| Amid Lead for Romney in Iowa Poll, Momentum for Santorum | Nate Silver |
| In Iowa, Rick Perry Is Stuck in the Second Tier | Nate Silver |
| Iowa Race Tightens in Final 48 Hours | Nate Silver |
| Lunchtime Polling Update | Nate Silver |
| In Iowa, Six Candidates Compete to Beat Expectations | Nate Silver |
| Why I’d Bet on Santorum (and Against My Model) | Nate Silver |
| Live Blogging the Iowa Caucuses | Nate Silver |
| Romney’s Ugly Win May Be a Charm | Nate Silver |
| Candidates Who Do Better Than Expected Win More Media Attention | John Sides |
| Perry, Perry, Quite Contrary | Nate Silver |
| First Post-Iowa Polls Show Bounce for Santorum | Nate Silver |
| Iowan Casts Doubt on Winner of Caucus | Nate Silver |
| Romney Leads South Carolina Polls | Nate Silver |
| Beating Romney in N.H. Would Require Historic Upset | Nate Silver |
| Vote Result From Disputed Precinct Deemed Official | Nate Silver |
| Diverging Objectives in N.H. for G.O.P. Candidates | Nate Silver |
| Some Signs in Polls That Santorum’s Momentum Has Stalled | Nate Silver |
| Huntsman Has Momentum, but He Lacks Time | Nate Silver |
| Ground Game Determines Candidates’ Strength | Nate Silver |
| New Hampshire Primary Overview and Forecast | Nate Silver |
| Analysis From the New Hampshire Primary | Nate Silver |
| Romney Looks Strong in South Carolina and Beyond | Nate Silver |
| Polls Show Gains for Romney — But Not in South Carolina | Nate Silver |
| Intraparty Attacks Could Be November Liability for Romney | Nate Silver |
| Romney-Obama: No Popularity Contest | Nate Silver |
| Backing of Evangelicals Could Resuscitate Santorum in South Carolina | Nate Silver |
| Before Citing a Poll, Read the Fine Print | Nate Silver |
| Huntsman Withdrawal Should Aid Romney | Nate Silver |
| Reads & Reactions | Micah Cohen |
| National Polls Suggest Romney Is Overwhelming Favorite for G.O.P. Nomination | Nate Silver |
| The Myth of ‘Anybody but Romney’ | Nate Silver |
| Does Gingrich Have Momentum in South Carolina? | Nate Silver |
| Perry’s Voters May Not Flock to Gingrich | Nate Silver |
| Gingrich Tied With Romney in South Carolina Forecast | Nate Silver |
| The Semantics and Statistics of Santorum’s Win in Iowa | Nate Silver |
| Romney’s ‘Prevent Defense’ Yielding Big Gains to Opponents | Nate Silver |
| Nominating Fight Wears on Romney’s Favorability Ratings | Nate Silver |
| Gingrich Is Well-Positioned as South Carolina Votes | Nate Silver |
| South Carolina Primary Overview and Forecast | Nate Silver |
| 2008 South Carolina Primary Benchmarks | Micah Cohen |
| Live Coverage of the South Carolina Primary | Nate Silver |
| Did Gingrich’s Win Break the Paradigm? | Nate Silver |
| New Florida Polls Show Big Swing to Gingrich | Nate Silver |
| Some Signs G.O.P. Establishment’s Backing of Romney Is Tenuous | Nate Silver |
| Reagan Count: Gingrich 55, Romney 6 | Nate Silver |
| The Florida State of Play | Nate Silver |
| Polls Suggest Gingrich’s Support May Have Peaked | Nate Silver |
| Gingrich Enters Debate Needing One More Comeback | Nate Silver |
| In Florida Debate, Gingrich Ignores Lessons of Recent History | Nate Silver |
| Another Check on the Campaign’s Truthiness | Micah Cohen |
| Consensus of Polls Shows Romney Up in Florida | Nate Silver |
| Advantage Romney in February, but Risks Abound | Nate Silver |
| Gingrich Upset Chances Dwindle in New Florida Polls | Nate Silver |
| Polls Diverge, but All Point to a Romney Win | Nate Silver |
| The Incredible Shrinking Primary Bounce | Nate Silver |
| Florida Primary Overview and Forecast | Nate Silver |
| The Political Geography of Florida | Micah Cohen |
| Florida Benchmarks From 2008 | Micah Cohen |
| Live Coverage of the Florida Primary | Nate Silver |
| Romney Wins, but Turnout Lags | Nate Silver |
| Five Paths Forward for G.O.P. Nomination | Nate Silver |
| Did Romney’s Ad Advantage Help in Florida? | John Sides |
| Romney Is a Clear Favorite in Nevada, Arizona and Michigan; Ohio Is a Tossup | Nate Silver |
| Obama’s Magic Number? 150,000 Jobs Per Month | Nate Silver |
| Reads and Reactions: Jobs and G.O.P. Turnout | Micah Cohen |
| The Nevada Caucus: Look for Romney to Win and Paul to Outperform | Nate Silver |
| The G.O.P. Landscape in Nevada | Micah Cohen |
| Nevada Caucus Updates | Nate Silver |
| One Test Left for Romney: The Midwest | Nate Silver |
| What We Learned from Nevada | Nate Silver |
| Political Geography: Colorado | Micah Cohen |
| Political Geography: Minnesota | Micah Cohen |
| The High Stakes in Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri | Nate Silver |
| Live Coverage: Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri | Nate Silver |
| G.O.P. Race Has Hallmarks of Prolonged Battle | Nate Silver |
| Obama’s Jobs Bounce | Nate Silver |
| The Bettor’s Case for Santorum | Nate Silver |
| Maine Caucus Offers an Opportunity for Paul | Nate Silver |
| Jeremy Lin Is No Fluke | Nate Silver |
| How Maine Helps Romney | Nate Silver |
| Could Ron Paul Still Win Maine? | Nate Silver |
| Down in Michigan Polls, Romney Needs to Find His Base | Nate Silver |
| The Fundamentals Now Favor Obama | Nate Silver |
| Romney’s Tenuous Electability Edge | Nate Silver |
| Santorum’s Surge Holds Steady So Far | Nate Silver |
| Santorum and the Emphasis on Social Issues | Nate Silver |
| In Michigan, Momentum for Romney? | Nate Silver |
| Reads and Reactions: Santorum’s Rise | Micah Cohen |
| Romney’s Money Problems | Nate Silver |
| Mormon Voters Raise Romney’s Advantage in Arizona | Nate Silver |
| In Michigan, Is Santorum Sinking or Steadying? | Nate Silver |
| Romney Takes Michigan Forecast Lead | Nate Silver |
| The G.O.P.’s Fuzzy Delegate Math | Nate Silver |
| Stress-Testing Romney’s Michigan Edge | Nate Silver |
| Political Geography: Michigan | Micah Cohen |
| Michigan Forecast Update: Romney’s Lead Looks More Tenuous | Nate Silver |
| Examining Michigan’s Delegate Math | Nate Silver |
| After Many Momentum Shifts, Michigan Is Too Close to Call | Nate Silver |
| Political Geography: Arizona | Micah Cohen |
| Romney Poised for Big Win in Arizona | Nate Silver |
| Live Coverage: the Michigan and Arizona Primaries | Nate Silver |
| The Meaning of Michigan | Nate Silver |
| Democrats Favored to Pick Up Snowe Seat | Nate Silver |
| A Warning on the Accuracy of Primary Polls | Nate Silver |
| Santorum Remains Modest Favorite in Ohio | Nate Silver |
| In Washington Caucus, Expect the Unexpected | Nate Silver |
| Washington Keeps Romney on Winning Track | Nate Silver |
| Why Romney Wants to Be Like Michael Dukakis | Nate Silver |
| State-by-State Analysis: Romney Could Win Majority of Super Tuesday Delegates | Nate Silver |
| Santorum Slumps in Super Tuesday Polls | Nate Silver |
| Super Tuesday Delegate Projection Update | Nate Silver |
| In Caucus States, a Chance for (Almost) Every Candidate | Micah Cohen |
| A Guide to Super Tuesday Possibilities | Nate Silver |
| How Ohio Voted Last Time | Micah Cohen |
| How Tennessee Voted Last Time | Micah Cohen |
| Romney and the Majority Track | Nate Silver |
| Live Coverage: Super Tuesday | Nate Silver |
| A Predictable Super Tuesday | Nate Silver |
| How Would Santorum Do Without Gingrich? | Nate Silver |
| How Daunting Is Santorum’s Delegate Math? | Nate Silver |
| Kansas Offers Santorum Chance for Big Delegate Grab | Nate Silver |
| Political Geography: Kansas | Micah Cohen |
| A Trip Inside the N.C.A.A. Bubble | Micah Cohen |
| In G.O.P. Nomination Race, Geography Has Been Destiny | Nate Silver |
| Approval Ratings, Gas Prices and Statistical Noise | Nate Silver |
| Polling in Deep South Has Posed Challenges | Nate Silver |
| FiveThirtyEight Picks the N.C.A.A. Bracket | Nate Silver |
| Political Geography: Alabama | Micah Cohen |
| Political Geography: Mississippi | Micah Cohen |
| What’s at Stake in Alabama and Mississippi | Nate Silver |
| Live Coverage: Alabama and Mississippi Primaries | Nate Silver |
| Why Is Santorum Overperforming His Poll Numbers? | Nate Silver |
| For Romney and Santorum, a Battle of Chicago Versus Illinois | Nate Silver |
| In Need of a Game Change, Santorum Plays Small Ball | Nate Silver |
| Statehood Support Should Help Romney in Puerto Rico | Micah Cohen |
| In Illinois, Santorum’s Chance at Nomination Is Slipping Away | Nate Silver |
| Political Geography: Illinois | Micah Cohen |
| Romney’s Slightly Exaggerated Advertising Edge | Nate Silver |
| Live Coverage: the Illinois Primary | Nate Silver |
| G.O.P. Nomination Becoming a One-Man Race | Nate Silver |
| Introducing the Romney Magic Numbers Calculator | Nate Silver |
| Etch A Sketch Highlights Missed Opportunities for Romney’s Rivals | Nate Silver |
| Political Geography: Louisiana | Micah Cohen |
| G.O.P. Campaign Could End Soon — But Not in Louisiana | Nate Silver |
| Models Based on ‘Fundamentals’ Have Failed at Predicting Presidential Elections | Nate Silver |
| For a Romney Running Mate, Don’t Bet on a Governor | Nate Silver |
| Polls Show Romney on Track for Win in Wisconsin | Nate Silver |
| In Defense of Presidential Forecasting Models | John Sides |
| Supreme Court May Be Most Conservative in Modern History | Nate Silver |
| For Romney, a Widening Gap Between Urban and Rural Support | Micah Cohen |
| Complacency a Threat to Romney in Wisconsin | Nate Silver |
| Romney Could Net 50 Delegates From Maryland and D.C. | Nate Silver |
| Political Geography: Wisconsin | Micah Cohen |
| Counterintuitive Theories on Obama and Supreme Court Run Against Polling Evidence | Nate Silver |
| Live Coverage of the Wisconsin, Maryland and D.C. Primaries | Nate Silver |
| Romney’s Michigan Win Stands as Climactic Moment in Campaign | Nate Silver |
| Reads and Reactions | Micah Cohen |
| A Living Autopsy of the Ron Paul Campaign | Micah Cohen |
| What Does Santorum’s Future Hold? | Nate Silver |
| Romney’s ‘Empathy Gap’ | John Sides |
| Notes on Poll-Watching, as Shift Toward General Election Season Begins | Nate Silver |
| The General Election Ground Game: A First Look | Micah Cohen |
| Do Romney’s Favorability Ratings Matter? | Nate Silver |
| The Overrated Vice Presidential Home-State Effect | Nate Silver |
| What Do Springtime Polls Tell Us About the General Election? | Micah Cohen |
| Arizona Is (Probably) Not a Swing State | Nate Silver |
| What a Dearth of Small Donations May Mean for Romney | Micah Cohen |
| Lugar Loss Could Provide Pickup Opportunity for Democrats | Nate Silver |
| Is Obama More Popular Than He Should Be? | John Sides |
| North Carolina’s Ban on Gay Marriage Appears Likely to Pass | Nate Silver |
| Has Obama’s Magic Jobs Number Changed? | Nate Silver |
| Reads and Reactions: Reader Comment Edition | Micah Cohen |
| Is Obama More Popular Than He Should Be, Revisited | John Sides |
| Moderate Republicans Fall Away in the Senate | Nate Silver |
| Support for Gay Marriage Outweighs Opposition in Polls | Nate Silver |
| Gay Marriage and the Democratic Base | Nate Silver |
| A 30,000-Foot View on the Presidential Race | Nate Silver |
| Democrats’ Odds of Retaining Senate Improve | Nate Silver |
| The Most Powerful Special Interest in Washington: The Acronym | Micah Cohen |
| Swing Voters and Elastic States | Nate Silver |
| In Wisconsin, Walker Is Likely to Survive Recall | Nate Silver |
| Signs of Shift Among African-Americans on Same-Sex Marriage | Micah Cohen |
| Economically, Obama Is No Jimmy Carter | Nate Silver |
| Economy, and Obama, Mired in Down Data | Nate Silver |
| Late Polls Find Walker Is Still Favored | Nate Silver |
| Governors’ Races Can Be a Contrary Indicator for Presidential Elections | Nate Silver |
| Election Forecast: Obama Begins With Tenuous Advantage | Nate Silver |
| Where Electoral Forecasts Agree and Disagree | Micah Cohen |
| A Guide to Forecast Model Updates | Nate Silver |
| Statistical Noise in Election Polls | Nate Silver |
| Readers See Obama Slightly Ahead, With Ohio Crucial for Romney | Micah Cohen |
| Presidential Geography: New Mexico | Micah Cohen |
| What Obama’s Immigration Decision Might Mean for 2012 | Nate Silver |
| Hispanic Voters Less Plentiful in Swing States | Nate Silver |
| Outlier Polls Are No Substitute for News | Nate Silver |
| Presidential Geography: Montana | Micah Cohen |
| Calculating ‘House Effects’ of Polling Firms | Nate Silver |
| Do Democrats Have a Shot at the House? | Nate Silver |
| Presidential Geography: New Hampshire | Micah Cohen |
| The Problems With Forecasting and How to Get Better at It | Nate Silver |
| Details of Health Care Ruling Could Be Lost on Public | Nate Silver |
| Overconfidence Suggested in Supreme Court Predictions | Nate Silver |
| In Health Ruling, Relief for Obama but a Blow to Conventional Wisdom | Nate Silver |
| Presidential Geography: Georgia | Micah Cohen |
| June 29: Obama Rises to 67.8 Percent | Nate Silver |
| July 2: Obama’s Lead Holds, but Manufacturing Report Could Mean Trouble | Nate Silver |
| In West Virginia, Coal Means More, Party Less | Micah Cohen |
| July 3: No Polling Fireworks on Eve of Holiday | Nate Silver |
| District of Columbia’s Demographics Change, but Democratic Voting Doesn’t | Micah Cohen |
| Measuring the Effect of the Economy on Elections | Nate Silver |
| July 5: Waiting for Jobs, Jobs, Jobs | Nate Silver |
| Three Questions After the June Jobs Report | Nate Silver |
| July 6: Obama Forecast Falls Slightly After Jobs News | Nate Silver |
| Utah: Very Republican, but Not Quite as Conservative as It Appears | Micah Cohen |
| July 9: Poll Doldrums | Nate Silver |
| July 10: Romney Edges Up After Busy Poll Day | Nate Silver |
| Iowa: Racially Homogeneous, but Politically Diverse | Micah Cohen |
| July 11: Has Anything Changed in the Presidential Race? | Nate Silver |
| Why Obama May Be Stronger Than His Approval Ratings | Nate Silver |
| July 12: Some Noisy News, but Little Change in Forecast | Nate Silver |
| July 13: Obama Forecast Buoyed by Stock Rally | Nate Silver |
| In Search for Female Running Mate, a Shortlist for Romney | Nate Silver |
| In Blue New Jersey, Red Spots May Be Sign of the Past | Micah Cohen |
| July 14: Another Recount in Florida? | Nate Silver |
| Measuring the Effects of Voter Identification Laws | Nate Silver |
| Keeping Lin Should Make Financial Sense for the Knicks | Nate Silver |
| July 16: Obama Gains Ground From Ohio Poll | Nate Silver |
| Is Romney Overreacting to Bain Attacks? | Nate Silver |
| July 17: Obama’s Re-election Chances Fall on Gloomy G.D.P. Forecast | Nate Silver |
| Let’s Play Medalball! | Nate Silver |
| It’s Not Exactly Sarah Palin’s Alaska | Micah Cohen |
| July 18: New Polls, but Little Change in Horse Race | Nate Silver |
| Does Romney Have an Edge From Likely Voter Polls? | Nate Silver |
| July 19: Better Numbers for Romney in Virginia | Nate Silver |
| Would Pawlenty Put Minnesota Within Romney’s Reach? | Micah Cohen |
| July 20: Little Change in Presidential Forecast | Nate Silver |
| July 21: Polls Show Forward Movement for Obama in Florida | Nate Silver |
| Do Presidential Polls Break Toward Challengers? | Nate Silver |
| July 23: Is Minnesota a Battleground Again? | Nate Silver |
| State and National Polls Tell Different Tales About State of Campaign | Nate Silver |
| July 24: The Incredibly Steady Presidential Race | Nate Silver |
| July 25: Romney Gains in Tracking Polls | Nate Silver |
| July 26: The Calm Before Critical Economic News | Nate Silver |
| What the New G.D.P. Figures Mean for the Election | Nate Silver |
| July 27: Ohio Polls Show Trouble for Romney | Nate Silver |
| July 28: Missouri Slipping Away From Democrats | Nate Silver |
| Which Olympic Records Get Shattered? | Nate Silver |
| July 30: Forecast Stays Steady With 99 Days to Go | Nate Silver |
| Pennsylvania Flaunts Its Importance | Nate Silver |
| July 31: Obama Forecast Improves on Data Showing Faster Income Growth | Nate Silver |