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2010

Is Rasmussen Reports Biased?
Healthcare Spending and Life Expectancy
The Skies Are as Friendly as Ever: 9/11, Al Qaeda Obscure Statistics on Airline Safety
Putting the [R] in [R]asmussen?
Wicked Awesome Thoughts on Massachusetts Special Election
Rassachusetts: Why a Poll May be Terribly, Horribly Wrong — And Why Democrats Should be Worried Anyway
North Dakota: #1 With a Bullet
Tea Partiers Bag Another One
Dodd Joins Dorgan on Sidelines; Blumenthal Enters as Heavy Favorite
2010 Senate Races Present Rewards, but Higher Risks for Democrats
The Retirement Paradox: What’s Strategic for the Politician is Not So Good for the Party
This is Great News! For Sarah Palin! (Really)
Rasmussen, Teabaggers, and Type II Error
Afghanistan – U.S. Politics in 2010
Might Coakley Lose?
Battle of the Massachusetts Polls
As Spotlight Shines on Reid, Re-Election Prospects Dim
Preventing Another Clinton-Obama Primary Fiasco
Massachusetts Chart of the Day
Please Don't Run, Harold
Divorce Rates Higher in States with Gay Marriage Bans
Politics of Afghanistan Part II
Massachusetts: It’s Not Just About Turnout
Please Don’t Run, Harold
Haiti and United States Inextricably Linked
DCC Trying to Encourage Regional Primaries
Vicki and the Tea Partiers
With or Without Reid, Poll Suggests Trouble For Dems in Nevada
OK, It’s a Toss-Up
Liberal Website Helpfully Tests Messages Against Vulnerable Democrat, Finds Them Wanting
A Qualified Defense of Pat Robertson
One Massachusetts Poll That Democrats Shouldn’t Panic About
Scott Brown is a Liberal Republican
538 Still Rates Massachusetts as Toss-up
A Statistical Ray of Hope for Coakley
25% ≠ 0%
538 Still Rates Massachusetts as Toss-up
Massachusetts Model Mayhem
Trendspotting in Massachusetts
A Hung Parliament? (From the Gallows, Perhaps?)
Obama Approval Under 50 Percent Among Massachusetts Likely Voters?
The Coakley-Brown Intangibles
538 Model Posits Brown as 3:1 Favorite
Defying Odds, Republican Brown Becomes Next Senator from Massachusetts
On the Future and Branding of Scott Brown
Six Quick Things
25% ≠ 0%
White House Readies Gamble On High-Speed Ping-Pong
Martha Choakley?
Are Coakley Voters Too Ashamed to be Polled?
Six Quick Things
Defying Odds, Republican Brown Becomes Next Senator from Massachusetts
On the Future and Branding of Scott Brown
Let’s Play the Blame Game!
Post-Partisanship Epic Fail?
Scott Brown is More Liberal Than Olympia Snowe, and Now He’s Pivotal, Too
Is Health Care Reform the new Iraq War?
Will the Base Abandon Hope?
Senate Rankings: Post-Masspocalypse Edition
Health Care Polls: Opinion Gap or Information Gap?
1. Reconciliation! 2. ??? 3. Profit!
Massachusetts Liked Universal Health Care Before It Voted Against It
Iraq’s Electoral Uncertainty Threatens Fragile Peace
International Affairs Intern w/ FiveThirtyEight
The Fits and Starts Expansion
Senate Rankings Update: Delaware, Indiana, Nevada
The Risks of Compromise
The White House’s Brain Freeze
Why Obama Shouldn’t Panic
Evan Bayh To Oppose Procedure That Makes Evan Bayh Unimportant
This President Ought to Know Better
Did the Speech Work?
After Massachusetts, Road to 218 is Long and Winding
What Obama Shouldn’t Learn from Steve Jobs
Liveblogging Obama’s State of Union
Clashing Hues in Richmond
Did the Speech Work?
Obama’s SOTU: Clintonian, In a Good Way
Arlen Specter May Be Screwed, But He Probably Isn’t THIS Screwed
Prime Minister’s Questions: Iraq
What Killed Obama’s Approval Numbers?
Democrats Need a Proactive Messaging Strategy
An In-Depth Look at Fourth Quarter GDP
Enough is Enough
In Illinois, Both Sides Exaggerate Electability Arguments
Better to be Strong and Wrong -- Especially When You're Actually Right
Better to be Strong and Wrong — Especially When You’re Actually Right
The Health Care Information Gap: More Information Needed
Coats and Coons
IL Primaries: Giannoulias v. Kirk, Both Gubernatorial Races Too Close to Call
Recount All But Assured in Illinois Gubernatorial Primary
McGOP: The Virtues and Vices of Sameness
A Few Questions about #QuestionTime
President Rallies Fellow Democrats
A Look At Employment
Go For It! Saints Understand Value of Aggressive Play-Calling
Super Bowl Thread: Take the Points
Instant Run-Off Proposed by Brown
What if Senators Represented People By Income or Race, Not By State?
Is It The Process, Stupid?
Go For It! Saints Understand Value of Aggressive Play-Calling
Sarah Palin Needs Help
Is It The Process, Stupid?
Republicans — Not Obama — More Often on Wrong Side of Public Opinion
A First Look at Palin’s Primary Math
Republicans are Conservative — but are they this Conservative?
Freedom’s Just Another Word for Nothing Left to Lose
What Is Government Waste?
Like Feds, States Deep In Red Too
Democrats Don’t Know the Way Forward
For UK Conservatives, It’s The MP Ratio That Matters
White House May Actually Articulate Specific Position on Health Care
Foreign Aid Spending Is Crippling Our Budget...NOT
Foreign Aid Spending Is Crippling Our Budget…NOT
Consensus Olympic Medal Count Projections: Day 3
Bayh, Relative to His State, Was Valuable to Democrats
Non-Strategic Retirement
Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 4
Republicans Must Defend Senate Seats Too
Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 6
Buh-Bayh
Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 5
Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 6
Can You Trust Those FireDogLake Polls?
Black-Robed Legislators on the Bench
Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 7
Parallels to 1994 Are Superficial, but Results May be the Same
The Tea Pauliers
Livestock Microfinance an Option for the Future?
Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 8
Newtered
The Tea Pauliers
Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 9
An In-Depth Look At the Federal Budget
Is 56 is the New 60?
Canada Not Owning the Podium
There’s More Than One Way to Lose a Majority
Is 56 is the New 60?
Hindsight and Health Care
Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 11
A Few Final Thoughts on the Ublicpay Optionway
Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 12
Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 13
In Support of Question Time: Congressman Kendrick Meek
The Myth of the Incumbent 50% Rule
Did the Blair House Summit Change Anything?
Paterson Bows Out
Karzai’s Newest Power Play
Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 14
Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 15
US Manufacturing Is Not Dead
Left-Right Populism, Part 1
The Difference Six Years Make
Winter Olympics Balance of Power Shifting Toward U.S., Asia
Obama’s No F.D.R. — Nor Does He Have F.D.R.’s Majority
Lincoln Logs a Challenger as Halter Tries to Halt Her — But are Democrats Spinning their Wheels?
Left-Right Populism, Part 2
The Difference Six Years Make
In Texas, Anti-Washington Trumps Anti-Incumbent
Popularity of Health Care Bill Unchanged Since House Vote in November
Is Obamacare a Favorite to Pass?
House Effects, Retro-Style
A Closer Look At the Beige Book
New Feature: UK Election Backgrounders
Rich County, Blue County
Charlie’s Sorry Choices
Massa v. Beck Celebrity Crazy Match
Massa's Cancer
Senate Race Rankings Update, 3/10
Maryland as Microcosm
House Effects Render Poll-Reading Difficult
Breaking News: U.S. and U.K. Redistricting Processes Equally Boneheaded
Lame Excuses on Public Option, but no “Scam”
Stats Say Kucinich may be Least Valuable Democrat
UK Swing Voters Endanger Tory Lead
Some Cautious Optimism on Health Care Whip Count
Two Pictures Tell the Story on Health Care Debate
Redistricting Process Perhaps Not as Boneheaded in U.K. as in U.S.
Coffee Party Founder, Disappointed in OFA, Charts New Course for Grassroots Activism
Which Democrats are under Primary Pressure on Health Care Vote?
Progressives’ Strategic Choices on Health Care Likely Made Little Difference
Time to Start Counting Yes Votes
Why Liberals (Suddenly) Love the Health Care Bill
NCAA Tournament Odds -- and Some Advice on Pool Strategy
NCAA Tournament Odds — and Some Advice on Pool Strategy
The Obama Surge Vote and 2010, Part 1
Time to Start Counting Yes Votes
The Progressives’ Bad Bluff
Throw All The Bums Out? Bad Idea.
It's Complicated!
A Closer Look At Inflation
The Margolies-Mezvinsky Goes To…
Passage Almost Certain, But Number of Votes Unclear
Stupak to Vote Yes?
What We Learned
UPDATED: Whip Counts Now Show Democrats With 216+ Solid Yes Votes
Rules Vote Points Toward ~220 Yeas On Final Passage
Health Care Finale Liveblog
Obama’s Share Determined Dems’ Votes on ObamaCare
Good Timing: The Role of Quantitative Political Science and Political Reporting in Shaping Perceptions
On the Appeal of Repeal
Trading Markets See Ambiguous Impact from Health Care Passage
The Fourth Branch
A Closer Look At Inflation
If There’s A Bounce, Will It Hold?
Constitutionality of Mandatory Insurance
Senate Forecast Update, 3/24
Healthcare Goes South
Are Democrats Better Off for Having Passed Health Care? Yes — and No.
Iraqi Election Goes Down to the Wire
Can Democrats “Win” The Midterms?
What is the Bond Market Telling Us?
Obama Surge Vote and 2010, Part 2
Incredible Izzo Again Defies Odds
UK Polling Numbers Not Sufficiently Precise (Yet) to Project
Is Florida Still a Swing State?
It's Not About Race -- Unless I Say It Is!
It’s Not About Race — Unless I Say It Is!
No Evidence that Red States are Lagging on Census
Drill, Barry, Drill
Study Claiming Link Between Stimulus Funding and Partisanship is Manifestly Flawed
Veronique de Rugy Responds to Critique of Stimulus Study
Encouraging Employment Data...Sort Of
Encouraging Employment Data…Sort Of
Getting It “Right” on the UK Numbers
The Best Jobs Report In a Long Time
Obama Surge Vote, Part 3: House Races
Att’n: City-Dwellers
Obama Surge Vote, Part 3: House Races
A Teacup Half-Full
Jonah Goldberg, Quarter Slave (Conceptually)
538's UK Coverage in the Guardian
Jonah Goldberg, Anti-Maldistributionist
Democrats are Enthusiastic; Republicans are More So
A Theory of Relativity
Has Augusta Gone Soft?
Is an Anti-Islam Wave Hitting Europe?
Generic Ballot Points Toward Possible 50+ Seat Loss for Democrats
Supremes Get Ready for Encore
A Theory of Relativity
Southern Republicans Prefer Romney?
Do Manhattanites Get Their Money’s Worth?
Newt Gingrich: Dominated Strategy?
New Data on Tea Party Sympathizers
Consolidate the Base, Then Move to the Center
Additional Information on New York Neighborhood Ratings
Why Turnout Matters
Pollster Responds to Your Questions
Specter Remains Vulnerable in Primary
Romney, Not Paul, Fares Best in ’12 Matchups