| 25% ≠ 0% | |
| 538 Model Posits Brown as 3:1 Favorite | |
| 538 Still Rates Massachusetts as Toss-up | |
| A Qualified Defense of Pat Robertson | |
| Are Coakley Voters Too Ashamed to be Polled? | |
| Defying Odds, Republican Brown Becomes Next Senator from Massachusetts | |
| Did the Speech Work? | |
| Haiti and United States Inextricably Linked | |
| Massachusetts Chart of the Day | |
| Obama Approval Under 50 Percent Among Massachusetts Likely Voters? | |
| On the Future and Branding of Scott Brown | |
| Please Don't Run, Harold | |
| Post-Partisanship Epic Fail? | |
| Preventing Another Clinton-Obama Primary Fiasco | |
| Six Quick Things | |
| What Killed Obama's Approval Numbers? | |
| What Obama Shouldn't Learn from Steve Jobs | |
| White House Readies Gamble On High-Speed Ping-Pong | |
| Is Rasmussen Reports Biased? | Nate Silver |
| Healthcare Spending and Life Expectancy | Andrew Gelman |
| The Skies Are as Friendly as Ever: 9/11, Al Qaeda Obscure Statistics on Airline Safety | Nate Silver |
| The Skies Are as Friendly as Ever: 9/11, Al Qaeda Obscure Statistics on Airline Safety | Nate Silver |
| Putting the [R] in [R]asmussen? | Nate Silver |
| Wicked Awesome Thoughts on Massachusetts Special Election | Nate Silver |
| Rassachusetts: Why a Poll May be Terribly, Horribly Wrong — And Why Democrats Should be Worried Anyway | Nate Silver |
| North Dakota: #1 With a Bullet | Nate Silver |
| Tea Partiers Bag Another One | Tom Schaller |
| Dodd Joins Dorgan on Sidelines; Blumenthal Enters as Heavy Favorite | Nate Silver |
| 2010 Senate Races Present Rewards, but Higher Risks for Democrats | Nate Silver |
| The Retirement Paradox: What’s Strategic for the Politician is Not So Good for the Party | Andrew Gelman |
| This is Great News! For Sarah Palin! (Really) | Nate Silver |
| Rasmussen, Teabaggers, and Type II Error | Nate Silver |
| Afghanistan – U.S. Politics in 2010 | Renard Sexton |
| Might Coakley Lose? | Tom Schaller |
| Battle of the Massachusetts Polls | Nate Silver |
| As Spotlight Shines on Reid, Re-Election Prospects Dim | Nate Silver |
| Preventing Another Clinton-Obama Primary Fiasco | Tom Schaller |
| Massachusetts Chart of the Day | Nate Silver |
| Divorce Rates Higher in States with Gay Marriage Bans | Nate Silver |
| Politics of Afghanistan Part II | Renard Sexton |
| Massachusetts: It’s Not Just About Turnout | Nate Silver |
| Please Don’t Run, Harold | Tom Schaller |
| Haiti and United States Inextricably Linked | Renard Sexton |
| DCC Trying to Encourage Regional Primaries | Tom Schaller |
| Vicki and the Tea Partiers | Tom Schaller |
| With or Without Reid, Poll Suggests Trouble For Dems in Nevada | Nate Silver |
| OK, It’s a Toss-Up | Nate Silver |
| Liberal Website Helpfully Tests Messages Against Vulnerable Democrat, Finds Them Wanting | Nate Silver |
| A Qualified Defense of Pat Robertson | FiveThirtyEight |
| One Massachusetts Poll That Democrats Shouldn’t Panic About | Nate Silver |
| Scott Brown is a Liberal Republican | Andrew Gelman |
| A Statistical Ray of Hope for Coakley | Nate Silver |
| 538 Still Rates Massachusetts as Toss-up | Nate Silver |
| Massachusetts Model Mayhem | Nate Silver |
| Trendspotting in Massachusetts | Nate Silver |
| A Hung Parliament? (From the Gallows, Perhaps?) | Renard Sexton |
| Obama Approval Under 50 Percent Among Massachusetts Likely Voters? | Nate Silver |
| The Coakley-Brown Intangibles | Tom Schaller |
| 538 Model Posits Brown as 3:1 Favorite | Nate Silver |
| 25% ≠ 0% | Nate Silver |
| White House Readies Gamble On High-Speed Ping-Pong | Nate Silver |
| Martha Choakley? | Tom Schaller |
| Are Coakley Voters Too Ashamed to be Polled? | Nate Silver |
| Six Quick Things | Nate Silver |
| Defying Odds, Republican Brown Becomes Next Senator from Massachusetts | Nate Silver |
| On the Future and Branding of Scott Brown | Tom Schaller |
| Let’s Play the Blame Game! | Nate Silver |
| Post-Partisanship Epic Fail? | Nate Silver |
| Scott Brown is More Liberal Than Olympia Snowe, and Now He’s Pivotal, Too | Andrew Gelman |
| Is Health Care Reform the new Iraq War? | Nate Silver |
| Will the Base Abandon Hope? | Nate Silver |
| Senate Rankings: Post-Masspocalypse Edition | Nate Silver |
| Health Care Polls: Opinion Gap or Information Gap? | Nate Silver |
| 1. Reconciliation! 2. ??? 3. Profit! | Nate Silver |
| Massachusetts Liked Universal Health Care Before It Voted Against It | Nate Silver |
| Massachusetts Liked Universal Health Care Before It Voted Against It | Nate Silver |
| Iraq’s Electoral Uncertainty Threatens Fragile Peace | Renard Sexton |
| International Affairs Intern w/ FiveThirtyEight | Renard Sexton |
| The Fits and Starts Expansion | Hale Stewart |
| Senate Rankings Update: Delaware, Indiana, Nevada | Nate Silver |
| The Risks of Compromise | Tom Schaller |
| The White House’s Brain Freeze | Nate Silver |
| Why Obama Shouldn’t Panic | Nate Silver |
| Evan Bayh To Oppose Procedure That Makes Evan Bayh Unimportant | Nate Silver |
| This President Ought to Know Better | Tom Schaller |
| After Massachusetts, Road to 218 is Long and Winding | Nate Silver |
| What Obama Shouldn’t Learn from Steve Jobs | Nate Silver |
| Liveblogging Obama’s State of Union | Tom Schaller |
| Clashing Hues in Richmond | Tom Schaller |
| Did the Speech Work? | Tom Schaller |
| Obama’s SOTU: Clintonian, In a Good Way | Nate Silver |
| Arlen Specter May Be Screwed, But He Probably Isn’t THIS Screwed | Nate Silver |
| Prime Minister’s Questions: Iraq | Renard Sexton |
| What Killed Obama’s Approval Numbers? | Nate Silver |
| Democrats Need a Proactive Messaging Strategy | Nate Silver |
| An In-Depth Look at Fourth Quarter GDP | Hale Stewart |
| Enough is Enough | Tom Schaller |
| An In-Depth Look At the Federal Budget | |
| Coats and Coons | |
| Did the Blair House Summit Change Anything? | |
| Freedom's Just Another Word for Nothing Left to Lose | |
| Go For It! Saints Understand Value of Aggressive Play-Calling | |
| Is 56 is the New 60? | |
| Is It The Process, Stupid? | |
| Left-Right Populism, Part 1 | |
| Parallels to 1994 Are Superficial, but Results May be the Same | |
| Paterson Bows Out | |
| President Rallies Fellow Democrats | |
| Republicans Must Defend Senate Seats Too | |
| Sarah Palin Needs Help | |
| Super Bowl Thread: Take the Points | Nate Silver |
| The Tea Pauliers | |
| There's More Than One Way to Lose a Majority | |
| Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 15 | |
| Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 4 | Nate Silver |
| Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 6 | |
| Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 9 | |
| In Illinois, Both Sides Exaggerate Electability Arguments | Nate Silver |
| In Illinois, Both Sides Exaggerate Electability Arguments | Nate Silver |
| Better to be Strong and Wrong -- Especially When You're Actually Right | Nate Silver |
| Better to be Strong and Wrong — Especially When You’re Actually Right | Nate Silver |
| The Health Care Information Gap: More Information Needed | Nate Silver |
| The Health Care Information Gap: More Information Needed | Nate Silver |
| IL Primaries: Giannoulias v. Kirk, Both Gubernatorial Races Too Close to Call | Tom Schaller |
| Recount All But Assured in Illinois Gubernatorial Primary | Nate Silver |
| McGOP: The Virtues and Vices of Sameness | Nate Silver |
| Coats and Coons | Tom Schaller |
| A Few Questions about #QuestionTime | Nate Silver |
| A Look At Employment | Hale Stewart |
| President Rallies Fellow Democrats | Tom Schaller |
| Instant Run-Off Proposed by Brown | Renard Sexton |
| What if Senators Represented People By Income or Race, Not By State? | Andrew Gelman |
| Super Bowl Thread: Take the Points | Nate Silver |
| Go For It! Saints Understand Value of Aggressive Play-Calling | Nate Silver |
| Sarah Palin Needs Help | Nate Silver |
| Is It The Process, Stupid? | Tom Schaller |
| Republicans — Not Obama — More Often on Wrong Side of Public Opinion | Nate Silver |
| A First Look at Palin’s Primary Math | Nate Silver |
| Republicans are Conservative — but are they this Conservative? | Nate Silver |
| Freedom’s Just Another Word for Nothing Left to Lose | Nate Silver |
| What Is Government Waste? | Tom Schaller |
| Like Feds, States Deep In Red Too | Tom Schaller |
| Democrats Don’t Know the Way Forward | Nate Silver |
| For UK Conservatives, It’s The MP Ratio That Matters | Renard Sexton |
| White House May Actually Articulate Specific Position on Health Care | Nate Silver |
| Foreign Aid Spending Is Crippling Our Budget...NOT | Nate Silver |
| Foreign Aid Spending Is Crippling Our Budget…NOT | Tom Schaller |
| Consensus Olympic Medal Count Projections: Day 3 | Nate Silver |
| Consensus Olympic Medal Count Projections: Day 3 | Nate Silver |
| Bayh, Relative to His State, Was Valuable to Democrats | Nate Silver |
| Bayh, Relative to His State, Was Valuable to Democrats | Nate Silver |
| Non-Strategic Retirement | Andrew Gelman |
| Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 4 | Nate Silver |
| Republicans Must Defend Senate Seats Too | Nate Silver |
| Buh-Bayh | Tom Schaller |
| Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 5 | Nate Silver |
| Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 6 | Nate Silver |
| Can You Trust Those FireDogLake Polls? | Nate Silver |
| Black-Robed Legislators on the Bench | Tom Schaller |
| Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 7 | Nate Silver |
| Parallels to 1994 Are Superficial, but Results May be the Same | Nate Silver |
| Livestock Microfinance an Option for the Future? | Renard Sexton |
| Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 8 | Nate Silver |
| Newtered | Tom Schaller |
| The Tea Pauliers | Tom Schaller |
| Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 9 | Nate Silver |
| An In-Depth Look At the Federal Budget | Hale Stewart |
| Canada Not Owning the Podium | Nate Silver |
| Canada Not Owning the Podium | Nate Silver |
| There’s More Than One Way to Lose a Majority | Nate Silver |
| Is 56 is the New 60? | Nate Silver |
| Hindsight and Health Care | Nate Silver |
| Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 11 | Nate Silver |
| A Few Final Thoughts on the Ublicpay Optionway | Nate Silver |
| Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 12 | Nate Silver |
| Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 13 | FiveThirtyEight |
| In Support of Question Time: Congressman Kendrick Meek | FiveThirtyEight |
| The Myth of the Incumbent 50% Rule | Nate Silver |
| Did the Blair House Summit Change Anything? | Nate Silver |
| Karzai’s Newest Power Play | Renard Sexton |
| Paterson Bows Out | Tom Schaller |
| Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 14 | Nate Silver |
| Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 15 | Nate Silver |
| US Manufacturing Is Not Dead | Hale Stewart |
| Left-Right Populism, Part 1 | Tom Schaller |
| Can Democrats "Win" The Midterms? | |
| Charlie's Sorry Choices | |
| Constitutionality of Mandatory Insurance | |
| Good Timing: The Role of Quantitative Political Science and Political Reporting in Shaping Perceptions | |
| Healthcare Goes South | |
| House Effects, Retro-Style | |
| Incredible Izzo Again Defies Odds | |
| Is Florida Still a Swing State? | |
| It's Complicated! | Nate Silver |
| It's Not About Race -- Unless I Say It Is! | |
| Left-Right Populism, Part 2 | |
| Maryland as Microcosm | |
| Massa v. Beck Celebrity Crazy Match | |
| Massa's Cancer | |
| NCAA Tournament Odds -- and Some Advice on Pool Strategy | Nate Silver |
| On the Appeal of Repeal | |
| Passage Almost Certain, But Number of Votes Unclear | Nate Silver |
| Some Cautious Optimism on Health Care Whip Count | |
| The Difference Six Years Make | |
| The Fourth Branch | |
| The Obama Surge Vote and 2010, Part 1 | |
| The Progressives' Bad Bluff | |
| Time to Start Counting Yes Votes | |
| Why Liberals (Suddenly) Love the Health Care Bill | |
| Winter Olympics Balance of Power Shifting Toward U.S., Asia | Nate Silver |
| Obama’s No F.D.R. — Nor Does He Have F.D.R.’s Majority | Nate Silver |
| Lincoln Logs a Challenger as Halter Tries to Halt Her — But are Democrats Spinning their Wheels? | Nate Silver |
| The Difference Six Years Make | Tom Schaller |
| Left-Right Populism, Part 2 | Tom Schaller |
| In Texas, Anti-Washington Trumps Anti-Incumbent | Nate Silver |
| Popularity of Health Care Bill Unchanged Since House Vote in November | Nate Silver |
| Is Obamacare a Favorite to Pass? | Nate Silver |
| House Effects, Retro-Style | Andrew Gelman |
| A Closer Look At the Beige Book | Hale Stewart |
| New Feature: UK Election Backgrounders | Renard Sexton |
| Rich County, Blue County | Tom Schaller |
| Charlie’s Sorry Choices | Nate Silver |
| Massa v. Beck Celebrity Crazy Match | Tom Schaller |
| Senate Race Rankings Update, 3/10 | Nate Silver |
| Massa’s Cancer | Tom Schaller |
| House Effects Render Poll-Reading Difficult | Nate Silver |
| Breaking News: U.S. and U.K. Redistricting Processes Equally Boneheaded | FiveThirtyEight |
| Maryland as Microcosm | Tom Schaller |
| Lame Excuses on Public Option, but no “Scam” | Nate Silver |
| Stats Say Kucinich may be Least Valuable Democrat | Nate Silver |
| UK Swing Voters Endanger Tory Lead | FiveThirtyEight |
| Some Cautious Optimism on Health Care Whip Count | Nate Silver |
| Two Pictures Tell the Story on Health Care Debate | Nate Silver |
| Redistricting Process Perhaps Not as Boneheaded in U.K. as in U.S. | Andrew Gelman |
| Coffee Party Founder, Disappointed in OFA, Charts New Course for Grassroots Activism | Tom Schaller |
| Which Democrats are under Primary Pressure on Health Care Vote? | Nate Silver |
| Progressives’ Strategic Choices on Health Care Likely Made Little Difference | Nate Silver |
| Why Liberals (Suddenly) Love the Health Care Bill | Nate Silver |
| NCAA Tournament Odds -- and Some Advice on Pool Strategy | Nate Silver |
| NCAA Tournament Odds — and Some Advice on Pool Strategy | Nate Silver |
| The Obama Surge Vote and 2010, Part 1 | Tom Schaller |
| Time to Start Counting Yes Votes | Nate Silver |
| The Progressives’ Bad Bluff | Nate Silver |
| Throw All The Bums Out? Bad Idea. | Tom Schaller |
| A Closer Look At Inflation | Hale Stewart |
| It’s Complicated! | Nate Silver |
| The Margolies-Mezvinsky Goes To… | Nate Silver |
| Stupak to Vote Yes? | Nate Silver |
| What We Learned | Tom Schaller |
| Passage Almost Certain, But Number of Votes Unclear | Nate Silver |
| UPDATED: Whip Counts Now Show Democrats With 216+ Solid Yes Votes | Nate Silver |
| Rules Vote Points Toward ~220 Yeas On Final Passage | Nate Silver |
| Health Care Finale Liveblog | Nate Silver |
| Obama’s Share Determined Dems’ Votes on ObamaCare | Nate Silver |
| Good Timing: The Role of Quantitative Political Science and Political Reporting in Shaping Perceptions | Andrew Gelman |
| On the Appeal of Repeal | Nate Silver |
| Trading Markets See Ambiguous Impact from Health Care Passage | Nate Silver |
| The Fourth Branch | Nate Silver |
| A Closer Look At Inflation | Hale Stewart |
| If There’s A Bounce, Will It Hold? | Nate Silver |
| Constitutionality of Mandatory Insurance | Tom Schaller |
| Senate Forecast Update, 3/24 | Nate Silver |
| Healthcare Goes South | Tom Schaller |
| Are Democrats Better Off for Having Passed Health Care? Yes — and No. | Nate Silver |
| Iraqi Election Goes Down to the Wire | Renard Sexton |
| Can Democrats “Win” The Midterms? | Nate Silver |
| What is the Bond Market Telling Us? | Hale Stewart |
| Obama Surge Vote and 2010, Part 2 | Tom Schaller |
| Incredible Izzo Again Defies Odds | Nate Silver |
| UK Polling Numbers Not Sufficiently Precise (Yet) to Project | Renard Sexton |
| Is Florida Still a Swing State? | Nate Silver |
| It’s Not About Race — Unless I Say It Is! | Nate Silver |
| No Evidence that Red States are Lagging on Census | Nate Silver |
| 538's UK Coverage in the Guardian | |
| A Theory of Relativity | Nate Silver |
| Consolidate the Base, Then Move to the Center | |
| Do Manhattanites Get Their Money's Worth? | |
| Encouraging Employment Data...Sort Of | |
| Gallup: Plurality of Americans Like Arizona Immigration Law | |
| Has Augusta Gone Soft? | |
| How Weak Is the GOP's 2012 Field? | |
| Is the Lib-Dem Surge For Real? (Part 1: The Problem) | |
| Labour Danger: Uniform Swing Calculations May Understate Risk to Incumbents | |
| Newt Gingrich: Dominated Strategy? | |
| Obama Surge Vote, Part 3: House Races | |
| On That Other Three-Way Race... | Nate Silver |
| Wrong Arguments that Sound Right | |
| Drill, Barry, Drill | Tom Schaller |
| Study Claiming Link Between Stimulus Funding and Partisanship is Manifestly Flawed | Nate Silver |
| Veronique de Rugy Responds to Critique of Stimulus Study | Nate Silver |
| Encouraging Employment Data…Sort Of | Tom Schaller |
| Getting It “Right” on the UK Numbers | Renard Sexton |
| The Best Jobs Report In a Long Time | Hale Stewart |
| Att’n: City-Dwellers | Nate Silver |
| Obama Surge Vote, Part 3: House Races | Tom Schaller |
| A Teacup Half-Full | Nate Silver |
| Jonah Goldberg, Quarter Slave (Conceptually) | Tom Schaller |
| 538’s UK Coverage in the Guardian | Renard Sexton |
| Jonah Goldberg, Anti-Maldistributionist | Tom Schaller |
| Democrats are Enthusiastic; Republicans are More So | Nate Silver |
| Is an Anti-Islam Wave Hitting Europe? | FiveThirtyEight |
| Generic Ballot Points Toward Possible 50+ Seat Loss for Democrats | Nate Silver |
| Has Augusta Gone Soft? | Tom Schaller |
| Supremes Get Ready for Encore | Nate Silver |
| A Theory of Relativity | Nate Silver |
| Southern Republicans Prefer Romney? | Tom Schaller |
| Do Manhattanites Get Their Money’s Worth? | Nate Silver |
| Newt Gingrich: Dominated Strategy? | Nate Silver |
| New Data on Tea Party Sympathizers | Tom Schaller |
| Additional Information on New York Neighborhood Ratings | Nate Silver |
| Additional Information on New York Neighborhood Ratings | Nate Silver |
| Why Turnout Matters | Renard Sexton |
| Consolidate the Base, Then Move to the Center | Renard Sexton |
| Pollster Responds to Your Questions | Tom Schaller |
| Specter Remains Vulnerable in Primary | Nate Silver |
| Romney, Not Paul, Fares Best in ’12 Matchups | Nate Silver |
| Tea Party Bears Beck’s Imprint | Nate Silver |
| You Asked For It, You Got It | Tom Schaller |
| Use of Likely Voter Model Does Not Explain Rasmussen “House Effect” | Nate Silver |
| Is Deflation the Real Problem? | Hale Stewart |
| Selection bias in UK polling (Part 1): Cell phones | Renard Sexton |
| Selection Bias in UK Polling (Part 2): Internet Polling | Renard Sexton |
| Double Down by the Numbers: Unhealthiest Sandwich Ever? | Nate Silver |
| Is the Lib-Dem Surge For Real? (Part 1: The Problem) | Renard Sexton |
| Do Democrats Have a Dodd Problem? | Nate Silver |
| How Similar Are Tea Party and Perot Movements? | Tom Schaller |
| Wrong Arguments that Sound Right | Andrew Gelman |
| Is the Lib-Dem Surge For Real? (Part 2: Target Seats) | FiveThirtyEight |
| How Weak Is the GOP’s 2012 Field? | Nate Silver |
| Rubio’s Path Easiest, Crist’s Challenging, in Potential Three-Way Race | Nate Silver |
| Senate Forecast Update: Little Chance of GOP Takeover, but Dem Position Remains Precarious | Nate Silver |
| On Goldman | Hale Stewart |
| Labour Danger: Uniform Swing Calculations May Understate Risk to Incumbents | Nate Silver |
| Stop, Drop and Poll | Nate Silver |
| Utah’s Bennett May Be First Incumbent Casualty | Nate Silver |
| Obama, Immigration and The Latino Vote | Tom Schaller |
| Kaine: “Republicans Are the Obstruction People” | Nate Silver |
| UK Seats Projection: Tories 299, Labour 199, LibDems 120 | Andrew Flowers |
| UK Seats Projection: Tories 299, Labour 199, LibDems 120 | FiveThirtyEight |
| Post-UK Debate Scenarios | Nate Silver |
| Strong Second by LibDems Could Help Tories | Nate Silver |
| On That Other Three-Way Race… | Nate Silver |
| Gallup: Plurality of Americans Like Arizona Immigration Law | Tom Schaller |
| How Our UK Forecast Model Works | FiveThirtyEight |
| A New Poll of 500 Political Junkies... | |
| Department of Colossally Stupid Ideas: Repeal 17th Amendment | |
| Don't Take Polling Literally, Part #39916 | |
| Is the Lib-Dem Surge for Real? (Part 3: Strategy) | |
| Might This Be a Good Time for Instant Runoff? | |
| Rising Optimism in the White House? | |
| Sestakular! | |
| Today's Democratic Senate Primaries | |
| UK Quick and Dirty | |
| Unemployment and Educational Achievement | |
| Utah Will Have New Senator | |
| Wisconsin Senate: Feingold 46%, Smithee (R) 44% | |
| Third Time’s the Charm for Cameron | FiveThirtyEight |
| Nerdfight: UK Election Model Methodology | Nate Silver |
| A Closer Look At Friday’s GDP Report | Hale Stewart |
| Is the Lib-Dem Surge for Real? (Part 3: Strategy) | Renard Sexton |
| Nerdfight: Episode IV — Return of the Tories | Nate Silver |
| UK Election: “Frankenstein” Win for Labour Still Possible | Renard Sexton |
| How Far Right, Hoosier Republicans? | Ed Kilgore |
| Conservatives Climb To 308 in UK Seats Projection; Labour 198, LibDems 113 | Nate Silver |
| Rising Optimism in the White House? | Tom Schaller |
| The Incumbency Effect in the UK | Renard Sexton |
| Today’s Democratic Senate Primaries | Ed Kilgore |
| Guest Article: UK Elections Modelling, The Third Way | Carl Bialik |
| Guest Article: UK Elections Modelling, The Third Way | FiveThirtyEight |
| NC Runoff, Coats and Fisher Win Amid Light Turnout | Tom Schaller |
| A Hung Parliament Could Work Well For Cameron | FiveThirtyEight |
| Dino Rossi: #51? | Nate Silver |
| Final UK Projection: Conservatives 312, Labour 204, LibDems 103 | Nate Silver |
| UK Election Day Scenarios | Nate Silver |
| Scotland: An Electoral Bastion for Labour | FiveThirtyEight |
| UK Quick and Dirty | Renard Sexton |
| Liveblog: UK Election Returns | FiveThirtyEight |
| UK Election Returns: Overnight Blog | Nate Silver |
| Telephone Polls Closer to Mark in UK | Nate Silver |
| Hyundai’s Very Undude Car Ads | Tom Schaller |
| Utah Will Have New Senator | Nate Silver |
| Unemployment and Educational Achievement | Hale Stewart |
| Why Southern Republicans Are “Raising Arizona” | Ed Kilgore |
| On Kagan’s Minority Hiring Record | Nate Silver |
| Sestakular! | Nate Silver |
| The Protestant-Free Court | Ed Kilgore |
| UK Forecasting Retrospective | Nate Silver |
| Con-Lib Pact Brings Cameron to PM’s Chair | Renard Sexton |
| Mollohan Loss Costly for Democrats, Scary for Incumbents | Nate Silver |
| Kagan, New York, and “the Heartland” | Ed Kilgore |
| Political Comebacks, Compliments of Las Malvinas | FiveThirtyEight |
| White House Case for Specter Support Unpersuasive | Nate Silver |
| Don’t Take Polling Literally, Part #39916 | Nate Silver |
| GOP Taps Tampa | Tom Schaller |
| Is the Lib Dem Surge for Real (Part 4: The meltdown) | Renard Sexton |
| In Backing Insurgents, Republicans Face November Risks | Nate Silver |
| The Return of the (Really) Conservative Democrat? | Andrew Gelman |
| Polls, Intangibles Favor Sestak | Nate Silver |
| Ideology, Geography and Race: Arkansas Senate Primary Preview | Ed Kilgore |
| What PA-12 Means for PA-Sen, Pelosi's Majority -- And, oh, PA-12 | Ben Casselman |
| What PA-12 Means for PA-Sen, Pelosi’s Majority — And, oh, PA-12 | Tom Schaller |
| In Connecticut, Dems May Need to Draft New Candidate | Nate Silver |
| In Connecticut, Dems May Need to Draft New Candidate | Nate Silver |
| Benchmarking PA-12 | Nate Silver |
| Kentucky Senate Preview | Ed Kilgore |
| Election Night Homethread (5/18/10) | Nate Silver |
| Late Evening Election Night Thread (5/18/10) | Ed Kilgore |
| What Tuesday Really Meant | Nate Silver |
| Does Critz Victory Mean That Much? | Tom Schaller |
| Move Right and Win? We’ll Soon See | Ed Kilgore |
| Soft Landing for Blumenthal? | Nate Silver |
| The Whitman-Poizner Slugfest Gets Serious | Ed Kilgore |
| Paulapollooza | Nate Silver |
| Homework Assignment | Nate Silver |
| In the Shadow of Meg & Steve & Jerry: Update on the California Senate Race | Ed Kilgore |
| Gingrich Sounds Amped to Run | Tom Schaller |
| Finally: Something The Parties Agree About | Tom Schaller |
| Apartheid was Helped by a Twisted Election System | FiveThirtyEight |
| Storm Clouds On the Economic Horizon? | Hale Stewart |
| Lost in Hawaii | Nate Silver |
| Study: Excluding Cellphones Introduces Statistically Significant Bias in Polls | Nate Silver |
| Study: Excluding Cellphones Introduces Statistically Significant Bias in Polls | Nate Silver |
| Might This Be a Good Time for Instant Runoff? | Nate Silver |
| Might This Be a Good Time for Instant Runoff? | FiveThirtyEight |
| Gingrich Slams Paulson, Obama, Sarbanes-Oxley and Even W (a little) | Tom Schaller |
| Move Right and Win, Revisited | Ed Kilgore |
| Blast from Rasmussen’s Past | Nate Silver |
| A New Poll of 500 Political Junkies… | Nate Silver |
| Move Left and…Nothing Happens | Ed Kilgore |
| Wisconsin Senate: Feingold 46%, Smithee (R) 44% | Nate Silver |
| Department of Colossally Stupid Ideas: Repeal 17th Amendment | Tom Schaller |
| Colombian Presidential Election Headed for a Run-off | Renard Sexton |
| A Closer Look at First Quarter GDP | Hale Stewart |
| Southern Primaries Often Confound Pollsters | Nate Silver |
| Raw and Messy: Alabama Primary Preview | Ed Kilgore |
| A Liberal Coalition, But With Whom? | |
| A Note on Scheduling | |
| Advocacy in the Form of a Poll | |
| Alabama Primary Results | |
| BREAKING: Daily Kos to Sue Research 2000 for Fraud | |
| Belgian Election Ushers in Further Uncertainty | |
| California Gleanings | |
| For Information Purposes Only | |
| In Europe, the World Cup is Not for Wimps | |
| In Step Back for Journalist, Two Steps Backward for Journalism | |
| More Developments in South Carolina D-SEN Primary | |
| Most People Like Health Care Reform, Unless They're Over 65 | |
| My Own Suspicions About Research 2000 | |
| NC Runoff Results | |
| NM: Anti-Amnesty, Rove-Backed Candidate Loses to Latina In GOP Guv Primary | |
| NPR Survey of Swing Seats is Consistent with Generic Ballot Polling | |
| OFA Learned Lessons From Coakley Loss | |
| Rawl Concedes in South Carolina | |
| Research 2000 Issues Cease & Desist Letter to FiveThirtyEight | |
| SC Runoff Results | |
| Santos Wins Convincingly in Colombia | |
| Senator Byrd is Ill; A Note on West Virginia's Vacancy Laws | |
| Slow Progress in Baghdad: No PM in Place Yet | |
| That Giant Leaking Sound | |
| The Emerging Republican Minority | |
| The Somewhat Super Tuesday: Previews of the California, Iowa, and South Carolina Primaries and the Arkansas Senate Runoff | |
| Who’s Afraid of Nancy Pelosi? | FiveThirtyEight |
| Zogby Broke the Internet, But it Can be Fixed | Nate Silver |
| NM: Anti-Amnesty, Rove-Backed Candidate Loses to Latina In GOP Guv Primary | Tom Schaller |
| Alabama Primary Results | Ed Kilgore |
| Is Gulf Disaster Spilling into Obama’s Approval Ratings? | Nate Silver |
| Organizing For America Ramps Up For November | Tom Schaller |
| Alabama Turnout Analysis | Ed Kilgore |
| FiveThirtyEight to Partner with New York Times | Nate Silver |
| Colombia Redux: Mockus is in Big Trouble | Renard Sexton |
| OFA Learned Lessons From Coakley Loss | Tom Schaller |
| Ranking States by the Liberalism/Conservatism of Their Voters | Andrew Gelman |
| A Note On Early Voting and June 8 | Ed Kilgore |
| Is a Stable Government in the Netherlands Coming? | FiveThirtyEight |
| A Horrible Jobs Report | Hale Stewart |
| Pollster Ratings v4.0: Methodology | Nate Silver |
| Pollster Ratings v4.0: Results | Nate Silver |
| Pollster Scorecard: SurveyUSA | Nate Silver |
| Two Reids, Two Dakotas and a Quiet Montana | Tom Schaller |
| The Somewhat Super Tuesday: Previews of the California, Iowa, and South Carolina Primaries and the Arkansas Senate Runoff | Ed Kilgore |
| Pollster Scorecard: InsiderAdvantage (Be Careful What You Wish For) | Nate Silver |
| Are You Smarter Than a George Mason University Economics Professor? | Nate Silver |
| Primary Night in America / 6.8.2010 | Nate Silver |
| Sharron’s Rural Angle | Tom Schaller |
| California Gleanings | Ed Kilgore |
| Belgium: Making Afghan Politics Seem Straightforward | Renard Sexton |
| On Transparency, Hypocrisy, and Research 2000 | Nate Silver |
| Arkansas Was Tough Target for Unions, Netroots | Nate Silver |
| A Liberal Coalition, But With Whom? | Thomas Dollar |
| World Cup Simulated Odds | Nate Silver |
| Something Fishy in South Carolina? | Tom Schaller |
| SC Democratic Primary Getting Weirder By The Hour | Tom Schaller |
| Yes, Virginia (and Kansas and Missouri — but not you, Baylor), there is an Equilibrium Solution to the Great Conference Shakeout | Nate Silver |
| What Happens When Democrats are “Fighting Wall Street With One Hand, Unions With the Other,” While Republicans are Fighting Unions With Two Hands? | Andrew Gelman |
| Beige Book and Flow of Funds Overview | Hale Stewart |
| Belgian Election Ushers in Further Uncertainty | Renard Sexton |
| More Developments in South Carolina D-SEN Primary | Tom Schaller |
| FiveThirtyEight Seeking NYC-based Intern | Nate Silver |
| NPR Survey of Swing Seats is Consistent with Generic Ballot Polling | Nate Silver |
| Obama Speech: Good, Bad, Too Little Too Late? | Tom Schaller |
| A Note on Scheduling | Nate Silver |
| FiveThirtyEight Establishes Process for Pollsters to Review its Database of Their Polls | Nate Silver |
| World Cup Odds Update | Nate Silver |
| Top Corporate Donor to Barton Is Partner of BP on Deepwater Horizon | Nate Silver |
| Political Update from the Land of Fútbol | Thomas Dollar |
| Slow Progress in Baghdad: No PM in Place Yet | Renard Sexton |
| For Information Purposes Only | Nate Silver |
| Rawl Concedes in South Carolina | Tom Schaller |
| Is Africa Failing? | Nate Silver |
| A Closer Look At the Financial Markets | Hale Stewart |
| Why Aren’t There More Pollster Ratings? | Nate Silver |
| Santos Wins Convincingly in Colombia | Renard Sexton |
| Preview: Runoffs in the Carolinas | Ed Kilgore |
| Redefining Acceptable Ideology: Utah Primary Preview | Ed Kilgore |
| World Cup Knockout Round Scenarios | Nate Silver |
| Ratings on Obama Oil Spill Performance are Flattening Out, For Now | Nate Silver |
| That Giant Leaking Sound | Tom Schaller |
| SC Runoff Results | Ed Kilgore |
| NC Runoff Results | Ed Kilgore |
| Utah Primary Results | Ed Kilgore |
| Unsurprisingly, People are More Worried About the Economy and Jobs Than About Deficits | Andrew Gelman |
| The Emerging Republican Minority | Tom Schaller |
| Should the Republican Party Move to the Center on Social Issues? | Andrew Gelman |
| Most People Like Health Care Reform, Unless They’re Over 65 | Andrew Gelman |
| Why We Have U.S.-Ghana at Even Money | Nate Silver |
| The Virtues of Standing Fast: The Lessons in the Fall of Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd | Daniel Berman |
| A Rainbow Nation, But a Polarized Electorate | Thomas Dollar |
| A Rainbow Nation, But a Polarized Electorate | Nate Silver |
| A Closer Look at Housing | Hale Stewart |
| In Step Back for Journalist, Two Steps Backward for Journalism | Nate Silver |
| Senator Byrd is Ill; A Note on West Virginia's Vacancy Laws | Nate Silver |
| Senator Byrd is Ill; A Note on West Virginia’s Vacancy Laws | Nate Silver |
| Sen. Robert Byrd Dead at 92 | Nate Silver |
| Advocacy in the Form of a Poll | Andrew Gelman |
| Advocacy in the Form of a Poll | Nate Silver |
| [UPDATED] WV Special Election is Unlikely Until 2012 | Nate Silver |
| Scott Brown Political Check-Up | Tom Schaller |
| Senate Forecast: After Primaries, Picture Slightly Improved for Dems | Nate Silver |
| Senate Forecast: After Primaries, Picture Slightly Improved for Dems | Nate Silver |
| BREAKING: Daily Kos to Sue Research 2000 for Fraud | Nate Silver |
| My Own Suspicions About Research 2000 | Nate Silver |
| Research 2000 Issues Cease & Desist Letter to FiveThirtyEight | Nate Silver |
| Nonrandomness in Research 2000’s Presidential Tracking Polls | Nate Silver |
| In Europe, the World Cup is Not for Wimps | Renard Sexton |
| How Research 2000 Could Make Its Life Easy | Nate Silver |
| A Note to John Zogby | |
| Alabama Runoff Preview | |
| An Additional Point or Two about West Virginia | Nate Silver |
| Australian Labor Party in Pole Position | |
| Blue Dogs Be Dog-Gone Soon | |
| Bunker Mentality at 1600 Pennsylvania? | |
| Does the RNC Have Structural Problems? | |
| Gay Marriage Chart-of-the-Day | |
| Geography, Ideology and Endorsements in Georgia | |
| In Recent Japanese Elections An Unequal Electoral System Explains the Government's Defeat | |
| Introducing Partisan Propensity Index (PPI) | |
| It's Like Mathematically Unpossible for Republicans to Win the House, or Something | |
| One Reason 2010 Is Less Favorable for the House GOP Than 1994 | |
| Sarkozy Has a Popularity Problem | |
| Whassup with Taxes? | |
| When 256 Doesn't Equal 256 | |
| Can Democrats Interfere with the 2012 GOP Presidential Nomination? | Ed Kilgore |
| Kos Legal Filing Raises Further Questions about Research 2000 | Nate Silver |
| Is Research 2000 Merely Mangling Its Data -- Rather Than Fabricating It? | Nate Silver |
| Is Research 2000 Merely Mangling Its Data — Rather Than Fabricating It? | Nate Silver |
| Steele’s “Democrat War” | Ed Kilgore |
| What Makes For a Good Party Chair? | Tom Schaller |
| Kyrgyzstan on the Edge of Even Greater Ethnic Strife | Renard Sexton |
| Why Aren’t Businesses Hiring? | Hale Stewart |
| Arizona’s Long Reach | Ed Kilgore |
| Best GOP Gubernatorial Year Since 1920? | Ed Kilgore |
| A Note to John Zogby | Nate Silver |
| Does the RNC Have Structural Problems? | Tom Schaller |
| re: LeBron | Nate Silver |
| Sarkozy Has a Popularity Problem | Renard Sexton |
| Can Manchin Save West Virginia for Democrats? | Nate Silver |
| An Additional Point or Two about West Virginia | Nate Silver |
| An Additional Point or Two about West Virginia | Nate Silver |
| Did LeBron James Just Cost Himself $150 Million? | Nate Silver |
| Did LeBron James Just Cost Himself $150 Million? | Nate Silver |
| Regarding Double Dips | Hale Stewart |
| Pentagon Spends $4.4 Million to Test Troops’ Gaydar | Nate Silver |
| Will Redistricting Be More Transparent This Decade? | Tom Schaller |
| God, Guns, and Gaydar: The Laws of Probability Push You to Overestimate Small Groups | Andrew Gelman |
| One Reason 2010 Is Less Favorable for the House GOP Than 1994 | Tom Schaller |
| Alabama Runoff Preview | Ed Kilgore |
| Alabama Runoff Results | Ed Kilgore |
| It Is Too the Economy! | Nate Silver |
| Whassup with Taxes? | Andrew Gelman |
| Did Democratic Crossover Votes Beat Bradley Byrne? | Ed Kilgore |
| ARG, My Brain Hurts! | Nate Silver |
| Ronald Reagan Redux | Tom Schaller |
| Blast in Uganda Underscores a Volatile Region | Renard Sexton |
| Gay Marriage Chart-of-the-Day | Nate Silver |
| When 256 Doesn’t Equal 256 | Tom Schaller |
| The Stupidity and Hypocrisy of the Austerity Movement | Hale Stewart |
| Gay Marriage and Argentine Politics | Thomas Dollar |
| Senate Forecast, 7/18: Republican Outlook Improves with Focus on Likely Voter Polls | Nate Silver |
| Senate Forecast, 7/18: Republican Outlook Improves with Focus on Likely Voter Polls | Nate Silver |
| Is a Poll Scientific if it Excludes More Than Half the Population? | Nate Silver |
| Blue Dogs Be Dog-Gone Soon | Tom Schaller |
| Georgia Primary Preview | Ed Kilgore |
| There Is No Such Thing As a Free Shot at a Senate Seat | Nate Silver |
| Democrats Shouldn’t Spare Pennies for Lincoln | Nate Silver |
| Bunker Mentality at 1600 Pennsylvania? | Nate Silver |
| Georgia Primary Results | Ed Kilgore |
| In Recent Japanese Elections An Unequal Electoral System Explains the Government’s Defeat | Daniel Berman |
| My Life on the J-List | Nate Silver |
| Friday’s Election in Precarious Burundi | Renard Sexton |
| House Majority Tipping Point | Tom Schaller |
| Geography, Ideology and Endorsements in Georgia | Ed Kilgore |
| Australian Labor Party in Pole Position | Renard Sexton |
| Capturing the Cape | Tom Schaller |
| Labor Force Realignment and Jobless Recoveries | Hale Stewart |
| Oklahoma Primary Preview | Ed Kilgore |
| The Broadus Effect? Social Desirability Bias and California Proposition 19 | Nate Silver |
| The Broadus Effect? Social Desirability Bias and California Proposition 19 | Nate Silver |
| Cap-and-Trade is Dead; Long Live Cap-and-Trade | Nate Silver |
| Oklahoma Primary Results | Ed Kilgore |
| Blue Dogs Lessons From GOP Moderates | Tom Schaller |
| It's Like Mathematically Unpossible for Republicans to Win the House, or Something | Nate Silver |
| It’s Like Mathematically Unpossible for Republicans to Win the House, or Something | Nate Silver |
| Introducing Partisan Propensity Index (PPI) | Nate Silver |
| Introducing Partisan Propensity Index (PPI) | Nate Silver |
| Move Left and Win…A Republican Primary? | Ed Kilgore |
| Polls, Reporting on “Ground Zero Mosque” May Mislead | Nate Silver |
| A Street-Level View of the "Ground Zero Mosque" | |
| Automated Poll Produces Starkly Different Results on Gay Marriage Question | |
| Conservative, Liberal Sites Both Fueling Race "Conversation" | |
| How Stable is the Generic Ballot? | |
| Money and Mud: A Preview of Florida's Two Big Statewide Primaries | |
| Moving Day | Nate Silver |
| Obama's "Problems" With the Left | |
| What Does a Recession Look Like? | |
| A Street-Level View of the “Ground Zero Mosque” | Nate Silver |
| Second Quarter GDP Overview | Hale Stewart |
| Conservative, Liberal Sites Both Fueling Race "Conversation" | Nate Silver |
| Conservative, Liberal Sites Both Fueling Race “Conversation” | Nate Silver |
| Hill Committee Fundraising: Sign of Democratic Doom or Survival? | Tom Schaller |
| Social Desirability and Survey Reports: Some Evidence form the Research Literature | Andrew Gelman |
| Kansas, Michigan, Missouri Primary Preview | Dan Hopkins |
| Kansas, Michigan, Missouri Primary Preview | Ed Kilgore |
| Granite State Update | Tom Schaller |
| Kansas, Michigan, Missouri Primary Results | Ed Kilgore |
| UK: Labour Leadership Battle is Brewing | Renard Sexton |
| Will Gay Marriage, Once Again, Become a Campaign Issue? | Nate Silver |
| Tennessee Primary Preview | Ed Kilgore |
| Opinions on Gay Rights Vary a Lot by State | Andrew Gelman |
| Kennedy, Olson and the Right Side of History | Nate Silver |
| Tennessee Primary Results | Ed Kilgore |
| Roadmap to Nowhere | Nate Silver |
| Washington’s Muteness on Prop 8 a Sign of Cynicism, Not Progress | Nate Silver |
| Labor Market Realignment, Conclusion | Hale Stewart |
| Did Democrats Nominate Rick Snyder? | Ed Kilgore |
| How Much Revenue Would a Millionaires’ Tax Raise? | Nate Silver |
| Don’t Overlook The States | Tom Schaller |
| Chaos in Colorado | Ed Kilgore |
| Cage Match in Georgia | Ed Kilgore |
| As Liberals Lose Hope, the White House is Losing Its Cool | Nate Silver |
| How Much Does Money Matter in Connecticut and Minnesota? | Ed Kilgore |
| Some Cliffhangers, Some Surprises: Primary Night Update | Ed Kilgore |
| CNN Poll is First To Show Majority Support for Gay Marriage | Nate Silver |
| CNN Poll is First To Show Majority Support for Gay Marriage | Nate Silver |
| Opinion on Same-Sex Marriage Appears to Shift at Accelerated Pace | Nate Silver |
| Opinion on Same-Sex Marriage Appears to Shift at Accelerated Pace | Nate Silver |
| Obama's "Problems" With the Left | Nate Silver |
| Obama’s “Problems” With the Left | Tom Schaller |
| In the Battle Over a University, The Struggle for Iran’s Future Begins | Daniel Berman |
| In Which I Find Myself In Agreement With Jack Kingston | Tom Schaller |
| Schaller’s Law of Constitutional Amendment Politics | Tom Schaller |
| Automated Poll Produces Starkly Different Results on Gay Marriage Question | Nate Silver |
| Political Consultants vs. Political Scientists | Andrew Gelman |
| Obama Defense of “Ground Zero Mosque” Less Risky Than it Seems | Nate Silver |
| The ‘International Desk’ is Moving | Renard Sexton |
| Palin's Endorsements: More Method Than Madness | Harry Enten |
| Palin’s Endorsements: More Method Than Madness | Ed Kilgore |
| ESPN Umpire Study Blows The Call | Nate Silver |
| Iowa: Eighteen Months And Counting | Ed Kilgore |
| More on FiveThirtyEight’s Moving Plans | Nate Silver |
| How Stable is the Generic Ballot? | Nate Silver |
| Mild West Preview | Ed Kilgore |
| Late Night Returns From the West | Ed Kilgore |
| Hatred of Congress | Tom Schaller |
| Palestinian Refugees Get Qualified Right to Work in Lebanon | Renard Sexton |
| When Good Enough Isn’t Good Enough: On House Forecasts and the Generic Ballot | Nate Silver |
| How the Generic Ballot is Used to Estimate Votes and then Seats in Congressional Elections | Andrew Gelman |
| Australian Elections Preview: An Uneventful Campaign Heads for an Eventful Finish | Daniel Berman |
| What Does a Recession Look Like? | Hale Stewart |
| Moving Day | Nate Silver |
| Dog Days Diversion: A Preview of Tomorrow’s Primaries in AZ, AK, VT, and OK | Ed Kilgore |
| Money and Mud: A Preview of Florida’s Two Big Statewide Primaries | Ed Kilgore |
| Tuesday Night Live | Nate Silver |
| Welcome (and Welcome Back) to FiveThirtyEight | Nate Silver |
| New Forecast Shows Democrats Losing 6 to 7 Senate Seats | Nate Silver |
| A Closer Look at Alaska | Nate Silver |
| In Nevada, No One Is Someone to Watch | Nate Silver |
| With Increase in Partisanship, Fewer Surprises Likely in Governors’ Races | Nate Silver |
| A Closer Look at the Second Quarter G.D.P. | Hale Stewart |
| The Democrats’ New Normal | Nate Silver |
| How Did Democrats Get Here? | Nate Silver |
| In Singling Out Murkowski, Tea Party Chose Wisely | Nate Silver |
| G.O.P. Poised to Control 30 Governor Seats | Nate Silver |
| Governor Forecasts: Understanding the Model | Nate Silver |
| Potential for Double-Dip Recession Seems Small | Hale Stewart |
| Democrats Aren’t Running From Health Care. But What Are They Running On? | Nate Silver |
| Republicans Have One-in-Four Chance to Claim Senate Majority, Model Shows | Nate Silver |
| The Republicans’ 50-State, 428-District Strategy | Nate Silver |
| G.O.P. Has 2-in-3 Chance of Taking House, Model Forecasts | Nate Silver |
| 2 Insurgents Could Hurt G.O.P. Chances for Senate Takeover | Nate Silver |
| Paladino and New York’s Republicans | Nate Silver |
| The Polls Have Tightened? Not So Fast | Nate Silver |
| Primary Voter Turnout Stays Low, but More So for Democrats | Brian J. McCabe |
| Live Blogging Primary Night | Nate Silver |
| Voters Deliver a Reminder to Republicans (and Pundits) | Nate Silver |
| Gubernatorial Forecast Update | Nate Silver |
| After Delaware, G.O.P. Senate Takeover Appears Much Less Likely | Nate Silver |
| Complex Formulas Governing the Afghan Elections | Renard Sexton |
| House Forecast Update: Embracing the Uncertainty | Nate Silver |
| Murkowski Can Win as Write-In | Nate Silver |
| More on Murkowski’s Math | Nate Silver |
| Consumer Spending and the Economy | Hale Stewart |
| Assessing the G.O.P. and the Tea Party | Nate Silver |
| Poll Showing Gains by Paladino Excluded Key Candidate From Ballot | Nate Silver |
| Why Generic Ballots May Underestimate Democrats | Nate Silver |
| Video: The Democrats’ Strategy | The New York Times |
| Brown Gains Ground in California; Few Other Changes in Gubernatorial Forecast | Nate Silver |
| Now Here’s a Shocking Poll: Cuomo 49, Paladino 43 | Nate Silver |
| Senate Forecast: Republican Takeover Chances Improved, but Democrats Are Building Pacific Firewall | Nate Silver |
| Cuomo’s Coattails and Gillibrand’s Race | Nate Silver |
| The Bias of the Generic Ballot: It’s Complicated | Nate Silver |
| Calculating the Castle Write-In Bid | Nate Silver |
| Holding Pattern in House Forecast | Nate Silver |
| Analyzing Whitman’s Questions About California Poll | Nate Silver |
| Plan B: Connecticut and W. Virginia Create New Outline for G.O.P. Senate Takeover | Nate Silver |
| Forecast Update: Republican Governors Are Well Positioned | Nate Silver |
| The Uncanny Accuracy of Polling Averages*, Part I: Why You Can’t Trust Your Gut | Nate Silver |
| Alaska Polls Suggest Murkowski Has Upside as a Write-In | Nate Silver |
| The Uncanny Accuracy of Polling Averages*, Part II: What the Numbers Say | Nate Silver |
| G.O.P. Stays on Upswing in Senate Forecast | Nate Silver |
| House Forecast: As October Dawns, November’s Math Still Strong for G.O.P. | Nate Silver |
| The Uncanny Accuracy of Polling Averages*, Part III: This Time, It’s Different? | Nate Silver |
| The Uncanny Accuracy of Polling Averages*, Part IV: Are the Polls Getting Worse? | Nate Silver |
| Odds Against Third-Party Bid Not as Long as They Seem | Nate Silver |
| ‘Likely Voter’ Gap Favors G.O.P. by 6 Points; Gallup’s Model Sees It Bigger | Nate Silver |
| Understanding and Misunderstanding the ‘Enthusiasm Gap’ | Nate Silver |
| Shifting Tides in Governors’ Races: Brown Now 3-to-1 Favorite | Nate Silver |
| Illinois Voters, Unhappy With Candidates, Show Few Signs of Committing | Nate Silver |
| G.O.P. Senate Odds Improve for Third Consecutive Week | Nate Silver |
| Projected Republican Gains Approach 50 House Seats | Nate Silver |
| Number of Competitive House Races Doubles from Recent Years | Nate Silver |
| Incumbents Polling Below 50 Percent Often Win Re-Election, Despite Conventional Wisdom | Nate Silver |
| TimesCast: West Virginia’s Influence | The New York Times |
| West Virginia Poses Dilemma for Democrats: Must-Win or No-Win? | Nate Silver |
| Modest Gains for Democrats in Gubernatorial Forecast | Nate Silver |
| Voting by Mail in Washington State May Confound Pollsters | Nate Silver |
| Democratic Polling Improves in Key Senate Races, Lengthening G.O.P. Takeover Odds | Nate Silver |
| Bypassed Cellphones: Biased Polls? | Nate Silver |
| Second Sestak Comeback Is Unlikely | Nate Silver |
| Consensus Points to 50-Seat G.O.P. Gain in House, but May Understate Uncertainty | Nate Silver |
| Canaries in the Coal Mine? Or Cuckoo Polls? | Nate Silver |
| Alaska Race May Make for Long Election Night | Nate Silver |
| Democrats Remain Favored to Retain Senate | Nate Silver |
| Pennsylvania Revisited | Nate Silver |
| Gubernatorial Forecast Update: Can Tancredo Win in Colorado? | Nate Silver |
| The Misunderstanding of Momentum | Nate Silver |
| G.O.P. Odds of House Majority Now 3-in-4 | Nate Silver |
| Is Proposition 19 Going Up in Smoke? | Nate Silver |
| Senate Forecast Update: Don’t Call It a Comeback? | Nate Silver |
| Sometimes, Money Can’t Buy You Votes | Nate Silver |
| For First Time, Model Has G.O.P. Favored to Win 50-Plus House Seats | Nate Silver |
| Governor Forecast Update: Chafee’s Chances Wax; Whitman’s Wane | Nate Silver |
| Senate Forecast Update: G.O.P. Still Seeking No. 51 | Nate Silver |
| Early Voter ‘Enthusiasm Gap’ Appears Consistent With Polls | Nate Silver |
| A Second Pass at Early Voting Totals: Now With Extra Skepticism | Nate Silver |
| House Forecast: 8 Days to Go | Nate Silver |
| G.O.P. Senate Odds Slip on Colorado, West Virginia Polls | Nate Silver |
| Governors’ Forecast Moves Toward Democrats in 3 Blue States | Nate Silver |
| Are Democrats Overachieving in the Senate? | Nate Silver |
| Tonight’s House Forecast: 52-Seat Gain For G.O.P. | Nate Silver |
| Polls Show Wider Boxer Lead, Narrowing G.O.P. Takeover Path | Nate Silver |
| Model Now Has Whitman as Big Underdog in California | Nate Silver |
| For Democrats, Losing the House Is Not Inevitable. (Just Very Likely.) | Nate Silver |
| Angle Turns Corner in Nevada, but G.O.P. Senate Odds Drop | Nate Silver |
| G.O.P. Now Projected to Gain 53 House Seats | Nate Silver |
| Governor Forecast Update: Live, Automated Polls Split on Tancredo Chances | Nate Silver |
| ‘Robopolls’ Significantly More Favorable to Republicans Than Traditional Surveys | Nate Silver |
| Senate Update: Washington Is the New Florida | Nate Silver |
| Favorites Emerge in Three-Way Governor’s Races | Nate Silver |
| G.O.P. House Projection Steady at Plus-53 Seats | Nate Silver |
| Senate Update: California May Be Out of Reach for G.O.P. | Nate Silver |
| Sharp Changes in Maine, Oregon Governor Forecasts | Nate Silver |
| Saturday Night Forecast Update: Calm Before the Storm | Nate Silver |
| The Ultimate Hour-by-Hour, District-by-District Election Guide | Nate Silver |
| 5 Reasons Republicans Could Do Even Better Than Expected | Nate Silver |
| Strickland, Foley Hoping Voters Will Split Tickets | Nate Silver |
| Agreeing to Disagree: Size of Republican Wave Hard to Predict | Nate Silver |
| 5 Reasons Democrats Could Beat the Polls and Hold the House | Nate Silver |
| House Forecast: G.O.P. Plus 54-55 Seats; Significantly Larger or Smaller Gains Possible | Nate Silver |
| Republicans Are Clear Underdogs to Flip Senate | Nate Silver |
| Republicans Will Win More Governorships (But Democrats Could Get More Votes) | Nate Silver |
| Election Night Viewing Guide | Micah Cohen |
| Live Blogging the Election Returns | Nate Silver |
| Did Polls Underestimate Democrats’ Latino Vote? | Nate Silver |
| ‘Enthusiasm Gap’ Was Largest in Presidential Swing States | Nate Silver |
| Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly | Nate Silver |
| When ‘House Effects’ Become ‘Bias’ | Nate Silver |
| 2010: An Aligning Election | Nate Silver |
| Are Parents Just Saying No to Marijuana Legalization? | Nate Silver |
| 2012 Contenders to Bet Against | Nate Silver |
| Miller’s Chances of Victory Dim as Alaska Senate Write-In Count Begins | Nate Silver |
| Still Waiting: An Update on Still-Unresolved Races | Micah Cohen |
| Tim Pawlenty: League-Average Politician | Nate Silver |
| The Full-Body Backlash | Nate Silver |
| Health Care and Bailout Votes May Have Hurt Democrats | Nate Silver |
| Is Pelosi America’s Most Unpopular Politician? | Nate Silver |
| The Hidden Costs of Extra Airport Security | Nate Silver |
| The 800-Pound Mama Grizzly Problem | Nate Silver |
| Predicting the Economy, and Obama’s Re-Election Chances | Nate Silver |
| New Poll Suggests Shift in Public Views on T.S.A. Procedures | Nate Silver |
| Jeter’s Predictable Predicament | Nate Silver |
| Palin Support Limited Among Wealthy, College-Educated Republicans | Nate Silver |
| A Quick Note to Our Readers | Nate Silver |
| How to Judge a Dance Contest, Accurately | The Editors |
| What The T.S.A. Hasn’t Told Us | Nate Silver |
| Public Opinion on ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’ | Brian J. McCabe |
| Checking In on Those Lingering Midterm Races | Micah Cohen |
| Will the Big East and T.C.U. Live Happily Ever After? | Nate Silver |
| Qatar a Questionable World Cup Host | Nate Silver |
| Scott Brown Was an Outlier After All | Nate Silver |
| The Democrats’ Tax Cut Dilemma | Nate Silver |
| Previewing the G.O.P.’s 2012 Argument on Tax Cuts | Nate Silver |
| Obama’s Tough Words for Liberals: Truth or Dare? | Nate Silver |
| ‘Don’t Ask’ Debate Caught in Tax Cut Crossfire | Nate Silver |
| Travel Advisory | Nate Silver |
| 38 Days Later | Micah Cohen |
| Poll Suggests Risks for Obama if Liberals Feel Taken for Granted | Nate Silver |
| Reader Comments: The Obama Tax Deal | Micah Cohen |
| A Bayesian Take on Julian Assange | Nate Silver |
| Any Requests? | Micah Cohen |
| A Closer Look at the G.D.P. | Hale Stewart |
| Posts From the Past | Micah Cohen |
| Popularity of ‘Don’t Ask’ Repeal May Have Drawn Republican Votes | Nate Silver |
| Exurban Growth Should Bolster G.O.P. in Congressional Redistricting | Nate Silver |
| Census Impact on 2012 Presidential Race is Limited | Nate Silver |
| Hispanic-Majority Districts: Boon or Burden for Democrats? | Nate Silver |
| Optimism for Obama Should Come With Caution | Nate Silver |
| Blizzards and Airline Capacities Do Not Mix | Nate Silver |
| Bloomberg v. Blizzard: How Strong Is the Mayor’s Defense? | Nate Silver |
| Sarah Palin’s Nomination Chances: A Reassessment | Nate Silver |