fivethirtyeightindex

Explore 21,350 pages from fivethirtyeight.com preserved by the Internet Archive

April 2014

Breaking Down ESPN’s First MLB Season Forecast
A Gaffe Can Matter When It Motivates the Base
A National Drilling Boom, But a Two-State Oil Boom
Poll Shows Record Obamacare Support, But That Doesn’t Mean Much
The Dollar-And-Cents Case Against Hollywood’s Exclusion of Women
Which MLB Teams Overperform in Popularity?
Are NBA Steals Born of Bad Defense?
An Unusual Accounting Move in Paul Ryan’s Budget
The Murky State of E-Cigarette Research
Rich Suburbs Can’t Save Democrats This November
What to Expect From DeSean Jackson in Washington
A Few Data Points on the Supreme Court’s Donor-Limit Decision
The Top-Grossing, Bechdel Test-Passing Movies
Why the Trix Rabbit Looks Down on You
The Distribution of Fandom in Pro Leagues
Four Strikes And You’re Out
The Gender Balance in Tech, in New York And Beyond
Has Mike Trout Already Peaked?
El Niño Probably Won’t Quench California’s Thirst
Consensus And Discord in Predicting the 2014 MLB Season
Wait, the 76ers Get a Ton of Steals, And They Stink
It’s Easier to Get Assists in Huntsville, Texas, Than Anywhere Else
The ‘Big Five’ in North American Pro Sports
Jobs Report: Back to Where We Started
A Look at Journalists Killed, by Country
Potential Growth, And a Debate Over Why the U.S. Is Lagging
Baseball’s Best Farm Systems: How Much Do They Matter?
How Rare Are Anti-Gay-Marriage Donations in Silicon Valley?
Labor Secretary: Long-term Unemployment Keeps Me up at Night
Senate Races in 2014 Lack (Good) Polling
The People Pushing the NHL Into the Advanced Stats Era
The Historic Rarity of a Double Bracket-Busting NCAA Championship Game
Inflation May Hit the Poor Hardest
Kentucky Injury Makes NCAA Basketball Championship a True Toss-Up
Some MLB Teams Will Rise, Some Will Fall (But You Shouldn’t Predict Either)
College Basketball’s Problem Isn’t Endless Nail-Biters — It’s Long Blowouts
The GOP Senator Most Likely to Falter in the Primary Season
Steals Are Predictive, But Are They That Important?
Should U.S. Soccer Have Fired Tom Sermanni?
Where Sabermetrics And the ‘Eye Test’ Disagree
UConn’s Not-So-Secret Weapon
The Women’s NCAA Final Is Unlike Anything In the History of Major American Sports
Answering Questions About Inflation Inequality
Oscar Pistorius Trial Puts a Spotlight on Crime in South Africa
The Odds of Finding a Job Have Improved
John Calipari Has Seen a Lot of Bricks at the Free-Throw Line
Low-Income Adults in States Without Expanded Medicaid Have More Health Problems
The Toolsiest Player of Them All
The Bechdel Test: Checking Our Work
Some Data For Equal Pay Day
At Augusta, Hitting Short Drives and Losing Is a Tradition Unlike Any Other
In the End, People May Really Just Want to Date Themselves
Low Inflation as Far as the Eye Can See
The Best College Basketball Program of All Time
The Incomplete Picture on Weapons Used in School Homicides
Gender Pay Gap Tracks With Number of Women in State Legislatures
If Hank Aaron Had Never Hit a Home Run, Would He Be a Hall of Famer?
Are Mammograms Worth It?
Can All of New York Go Out to Eat on the Same Day?
The Stats Guys vs. Basketball Guys Rivalry Is Overblown
There Isn’t a Secret Majority Supporting Obamacare
Why We’re Meh About the Falling Layoffs
Jeb Bush Has as Good a Shot as Anybody
Why Colbert Makes Sense For ‘Late Show’
Stephen Colbert Is Popular on the Internet
How to Predict MLB Records From Early Results
Bike Lanes Don’t Cause Traffic Jams If You’re Smart About Where You Build Them
The Pubic Hair Preferences of the American Woman
Even After the First Round, We Won’t Know Much About Who Will Win the Masters
Where Are America’s Librarians?
Both the Heat and the Pacers Have Time to Rebound
Jeb Bush’s Stance on Education May Not Be That Controversial
Vance McAllister’s Days in Congress Are Probably Numbered
Like Bush, Many Republicans Are Moderate on Immigration
There’s Income Inequality in Golf, Too
What If An Evil Commissioner Turned Hank Aaron’s Homers Into Singles?
Sam Houston State’s Scorer: ‘We Reward Good Team Play’
A Statistical Analysis of the Work of Bob Ross
A Q&A With the Steward of Bob Ross
Bubba Watson’s Masters Performance Was Better Than You Think
Losing Benefits Isn’t Prodding Unemployed Back to Work
Where Atari’s ‘E.T.’ Ranks Among Video Game Flops
A GIF-Guided Tour of Remixed FiveThirtyEight Data
U.S. Tax Rates: The Big Picture
The Anarchy And Evolution of Thousands Playing ‘Pokémon’
Tornado Season Is Off to a Slow Start, But There’s No Predicting What’s Next
Do Pulitzers Help Newspapers Keep Readers?
Just How Bad Were the ‘Bad Boys’?
The Fluctuating Math Errors in Americans’ Tax Returns
How Partisan Are Partisan Senate Polls?
A Hot Goalie Isn’t a Better Goalie
It’s All About the Strike Zone
When April Snow Showers Blanket Spring Flowers
Beards Are Less Attractive When They’re Everywhere
Kansas Has Moved on From Kathleen Sebelius
Advanced Stats Love Jackie Robinson
Time to Shave? Not So Fast
Businesses Are Better Than Consumers at Predicting Inflation
Early Senate Polls Have Plenty to Tell Us About November
The Biggest Predictor of How Long You’ll Be Unemployed Is When You Lose Your Job
How Violence Against Women in the U.K. Compares to Stats Across the World
Timing Matters When Losing Your Job (And Timing Was Very Bad in 2009)
Where Is Ukraine’s Next Crimea?
Where People Feel Safe, And Where They Are Safe
What Arizona’s Rough Start Says About MLB (and the NFL and NBA)
2064: The Technology of the Future (Will We Still Be Waiting For Our Jetpacks?)
Why a Plan to Circumvent the Electoral College Is Probably Doomed
The Most Popular Day of the Week For Buying Weed
I Don’t Care If I Ever Get Back — And I Might Not
Trix Strikes Back
What Would’ve Happened If Nobody Had Gotten Hurt in the NBA This Year
Pace Is the Most Consistent Pitching Stat
The California Comeback
What to Expect From Michael Phelps If He Swims in Rio de Janeiro
Djokovic Makes a Run at No. 1
Fly Early, Arrive On-Time
When To Hold Out For A Lower Airfare
The Potential Bubble the Federal Reserve Cares Most About
Are Pro Wrestlers Dying at an Unusual Rate?
Democrats Shouldn’t Count on an Electoral College Edge in 2016
How Much Do State Jobless Rates Differ?
Kings’ Disappointing Playoff Run Surprises Advanced Stats
Happy Bob Ross Visualizations
Which Cities Sleep In, And Which Get To Work Early
Partisan Loyalty Begins at Age 18
In the NBA, It’s Not Whether You Win or Lose, It’s Whether You Beat Vegas
All the Presidents’ Grandchildren
Mike Trout And Bryce Harper Are Baseball’s Best Young Position-Player Duo Ever
One Metric by Which the NBA Is More Popular Than the NFL
The Odds of Getting on a Domestic Partner’s Health Plan
More High School Grads Decide College Isn’t Worth It
Under Moyes, Manchester United Wasn’t Particularly Good — Or Lucky
Do April Showers Bring May Flowers?
Some Fouls Are So Bad They’re Good
Stop Betting Against Gregg Popovich
Elizabeth Warren Wouldn’t Be 2016’s Obama, But She Could Be Its John Edwards
A 14-Team NFL Playoff Wouldn’t Bring More Parity
Where the U.S. Gets Its Clothing, One Year After the Bangladesh Factory Collapse
How to Measure Traffic Congestion
Are Older Men’s Sperm Really Any Worse?
Is the DH Rule Slowing the Game Down?
Flight Delayed? Your Pilot Really Can Make Up the Time in the Air
Comparing the WWF’s Death Rate to the NFL’s And Other Pro Leagues’
Which NFL Teams Really Have the Toughest And Easiest Schedules in 2014?
Baby’s First Profanity
Women’s Hips, And the Scientists Who Love Them
To Find a Career Like Tim Duncan’s, We Have to Go Back to Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Americans Have Fewer Credit Cards And Less Debt
Economic ‘Uncertainty’ Is Trending Down
Florida Set to Join Trend Toward Higher Speed Limits
What’s The Best Way To Build a Major League Baseball Team?
Credit Ratings And Violence
The Most Disciplined MLB Batters
Suddenly, Anyone Can Beat Rafael Nadal on Clay
Baseball Is Finally Remembering How Good Albert Pujols Can Be
When the Saints Come Marching In
Here’s Every Client Don Draper Ever Had
Inequality in College Towns
Looking at Unemployment From a Family Perspective
Mark Buehrle Is a One-Man Baseball-Game Accelerator
Both Republicans And Democrats Have an Age Problem
In the Papers: Research That May Change How We Think About Economics
To Gauge Americans’ Interest in the World Cup, Ask Some People in Spanish
Three Leagues, 92 Teams And One Black Principal Owner
Why LA Is Still a Lakers Town
How Good Has the Yankees’ Masahiro Tanaka Been?
Indictment May Make Michael Grimm an Underdog, But He’s Not a Goner
Medical Marijuana is Still the Best Deal on Pot in Colorado
Give Us a Straight Answer, America: How Do You Really Feel About Soccer?
Which States Are in the Midwest?
Intentionally Fouling DeAndre Jordan Is Futile
Condom Use, And Condom Confiscation
For Verizon FiOS Customers, Netflix Streaming Is About to Get Speedier
The Clippers, Like Many NBA Teams, Have a Majority-Minority Fan Base
A Mostly Unknown Pitcher May Be Among Baseball’s Best
Americans’ Growing Love of Limes
Race Gap Narrows in College Enrollment, But Not in Graduation
GOP Establishment Looks Set to Win a Bunch of Senate Primaries
Which States Are in the South?
A Bad GDP Number, But There’s Some Hope Ahead
How Often Are Executions Botched?
Even the Head Chef of the World’s Best Restaurant Doubts There’s a World’s Best Restaurant
‘Fetch’ Is Finally Happening 10 Years After ‘Mean Girls’
Are White Republicans More Racist Than White Democrats?
Some Tequila With That Lime?
We’ve Published Our Data on the South And Midwest