fivethirtyeightindex

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October 2008

Debategate
Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/1
In Contrast to House, Few Signs of Electoral Politics in Senate Bailout Vote
Nate with Dan Rather, and Keith Olbermann
The Tongue Jut
What Obama Accomplished at the Debate
Today’s Polls, 10/1
Washington Post Chat Starts Momentarily
A Brief Interview With Chairman Dean
Obama Projects 269 Electoral Votes Even With Six-Point Cushion
Post-VP Debate Thoughts
RCP Follow-Up
Real Credibility Problems
Technical Difficulties...
Today's Polls, 10/2
Vice-Presidential Debate Liveblog #1: Live From Wash U.
Vice-Presidential Debate Liveblog #2: Live From Wash U.
In Contrast to House, Few Signs of Electoral Politics in Senate Bailout Vote
Technical Difficulties…
McCain and Michigan
On the Road: St. Louis County, Missouri
Today's Polls, 10/3
VP Debate a Ratings Winner
Vice-Presidential Debate Post-Mortem, Live From π in the Loop
Vice-Presidential Debate Liveblog #1: Live From Wash U.
Vice-Presidential Debate Liveblog #2: Live From Wash U.
Post-VP Debate Thoughts
Dueling Minnesota Polls
Omaha, Nebraska’s One Electoral Vote Is In Play
Senate Polling Update, 10/4
Today's Polls, 10/4
Today’s Polls, 10/3
New York Times Doesn’t Think North Carolina Is a Tossup
On the Road: Tippecanoe County, Indiana
Road to 270: Alaska
Today's Polls, 10/5
Why It (Probably) Won't Work
Senate Polling Update, 10/4
Omaha, Nebraska’s One Electoral Vote Is In Play
Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/6
In Georgia, Small Improvements in Black Voter Participation May Make Big Difference
On the Road: Bloomington, Indiana
Road to 270: California
What's Different About This Map?
Road to 270: Alaska
On the Road: Tippecanoe County, Indiana
BrettMarty.com
Nashville Debate Liveblog #1
Nashville Debate Liveblog #2
Nashville Debate Liveblog #3
Today's Polls, 10/7
Tonight
What State Do You Want to See Polled?
On the Road: Bloomington, Indiana
Today’s Polls, 10/6
21-2
Post-Debate Thoughts, or Lack Thereof
Today's Polls, 10/8
What is Obama's Ceiling?
Nashville Debate Liveblog #1
Nashville Debate Liveblog #2
Nashville Debate Liveblog #3
BrettMarty.com
Ayers Attacks Piquing Curiosity, But Perhaps Little Else
Electoral Projections Done Right: Uncommitteds and Persuadables in Historical Perspective
On the Road: New Albany, Indiana
Senate Projections, 10/9
Teaser
Today's Polls, 10/9
Why You Don't Bluff
21-2
Uncommitteds and Persuadables in Historical Perspective
An Invitation To Michael Barone
Debate May Have Helped Obama
Does McCain Have Cooties?
Guest Column: Will Bin Laden Strike Again?
On the Road: Dueling Rallies, Ohio
Today's Polls, 10/10
Ayers Attacks Piquing Curiosity, But Perhaps Little Else
<img src=http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3177/2789218680_9133fff4c4_o.png> Did McCain Just Walk Into a Trap?
On the Road: Troy, Ohio
Road to 270: Texas
Today's Polls, 10/11
Does McCain Have Cooties?
Did McCain Just Walk Into a Trap?
Another Way to Look at McCain's Odds
Are McCain's Ads "Dangerous"?
Patience
Today's Polls, 10/12
On the Road: Troy, Ohio
Electoral Projections Done Right: If The Bradley Effect is Gone, What Happened To It?
Electoral Projections Done Right: Mini Polling Update
Electoral Projections Done Right: On the Road: Columbus, Ohio
Electoral Projections Done Right: Religulous
Electoral Projections Done Right: Road to 270: Florida
Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/13
Is Drudge Priming a McCain "Reboot" Narrative?
Road to 270: South Dakota
Road to 270: Tennessee
Patience
Today’s Polls, 10/12
Another Way to Look at McCain’s Odds
Mini Polling Update
On the Road: Columbus, Ohio
If The Bradley Effect is Gone, What Happened To It?
Electoral Projections Done Right: CBS/NYT Poll Preempt
Electoral Projections Done Right: On the Road: Toledo, Ohio
Electoral Projections Done Right: Road to 270: Oregon
Electoral Projections Done Right: Senate Projections, 10/14
Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/14
Electoral Projections Done Right: Voter Registration in North Carolina
Road to 270: Louisiana
Today’s Polls, 10/13
Religulous
Road to 270: Florida
Voter Registration in North Carolina
Senate Projections, 10/14
Road to 270: Oregon
On the Road: Toledo, Ohio
CBS/NYT Poll Preempt
Electoral Projections Done Right: Obama Dominating Among Early Voters in Five Swing States
Road to 270: Maryland
Say It to My Face Debate Liveblog #1
Say It to My Face Debate Liveblog #2
Say It to My Face Debate Liveblog #3
Say It to My Face Debate Liveblog #4
Say It to My Face Debate Post-Mortem
Today's Polls, 10/15
Today’s Polls, 10/14
Road to 270: Louisiana
Obama Dominating Among Early Voters in Five Swing States
538's Battlegrounds as of Mid-October
On the Road: Marietta, Ohio
On the Road: Morgantown, "West By-God Virginia"
Road to 270: Montana
Today's Polls, 10/16
Where McCain Lost It
Say It to My Face Debate Liveblog #1
Say It to My Face Debate Liveblog #2
Say It to My Face Debate Liveblog #3
Say It to My Face Debate Liveblog #4
Say It to My Face Debate Post-Mortem
Bad Spin Watch: Drudge Touts Weeks-Old, Web-Based Poll
Busy, Busy, Busy
On the Road: Western Pennsylvania
Scrap the Squigglys
Today's Polls, 10/17
On the Road: Morgantown, “West By-God Virginia”
"Real" America Looks Different to Palin, Obama
Road to 270: Connecticut
Today's Polls, 10/18
On the Road: Western Pennsylvania
General Powell Endorses Obama
Road to 270: Kansas
Today's Polls, 10/19
Electoral Projections Done Right: Senate Projections, 10/20
On the Road: Philadelphia Suburbs, Pennsylvania
The Wikipedian Candidate
Today's Polls, 10/20
Senate Projections, 10/20
Exceptionally Tacky Omnibus Apology
On the Road: Northern Virginia
POLL SHOCK: 51 OBAMA, 49 MCCAIN WITH LIKELY TODDLERS
Sorry, Jim, the PUMAs are Dead
Today's Polls, 10/21
Tracking Poll Primer
538 Goes Mobile
Must Reads
On the Road: Richmond, Virginia
Road to 270: Idaho
Road to 270: New York
Some Likely Voter Models are Suspect
The Bradley Effect, Revisited
Today's Polls, 10/22
On the Road: Northern Virginia
McCain Brings Hope to Pennsylvania
AM Polls Show Surprisingly Large Leads for Obama
Obama Passes The Rove Threshold?
On the Road: Charlottesville, Virginia
Prop 8 a Toss-Up
Road to 270: Arizona
Today's Polls, 10/23: McCain on Life Support
What's Wrong With This Picture? (a.k.a. Nate the Poll Nazi Strikes Again)
Electoral Projections Done Right: On the Road: Big Stone Gap, Virginia
Electoral Projections Done Right: Senate Projections, 10/24
How The West Wasn't Won
Road to 270: Kentucky
Road to 270: Vermont
The Number That Explains It All
Today's Polls, 10/24
Today’s Polls, 10/23: McCain on Life Support
Senate Projections, 10/24
McCain's 10-Day Plan
Road to 270: New Jersey
Road to 270: North Dakota
Road to 270: South Carolina
Today's Polls, 10/25
On the Road: Big Stone Gap, Virginia
538 on The Colbert Report
A Pollster Responds
Today's Polls, 10/26
Road to 270: South Carolina
Bradley Effect? Or Elephant Effect?
On the Road: Charlotte, North Carolina
Road to 270: New Mexico
Ted Stevens Found Guilty on All Counts
The Three Ashleys
Today's Polls, 10/27
What Would 'Tightening' Look Like?
Yes, Virginia, You Are Obama's Firewall
1-in-10,000,000
Nerds Gone Wild!
On the Road: Raleigh, North Carolina
Road to 270: Delaware
Road to 270: New Hampshire
Senate Projections, Baked Alaska Edition
The Black Turnout Surge, Already In Progress
The Weather
Today's Polls, 10/28
What Would ‘Tightening’ Look Like?
Road to 270: New Mexico
Florida Flashback
In Oregon, Turnout is Down, But Especially in Red Counties
McCain Miami Rally, Getting Ugly Down Here
Obamarama Liveblog
On the Road: Wilmington, North Carolina
Road to 270: West Virginia
The Myth of the 'Lag'
The Undecideds
The Black Turnout Surge, Already In Progress
Road to 270: New Hampshire
<img src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3177/2789218680_9133fff4c4_o.png" /> Field Poll Shows Close Call on Gay Marriage Ban
Anatomy of a Polling Disaster
Are the Polls Lowballing Jim Martin (GA-Sen)?
Election Night Preview with Dan Rather
Road to 270: Illinois
Road to 270: Washington
Today's Polls, 10/29
Today's Polls, 10/30
Obamarama Liveblog
On the Road: Wilmington, North Carolina
On the Road: Wilmington, North Carolina
Irrational Exuberance in Arizona?
McCain's Mountain of a Problem
On the Road: Miami, Florida
Quick Notes
Road to 270: Missouri
Road to 270: Nevada
Senate Projections, 10/31
The Big Empty
Today's Polls, 10/31
Trick or Treat
Today’s Polls, 10/30
Field Poll Shows Close Call on Gay Marriage Ban