fivethirtyeightindex

Explore 21,350 pages from fivethirtyeight.com preserved by the Internet Archive

September 2014

U.S. Women Are Stronger In The Tennis World Than U.S. Men
2014 NFL Preview: The Patriotic AFC East
Florida State’s Scare, And The Worst Opening Weeks For Preseason No. 1s
2014 NFL Preview: The AFC South Can’t Be Any Worse Than It Was Last Year
Randall Munroe Of xkcd Answers Our (Not So Absurd) Questions
How Data Made Me A Believer In New York City’s Restaurant Grades
The Astros Didn’t Play Like A Team Whose Manager Deserved To Be Fired
In The Papers: Recessions, Early Education and Slow GDP Growth
2014 NFL Preview: The AFC North Is Up For Grabs
The Last Finalist For America’s Best Burrito Is Delicious
Alaska’s Bill Walker Is The Independent Who’s Most Likely To Become A Governor
2014 Senate Forecast
FiveThirtyEight’s Senate Model Is Back And It Gives Republicans The Edge
Americans’ Access To Food Can Vary Widely By State
If Tony Survived The ‘Sopranos’ Finale, He’s Probably Alive Today
The Senate Race In Kansas Just Got Crazy
Why Tennis Players Don’t Take More Risks On Second Serves
San Francisco Stalls In Its Attempt To Go Trash-Free
American Kids Will Spend An Average Of 943 Hours In Elementary School This Year
2014 NFL Preview: The Broncos vs. The Hopefuls
What Cats And Dogs Are Swallowing
Measuring NFL Teams’ Pass-Happiness Isn’t As Straightforward As It Seems
Upheaval In The Kansas Senate Race Is Making Our Chart Kinky
Economic Inequality Continued To Rise In The U.S. After The Great Recession
NFL Week 1 Elo Ratings
Introducing NFL Elo Ratings
The 2,128 Native American Mascots People Aren’t Talking About
The Jobs Numbers Were Discouraging, But Don’t Overreact
Fabiano Caruana Is Doing The Impossible At Chess’s Most Competitive Tournament
Don’t Blame Boomers For Unemployed Workers Leaving The Labor Force
As U.S. Tennis Power Fell, Spanish Men And Czech Women Were Rising
Dear Mona, I Pee In The Shower. Am I Normal?
Senate Update: Lots Of New Polls, But Few Surprises
For Years, The Road To Grand Slam Greatness Ran Through Mario Ancic
41 Percent Of Fliers Think You’re Rude If You Recline Your Seat
Ctrl + ← Airline Legroom, The Fourth Down And Bad Umpires
Polls Show Path Of Least Resistance To GOP Majority
Don’t Take Your Vitamins
It’s Not The End Of An Era For Men’s Tennis
Week 1 In The NFL Was Full Of Upsets, But Not Necessarily Surprises
Serena Williams Is Some Kind Of Clutch
In The Papers: Inequality, Long Hours And Gifted Education
Looking For Signs Of Cuomo’s Liberal Problem In New York’s Democratic Primary
Tennis Has A Big Three-And-A-Half
Senate Update: A Fresh Look At The Changed Race In Kansas
Matchmaker, Matchmaker, Make Me A Spreadsheet
How Long Most Parents Wait Between Children
Registered Voter Polls Will (Usually) Overrate Democrats
In The Trenches: The Dolphins’ Pass Rush Overwhelmed The Patriots
We Already Knew That A Majority Of Americans Think Obama Is A Failure
Senate Update: Democrats Get Good News In Michigan, Bad News In The United States
America’s Best Burrito
The High And Low Points For Every NFL Team
What Cuomo’s Re-election Tells Us About His Future
Senate Update: A Push Day On The Polling Front
The Enduring Political Impact Of 9/11 For Those Who Were Closest
Thousands Have Already Cast Their Votes In Scotland’s Independence Referendum
Skeptical Football: Go Go Andrew Luck And A Must-Win For The Pats
Martin Wolf’s Grand Theory Of Global Financial Disorder
NFL Week 2 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds
Senate Update: A Big Swing In North Carolina Improves Democrats’ Chances
‘Rally Around The Flag’ Events Are Rare
The Economic Guide To Picking A College Major
Women Are Majoring In The Lower-Paying STEM Fields
Has Expanded Replay Worked Well In Baseball? Here’s Our Call
South Carolina’s Been Terrible On Defense, And Georgia Is Looming
NFL Owners May Be Overvaluing Goodell
Dear Mona, How Often Should I Change My Socks?
Senate Update: Democrats In Purple States Are Beating The National Mood
A Reminder: FiveThirtyEight Needs You To Party
The 42 Countries That Agree On Islamic State And Little Else
Ctrl + ← Domestic Violence, Google Maps And Tomatoes
Senate Update: Alaska, A Frontier For Bad Polling
After The Midterms, The Diversity Gap In The House Will Be Wider Than Ever
In The Papers: CEOs Gaming Stocks, Soccer Stars And Fertility As Old-Age Security
The Overlooked Career Of Antonio Gates, The Second-Best Tight End Ever
Americans’ Opinions On Spanking Vary By Party, Race, Region And Religion
There She Is … Singing … Again
Senate Update: Democrats Draw Almost Even. Is It The Money?
On Policy, Scotland Is Far From Most of Britain, But Not London
Spotify Knows Me Better Than I Know Myself
Pollsters Shouldn’t Take Mulligans
Five Years Of Recovery Haven’t Boosted The Median Household Income
For Some MLB Playoff Teams, There’s No Place Like Road
Does Playing On Team USA Help NBA Players The Next Season?
How The Eagles Are Winning Matters As Much As Their 2-0 Record
Senate Update: Democrats Take Another Small Step Forward
How The FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast Model Works
NFL Week 3 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds
We Still Don’t Know What $1.6 Trillion Bought Us
The Fed’s Turning Ever More Bearish About Longer-Run Growth
Senate Update: More Races Become More Competitive
A Rough Guide To Watching The Scottish Independence Vote
Why Counts Of Islamic State Fighters Are So Uncertain
Skeptical Football: Goatslingers, Manning vs. Messi, And The Andrew Luck Experiment
Losing Scotland Would Be A Weather Winner For The U.K.
The Royal And Ancient Golf Club Finally Admits Women. Where Else Can They Still Not Go?
Senate Update: Optimistic Numbers For GOP In Colorado And Iowa
Most Of The U.S. Saw Little Recovery In 2013
Beneath The Premier League Stands The Great Football Pyramid Of England
The Scotland Independence Polls Were Pretty Bad
Why Pollsters Think They Underestimated ‘No’ In Scotland
Dear Mona, How Many Adults Take ADHD Drugs?
Scottish Regions’ View On Self-Governance Hasn’t Changed Much Since 1997
Atlanta’s Dismantling Of Tampa Was The Sixth-Most Dominant In NFL History
Senate Update: Democrats Add By Subtraction In Kansas
A Statistical Appreciation Of Li Na
Ctrl + ← Swiss Bankers, Scotland And Stylish People
The American Middle Class Hasn’t Gotten A Raise In 15 Years
The Price Of Seeing Derek Jeter’s Last MLB Game
How A Typical Family In 1988 Is Doing Today
Rob Bironas Just Might Have Been The Best Kicker Of His Era
The Most Important Award In Public Education Struggles To Find Winners
No Matter Which Country Makes A Movie, Women Are The Minority
Senate Update: The Races Most Sensitive To New Polling
The Racial Gap On Global Warming
Revisiting The Greatest Show On Turf
It Has Been An Astonishingly Bad Year For Vehicle Recalls
In The Papers: Entrepreneurs, Energy and Education
Senate Update: Two Different Views Of Alaska
Can Crowdsourcing Tell Us Whether A Burrito Is Any Good?
NFL Week 4 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds
What’s Happened To The Green Bay Packers?
Americans Aren’t Getting Married Anymore
Skeptical Football: Manning Redux, Ancient History And An Award For Tony Romo
Senate Update: A January Runoff In Georgia Is Getting More Likely
Ruth Bader Ginsburg Would Probably Be Confirmed Today
Dear Mona, How Often Do People Arrive Late To Appointments?
We’ll Probably Never Know If The CDC’s Grim Ebola Forecast Was Accurate
How FiveThirtyEight Calculates Pollster Ratings
Why Eric Holder’s Replacement Is Likely To Have A Tough Confirmation
Senate Update: A Troubling Trend For Democrats In Colorado
The A’s Tailspin Might Not Matter Once The Playoffs Start
The Natural Gas Boom Could Accelerate Climate Change
Derek Jeter Isn’t Clutch. He’s Just Good.
Senate Update: I Can See The House Effects In Alaska From Here
An NFL Team Will Probably Win 14 Games. We Just Don’t Know Which Team.
Ctrl + ← Shootings, Beer, Pizza And The Middle East
Have Ray Rice And Roger Goodell Hurt NFL Ratings?
Senate Update: When Should Democrats Panic?
Wal-Mart’s Getting Into Banking, And It Makes A Lot Of Sense
Marriage Isn’t Dead — Yet
MLB’s Biggest Star Is 40 (And He Just Retired). That Could Be A Problem.
Little Change In The Senate, And A Sense Of Déjà Vu In Massachusetts
You Don’t Need 8 Glasses Of Water A Day
Do MLB Preseason Projections Matter In The Playoffs?
How Many People Really Showed Up To The People’s Climate March?
NFL Week 5 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds
Infant Mortality, Post-College Jobs And Chapter 13 Bankruptcy