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September 2012

Aug. 31: TV Ratings May Be Leading Indicator of Convention Bounce
Sept. 1: Romney’s Convention Bounce Appears Middling So Far
Sept. 2: Split Verdict in Polls on Romney Convention Bounce
In Looking Back Four Years, Voters Have Short Memories
Sept. 3: Par or Bogey?
In North Carolina, Obama’s 2008 Victory Was Ahead of Schedule
Sept. 4: The Simple Case for Why Obama Is the Favorite
Is Bad Weather Really the Reason to Move Obama’s Speech Indoors?
Sept. 5: Looking Ahead After Charlotte
Obama Would Be Big Favorite With ‘Fired Up’ Base
Sept. 6: A Referendum or a Choice?
Effect of Jobs Numbers on Presidential Race Is Uncertain
Sept. 7: Polls Find Hints of Obama Convention Bounce
Sept. 8: Conventions May Put Obama in Front-Runner’s Position
A Sense of Waiting for Godot for Texas Democrats
Why Weather Forecasters Are Role Models
Sept. 9: Call It as You See It
Sept. 10: Will Obama’s Bounce Hold?
Sept. 11: Florida a True Must-Win for Romney
In Arkansas, the Lost Art of Splitting Tickets
Sept. 12: Polls Since Conventions Point to Decline in ‘Enthusiasm Gap’
Reaction to Libya Attack Could Color Poll Analysis, and Vice Versa
Sept. 13: After Convention Bounce, Holding Obama’s Polls to a Higher Standard
Sept. 14: Obama Forecast Declines on Poor Manufacturing Report
Sept. 15: Waiting on Wisconsin
In Connecticut, Wall Street Community May Limit Obama Victory
Sept. 16: Watching the Clock and Awaiting the Unknown
Sept. 17: Electoral College May Not Help Obama
FiveThirtyEight Forecast: G.O.P. Senate Hopes Slipping
Sept. 18: Obama’s Bounce Erodes in Two Tracking Polls
The End of a Kansas Tradition: Moderation
Obama’s Lead Looks Stronger in Polls That Include Cellphones
Senate Forecast: What Has Gone Wrong for G.O.P. Candidates?
Sept. 19: A Wild Day in the Polls, but Obama Ends Up Ahead
Sept. 20: Obama’s Convention Bounce May Not Be Receding
Sept. 21: Presidential Race Changes, but Swing States Stay the Same
Sept. 22: Little Agreement Among Pollsters on ‘Enthusiasm Gap’
Nebraska G.O.P. Draws a Tougher Map for Obama
Sept. 23: Does Omaha Matter?
The Statistical State of the Presidential Race
Washington State, Women’s Rights and Big Cities
Sept. 24: Deep Red Polling Mystery
Sept. 25: Romney’s Narrow Path Without Ohio
Sept. 26: Could 2012 Be Like 2008?
Growth of Suburban D.C. Is Felt Politically in Maryland
Sept. 27: The Impact of the ‘47 Percent’
Sept. 28: A Circular Relationship Between Political and Economic Views
Poll Averages Have No History of Consistent Partisan Bias
Sept. 29: As Iowa Goes, So Go Romney's Chances?
Sept. 29: As Iowa Goes, So May Go Romney’s Chances
Romney’s Faith May Help in Idaho, Where He Doesn’t Need It