fivethirtyeightindex

Explore 21,350 pages from fivethirtyeight.com preserved by the Internet Archive

January 2016

2016 Will Be (Another) Test Of The Economic Recovery
To Win In Iowa Or New Hampshire, It May Be Better To Poll Worse Nationally
Significant Digits for Monday, Jan. 4, 2016
The Armed Oregon Ranchers Who Want Free Land Are Already Getting A 93 Percent Discount
Mike Piazza Was More Than A Big Bat
Is Pre-K All It’s Cracked Up To Be?
Significant Digits for Tuesday, Jan. 5, 2016
Most Americans Agree With Obama That More Gun Buyers Should Get Background Checks
One Reason Hillary Clinton Might Underperform In The Early States
We’re Hiring A Copy Chief
These Are The Best Wild-Card Road Teams In Modern History
The End Of YA Novel Adaptations — And 4 Other Pop Culture Predictions For 2016
Baseball’s Hall Of Fame Is Stuck In The ’60s
Millennials Are Not Ruining The NBA
You Can’t Trust What You Read About Nutrition
Is The GOP Establishment Blowing Its Anti-Trump Campaign?
Significant Digits for Wednesday, Jan. 6, 2016
Ted Cruz Is Placing The Biggest Bet On The South
Griffey In His Prime Was The Second Coming Of Willie Mays
Barry Bonds Wasn’t Half Bad, Either
It’s Harder Than It Looks To Link Inequality With Global Turmoil
Significant Digits for Thursday, Jan. 7, 2016
Trump Supporters Appear To Be Misinformed, Not Uninformed
Can You Taste The Algorithm In This Arugula?
How MSG Got A Bad Rap: Flawed Science And Xenophobia
How To Make Sense Of Conflicting, Confusing And Misleading Crime Statistics
How Badly Can A Car Salesman Swindle You?
Significant Digits for Friday, Jan. 8, 2016
Job Growth Was Great In December, But Can It Last?
It Took 20 Years For The Government To Pay For An Obvious Way To Prevent HIV
Three Theories Of Donald Trump’s Rise
The $800 Million Powerball Jackpot Is A Stat Nerd Dream Come True
Why Alabama Is Terrible On Third Down
There’s One Thing Worse For The GOP Than A Trump Nomination
Significant Digits for Monday, Jan. 11, 2016
After Wild-Card Weekend, There Is No Super Bowl Favorite
The FiveThirtyEight Team Goes To Iowa
The Biggest Dinosaur In History May Never Have Existed
#WheresRey? The ‘Star Wars’ Heroine Is Featured In Fewer Toys Than All The New Dudes
The Biggest Surprises Of Wild-Card Weekend
Significant Digits for Tuesday, Jan. 12, 2016
Calif. Democratic Primary Forecasts
Conn. Democratic Primary Forecasts
Fla. Republican Primary Forecasts
Ga. Democratic Primary Forecasts
Ind. Democratic Primary Forecasts
Iowa Republican Caucus Forecasts
La. Democratic Primary Forecasts
Md. Republican Primary Forecasts
Mich. Republican Primary Forecasts
Miss. Democratic Primary Forecasts
Mo. Democratic Primary Forecasts
Okla. Democratic Primary Forecasts
Pa. Republican Primary Forecasts
S.C. Democratic Primary Forecasts
W.Va. Democratic Primary Forecasts
How We’re Forecasting The Primaries*
Who’s Winning Iowa And New Hampshire?
Everyone Is Freaking Out About The $1.5 Billion Powerball, And The Stats Agree
Is Alex Ovechkin Better Than Wayne Gretzky?
Significant Digits for Wednesday, Jan. 13, 2016
The Glass-Half-Empty Case Against Ted Cruz
The Haters Are Losing The War On Kickers
An Algorithm Could Know You Have A Genetic Disease Before You Do
Why Isn’t Anyone Talking About The Deficit Anymore?
Significant Digits for Thursday, Jan. 14, 2016
The Biggest Oscar Snub Goes To …
The Most-Edited Wikipedia Pages Over The Last 15 Years
Sabermetrics Is Killing Bad Dugout Decisions
A History Of Data In American Politics (Part 1): William Jennings Bryan To Barack Obama
Pop Culture Looks Like David Bowie
What Went Down In The Fox Business Undercard Republican Debate
What Went Down In The Sixth GOP Debate
The GOP Primary, In One Debate
Are We Headed For Another Recession?
Will The Neurotic Basketball Player Make His Next Free Throw?
Significant Digits for Friday, Jan. 15, 2016
Kyle Lowry Could Make Toronto An NBA Finals Dark Horse
Why Some GOP Candidates Aren’t Taking The Fight To Trump
The Rams Won’t Get As Much From LA As The Lakers And Dodgers Do
What Went Down At The Fourth Democratic Debate
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
This Might Be The NFL’s Best Defensive Final Four Ever
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
Why Won’t Science Let Us Have Night Vision Eyedrops?
Significant Digits For Tuesday, Jan. 19, 2016
There Are Fewer Women Coaches In College Basketball Now Than There Were A Decade Ago
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
Was Aaron Rodgers Trying To Game The Coin Flip?
Is The Bernie Sanders Surge Real?
Significant Digits For Wednesday, Jan. 20, 2016
Can The Internet Predict The Oscars?
NFL Coaches Are Getting Away With Crimes Against Middle-School Math
D.C., The Snow Is Coming For You
U.S. Markets Won’t Necessarily Follow China Into The Abyss
The Record For The Hottest Year Ever Just Got Broken Again
The Phrase ‘Mass Shooting’ Belongs To The 21st Century
Significant Digits For Thursday, Jan. 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
It Only Takes Two Women Coaches For The NFL To Tie For No. 1 On Gender Diversity
A History Of Data In American Politics (Part 2): Obama 2008 To The Present
Why Betting Data Alone Can’t Identify Match Fixers In Tennis
The Spurs’ Bench Could Probably Make The Playoffs On Its Own
Sanders’s Iowa Ground Game Is Good — But It Ain’t Obama’s
The Stock Market Is Not The Economy
Night Falls. A Storm Rolls In. Can You Cross The River?
Significant Digits For Friday, Jan. 22, 2016
Introducing FiveThirtyEight’s New Elections Podcast
Kawhi Leonard Is The Most Well-Rounded Elite Shooter Since Larry Bird
Candidates Aren’t Visiting Poorer Parts Of Des Moines
How Math, And Not A Telescope, May Have Found A New Planet
This Blizzard Could Rewrite The Storm Record Books
Why Aren’t Republican Leaders Rallying Behind Marco Rubio?
FiveThirtyEight’s Guide To Predicting The Oscars
LeBron’s Cavs Are The Best Team Ever To Fire Its Coach Midseason
The Most Ominous Snow Forecasts For New York City Were Right
The Des Moines Register’s Endorsements Of Hillary Clinton And Marco Rubio Aren’t Game Changers
The Battle Over CRISPR Could Make Or Break Some Biotech Companies
Significant Digits For Monday, Jan. 25, 2016
Tom Brady Couldn’t Take The Pressure
Spurs-Warriors Is The Best Defense-Offense Clash In NBA History
The Republican Party May Be Failing
What Do Anti-Abortion Demonstrators Want (Besides An End To Abortion)?
Elections Podcast: One Week To Iowa
You’d Have To Be Pretty Dumb To Fix A Tennis Match This Week
Significant Digits For Tuesday, Jan. 26, 2016
How Much Can Really Change Before Iowa Votes
Were There 6 Percent More Murders Last Year, Or 16 Percent?
How Much Do We Need To Know To Predict The Oscars?
What Went Wrong In Flint
The Panthers’ First-Half Blowouts Are Unprecedented
NBA Nerds Are Right — Most Matchups On NBA TV Aren’t So Hot
A Day In The Life Of An Iowa Family Drowning In Campaign Ads
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
Stephen Gostkowski’s Missed Extra Point Was Not Why The Patriots Lost
Significant Digits For Wednesday, Jan. 27, 2016
Donald Trump’s Fox News Feud May Be Another Sign The GOP Is Failing
Ann Selzer Is The Best Pollster In Politics
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
A (Belated) Birthday Tribute To Wayne Gretzky And His Ridiculous Stats
Nominating Cruz Or Trump Might Not Doom Down-Ballot Republicans
Significant Digits For Thursday, Jan. 28, 2016
It’s Rubio Or Bust For Republicans Who Want To Win
Bad Data — And Worse Decisions — Poisoned Flint
There Were 35 Plays More Costly To The Patriots Than Stephen Gostkowski’s Missed Extra Point
The Tennis Court Is A Laboratory For Innovation
Fox News Undercard Republican Debate: Live Coverage
Fox News Republican Debate: Live Coverage
What Would The Republican Race Look Like Without Trump?
Americans Are Still Really Worried About The Economy
Who Will Win The Politicians’ Secret Vote?
Significant Digits For Friday, Jan. 29, 2016
What Happens If Bernie Sanders Wins Iowa
The Push For 10,000 Latino Voters At The Iowa Caucuses
DeMarcus Cousins Is A Usage Monster
Elections Podcast: Special Friday Check-In
Four Roads Out Of Iowa For Republicans
The Best Pollster In Iowa Just Released Its Final Survey — How Accurate Has It Been?
The Rise Of The ‘God Gap’
Hillary Clinton May Win Iowa After All
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep