fivethirtyeightindex

Explore 21,350 pages from fivethirtyeight.com preserved by the Internet Archive

February 2020

That Last Big Des Moines Register Poll Of Iowa? We’re Not Getting It.
What Are The X-Factors That Could Change The Results In Iowa?
Model Talk: What To Expect From The Iowa Caucuses
Novak Djokovic Keeps The Big Three Dominance Alive
What Went Down In Super Bowl LIV
The Chiefs Were On Their Way To A Loss. Then Patrick Mahomes Turned It On.
What Our Forecast Says About The Iowa Caucuses At The District Level
How Iowa’s Three Different Votes Could Affect Who ‘Wins’
Could Virtual Caucuses Ever Work In Iowa?
Are The Iowa Caucuses A Two-Way Race?
Politics Podcast: What To Expect From The Iowa Caucuses
Our Final Forecast For The Iowa Caucuses
89 Different Scenarios For What Things Could Look Like After Iowa
What Did — And Didn’t — Go Down In The Iowa Caucuses
Chaos In Iowa
Will The Impeachment Trial Change Trump’s State Of The Union Address?
Why The State Of The Union Doesn’t Have A Big Political Impact
Iowa Might Have Screwed Up The Whole Nomination Process
Can The Tampa Bay Lightning Shake Off Last Year’s Playoff Debacle?
Politics Podcast: Chaos In Iowa
Iowa Democrats Should Have Known Better Than To Use An App
Damian Lillard Is Out-Currying Steph Curry
Plenty Of Iowans Were Ready To Ditch The Caucuses — Even Before Monday Night
What A 95 Percent Chance To Win The Super Bowl Actually Means
Buttigieg And/Or Sanders Are Going To Win Iowa. What Happens Next?
Bam Adebayo Is The Perfect Center For The Modern NBA
With More Results In, Buttigieg And Sanders Still Lead In Iowa — Biden Still Fourth
Mookie Betts Makes The Dodgers Even More Dominant
What Happens When An Impeached President Runs For Reelection?
Latest From Iowa: Buttigieg Still Leads On Delegates, Sanders On Votes, But It’s Close
Our Post-Iowa Primary Forecast Is Up, And Biden’s Chances Are Down
The Results In Iowa
Politics Podcast: What We Know About The Democratic Primary After Iowa
North Carolina Men’s Basketball Is Off The Rails
Satellite Caucuses Give A Surprise Boost To Sanders In Iowa
How Our New NFL Model Did This Season
7 Candidates Have Qualified For The New Hampshire Democratic Debate
The Biggest Surprises Of The NBA Trade Deadline
Election Update: What The First Few Post-Iowa Polls Say
The Calendar Isn’t Helping Biden, But His Iowa Performance Points To Bigger Problems
New Hampshire Votes In Three Days. Many Voters Could Still Switch Candidates.
You’ll Never Know Which Candidate Is Electable
How Has Everton Turned It Around?
How Many More Palindrome Dates Will You See?
Do Great Regular Seasons Matter Anymore In The NBA? (Asking For A Friend In Milwaukee.)
Election Update: There’s A New Face In Our Forecast. (It’s Bloomberg.)
Election Update: Buttigieg Is Rising In New Hampshire
What Went Down In The New Hampshire Democratic Debate
Live From The New Hampshire Debate
Nevada Democrats Canceled Their Caucus App. But That Poses Its Own Problems.
Election Update: The Polling Picture In New Hampshire Is Actually Pretty Clear
What Are The X-Factors That Could Shake Up New Hampshire?
How Much Do Iowa And New Hampshire Actually Matter?
Live From Manchester: A New Hampshire Preview
Live From Manchester: The Politics Podcast Previews The New Hampshire Primary
Men’s College Basketball Has Been Chaotic. But Just Wait Until The Tourney.
Election Update: Our First Big National Poll Shows Just How Unsettled The Race Is
‘This Is A War’: New Hampshire Voters On The Eve Of The Democratic Primary
What Our Forecast Says About The New Hampshire Primary At The District Level
Ja Morant Looks Like The Next Great Point Guard
The Maple Leafs Are Too Talented To Be Fighting For Their Playoff Lives
Who Are These New Hampshire Voters Deciding Who Should Run Against Trump?
Americans Were Already Primed To Distrust Elections. Then Came Iowa.
Our Final Forecast For The New Hampshire Primary
28 Scenarios For What Things Could Look Like After New Hampshire
Eating Pancakes, Ice Fishing And Getting Tattoos With New Hampshire Voters
Kobe Bryant: On And Off The Court
What Went Down In The New Hampshire Primary
Bernie Sanders Wins New Hampshire
Sanders Is The Front-Runner After New Hampshire, And A Contested Convention Has Become More Likely
How Sanders Held Off Buttigieg And Klobuchar In New Hampshire
Goodbye To Andrew Yang, 2020’s Most Unexpectedly Successful Losing Candidate
The Raptors Weren’t Supposed To Be This Good This Year
Fewer Americans Think Impeachment Will Hurt Trump’s Reelection Chances
Kansas’s Udoka Azubuike Has Found The Formula For Efficiency: Dunk A Lot
What’s Behind Amy Klobuchar’s Surge — And Can It Go National?
Politics Podcast: Sanders Won The New Hampshire Vote. So How Did ‘Klobucharge’ Win The Narrative?
Why Is Warren Struggling?
5 Questions For MLB (That Don’t Involve Sign-Stealing)
You Think We’re Self-Obsessed Now? The 19th Century Would Like A Word
Sabrina Ionescu Has Somehow Gotten Even Better
Democratic Activists Seem Out Of Step With Voters So Far
Can Manchester United — Or Anyone Else — Catch Chelsea For The EPL’s Final Champions League Spot?
Nevada Democrats Say They’ll Replace Their Caucus App With iPads And A Google Form
Could ‘Somewhat Liberal’ Democrats Hold The Key To The Primary?
How Will The Democratic Primary Change Now That It’s Moving To More Diverse States?
Can You Solve This Rather Pedestrian Puzzle?
Can Jack Grealish Save Aston Villa From Relegation?
This Is Jimmie Johnson’s Last Daytona 500. Will NASCAR Finally Appreciate His Greatness?
What Is Amy Klobuchar’s Favorite Statistic?
Model Talk: The Chance Of Chaos Increases
Politics Podcast: Post-New Hampshire, ‘No One’ Is On The Rise
Election Update: The First Polls Since New Hampshire Show No Big Bounces
Does Sanders Have A Ceiling? Maybe. Can He Win Anyway? Yes.
Impeachment Didn’t Change Minds — It Eroded Trust
6 Candidates Have Made The Nevada Debate — Including Bloomberg
Do You Buy That … A Contested Convention Is A Real Possibility?
Without Manchester City (For Now), The Race To Make The Champions League Is Wide Open
The NBA All-Star Game Rules Could Be Even Wilder
Can Bloomberg Win?!
Politics Podcast: Can Michael Bloomberg Win?!
Election Update: Bloomberg’s Super Tuesday Gamble May Be Paying Off
Will The Nevada Debate Be All About Bloomberg?
NHL Coaches Have Been On Thin Ice All Season
What Happens To Your Mail-Order Mattress After You Return It
Baylor Was Known For Its Offense. Now It’s Winning With Defense.
We Fixed An Issue With How Our Primary Forecast Was Calculating Candidates’ Demographic Strengths
Election Update: We Got A Flurry Of New National Polls. Sanders Led Them All.
What Went Down At The Nevada Democratic Debate
Bloomberg Stumbles In Chaotic Debate
Sanders Has An Edge Among Latino Voters In Nevada. Will It Hold?
What We’re Excited About For The NBA’s Stretch Run
Politics Podcast: Just How Bad Was That Debate For Bloomberg?
BYU Is Scorching The Nets From Even Farther Back
Biden Has Been Losing Black Voters. Will Bloomberg’s Bad Debate Change That?
The Debate Exposed Bloomberg’s Downside — But It Was There All Along
Is Nevada More Wide-Open Than We Realize?
Increased Voter Turnout Could Benefit Republicans Or Democrats In 2020
How Jayson Tatum Changed His Game And Became A Star
Can You Flip Your Way To Victory?
How Nevada’s Three Sets Of Results Could Affect Who ‘Wins’
What Makes Nevada Voters Unique?
Our Final Forecast For The Nevada Caucuses
26 Scenarios For What Things Could Look Like After Nevada
What Our Forecast Says About The Nevada Caucuses At The District Level
What Went Down In The 2020 Nevada Caucuses
Bernie Sanders Wins Nevada — Putting Him In The Driver’s Seat To Win The Nomination
Bernie Sanders Is The Front-Runner
Sanders Wins Big In Nevada
The Astros’ Scandal Isn’t Going Away. Neither Are The Astros.
Politics Podcast: What Sanders’s Big Nevada Win Means For The Rest Of The Race
With 7 Candidates Debating In South Carolina, The Stage Is, Umm, Getting Larger ?
The Indefatigable Stella Johnson Is WNBA-Ready
Tech Was Supposed To Improve Caucuses. Instead, It May Have Doomed Them.
Will The South Carolina Debate Be All About Stopping Sanders?
The Best Dayton Men’s Basketball Team Ever Is Also The Most Dunkalicious
Election Update: Biden Holds A Narrow Lead Over Sanders In South Carolina (We Think)
Who Won The South Carolina Democratic Debate?
Confidence Interval: “I Think The Biden Campaign Is Doing Just Fine”
Why The Establishment Can’t Bank On ‘Moderate’ Voters Consolidating Against Sanders
Ovechkin vs. Gretzky — Is It Even A Contest?
What Went Down At The South Carolina Democratic Debate
What Went Down In The South Carolina Debate
What Defines The Sanders Coalition?
You Don’t Need The NBA Draft For Talent. Just Ask The Raptors.
How Rep. James Clyburn Settled On Endorsing Biden
Politics Podcast: Biden Fights For A Win In The South Carolina Debate
Why South Carolina’s James Clyburn Is Endorsing Biden
Election Update: What Our Forecast Says About Every Super Tuesday State
Why So Many Black Voters Are Democrats, Even When They Aren’t Liberal
What The Race Looks Like If Biden Wins — Or Wins Big, Or Loses — In South Carolina
Could Joe Biden Be In Trouble In South Carolina?
Real Madrid Is Sorta Screwed
Few Teams Have Ever Defended Like These Milwaukee Bucks
Bloomberg’s Rise — And Stall — Tells Us A Lot About Democrats And PC Culture
Election Update: Biden Surges In South Carolina
Why Younger Democrats Are Overwhelmingly Rejecting Biden
What’s Going On In South Carolina?
Can You Get A Haircut Already?
Black South Carolinians To Candidates: Quit Pandering
Quarantines Won’t Save Us From Coronavirus
What Our Forecast Says In Massachusetts, Maine And Vermont
Who Are Asian Americans Supporting In California?
Rutgers’ Home Court Is A House Of Horrors In A Conference Full Of Them
Super Tuesday Preview: Biden And Sanders Are Vying For First In North Carolina And Virginia
South Carolina Could Be Just One More Step Toward A Contested Convention
Voters Who’ll Support Biden — But Not Sanders — Probably Really Do Mean It
Our Final Forecast For The South Carolina Primary
What Our Forecast Says About The South Carolina Primary At The District Level
Black Churches Open Their Doors To Candidates, But What Do They Get In Return?
What Went Down At The South Carolina Primary