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Explore 38,954 articles, datasets, podcasts, graphics and illustrations from fivethirtyeight.com

November 2014 graphics

260 matches

FiveThirtyEight dot plot showing expected margin of victory and leader's chance of winning for gubernatorial races, model run Oct. 31, 2014.

Charts 2014-11-01

FiveThirtyEight's Gubernatorial Forecasts

From FiveThirtyEight’s Gubernatorial Forecasts: A Lot Of Really Close Races by Nate Silver

Bar chart showing FiveThirtyEight simulation results for Republican Senate seats as of October 31, 2014, four days before the election, based on 1611 polls analyzed.

Charts 2014-11-01

Simulation Results: Republican Senate Seats (10/31/14)

From Senate Update: Republicans Lead Where They Need To, But Uncertainty Abounds by Harry Enten

Bar chart showing simulation results of Republican Senate seats distribution from a FiveThirtyEight model run on 11/01/14, 3 days before the 2014 election, based on 1626 polls analyzed.

Charts 2014-11-02

Simulation Results: Republican Senate Seats (11/01/14)

From Senate Update: Polls Point Increasingly To Republican Senate Win by Nate Silver

Artistic visualization of the 2013 Washington Wizards' 6,920 shot attempts shown as arcing light trails toward a basketball hoop, with a 45.9% field goal percentage.

Other 2014-11-02

2013 Wizards' Shots — 3,177 Field Goals Made, 45.9%

From Ctrl + ← Wizards, Words, Wealth and Witches by Mona Chalabi

Grouped bar chart comparing the share of White and Black public school students attending low-poverty to high-poverty schools, showing Black students are far more likely to attend high-poverty schools.

Charts 2014-11-02

Black public school students are far likelier to attend high-poverty schools

From Ctrl + ← Wizards, Words, Wealth and Witches by Mona Chalabi

Table-style chart showing overall frequency, frequency per decade, decade specificity, and decades of appearance for words soviet, radio, phone, television, and okay from 1810s to 2000s.

Charts 2014-11-02

Decades in Which Word Appears — Frequency and Specificity Chart

From Ctrl + ← Wizards, Words, Wealth and Witches by Mona Chalabi

A collage of multiple FiveThirtyEight data visualizations including a US map, bar chart, scatter plot, NBA player infographic, and a data table.

Maps 2014-11-02

FiveThirtyEight Article Collage: Maps, Charts, and Sports Graphics

From Ctrl + ← Wizards, Words, Wealth and Witches by Mona Chalabi

Grouped bar chart comparing income in thousands of dollars for the top 1 percent and top 0.1 percent by age groups ranging from 27-31 to 52-58.

Charts 2014-11-02

Income by Age Group: Top 1 Percent vs. Top 0.1 Percent

From Ctrl + ← Wizards, Words, Wealth and Witches by Mona Chalabi

Bubble scatter plot with hundreds of multicolored circles of varying sizes distributed across a white background, likely representing data points grouped by category.

Charts 2014-11-02

Multicolored Bubble Scatter Plot

From Ctrl + ← Wizards, Words, Wealth and Witches by Mona Chalabi

World map with red dot markers concentrated in North America, Europe, and East Asia, with sparse coverage in South America, Africa, and Australia.

Maps 2014-11-02

World Map with Location Dot Markers

From Ctrl + ← Wizards, Words, Wealth and Witches by Mona Chalabi

Ranked list of top 5 adult Halloween costumes from 2009 to 2013, showing Witch consistently at 1st and Zombie rising in popularity.

Tables 2014-11-02

Zombies Are Hot, But Clowns Are Not — Top Halloween Costumes 2009-2013

From Ctrl + ← Wizards, Words, Wealth and Witches by Mona Chalabi

Bar chart showing FiveThirtyEight Senate election simulation results from 11/02/14, displaying probability distribution of Republican seats won ranging from 42 to 59.

Charts 2014-11-02

Simulation Results: Republican Senate Seats (11/02/14)

From Senate Update: Democrats’ Chance Of Holding On Continues To Fall by Harry Enten

Scatter plot with trend line showing that states with higher Republican partisan voter index tend to have more Democratic-biased polls, titled Partisanship Predicts Poll Bias Well.

Charts 2014-11-02

Partisanship Predicts Poll Bias Well

From Are The State Polls Skewed? by Nate Silver

Stata regression output showing results of regressing bias_20082014 on bias_19982007, with ANOVA table, R-squared of 0.0394, and coefficient estimates.

Charts 2014-11-02

Stata Regression Output: bias_20082014 on bias_19982007

From Are The State Polls Skewed? by Nate Silver

Stata regression output table showing results of regressing bias_20082014 on bias_19982007 and bush_kerry, with ANOVA summary and coefficient estimates.

Tables 2014-11-02

Stata Regression Output: bias_20082014 on bias_19982007 and bush_kerry

From Are The State Polls Skewed? by Nate Silver

Stata regression output table showing results of regressing bias_20082014 on bias_19982007 and bush_kerry, with ANOVA summary and coefficient estimates.

Tables 2014-11-02

Stata Regression Output: bias_20082014 on bias_19982007 and bush_kerry

From Are The State Polls Skewed? by Nate Silver

Scatter plot comparing state poll bias from 1998-2007 versus since 2008, showing a slight positive correlation with Hawaii and Alaska labeled as outliers.

Charts 2014-11-02

State Poll Bias Is Only Slightly Consistent

From Are The State Polls Skewed? by Nate Silver

Table showing polling bias by state in statewide general elections during the final three weeks of campaigns since 1998, split into pre-2008, post-2008, and all-years columns plus Bush-Kerry PVI.

Tables 2014-11-02

Where Have Polls Been Skewed? Bias in Statewide General Election Polls Since 1998

From Are The State Polls Skewed? by Nate Silver

Table of US states ranked by Overall NHSPI score with columns for Health Surveillance, Community Planning and Engagement, Incident and Information Management, Surge Management, and Counter-Measure Management.

Tables 2014-11-03

State NHSPI Scores by Category

From Grading Your State’s Preparedness For An Ebola Outbreak by Andrew Flowers

Scatter plot showing TAR scores versus CDC per capita funding by state for 2011-12, with a downward-sloping red trend line and Nevada highlighted in blue.

Charts 2014-11-03

TAR Scores vs. CDC Per Capita Funding, By State

From Grading Your State’s Preparedness For An Ebola Outbreak by Andrew Flowers

Scatter plot showing TAR scores versus CDC total funding by state for 2011-12, with Nevada highlighted in blue and a red trend line showing a positive correlation.

Charts 2014-11-03

TAR Scores vs. CDC Total Funding, By State

From Grading Your State’s Preparedness For An Ebola Outbreak by Andrew Flowers

Scatter plot comparing TAR scores versus NHSPI scores by state, with Nevada highlighted in blue and a red trend line showing positive correlation.

Charts 2014-11-03

TAR Scores vs. NHSPI Scores, By State

From Grading Your State’s Preparedness For An Ebola Outbreak by Andrew Flowers

Line chart showing U.S. House popular vote margin from 2000 to 2012 with 2014 projected, alternating between Democratic and Republican advantages.

Charts 2014-11-03

How The Political Tide Has Flowed

From Is 2014 A Republican Wave? by Nate Silver

Stata regression output table showing results of regressing poll on _538pvi and incumbent variables, with ANOVA summary and coefficient estimates.

Tables 2014-11-03

Stata Regression Output: poll ~ _538pvi + incumbent

From Is 2014 A Republican Wave? by Nate Silver

Stata regression output table showing results of regressing poll on _538pvi and incumbent, with ANOVA summary and coefficient estimates.

Tables 2014-11-03

Stata Regression: poll ~ _538pvi + incumbent

From Is 2014 A Republican Wave? by Nate Silver

Partial bar chart showing multiple blue bars of varying heights above and below a baseline, with a highlighted bar labeled +5%.

Charts 2014-11-03

+5% Bar Chart (partial view)

From How Likely Are The Royals To Return To The World Series? by Neil Paine

FiveThirtyEight dot plot showing expected margin of victory and leader's chance of winning for gubernatorial races, model run Nov. 3, 2014.

Charts 2014-11-03

FiveThirtyEight's Gubernatorial Forecasts

From One Day Left: The Most Competitive Races For Governor by Harry Enten

Dot plot showing marijuana use in the U.S. by race, with percentages for past month, past year, and lifetime use from a 2013 survey of 45,344 adults.

Charts 2014-11-03

Marijuana Use In The U.S., By Race

From The Numbers Behind D.C.’s Pot Decriminalization Push by Mona Chalabi

FiveThirtyEight simulation table showing Georgia Senate race scenarios for Perdue vs Nunn on Nov 3 2014, with win probabilities on Nov 4 and in a runoff.

Tables 2014-11-03

Ga. Senate Scenarios — FiveThirtyEight Simulations, Nov. 3, 2014

From Why Michelle Nunn Is Rooting For A Senate Runoff In Georgia by Nate Silver

Two-panel line chart showing Georgia GOP chance of winning (74%) and expected margin of victory (+2) over time from September 1 to early November.

Charts 2014-11-03

Georgia — GOP Chance of Winning & Expected Margin of Victory

From Why Michelle Nunn Is Rooting For A Senate Runoff In Georgia by Nate Silver

Line chart showing FiveThirtyEight's Senate forecast with each party's chance of controlling the Senate from September 1 through Election Day, with Republicans at 76% and Democrats at 24%.

Charts 2014-11-04

FiveThirtyEight's Senate Forecast

From Final Update: Republicans Have A 3 In 4 Chance Of Winning The Senate by Nate Silver

Infographic showing how many more Senate seats each party needs for control in 2014, with calculations for Democrats and Republicans and a map of 8 battleground seats.

Maps 2014-11-04

How many more seats does each party need to control the Senate?

From Final Update: Republicans Have A 3 In 4 Chance Of Winning The Senate by Nate Silver

Dot density map of Houston demographics showing self-reported white non-Hispanic residents as orange dots and non-white residents as green dots, each dot representing two individuals.

Maps 2014-11-04

Demographics In Houston

From Mapping The Changing Face Of The Lone Star State by Kirk Goldsberry

Two maps of Texas showing electoral distribution in the 2012 presidential election: rural counties (37% of votes, 240 counties) in green and urban/suburban counties (63% of votes, 14 counties) in purple.

Maps 2014-11-04

Electoral Distribution In Texas: The 2012 Presidential Election

From Mapping The Changing Face Of The Lone Star State by Kirk Goldsberry

Proportional symbol map of Texas showing total presidential voters by county in 1964 vs. 2012, with nested circles representing vote totals up to 1 million.

Maps 2014-11-04

Electoral Growth In Texas: Total Presidential Voters in 1964 vs. 2012

From Mapping The Changing Face Of The Lone Star State by Kirk Goldsberry

Dot-density or choropleth map showing red and blue political or demographic distribution across an urban region, likely showing Republican and Democrat voting patterns or population data.

Maps 2014-11-04

Red-Blue Political or Demographic Map of Urban Region

From Mapping The Changing Face Of The Lone Star State by Kirk Goldsberry

Dot-density or choropleth map of a metropolitan area showing political or demographic distribution using red and blue coloring by census tract or precinct.

Maps 2014-11-04

Red-Blue Political or Demographic Map of a Metro Area

From Mapping The Changing Face Of The Lone Star State by Kirk Goldsberry

Side-by-side county-level maps of Texas showing presidential election results in 1964 (mostly blue for LBJ) versus 2012 (mostly red for Romney).

Maps 2014-11-04

Texas Was Not Always Red: Presidential Election Results 1964 vs. 2012

From Mapping The Changing Face Of The Lone Star State by Kirk Goldsberry

Dot density map of the 2012 Presidential Election in Austin, Texas, where each blue dot represents one Obama vote and each red dot represents one Romney vote.

Maps 2014-11-04

The 2012 Presidential Election In Austin

From Mapping The Changing Face Of The Lone Star State by Kirk Goldsberry

Dot density map of the 2012 Presidential Election in Dallas, where each blue dot represents one Obama vote and each red dot represents one Romney vote.

Maps 2014-11-04

The 2012 Presidential Election In Dallas

From Mapping The Changing Face Of The Lone Star State by Kirk Goldsberry

Dot density map of the 2012 Presidential Election in Houston, with each blue dot representing one Obama vote and each red dot representing one Romney vote.

Maps 2014-11-04

The 2012 Presidential Election In Houston

From Mapping The Changing Face Of The Lone Star State by Kirk Goldsberry

Dot density map of Texas showing 2012 presidential election votes, with each blue dot representing 20 Obama votes and each red dot representing 20 Romney votes.

Maps 2014-11-04

The 2012 Presidential Election In Texas

From Mapping The Changing Face Of The Lone Star State by Kirk Goldsberry

FiveThirtyEight dot plot showing gubernatorial forecasts for all states as of Nov. 3, 2014, with expected margin of victory and leader's chance of winning.

Charts 2014-11-04

FiveThirtyEight's Gubernatorial Forecasts, Nov. 3, 2014

From Final Gubernatorial Forecasts: Close Contests In 10 Races by Harry Enten

Line chart showing Alaska unemployment rate from 2000 to 2014, comparing actual and expected rates against the U.S. rate, with Gov. Parnell's term highlighted.

Charts 2014-11-04

Alaska Unemployment Rate

From How Good Are Incumbent Governors’ Economic Records? by Ben Casselman

Line chart showing Colorado unemployment rate from 2000 to 2014, comparing actual and expected rates against the U.S. rate, with Gov. Hickenlooper's term highlighted.

Charts 2014-11-04

Colorado Unemployment Rate

From How Good Are Incumbent Governors’ Economic Records? by Ben Casselman

Line chart showing Connecticut unemployment rate from 2000 to 2014, comparing actual and expected rates against the U.S. rate, with Gov. Malloy's term highlighted.

Charts 2014-11-04

Connecticut Unemployment Rate

From How Good Are Incumbent Governors’ Economic Records? by Ben Casselman

Line chart showing Florida unemployment rate from 2000 to 2014, comparing actual and expected rates for Florida alongside the U.S. rate, with Gov. Scott's term highlighted.

Charts 2014-11-04

Florida Unemployment Rate

From How Good Are Incumbent Governors’ Economic Records? by Ben Casselman

Line chart showing Illinois unemployment rate from 2000 to 2014, comparing actual and expected rates against the U.S. rate, with Gov. Quinn's term highlighted.

Charts 2014-11-04

Illinois Unemployment Rate

From How Good Are Incumbent Governors’ Economic Records? by Ben Casselman

Line chart showing Kansas unemployment rate from 2000 to 2014, comparing actual and expected Kansas rates against the U.S. rate, with Gov. Brownback's term highlighted.

Charts 2014-11-04

Kansas Unemployment Rate

From How Good Are Incumbent Governors’ Economic Records? by Ben Casselman

Line chart showing Maine's unemployment rate from 2000 to 2014, comparing actual and expected rates against the U.S. rate, with Gov. LePage's term highlighted.

Charts 2014-11-04

Maine Unemployment Rate

From How Good Are Incumbent Governors’ Economic Records? by Ben Casselman

Line chart showing Michigan's actual and expected unemployment rate versus the U.S. rate from 2000 to 2014, with Gov. Snyder's term highlighted.

Charts 2014-11-04

Michigan Unemployment Rate

From How Good Are Incumbent Governors’ Economic Records? by Ben Casselman

Line chart showing Wisconsin unemployment rate from 2000 to 2014, comparing actual and expected Wisconsin rates against the U.S. rate, with Gov. Walker's term highlighted.

Charts 2014-11-04

Wisconsin Unemployment Rate

From How Good Are Incumbent Governors’ Economic Records? by Ben Casselman

Histogram of simulation results showing probability distribution of Republican Senate seats, dated 11/04/14 with 1670 polls analyzed and 0 days until election.

Charts 2014-11-04

Simulation Results: Republican Senate Seats (11/04/14)

From Five Scenarios For The Senate Election by Nate Silver

Horizontal bar chart showing the percentage distribution of missed Senate calls in FiveThirtyEight simulations, from 0 to 9 misses.

Charts 2014-11-04

How Wrong Will We Be? Number of missed Senate "calls," FiveThirtyEight simulations

From Some Do’s And Don’t’s For Evaluating Senate Forecasts by Carl Bialik

FiveThirtyEight table showing governor poll averages versus actual results by state, with Democratic bias calculations, weighted average D+3.4.

Tables 2014-11-05

Governor Polls Had A Democratic Bias

From The Polls Were Skewed Toward Democrats by Nate Silver

Diverging bar chart showing average partisan bias in Senate polls during the final 21 days of campaigns from 1990 to 2014, with blue bars for Democratic bias and red for Republican.

Charts 2014-11-05

Partisan Bias In Senate Polls

From The Polls Were Skewed Toward Democrats by Nate Silver

Table showing Senate poll averages versus actual results for each state in 2014, with calculated Democratic bias per state and a weighted average bias of D +4.0.

Tables 2014-11-05

Senate Polls Had A Democratic Bias

From The Polls Were Skewed Toward Democrats by Nate Silver

Choropleth map of US state minimum wages post-2014 election, highlighting increases passed in Alaska, Arkansas, Illinois, Nebraska, and South Dakota.

Maps 2014-11-05

State Minimum Wages, Post-Election

From A Big Night For Minimum Wage Increases by Ben Casselman

US map showing marijuana legality by state post-election, with Oregon, Alaska, DC legalized, Florida medical did not pass, and population breakdowns by legal status.

Maps 2014-11-05

Legality Of Marijuana By State, Post-Election

From Nearly 18 Million People Live In Areas Where Marijuana Is Fully Legal by Reuben Fischer-Baum

Horizontal bar chart showing the 25 most common beverages as listed by 5,627 U.S. respondents in 2009-10, with tap water leading at 12,973 mentions.

Charts 2014-11-05

25 Most Common Beverages

From More Cola Than Juice: America’s Favorite Beverages by Mona Chalabi

Bar chart showing the number of times U.S. respondents reported drinking caffeinated coffee by hour of day, peaking around 8AM, based on 5,627 respondents in 2009-10.

Charts 2014-11-05

Coffee O'Clock

From More Cola Than Juice: America’s Favorite Beverages by Mona Chalabi

Bar chart showing the number of times respondents reported drinking soda by hour of day, peaking at noon, based on 5,627 U.S. respondents in 2009-10.

Charts 2014-11-05

Soda O'Clock

From More Cola Than Juice: America’s Favorite Beverages by Mona Chalabi

Choropleth map of the US showing the percentage point difference in voter turnout between 2014 and 2010 midterm elections by state, colored purple for higher 2010 turnout and orange for higher 2014 turnout.

Maps 2014-11-05

Difference In Voter Turnout, 2014 vs. 2010

From Preliminary Turnout Numbers Are Way Down From 2010 And 2012 by Carl Bialik, Reuben Fischer-Baum

Dot plot showing estimated voter turnout percentages by state in the 2014 election, for states with at least one statewide candidate, ranging from Maine at 59.3% to Texas at 28.5%.

Charts 2014-11-05

Estimated Voter Turnout, 2014

From Preliminary Turnout Numbers Are Way Down From 2010 And 2012 by Carl Bialik, Reuben Fischer-Baum

NFL team rankings table showing generic points favored and chances of playoffs, winning division, first round bye, and top-seed for all 32 teams.

Tables 2014-11-06

NFL Playoff Chances by Team: Playoffs, Division, Bye, Top-Seed

From NFL Week 10 Playoff Implications: A Big Week For Miami And Detroit by Mike Beuoy, Reuben Fischer-Baum

NFL game matchups ranked by playoff swing percentage, showing swing and teams affected for playoffs, division, first-round bye, and top seed categories.

Tables 2014-11-06

NFL Playoff Swing Table by Matchup

From NFL Week 10 Playoff Implications: A Big Week For Miami And Detroit by Mike Beuoy, Reuben Fischer-Baum

Two side-by-side tables showing the probability of reaching the Super Bowl and NBA Finals by playoff seed.

Tables 2014-11-06

Probability of Reaching Super Bowl vs. NBA Finals by Seed

From NFL Week 10 Playoff Implications: A Big Week For Miami And Detroit by Mike Beuoy, Reuben Fischer-Baum

Dual horizontal bar chart showing total charges filed in 2012 and estimated convictions affected by Proposition 47 across six crime categories in California.

Charts 2014-11-06

How Proposition 47 Will Affect California's Prison Population

From What To Expect Now That California Passed Prop 47 by Hayley Munguia

Table showing potential county-level impact of Proposition 47 on jail beds freed and estimated annual cost savings for Statewide, Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Joaquin.

Tables 2014-11-06

Table 3. Potential county-level impact of Proposition 47: Jail beds freed and cost savings

From What To Expect Now That California Passed Prop 47 by Hayley Munguia

FiveThirtyEight NFL Elo Playoff Odds table from Nov. 6, 2014 showing all 32 teams with Elo rating, projected wins, losses, ties, point differential, and odds to win division, make playoffs, or win Super Bowl.

Tables 2014-11-06

FiveThirtyEight's NFL Elo Playoff Odds — Nov. 6, 2014

From NFL Week 10 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds by Neil Paine

FiveThirtyEight NFL Elo Ratings table for all 32 teams as of November 6, 2014, showing Elo rating, Elo change, and rank change for each team.

Tables 2014-11-06

FiveThirtyEight's NFL Elo Ratings — Nov. 6, 2014

From NFL Week 10 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds by Neil Paine

Table showing Week 10 NFL matchups for Nov. 6, 2014 with Elo ratings, win percentages, and point spreads for home and visiting teams.

Tables 2014-11-06

Week 10 NFL Matchups According To Elo Ratings

From NFL Week 10 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds by Neil Paine

Line chart comparing Magnus Carlsen's and Viswanathan Anand's FIDE Elo ratings from 2001 to 2014, showing Carlsen's rapid rise from ~2050 to surpass Anand near 2875.

Charts 2014-11-06

Carlsen's Meteoric Rise

From Magnus Carlsen Is More Than An Odds-On Favorite To Win The World Chess Championship by Oliver Roeder

Horizontal bar chart showing Carlsen's simulated win percentages against the world top 10 chess players, assuming 50 percent draws.

Charts 2014-11-06

In A League Of His Own

From Magnus Carlsen Is More Than An Odds-On Favorite To Win The World Chess Championship by Oliver Roeder

Line chart showing Carlsen's simulated chance of winning a chess match increases from about 75% to 93% as the prevalence of draws rises from 0% to 75%.

Charts 2014-11-06

The Luck Of The Draw

From Magnus Carlsen Is More Than An Odds-On Favorite To Win The World Chess Championship by Oliver Roeder

Dot plot showing the percentage of U.S. adults with none, 1, 2-3, or 4+ tattoos overall and by age group, based on a 2010 Pew survey of 2,020 respondents.

Charts 2014-11-06

How Many Tattoos Do People Have?

From Dear Mona, How Many People Regret Their Tattoos? by Mona Chalabi

Table IIA showing position and size of tattoos by sex, comparing male (n=64) and female (n=56) tattoo sites with counts, percentages, and P values.

Tables 2014-11-06

Table IIA. Position and size of tattoos

From Dear Mona, How Many People Regret Their Tattoos? by Mona Chalabi

Line chart comparing Virginia vs. U.S. voter turnout rate among voting-eligible population from 2000 to 2014, showing Virginia's higher variability.

Charts 2014-11-06

Virginia Is For Lovers Of Variable Voter Turnout

From Why Polls Missed A Shocker In Virginia’s Senate Race by Nate Silver

Horizontal bar chart comparing 2014 preliminary voter turnout rates for key states, with Virginia highlighted at 36.7% near the bottom.

Charts 2014-11-06

Virginia's Turnout Lower Than Other Key States'

From Why Polls Missed A Shocker In Virginia’s Senate Race by Nate Silver

A two-column table listing respondent names and their associated polling organizations, including Marist College, Pew Research Center, and SurveyUSA among others.

Tables 2014-11-07

Polling Organization Respondents Table

From Most Pollsters We Surveyed Say Polling Did Well This Year by Carl Bialik

Line chart showing annual growth in average hourly earnings (seasonally adjusted) from 2008 to 2014, declining from about 3% to around 2%.

Charts 2014-11-07

Annual Growth In Average Hourly Earnings

From More Employers Are Hiring But They Aren’t Raising Pay by Ben Casselman

Line chart showing change in part-time and full-time employment since the start of the 2008 recession, seasonally adjusted, through 2014.

Charts 2014-11-07

Change In Employment Since Start Of Recession

From More Employers Are Hiring But They Aren’t Raising Pay by Ben Casselman

Line chart showing the seasonally adjusted employment rate for ages 25 to 54 from 2006 to 2014, with a sharp drop during the 2008-2009 recession and gradual recovery.

Charts 2014-11-07

Employment Rate, Ages 25 to 54

From More Employers Are Hiring But They Aren’t Raising Pay by Ben Casselman

Line chart showing seasonally adjusted total and private job growth from a year earlier, from 2010 to 2014, in millions.

Charts 2014-11-07

Job Growth From A Year Earlier

From More Employers Are Hiring But They Aren’t Raising Pay by Ben Casselman

Line chart showing the percentage of unemployed people who found a job versus stopped looking one month later, seasonally adjusted from 2007 to 2014.

Charts 2014-11-07

What The Unemployed Are Doing One Month Later

From More Employers Are Hiring But They Aren’t Raising Pay by Ben Casselman

Small multiples of win curves for 15 NFL quarterbacks plotting actual win percentage vs. expected win percentage based on game situation since 2006.

Charts 2014-11-07

'Win Curves' Of NFL QBs

From Skeptical Football: Special Midterm Edition by Benjamin Morris

Scatter plot of 2014 NFL defensive performance showing impact on opponents' win probability per game vs. opponents' expected points added per drive, with Atlanta and Miami highlighted.

Charts 2014-11-07

2014 NFL Defensive Performance

From Skeptical Football: Special Midterm Edition by Benjamin Morris

Scatter plot showing 2014 NFL mid-season kicking MVP candidates by field goal attempts vs. points above expectation, highlighting Catanzaro, Gostkowski, and Nugent.

Charts 2014-11-07

2014 NFL Mid-Season Kicking MVP

From Skeptical Football: Special Midterm Edition by Benjamin Morris

Scatter plot comparing 2014 NFL mid-season QB MVP candidates by win percentage added per drive vs. passing points added per drive, with Rodgers and P. Manning highlighted.

Charts 2014-11-07

2014 NFL Mid-Season Quarterback MVP

From Skeptical Football: Special Midterm Edition by Benjamin Morris

Scatter plot showing NFL Week 9 kickers' contribution to team margin of victory vs. points above expectation, highlighting Cundiff and Murray.

Charts 2014-11-07

NFL Week 9 Kicking MVP

From Skeptical Football: Special Midterm Edition by Benjamin Morris

Line chart comparing actual win percentage vs expected win percentage for six NFL quarterbacks (Rodgers, Stafford, Manning, Rivers, Brady, Romo) based on game situation since 2006.

Charts 2014-11-07

The Shape Of A Gunslinger

From Skeptical Football: Special Midterm Edition by Benjamin Morris

Line chart comparing actual vs expected win percentage for Tony Romo and Peyton Manning based on game situation, using best-fit curves from all QB plays since 2006.

Charts 2014-11-07

Tony Romo Is Like Peyton Manning. Sometimes.

From Skeptical Football: Special Midterm Edition by Benjamin Morris

Horizontal bar chart showing percentage-point differences between Democratic and Republican voters on four policy positions in 2012 exit polls.

Charts 2014-11-07

A Divided 2012 Electorate

From The Divide Between Republican And Democratic Voters On Major Issues by Carl Bialik

Horizontal bar chart showing percentage-point differences between Democratic and Republican voters on seven policy positions in 2014 House election exit polls.

Charts 2014-11-07

A Divided 2014 Electorate

From The Divide Between Republican And Democratic Voters On Major Issues by Carl Bialik

NFL game results table showing week, winner, pregame ELO, loser, pregame ELO, predicted margin, actual margin, and probability of actual outcome for 20 games.

Tables 2014-11-07

NFL Games: Pregame ELO, Predicted vs Actual Margin, p(Actual)

From How Unexpected Was Cleveland’s Shellacking Of Cincinnati? by Neil Paine

Histogram showing the frequency distribution of NFL score-margin prediction errors by pregame Elo ratings, centered near zero with a roughly normal bell shape.

Charts 2014-11-07

When Elo Errs ... Frequency of score-margin prediction errors by pregame Elo ratings

From How Unexpected Was Cleveland’s Shellacking Of Cincinnati? by Neil Paine

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