fivethirtyeightindex

Explore 21,350 pages from fivethirtyeight.com preserved by the Internet Archive

June 2012

Economy, and Obama, Mired in Down Data
Late Polls Find Walker Is Still Favored
Governors’ Races Can Be a Contrary Indicator for Presidential Elections
Election Forecast: Obama Begins With Tenuous Advantage
Where Electoral Forecasts Agree and Disagree
A Guide to Forecast Model Updates
Statistical Noise in Election Polls
Readers See Obama Slightly Ahead, With Ohio Crucial for Romney
Presidential Geography: New Mexico
What Obama’s Immigration Decision Might Mean for 2012
Hispanic Voters Less Plentiful in Swing States
Outlier Polls Are No Substitute for News
Presidential Geography: Montana
Calculating ‘House Effects’ of Polling Firms
Do Democrats Have a Shot at the House?
Presidential Geography: New Hampshire
The Problems With Forecasting and How to Get Better at It
Details of Health Care Ruling Could Be Lost on Public
Overconfidence Suggested in Supreme Court Predictions
In Health Ruling, Relief for Obama but a Blow to Conventional Wisdom
Presidential Geography: Georgia
June 29: Obama Rises to 67.8 Percent