fivethirtyeightindex

Explore 21,350 pages from fivethirtyeight.com preserved by the Internet Archive

September 2016

What Starlight Teaches Us About Space (Pretty Much Everything)
Significant Digits for Thursday, Sept. 1
Election Update: As The Race Tightens, Don’t Assume The Electoral College Will Save Clinton
The Ultimate Guide To Weddings: Who Should Pay? And What About Plus-Ones?
Teddy Bridgewater’s Injury Puts The Vikings Back In QB Hell
The Consequences: A Look Behind The Claims On Immigration
13 Tips For Reading General Election Polls Like A Pro
How Many Bananas Does It Take To Lead A Camel To Market?
Significant Digits For Friday, Sept. 2, 2016
The Ultimate Guide To How Much To Spend On Wedding Gifts
Trump and Clinton Can Both Spin The Latest Jobs Report
Internet Tracking Has Moved Beyond Cookies
How The MLB Standings Would Look If Teams Stuck With Whoever They Drafted
We Haven’t Seen Many Storms Like Hermine
Despite What Trump Tweets, FiveThirtyEight Isn’t A Pollster
This Election Is Testing The Republican Loyalties Of Military Voters
Why It’s So Hard To Find The Next Earth, Even If You’re Looking Right At It
2016 Election Forecast - Analysis
Significant Digits For Tuesday, Sept. 6, 2016
Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Keeps Shrinking
Three Out Of Four Media People Covering The U.S. Open Are Men
How The Media Have Covered The 2016 Campaign
Trump May Bring A Republican Recalibration, Not A Realignment
Significant Digits For Wednesday, Sept. 7, 2016
2016 NFL Predictions
Beware, Broncos Fans: Defensive Dynasties Don’t Last Long
The Panthers Are Alone Atop The NFC South
The More ‘Normal’ Trump Can Make This Race, The Better His Chances
Can Anyone In The AFC East Challenge The Patriots (For Once)?
Men Outnumbered Women 2-To-1 In 2015 Movies. What Gives?
Election Update: Trump’s Best Chance To Win In Obama Territory Is In Maine
Don’t Blame A ‘Skills Gap’ For Lack Of Hiring In Manufacturing
Significant Digits For Thursday, Sept. 8, 2016
The Broncos — And The Panthers — Have History On Their Side Thursday Night
The Seahawks Are The NFC’s Best Team, But They Can’t Shake The Cardinals
Why Is Trump Gaining On Clinton?
The Rams Are Dead To Me, So I Answered 3,352 Questions To Find A New NFL Team
The AFC South May Get Good Again — But Not This Year
Election Update: The Swing States Are Tightening, Too
The Faceless Men And Women Of The U.S. Open
Black Voters Are So Loyal That Their Issues Get Ignored
Who Keeps The Money You Found On The Floor?
Significant Digits For Friday, Sept. 9, 2016
How The Oil And Gas Industry Awakened Oklahoma’s Sleeping Fault Lines
The NFC East Will Be An Ugly, Magnificent Bloodbath, As Usual
Can The Vikings Surprise The Packers Again?
Is A 50-State Poll As Good As 50 State Polls?
Serena Williams Only Loses In Big Upsets Because She’s Always A Big Favorite
What Makes A Tipping-Point State
Anyone Could Win The AFC North — Except The Browns
The Broncos And Chiefs Are Still Running The AFC West
St. Louis Is The New Startup Frontier
Young Millennials Love Obama, But Clinton Is Struggling To Win Them Over
Significant Digits For Monday, Sept. 12, 2016
One In Six Eligible Voters Has A Disability
Polls Show Trump’s Momentum Has Stalled — For Now
The NFL’s Week 1 Games Have Never Been So Close
Wait — Why Shouldn’t The Raiders Have Gone For 2?
In Tennis, Even The Breakout Stars Are Veterans
Putting Hillary Clinton’s Basket Of Deplorables In Context
Trump’s Blue Collar Base Wants More Jobs And An America Like The Past
Significant Digits For Tuesday, Sept. 13, 2016
Fancy Dorms Aren’t The Main Reason Tuition Is Skyrocketing
Don’t Panic, But There’s An Asteroid Right Over There
Election Update: Where Polls And Demographics Disagree
The Recovery Finally Reached Most Americans In 2015
Can A Candidate Be Too Old To Run For President?
How Many Of Trump’s Supporters Really Are ‘Deplorable’?
Significant Digits For Wednesday, Sept. 14, 2016
Why The Red Sox Are So Likely To Win The AL East
Sunlight And An Internal Switch Dictate When We Sleep
Baseball Managers Are Getting Smarter About Handling Their Bullpens
What’s The Most Iconic TV Show In Emmys History?
Election Update: Has Clinton’s ‘Bad Weekend’ Moved The Polls?
How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote
Significant Digits For Thursday, Sept. 15, 2016
The Strongest Emmy Categories Of All Time
The Seattle Mariners Can’t Catch A Postseason Break
How We Undercounted Evictions By Asking The Wrong Questions
Independent Voters Are Overrated
Where Bills-Jets Ranks Among The NFL’s Worst Division Rivalries
Crunch Time Of The NFL Season Is Right Now
Why So Many Poor Americans Don’t Get Help Paying For Housing
Why We Don’t Know If It Will Be Sunny Next Month But We Know It’ll Be Hot All Year
How High Can Count Von Count Count?
Significant Digits For Friday, Sept. 16, 2016
The TV Stars Who Were Only Great In One Role
When Does Praying In Public Make Others Uncomfortable?
Why Clinton’s Electoral Map Isn’t As Good As Obama’s
The Secret To Tracking And Mapping Bears
The Chiefs And Texans Are More Than AFC Afterthoughts
Election Update: Democrats Should Panic … If The Polls Still Look Like This In A Week
Julia Louis-Dreyfus Is Unstoppable
Don’t Believe Trump’s Tax Math — Or Anyone Else’s
Significant Digits For Monday, Sept. 19, 2016
Trump’s Appeal To Rural Voters May Win Him An Electoral Vote In Maine
Even Down Two QBs, The Patriots Are Playing With House Money
Week 2 In The NFL Isn’t Nearly As Fluky As Week 1
Election Update: The Top ‘Must-Win’ States For Trump And Clinton
Cellphone Emergency Alerts Are Outdated
Voters Turn To Trusted Authorities After Terrorist Attacks
Unlike Their Parents, Black Millennials Aren’t A Lock For Clinton
2016 Senate Forecast
2016 Senate Forecast — Senate Generic Ballot
Colorado | 2016 Senate Forecast
Florida | 2016 Senate Forecast
Illinois | 2016 Senate Forecast
Indiana | 2016 Senate Forecast
Kentucky | 2016 Senate Forecast
Louisiana | 2016 Senate Forecast
Missouri | 2016 Senate Forecast
Nevada | 2016 Senate Forecast
New Hampshire | 2016 Senate Forecast
New York | 2016 Senate Forecast
North Carolina | 2016 Senate Forecast
South Carolina | 2016 Senate Forecast
Wisconsin | 2016 Senate Forecast
Significant Digits For Tuesday, Sept. 20, 2016
Our Live Elections Podcast Previews The First Debate
What The Heck Does ‘Winning’ A Debate Even Mean?
The Reds’ Pitching Might Be The Worst Of All Time
Significant Digits For Wednesday, Sept. 21, 2016
The Seahawks Can’t Run, Block Or Score
The Science Of Trump: Energy, Space And Military Tech
The GOP’s Jewish Donors Are Abandoning Trump
Baseball’s Savviest (And Crappiest!) Bullpen Managers
Obamacare Has Increased Insurance Coverage Everywhere
Significant Digits For Thursday, Sept. 22, 2016
Election Update: Reports Of A Clinton Rebound Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
Senate Forecast: The Map Favors Democrats, Ever So Slightly
There’s A 10 Percent Chance Of A Three-Way MLB Wild-Card Tie
It Only Takes Six Seconds To Hear The World’s Most Sampled Song
Clinton’s Leading In Exactly The States She Needs To Win
Religion And Education Explain The White Vote
Significant Digits For Friday, Sept. 23, 2016
How Big A Table Can The Carpenter Build?
When Does A Presidential Candidate’s Mental Health Matter?
The Four Types Of Denzel Washington Movies
The Science Of Clinton: Education, Advanced Manufacturing And More Money For Research
The Key States In The Contest For Senate Control
What’s Wrong With Aaron Rodgers?
Election Update: The Case For And Against Democratic Panic
Baseball Lost A Potential All-Timer In José Fernández
Election Update: Where The Race Stands Heading Into The First Debate
The Income Gap Began To Narrow Under Obama
First Debates Usually Go To The Challenger
Significant Digits For Monday, Sept. 26, 2016
Your Final Debate Briefing Book: The Policies
Your Final Debate Briefing Book: The Politics
Only Jack And Tiger Were Better Than Arnold Palmer At His Best
What’s At Stake For Both Candidates In Tonight’s Debate
Murders Rose At Their Fastest Pace In A Quarter-Century Last Year
The Vikings And Ravens Are In For A Rude Awakening
Election Update: Polls Show A Close Race (So Our Model Does Too)
What Went Down In The First Presidential Debate
Clinton Won The Debate, Which Means She’s Likely To Gain In The Polls
Evangelicals, Once Skeptical Of Trump, Have Rallied To His Side
Significant Digits For Tuesday, Sept. 27, 2016
Trump And Clinton Sounded As If They Were Talking About Two Different Countries
Baseball Was Way Easier To Predict In 2016 — Except For Fly Balls
Video: FiveThirtyEight’s Politics Crew Analyzes The Debate
What Could The Polls Be Missing?
Significant Digits For Wednesday, Sept. 28, 2016
Consumers Are Feeling Better About The Economy Than Polls Suggest
Les Miles Wasn’t A Great Coach, But He Was A Great Recruiter
Senate Update: Races For The Senate And White House Are Moving In Near Lockstep
Trump Says Profiling Has Protected Israel. It Probably Wouldn’t Work Here.
The Voters: Who Is Leaning Republican?
Election Update: Early Polls Suggest A Post-Debate Bounce For Clinton
Some Like It Bot
Significant Digits For Thursday, Sept. 29, 2016
‘Missing’ White Voters Could Elect Trump. But First They Need To Register.
Election Update: Even A Small Post-Debate Bounce Could Make A Big Difference For Clinton
Wanted: Mars Explorers. Must Be Able To Tolerate Boredom And Play Nice With Others.
Significant Digits For Friday, Sept. 30, 2016
Cubs World Series Puzzles, For Fun And Profit
Bobby Bonilla Was More Than The Patron Saint Of Bad Contracts
The Bobby Bonilla Retirement Plan: Quit Baseball In 2001, Get Paid Until 2035
Ricky Williams’s Awful NFL Contract Never Gave Him A Chance
How Ricky Williams’s Infamous Contract Got Made
Trump Is More Unpopular Than Clinton Is — And That Matters
Why The Eagles’ Surprising Start Might — And Might Not — Hold Up
Election Update: Clinton’s Debate Performance Is Helping Her In Swing States
The Four Types Of Mark Wahlberg Movies