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October 2010

G.O.P. Stays on Upswing in Senate Forecast
House Forecast: As October Dawns, November’s Math Still Strong for G.O.P.
The Uncanny Accuracy of Polling Averages*, Part III: This Time, It’s Different?
The Uncanny Accuracy of Polling Averages*, Part IV: Are the Polls Getting Worse?
Odds Against Third-Party Bid Not as Long as They Seem
‘Likely Voter’ Gap Favors G.O.P. by 6 Points; Gallup’s Model Sees It Bigger
Understanding and Misunderstanding the ‘Enthusiasm Gap’
Shifting Tides in Governors’ Races: Brown Now 3-to-1 Favorite
Illinois Voters, Unhappy With Candidates, Show Few Signs of Committing
G.O.P. Senate Odds Improve for Third Consecutive Week
Projected Republican Gains Approach 50 House Seats
Number of Competitive House Races Doubles from Recent Years
Incumbents Polling Below 50 Percent Often Win Re-Election, Despite Conventional Wisdom
TimesCast: West Virginia’s Influence
West Virginia Poses Dilemma for Democrats: Must-Win or No-Win?
Modest Gains for Democrats in Gubernatorial Forecast
Voting by Mail in Washington State May Confound Pollsters
Democratic Polling Improves in Key Senate Races, Lengthening G.O.P. Takeover Odds
Bypassed Cellphones: Biased Polls?
Second Sestak Comeback Is Unlikely
Consensus Points to 50-Seat G.O.P. Gain in House, but May Understate Uncertainty
Canaries in the Coal Mine? Or Cuckoo Polls?
Alaska Race May Make for Long Election Night
Democrats Remain Favored to Retain Senate
Pennsylvania Revisited
Gubernatorial Forecast Update: Can Tancredo Win in Colorado?
The Misunderstanding of Momentum
G.O.P. Odds of House Majority Now 3-in-4
Is Proposition 19 Going Up in Smoke?
Senate Forecast Update: Don’t Call It a Comeback?
Sometimes, Money Can’t Buy You Votes
For First Time, Model Has G.O.P. Favored to Win 50-Plus House Seats
Governor Forecast Update: Chafee’s Chances Wax; Whitman’s Wane
Senate Forecast Update: G.O.P. Still Seeking No. 51
Early Voter ‘Enthusiasm Gap’ Appears Consistent With Polls
A Second Pass at Early Voting Totals: Now With Extra Skepticism
House Forecast: 8 Days to Go
G.O.P. Senate Odds Slip on Colorado, West Virginia Polls
Governors’ Forecast Moves Toward Democrats in 3 Blue States
Are Democrats Overachieving in the Senate?
Tonight’s House Forecast: 52-Seat Gain For G.O.P.
Polls Show Wider Boxer Lead, Narrowing G.O.P. Takeover Path
Model Now Has Whitman as Big Underdog in California
For Democrats, Losing the House Is Not Inevitable. (Just Very Likely.)
Angle Turns Corner in Nevada, but G.O.P. Senate Odds Drop
G.O.P. Now Projected to Gain 53 House Seats
Governor Forecast Update: Live, Automated Polls Split on Tancredo Chances
‘Robopolls’ Significantly More Favorable to Republicans Than Traditional Surveys
Senate Update: Washington Is the New Florida
Favorites Emerge in Three-Way Governor’s Races
G.O.P. House Projection Steady at Plus-53 Seats
Senate Update: California May Be Out of Reach for G.O.P.
Sharp Changes in Maine, Oregon Governor Forecasts
Saturday Night Forecast Update: Calm Before the Storm
The Ultimate Hour-by-Hour, District-by-District Election Guide
5 Reasons Republicans Could Do Even Better Than Expected