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June 2008

Delegate Update, Post-Puerto Rico
Popular Vote Scenario Tester, Online Version [UPDATED]
Is 2118 the Magic Number?
Today’s Polls, 6/1
Exit poll hints at a big Clinton win in Puerto Rico?
Now It Matters
Clinton wins Puerto Rico
After the Magic Number, the new Magic Number
Montana Projection: Obama by 18
South Dakota Projection: Obama by 5
Popular Vote Scenario Tester, Online Version [UPDATED]
Delegate Update, Post-Puerto Rico
Fear of the Unknown
On which reputations are made (or lost)
Today’s Polls, 6/2
Arguing against the polls
BREAKING: Hillary concedes that she conceded to concede...
Grand Finale Night Liveblog
Grand Finale Night Liveblog II: Montana and Obama's Speech
Sean = PocketNines
South Dakota Projection: Obama by 5
After the Magic Number, the new Magic Number
Montana Projection: Obama by 18
BREAKING: Hillary concedes that she conceded to concede…
Midday Notes
Exit poll teasers (updated)
Today’s Polls, 6/3
On Brian Schweitzer as VP
Sean = PocketNines
Grand Finale Night Liveblog
Grand Finale Night Liveblog II: Montana and Obama’s Speech
Two Mediocrities?
McCain’s strategy: force a gaffe?
Final Popular Vote Estimates: Obama wins 7 of 8 Michigan scenarios
Hillary’s Future (at 538)
A New Map
On Brian Schweitzer as VP
National Polls
A Call for Pollster-Poblano Unity
Today’s Polls, 6/5
A New Map
Pardon the Dust
Today’s Polls, 6/6
Some signs of a unity bounce
Hillary Clinton: Czarina of Recounts?
Rehabilitation for Herself: What Could Clinton Say?
Clinton-McCain archive
How the Electoral College Hurts the GOP
Briefings, Branding, and Bravado
Can Nader help Obama?
Today’s Polls, 6/8
The best move of the general election season (so far)
An Attempt at Senate Race Rankings
Today’s Polls, 6/9
Candidate Health Report: John McCain
Electoral Projections Done Right: Liberal-Conservative Rankings Done Right
The best move of the general election season (so far)
Liberal-Conservative Rankings Done Right
Homework Assignment
'Zona Defense
51,199,463,116,367 (Shout-Outs)
Tonight's Polls, 6/10
Candidate Health Report: John McCain
Today’s Polls, 6/11
Etc. Etc. Etc.
Today's Polls, 6/12
51,199,463,116,367 (Shout-Outs)
‘Zona Defense
Carne Asada con Obama
World’s Simplest Election Projection
Tim Russert
Etc. Etc. Etc.
Today’s Polls, 6/13
CNN Video
We know more than we think (Big Change #2)
McCain’s Atheist Problem?
Major Update Coming
We don’t know as much as we think (Big Change #1)
We know more than we think (Big Change #2)
Convention Choices and Electoral Offense
538's Battlegrounds as of Mid-June
Tea Leaves
Today's Polls, 6/16
A Refinement to the Adjustment, Part I
A Refinement to the Adjustment, Part II
Weekend Poll Catchup
Popular Vote v Electoral Vote
Defining a "Must Win" (Technical)
Today’s Polls, 6/16
538’s Battlegrounds as of Mid-June
Tea Leaves
Guess Who’s Blogging for the National Press Club?
Can a VP Nominee “Win” a State?
Today’s Polls, 6/17
Trendline now calculated from daily numbers
Defining a “Must Win” (Technical)
Today’s Polls, 6/18
Obama’s bounce in state polling
Afternoon Polling Update, 6/18
Does Obama still have an Appalachia Problem?
Another Vote for Chuck Todd
Evening Polling Update, 6/19
Why Obama should visit Alaska, Part II
Coming Soon
Today’s Polls, 6/19
Evening Polling Update, 6/19
Another Vote for Chuck Todd
How (not) to win over Clinton supporters
McCain VP: Pawlenty Guarantees MN, WI?
Today’s Polls, 6/20
Swing District Dems voted for FISA Compromise
Obama’s bounce in state vs national polls
Today’s Polls, 6/21
A Word on Voter Files
Electoral Projections Done Right: Why Obama isn't like Dukakis
Why Obama isn’t like Dukakis
Today’s Polls, 6/22
The Win Percentage Tracker Returns
Today’s Polls, 6/23
Is Charlie Black Right?
Keep an eye on SC-Sen
Liberal-Conservative Scores for Senate Candidates
Today’s Polls, 6/24
Oregon: Foreshadowing?
Should McCain just embrace the bad polls?
The Obama Eighteen
Moving Beyond the Seat Count
Today’s Polls, 6/25
The Obama Eighteen
Should McCain just embrace the bad polls?
Which Candidate has a Base Problem?
Today’s Polls, 6/26
Should we be discounting Obama’s lead? The next and hopefully last Big Change.
Ebb and Flow
Wrong Track
Right Track
Today’s Polls, 6/27
If the Election WERE Held Today...
Bob Barr Not Going Viral
Construction Season Over (Technical)
If the Election WERE Held Today…
The Electric Minor Political Scandal Acid Test
Today’s Polls, 6/29
Is Obama Becoming ‘Generic Democrat’?
Senate Polling Permathread (Updated 6/30)
Senate Projections are Live
Internal Polls
Today’s Polls, 6/30