fivethirtyeightindex

Explore 38,954 articles, datasets, podcasts, graphics and illustrations from fivethirtyeight.com

September 2019 graphics

68 matches

RealClearPolitics poll average line chart showing 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination polling from March through August, with Biden leading at 28.9%.

Charts 2019-09-03

RCP Poll Average: 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination

From How To Handle An Outlier Poll by Nate Silver

Area chart showing the share of FBS head coaches who are alumni of the school they coach, from 1975 to around 2019, fluctuating between roughly 10% and 21%.

Charts 2019-09-03

Alumni are always roaming the sidelines

From It Doesn’t Hurt To Hire Alumni As Head Coaches. But It Doesn’t Help, Either. by Josh Planos

Line chart showing average Simple Rating System points by year for college coaches who were alumni of their programs, from 1975 to around 2018, with wide swings between roughly -3 and +4.

Charts 2019-09-03

Alumni coaches see wide swings in success

From It Doesn’t Hurt To Hire Alumni As Head Coaches. But It Doesn’t Help, Either. by Josh Planos

Bubble scatter chart showing average actual wins vs Vegas preseason expected wins for NFL teams from 1989-2018, illustrating that Vegas underestimates low-win teams.

Charts 2019-09-05

Vegas underestimates low teams

From If Vegas Predicts Your NFL Team For Six Wins, You May Be In Luck by Josh Hermsmeyer

Line chart showing Democratic and Republican generic ballot polling averages from April 2019 through Election Day Nov. 3, 2020, with Democrats at 46.3% and Republicans at 39.8% as of Sept. 5, 2019.

Charts 2019-09-06

Generic Ballot Polling: Democrats 46.3% vs Republicans 39.8%

From Americans’ Views Of The Economy Are Partisan, But They’re Not Immune To Bad News by Nathaniel Rakich

Line chart showing presidential approval and disapproval ratings from January 2017 through mid-2019, with disapproval at 53.9% and approval at 41.4% on day 959.

Charts 2019-09-06

Presidential Approval Ratings Over Time (Day 959)

From Americans’ Views Of The Economy Are Partisan, But They’re Not Immune To Bad News by Nathaniel Rakich

Heatmap showing troop allocations across castles 1-10 for warlords ranked from strongest to weakest, with orange intensity indicating higher troop counts.

Charts 2019-09-06

Warlord Troop Allocations Across Castles 1–10

From What Are Your Chances Of Winning The U.S. Open? by Zach Wissner-Gross

Editorial infographic showing Colin Kaepernick in 49ers uniform alongside a scatter plot of NFL quarterback face icons positioned around an average line.

Charts 2019-09-07

Colin Kaepernick NFL Quarterback Comparison

From The Browns Have Been Better Than Average For Only 10 Weeks In The Last 20 Years by Tony Chow, Neil Paine

Line chart showing number of minor league teams for each MLB franchise since 1965, highlighting the Houston Astros versus the league average and other teams.

Charts 2019-09-09

Houston bucked the farm-team trend

From Do We Even Need Minor League Baseball? by Travis Sawchik

Scatter plot showing pass attempts per game by winning teams playing indoors since 2001, highlighting the 2019 Vikings Week 1 and 2006 Panthers Week 16 as low outliers.

Charts 2019-09-10

The Vikings started this year on the ground

From The Vikings Are Running Like It’s 1972 by Michael Salfino

Dot plot showing Dak Prescott's QB Elo value per game relative to an average starter for each game of the 2017 and 2018 NFL seasons.

Charts 2019-09-11

Dak has been up and down … and up and down … and up …

From Is Dak Prescott Finally Ready To Be Consistently Great? by Neil Paine

Multiple line charts showing median backspin rate in RPM on MLB batted balls by launch angle bucket (15-39 degrees) across 2017-2019 seasons, all showing declining spin.

Charts 2019-09-12

Batted balls have less spin across key launch angles

From Home Runs Are Soaring. Could Declining Backspin Be A Factor? by Travis Sawchik

Line chart showing Democratic (46.4%) and Republican (39.8%) polling averages from April 2019 through Election Day Nov. 3, 2020, with confidence intervals.

Charts 2019-09-13

Democrats vs. Republicans polling average through Election Day 2020

From What’s Going On With Trump’s Approval Rating? by Geoffrey Skelley

Line chart showing the share of Republicans, Independents, and Democrats who rated the economy as excellent or good from April 2017 to mid-2019, with a growing partisan divide.

Charts 2019-09-13

The partisan divide on the economy keeps getting bigger

From What’s Going On With Trump’s Approval Rating? by Geoffrey Skelley

Line chart showing Trump's approval and disapproval ratings from January 2017 through Day 966, with disapproval at 53.7% and approval at 41.6%.

Charts 2019-09-13

Trump Approval Rating: 53.7% Disapprove, 41.6% Approve (Day 966)

From What’s Going On With Trump’s Approval Rating? by Geoffrey Skelley

Box-and-whisker style chart comparing median approval ratings and ranges for US presidents from Truman to Trump, showing Trump's rating as remarkably steady.

Charts 2019-09-13

Trump's approval rating is remarkably steady

From What’s Going On With Trump’s Approval Rating? by Geoffrey Skelley

Line chart showing Trump's approval and disapproval ratings from late 2018 through September 12, 2019, with disapproval at 53.7% and approval at 41.6%.

Charts 2019-09-13

Trump's approval rating is slipping

From What’s Going On With Trump’s Approval Rating? by Geoffrey Skelley

S-curve chart showing how probability of winning a tennis game, set, tie-break, and match varies with the probability of winning each point, from 0% to 100%.

Charts 2019-09-13

Prob of winning game / set / match varies with prob of winning each point

From Can You Help Dakota Jones Raid The Lost Arc? by Zach Wissner-Gross

Line chart showing Zack Greinke's average pitch velocity in MPH by season from 2008 to 2019, with Four Seamer and Changeup highlighted in red and green.

Charts 2019-09-13

Zack Greinke Average Pitch Velocity by Season

From Zack Greinke Is One Of A Kind by Ari Levin

Line chart showing head-to-head Elo ratings for Sebastian Vettel and Charles Leclerc across ~70 Formula One events in 2018 and 2019, with Leclerc closing the gap on Vettel.

Charts 2019-09-13

Leclerc has chased Vettel down in a hurry

From Formula One Has A New Top Contender by Neil Paine

Color-coded table showing the share of each Democratic primary candidate's potential supporters who are also considering each other candidate, from a FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll after the third debate.

Tables 2019-09-13

Biden and Warren overlap with many other candidates

From The Third Democratic Debate In 7 Charts by Laura Bronner, Ella Koeze

Scatter plot showing words spoken vs. polling average for each candidate in the third Democratic debate, with Biden highest and Yang lowest in words spoken.

Charts 2019-09-13

Booker grabbed the spotlight, Sanders was largely quiet

From The Third Democratic Debate In 7 Charts by Laura Bronner, Ella Koeze

Sankey chart showing topics discussed by share of words spoken across three Democratic primary debates, with health care remaining the top issue at 21-22%.

Charts 2019-09-13

Health care remains the top issue — Topics discussed by share of words spoken during the debate

From The Third Democratic Debate In 7 Charts by Laura Bronner, Ella Koeze

Dot plot showing share of respondents considering voting for each Democratic candidate before and after the third Democratic debate, per a FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll.

Charts 2019-09-13

Warren gained the most new potential supporters

From The Third Democratic Debate In 7 Charts by Laura Bronner, Ella Koeze

Scatter plot comparing pre-debate favorability versus debate performance for 2019 Democratic primary candidates, based on a FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll, with Warren and Buttigieg above the trend line.

Charts 2019-09-13

Which candidates made an outsized impression?

From The Third Democratic Debate In 7 Charts by Laura Bronner, Ella Koeze

Text-based infographic showing updated NFL playoff probabilities for seven teams including PIT, BAL, CLE, BUF, CIN, IND, and LAC with changes from previous estimates.

Other 2019-09-16

NFL Playoff Probabilities Update for Seven Teams

From What Dominated Week 2 Of The NFL Season

Dot plot game log showing NFL quarterbacks drafted in the first round from 2010 to 2019, tracking games started versus games played over their first two seasons.

Charts 2019-09-17

Once rookies take the field, they tend to stay there

From Top QB Draft Picks Don’t Usually Flunk Out Of The NFL Right Away by Ari Levin

Heatmap table showing post-debate change in share of voters who would consider supporting each Democratic candidate, broken down by voters' top issue, from a FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll.

Charts 2019-09-17

Warren picked up a lot of potential voters; Harris did not

From Who Won The Debate Among Voters Who Prioritize Electability? Health Care? Climate Change? by Laura Bronner, Nathaniel Rakich

Color-coded table showing average debate performance ratings for 10 Democratic candidates across 5 top voter issues from a FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll after the third Democratic debate.

Tables 2019-09-17

Warren scored well with voters who prioritize 5 top issues

From Who Won The Debate Among Voters Who Prioritize Electability? Health Care? Climate Change? by Laura Bronner, Nathaniel Rakich

Line chart comparing New Orleans Saints' weekly win probability with Drew Brees playing the entire season versus Teddy Bridgewater starting games 3 through 8.

Charts 2019-09-17

Even with Brees out, the Saints are in decent shape

From The Saints And Steelers Lost Their Franchise QBs. Can They Still Make The Playoffs? by Michael Salfino

Line chart comparing Pittsburgh Steelers' probability of winning each game week with QB Roethlisberger versus QB Rudolph during the 2019 season.

Charts 2019-09-17

The Steelers were already struggling

From The Saints And Steelers Lost Their Franchise QBs. Can They Still Make The Playoffs? by Michael Salfino

Line chart showing the share of liberals, conservatives, and moderates who don't identify with any religion from 1990 to 2018, with liberals rising to nearly 40%.

Charts 2019-09-18

Liberals are increasingly likely to have no religion

From The Christian Right Is Helping Drive Liberals Away From Religion by Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux, Daniel Cox

Horizontal bar chart showing the share of Americans who say they have no religion by political ideology, from extremely liberal (~49%) to extremely conservative (~8%).

Charts 2019-09-18

The more liberal, the more likely to be unaffiliated

From The Christian Right Is Helping Drive Liberals Away From Religion by Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux, Daniel Cox

Area chart showing NFL offensive holding penalties through the first two weeks of each season from 2001 to 2019, with 2019 reaching a historical high near 145.

Charts 2019-09-19

Holding is at a historical high so far this year

From Can NFL Refs Do What Analysts Never Could: Get Coaches To Pass More? by Josh Hermsmeyer

Line chart showing Democratic support at 46.8% and Republican support at 40.0% in polling averages from April 2019 through Election Day Nov. 3, 2020, with a marker at Sept. 19, 2019.

Charts 2019-09-20

Democrats 46.8% vs Republicans 40.0% — polling averages through Election Day 2020

From Why Americans Might Be Convinced To Support A War With Iran by Dhrumil Mehta, Maddie Sach

Line chart showing the share of Americans who say various situations might justify sending U.S. troops, from 2006 to 2019, with Iran nuclear weapons consistently highest.

Charts 2019-09-20

More Americans favor using troops in Iran than elsewhere

From Why Americans Might Be Convinced To Support A War With Iran by Dhrumil Mehta, Maddie Sach

Line chart showing Trump approval and disapproval ratings from January 2017 through Day 973, with disapproval at 53.7% and approval at 42.1%.

Charts 2019-09-20

Trump Approval Rating: 53.7% Disapprove, 42.1% Approve (Day 973)

From Why Americans Might Be Convinced To Support A War With Iran by Dhrumil Mehta, Maddie Sach

Scatter plot showing Bill de Blasio's vote share in national polls from January to late 2019, with a dotted line marking his May 16, 2019 presidential announcement.

Charts 2019-09-20

De Blasio joined the 2020 race late and never caught on

From Why Bill de Blasio’s Campaign Failed (Hint: Nobody Liked Him) by Nathaniel Rakich

Line chart showing Utah Utes offensive and defensive efficiency ratings by year from 2011 to 2019, with defense historically higher but offense converging near 2019.

Charts 2019-09-20

Utah's offense is finally catching up to its defense

From Can Utah’s New-Look Offense Lead The Pac-12 Back To The Playoff? by Josh Planos

Line and area chart showing the number of cloture motions filed per congressional session from 1977 to 2017, colored by minority party, with a spike during Obama's terms.

Charts 2019-09-23

The use of filibusters accelerated during Obama's terms

From Why Are So Many Democrats Considering Ending The Filibuster? by Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

Dot plot showing NFL NFC East team quarterback values in Elo points, with a tooltip highlighting Eli Manning at 142 Elo points and an average division starter reference line.

Charts 2019-09-23

NFC East QB Value in Elo Points

From The New QBs Who Surprised Us In Week 3 Of The NFL

Rotated scatter plot showing the ideological positions of self-identified independent voters on egalitarian vs. market-oriented and immigration axes from a 2018-2019 Voter Study Group survey.

Charts 2019-09-24

Independent voters are all over the ideological map

From The Moderate Middle Is A Myth by Lee Drutman

Scatter plot showing the ideological positions of self-identified moderate voters on two axes: egalitarian vs. market-oriented and pro-immigration vs. anti-immigration, from a 2018-2019 Voter Study Group survey.

Charts 2019-09-24

Moderate voters are all over the ideological map

From The Moderate Middle Is A Myth by Lee Drutman

Rotated scatter plot showing ideological positions of moderate, independent, undecided eligible voters on two axes: egalitarian vs market-oriented and pro-immigration vs anti-immigration, based on Voter Study Group data.

Charts 2019-09-24

The middle of the middle ...

From The Moderate Middle Is A Myth by Lee Drutman

Venn diagram showing overlapping shares of the 2020 electorate that self-identify as moderate, independent, and/or undecided, with percentages in each segment.

Charts 2019-09-24

The murky "middle" of the electorate

From The Moderate Middle Is A Myth by Lee Drutman

Scatter plot showing the ideological positions of undecided 2020 voters on two axes: egalitarian vs market-oriented and pro-immigration vs anti-immigration, based on the Nov. 2018-Jan. 2019 Voter Study Group survey.

Charts 2019-09-24

Undecided voters are all over the ideological map

From The Moderate Middle Is A Myth by Lee Drutman

Bar chart showing 2019 MLB hitters ranked from highest to lowest year-over-year gains in wins above replacement, highlighting Mitch Garver, Miguel Sanó, Max Kepler, and Jorge Polanco.

Charts 2019-09-24

Few players have improved this season like Mitch Garver

From Mitch Garver Wasn’t Catching Strikes. So He Changed His Catching Stance. by Travis Sawchik

Dual line chart comparing called strike rates on the edge of the strike zone for the Minnesota Twins vs. MLB average, with runners on base and no runners on base, from 2015 to 2019.

Charts 2019-09-24

The Twins have found an edge in getting strike calls

From Mitch Garver Wasn’t Catching Strikes. So He Changed His Catching Stance. by Travis Sawchik

Line chart showing average polling percentages of those who favor vs. oppose impeaching Trump on Russia from Jan 2017 to Sept 2019, with Mueller report milestones marked.

Charts 2019-09-24

Impeaching Trump on Russia has been unpopular

From Impeaching Trump On Russia Was Unpopular. Will Ukraine Be Different? by Nate Silver

Bar chart showing NFL yearly leaders in single-season passing yards from 1967 onward, highlighting Joe Namath, Dan Marino, Drew Brees, and Patrick Mahomes's projected 2019 total above 6,000 yards.

Charts 2019-09-25

Could the NFL get its first 6,000-yard passer?

From QBs Usually Regress After Historic Seasons. Not Patrick Mahomes. by Michael Salfino

Poll table showing responses to whether President Trump should be impeached and removed from office, broken down by party, gender, age, race, and education.

Tables 2019-09-25

Should President Trump Be Impeached and Removed From Office?

From How Bad Is This Ukraine Situation For Trump?

Horizontal bar chart showing sum of pitching WAR of drafted players since 2012 by MLB team, with Cardinals leading and Mets last, highlighting NL Central teams in red.

Charts 2019-09-26

A draft-and-development arms divide in the NL Central

From The Cardinals Develop Young Pitchers. The Cubs Don’t. Which Team Is Going To The Playoffs? by Travis Sawchik

Stacked bar chart showing weekly TV ad airings by month from January to December 2019, with a spike near 7,000 in late September and an annotation noting 3,843 ads aired so far that week.

Charts 2019-09-26

Weekly TV Ad Airings in 2019 (up to ~7,000 in September)

From Which 2020 Candidates Are Running The Most TV Ads? by Nathaniel Rakich

Line chart comparing play-action plays as a share of total dropbacks by season for Power Five college teams vs. NFL from 2011 to 2019.

Charts 2019-09-26

Play-action is even more prevalent in college

From College Football Is The True Home Of The Play-Action Pass by Josh Planos, Neil Paine

Line chart comparing average Total QBR vs. play-action QBR for Power Five quarterbacks by year from 2011 to 2019, showing play-action QBR consistently higher.

Charts 2019-09-26

Quarterbacks do better on play-action plays

From College Football Is The True Home Of The Play-Action Pass by Josh Planos, Neil Paine

Line chart showing Democratic support at 46.8% and Republican support at 40.0% in polling from April 2019 through a Sept. 26, 2019 reference date, with Election Day Nov. 3, 2020 marked.

Charts 2019-09-27

Democrats vs. Republicans polling averages, April 2019–Nov. 2020

From What The First Few Post-Ukraine Polls Say About Impeachment by Dhrumil Mehta

Line chart showing the percentage of Democrats, Independents, and Republicans with a favorable view of the United Nations from 1990 to 2019, illustrating a widening partisan gap.

Charts 2019-09-27

Partisan gap on views of the UN have widened over time in the U.S.

From What The First Few Post-Ukraine Polls Say About Impeachment by Dhrumil Mehta

Line chart showing Trump approval and disapproval ratings from January 2017 to September 26, 2019 (Day 980), with disapproval at 53.2% and approval at 42.8%.

Charts 2019-09-27

Trump Approval Rating Over Time Through Day 980

From What The First Few Post-Ukraine Polls Say About Impeachment by Dhrumil Mehta

Line chart showing average share of respondents who favor vs oppose impeaching Trump in telephone polls from Jan 2017 to Sept 27, 2019, with key events marked.

Charts 2019-09-27

Will impeaching Trump become more popular?

From What The First Few Post-Ukraine Polls Say About Impeachment by Dhrumil Mehta

Bar chart showing chance of victory by order of competition in the Team Time Trial, with later-competing teams having higher win probabilities up to ~18% for position 20.

Charts 2019-09-27

Winning the Tour de FiveThirtyEight

From Which Baseball Team Will Win The Riddler Fall Classic? by Zach Wissner-Gross

Ridgeline density chart showing relative frequency of NFL fourth-down play types by success and failure across distances to go, from 2009 through Week 3 of 2019.

Charts 2019-09-27

Are screen plays good calls on fourth and long?

From The Cleveland Browns Made History — By Bungling A Fourth-And-9 Play by Josh Hermsmeyer

Small multiples bar chart showing the number of six play types run on fourth down by distance to go in NFL regular-season games from 2009 through Week 3 of 2019, with play-action being most common.

Charts 2019-09-27

On fourth down, play-action is most common

From The Cleveland Browns Made History — By Bungling A Fourth-And-9 Play by Josh Hermsmeyer

Area chart comparing 2019 Minnesota Twins players' Quasi-Win Shares by roster rank versus the average team with 290-310 total QWS since 1901, showing the Twins had more depth than star power.

Charts 2019-09-27

The Twins did it more with depth than with stars

From The Twins’ Magical Run Will Likely Go Through The Yankees. (Because Of Course.) by Neil Paine

Two dot plot charts showing Black voters' and all likely voters' support for Biden in national polls from June to September 2019, with debate dates marked.

Charts 2019-09-30

Black voters' support of Biden has been largely unchanged

From Joe Biden’s Greatest Strength Is His Greatest Vulnerability by Clare Malone

Line chart showing the share of Democrats identifying as liberal, moderate, or conservative from 1994 to 2018, with liberal rising to 51% and conservative falling to 13%.

Charts 2019-09-30

Democrats have become more liberal

From Joe Biden’s Greatest Strength Is His Greatest Vulnerability by Clare Malone

Connected dot plot showing the share of black and white voters in 2016 primary exit polls for early 2020 contest states, with orange dots for black vote and teal dots for white vote.

Charts 2019-09-30

There aren't many black voters in the first few 2020 contests

From Joe Biden’s Greatest Strength Is His Greatest Vulnerability by Clare Malone

Line chart showing the share of Democrats identifying as liberal over three five-year spans from 2001-06 to 2013-18, broken down by Non-Hispanic white, Hispanic, and Non-Hispanic black groups.

Charts 2019-09-30

White Democrats have become liberal more quickly

From Joe Biden’s Greatest Strength Is His Greatest Vulnerability by Clare Malone

Horizontal bar chart showing the lowest preseason implied probability of winning the Stanley Cup for defending NHL champions according to Vegas odds from 1985 to 2020, with St. Louis Blues at 4.5% being the lowest.

Charts 2019-09-30

The Blues can't get any respect from Vegas

From Will The Blues Be Stanley Cup Champions Again? by Terrence Doyle, Neil Paine