2012 (448 entries)

Amid Lead for Romney in Iowa Poll, Momentum for Santorum
In Iowa, Rick Perry Is Stuck in the Second Tier
Iowa Race Tightens in Final 48 Hours
Lunchtime Polling Update
In Iowa, Six Candidates Compete to Beat Expectations
Why I’d Bet on Santorum (and Against My Model)
Live Blogging the Iowa Caucuses
Romney’s Ugly Win May Be a Charm
Candidates Who Do Better Than Expected Win More Media Attention
Perry, Perry, Quite Contrary
First Post-Iowa Polls Show Bounce for Santorum
Iowan Casts Doubt on Winner of Caucus
Romney Leads South Carolina Polls
Beating Romney in N.H. Would Require Historic Upset
Vote Result From Disputed Precinct Deemed Official
Diverging Objectives in N.H. for G.O.P. Candidates
Some Signs in Polls That Santorum’s Momentum Has Stalled
Huntsman Has Momentum, but He Lacks Time
Ground Game Determines Candidates’ Strength
New Hampshire Primary Overview and Forecast
Analysis From the New Hampshire Primary
Romney Looks Strong in South Carolina and Beyond
Polls Show Gains for Romney — But Not in South Carolina
Intraparty Attacks Could Be November Liability for Romney
Romney-Obama: No Popularity Contest
Backing of Evangelicals Could Resuscitate Santorum in South Carolina
Before Citing a Poll, Read the Fine Print
Huntsman Withdrawal Should Aid Romney
Reads & Reactions
National Polls Suggest Romney Is Overwhelming Favorite for G.O.P. Nomination
The Myth of ‘Anybody but Romney’
Does Gingrich Have Momentum in South Carolina?
Perry’s Voters May Not Flock to Gingrich
Gingrich Tied With Romney in South Carolina Forecast
The Semantics and Statistics of Santorum’s Win in Iowa
Romney’s ‘Prevent Defense’ Yielding Big Gains to Opponents
Nominating Fight Wears on Romney’s Favorability Ratings
Gingrich Is Well-Positioned as South Carolina Votes
South Carolina Primary Overview and Forecast
2008 South Carolina Primary Benchmarks
Live Coverage of the South Carolina Primary
Did Gingrich’s Win Break the Paradigm?
New Florida Polls Show Big Swing to Gingrich
Some Signs G.O.P. Establishment’s Backing of Romney Is Tenuous
Reagan Count: Gingrich 55, Romney 6
The Florida State of Play
Polls Suggest Gingrich’s Support May Have Peaked
Gingrich Enters Debate Needing One More Comeback
In Florida Debate, Gingrich Ignores Lessons of Recent History
Another Check on the Campaign’s Truthiness
Consensus of Polls Shows Romney Up in Florida
Advantage Romney in February, but Risks Abound
Gingrich Upset Chances Dwindle in New Florida Polls
Polls Diverge, but All Point to a Romney Win
The Incredible Shrinking Primary Bounce
Florida Primary Overview and Forecast
The Political Geography of Florida
Florida Benchmarks From 2008
Live Coverage of the Florida Primary
Romney Wins, but Turnout Lags
Five Paths Forward for G.O.P. Nomination
Did Romney’s Ad Advantage Help in Florida?
Romney Is a Clear Favorite in Nevada, Arizona and Michigan; Ohio Is a Tossup
Obama’s Magic Number? 150,000 Jobs Per Month
Reads and Reactions: Jobs and G.O.P. Turnout
The Nevada Caucus: Look for Romney to Win and Paul to Outperform
The G.O.P. Landscape in Nevada
Nevada Caucus Updates
One Test Left for Romney: The Midwest
What We Learned from Nevada
Political Geography: Colorado
Political Geography: Minnesota
The High Stakes in Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri
Live Coverage: Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri
G.O.P. Race Has Hallmarks of Prolonged Battle
Obama’s Jobs Bounce
The Bettor’s Case for Santorum
Maine Caucus Offers an Opportunity for Paul
Jeremy Lin Is No Fluke
How Maine Helps Romney
Could Ron Paul Still Win Maine?
Down in Michigan Polls, Romney Needs to Find His Base
The Fundamentals Now Favor Obama
Romney’s Tenuous Electability Edge
Santorum’s Surge Holds Steady So Far
Santorum and the Emphasis on Social Issues
In Michigan, Momentum for Romney?
Reads and Reactions: Santorum’s Rise
Romney’s Money Problems
Mormon Voters Raise Romney’s Advantage in Arizona
In Michigan, Is Santorum Sinking or Steadying?
Romney Takes Michigan Forecast Lead
The G.O.P.’s Fuzzy Delegate Math
Stress-Testing Romney’s Michigan Edge
Political Geography: Michigan
Michigan Forecast Update: Romney’s Lead Looks More Tenuous
Examining Michigan’s Delegate Math
After Many Momentum Shifts, Michigan Is Too Close to Call
Political Geography: Arizona
Romney Poised for Big Win in Arizona
Live Coverage: the Michigan and Arizona Primaries
The Meaning of Michigan
Democrats Favored to Pick Up Snowe Seat
A Warning on the Accuracy of Primary Polls
Santorum Remains Modest Favorite in Ohio
In Washington Caucus, Expect the Unexpected
Washington Keeps Romney on Winning Track
Why Romney Wants to Be Like Michael Dukakis
State-by-State Analysis: Romney Could Win Majority of Super Tuesday Delegates
Santorum Slumps in Super Tuesday Polls
Super Tuesday Delegate Projection Update
In Caucus States, a Chance for (Almost) Every Candidate
A Guide to Super Tuesday Possibilities
How Ohio Voted Last Time
How Tennessee Voted Last Time
Romney and the Majority Track
Live Coverage: Super Tuesday
A Predictable Super Tuesday
How Would Santorum Do Without Gingrich?
How Daunting Is Santorum’s Delegate Math?
Kansas Offers Santorum Chance for Big Delegate Grab
Political Geography: Kansas
A Trip Inside the N.C.A.A. Bubble
In G.O.P. Nomination Race, Geography Has Been Destiny
Approval Ratings, Gas Prices and Statistical Noise
Polling in Deep South Has Posed Challenges
FiveThirtyEight Picks the N.C.A.A. Bracket
Political Geography: Alabama
Political Geography: Mississippi
What’s at Stake in Alabama and Mississippi
Live Coverage: Alabama and Mississippi Primaries
Why Is Santorum Overperforming His Poll Numbers?
For Romney and Santorum, a Battle of Chicago Versus Illinois
In Need of a Game Change, Santorum Plays Small Ball
Statehood Support Should Help Romney in Puerto Rico
In Illinois, Santorum’s Chance at Nomination Is Slipping Away
Political Geography: Illinois
Romney’s Slightly Exaggerated Advertising Edge
Live Coverage: the Illinois Primary
G.O.P. Nomination Becoming a One-Man Race
Introducing the Romney Magic Numbers Calculator
Etch A Sketch Highlights Missed Opportunities for Romney’s Rivals
Political Geography: Louisiana
G.O.P. Campaign Could End Soon — But Not in Louisiana
Models Based on ‘Fundamentals’ Have Failed at Predicting Presidential Elections
For a Romney Running Mate, Don’t Bet on a Governor
Polls Show Romney on Track for Win in Wisconsin
In Defense of Presidential Forecasting Models
Supreme Court May Be Most Conservative in Modern History
For Romney, a Widening Gap Between Urban and Rural Support
Complacency a Threat to Romney in Wisconsin
Romney Could Net 50 Delegates From Maryland and D.C.
Political Geography: Wisconsin
Counterintuitive Theories on Obama and Supreme Court Run Against Polling Evidence
Live Coverage of the Wisconsin, Maryland and D.C. Primaries
Romney’s Michigan Win Stands as Climactic Moment in Campaign
Reads and Reactions
A Living Autopsy of the Ron Paul Campaign
What Does Santorum’s Future Hold?
Romney’s ‘Empathy Gap’
Notes on Poll-Watching, as Shift Toward General Election Season Begins
The General Election Ground Game: A First Look
Do Romney’s Favorability Ratings Matter?
The Overrated Vice Presidential Home-State Effect
What Do Springtime Polls Tell Us About the General Election?
Arizona Is (Probably) Not a Swing State
What a Dearth of Small Donations May Mean for Romney
Lugar Loss Could Provide Pickup Opportunity for Democrats
Is Obama More Popular Than He Should Be?
North Carolina’s Ban on Gay Marriage Appears Likely to Pass
Has Obama’s Magic Jobs Number Changed?
Reads and Reactions: Reader Comment Edition
Is Obama More Popular Than He Should Be, Revisited
Moderate Republicans Fall Away in the Senate
Support for Gay Marriage Outweighs Opposition in Polls
Gay Marriage and the Democratic Base
A 30,000-Foot View on the Presidential Race
Democrats’ Odds of Retaining Senate Improve
The Most Powerful Special Interest in Washington: The Acronym
Swing Voters and Elastic States
In Wisconsin, Walker Is Likely to Survive Recall
Signs of Shift Among African-Americans on Same-Sex Marriage
Economically, Obama Is No Jimmy Carter
Economy, and Obama, Mired in Down Data
Late Polls Find Walker Is Still Favored
Governors’ Races Can Be a Contrary Indicator for Presidential Elections
Election Forecast: Obama Begins With Tenuous Advantage
Where Electoral Forecasts Agree and Disagree
A Guide to Forecast Model Updates
Statistical Noise in Election Polls
Readers See Obama Slightly Ahead, With Ohio Crucial for Romney
Presidential Geography: New Mexico
What Obama’s Immigration Decision Might Mean for 2012
Hispanic Voters Less Plentiful in Swing States
Outlier Polls Are No Substitute for News
Presidential Geography: Montana
Calculating ‘House Effects’ of Polling Firms
Do Democrats Have a Shot at the House?
Presidential Geography: New Hampshire
The Problems With Forecasting and How to Get Better at It
Details of Health Care Ruling Could Be Lost on Public
Overconfidence Suggested in Supreme Court Predictions
In Health Ruling, Relief for Obama but a Blow to Conventional Wisdom
Presidential Geography: Georgia
June 29: Obama Rises to 67.8 Percent
July 2: Obama’s Lead Holds, but Manufacturing Report Could Mean Trouble
In West Virginia, Coal Means More, Party Less
July 3: No Polling Fireworks on Eve of Holiday
District of Columbia’s Demographics Change, but Democratic Voting Doesn’t
Measuring the Effect of the Economy on Elections
July 5: Waiting for Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
Three Questions After the June Jobs Report
July 6: Obama Forecast Falls Slightly After Jobs News
Utah: Very Republican, but Not Quite as Conservative as It Appears
July 9: Poll Doldrums
July 10: Romney Edges Up After Busy Poll Day
Iowa: Racially Homogeneous, but Politically Diverse
July 11: Has Anything Changed in the Presidential Race?
Why Obama May Be Stronger Than His Approval Ratings
July 12: Some Noisy News, but Little Change in Forecast
July 13: Obama Forecast Buoyed by Stock Rally
In Search for Female Running Mate, a Shortlist for Romney
In Blue New Jersey, Red Spots May Be Sign of the Past
July 14: Another Recount in Florida?
Measuring the Effects of Voter Identification Laws
Keeping Lin Should Make Financial Sense for the Knicks
July 16: Obama Gains Ground From Ohio Poll
Is Romney Overreacting to Bain Attacks?
July 17: Obama’s Re-election Chances Fall on Gloomy G.D.P. Forecast
Let’s Play Medalball!
It’s Not Exactly Sarah Palin’s Alaska
July 18: New Polls, but Little Change in Horse Race
Does Romney Have an Edge From Likely Voter Polls?
July 19: Better Numbers for Romney in Virginia
Would Pawlenty Put Minnesota Within Romney’s Reach?
July 20: Little Change in Presidential Forecast
July 21: Polls Show Forward Movement for Obama in Florida
Do Presidential Polls Break Toward Challengers?
July 23: Is Minnesota a Battleground Again?
State and National Polls Tell Different Tales About State of Campaign
July 24: The Incredibly Steady Presidential Race
July 25: Romney Gains in Tracking Polls
July 26: The Calm Before Critical Economic News
What the New G.D.P. Figures Mean for the Election
July 27: Ohio Polls Show Trouble for Romney
July 28: Missouri Slipping Away From Democrats
Which Olympic Records Get Shattered?
July 30: Forecast Stays Steady With 99 Days to Go
Pennsylvania Flaunts Its Importance
July 31: Obama Forecast Improves on Data Showing Faster Income Growth
Aug. 1: Obama Extends Electoral College Advantage
In Blue Hawaii, Senate Race Offers a Bit of Suspense
Aug. 2: When a Poll That Seems Like News Isn’t
July Jobs Report Likely to Preserve Status Quo
Aug. 3: A Good Week for Obama in Forecast
Aug. 4: Likely No New Blue States in November
Aug. 5: State Polls, National Polls, and Likely Voters
Aug. 6: Pace of Presidential Polling Has Slowed Considerably From 2008
Models, Models, Everywhere
Aug. 7: North Carolina Isn’t Central to Electoral Math
How Romney’s Pick of a Running Mate Could Sway the Outcome
Aug. 8: Colorado and Virginia Flip Places in Forecast
Aug. 9: National Polls Shouldn’t Panic Romney
Another Way for Romney to ‘Go Bold’? Pick a Moderate
Aug. 10: Iowa, the Forgotten Swing State
A Risky Rationale Behind Romney’s Choice of Ryan
Aug. 11: Will Ryan Pick Move the Polls?
What Are Paul Ryan’s Chances of Becoming President?
Could Ryan Tip Wisconsin Toward Romney?
Aug. 13: Polls Have Middling Reviews for Ryan
Aug. 14: The Fog of Polling — and Ryan’s ‘Bounce’ So Far
In Senate Races, Politics Are Local Again
Aug. 15: To Bounce, or Not to Bounce
Oregon, Sitting at the Border of Safe and In Play
Aug. 16: Why I’m Not Buying the Romney Rally
Aug. 17: Does a Bullish Stock Market Predict a Faster Recovery?
In Inelastic South Carolina, Change Is Unlikely
Aug. 18: Obama Leads Big — Among Those Least Likely to Vote
Akin Comments Could Swing Missouri Senate Race
In Picking Ryan, Romney Makes an All-In Move
Aug. 20: When the Polling Gets Weird
In Missouri’s Move to the Right, a Question of How Far
Aug. 21: Romney Showing Improved Results in Swing State Polls
Aug. 22: Keeping Score on a Busy Polling Day
Republican Voters Could Sit Out Missouri Senate Race
Aug. 23: Seven Ways to Evaluate a Poll
In South Dakota, Only the Farm Trumps Conservatism
Aug. 25: An Above-Average ‘Likely Voter Gap’ for Romney
How Will Party Conventions Affect the Presidential Race?
Aug. 26: Little Momentum in Polls in Advance of Conventions
Aug. 27: Michigan Isn’t a Tossup
Aug. 28: A Moment of Polling Clarity
In Florida, Tampa Is Essential to Romney Election Hopes
Measuring a Convention Bounce
Aug. 29: So Much Depends Upon Ohio
Base Turnout Strategy May Be Too Narrow for Romney
In Prudent Speech, Romney Seeks Role as Generic Republican
Aug. 30: Remember the Economy?
Delaware: A Small Example of a Larger Trend
Aug. 31: TV Ratings May Be Leading Indicator of Convention Bounce
Sept. 1: Romney’s Convention Bounce Appears Middling So Far
Sept. 2: Split Verdict in Polls on Romney Convention Bounce
In Looking Back Four Years, Voters Have Short Memories
Sept. 3: Par or Bogey?
In North Carolina, Obama’s 2008 Victory Was Ahead of Schedule
Sept. 4: The Simple Case for Why Obama Is the Favorite
Is Bad Weather Really the Reason to Move Obama’s Speech Indoors?
Sept. 5: Looking Ahead After Charlotte
Obama Would Be Big Favorite With ‘Fired Up’ Base
Sept. 6: A Referendum or a Choice?
Effect of Jobs Numbers on Presidential Race Is Uncertain
Sept. 7: Polls Find Hints of Obama Convention Bounce
Sept. 8: Conventions May Put Obama in Front-Runner’s Position
A Sense of Waiting for Godot for Texas Democrats
Why Weather Forecasters Are Role Models
Sept. 9: Call It as You See It
Sept. 10: Will Obama’s Bounce Hold?
Sept. 11: Florida a True Must-Win for Romney
In Arkansas, the Lost Art of Splitting Tickets
Sept. 12: Polls Since Conventions Point to Decline in ‘Enthusiasm Gap’
Reaction to Libya Attack Could Color Poll Analysis, and Vice Versa
Sept. 13: After Convention Bounce, Holding Obama’s Polls to a Higher Standard
Sept. 14: Obama Forecast Declines on Poor Manufacturing Report
Sept. 15: Waiting on Wisconsin
In Connecticut, Wall Street Community May Limit Obama Victory
Sept. 16: Watching the Clock and Awaiting the Unknown
Sept. 17: Electoral College May Not Help Obama
FiveThirtyEight Forecast: G.O.P. Senate Hopes Slipping
Sept. 18: Obama’s Bounce Erodes in Two Tracking Polls
The End of a Kansas Tradition: Moderation
Obama’s Lead Looks Stronger in Polls That Include Cellphones
Senate Forecast: What Has Gone Wrong for G.O.P. Candidates?
Sept. 19: A Wild Day in the Polls, but Obama Ends Up Ahead
Sept. 20: Obama’s Convention Bounce May Not Be Receding
Sept. 21: Presidential Race Changes, but Swing States Stay the Same
Sept. 22: Little Agreement Among Pollsters on ‘Enthusiasm Gap’
Nebraska G.O.P. Draws a Tougher Map for Obama
Sept. 23: Does Omaha Matter?
The Statistical State of the Presidential Race
Washington State, Women’s Rights and Big Cities
Sept. 24: Deep Red Polling Mystery
Sept. 25: Romney’s Narrow Path Without Ohio
Sept. 26: Could 2012 Be Like 2008?
Growth of Suburban D.C. Is Felt Politically in Maryland
Sept. 27: The Impact of the ‘47 Percent’
Sept. 28: A Circular Relationship Between Political and Economic Views
Poll Averages Have No History of Consistent Partisan Bias
Sept. 29: As Iowa Goes, So May Go Romney’s Chances
Romney’s Faith May Help in Idaho, Where He Doesn’t Need It
Sept. 30: Romney Down a Touchdown?
‘New’ Vermont Is Liberal, but ‘Old’ Vermont Is Still There
New Polls Raise Chance of Electoral College Tie
Oct. 1: Is the Presidential Race Tightening Heading Into the Debates?
Oct. 2: Good News for Romney in National Polls, and Obama in Pennsylvania
First Debate Often Helps Challenger in Polls
Obama Leads, but a Romney Comeback Might Start Out West With Colorado
Polls Show a Strong Debate for Romney
Oct. 3: Romney’s Electoral Challenge, and More on Debate Instant Polls
Oct. 4: Too Soon to Gauge Impact of Debate on Polls
Jobs News Makes Obama’s Case Easier
Oct. 5: Day After Debate, Strong Swing State Polls for Romney
Wyoming, Energy and Libertarianism
Oct. 6: Romney Maintains Poll Momentum
Oct. 7: National Polls Show Signs of Settling
Amid Volatile Polling, Keep an Eye on Election Fundamentals
In California, Growing Diversity First Made Its Mark
Oct. 8: A Great Poll for Romney, in Perspective
Oct. 9: Romney Erases Obama’s Convention Bounce in Forecast
Biden’s Debate Mission: Whip Up Democrats to Blunt Romney’s Gains
Oct. 10: Is Romney Leading Right Now?
Solid South Reversed, but Still Divided by Race
In Polls, Biden Gets a Hold
Oct. 11: Obama’s Swing State ‘Firewall’ Has Brittle Foundation
Oct. 12: Romney Debate Gains Show Staying Power
G.O.P. Senate Hopes Fade, Even as Romney’s Rise, Polls Show
Oct. 13: Arizona and the Spanish-Speaking Vote
An Extra Ingredient in North Dakota Politics: Oil
Oct. 14: Breaking the State-National Poll Stalemate
In Maine, Independent Streak Complicates Political Landscape
Over the Decades, How States Have Shifted
Oct. 15: Distracted by Polling Noise
No Guarantee of Obama Rebound in Second Debate
Falling Prey to the Dangerous Temptation to Cherry-Pick Polls
Instant Reaction Polls Show Narrow Obama Advantage in Second Debate
Oct. 16: Can Polls Exaggerate Bounces?
Rhode Island: The Most Elastic State
Gallup vs. the World
‘The Daily Show’ With Nate Silver
Oct. 18: Obama Gains in Forecast on Resiliency in Swing State Polls
After Brief Role as Battleground, Indiana Exits, Stage Right
Oct. 19: After Romney Gains, Should Obama Concede Florida?
Oct. 20: Calm Day in Forecast, but Volatility Ahead
‘Gender Gap’ Near Historic Highs
Oct. 21: Uncertainty Clouds Polling, but Obama Remains Electoral College Favorite
Referendum or Choice, Which Candidate Will Show Fighting Spirit?
Obama Unlikely to Get Big Debate Bounce, but a Small One Could Matter
Oct. 22: Ohio Has 50-50 Chance of Deciding Election
Why Arizona Isn’t a Battleground State (and Why It May Be Soon)
Oct. 23: The Virtues and Vices of Election Prediction Markets
Oct. 24: In Polls, Romney’s Momentum Seems to Have Stopped
Auto Rescue and Low Home-State Bonus Keep Michigan Out of Play
Oct. 25: The State of the States
Oct. 26: State Poll Averages Usually Call Election Right
Oct. 27: Minnesota Moonlights as Swing State, but Ohio and Virginia Are More Crucial
Oct. 28: In Swing States, a Predictable Election?
Impact of Hurricane Sandy on Election Is Uncertain
In Pennsylvania, the Democratic Lean Is Slight, but Durable
Oct. 29: Polling Slows as Storm Wreaks Havoc
Oct. 30: What State Polls Suggest About the National Popular Vote
Oct. 31: Obama’s Electoral College ‘Firewall’ Holding in Polls
In Nevada, Obama, Ryan and Signs of a New (Democratic-Leaning) Normal
Nov. 1: The Simple Case for Saying Obama Is the Favorite
Revisiting Our February Jobs Prediction
Nov. 2: For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased
Nov. 3: Romney’s Reason to Play for Pennsylvania
In Virginia, It’s Tradition Versus Change
State and National Polls Come Into Better Alignment
Nov. 4: Did Hurricane Sandy Blow Romney Off Course?
In Ohio, Polls Show Benefit of Auto Rescue to Obama
Nov. 5: Late Poll Gains for Obama Leave Romney With Longer Odds
Special Coverage: The 2012 Presidential Election
Stay Tuned…
As Nation and Parties Change, Republicans Are at an Electoral College Disadvantage
Election Night Replay
Which Polls Fared Best (and Worst) in the 2012 Presidential Race
Turnout Steady in Swing States and Down in Others, But Many Votes Remain Uncounted
The Statistical Case Against Cabrera for M.V.P.
Gay Vote Seen as Crucial in Obama’s Victory
Democrats Unlikely to Regain House in 2014
The 2012 Election, in a Relative Sense
Expansion by Big Ten May Bring Small Payoff
Where Obama and Romney Beat Their Polls
Pennsylvania Could Be a Path Forward for G.O.P.
Congressional Proposal Could Create ‘Bubble’ in Tax Code
In Silicon Valley, Technology Talent Gap Threatens G.O.P. Campaigns
Polls Show Below-Average Post-Election Approval Bounce for Obama
When Internal Polls Mislead, a Whole Campaign May Be to Blame
Alaska: Future Swing State?
Two Senate Seats in South Carolina, but Few Democratic Prospects
Marijuana Legalization and States Rights
Why Hillary Clinton Would Be Strong in 2016 (It’s Not Her Favorability Ratings)
A Smart Breakaway for Big East Basketball Schools
In Public ‘Conversation’ on Guns, a Rhetorical Shift
Party Identity in a Gun Cabinet
For Scott Brown, a Third Round in the Battle Against Partisan Gravity
In House of Representatives, an Arithmetic Problem
As Swing Districts Dwindle, Can a Divided House Stand?
Were Obama’s Early Ads Really the Game Changer?