fivethirtyeightindex

Explore 21,350 pages from fivethirtyeight.com preserved by the Internet Archive

September 2010

In Singling Out Murkowski, Tea Party Chose Wisely
G.O.P. Poised to Control 30 Governor Seats
Governor Forecasts: Understanding the Model
Potential for Double-Dip Recession Seems Small
Democrats Aren’t Running From Health Care. But What Are They Running On?
Republicans Have One-in-Four Chance to Claim Senate Majority, Model Shows
The Republicans’ 50-State, 428-District Strategy
G.O.P. Has 2-in-3 Chance of Taking House, Model Forecasts
2 Insurgents Could Hurt G.O.P. Chances for Senate Takeover
Paladino and New York’s Republicans
The Polls Have Tightened? Not So Fast
Primary Voter Turnout Stays Low, but More So for Democrats
Live Blogging Primary Night
Voters Deliver a Reminder to Republicans (and Pundits)
Gubernatorial Forecast Update
After Delaware, G.O.P. Senate Takeover Appears Much Less Likely
Complex Formulas Governing the Afghan Elections
House Forecast Update: Embracing the Uncertainty
Murkowski Can Win as Write-In
More on Murkowski’s Math
Consumer Spending and the Economy
Assessing the G.O.P. and the Tea Party
Poll Showing Gains by Paladino Excluded Key Candidate From Ballot
Why Generic Ballots May Underestimate Democrats
Video: The Democrats’ Strategy
Brown Gains Ground in California; Few Other Changes in Gubernatorial Forecast
Now Here’s a Shocking Poll: Cuomo 49, Paladino 43
Senate Forecast: Republican Takeover Chances Improved, but Democrats Are Building Pacific Firewall
Cuomo’s Coattails and Gillibrand’s Race
The Bias of the Generic Ballot: It’s Complicated
Calculating the Castle Write-In Bid
Holding Pattern in House Forecast
Analyzing Whitman’s Questions About California Poll
Plan B: Connecticut and W. Virginia Create New Outline for G.O.P. Senate Takeover
Forecast Update: Republican Governors Are Well Positioned
The Uncanny Accuracy of Polling Averages*, Part I: Why You Can’t Trust Your Gut
Alaska Polls Suggest Murkowski Has Upside as a Write-In
The Uncanny Accuracy of Polling Averages*, Part 2: What the Numbers Say
The Uncanny Accuracy of Polling Averages*, Part II: What the Numbers Say