2008 (2,303 entries)

Live from Invesco: From the Cheap Seats
Open Discussion: The Convention Bounce Adjustment
538 versus Intrade
A Reality Check on South Dakota?
A Technical Note
An Objective (?) Take on Obama's Speech
And Today's Other Poll...
Beware of (Temporarily) Falling Polls
Carolinas Down, 48 to Go
Damage Done?
Does Obama benefit from an active primary campaign?
FAQ
Fivethrityeight.com now twice as good
Frequently Asked Questions, Last Revised 8/7/08
McCain within 3 of Clinton in California, Connecticut [UPDATED]
McCain's first target: New Mexico
Moving beyond the Big Three
New Maps
New Pennsylvania, Michigan polls are good news for McCain
Obama Retains Electability Advantage, but Both Democrats Below 50%
Plenty of Democrats in Red States
Pollster Ratings v2.0
Regions
Schrödinger's Poll
Some "New" North Carolina polls
Still in Beta Test Mode
Summary Results, 3/7/2008
Swing State Analysis
The Clinton voters who won't vote for Obama
The Real Comeback Kid: Ralph Nader?
The Six Types of Voters
Today's Polls, 3/15
Today's Polls, 3/16
Today's Polls, 3/18
Today's Polls, 3/19
Today's Polls, 3/21
Today's Polls, 3/22
Today's Polls, 3/25
Today's Polls, 3/26
Today's Polls, 3/29
Today's Polls: Bad news for both Dems in Virginia
Tonight's Polls, 3/24
Win Percentage Tracker
Wright and the Obamacans
Frequently Asked Questions, Last Revised 8/7/08
Frequently Asked Questions, Last Revised 8/7/08
Pollster Ratings v1.0
Summary Results, 3/7/2008
Summary Results, 3/7/2008
A Reality Check on South Dakota?
Still in Beta Test Mode
Regions
FAQ
538 versus Intrade
Moving beyond the Big Three
Plenty of Democrats in Red States
Some “New” North Carolina polls
The Clinton voters who won’t vote for Obama
Pollster Ratings v2.0
New Pennsylvania, Michigan polls are good news for McCain
Carolinas Down, 48 to Go
Does Obama benefit from an active primary campaign?
Swing State Analysis
New Maps
Today’s Polls, 3/15
Beware of (Temporarily) Falling Polls
The Real Comeback Kid: Ralph Nader?
Today’s Polls, 3/16
A Technical Note
The Six Types of Voters
Damage Done?
Today’s Polls, 3/18
An Objective (?) Take on Obama’s Speech
Today’s Polls, 3/19
Obama Retains Electability Advantage, but Both Democrats Below 50%
Wright and the Obamacans
Today’s Polls, 3/21
Today’s Polls, 3/22
Tonight’s Polls, 3/24
Today’s Polls, 3/25
Today’s Polls, 3/26
Schrödinger’s Poll
McCain within 3 of Clinton in California, Connecticut [UPDATED]
And Today’s Other Poll…
McCain’s first target: New Mexico
Today’s Polls: Bad news for both Dems in Virginia
Fivethrityeight.com now twice as good
Today’s Polls, 3/29
Win Percentage Tracker
A Boring Poll, and a Pop Quiz
Today’s Polls, 3/31
Rasmussen, Survey USA, Enthusiasm and Likely Voters
ARG!
African-American turnout in the primaries
Are Undecideds leaning Clinton in Pennsylvania?
Barr, the Libertarians and Georgia
Call me contrarian, but...
Clinging to Guns
Clinton +2 in North Carolina?
Clinton and Education Levels
Clinton's Bounce
Clinton's Unity Bounce
Contemplating the Unity Bounce
Daily tracking polls show apparently split verdict on Obama
Dear George: voters don't care about electability
Electoral Projections Done Right: Electoral History Charts
Electoral Projections Done Right: Pennsylvania Prediction: Clinton to net 12 delegates, 120K popular votes
Expectations and Realities
Graph(s) of the Day
If 538 were trying to predict the PA primary... [UPDATED]
If it worked for Joe Klein...
Indiana Stragglers (UPDATED)
Is Indiana really more important than North Carolina?
It's the turnout, stupid! [UPDATED]
John McCain: Darling of the East Coast?
Makeover
Math for Donkeys
Matt Drudge: Drama Queen
Michigan versus Ohio (and Pennsylvania)
Obama: the Zima-track candidate?
On the value of the campaign
One benefit of falling poll numbers...
Overton Window
Pennsylvania Scorecard
Pennsylvania: Lackadaisical Liveblog
Pollster Ratings v3.0
Pollster Ratings, v3.1
Quinnipiac: 'Bitter' having no effect in Pennsylvania's small towns (updated)
Regions
Regions, the resolution
Regression Model Q&A
Saturday Night Nerdiness
Small States, Big Advantage
The Education Gap, Part II
The Momentumless Primary
The Other Side of the Undecided Coin
The Pennsylvania Lottery
The Road Not Taken
The Road Veers Right
The Vindictive Clinton Voter, and Other Myths
This Morning's Poll, and a Regression Model Makeover
This Morning's Polls, 4/30
Three Thoughts on Tonight's Debate
Today's (General Election) Polls, 4/22
Today's Polls, 4/11
Today's Polls, 4/12
Today's Polls, 4/14
Today's Polls, 4/15
Today's Polls, 4/17: Obama takes a hit, with caveat
Today's Polls, 4/18
Today's Polls, 4/20
Today's Polls, 4/21
Today's Polls, 4/23
Today's Polls, 4/24
Today's Polls, 4/25
Today's Polls, 4/28
Today's Polls, 4/6
Today's Polls, 4/7
Today's Polls: Alaska!
Tonight's Polls, 4/8
Voters v. Media: a concerning result
WNBC/Marist: New York a Swing State?
We know even less than we think (a methodological note)
Will Clinton get a Keystone Bounce?
Wine States versus Beer States
State-by-State Fundraising Numbers
A Game-Changer in Ohio?
The Reverse Bradley Effect: Fact or Fiction?
Site Fixes
Today’s Polls: Great News for Hillary
It’s 3 AM: Time to Fire Your Creative Director
Polls Now Weighted by Sample Size
Today’s Polls, 4/3: A 30,000-foot look at Pennsylvania
Today’s Polls, 4/4
The Clinton Voters who won’t vote for Obama, Part II
Saturday Night Nerdiness
Today’s Polls, 4/6
The Momentumless Primary
Graph(s) of the Day
Today’s Polls, 4/7
Clinton and Education Levels
Barr, the Libertarians and Georgia
Tonight’s Polls, 4/8
African-American turnout in the primaries
The Education Gap, Part II
If 538 were trying to predict the PA primary… [UPDATED]
We know even less than we think (a methodological note)
WNBC/Marist: New York a Swing State?
Makeover
Obama: the Zima-track candidate?
Today’s Polls: Alaska!
Small States, Big Advantage
Contemplating the Unity Bounce
If it worked for Joe Klein…
Today’s Polls, 4/11
Clinton’s Unity Bounce
Regions
Today’s Polls, 4/12
Clinging to Guns
Regions, the resolution
Daily tracking polls show apparently split verdict on Obama
Today’s Polls, 4/14
Michigan versus Ohio (and Pennsylvania)
ARG!
Quinnipiac: ‘Bitter’ having no effect in Pennsylvania’s small towns (updated)
Today’s Polls, 4/15
Pennsylvania Prediction: Clinton to net 12 delegates, 120K popular votes
Three Thoughts on Tonight’s Debate
On the value of the campaign
Today’s Polls, 4/17: Obama takes a hit, with caveat
Dear George: voters don’t care about electability
John McCain: Darling of the East Coast?
Today’s Polls, 4/18
Are Undecideds leaning Clinton in Pennsylvania?
The Other Side of the Undecided Coin
Today’s Polls, 4/20
The Pennsylvania Lottery
It’s the turnout, stupid! [UPDATED]
Today’s Polls, 4/21
The Road Not Taken
Expectations and Realities
Today’s (General Election) Polls, 4/22
Matt Drudge: Drama Queen
Pennsylvania Scorecard
Pennsylvania: Lackadaisical Liveblog
Today’s Polls, 4/23
Math for Donkeys
Overton Window
Today’s Polls, 4/24
Will Clinton get a Keystone Bounce?
Indiana Stragglers (UPDATED)
The Vindictive Clinton Voter, and Other Myths
Today’s Polls, 4/25
This Morning’s Poll, and a Regression Model Makeover
Regression Model Q&A
Is Indiana really more important than North Carolina?
The Road Veers Right
Pollster Ratings v3.0
Call me contrarian, but…
Clinton’s Bounce
Wine States versus Beer States
Today’s Polls, 4/28
Electoral History Charts
One benefit of falling poll numbers…
Pollster Ratings, v3.1
This Morning’s Polls, 4/30
"A fair reflection of a flawed primary"
A Senior Surge?
A landmark, of sorts
ARG Attacks!
Adventures in Lannyland
African-American turnout in North Carolina, Part II
Among working class whites, Clinton kicked Edwards' ass too
Back-of-envelope
But Dukakis <span style="font-style:italic;">won</span> West Virginia
CBS/NYT: Both Dems lead McCain by double digits
Can Obama Clinch on June 3rd?
Challenge to Dick Bennett of American Research Group
Clinton is blowing the popular vote argument
Clinton wins West Virginia
Defeat with Dignity?
Delegate Scenarios, Edwards Edition
Did Clinton Misplay her Ace?
Does Clinton really lead in Swing Districts?
Election Night Thread
Electoral Projections Done Right: Black, Youth and Latino Turnout, and Obama's Electoral Map
Everything you always wanted to know about Obama's pledged delegate clinching scenarios*
Five Reasons why 2012 is a No-Go for Clinton
Gay rights issues present opportunities for both candidates
Hers if She Wants It?
Hillary's Oregon Problem
Hope for Hillary in Oregon?
Incoming!
Indiana Prediction: Toss-Up, but tilts Clinton; possible 36-36 delegate split
Indiana Scorecard
Instant Coffee
It seems trivial now...
It's not all about Obama
It's rare to tap the #2
Kentucky Projection: Clinton by 19
Kentucky/Oregon Primary Night Thread
Kentucky/Oregon wrap-up
Late Movement?
Like Kissing Your Sister
Limited Sample Size Department
Make your own North Carolina prediction
McCain-Jindal?
Meanwhile, on Planet Obama...
Michigan's turnout
Michigan: What would have happened?
Move along, nothing to see here
Multiple Choice
National Review solves Fermat's Last Theorem
No, I'm not Chuck Todd
North Carolina Prediction: Obama by Double Digits
North Carolina Scorecard
OR-51 for the Win?
Obama Margin of Error
Obama's favorite pollsters (and Clinton's)
Obama's new magic number: <strike>63</strike>? 64?
Oregon Projection: Obama by 13
Oregon: Swing State or latte-drinking, Prius-driving lesbian commune?
Party Identification in Ohio
Pollster Ratings, v3.1.1
Primary Night Thread II (Oregon)
Q&A on Minority Turnout Model
Quote of the Day
RSS Feed
Rasmussen: Obama leads Clinton by 11 since North Carolina victory
Revised Oregon turnout estimate
Six versus half-a-dozen
Tarheel Tidbits
The Early Bird still got the Worm
The Eighth Reason
The Libertarians' Big Tent
The Superdelegate Thermostat
The choose-your-own-adventure primary
The odds of a recount
The older bird gets the worm?
Three-Way?
Today's Polls II, 5/22
Today's Polls, 5/1
Today's Polls, 5/10
Today's Polls, 5/12
Today's Polls, 5/15
Today's Polls, 5/16
Today's Polls, 5/17
Today's Polls, 5/18
Today's Polls, 5/19
Today's Polls, 5/20
Today's Polls, 5/21 [UPDATED]
Today's Polls, 5/22
Today's Polls, 5/23
Today's Polls, 5/24
Today's Polls, 5/25
Today's Polls, 5/26
Today's Polls, 5/27
Today's Polls, 5/28
Today's Polls, 5/29
Today's Polls, 5/3
Today's Polls, 5/30
Today's Polls, 5/5
Today's Polls, 5/7
Today's Polls, 5/8
Today's Polls: Obama and Clinton chasing 50% against McCain
Tonight's Polls, 5/11
Turnout in Puerto Rico
Two Wrongs make a Right?
Victory Lap?
War Games?
West Virginia Preview: Clinton by 39 points, 105,000 votes
What are they waiting for?
Wish List
Would Obama win the California primary today?
Clinton +2 in North Carolina?
Voters v. Media: a concerning result
Indiana Prediction: Toss-Up, but tilts Clinton; possible 36-36 delegate split
Today’s Polls, 5/1
It’s not all about Obama
ARG Attacks!
Make your own North Carolina prediction
Today’s Polls: Obama and Clinton chasing 50% against McCain
Tarheel Tidbits
Today’s Polls, 5/3
OR-51 for the Win?
CBS/NYT: Both Dems lead McCain by double digits
North Carolina Prediction: Obama by Double Digits
Today’s Polls, 5/5
Late Movement?
Obama’s favorite pollsters (and Clinton’s)
African-American turnout in North Carolina, Part II
Indiana Scorecard
North Carolina Scorecard
The older bird gets the worm?
Obama Margin of Error
Election Night Thread
Quote of the Day
Victory Lap?
The Eighth Reason
Did Clinton Misplay her Ace?
Today’s Polls, 5/7
The Superdelegate Thermostat
Hers if She Wants It?
Today’s Polls, 5/8
Everything you always wanted to know about Obama’s pledged delegate clinching scenarios*
Rasmussen: Obama leads Clinton by 11 since North Carolina victory
Challenge to Dick Bennett of American Research Group
Today’s Polls, 5/10
Does Clinton really lead in Swing Districts?
What are they waiting for?
Black, Youth and Latino Turnout, and Obama’s Electoral Map
Tonight’s Polls, 5/11
Q&A on Minority Turnout Model
Five Reasons why 2012 is a No-Go for Clinton
Today’s Polls, 5/12
Would Obama win the California primary today?
West Virginia Preview: Clinton by 39 points, 105,000 votes
Back-of-envelope
Clinton wins West Virginia
Two Wrongs make a Right?
The Early Bird still got the Worm
Hillary’s Oregon Problem
A landmark, of sorts
Multiple Choice
Delegate Scenarios, Edwards Edition
Among working class whites, Clinton kicked Edwards’ ass too
Today’s Polls, 5/15
But Dukakis won West Virginia
Meanwhile, on Planet Obama…
Gay rights issues present opportunities for both candidates
Today’s Polls, 5/16
War Games?
Today’s Polls, 5/17
Hope for Hillary in Oregon?
Oregon: Swing State or latte-drinking, Prius-driving lesbian commune?
Today’s Polls, 5/18
Like Kissing Your Sister
Oregon Projection: Obama by 13
Today’s Polls, 5/19
Clinton is blowing the popular vote argument
Revised Oregon turnout estimate
Kentucky Projection: Clinton by 19
RSS Feed
Today’s Polls, 5/20
It seems trivial now…
Move along, nothing to see here
Kentucky/Oregon Primary Night Thread
Primary Night Thread II (Oregon)
Kentucky/Oregon wrap-up
Today’s Polls, 5/21 [UPDATED]
Wish List
Three-Way?
National Review solves Fermat’s Last Theorem
Can Obama Clinch on June 3rd?
Today’s Polls, 5/22
Today’s Polls II, 5/22
It’s rare to tap the #2
Today’s Polls, 5/23
Party Identification in Ohio
Michigan: What would have happened?
Today’s Polls, 5/24
Today’s Polls, 5/25
The odds of a recount
McCain-Jindal?
Today’s Polls, 5/26
Limited Sample Size Department
The Libertarians’ Big Tent
Adventures in Lannyland
Defeat with Dignity?
Today’s Polls, 5/27
Pollster Ratings, v3.1.1
Today’s Polls, 5/28
A Senior Surge?
Incoming!
Instant Coffee
Today’s Polls, 5/29
Six versus half-a-dozen
Turnout in Puerto Rico
No, I’m not Chuck Todd
Today’s Polls, 5/30
The choose-your-own-adventure primary
“A fair reflection of a flawed primary”
Obama’s new magic number: 63? 64?
Michigan’s turnout
'Zona Defense
51,199,463,116,367 (Shout-Outs)
538's Battlegrounds as of Mid-June
A Call for Pollster-Poblano Unity
A New Map
A Refinement to the Adjustment, Part I
A Refinement to the Adjustment, Part II
A Word on Voter Files
After the Magic Number, the new Magic Number
Afternoon Polling Update, 6/18
An Attempt at Senate Race Rankings
Another Vote for Chuck Todd
Arguing against the polls
BREAKING: Hillary concedes that she conceded to concede...
Bob Barr Not Going Viral
Briefings, Branding, and Bravado
CNN Video
Can Nader help Obama?
Can a VP Nominee "Win" a State?
Candidate Health Report: John McCain
Carne Asada con Obama
Clinton wins Puerto Rico
Clinton-McCain archive
Coming Soon
Construction Season Over (Technical)
Convention Choices and Electoral Offense
Defining a "Must Win" (Technical)
Delegate Update, Post-Puerto Rico
Does Obama still have an Appalachia Problem?
Ebb and Flow
Electoral Projections Done Right: Liberal-Conservative Rankings Done Right
Electoral Projections Done Right: Why Obama isn't like Dukakis
Etc. Etc. Etc.
Evening Polling Update, 6/19
Exit poll hints at a big Clinton win in Puerto Rico?
Exit poll teasers (updated)
Fear of the Unknown
Final Popular Vote Estimates: Obama wins 7 of 8 Michigan scenarios
Grand Finale Night Liveblog
Grand Finale Night Liveblog II: Montana and Obama's Speech
Guess Who's Blogging for the National Press Club?
Hillary Clinton: Czarina of Recounts?
Hillary's Future (at 538)
Homework Assignment
How (not) to win over Clinton supporters
How the Electoral College Hurts the GOP
If the Election WERE Held Today...
Internal Polls
Is 2118 the Magic Number?
Is Charlie Black Right?
Is Obama Becoming 'Generic Democrat'?
Keep an eye on SC-Sen
Liberal-Conservative Scores for Senate Candidates
Major Update Coming
McCain VP: Pawlenty Guarantees MN, WI?
McCain's Atheist Problem?
McCain's strategy: force a gaffe?
Midday Notes
Montana Projection: Obama by 18
Moving Beyond the Seat Count
National Polls
Now It Matters
Obama's bounce in state polling
Obama's bounce in state vs national polls
On Brian Schweitzer as VP
On which reputations are made (or lost)
Oregon: Foreshadowing?
Pardon the Dust
Popular Vote Scenario Tester, Online Version [UPDATED]
Popular Vote v Electoral Vote
Rehabilitation for Herself: What Could Clinton Say?
Right Track
Sean = PocketNines
Senate Polling Permathread (Updated 6/30)
Senate Projections Methodology Primer, Part I
Senate Projections are Live
Should McCain just embrace the bad polls?
Should we be discounting Obama's lead? The next and hopefully last Big Change.
Some signs of a unity bounce
South Dakota Projection: Obama by 5
Swing District Dems voted for FISA Compromise
Tea Leaves
The Electric Minor Political Scandal Acid Test
The Obama Eighteen
The Win Percentage Tracker Returns
The best move of the general election season (so far)
Tim Russert
Today's Polls, 6/1
Today's Polls, 6/11
Today's Polls, 6/12
Today's Polls, 6/13
Today's Polls, 6/16
Today's Polls, 6/17
Today's Polls, 6/18
Today's Polls, 6/19
Today's Polls, 6/2
Today's Polls, 6/20
Today's Polls, 6/21
Today's Polls, 6/22
Today's Polls, 6/23
Today's Polls, 6/24
Today's Polls, 6/25
Today's Polls, 6/26
Today's Polls, 6/27
Today's Polls, 6/29
Today's Polls, 6/3
Today's Polls, 6/30
Today's Polls, 6/5
Today's Polls, 6/6
Today's Polls, 6/8
Today's Polls, 6/9
Tonight's Polls, 6/10
Trendline now calculated from daily numbers
Two Mediocrities?
We don't know as much as we think (Big Change #1)
We know more than we think (Big Change #2)
Weekend Poll Catchup
Which Candidate has a Base Problem?
Why Obama should visit Alaska, Part II
World's Simplest Election Projection
Wrong Track
Is 2118 the Magic Number?
Today’s Polls, 6/1
Exit poll hints at a big Clinton win in Puerto Rico?
Now It Matters
Clinton wins Puerto Rico
Popular Vote Scenario Tester, Online Version [UPDATED]
Delegate Update, Post-Puerto Rico
Fear of the Unknown
On which reputations are made (or lost)
Today’s Polls, 6/2
Arguing against the polls
South Dakota Projection: Obama by 5
After the Magic Number, the new Magic Number
Montana Projection: Obama by 18
BREAKING: Hillary concedes that she conceded to concede…
Midday Notes
Exit poll teasers (updated)
Today’s Polls, 6/3
Sean = PocketNines
Grand Finale Night Liveblog
Grand Finale Night Liveblog II: Montana and Obama’s Speech
Two Mediocrities?
McCain’s strategy: force a gaffe?
Final Popular Vote Estimates: Obama wins 7 of 8 Michigan scenarios
Hillary’s Future (at 538)
On Brian Schweitzer as VP
National Polls
A Call for Pollster-Poblano Unity
Today’s Polls, 6/5
A New Map
Pardon the Dust
Today’s Polls, 6/6
Some signs of a unity bounce
Hillary Clinton: Czarina of Recounts?
Rehabilitation for Herself: What Could Clinton Say?
Clinton-McCain archive
How the Electoral College Hurts the GOP
Briefings, Branding, and Bravado
Can Nader help Obama?
Today’s Polls, 6/8
An Attempt at Senate Race Rankings
Today’s Polls, 6/9
The best move of the general election season (so far)
Liberal-Conservative Rankings Done Right
Homework Assignment
Candidate Health Report: John McCain
Tonight’s Polls, 6/10
Today’s Polls, 6/11
51,199,463,116,367 (Shout-Outs)
‘Zona Defense
Today’s Polls, 6/12
Carne Asada con Obama
World’s Simplest Election Projection
Etc. Etc. Etc.
Today’s Polls, 6/13
CNN Video
Tim Russert
McCain’s Atheist Problem?
Major Update Coming
We don’t know as much as we think (Big Change #1)
We know more than we think (Big Change #2)
Convention Choices and Electoral Offense
A Refinement to the Adjustment, Part I
A Refinement to the Adjustment, Part II
Weekend Poll Catchup
Popular Vote v Electoral Vote
Today’s Polls, 6/16
538’s Battlegrounds as of Mid-June
Tea Leaves
Guess Who’s Blogging for the National Press Club?
Can a VP Nominee “Win” a State?
Today’s Polls, 6/17
Trendline now calculated from daily numbers
Defining a “Must Win” (Technical)
Today’s Polls, 6/18
Obama’s bounce in state polling
Afternoon Polling Update, 6/18
Does Obama still have an Appalachia Problem?
Why Obama should visit Alaska, Part II
Coming Soon
Today’s Polls, 6/19
Evening Polling Update, 6/19
Another Vote for Chuck Todd
How (not) to win over Clinton supporters
McCain VP: Pawlenty Guarantees MN, WI?
Today’s Polls, 6/20
Swing District Dems voted for FISA Compromise
Obama’s bounce in state vs national polls
Today’s Polls, 6/21
A Word on Voter Files
Why Obama isn’t like Dukakis
Today’s Polls, 6/22
The Win Percentage Tracker Returns
Today’s Polls, 6/23
Is Charlie Black Right?
Keep an eye on SC-Sen
Liberal-Conservative Scores for Senate Candidates
Today’s Polls, 6/24
Oregon: Foreshadowing?
Moving Beyond the Seat Count
Today’s Polls, 6/25
The Obama Eighteen
Should McCain just embrace the bad polls?
Which Candidate has a Base Problem?
Today’s Polls, 6/26
Should we be discounting Obama’s lead? The next and hopefully last Big Change.
Ebb and Flow
Wrong Track
Right Track
Today’s Polls, 6/27
Bob Barr Not Going Viral
Construction Season Over (Technical)
If the Election WERE Held Today…
The Electric Minor Political Scandal Acid Test
Today’s Polls, 6/29
Is Obama Becoming ‘Generic Democrat’?
Senate Polling Permathread (Updated 6/30)
Senate Projections are Live
Internal Polls
Today’s Polls, 6/30
538 Battlegrounds as of Mid-July
A Short List of Short Lists [UPDATED]
A Small Change
AK-Sen: Ted Stevens Indicted
About that McCain +4
And Here I Thought John Kerry Lost...
Barack is, like, *so* popular!
Bob Barr Meets The Netroots
Cellphones (and Open Thread)
Charts Updated (Finally)
Clinton's Debt Reveals Flaws in Campaign Finance Laws
Comments Now Require Registration
Democrats Swayed More By Muslim Misinfo
Did the <span style="font-style: italic;">New Yorker</span> Get Snubbed from the Obama Campaign Plane?
Do High Gas Prices Help Obama?
Dueling Ohio Polls
Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls (AM Edition), 7/31
Electoral Projections Done Right: What Barack Obama Needs to Win
Energy Gap: Following Campaign News "Very Closely"
Equal Time
Fall Edwards-Rove Debates Mean No Edwards VP?
Flip-Flopping: As American as Apple Pie
Hard Support vs. Soft Support
Irresponsible Journalism Alert
It's A <span style="font-style:italic;">Dry</span> Heat
Lanny Davis: Still a Hack After All These Years
Lessons from the Overseas Trip
Likely Voters More Republican?
McCain Ups the Ante
My Least Favorite Argument
Name ... that ... Subgroup!
No Fireworks, But A Few Small Changes
Obama and Austin, Take II
Obama and al-Maliki
Obama on Offense in Florida
Opportunity Cost
Quibble
Raising Kaine?
Ready for the Next Mini-Maelstrom?
Return on Investment
Romney's Effect On the Map
Sebelius Shell Game?
Senate Polling Weekly Update, 7/20
Senate Polling Weekly Update, 7/28
Shock and Awe, Paid Organizer Version
Something You Probably Never Expected to See
Speaking of North Dakota...
Steve Schmidt Gets It
The Cellphone Problem, Revisited
The Reverse Nader Effect
The Sleeper Issue of 2008: Beer
The Subliminal Power of Obama's Berlin Speech
Today's Polls (PM Edition), 7/31
Today's Polls and Miscellaneous Thoughts, 7/27
Today's Polls, 7/1
Today's Polls, 7/13
Today's Polls, 7/14
Today's Polls, 7/15
Today's Polls, 7/17
Today's Polls, 7/18
Today's Polls, 7/2
Today's Polls, 7/21
Today's Polls, 7/22
Today's Polls, 7/23
Today's Polls, 7/24
Today's Polls, 7/25
Today's Polls, 7/26
Today's Polls, 7/29
Today's Polls, 7/3
Today's Polls, 7/30
Today's Polls, 7/5
Tom and Huckabee
Travel Delays / Open Thread
VP Contenders by the Numbers
When Memes Collide
Why are New Jersey Politicians Always Rich? An Analysis of TV Markets.
Yesterday's Polls, 7/16
Zugzwang
Senate Projections Methodology Primer, Part I
Today’s Polls, 7/1
Lanny Davis: Still a Hack After All These Years
And Here I Thought John Kerry Lost…
Irresponsible Journalism Alert
A Small Change
Today’s Polls, 7/2
Steve Schmidt Gets It
Something You Probably Never Expected to See
Energy Gap: Following Campaign News “Very Closely”
Speaking of North Dakota…
Today’s Polls, 7/3
Flip-Flopping: As American as Apple Pie
Return on Investment
Fall Edwards-Rove Debates Mean No Edwards VP?
No Fireworks, But A Few Small Changes
Why are New Jersey Politicians Always Rich? An Analysis of TV Markets.
Today’s Polls, 7/5
Nuclear Deterrence?
State Similarity Scores
Webb Out; Who’s Up? [UPDATED]
The Virtue of Vetting
Senate Polling Weekly Update, 7/7
Has Obama Won the Center? [UPDATED]
Shadow Senate Race?
Zogby Interactive Data Dump
Quibble
Leaners
Today’s Polls, 7/9
Popular Vote v Electoral Vote, Part II
Better to be Lucky…
Tipping Point v2.0
Today’s Polls, 7/10
The Other Advantage of Opting Out
Obama is the New…
Today’s Polls, 7/11
This Post is Already Written
Today’s Polls, 7/12
Running (Mate) to the Center [UPDATED]
Republican VP Speculation Thread
Today’s Polls, 7/13
When Memes Collide
Travel Delays / Open Thread
Today’s Polls, 7/14
Shock and Awe, Paid Organizer Version
Equal Time
Hard Support vs. Soft Support
Democrats Swayed More By Muslim Misinfo
Today’s Polls, 7/15
538 Battlegrounds as of Mid-July
Yesterday’s Polls, 7/16
Today’s Polls, 7/17
Likely Voters More Republican?
Ready for the Next Mini-Maelstrom?
Today’s Polls, 7/18
It’s A Dry Heat
Cellphones (and Open Thread)
Bob Barr Meets The Netroots
Obama and Austin, Take II
Obama and al-Maliki
Clinton’s Debt Reveals Flaws in Campaign Finance Laws
Senate Polling Weekly Update, 7/20
Zugzwang
Today’s Polls, 7/21
Did the New Yorker Get Snubbed from the Obama Campaign Plane?
Dueling Ohio Polls
The Cellphone Problem, Revisited
Today’s Polls, 7/22
Raising Kaine?
Do High Gas Prices Help Obama?
Today’s Polls, 7/23
Charts Updated (Finally)
The Reverse Nader Effect
Today’s Polls, 7/24
What Barack Obama Needs to Win
Lessons from the Overseas Trip
McCain Ups the Ante
Today’s Polls, 7/25
Name … that … Subgroup!
Today’s Polls, 7/26
The Sleeper Issue of 2008: Beer
The Subliminal Power of Obama’s Berlin Speech
Today’s Polls and Miscellaneous Thoughts, 7/27
Romney’s Effect On the Map
Senate Polling Weekly Update, 7/28
A Short List of Short Lists [UPDATED]
About that McCain +4
Comments Now Require Registration
Tom and Huckabee
AK-Sen: Ted Stevens Indicted
Today’s Polls, 7/29
VP Contenders by the Numbers
Obama on Offense in Florida
Barack is, like, *so* popular!
Today’s Polls, 7/30
Sebelius Shell Game?
My Least Favorite Argument
Today’s Polls (AM Edition), 7/31
Today’s Polls (PM Edition), 7/31
"Clear-Eyed Pragmatist": The Obama Brand Has Come Full-Circle
...and Speaking of Head-Fakes
538 on <span style="font-style: italic;">Countdown</span>
538's Battlegrounds as of Mid-August
<img src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3177/2789218680_9133fff4c4_o.png" /> It's Official: Obama Picks Biden
<img src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3177/2789218680_9133fff4c4_o.png" /> Multiple Reports: Palin is VP Nominee
<img src="http://img.tradekey.com/lang/en/images/updated_icon.gif" /> On Obama-Clinton
<img src="http://img.tradekey.com/lang/en/images/updated_icon.gif" /> Pastor Warren Contradicts Self on 'Cone of Silence'
<img src="http://img.tradekey.com/lang/en/images/updated_icon.gif" /> The One Tea Leaf Worth Reading
<img src="http://img.tradekey.com/lang/en/images/updated_icon.gif" /> Unabashed Media Whoring (and Open Thread)
A Perspective on Mazen Asbahi
ABC Dealt Out Of Presidential Debates
Barack Obama Officially Becomes Democratic Nominee for Presdient
Bayhdenkabelius
Biden: A New Trick for Old Fogeys
Black Vote Was Invisible To Penn
Brent Musburger Lives!
Bubba By Numbers
CNN Poll Suggests Trouble for Obama, But Omits Proper Context
Can Biden Out-Hillary Hillary?
Clinton Campaign Didn’t Grasp Rudimentary Proportionality Math
Context on Battleground Spending
DNC Day 3: Live Twitter Thread
Democratic VP Buyer's Guide
Democrats Will Be Watching Denver (And We'll Be There)
Did McCain's Campaign Just Confirm Andrea Mitchell's Reporting?
Do Voters Like Joe Biden?
Electoral Projections Done Right: The Persistent Myth of the Bradley Effect
Evan Bayh: Latent Liberal?
FAQ Updated
Force Multiplier
Fox's Pro-Choice Poison Pill?
Friday Afternoon Leftovers
Gallup Shows an Initial Convention Bounce for Obama
Gustav Could Be Boon to GOP
House Effects In Da House
How McCain is Winning on the Economy
How You Look, How You Sound, What You Say
I'm Hearing...
Is GA-Sen in Play?
Is Obama Underachieving?
Is There a Clinton Backlash? How About A Backlash Backlash?
Late Nite Polls, 8/17
Live From St. Paul, It’s A… Convention?
Live from Denver, It's Hillary Clinton! (DNC thread #2)
Live from Denver, It's Tuesday Night!
Live from Invesco: From the Press Box
McCain Improves With Base, Obama Stays Flat
McCain Just Says No to Indiana
McCain Now Winning Small Majority of Simulations
Media Alert
Monday Night Liveblog: Live From Denver
Not Even Close
Nuggets (and Open Veepwatch Thread)
Obama Leads Better Than 3:1 in Field Offices
Obama Outperforming Kerry Among Nearly All Demographics
Obama and the Youth Vote
Obama-SebeliBus?
Obama: Seat FL/MI Delegates with Full Votes
On Likely Voters and the Long Tail
Online Chat at 1 PM Eastern / 12 PM Central
Organizing Update
Palin VP Rollout Liveblog
Palin: It's Not Really About Experience
Palin: More Follow Up Comments
Road to 270: Hawaii
Road to 270: Indiana
Road to 270: Maine
Road to 270: Mississippi
Road to 270: North Carolina
Road to 270: Oklahoma
Road to 270: Wyoming
Romney: Demographics Over Narrative
Saddleback
Sarah Palin Thoughts, Revised and Extended
Senate Polling Weekly Update, 8/12
Senate Polling Weekly Update, 8/22
Senate Polling Weekly Update, 8/5
Sending Out an S.O.S.
Should Obama Expect a Big Convention Bounce?
Should Obama Have Asked for More Debates?
Sister Kissing Update
Something Was The Matter With Kansas (Technical)
Source: It's Not Pawlenty
Spears-Hilton Week Over, McCain's News Coverage Falls Again
Spears-Hilton Week Pulls McCain Even in Coverage Volume
Subtext Conflict: Celebrity Vs. Otherness
The Case for Hillary
The Gang of 10: Obama's Checkmate?
The Georgia Conflict and the Case for Clark
The Grinch Who Stole The Olympics
The NASCAR Dad of 2008? It Might be The Perot Voter.
The Next Laura Ingraham?
The Oprah Effect, Revisited
Today (DNC Day 2)
Today's Polls, 08/08/08
Today's Polls, 8/11
Today's Polls, 8/12
Today's Polls, 8/13
Today's Polls, 8/14
Today's Polls, 8/15
Today's Polls, 8/16
Today's Polls, 8/18
Today's Polls, 8/19
Today's Polls, 8/20
Today's Polls, 8/21
Today's Polls, 8/22
Today's Polls, 8/23
Today's Polls, 8/24
Today's Polls, 8/25
Today's Polls, 8/26
Today's Polls, 8/27
Today's Polls, 8/29
Today's Polls, 8/3
Today's Polls, 8/30
Today's Polls, 8/31
Today's Polls, 8/4
Today's Polls, 8/5 (Procrastinator Edition)
Today's Polls, 8/6
Today's Polls, 8/7
Travel Globally, Attack Locally
VP Announcement Timing
VP: Short the Faves
Voter Contacts
Voting Early in Battleground States
Warner Will Be Dems' Keynoter [UPDATED]
Wednesday Night Liveblog #1: Bill
Wednesday Night Liveblog #2: Biden
What Would You Do With $5M in Ad Time? [UPDATED]
What a Convention Bounce Looks Like
Why Howard Wolfson is Out of a Job
Women View Palin More Skeptically than Men
Yesterday's Polls (8/1 Catchup)
Yet Another Conegate Thread
Yet Another Veep Thread: Nobody Knows Anything
Opportunity Cost
Obama Outperforming Kerry Among Nearly All Demographics
How You Look, How You Sound, What You Say
VP: Short the Faves
Yesterday’s Polls (8/1 Catchup)
Organizing Update
Today’s Polls, 8/3
McCain Just Says No to Indiana
Obama: Seat FL/MI Delegates with Full Votes
Is Obama Underachieving?
Should Obama Have Asked for More Debates?
Today’s Polls, 8/4
Evan Bayh: Latent Liberal?
What Would You Do With $5M in Ad Time? [UPDATED]
Spears-Hilton Week Pulls McCain Even in Coverage Volume
Senate Polling Weekly Update, 8/5
Today’s Polls, 8/5 (Procrastinator Edition)
FAQ Updated
Is GA-Sen in Play?
The Oprah Effect, Revisited
Today’s Polls, 8/6
ABC Dealt Out Of Presidential Debates
The Gang of 10: Obama’s Checkmate?
On Likely Voters and the Long Tail
Today’s Polls, 8/7
Bubba By Numbers
Force Multiplier
Not Even Close
A Perspective on Mazen Asbahi
Media Alert
Today’s Polls, 08/08/08
538 on Countdown
Subtext Conflict: Celebrity Vs. Otherness
Obama Leads Better Than 3:1 in Field Offices
The Grinch Who Stole The Olympics
Obama and the Youth Vote
Travel Globally, Attack Locally
The Persistent Myth of the Bradley Effect
Why Howard Wolfson is Out of a Job
The Georgia Conflict and the Case for Clark
Today’s Polls, 8/11
Black Vote Was Invisible To Penn
Spears-Hilton Week Over, McCain’s News Coverage Falls Again
Senate Polling Weekly Update, 8/12
Today’s Polls, 8/12
Warner Will Be Dems’ Keynoter [UPDATED]
Road to 270: Indiana
Today’s Polls, 8/13
Bayhdenkabelius
Sending Out an S.O.S.
Road to 270: Mississippi
How McCain is Winning on the Economy
The Next Laura Ingraham?
Clinton Campaign Didn’t Grasp Rudimentary Proportionality Math
Today’s Polls, 8/14
McCain Improves With Base, Obama Stays Flat
What a Convention Bounce Looks Like
Road to 270: Maine
Today’s Polls, 8/15
Friday Afternoon Leftovers
Today’s Polls, 8/16
538’s Battlegrounds as of Mid-August
Sister Kissing Update
Saddleback
Voter Contacts
Democratic VP Buyer’s Guide
Pastor Warren Contradicts Self on ‘Cone of Silence’
On Obama-Clinton
Did McCain’s Campaign Just Confirm Andrea Mitchell’s Reporting?
Late Nite Polls, 8/17
Road to 270: Hawaii
VP Announcement Timing
Today’s Polls, 8/18
Yet Another Veep Thread: Nobody Knows Anything
Yet Another Conegate Thread
Do Voters Like Joe Biden?
Online Chat at 1 PM Eastern / 12 PM Central
Context on Battleground Spending
Fox’s Pro-Choice Poison Pill?
Today’s Polls, 8/19
Biden: A New Trick for Old Fogeys
I’m Hearing…
Obama-SebeliBus?
McCain Now Winning Small Majority of Simulations
Today’s Polls, 8/20
The Case for Hillary
Road to 270: Oklahoma
Unabashed Media Whoring (and Open Thread)
Democrats Will Be Watching Denver (And We'll Be There)
Democrats Will Be Watching Denver (And We’ll Be There)
Today’s Polls, 8/21
Something Was The Matter With Kansas (Technical)
Romney: Demographics Over Narrative
The One Tea Leaf Worth Reading
Senate Polling Weekly Update, 8/22
Brent Musburger Lives!
Road to 270: North Carolina
Nuggets (and Open Veepwatch Thread)
Today’s Polls, 8/22
It’s Official: Obama Picks Biden
Can Biden Out-Hillary Hillary?
Today’s Polls, 8/23
“Clear-Eyed Pragmatist”: The Obama Brand Has Come Full-Circle
Is There a Clinton Backlash? How About A Backlash Backlash?
Road to 270: Wyoming
Today’s Polls, 8/24
CNN Poll Suggests Trouble for Obama, But Omits Proper Context
House Effects In Da House
Today’s Polls, 8/25
Should Obama Expect a Big Convention Bounce?
Monday Night Liveblog: Live From Denver
Today (DNC Day 2)
Today’s Polls, 8/26
The NASCAR Dad of 2008? It Might be The Perot Voter.
Live from Denver, It’s Tuesday Night!
Live from Denver, It’s Hillary Clinton! (DNC thread #2)
Voting Early in Battleground States
Barack Obama Officially Becomes Democratic Nominee for Presdient
Today’s Polls, 8/27
Wednesday Night Liveblog #1: Bill
DNC Day 3: Live Twitter Thread
Wednesday Night Liveblog #2: Biden
Gallup Shows an Initial Convention Bounce for Obama
Live from Invesco: From the Cheap Seats
Live from Invesco: From the Press Box
Source: It’s Not Pawlenty
…and Speaking of Head-Fakes
Multiple Reports: Palin is VP Nominee
Palin VP Rollout Liveblog
Palin: It’s Not Really About Experience
Sarah Palin Thoughts, Revised and Extended
Today’s Polls, 8/29
Palin: More Follow Up Comments
Women View Palin More Skeptically than Men
Today’s Polls, 8/30
Today’s Polls, 8/31
Gustav Could Be Boon to GOP
'Lipstick' Ad Doesn't Move Focus Group's Votes
12th Amendment Update: Tie Probability Continues to Increase
538's Battlegrounds as of Mid-September
<img src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3177/2789218680_9133fff4c4_o.png" /> Estimating the Cellphone Effect: 2.8 <strike>2.2</strike> Points
A Great Speech, For Both Bases
AM Trackers Suggest Poor Reaction to McCain Announcement
All Your Base Are Belong to Her
Allocating the Undecideds
Are Pollsters Oversampling Republicans?
BREAKING: Obama Campaign Organizers Trying To Win Election Instead of Get You Yard Signs
Bad Math and the Bradley Effect
Big Media Me
Bonus Polling Update, 9/8
Colorado Rates as Most Important State
Cracking a Tracking Poll: Theory and Practice
Debate Goals
Debates May Not Be Decisive After All
Dems Must Give Voters Explicit Permission To Like Palin
Did McCain Really Get the Bigger Bounce?
Electoral Projections Done Right: <img src=http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3177/2789218680_9133fff4c4_o.png> Crackin' a Trackin' Poll
Electoral Projections Done Right: <img src=http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3177/2789218680_9133fff4c4_o.png> Today's Polls, 9/4
Electoral Projections Done Right: Ann Selzer on Youth & Minority Turnout
Electoral Projections Done Right: Cognitive Dissonance
Electoral Projections Done Right: Palin, Biden Less Popular than Cheney
Electoral Projections Done Right: SurveyUSA: Palin's Speech Comparable to Obama's
Electoral Projections Done Right: Swing District Congressmen Doomed Bailout
Electoral Projections Done Right: The <span style="font-style: italic;">Next</span> Next President
Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 9/18: Obama Regains the Lead
Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 9/5
Electoral Projections Done Right: Why Voters Thought Obama Won
Electoral Projections Done Right: Wrapping Up the Conventions – What Did We Learn?
First Look At The New Electoral Map
Guess Who's a Celebrity Now?
How You Know It's Crunch Time
In Alaska, Everyone's An Oil Baron
Intrade Betting is Suspicious
Is It Really About Race? Some Evidence from North Carolina.
Is Washoe County, Nevada About To Flip Blue?
Lipstick
McCain Doubling Down on Debate?
McCain Is Stuck With Palin
McCain's Mistake?
Memo to Joe Biden: Let Palin Talk
More Bailout Thoughts
More Media
Morning Musings
News Accounts May Overstate Public Opposition to Bailout
Nightmare on Wall Street?
No Actual Bearcats Were Harmed in the Making of This Post
Obama Needs Better Ads
Obama Pulls Ahead in Electoral College Projection
Ohio Early Voting Update
On Dumping Palin
On Race-Based Voting
On the Road: Albuquerque/Santa Fe, New Mexico
On the Road: Battleground States of America
On the Road: Boulder, Colorado
On the Road: Carson City, Nevada
On the Road: Colorado Springs, Colorado
On the Road: Denver, Colorado
On the Road: Des Moines, Iowa
On the Road: Durango/Cortez, Colorado
On the Road: Española, New Mexico
On the Road: Gallup, New Mexico
On the Road: Grand Junction, Colorado
On the Road: Las Vegas, Nevada
On the Road: Minden, Nevada
On the Road: Omaha, Nebraska
On the Road: Reno, Nevada
Oops
Outside-the-Box Ad Moves Voter Sentiment
Palin's Favorability Numbers Eroding
Palin's Goal Tonight: No Potatoe
Palin's Overreach
Palin's Speech: Second Thoughts
Patience, Poll-Watchers
Pelosi Tips the Scales?
Pollopoly
Post-Convention Six-Pack
Presidential Debate Liveblog #1: Live From Oxford
Presidential Debate Liveblog #2: Live From Oxford
Presidential Debate Liveblog #3: Live From Oxford
Presidential Debate Liveblog #4: Live From Oxford
Presidential Debate Post-Mortem: Live From Oxford
RCP and the R2K Tracking Poll
Real Credibility Problems
Remains Of The Day
Response Bias and the Shy Tory Factor
Road to 270: Alabama
Road to 270: Arkansas
Road to 270: Iowa
Road to 270: Massachusetts
Road to 270: Minnesota
Road to 270: Nebraska
Road to 270: Rhode Island
Road to 270: Utah
Ron Paul To Appear on Montana Ballot
Sarah Palin Is Not a Hockey Mom
Sarah Palin: Compassionate Conservative?
Selzer & Co: Correction on Cellphones
Senate Polling Update, 9/20
Senate Polling Weekly Update, 9/2
Senate Projections, 9/28
St. Paul, Kinda Day One
St. Paul: Thursday Night Liveblog #1
St. Paul: Thursday Night Liveblog #2: John McCain
St. Paul: Tuesday Night Liveblog
St. Paul: Tuesday Night Liveblog #2
St. Paul: Wednesday Night Liveblog
St. Paul: Wednesday Night Liveblog #2: Romney & Huck
St. Paul: Wednesday Night Liveblog #3: Rudy
St. Paul: Wednesday Night Liveblog #4: Palin
State of the Race: Is McCain In Trouble?
The Debates: Somebody's Wrong
The Dow Rebounds
The Dow Rebounds
The Essential Difference
The Fall Campaign – Oh, It’s On
The Media Has Been Thrown Off Its Game
The Mommy Quotient
The Road To McCain Runs Through Palin
The Tongue Jut
Today's Polls, 9/1
Today's Polls, 9/10
Today's Polls, 9/11
Today's Polls, 9/12
Today's Polls, 9/13
Today's Polls, 9/14
Today's Polls, 9/15
Today's Polls, 9/16
Today's Polls, 9/17
Today's Polls, 9/19
Today's Polls, 9/2
Today's Polls, 9/20
Today's Polls, 9/21
Today's Polls, 9/22
Today's Polls, 9/23
Today's Polls, 9/24
Today's Polls, 9/25
Today's Polls, 9/26
Today's Polls, 9/27
Today's Polls, 9/28
Today's Polls, 9/29
Today's Polls, 9/3
Today's Polls, 9/30
Today's Polls, 9/6
Today's Polls, 9/7
Today's Polls, 9/8
Today's Polls, 9/9
Was Obama's <strike>50</strike> 22-State Strategy a Mistake?
What Obama Accomplished at the Debate
What's Wrong With This Sentence?
What's Wrong With the Battleground Poll?
What's the Matter with Michigan?
Live From St. Paul, It’s A… Convention?
Open Discussion: The Convention Bounce Adjustment
Sarah Palin: Compassionate Conservative?
What's Wrong With This Sentence?
What’s Wrong With This Sentence?
Today’s Polls, 9/1
St. Paul, Kinda Day One
The Essential Difference
Today’s Polls, 9/2
Ohio Early Voting Update
Senate Polling Weekly Update, 9/2
St. Paul: Tuesday Night Liveblog
St. Paul: Tuesday Night Liveblog #2
Palin’s Goal Tonight: No Potatoe
Today’s Polls, 9/3
In Alaska, Everyone’s An Oil Baron
Guess Who’s a Celebrity Now?
The Fall Campaign – Oh, It’s On
Palin’s Overreach
St. Paul: Wednesday Night Liveblog
St. Paul: Wednesday Night Liveblog #2: Romney & Huck
St. Paul: Wednesday Night Liveblog #3: Rudy
St. Paul: Wednesday Night Liveblog #4: Palin
Palin’s Speech: Second Thoughts
A Great Speech, For Both Bases
Cognitive Dissonance
The Next Next President
Today’s Polls, 9/4
All Your Base Are Belong to Her
SurveyUSA: Palin’s Speech Comparable to Obama’s
St. Paul: Thursday Night Liveblog #1
St. Paul: Thursday Night Liveblog #2: John McCain
Post-Convention Six-Pack
Crackin’ a Trackin’ Poll
Palin, Biden Less Popular than Cheney
Today’s Polls, 9/5
Wrapping Up the Conventions – What Did We Learn?
Today’s Polls, 9/6
Sarah Palin Is Not a Hockey Mom
Today’s Polls, 9/7
Patience, Poll-Watchers
Cracking a Tracking Poll: Theory and Practice
Obama Needs Better Ads
Response Bias and the Shy Tory Factor
Today’s Polls, 9/8
Did McCain Really Get the Bigger Bounce?
First Look At The New Electoral Map
Bonus Polling Update, 9/8
Road to 270: Massachusetts
The Mommy Quotient
Ron Paul To Appear on Montana Ballot
Road to 270: Alabama
Today’s Polls, 9/9
Are Pollsters Oversampling Republicans?
Is It Really About Race? Some Evidence from North Carolina.
Lipstick
Road to 270: Arkansas
‘Lipstick’ Ad Doesn’t Move Focus Group’s Votes
Today’s Polls, 9/10
The Road To McCain Runs Through Palin
What’s the Matter with Michigan?
Pollopoly
Today’s Polls, 9/11
On the Road: Battleground States of America
Today’s Polls, 9/12
No Actual Bearcats Were Harmed in the Making of This Post
Road to 270: Minnesota
On the Road: Minden, Nevada
The Media Has Been Thrown Off Its Game
Today’s Polls, 9/13
Was Obama’s 50 22-State Strategy a Mistake?
On the Road: Carson City, Nevada
Today’s Polls, 9/14
Dems Must Give Voters Explicit Permission To Like Palin
Nightmare on Wall Street?
On the Road: Reno, Nevada
Today’s Polls, 9/15
Palin’s Favorability Numbers Eroding
538’s Battlegrounds as of Mid-September
Today’s Polls, 9/16
On the Road: Las Vegas, Nevada
Morning Musings
Today’s Polls, 9/17
On the Road: Gallup, New Mexico
State of the Race: Is McCain In Trouble?
Colorado Rates as Most Important State
Obama Pulls Ahead in Electoral College Projection
Today’s Polls, 9/18: Obama Regains the Lead
Outside-the-Box Ad Moves Voter Sentiment
The Dow Rebounds
12th Amendment Update: Tie Probability Continues to Increase
Bad Math and the Bradley Effect
The Dow Rebounds
On the Road: Española, New Mexico
Today’s Polls, 9/19
On the Road: Albuquerque/Santa Fe, New Mexico
Estimating the Cellphone Effect: 2.8 2.2 Points
Today’s Polls, 9/20
On Race-Based Voting
Senate Polling Update, 9/20
On the Road: Durango/Cortez, Colorado
On the Road: Durango/Cortez, Colorado
BREAKING: Obama Campaign Organizers Trying To Win Election Instead of Get You Yard Signs
BREAKING: Obama Campaign Organizers Trying To Win Election Instead of Get You Yard Signs
Today’s Polls, 9/21
Allocating the Undecideds
On the Road: Grand Junction, Colorado
RCP and the R2K Tracking Poll
Today’s Polls, 9/22
The Debates: Somebody’s Wrong
Is Washoe County, Nevada About To Flip Blue?
Debates May Not Be Decisive After All
On the Road: Colorado Springs, Colorado
Road to 270: Iowa
Oops
Today’s Polls, 9/23
Intrade Betting is Suspicious
On the Road: Boulder, Colorado
Today’s Polls, 9/24
Remains Of The Day
AM Trackers Suggest Poor Reaction to McCain Announcement
On the Road: Denver, Colorado
Today’s Polls, 9/25
Selzer & Co: Correction on Cellphones
McCain Doubling Down on Debate?
Ann Selzer on Youth & Minority Turnout
On the Road: Omaha, Nebraska
Today’s Polls, 9/26
Road to 270: Nebraska
McCain’s Mistake?
On the Road: Des Moines, Iowa
Debate Goals
Presidential Debate Liveblog #1: Live From Oxford
Presidential Debate Liveblog #2: Live From Oxford
Presidential Debate Liveblog #3: Live From Oxford
Presidential Debate Liveblog #4: Live From Oxford
Presidential Debate Post-Mortem: Live From Oxford
Why Voters Thought Obama Won
How You Know It’s Crunch Time
Today’s Polls, 9/27
Senate Projections, 9/28
Today’s Polls, 9/28
McCain Is Stuck With Palin
Road to 270: Rhode Island
News Accounts May Overstate Public Opposition to Bailout
Big Media Me
Memo to Joe Biden: Let Palin Talk
Swing District Congressmen Doomed Bailout
More Bailout Thoughts
Pelosi Tips the Scales?
Today’s Polls, 9/29
Road to 270: Utah
What’s Wrong With the Battleground Poll?
On Dumping Palin
More Media
Today’s Polls, 9/30
"Real" America Looks Different to Palin, Obama
1-in-10,000,000
21-2
538 Goes Mobile
538 on The Colbert Report
538's Battlegrounds as of Mid-October
<img src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3177/2789218680_9133fff4c4_o.png" /> Field Poll Shows Close Call on Gay Marriage Ban
<img src=http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3177/2789218680_9133fff4c4_o.png> Did McCain Just Walk Into a Trap?
A Brief Interview With Chairman Dean
A Pollster Responds
AM Polls Show Surprisingly Large Leads for Obama
An Invitation To Michael Barone
Anatomy of a Polling Disaster
Another Way to Look at McCain's Odds
Are McCain's Ads "Dangerous"?
Are the Polls Lowballing Jim Martin (GA-Sen)?
Ayers Attacks Piquing Curiosity, But Perhaps Little Else
Bad Spin Watch: Drudge Touts Weeks-Old, Web-Based Poll
Bradley Effect? Or Elephant Effect?
BrettMarty.com
Busy, Busy, Busy
Debate May Have Helped Obama
Debategate
Does McCain Have Cooties?
Dueling Minnesota Polls
Election Night Preview with Dan Rather
Electoral Projections Done Right: CBS/NYT Poll Preempt
Electoral Projections Done Right: If The Bradley Effect is Gone, What Happened To It?
Electoral Projections Done Right: Mini Polling Update
Electoral Projections Done Right: Obama Dominating Among Early Voters in Five Swing States
Electoral Projections Done Right: On the Road: Big Stone Gap, Virginia
Electoral Projections Done Right: On the Road: Columbus, Ohio
Electoral Projections Done Right: On the Road: Toledo, Ohio
Electoral Projections Done Right: Religulous
Electoral Projections Done Right: Road to 270: Florida
Electoral Projections Done Right: Road to 270: Oregon
Electoral Projections Done Right: Senate Projections, 10/14
Electoral Projections Done Right: Senate Projections, 10/20
Electoral Projections Done Right: Senate Projections, 10/24
Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/1
Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/13
Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/14
Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/6
Electoral Projections Done Right: Uncommitteds and Persuadables in Historical Perspective
Electoral Projections Done Right: Voter Registration in North Carolina
Florida Flashback
General Powell Endorses Obama
Guest Column: Will Bin Laden Strike Again?
How The West Wasn't Won
In Contrast to House, Few Signs of Electoral Politics in Senate Bailout Vote
In Georgia, Small Improvements in Black Voter Participation May Make Big Difference
In Oregon, Turnout is Down, But Especially in Red Counties
Irrational Exuberance in Arizona?
Is Drudge Priming a McCain "Reboot" Narrative?
McCain Miami Rally, Getting Ugly Down Here
McCain and Michigan
McCain's 10-Day Plan
McCain's Mountain of a Problem
Must Reads
Nashville Debate Liveblog #1
Nashville Debate Liveblog #2
Nashville Debate Liveblog #3
Nate with Dan Rather, and Keith Olbermann
Nerds Gone Wild!
New York Times Doesn’t Think North Carolina Is a Tossup
Obama Passes The Rove Threshold?
Obama Projects 269 Electoral Votes Even With Six-Point Cushion
Obamarama Liveblog
Omaha, Nebraska’s One Electoral Vote Is In Play
On the Road: Bloomington, Indiana
On the Road: Charlotte, North Carolina
On the Road: Charlottesville, Virginia
On the Road: Dueling Rallies, Ohio
On the Road: Marietta, Ohio
On the Road: Miami, Florida
On the Road: Morgantown, "West By-God Virginia"
On the Road: New Albany, Indiana
On the Road: Northern Virginia
On the Road: Philadelphia Suburbs, Pennsylvania
On the Road: Raleigh, North Carolina
On the Road: Richmond, Virginia
On the Road: St. Louis County, Missouri
On the Road: Tippecanoe County, Indiana
On the Road: Troy, Ohio
On the Road: Western Pennsylvania
On the Road: Wilmington, North Carolina
POLL SHOCK: 51 OBAMA, 49 MCCAIN WITH LIKELY TODDLERS
Patience
Post-Debate Thoughts, or Lack Thereof
Post-VP Debate Thoughts
Prop 8 a Toss-Up
Quick Notes
RCP Follow-Up
Road to 270: Alaska
Road to 270: Arizona
Road to 270: California
Road to 270: Connecticut
Road to 270: Delaware
Road to 270: Idaho
Road to 270: Illinois
Road to 270: Kansas
Road to 270: Kentucky
Road to 270: Louisiana
Road to 270: Maryland
Road to 270: Missouri
Road to 270: Montana
Road to 270: Nevada
Road to 270: New Hampshire
Road to 270: New Jersey
Road to 270: New Mexico
Road to 270: New York
Road to 270: North Dakota
Road to 270: South Carolina
Road to 270: South Dakota
Road to 270: Tennessee
Road to 270: Texas
Road to 270: Vermont
Road to 270: Washington
Road to 270: West Virginia
Say It to My Face Debate Liveblog #1
Say It to My Face Debate Liveblog #2
Say It to My Face Debate Liveblog #3
Say It to My Face Debate Liveblog #4
Say It to My Face Debate Post-Mortem
Scrap the Squigglys
Senate Polling Update, 10/4
Senate Projections, 10/31
Senate Projections, 10/9
Senate Projections, Baked Alaska Edition
Some Likely Voter Models are Suspect
Sorry, Jim, the PUMAs are Dead
Teaser
Technical Difficulties...
Ted Stevens Found Guilty on All Counts
The Big Empty
The Black Turnout Surge, Already In Progress
The Bradley Effect, Revisited
The Myth of the 'Lag'
The Number That Explains It All
The Three Ashleys
The Undecideds
The Weather
The Wikipedian Candidate
Today's Polls, 10/10
Today's Polls, 10/11
Today's Polls, 10/12
Today's Polls, 10/15
Today's Polls, 10/16
Today's Polls, 10/17
Today's Polls, 10/18
Today's Polls, 10/19
Today's Polls, 10/2
Today's Polls, 10/20
Today's Polls, 10/21
Today's Polls, 10/22
Today's Polls, 10/23: McCain on Life Support
Today's Polls, 10/24
Today's Polls, 10/25
Today's Polls, 10/26
Today's Polls, 10/27
Today's Polls, 10/28
Today's Polls, 10/29
Today's Polls, 10/3
Today's Polls, 10/30
Today's Polls, 10/31
Today's Polls, 10/4
Today's Polls, 10/5
Today's Polls, 10/7
Today's Polls, 10/8
Today's Polls, 10/9
Tonight
Tracking Poll Primer
Trick or Treat
VP Debate a Ratings Winner
Vice-Presidential Debate Liveblog #1: Live From Wash U.
Vice-Presidential Debate Liveblog #2: Live From Wash U.
Vice-Presidential Debate Post-Mortem, Live From π in the Loop
What State Do You Want to See Polled?
What Would 'Tightening' Look Like?
What is Obama's Ceiling?
What's Different About This Map?
What's Wrong With This Picture? (a.k.a. Nate the Poll Nazi Strikes Again)
Where McCain Lost It
Why It (Probably) Won't Work
Why You Don't Bluff
Yes, Virginia, You Are Obama's Firewall
The Tongue Jut
What Obama Accomplished at the Debate
Today’s Polls, 10/1
Washington Post Chat Starts Momentarily
Debategate
Nate with Dan Rather, and Keith Olbermann
In Contrast to House, Few Signs of Electoral Politics in Senate Bailout Vote
Real Credibility Problems
Obama Projects 269 Electoral Votes Even With Six-Point Cushion
RCP Follow-Up
Technical Difficulties…
Today’s Polls, 10/2
A Brief Interview With Chairman Dean
Vice-Presidential Debate Liveblog #1: Live From Wash U.
Vice-Presidential Debate Liveblog #2: Live From Wash U.
Post-VP Debate Thoughts
Vice-Presidential Debate Post-Mortem, Live From π in the Loop
McCain and Michigan
VP Debate a Ratings Winner
On the Road: St. Louis County, Missouri
Today’s Polls, 10/3
Dueling Minnesota Polls
Today’s Polls, 10/4
Senate Polling Update, 10/4
Omaha, Nebraska’s One Electoral Vote Is In Play
New York Times Doesn’t Think North Carolina Is a Tossup
Why It (Probably) Won’t Work
Today’s Polls, 10/5
Road to 270: Alaska
On the Road: Tippecanoe County, Indiana
In Georgia, Small Improvements in Black Voter Participation May Make Big Difference
Road to 270: California
What’s Different About This Map?
On the Road: Bloomington, Indiana
Today’s Polls, 10/6
Today’s Polls, 10/7
What State Do You Want to See Polled?
Tonight
Nashville Debate Liveblog #1
Nashville Debate Liveblog #2
Nashville Debate Liveblog #3
BrettMarty.com
Post-Debate Thoughts, or Lack Thereof
What is Obama’s Ceiling?
Today’s Polls, 10/8
21-2
Uncommitteds and Persuadables in Historical Perspective
Senate Projections, 10/9
On the Road: New Albany, Indiana
Today’s Polls, 10/9
Why You Don’t Bluff
Teaser
Ayers Attacks Piquing Curiosity, But Perhaps Little Else
Debate May Have Helped Obama
Guest Column: Will Bin Laden Strike Again?
An Invitation To Michael Barone
On the Road: Dueling Rallies, Ohio
Today’s Polls, 10/10
Does McCain Have Cooties?
Road to 270: Texas
Today’s Polls, 10/11
Did McCain Just Walk Into a Trap?
On the Road: Troy, Ohio
Are McCain’s Ads “Dangerous”?
Patience
Today’s Polls, 10/12
Another Way to Look at McCain’s Odds
Road to 270: Tennessee
Is Drudge Priming a McCain “Reboot” Narrative?
Mini Polling Update
Road to 270: South Dakota
On the Road: Columbus, Ohio
If The Bradley Effect is Gone, What Happened To It?
Today’s Polls, 10/13
Religulous
Road to 270: Florida
Voter Registration in North Carolina
Senate Projections, 10/14
Road to 270: Oregon
On the Road: Toledo, Ohio
CBS/NYT Poll Preempt
Today’s Polls, 10/14
Road to 270: Louisiana
Obama Dominating Among Early Voters in Five Swing States
Road to 270: Maryland
Today’s Polls, 10/15
Say It to My Face Debate Liveblog #1
Say It to My Face Debate Liveblog #2
Say It to My Face Debate Liveblog #3
Say It to My Face Debate Liveblog #4
Say It to My Face Debate Post-Mortem
Where McCain Lost It
On the Road: Marietta, Ohio
538’s Battlegrounds as of Mid-October
Road to 270: Montana
Today’s Polls, 10/16
On the Road: Morgantown, “West By-God Virginia”
Scrap the Squigglys
Scrap the Squigglys
Bad Spin Watch: Drudge Touts Weeks-Old, Web-Based Poll
Busy, Busy, Busy
Today’s Polls, 10/17
On the Road: Western Pennsylvania
Road to 270: Connecticut
Today’s Polls, 10/18
“Real” America Looks Different to Palin, Obama
Road to 270: Kansas
General Powell Endorses Obama
Today’s Polls, 10/19
Senate Projections, 10/20
Exceptionally Tacky Omnibus Apology
The Wikipedian Candidate
On the Road: Philadelphia Suburbs, Pennsylvania
Today’s Polls, 10/20
Sorry, Jim, the PUMAs are Dead
POLL SHOCK: 51 OBAMA, 49 MCCAIN WITH LIKELY TODDLERS
Tracking Poll Primer
Today’s Polls, 10/21
On the Road: Northern Virginia
McCain Brings Hope to Pennsylvania
Road to 270: Idaho
Must Reads
The Bradley Effect, Revisited
Road to 270: New York
Some Likely Voter Models are Suspect
On the Road: Richmond, Virginia
Today’s Polls, 10/22
538 Goes Mobile
Road to 270: Arizona
AM Polls Show Surprisingly Large Leads for Obama
Prop 8 a Toss-Up
Obama Passes The Rove Threshold?
What’s Wrong With This Picture? (a.k.a. Nate the Poll Nazi Strikes Again)
On the Road: Charlottesville, Virginia
Today’s Polls, 10/23: McCain on Life Support
Senate Projections, 10/24
How The West Wasn’t Won
The Number That Explains It All
Road to 270: Vermont
Road to 270: Kentucky
Today’s Polls, 10/24
On the Road: Big Stone Gap, Virginia
Road to 270: New Jersey
Road to 270: North Dakota
McCain’s 10-Day Plan
Today’s Polls, 10/25
Road to 270: South Carolina
A Pollster Responds
538 on The Colbert Report
Today’s Polls, 10/26
Bradley Effect? Or Elephant Effect?
On the Road: Charlotte, North Carolina
Yes, Virginia, You Are Obama’s Firewall
The Three Ashleys
Ted Stevens Found Guilty on All Counts
Today’s Polls, 10/27
What Would ‘Tightening’ Look Like?
Road to 270: New Mexico
The Weather
Senate Projections, Baked Alaska Edition
1-in-10,000,000
Road to 270: Delaware
Nerds Gone Wild!
On the Road: Raleigh, North Carolina
Today’s Polls, 10/28
The Black Turnout Surge, Already In Progress
Road to 270: New Hampshire
The Undecideds
In Oregon, Turnout is Down, But Especially in Red Counties
Road to 270: West Virginia
Florida Flashback
McCain Miami Rally, Getting Ugly Down Here
The Myth of the 'Lag'
The Myth of the ‘Lag’
Obamarama Liveblog
On the Road: Wilmington, North Carolina
On the Road: Wilmington, North Carolina
Today’s Polls, 10/29
Road to 270: Illinois
Are the Polls Lowballing Jim Martin (GA-Sen)?
Anatomy of a Polling Disaster
Road to 270: Washington
Election Night Preview with Dan Rather
Today’s Polls, 10/30
Field Poll Shows Close Call on Gay Marriage Ban
Road to 270: Nevada
Senate Projections, 10/31
McCain's Mountain of a Problem
McCain’s Mountain of a Problem
On the Road: Miami, Florida
Irrational Exuberance in Arizona?
The Big Empty
Quick Notes
10:06 PM Update
2,077,765
2010 Senate Rankings, Part II: Races #11-#20
3??
538 RSS Feed Widget
72-Hour Program?
8:15 PM Update
A Few More Hillary Hypotheticals
A Few Notes From the National Exit Poll
A Few Notes on the Media
AP Calls Florida for Obama
AP Calls Maryland House Seat for Dem
AP Calls New Hampshire
Alaska Update: Begich Leads By 1,061, Then 1,022
Amid Epidemic of Challenges, Coleman Appears to Expand Lead
An Interview with John Ziegler on the Zogby "Push Poll"
Ballot Challenges On Rise in Minnesota
Ballot Design Quiz
Barack Obama Crushed John McCain in Nevada
Barack Obama President-Elect of the United States
Barack Obama Wins Indiana
Barack Obama Wins Ohio
Begich Goes Into Lead by Three Votes
Begich Leads By 814 Going Into Thursday
Begich Will Be Alaska's First U.S. Senate Democrat Since Gravel
Big City Barack
Brett Marty's Gut Wrong
Brett Marty's Ten Predictions -- From the Gut
Chicago Event Tonight
Chicago Tomorrow
Chicago, The Day After
Chris Matthews Staffing Up for Probable Senate Run in 2010
Chris Shays Loses in Connecticut
Coleman Challenges Increasing Exponentially
Coleman Leads Franken By 136 Votes After Thursday Count
Coleman's Lead Down to 120 as Challenges Skyrocket
Coming Attractions
Dartmouth Study: Minnesota Undervotes Should Favor Franken
Dean Defends Lieberman Decision, Speaks of "Mandate for Reconciliation"
Dear Democrats: If You Must Blame, Blame Obama
Dems Gain One Governor's Chair
Did Talk Radio Kill Conservatism?
Dubious in Delaware
Election Night Thread, 6:00 PM
Election Night Viewers' Guide
Electoral Projections Done Right: 2010 Senate Rankings, Part I: Races #21-#35
Electoral Projections Done Right: Democrats Net Two Secretary of State Seats
Electoral Projections Done Right: Franken's Odds of Winning Recount May Be Long -- or Short
Electoral Projections Done Right: Live From Chicago, Transition Press Conference #1
Electoral Projections Done Right: Minnesota Recount: Number of Discrepancies May Be Low
Electoral Projections Done Right: More Minnesota Madness
Electoral Projections Done Right: Obama Wins Omaha, NE Electoral Vote; Final Tally Looks to be 365-173
Electoral Projections Done Right: Obama's Electoral Cushion
Electoral Projections Done Right: Prop 8 Myths
Electoral Projections Done Right: Senator, You Can Have My Answer Now, If You Like
Electoral Projections Done Right: Uncounted Votes May Push Begich Past Stevens
Electoral Projections Done Right: Whistling Past Bubba
FINAL Senate Projection, 11/4: 7-8 Democratic Pickups Likely
For Obama, Will Familiarity Erode Contempt?
Franken Pulls Ahead; Georgia Is Screwy; Omaha Call Premature
Friday eCommerce Interlude
Georgia Runoff On Our Mind
Georgia Runoff Will Be Tough on Pollsters
Georgia Senate Race Headed For Runoff
Georgia: Martin Stuck in Neutral?
Google Traffic Suggests McCain Not Grabbing Voters' Attention
Grant Park Woes
Ground Game, and What to Expect
Hagan Beats Dole in North Carolina
House Effects in Action
How Early Voting Changed the Game in 2008
Illinois: Let the People Decide
In Nation's Capital, Pandemonium After Obama Victory
Indiana II...
Indiana...
Is Dixville Notch Predictive?
Is Jackson Jr. Illinois' Choice?
Is Secretary of State a Stepping Stone?
Matthews Denies Report
McCain's Concession Speech
Meta
Mini-Sota Update, Day #7
Mini-Sota Update, Day 6
Minnesota Canvassing Board Punts on Rejected Absentee Ballots
Minnesota Challenged Ballot Examples
Minnesota Challenged Ballot Primer
Minnesota Senate Update; Plus Chambliss Barely Over 50%
Minnesota: Is Franken Being Too Nice?
More Updates on MT, MO, NC, IN
Musgrave in Colorado Getting Whupped
Napolitano Reportedly Picked for Homeland Security, Casting Doubt on Potential Senate Run
National Polls Magically Converge!
Obama Likely to Win Omaha Electoral Vote
Obama Marches Toward Victory
Obama Outperforms Kerry Among Virtually All Demographics
Obama Popular Vote Margin Largest Ever for Non-Incumbent
Obama Wins Virginia
Obama to Become Next President
Obama's Agenda & The Difference Between Tactics & Strategy
Obama's Organizers in Georgia, But Not Obama
Omaha
On Pennsylvania Being "In Play"
On the Road: Atlanta, Georgia
On the Road: I-4 Corridor, Florida
Outstanding States
Pennsylvania Sanity Check
Penultimate Alaska Update; Uncalled Congressional Races
Projection: Franken to Win Recount by 27 Votes
Reassurance for Dems in NBC/WSJ Survey
Republicans Likely to Hold MS-Sen, KY-Sen
Road to 270: Colorado
Road to 270: Georgia
Road to 270: Michigan
Road to 270: Ohio
Road to 270: Pennsylvania
Road to 270: Virginia
Road to 270: Wisconsin
Runoffs All About Enthusiasm, GOTV
Senate Projections, 11/1
Site Note
Stevens' Lead Shrinks to 971 Votes, With Many Yet to be Counted
Tallahassee, Florida, Moments Ago
Technical Note
Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls
The Cellphone Effect, Continued
The Contact Gap: Proof of the Importance of the Ground Game?
The Drama of the Night is Now the Senate
The Final Words (For Now) on Zieglergate
The Georgia Senate Race
The Ghosts of 1993
The Popular Vote
The Population and the Popular Vote
Today's Polls and Final Election Projection: Obama 349, McCain 189
Today's Polls, 11/1
Today's Polls, 11/2: Afternoon Edition
Today's Polls, 11/3 (PM Edition)
Today's Polls, 3 AM Edition (11/3)
Tom Udall Wins New Mexico Senate Seat
Virginia...
Want to See Something Funny?
Was 2008 A Realigning Election? Ask Me In Eight Years.
What A McCain Win Looks Like...
What In The Hell Happened in Alaska?
What Remains Uncalled
What Will We Know by 7 PM?
What's Holding Up Missouri?
What's Left - Senate Version
Why The Networks Haven't Called Missouri
Wow
Zogby Engages in Apparent Push Polling for Right-Wing Website
[UPDATED] In Minnesota Recount, Both Candidates are Losers Thus Far
[UPDATED] On First Day of Recount, Franken Gains Net of 43 Votes on Coleman
[UPDATED] State Pegs Coleman Lead at 172 Votes; Challenges Increase for Fourth Straight Day
Today’s Polls, 10/31
Road to 270: Missouri
Trick or Treat
Pennsylvania Sanity Check
Senate Projections, 11/1
Road to 270: Georgia
Technical Note
Brett Marty’s Ten Predictions — From the Gut
Road to 270: Wisconsin
Today’s Polls, 11/1
72-Hour Program?
On Pennsylvania Being “In Play”
Road to 270: Michigan
Tallahassee, Florida, Moments Ago
Road to 270: Pennsylvania
House Effects in Action
Today’s Polls, 11/2: Afternoon Edition
Google Traffic Suggests McCain Not Grabbing Voters’ Attention
Road to 270: Colorado
What A McCain Win Looks Like…
538 RSS Feed Widget
The Cellphone Effect, Continued
Reassurance for Dems in NBC/WSJ Survey
Today’s Polls, 3 AM Edition (11/3)
Site Note
Coming Attractions
On the Road: I-4 Corridor, Florida
Election Night Viewers’ Guide
National Polls Magically Converge!
Road to 270: Ohio
Obama Marches Toward Victory
Road to 270: Virginia
Today’s Polls, 11/3 (PM Edition)
On the Road: Atlanta, Georgia
Chicago Tomorrow
Is Dixville Notch Predictive?
FINAL Senate Projection, 11/4: 7-8 Democratic Pickups Likely
Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls
2,077,765
Today’s Polls and Final Election Projection: Obama 349, McCain 189
What Will We Know by 7 PM?
How Early Voting Changed the Game in 2008
Election Night Thread, 6:00 PM
Indiana…
Ground Game, and What to Expect
Indiana II…
8:15 PM Update
Hagan Beats Dole in North Carolina
AP Calls New Hampshire
Grant Park Woes
Meta
Virginia…
The Georgia Senate Race
Want to See Something Funny?
Brett Marty’s Gut Wrong
Tom Udall Wins New Mexico Senate Seat
Barack Obama Wins Ohio
Obama to Become Next President
Chris Shays Loses in Connecticut
10:06 PM Update
Republicans Likely to Hold MS-Sen, KY-Sen
The Drama of the Night is Now the Senate
3??
Omaha
Musgrave in Colorado Getting Whupped
Obama Wins Virginia
AP Calls Florida for Obama
Barack Obama President-Elect of the United States
McCain’s Concession Speech
Wow
What’s Left – Senate Version
Outstanding States
A Few Notes From the National Exit Poll
More Updates on MT, MO, NC, IN
Barack Obama Wins Indiana
Minnesota Senate Update; Plus Chambliss Barely Over 50%
Barack Obama Crushed John McCain in Nevada
Dems Gain One Governor’s Chair
Franken Pulls Ahead; Georgia Is Screwy; Omaha Call Premature
In Nation’s Capital, Pandemonium After Obama Victory
Georgia Senate Race Headed For Runoff
Chicago, The Day After
The Popular Vote
Site Problems
What In The Hell Happened in Alaska?
Obama Outperforms Kerry Among Virtually All Demographics
Chicago Event Tonight
Obama Likely to Win Omaha Electoral Vote
What Remains Uncalled
Senator, You Can Have My Answer Now, If You Like
Live From Chicago, Transition Press Conference #1
Obama Wins Omaha, NE Electoral Vote; Final Tally Looks to be 365-173
AP Calls Maryland House Seat for Dem
Uncounted Votes May Push Begich Past Stevens
The Contact Gap: Proof of the Importance of the Ground Game?
Big City Barack
Obama’s Electoral Cushion
2010 Senate Rankings, Part I: Races #21-#35
Franken’s Odds of Winning Recount May Be Long — or Short
Whistling Past Bubba
More Minnesota Madness
Democrats Net Two Secretary of State Seats
Minnesota Recount: Number of Discrepancies May Be Low
Prop 8 Myths
Ballot Design Quiz
Was 2008 A Realigning Election? Ask Me In Eight Years.
Is Jackson Jr. Illinois’ Choice?
Stevens’ Lead Shrinks to 971 Votes, With Many Yet to be Counted
Begich Goes Into Lead by Three Votes
Begich Leads By 814 Going Into Thursday
Georgia Runoff Will Be Tough on Pollsters
A Few More Hillary Hypotheticals
Runoffs All About Enthusiasm, GOTV
Dartmouth Study: Minnesota Undervotes Should Favor Franken
Alaska Update: Begich Leads By 1,061, Then 1,022
Is Secretary of State a Stepping Stone?
What’s Holding Up Missouri?
A Few Notes on the Media
Why The Networks Haven’t Called Missouri
For Obama, Will Familiarity Erode Contempt?
Penultimate Alaska Update; Uncalled Congressional Races
Zogby Engages in Apparent Push Polling for Right-Wing Website
Dean Defends Lieberman Decision, Speaks of “Mandate for Reconciliation”
Begich Will Be Alaska’s First U.S. Senate Democrat Since Gravel
An Interview with John Ziegler on the Zogby “Push Poll”
Dear Democrats: If You Must Blame, Blame Obama
[UPDATED] In Minnesota Recount, Both Candidates are Losers Thus Far
[UPDATED] On First Day of Recount, Franken Gains Net of 43 Votes on Coleman
Napolitano Reportedly Picked for Homeland Security, Casting Doubt on Potential Senate Run
Did Talk Radio Kill Conservatism?
Minnesota: Is Franken Being Too Nice?
Coleman Leads Franken By 136 Votes After Thursday Count
Friday eCommerce Interlude
The Final Words (For Now) on Zieglergate
Ballot Challenges On Rise in Minnesota
Coleman’s Lead Down to 120 as Challenges Skyrocket
The Ghosts of 1993
Amid Epidemic of Challenges, Coleman Appears to Expand Lead
Projection: Franken to Win Recount by 27 Votes
Illinois: Let the People Decide
Coleman Challenges Increasing Exponentially
Dubious in Delaware
[UPDATED] State Pegs Coleman Lead at 172 Votes; Challenges Increase for Fourth Straight Day
Minnesota Challenged Ballot Primer
Georgia: Martin Stuck in Neutral?
Obama’s Agenda & The Difference Between Tactics & Strategy
Mini-Sota Update, Day 6
Obama Popular Vote Margin Largest Ever for Non-Incumbent
Minnesota Canvassing Board Punts on Rejected Absentee Ballots
Georgia Runoff On Our Mind
Mini-Sota Update, Day #7
Chris Matthews Staffing Up for Probable Senate Run in 2010
The Population and the Popular Vote
Matthews Denies Report
Minnesota Challenged Ballot Examples
2010 Senate Rankings, Part II: Races #11-#20
Obama's Organizers in Georgia, But Not Obama
Obama’s Organizers in Georgia, But Not Obama
2010 Senate Rankings, Revised and Extended
58 Better Than 59? (A Probably Stupid Theory)
88 Reasons Not to Move to New York
A Day Without Politics
A Passing Thought On Rick Warren
Appointed Senators Rarely Win Re-Election
Are the Republicans Still a National Party?
Bayh's Blue Dogs: Bane or Boon?
Blago Will Try To Seat Senator, But Reid Objects
Brett Favre Beats Lizard People
Clinton's Appointment Triggers Game of Electoral Chairs in New York
Clinton's Fresh Start
Coleman Not in Giving Mood on Absentees
Coleman Sues on Duplicate Ballot Claim, Seeking to Prevent Certification of Recount
Coleman v. Minnesota Canvassing Board
Colorado's Salazar To Head Interior, Creating Another Vacancy for Democrats
Colorado: Denver Mayor More Electable than Blue Dogs?
Dems' Generic Ballot Advantage Dwindling
Did Mel Martinez Just Do the GOP a Favor?
Fox News Finds Typo, Blames Liberal Conspiracy
Franken Appears Likely to Lead After Challenge Phase
Franken Claims to Have Lead of 35-50 Votes
Franken Maintains 48-Vote Lead
Franken May Be Ceding Ground on Absentee Ballots
Franken is Winning, and Coleman Knows It
Franken to Coleman: Where's The Beef?
Franken's Good Day Shifts Odds on Recount
Fridays with Ziegler
Georgia Senate Runoff 5 PM EST Update
Georgia Senate Runoff 6:45 PM EST Update
Georgia Senate Runoff Liveblog
Hold Your Horses, Minnesota
Illinois: What Happens Next
In Employee Free Choice Act, a Numbers Game for Labor
In Minnesota, Six Inches of Confusion
Kennedy Struggling To Win Over Key Demographic: Women
Like Smaller Government? How About 98 Senators?
Louisiana's 4th, 2008's Final Contested Election
Ludicrous
Mapping the New Congress
Mary Jo Kilroy Wins Ohio's 15th District
Mental Recession?
Minnesota Canvassing Board Sides with Franken on Two Key Issues, Sending Coleman to Court
Minnesota Lunchtime Update: It's Gonna Be Close
Minnesota May Be Heading Toward Resolution -- In Court
Minnesota State Canvassing Board Meets
Missing Ballots in Minneapolis?
Mommy, What's an Environmentalist?
More Evidence on Middle-Class Belt Tightening
NY-Sen: Where's Larry King When You Need Him?
Obama Approval Ratings Not Dented by Blagojevich Scandal
Obama FTW
On Making Mitch McConnell Wet His Pants
On The Importance of the Middle Class: Lessons of the Housing Bust
On Transition Website, Obama Promises More to Gay Community
Quick Thoughts from Kansas
Red States Gaining Ground, but Migration Slowing Down
Reid Has Few Ways to Block Burris Appointment
Reid's Constitutional Argument on Burris
Saxby Shows Republicans The Way Forward?
Senate Might Not Have Authority to Reject Blago Appointment
Statistical Models Now Show Coleman as Slight Favorite
Supremes Deny Coleman on Duplicate Ballots
The Auto Bailout Vote: a Preview of Coming Attractions?
The Blagojevich Fallout
The Mountain West: America's New Swing Region
The Wrong Ads and the Wright One
Tight in Louisiana
What Does Harry Reid Want?
What Jake Tapper Doesn't Know About What Obama Knew
What, No Oprah?
Who Are The Swing Senators?
You Are A Republican! A Socratic Dialogue on the Stimulus Bill
Ludicrous
Clinton’s Fresh Start
Statistical Models Now Show Coleman as Slight Favorite
Clinton’s Appointment Triggers Game of Electoral Chairs in New York
Georgia Senate Runoff 5 PM EST Update
Franken's Good Day Shifts Odds on Recount
Franken’s Good Day Shifts Odds on Recount
Georgia Senate Runoff 6:45 PM EST Update
Georgia Senate Runoff Liveblog
Saxby Shows Republicans The Way Forward?
Did Mel Martinez Just Do the GOP a Favor?
Missing Ballots in Minneapolis?
Who Are The Swing Senators?
Fridays with Ziegler
Quick Thoughts from Kansas
Louisiana’s 4th, 2008’s Final Contested Election
Minnesota May Be Heading Toward Resolution — In Court
Tight in Louisiana
Mary Jo Kilroy Wins Ohio’s 15th District
2010 Senate Rankings, Revised and Extended
58 Better Than 59? (A Probably Stupid Theory)
The Wrong Ads and the Wright One
The Blagojevich Fallout
What, No Oprah?
Illinois: What Happens Next
Senate Might Not Have Authority to Reject Blago Appointment
What Jake Tapper Doesn’t Know About What Obama Knew
The Mountain West: America’s New Swing Region
Dems’ Generic Ballot Advantage Dwindling
What Does Harry Reid Want?
Appointed Senators Rarely Win Re-Election
Minnesota State Canvassing Board Meets
Minnesota Canvassing Board Sides with Franken on Two Key Issues, Sending Coleman to Court
Minnesota Canvassing Board Sides with Franken on Two Key Issues, Sending Coleman to Court
Obama Approval Ratings Not Dented by Blagojevich Scandal
The Auto Bailout Vote: a Preview of Coming Attractions?
Bayh’s Blue Dogs: Bane or Boon?
On Making Mitch McConnell Wet His Pants
Colorado's Salazar To Head Interior, Creating Another Vacancy for Democrats
Colorado’s Salazar To Head Interior, Creating Another Vacancy for Democrats
Are the Republicans Still a National Party?
Coleman v. Minnesota Canvassing Board
NY-Sen: Where’s Larry King When You Need Him?
Hold Your Horses, Minnesota
88 Reasons Not to Move to New York
Brett Favre Beats Lizard People
Minnesota Lunchtime Update: It’s Gonna Be Close
In Minnesota, Six Inches of Confusion
Franken Appears Likely to Lead After Challenge Phase
Coleman Sues on Duplicate Ballot Claim, Seeking to Prevent Certification of Recount
Franken is Winning, and Coleman Knows It
Colorado: Denver Mayor More Electable than Blue Dogs?
Franken Claims to Have Lead of 35-50 Votes
In Employee Free Choice Act, a Numbers Game for Labor
Mental Recession?
Franken Maintains 48-Vote Lead
Fox News Finds Typo, Blames Liberal Conspiracy
Franken to Coleman: Where’s The Beef?
A Passing Thought On Rick Warren
Like Smaller Government? How About 98 Senators?
Mommy, What’s an Environmentalist?
Supremes Deny Coleman on Duplicate Ballots
A Day Without Politics
Red States Gaining Ground, but Migration Slowing Down
On Transition Website, Obama Promises More to Gay Community
Kennedy Struggling To Win Over Key Demographic: Women
Mapping the New Congress
You Are A Republican! A Socratic Dialogue on the Stimulus Bill
Coleman Not in Giving Mood on Absentees
On The Importance of the Middle Class: Lessons of the Housing Bust
Obama FTW
Blago Will Try To Seat Senator, But Reid Objects
Reid Has Few Ways to Block Burris Appointment
Franken May Be Ceding Ground on Absentee Ballots
Reid’s Constitutional Argument on Burris
More Evidence on Middle-Class Belt Tightening