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Explore 21,350 pages from fivethirtyeight.com preserved by the Internet Archive

September 2008

Sarah Palin: Compassionate Conservative?
St. Paul, Kinda Day One
Today's Polls, 9/1
What's Wrong With This Sentence?
Live From St. Paul, It’s A… Convention?
Open Discussion: The Convention Bounce Adjustment
Ohio Early Voting Update
Senate Polling Weekly Update, 9/2
St. Paul: Tuesday Night Liveblog
St. Paul: Tuesday Night Liveblog #2
The Essential Difference
Today's Polls, 9/2
St. Paul, Kinda Day One
Guess Who's a Celebrity Now?
In Alaska, Everyone's An Oil Baron
Palin's Goal Tonight: No Potatoe
Palin's Overreach
Palin's Speech: Second Thoughts
St. Paul: Wednesday Night Liveblog
St. Paul: Wednesday Night Liveblog #2: Romney & Huck
St. Paul: Wednesday Night Liveblog #3: Rudy
St. Paul: Wednesday Night Liveblog #4: Palin
The Fall Campaign – Oh, It’s On
Today's Polls, 9/3
St. Paul: Tuesday Night Liveblog
St. Paul: Tuesday Night Liveblog #2
A Great Speech, For Both Bases
All Your Base Are Belong to Her
Electoral Projections Done Right: <img src=http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3177/2789218680_9133fff4c4_o.png> Today's Polls, 9/4
Electoral Projections Done Right: Cognitive Dissonance
Electoral Projections Done Right: SurveyUSA: Palin's Speech Comparable to Obama's
Electoral Projections Done Right: The <span style="font-style: italic;">Next</span> Next President
St. Paul: Thursday Night Liveblog #1
St. Paul: Thursday Night Liveblog #2: John McCain
St. Paul: Wednesday Night Liveblog
St. Paul: Wednesday Night Liveblog #2: Romney & Huck
St. Paul: Wednesday Night Liveblog #3: Rudy
St. Paul: Wednesday Night Liveblog #4: Palin
Palin’s Speech: Second Thoughts
Cognitive Dissonance
The Next Next President
Today’s Polls, 9/4
SurveyUSA: Palin’s Speech Comparable to Obama’s
Electoral Projections Done Right: <img src=http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3177/2789218680_9133fff4c4_o.png> Crackin' a Trackin' Poll
Electoral Projections Done Right: Palin, Biden Less Popular than Cheney
Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 9/5
Electoral Projections Done Right: Wrapping Up the Conventions – What Did We Learn?
Post-Convention Six-Pack
St. Paul: Thursday Night Liveblog #1
St. Paul: Thursday Night Liveblog #2: John McCain
Crackin’ a Trackin’ Poll
Palin, Biden Less Popular than Cheney
Sarah Palin Is Not a Hockey Mom
Today's Polls, 9/6
Today’s Polls, 9/5
Wrapping Up the Conventions – What Did We Learn?
Cracking a Tracking Poll: Theory and Practice
Patience, Poll-Watchers
Today's Polls, 9/7
Bonus Polling Update, 9/8
Did McCain Really Get the Bigger Bounce?
First Look At The New Electoral Map
Obama Needs Better Ads
Response Bias and the Shy Tory Factor
Road to 270: Massachusetts
Today's Polls, 9/8
Cracking a Tracking Poll: Theory and Practice
Road to 270: Alabama
Ron Paul To Appear on Montana Ballot
The Mommy Quotient
Today's Polls, 9/9
Bonus Polling Update, 9/8
Road to 270: Massachusetts
'Lipstick' Ad Doesn't Move Focus Group's Votes
Are Pollsters Oversampling Republicans?
Is It Really About Race? Some Evidence from North Carolina.
Lipstick
Road to 270: Arkansas
Pollopoly
The Road To McCain Runs Through Palin
Today's Polls, 9/10
Today's Polls, 9/11
What's the Matter with Michigan?
‘Lipstick’ Ad Doesn’t Move Focus Group’s Votes
No Actual Bearcats Were Harmed in the Making of This Post
On the Road: Battleground States of America
Road to 270: Minnesota
Today's Polls, 9/12
On the Road: Minden, Nevada
The Media Has Been Thrown Off Its Game
Today's Polls, 9/13
On the Road: Carson City, Nevada
Today's Polls, 9/14
Was Obama's <strike>50</strike> 22-State Strategy a Mistake?
Was Obama’s 50 22-State Strategy a Mistake?
Dems Must Give Voters Explicit Permission To Like Palin
Nightmare on Wall Street?
On the Road: Reno, Nevada
Today's Polls, 9/15
538's Battlegrounds as of Mid-September
On the Road: Las Vegas, Nevada
Palin's Favorability Numbers Eroding
Today's Polls, 9/16
Morning Musings
Today's Polls, 9/17
Today’s Polls, 9/16
On the Road: Las Vegas, Nevada
Colorado Rates as Most Important State
Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 9/18: Obama Regains the Lead
Obama Pulls Ahead in Electoral College Projection
On the Road: Gallup, New Mexico
Outside-the-Box Ad Moves Voter Sentiment
State of the Race: Is McCain In Trouble?
Today’s Polls, 9/18: Obama Regains the Lead
12th Amendment Update: Tie Probability Continues to Increase
Bad Math and the Bradley Effect
On the Road: Albuquerque/Santa Fe, New Mexico
On the Road: Española, New Mexico
The Dow Rebounds
Today's Polls, 9/19
Outside-the-Box Ad Moves Voter Sentiment
<img src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3177/2789218680_9133fff4c4_o.png" /> Estimating the Cellphone Effect: 2.8 <strike>2.2</strike> Points
On Race-Based Voting
On the Road: Durango/Cortez, Colorado
Senate Polling Update, 9/20
Today's Polls, 9/20
On the Road: Albuquerque/Santa Fe, New Mexico
Estimating the Cellphone Effect: 2.8 2.2 Points
Today's Polls, 9/21
On the Road: Durango/Cortez, Colorado
On the Road: Durango/Cortez, Colorado
BREAKING: Obama Campaign Organizers Trying To Win Election Instead of Get You Yard Signs
Allocating the Undecideds
On the Road: Grand Junction, Colorado
RCP and the R2K Tracking Poll
The Debates: Somebody's Wrong
Today's Polls, 9/22
Today’s Polls, 9/21
Debates May Not Be Decisive After All
Is Washoe County, Nevada About To Flip Blue?
On the Road: Colorado Springs, Colorado
Oops
Road to 270: Iowa
Today's Polls, 9/23
Today’s Polls, 9/22
The Debates: Somebody’s Wrong
Intrade Betting is Suspicious
On the Road: Boulder, Colorado
Today's Polls, 9/24
Oops
Today’s Polls, 9/23
AM Trackers Suggest Poor Reaction to McCain Announcement
Electoral Projections Done Right: Ann Selzer on Youth & Minority Turnout
McCain Doubling Down on Debate?
On the Road: Denver, Colorado
Remains Of The Day
Selzer & Co: Correction on Cellphones
Today's Polls, 9/25
Today’s Polls, 9/24
Debate Goals
McCain's Mistake?
On the Road: Des Moines, Iowa
On the Road: Omaha, Nebraska
Presidential Debate Liveblog #1: Live From Oxford
Presidential Debate Liveblog #2: Live From Oxford
Presidential Debate Liveblog #3: Live From Oxford
Presidential Debate Liveblog #4: Live From Oxford
Presidential Debate Post-Mortem: Live From Oxford
Road to 270: Nebraska
Today's Polls, 9/26
Ann Selzer on Youth & Minority Turnout
Electoral Projections Done Right: Why Voters Thought Obama Won
How You Know It's Crunch Time
Today's Polls, 9/27
Presidential Debate Liveblog #1: Live From Oxford
Presidential Debate Liveblog #2: Live From Oxford
Presidential Debate Liveblog #3: Live From Oxford
Presidential Debate Liveblog #4: Live From Oxford
Presidential Debate Post-Mortem: Live From Oxford
Why Voters Thought Obama Won
McCain Is Stuck With Palin
Road to 270: Rhode Island
Senate Projections, 9/28
Today's Polls, 9/28
Big Media Me
Electoral Projections Done Right: Swing District Congressmen Doomed Bailout
Memo to Joe Biden: Let Palin Talk
More Bailout Thoughts
News Accounts May Overstate Public Opposition to Bailout
Pelosi Tips the Scales?
Road to 270: Utah
Today's Polls, 9/29
McCain Is Stuck With Palin
Road to 270: Rhode Island
Swing District Congressmen Doomed Bailout
More Media
On Dumping Palin
The Tongue Jut
Today's Polls, 9/30
What Obama Accomplished at the Debate
What's Wrong With the Battleground Poll?
Today’s Polls, 9/29
Road to 270: Utah