Bounce. But It’s Very Slight And May Already Be Fading.
Trump’s Law And Order Message Isn’t Resonating With Most Americans
Election Update: Polls Are Good For Biden Pretty Much Everywhere — Except Florida
What If Trump Loses And Won’t Leave?
Election Update: Where Biden And Trump Have Gained The Most Ground
A Record Number Of Black Americans Could Vote Early This Year
Trump Supporters Aren’t ‘Shy,’ But Polls Could Still Be Missing Some Of Them
Trump Is An Underdog, But The Electoral College’s Republican Tilt Improves His Chances
How Trump’s Tax Returns Could Affect The Election
How Trump Could Spark A Full-Blown Election Crisis
Republicans Are Less Confident Than Democrats That The Election Will Be Conducted Fairly
How Americans Are Reacting To Trump’s COVID-19 Diagnosis
What Pollsters Have Changed Since 2016 — And What Still Worries Them About 2020
What Amy Coney Barrett’s Confirmation Could Mean For Roe v. Wade
Despite A Sexting Scandal, Democrat Cal Cunningham Is Favored In North Carolina’s Senate Race
Trump Is Losing Ground With White Voters But Gaining Among Black And Hispanic Americans
The Most Vulnerable Incumbent In The House Is A Democrat, But Republicans Are Defending More Competitive Seats