2009 (1,187 entries)

A Brief Comment on the 50-State Strategy
A Proud Moment for America
A Webpage Someone Else Should Start...
Alabama ♥s Obama
BAM! POP! POW! House Debates Stimulus Bill
Barack Obama: The First Urban President?
Be Careful Where You Get Your Stimulus
Bennet, Denver Schools Chief, Reportedly Chosen as Colorado's Next Senator
Blago Impeached; Tide Turning (Again) on Burris?
Can Franken Give Burris His Daily Affirmation?
Could Roland Burris Be Re-Elected?
Counties to Coleman: What Part of 'No' Didn't You Understand?
Daddy, Where Do Senators Come From?
Did Caroline Ever Really Want It?
Did the <span style="font-style:italic;">Wall Street Journal</span> Fire their Fact-Checkers?
Do Retiring Republicans Mellow Out?
Feingold Introduces 28th Amendment
Fili-Buster Watch
FiveThirtyEight Hits Washington
Flavor of the Day
For Democrats, Best Choice May be a Republican
For House Republicans, Zero is the Loneliest Number
Franken Jumps Out to 225-Vote Lead on Strength of Absentee Ballots
Have Republicans Lost Their Way on Taxes?
History May -- or May Not -- Judge Bush More Kindly
In Minnesota, End of the Beginning Starts Today
Intellectual Dishonesty (Gasp!) from a Conservative Economist
Is Coleman's Goal a Do-Over?
Is Jesse Jackson Jr. Electable?
Is Kennedy's Loss Conservatives' Gain?
Is There a Serious Conservative Argument Against the Stimulus?
Is Tom Coburn a Closet Progressive?
Just Five Red States Left?
Mapping the New Senate
Michael Steele's Got Game
Minnesota Recount Trial Begins Momentarily
Missouri's Bond Will Retire, Creating Showdown in Show-Me State
More Reading on Burris, and Another Attempt at Legal Analysis
Most Americans Oppose Seating Burris, But Reid's Options are Few
Obama's <span style="font-style:italic;">Price is Right</span> Negotiating Strategy?
Obama's Indifference on Tax Cuts
Obama: Highest Initial Approval For Elected President?
Obama: More Political Capital Than Reagan?
On Harry's Hindsight
On Stimulus, It's Easy Being Green
Palin v. Murkowski Cold War Heating Up? Polls Show Contradictory Results.
Palin's Popularity Pickle
Pick Your Poison, Arlen
Progressive Democrats Vote for Bailout; Blue Dogs Don't
Roland Burris is My Senator
Senate Rankings, January 2009 Edition
Shades of Roosevelt in Obama's Address
Should Democrats Beware Republicans Bearing Gifts?
Should the Democrats Fear Rob Portman?
Signs of Democratic Coattails in SCHIP Vote?
Smarter than the Average Bears?
So Just Who <span style="font-style:italic;">Did</span> Vote For The Bailout?
Stimulus Passes House With NO Republican Support -- Zip, Zilch, Nada
The End of the Beginning
The Republican Death Spiral
The Republican Death Spiral, in Graphic Form
Tim Kaine Reportedly To Head DNC
Time To Give Up on "Bipartisan" Stimulus?
What Are the Chances of a Depression?
What is Coleman Fighting For?
What's David Paterson Waiting For?
Where's the Roland Burris Poll?
Why Are There No Black Senators?
Mapping the New Senate
More Reading on Burris, and Another Attempt at Legal Analysis
Pick Your Poison, Arlen
Bennet, Denver Schools Chief, Reportedly Chosen as Colorado’s Next Senator
In Minnesota, End of the Beginning Starts Today
Is Jesse Jackson Jr. Electable?
Franken Jumps Out to 225-Vote Lead on Strength of Absentee Ballots
Can Franken Give Burris His Daily Affirmation?
Tim Kaine Reportedly To Head DNC
Why Are There No Black Senators?
Did the Wall Street Journal Fire their Fact-Checkers?
The Good News for Coleman…
Where’s the Roland Burris Poll?
Be Careful Where You Get Your Stimulus
Party Like It’s 538!
Most Americans Oppose Seating Burris, But Reid’s Options are Few
Senate Rankings, January 2009 Edition
Palin v. Murkowski Cold War Heating Up? Polls Show Contradictory Results.
Shameless Self-Promotion
On Harry’s Hindsight
What Are the Chances of a Depression?
Missouri’s Bond Will Retire, Creating Showdown in Show-Me State
On Stimulus, It’s Easy Being Green
Daddy, Where Do Senators Come From?
Blago Impeached; Tide Turning (Again) on Burris?
Obama’s Price is Right Negotiating Strategy?
Obama’s Indifference on Tax Cuts
Intellectual Dishonesty (Gasp!) from a Conservative Economist
Counties to Coleman: What Part of ‘No’ Didn’t You Understand?
Is There a Serious Conservative Argument Against the Stimulus?
Should the Democrats Fear Rob Portman?
Roland Burris is My Senator
Do Retiring Republicans Mellow Out?
Palin’s Popularity Pickle
What’s David Paterson Waiting For?
Signs of Democratic Coattails in SCHIP Vote?
A Webpage Someone Else Should Start…
History May — or May Not — Judge Bush More Kindly
Have Republicans Lost Their Way on Taxes?
Is Coleman’s Goal a Do-Over?
Is Tom Coburn a Closet Progressive?
Barack Obama: The First Urban President?
Obama: Highest Initial Approval For Elected President?
FiveThirtyEight Hits Washington
A Proud Moment for America
Flavor of the Day
Shades of Roosevelt in Obama’s Address
A Brief Comment on the 50-State Strategy
Did Caroline Ever Really Want It?
What is Coleman Fighting For?
Progressive Democrats Vote for Bailout; Blue Dogs Don’t
The End of the Beginning
Is Kennedy’s Loss Conservatives’ Gain?
Shameless Self-Promotion, Part II
Obama: More Political Capital Than Reagan?
Feingold Introduces 28th Amendment
Smarter than the Average Bears?
Minnesota Recount Trial Begins Momentarily
So Just Who Did Vote For The Bailout?
Alabama ♥s Obama
Time To Give Up on “Bipartisan” Stimulus?
Fili-Buster Watch
Just Five Red States Left?
BAM! POP! POW! House Debates Stimulus Bill
Stimulus Passes House With NO Republican Support — Zip, Zilch, Nada
For House Republicans, Zero is the Loneliest Number
The Republican Death Spiral
The Republican Death Spiral, in Graphic Form
Should Democrats Beware Republicans Bearing Gifts?
Could Roland Burris Be Re-Elected?
For Democrats, Best Choice May be a Republican
Michael Steele’s Got Game
"By August 31, 2010, Our Combat Mission in Iraq WIll End"
"Time for Talk Over," White House Tone Changes on Stimulus
A Starry-Eyed Look at the 2012 Republican Field
A Thousand Little Pieces
A [Bleeping] Valuable Thing
Absentee Ballots Unlikely to Save Coleman
Americans Growing Kinder to Bud
BREAKING: Beer No Longer Recession-Proof
BREAKING: Press Corps Incredulous That Obama Budget Reflects Campaign Promises
Conflicting Reports on Sebelius to HHS; Still a Strong Frontrunner
Did Race Win the Election for Obama?
Did a Four-Letter Word Save the Stimulus?
Do the Republicans Have the Votes for a Stimulus Filibuster?
FiveThirty ... Nine?
For Entertainment Purposes Only
George F. Will Takes on Science, Loses Credibility
George Lakoff on The Obama Code
Give Geithner a Break
Gracious Rahm Walks Back Harsh Gregg Press Release
Heroes and Goats
IL-05: Feigenholtz Looks Like Favorite in Emanuel's Old District
IL-05: Rahm's Middle Finger
In Declining Approval Ratings, Lessons for Obama
In Post-Speech Afterglow, Obama Lays Out Regulatory Reform Principles
In This Corner, Sarah Palin...
Introducing...
Jeff Gannon, We Hardly Knew Ye
Jindal Versus the Volcano
Land of a Thousand Liebermans
Money Week Begins; White House Careful; the “Dave” President?
OFA 2.0, and A Stimulating "Working Session" in Maryland
OMB Director Orszag Budget Press Conference
Obama Dumps Gregg -- Hard And Angry
Obama Hits the Road to Sell Stimulus, Steps Up Pressure on Key Senators
Obama Joint Session (and Jindal Reply) Liveblog
Obama Joint Session Speech Preview
Obama Sells Stimulus; People Buy
On Stimulus, Democrats Beating GOP On Party Unity
One-Two-Three-Four: What is Bipartisanship Good For?
Oscars Liveblog
Quick Internship Update
Reality Check: Republicans Had No Intention of Compromise on Stimulus
Religion, Income, and Voting
Republican Governor Panders on Gay Rights
Rich and Poor Still Vote Differently in Red and Blue States
Santelli Smackdown Shows White House Foil Strategy
Senate Rankings Interim Update
Senate Rankings, February 2009 Edition
Should Obama Have Asked For More?
Some Post-Oscar Thoughts on Forecasting
Sound and Fury, Signifying -- What, Exactly?
Sports Fans as Potential Republicans?
Steele's Idle Threat
Stimulus Compromise Overcomes Senate Filibuster, 61-36
Sun Rises, Market Falls
Taking Louisiana By Storm?
The Clinton Economic Record and Rising Tides
The Most Powerful Women in America
The Paradox of Political Capital
The Political Specter-um
The Proliferation of "Pork"
The Real Roland Burris Question
The Stimulus: Still Popular After All These Weeks
The Two Progressivisms
Things I Think We Think We Know About the Banking Crisis...
What Stimulus Messaging Lessons Portend for the Health Care Debate
White House Pleads for Patience on TARP
White House Projects Republican "Nay" Districts To Net More Stimulus Jobs
Why Barack Has a Blackberry
Why Does A Person Become a Republican?
Why We're Probably in For a Long Recession
Will Omitted Key Context in Ice Age Quote
in re: Sun Rises, Market Falls
re: Mortgage Bailout
Do the Republicans Have the Votes for a Stimulus Filibuster?
The Most Powerful Women in America
The Stimulus: Still Popular After All These Weeks
Absentee Ballots Unlikely to Save Coleman
Jeff Gannon, We Hardly Knew Ye
The Paradox of Political Capital
Why Barack Has a Blackberry
The Proliferation of “Pork”
“Time for Talk Over,” White House Tone Changes on Stimulus
In This Corner, Sarah Palin…
On Stimulus, Democrats Beating GOP On Party Unity
Obama Hits the Road to Sell Stimulus, Steps Up Pressure on Key Senators
In Declining Approval Ratings, Lessons for Obama
Senate Rankings, February 2009 Edition
Should Obama Have Asked For More?
A [Bleeping] Valuable Thing
Did a Four-Letter Word Save the Stimulus?
OFA 2.0, and A Stimulating “Working Session” in Maryland
Stimulus Compromise Overcomes Senate Filibuster, 61-36
One-Two-Three-Four: What is Bipartisanship Good For?
Why We’re Probably in For a Long Recession
Taking Louisiana By Storm?
FiveThirtyEight DC Internship
Give Geithner a Break
White House Pleads for Patience on TARP
Obama Sells Stimulus; People Buy
Obama Dumps Gregg — Hard And Angry
Gracious Rahm Walks Back Harsh Gregg Press Release
A Thousand Little Pieces
The Political Specter-um
Republican Governor Panders on Gay Rights
The Two Progressivisms
George F. Will Takes on Science, Loses Credibility
The Real Roland Burris Question
Will Omitted Key Context in Ice Age Quote
What Stimulus Messaging Lessons Portend for the Health Care Debate
Sound and Fury, Signifying — What, Exactly?
The Clinton Economic Record and Rising Tides
IL-05: Feigenholtz Looks Like Favorite in Emanuel’s Old District
White House Projects Republican “Nay” Districts To Net More Stimulus Jobs
Reality Check: Republicans Had No Intention of Compromise on Stimulus
Things I Think We Think We Know About the Banking Crisis…
For Entertainment Purposes Only
BREAKING: Beer No Longer Recession-Proof
re: Mortgage Bailout
Senate Rankings Interim Update
Conflicting Reports on Sebelius to HHS; Still a Strong Frontrunner
Land of a Thousand Liebermans
Heroes and Goats
Santelli Smackdown Shows White House Foil Strategy
Sun Rises, Market Falls
Americans Growing Kinder to Bud
Oscars Liveblog
Some Post-Oscar Thoughts on Forecasting
Introducing…
Money Week Begins; White House Careful; the “Dave” President?
Rich and Poor Still Vote Differently in Red and Blue States
A Starry-Eyed Look at the 2012 Republican Field
George Lakoff on The Obama Code
Steele’s Idle Threat
in re: Sun Rises, Market Falls
Obama Joint Session Speech Preview
Obama Joint Session Speech Preview
Obama Joint Session (and Jindal Reply) Liveblog
Jindal Versus the Volcano
Sports Fans as Potential Republicans?
In Post-Speech Afterglow, Obama Lays Out Regulatory Reform Principles
Quick Internship Update
FiveThirty … Nine?
OMB Director Orszag Budget Press Conference
Did Race Win the Election for Obama?
Did Race Win the Election for Obama?
BREAKING: Press Corps Incredulous That Obama Budget Reflects Campaign Promises
IL-05: Rahm's Middle Finger
IL-05: Rahm’s Middle Finger
“By August 31, 2010, Our Combat Mission in Iraq WIll End”
Why Does A Person Become a Republican?
Religion, Income, and Voting
<span style="font-style: italic;">Dow 36,000</span> Guy Accuses Obama of Sabotaging Economy
A Good Time To Die?
A Nation Neither United Nor Divided
AIG: How a Meme Spreads
Americans Losing Their Faith in Faith ... And Everything Else
Are Republicans Healthier Than Democrats?
Cherry-Picker-in-Chief
Democrat Murphy Now Favored in NY-20 Special Election?
Do Americans Want to Nationalize the Banks?
EFCA's Backers Still Have Work To Do
Extrapolation Extravaganza Tonight in New York's 20th
FiveThirtyEight Interviews Sen. Jon Tester
FiveThirtyEight Joins East Coast Media Elite
GM's Problems are 50 Years in the Making
GOP Leadership Splits As Bailout Tax Passes House
Generic Ballot Blues
Gold(farb) Star for Effort
Health Care > Environment? It's the Economy, Stupid.
Hoping He Fails?
How Did White People Vote?
How Did the Rich (and the Poor) Vote in 2008?
How's He Doing?
IL-05: Quigley Appears Headed for Congress
In Defense of Vijay, The Wall Street Banker
In First Test of “Name and Shame,” Namers Losing So Far
Is Jindal's Demise Gingrich's Gain?
Is the AIG Bonus Blowout Hurting Obama?
It's Not About Appalachia
Millionaires for McCain, Billionaires for Obama . . . or Maybe Not
More on Obama's Vote Among Nonblacks
Murphy Closes Gap in NY-20, Tedisco Opposes Stimulus
NASDAQ Now Up Under Obama Presidency
NCAA Hoops Projections
No Electoral College in 2012?
Obama Bets Big on Sweeping Health Care Reform in 2009
Pre-election Polls and Exit Polls
Predicting What You Already Knew
Presidential Results by Congressional District
Rich and Poor Voters in 2008
Rush is the Least of the Republicans' Problems
Senate Rankings, March 2009 Edition
Snow Day
Steele’s Fate Likely Hinges on NY-20
Stewart Destroys CNBC, Cramer, Disses “Doucheborough”
Technical Question
The Best Argument You'll Read for Bank "Nationalization"
The Bonus Tax is Dead; Long Live the Bonus Tax
The Life and Times of EFCA, Part I
The Manic-Depressive Market
The Missing $1,000,000 Tax Bracket
The Mortgage Monster and the Blame Game
The New Terri Schiavo?
The Pledge
The Real Republican Road to Recovery
The Right Way to Fix Wall Street's Pay
The Stock Market Rally and the Geithner Plan
The World Owned the Election Too
The Worst Pollster in the World Strikes Again
This is Not a Liveblog
Throw Out Baby, Bail Out Bathwater
What the Stock Market <span style="font-style:italic;">Really</span> Thinks About the Economy
When Will Voters Blame Obama?
White House to Passive-Aggressive Hill Republicans: Put Up or Shut Up
White House v. Limbaugh: Grand Theatre for an Audience of Three (or Four)
Who Sits Where?
Why AIG Paid the "Bonuses"
Why Is Dianne Feinstein Stiffing Labor?
Why Was AIG's Stock Up 66% Today?
Yes, Obama's Approval Ratings Are Declining. What Did You Expect?
re: Minnesota
“Democrat Party" Decrier Rips Admin for “Childish” Limbaugh Strategy
Is Jindal’s Demise Gingrich’s Gain?
Snow Day
FiveThirtyEight Interviews Sen. Jon Tester
The Manic-Depressive Market
How Did the Rich (and the Poor) Vote in 2008?
White House v. Limbaugh: Grand Theatre for an Audience of Three (or Four)
IL-05: Quigley Appears Headed for Congress
Predicting What You Already Knew
re: Minnesota
Rush is the Least of the Republicans’ Problems
When Will Voters Blame Obama?
“Democrat Party” Decrier Rips Admin for “Childish” Limbaugh Strategy
Obama Bets Big on Sweeping Health Care Reform in 2009
What the Stock Market Really Thinks About the Economy
Rich and Poor Voters in 2008
Hoping He Fails?
Senate Rankings, March 2009 Edition
Millionaires for McCain, Billionaires for Obama . . . or Maybe Not
Who Sits Where?
Dow 36,000 Guy Accuses Obama of Sabotaging Economy
Do Americans Want to Nationalize the Banks?
Steele’s Fate Likely Hinges on NY-20
How’s He Doing?
The Missing $1,000,000 Tax Bracket
The Life and Times of EFCA, Part I
A Nation Neither United Nor Divided
Are Republicans Healthier Than Democrats?
The Best Argument You’ll Read for Bank “Nationalization”
Americans Losing Their Faith in Faith ... And Everything Else
Americans Losing Their Faith in Faith … And Everything Else
White House to Passive-Aggressive Hill Republicans: Put Up or Shut Up
Stewart Destroys CNBC, Cramer, Disses “Doucheborough”
Yes, Obama’s Approval Ratings Are Declining. What Did You Expect?
Gold(farb) Star for Effort
Technical Question
In First Test of “Name and Shame,” Namers Losing So Far
Why Was AIG’s Stock Up 66% Today?
EFCA’s Backers Still Have Work To Do
Murphy Closes Gap in NY-20, Tedisco Opposes Stimulus
The New Terri Schiavo?
AIG: How a Meme Spreads
NASDAQ Now Up Under Obama Presidency
Cherry-Picker-in-Chief
Why AIG Paid the “Bonuses”
NCAA Hoops Projections
GOP Leadership Splits As Bailout Tax Passes House
The Pledge
Throw Out Baby, Bail Out Bathwater
Health Care > Environment? It’s the Economy, Stupid.
Presidential Results by Congressional District
Is the AIG Bonus Blowout Hurting Obama?
It’s Not About Appalachia
The Stock Market Rally and the Geithner Plan
More on Obama’s Vote Among Nonblacks
Generic Ballot Blues
The Mortgage Monster and the Blame Game
The Worst Pollster in the World Strikes Again
This is Not a Liveblog
The Bonus Tax is Dead; Long Live the Bonus Tax
How Did White People Vote?
In Defense of Vijay, The Wall Street Banker
The Right Way to Fix Wall Street’s Pay
Pre-election Polls and Exit Polls
A Good Time To Die?
The Real Republican Road to Recovery
Democrat Murphy Now Favored in NY-20 Special Election?
Why Is Dianne Feinstein Stiffing Labor?
Why Is Dianne Feinstein Stiffing Labor?
FiveThirtyEight Joins East Coast Media Elite
FiveThirtyEight Joins East Coast Media Elite
No Electoral College in 2012?
No Electoral College in 2012?
GM’s Problems are 50 Years in the Making
The World Owned the Election Too
A Tied Congressional Election Every 400 Years or So
Are the Republicans Going Galt?
Comparing Election Outcomes to Poll Aggregates, by State
Plurality of New Yorkers Support Same Sex Marriage
Revisionist History in NY-20
Should the Democrats Primary Chris Dodd?
What the NY-20 "Tie" Means
Whigs, Federalists Strongly Differ on Support for Obama
Why Marijuana Legalization is Gaining Momentum
Will Iowans Uphold Gay Marriage?
Extrapolation Extravaganza Tonight in New York’s 20th
What the NY-20 “Tie” Means
A Tied Congressional Election Every 400 Years or So
Should the Democrats Primary Chris Dodd?
Comparing Election Outcomes to Poll Aggregates, by State
Revisionist History in NY-20
Will Iowans Uphold Gay Marriage?
Why Marijuana Legalization is Gaining Momentum
Whigs, Federalists Strongly Differ on Support for Obama
Government Spending, Equality and Development
Irrationality versus Naivete
NY-20: Absentee Ballot Distribution Appears to Favor Murphy (D)
The Pick-Your-Poison Paradox
Gay Marriage in the District: Danger Will (and Steve) Robinson?
Why I’ve Been Ignoring the Minnesota Recount
Fact and Fiction on Gay Marriage Polling
What Do Americans Think About Gay Rights and Discrimination?
The Have-Nots Aren’t Having It
Senate Rankings, April 2009 Edition
Do Blue State Have Higher Unemployment Rates?
What Would a “Bipartisan” Obama Look Like? (Hint: A Lot Like the One We’re Seeing)
The Partisan Public (Exhibit #14612)
Is Norm Coleman Getting His Money’s Worth?
No PirateBump™ for Obama
Carrots and Sticks for Specter: A Model for Democrats?
Battle of Saratoga, Frivolous Challenges Won’t Save Tedisco
Swiss Banks, Taxes and Tea Parties
How Many Attended The Tea Parties?
“Tea Party” Protests Appear to Draw At Least 250,000
Red and Blue Economies?
Tea Party Nonpartisan Attendance Estimates: Now 300,000+
Tea Party Nonpartisan Attendance Estimates: Now 300,000+
Hey Rick, Can We Talk?
NY-20: Challenged Ballots Will Aid Murphy; No Apprent Path to Victory for Tedisco
NY-20: Challenged Ballots Will Aid Murphy; No Apprent Path to Victory for Tedisco
National Elections Getting Closer; Individual Congressional Elections Getting Less Close
When Does ‘Close’ Become Too-Close-to-Call?
Plurality of New Yorkers Support Same Sex Marriage
Are the Republicans Going Galt?
When Hope is the Enemy of Change
The Pope and the Planet
Senate Fundraising All-Stars
Why Doesn’t Mike Huckabee Get More Respect?
Messing with Texas
Race and the 2008 Election, Revisited
Murphy Wins in NY-20: Let the Spin Begin!
The Environmental Inverted Pyramid
Were the Tea Parties Really a Libertarian Thing?
Recession, Succession, and Secession
Explaining the Contradictory Torture Polling
Specter’s Switch More Insult Than Injury to GOP
What Kind of Democrat Will Arlen Specter Be?
More on the Contradictory Torture Polling
But Now He’s *Our* No-Good, Dirty Rotten Bastard
Six Degrees of Swine Flu
Diseases and Calcuations of Social Network Size
Party of No(body)?
Two National Polls, for First Time, Show Plurality Support for Gay Marriage
Carbon Taxes vs. Cap and Trade
Current Senators Voted 36-11 to Confirm Sotomayor in 1998
Debunking the So-called Human Development Index of U.S. States
Expenditure Cascades
Having Daughters Rather Than Sons Makes You More Liberal
Hooray! The Second Derivative of the Unemployment Rate Improved!
Hope for Fundamental Health Care Reform?
How Soldiers Really Vote
Is Public Opinion Changing on Abortion?
It Ain't Easy Being a Governor
Looking Ahead to 2010 Elections, Part 2
Looking Ahead to 2010 Elections, Part 6
News Flash: Car Dealers are Republicans (It's Called a Control Group, People)
Operation Gringo, Cont'd.
Random, Pretentious Observations from Europe
Roberts > Sotomayor > Alito?
Senate Rankings, May 2009 Edition
Sotomayor Is Reportedly Obama's Court Pick
Why Spending Cuts Aren't the Answer
Bunning Retirement Might Not Save GOP in Kentucky
Is Sestak the Right Choice for the Left?
The Republican Party ID Decline, Revisited
Supreme Court Picks: Little Peril for Presidential Approval
Senate Rankings, May 2009 Edition
What the [Bleep] Do We Know?
The Obama Bull Market?
In Which I Defend a Republican Pollster
Is T-Paw Taking One for the Team?
How to Get Elected to Congress With 11,956 Votes
Is America Still a Car Culture?
Sestak-Type Intraparty Challenges are Rare, But Not Without Precedent
It Ain’t Easy Being a Governor
Why Didn’t Ridge Run?
Hooray! The Second Derivative of the Unemployment Rate Improved!
Bush May Haunt Republicans for Generations
Elevated Risk of Tweets
The Next Supreme Court Justice
Mike Huckabee’s Flawed Logic on the GOP’s Future
Forecast: On Climate Change, Cooler Temperatures Bring Hotter Air
How Did White People Vote? How Did Rich and Poor People Vote?
Should Democrats Be Rooting for Charlie Crist?
Update from Sierra Leone
The Decline of The Conservative Intellectual
Why Obama Wants the Olympics
Introduction to the European Parliament Elections
Will Crist Get Toomeyed?
Whip Count: Gay Marriage Faces Uphill Odds in New York Senate
Is Public Opinion Changing on Abortion?
Arlen Specter Now 67% Democrat
Travel Advisory
Obama a Bystander at Notre Dame
Cash for Clunkers?
More About the Unbearable Lightness of Abortion Polls
Some Thoughts on Census Adjustment
Abortion Poll Roundup
Blogosphere Reality Has a Liberal Bias
Overcoming Distributional Objections to Greater Reliance on Market Pricing
Governors of Large States are Less Popular
Looking Ahead to 2010 Elections, Part 1
Democrats and Conservative Republicans Join in Attacking New Jersey’s “Big Boy”
Looking Ahead to 2010 Elections, Part 2
Why Spending Cuts Aren’t the Answer
Having Daughters Rather Than Sons Makes You More Liberal
Carbon Taxes vs. Cap and Trade
Redistricting Battlegrounds
Looking Ahead to 2010 Elections, Part 3
Debunking the So-called Human Development Index of U.S. States
Would a Carbon Tax Make Higher Gasoline Taxes Unnecessary?
Looking Ahead to 2010 Elections, Part 4
How Soldiers Really Vote
Looking Ahead to 2010 Elections, Part 5
The Ultimate Tax on Harmful Activity?
Short-Run and Long-Run Stimulus in a Single Measure
Party Discipline in the U.S. Senate and European Parliament
CNN Poll: Record Support for Roe v Wade?
Expenditure Cascades
Random, Pretentious Observations from Europe
Looking Ahead to 2010 Elections, Part 6
Sotomayor Is Reportedly Obama’s Court Pick
Current Senators Voted 36-11 to Confirm Sotomayor in 1998
Hispanics Back Gay Marriage at Same Rates as Whites
Sotomayor Scorecard on Day 1
Grandmother of World’s 23rd Best Economist Posthumously Offended by Sonia Sotomayor’s Spending Habits; Will Obama Withdraw Nomination?
omg wuz adam robbed?
Washington Times: Supremes Uphold Sotomayor Opinions at Above-Average Rate
Dodd Vulnerable to Primary Challenge
News Flash: Car Dealers are Republicans (It’s Called a Control Group, People)
Update on Mankiw’s Grandmother
Roberts > Sotomayor > Alito?
Operation Gringo: Can the Republicans Sacrifice the Hispanic Vote and Win the White House?
Where Does the Hispanic Vote Really Matter?
Operation Gringo, Cont’d.
Hope for Fundamental Health Care Reform?
How the Republicans Can Win It All Back
Carbon Offsets: Better than Critics Think?
On Moon Landings, Michelle Malkin, P-Values, the Clintons, and the Magical Mystery Dealergate Conspiracy Theory
Another Iranian Oddity
Brits and Dutch Vote Today; Skeptics Leading
Cap-and-Trade, State-by-State
Control of Virginia Redistricting Hinges on Races Far Under the Radar
GOP Has Always Been Dominated by White Voters
Gay Marriage, State by State: A Tipping Point?
George F. Will Admits Public Option Will Cut Costs
Good Morning, Tehran
Gubernatorial Power Rankings: Crist, Freudenthal Top List
How To Get 63% of Americans to Support Gay Marriage. (Maybe.)
Iran Does Have Some Fishy Numbers
Iranian Leadership Split On Response
Is Gay Marriage Coming or Going in NY State?
Karroubi's Unlucky 7's?
Leader Limbaugh: Chalk One Up to Obama, DNC
NRCC Bullish About Taking Down Rookie and Sophomore Dems
New York's Gillibrand Has Become Lockstep Liberal
Obama Approval Rating Exceeds 50% in States Containing 445 Electoral Votes
Pro-Life States Have Lower Abortion Rates
Sanford to Minneapolis? (Nope -- Argentina?)
Sanford: More Resignation Pressure than other Pantsless Pols
Senate Rankings, June 2009 Edition
Special Interest Money Means Longer Odds for Public Option
Statistical Report Purporting to Show Rigged Iranian Election Is Flawed
The Ayatollah's Flawed Logic
Voting With Their Feet?
Worst. Damage Control. Ever.
Would Mike Dukakis Have Won the 2008 Election?
Senate Rankings, June 2009 Edition
GOP Has Always Been Dominated by White Voters
Would Mike Dukakis Have Won the 2008 Election?
Pro-Life States Have Lower Abortion Rates
Targeting House Democratic Freshmen, Part 1
Targeting House Democratic Freshmen, Part 1
Targeting House Democratic Freshmen, Part 2
Home Stretch of European Parliament Elections; Egg-Pelting Continues
Is Gay Marriage Coming or Going in NY State?
Does History Dictate That New Jersey and Virginia Will Elect Republican Governors in November?
Gubernatorial Power Rankings: Crist, Freudenthal Top List
Brits and Dutch Vote Today; Skeptics Leading
Control of Virginia Redistricting Hinges on Races Far Under the Radar
Get Ready for Hockey Dad!
As Go These Four So Go the Dems?
McAuliffe : Virginia :: Dean : Iowa?
Exit Polls and Outrageous Folded Ballots in NL and UK
Liberal Blogger Matt Yglesias Wants to Tax Your Beer! I Want to Tax Drunk Drivers.
Latinos Love Sotomayor–But How Much?
New York’s Gillibrand Has Become Lockstep Liberal
March of the Greens?
The Palin Paradox: Women More Likely to be Elected in Male-Dominated Districts
Obama’s Top Targeter Bullish on Montana and Worried About Gingrich; Predicts Deeds Win Tomorrow
VA Gov a Test Case for the “Martin Effect”?
Has The Geithner Plan Succeeded?
Following Leadership Coup, Gay Marriage Probably DOA in New York State [UPDATED: Or Is It?]
Primary Eve in VA: Anticipating the Analysis
Starbucks Beats Peet’s?
N.R.A. Muscle Saves 538, Blocks D.C. Voting Rights
A Note About Those VA Turnout Numbers
Virginia Gubernatorial Primary Live Blog
Paterson Now Less Popular Than Spitzer
Size and Distribution of the VA Primary Vote
Do Americans Trust Obama on Terrorism or Just Dismiss the Terrorist Threat?
How To Get 63% of Americans to Support Gay Marriage. (Maybe.)
Deeds Leads
American Medical Association Has Long Donated to Opponents of Health Care Reform
Gay Marriage, State by State: A Tipping Point?
Polling and Voting in Iran’s Friday Election
Leader Limbaugh: Chalk One Up to Obama, DNC
Obama Approval Rating Exceeds 50% in States Containing 445 Electoral Votes
Statistical Report Purporting to Show Rigged Iranian Election Is Flawed
Gay Rights are Popular in Many Dimensions
Weekend Amusement: Is Roy Barnes Fighting History?
Iranian Election Results by Province [UPDATED]
Iran Does Have Some Fishy Numbers
Polling Predicted Intimidation — and Not Necessarily Ahmadinejad’s Victory
Recount in Iran?
On Health Care, Who’s Hooked on Special Interest Money?
Placer is the New Orange
If He Did It
Don’t Expect Ensign to Resign
Personal Democracy Forum, June 29th-30th
Ahmadinejad’s Rural Votes
Who Wants School Vouchers? Rich Whites and Poor Nonwhites
Who Wants School Vouchers? Rich Whites and Poor Nonwhites
Unconvincing (to me) Use of Benford's Law to Demonstrate Election Fraud in Iran
Unconvincing (to me) Use of Benford’s Law to Demonstrate Election Fraud in Iran
Karroubi’s Unlucky 7’s?
Congress: A Good Place for Health Care To Die
Are Republicans Undercutting Themselves On Blame For Deficits?
Iranian Leadership Split On Response
The Ayatollah’s Flawed Logic
Public Support for the Public Option
Is it “Schlocky” to Compare Life Expectancies Between Countries?
Lazy Sunday Linkage: Public Option, Iran, Nate v. Karl Rove
Worst. Damage Control. Ever.
Special Interest Money Means Longer Odds for Public Option
Special Interest Money Means Longer Odds for Public Option
Voting With Their Feet?
Grassroots Bipartisanship on Health Care
Another Iranian Oddity
NRCC Bullish About Taking Down Rookie and Sophomore Dems
Elections Without Section 5?
George F. Will Admits Public Option Will Cut Costs
Good Morning, Tehran
Sanford to Minneapolis? (Nope — Argentina?)
Why is the Washington Post Testing Republican Messages on Health Care?
Sanford’s “Hiking” Affair: Spitzer/Edwards, or Giuliani/Vitter?
Obama’s (Unintentionally?) Brilliant Strategy on Cap-and-Trade
The Environmental Indifference Point
The Republican “Next-In-Line” Myth
Sanford: More Resignation Pressure than other Pantsless Pols
Cap-and-Trade, State-by-State
Sex scandals, le style Français
Sex scandals, le style Français
Cap-and-Trade Bill Passes House
Statistical Tests and Election Fraud
How To Destroy (Almost) Half the Planet for the Low, Low Price of Just 5% of Global GDP
Palin-Romney ’12
Americans Tightening Belts
Wyden Not?
The Limited Influence of the Median Voter
Should Sanford Resign?
UPDATE: Do Americans Worried About Terrorist Attack Trust Obama?
Minnesota Supreme Court Rejects Coleman’s Claims, Rules Election Was Fair
Obama, Sotomayor and Affirmative Action
"Conservative Activist Judge" is NOT an Oxymoron
A Challenge to Climate Change Skeptics
Bunning Bowing Out
House (not Senate) May be Barrier to Health Care
On Health Care, Bipartisanship without Compromise?
Palin Mini-Scandal: Not the "Other Shoe"
Palin: All Tail, No Head
Poker Update: I'm #441
Rumors of the Demise of ObamaCare Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
Senate Rankings, July 2009 Edition
The Baucus Bill's Bad Math
The Case Against the Case Against Taxing Health Benefits
The Obama Effect Considered
This Post Brought to You by Poker
What Bayesian Statistics Can Do For You
Yes, the GOP's Still Out of Touch
Who Voted for the Climate Bill? (And Why?)
Welcome to the Club, Al
Obama Has a Health Care Plan?
Is Mike Huckabee the New Jesse Jackson?
Cup O' Jolt, Or, How Americans are Tightening Those Belts
Cup O’ Jolt, Or, How Americans are Tightening Those Belts
Destroying the Planet, Part II
Destroying the Planet, Part II
This Post Brought to You by Poker
Why (Some) Liberals Hate Sarah Palin
Explainin' Palin: All of The Above?
Explainin’ Palin: All of The Above?
Obama & Palin: Carpe Diem
How Can the Climate Bill Get to 60 Votes?
Sarah Palin (R, Asterisk)
Poker Update: I’m #441
Oh No, Ohio?
Palin the Polarizer
A Republican Hot Streak?
Is Obama Improving America’s Global Image?
Coleman for Governor?
Democrats do Better Among the Most and Least Educated
Third and Unfortunately Last Poker Update
In Illinois, Dems Dodge Bullet; GOP Shoots Selves in Foot
Obama Leading Pawlenty by 11 Points in His Own Back Yard
Obama Leading Pawlenty by 11 Points in His Own Back Yard
Taxing the Rich: The (Politically) Smart Way to Pay for Health Care
Why Democrats Have No Time to Waste
Senate Rankings, July 2009 Edition
RGA Chief Had No Warning of Palin’s Resignation
Protestants, Catholics, and Jews on the Supreme Court
Will Kay Bailey Hutchison Play Texas Hold ‘Em?
Blue Dog Districts Need Health Care More than Most
Palin: All Tail, No Head
RGA’s Ayers Responds to 538 Readers
“Conservative Activist Judge” is NOT an Oxymoron
The Obama Effect Considered
On Health Care, Bipartisanship without Compromise?
A Challenge to Climate Change Skeptics
Pelosi v. Boehner; Gillibrand v. Maloney; Obama v. Himself
Rumors of the Demise of ObamaCare Have Been Greatly Exaggerated
Teixeira Says Culture War Ending, GOP Needs “New Playbook”
The Case Against the Case Against Taxing Health Benefits
Sotomayor Polling Strongly; ME’s Collins Will Vote to Confirm
Palin Mini-Scandal: Not the “Other Shoe”
What Bayesian Statistics Can Do For You
House (not Senate) May be Barrier to Health Care
Arlen Specter Just Can’t Shake Pat Toomey
Climate Challenge Update
A Note to Blue Dog Democrats on Health Care and Pascal’s Wager
Obama Approval Ratings Straw Poll
The Healthcare Timeout is Fine.
Let’s Not Kid Ourselves About Aid Flows
Since Primary Challenge, Specter Voting with Dems 97% of the Time
Since Primary Challenge, Specter Voting with Dems 97% of the Time
Governor Palin, You’re No Hillary Clinton
DGA Chief Says Ignore NJ Polls, Avoids Calling for Paterson to Run Again
A Brief Note on the Safety of the Democratic Majority in the House
Bunning Bowing Out
The Baucus Bill’s Bad Math
A Harvard Professor Says Some Stupid Things
Obama, Democrats Flunking Health Care Sales Pitch
2010: It’s All About the National Swing
Support for Health Care Reform: Is Public Opinion More Favorable for Obama than It Was for Clinton in 1994?
The Only Winning Move is Not To Play
Yes, the GOP’s Still Out of Touch
On The Meaning of Jim Bunning
A Lion in a Senate Full of Them--Back in '63, That is
Afghanistan Election Heating Up
Afghanistan In a Holding Pattern: Abdullah Protests
Afghanistan: 2004 results and 2009 Polling
Are Progressives on Tilt?
Are The Health Care Protests Working? And Are Liberals Helping Them?
Asymmetrical Policy Warfare and the Prophets of Deceit
Bayh, Blue Dog Senators Becoming More Conservative; Lieberman more Liberal
Can a Republican Take Obama's Old Seat?
Chavismo, Obama and the Monroe Doctrine
Corzine Hearts Obama ... Does Deeds?
Could a Republican Win Ted Kennedy's Senate Seat?
Democratic Gains in Midwest Slower Than Needed to become National Majority
Do You Favor Same-Sex Marriage? Do You Know Any Gay People?
Economic Headlines You Won't See on The Drudge Report
Emerging Democratic Majority Also Emergent in State Legislatures
For Democrats, a "Moment of Clarity" on Health Care?
Grand Unified Obama Critique
Health Care Bill Has Little Margin for Error in House
Hispanic Votes Not Swaying GOP on Sotomayor
How Conservative are Michelle Malkin and Michael Moore?
How Many Votes Does the Public Option Have? How Many Does it Need?
How to Poll on the Public Option
If Republicans Were Serious About Deficits...
Is Obama Spending his Political Capital, Wasting It ... or Wuz He Robbed?
Life After the Death of the Public Option
Likely Voters and Unlikely Scenarios
Looking Forward to 2010
Majority Leader Dick Durbin?
Mel Martinez to Resign Senate Seat; Charlie Crist to Pull Own Hair Out
My Own Pet Conspiracy Theory
Not All Socialist Countries are Alike
Nothing Sucks Worse Than The Post Office -- Except for Kinko's
Obama Has Cut Taxes for 98.6 Percent of Working* Households**
Obama States and Unemployment: Confusing Cause and Effect
Obama's Peril in Afghanistan?
Occam's Razor and Health Care
Senate Rankings, August 2009 Edition: Republicans Movin' On Up
Seniors Skeptical on Health Care Spending
Sestak, Corzine Closing
Should Kennedy's Dying Wish on Temporary Appointment Be Granted?
State Legislative Partisan Gains Since the Republican Revolution
Ted Kennedy Sails On
Ted Kennedy, 1932-2009
The Difference Between Birthers and Truthers
The Enthusiasm Gap, Revisited
The Essence of the Health Care Endgame
The NRA's Pyrrhic "Victory" on Sotomayor
The Real Problem with The Senate's Small-State Bias
The Senate was the Right Place For Kennedy
W's Other Legacies
Who Are the Liberal Democrats and the Conservative Republicans?
Why Are Senior Citizens Crying "Socialism" at Town Halls?
Why Unemployment (Probably) Won't Hit 10 Percent
Yes We Did? How Blogging Can (and Can’t) Support a Field Campaign
Chavismo, Obama and the Monroe Doctrine
Chavismo, Obama and the Monroe Doctrine
Health Care Bill Has Little Margin for Error in House
Health Care Bill Has Little Margin for Error in House
The Real Problem with The Senate's Small-State Bias
The Real Problem with The Senate’s Small-State Bias
Obama States and Unemployment: Confusing Cause and Effect
The Difference Between Birthers and Truthers
The Enthusiasm Gap, Revisited
Corzine Hearts Obama … Does Deeds?
Nothing Sucks Worse Than The Post Office — Except for Kinko’s
If Republicans Were Serious About Deficits…
How Conservative are Michelle Malkin and Michael Moore?
Hispanic Votes Not Swaying GOP on Sotomayor
The NRA’s Pyrrhic “Victory” on Sotomayor
Economic Headlines You Won’t See on The Drudge Report
Mel Martinez to Resign Senate Seat; Charlie Crist to Pull Own Hair Out
Obama Has Cut Taxes for 98.6 Percent of Working* Households**
Why Unemployment (Probably) Won’t Hit 10 Percent
Can a Republican Take Obama’s Old Seat?
W’s Other Legacies
Not All Socialist Countries are Alike
Emerging Democratic Majority Also Emergent in State Legislatures
My Own Pet Conspiracy Theory
Bayh, Blue Dog Senators Becoming More Conservative; Lieberman more Liberal
Looking Forward to 2010
Are The Health Care Protests Working? And Are Liberals Helping Them?
Afghanistan Election Heating Up
Occam’s Razor and Health Care
Sestak, Corzine Closing
Yes We Did? How Blogging Can (and Can’t) Support a Field Campaign
Likely Voters and Unlikely Scenarios
Life After the Death of the Public Option
How Many Votes Does the Public Option Have? How Many Does it Need?
Obama’s Peril in Afghanistan?
Democratic Gains in Midwest Slower Than Needed to become National Majority
Grand Unified Obama Critique
Is Obama Spending his Political Capital, Wasting It … or Wuz He Robbed?
The Essence of the Health Care Endgame
Asymmetrical Policy Warfare and the Prophets of Deceit
Afghanistan: 2004 results and 2009 Polling
Who Are the Liberal Democrats and the Conservative Republicans?
For Democrats, a “Moment of Clarity” on Health Care?
Do You Favor Same-Sex Marriage? Do You Know Any Gay People?
State Legislative Partisan Gains Since the Republican Revolution
Are Progressives on Tilt?
Senate Rankings, August 2009 Edition: Republicans Movin’ On Up
Afghanistan In a Holding Pattern: Abdullah Protests
How to Poll on the Public Option
Why Are Senior Citizens Crying “Socialism” at Town Halls?
Majority Leader Dick Durbin?
Seniors Skeptical on Health Care Spending
Ted Kennedy, 1932-2009
Ted Kennedy Sails On
The Senate was the Right Place For Kennedy
A Lion in a Senate Full of Them–Back in ’63, That is
Could a Republican Win Ted Kennedy’s Senate Seat?
Should Kennedy’s Dying Wish on Temporary Appointment Be Granted?
Poll: Most Don’t Know What “Public Option” Is — Including Pollsters
Turning the Green Mountain State(house) Blue
Ford is Also Trading in Its Clunkers for Cash
Colorado Primary Challenge Looks Like Win-Win for Dems
Colorado Primary Challenge Looks Like Win-Win for Dems
50 Percent is Not a Magic Number
Do Americans Really Hate Flying? Or Really Love Driving?
Do Americans Really Hate Flying? Or Really Love Driving?
Tide of Change in Japan? A Quick Electoral History
On Public Option, “Not No” Doesn’t Equal “Yes”
Actually, the Senate Is Far Less Nepotistic Today
The Biggest Moment of His Presidency? Well, Yes*.
Is McDonnell’s Thesis His “Macaca” Moment?
Pundits Pompously Pontificate – but Election Data Says Democrats Still Alive and Kicking
Do Blue Dogs Hate the Public Option Just Because Liberals Like It?
What Today’s Unemployment Report Means
Angry White Seniors and 2010
A Trigger — With Teeth?
As Unemployment Rises, Support for Organized Labor Falls
Dep’t of Stupid Headlines: L.A. Times Edition
The John and the Porn Star
Analysis: Public Option Is Likely Popular in Most Blue Dog Districts
Liveblog: Obama’s State-of-The-Healthcare Speech
State-of-the-Healthcare Speech: Final Thoughts
The Speech as Rhetorical Device
Wilson’s Outburst Merely a Peep
Now What?
Closing the Gap on Health Care
White Approval of Obama
Size Matters; So Do Lies
When You Assume, You Make a Mess Out of Your Poll
A Bounce? Yes. A Game-Changer? We’ll See.
Ron Paul Rallies, V.2009?
Baucus Compromise Bill Draws Enthusiastic Support of Senator Max Baucus (D-MT)
Fraud Changing the Tune in Afghanistan
Fraud Changing the Tune in Afghanistan
IBD/TIPP Doctors Poll Is Not Trustworthy
Democrats 1, Red Sox 0
Americans View News Media as Biased
Is Public Opinion on Health Care Locked In?
Getting a Bigger House
Gay Marriage Is Fading as ‘Values’ Focal Point
Players in the Afghanistan Sandbox
Don’t Count Health Care Chickens Yet
Health Care Is Hazardous to Poll Numbers for Grassley, Other Senators
German Elections: Afghanistan Issue on the Rise
Glenn Beck, Post-Modern Conservative
Teddy’s Seat May Be Filled Today
Generic House Polling Suggests the Republicans Could Regain the House in 2010
Would Bigger House Favor Democrats?
A Few More Questions for a Sketchy Pollster
Strategic Vision Polls Exhibit Unusual Patterns, Possibly Indicating Fraud
Comparison Study: Unusual Patterns in Strategic Vision Polling Data Remain Unexplained
Are Oklahoma Students Really This Dumb? Or Is Strategic Vision Really This Stupid?
Are Oklahoma Students Really This Dumb? Or Is Strategic Vision Really This Stupid?
Party Politics in Germany
Untrustworthy Polls
Strategic Vision Office Is Located in Rural Blairsville, GA, Not Atlanta As Firm Claims
Iran Announcement Underscores Complexity
Monday Mish-Mash: Strategic Vision, Las Vegas, and String Theory
The New Party of Medicare-Mongering
The Attention Deficit
Will GOP Outraise Dems in ’09-’10?
Bad News for Public Option?
An Open Letter to Strategic Vision CEO David Johnson
Can NoVa Save Deeds?
Senate Rankings, September 2009 Lightning Round Edition
Analysis: Gay Marriage Ban is Underdog in Maine
Proportional Voting? Well, Kinda
Disband the IOC!
The Weekly Standard’s John McCormack is a Socialist or Something
In New Jersey, Two Glasses Half-Empty
Seen Through Sharper Statistical Lens, Anomalies in Strategic Vision Polling Remain
Question Order May Bias Fox News Health Care Polling
Obama-Corzine 2009?
Delaware Leaps to #1 in Senate Rankings; Is 60-Seat Majority Doomed?
Delaware Leaps to #1 in Senate Rankings; Is 60-Seat Majority Doomed?
Checking in on Tim and Mitt
Obama’s Domestic Afghanistan Puzzle
Generic Congressional Ballot 400 Days Out
Afghanistan’s Dangerous (and Expensive) Soap Opera
Opt Me Out of Public Option Purism
CBO Report Could Be Turning Point
Obama’s Prize for Peace
Reforming the Democratic Presidential Nomination
Would Rush Limbaugh Hurt the St. Louis Rams?
Clinton’s Busy Summer
Why The Insurance Industry is Fighting Mad
Authoritarianism in American Politics
Just Words
Honey, Does This Governor Make Me Look Fat?
Honey, Does This Governor Make Me Look Fat?
The Price of Party Unity
Can Offshore Drilling Save the Climate Bill?
Gun Show Loopholes Gone Wild
The Hiring Activity Index Says: Things are Getting Better for Small Businesses
Lieberman Flirting with Political Suicide
In Defense of Rush Limbaugh
Quietly, Japan Is Changing Course
On the Meaning of Snowe Leopards
Christie Shouldn’t Count on “Daggett Effect” To Save Him
Geoengineering is No Free Lunch — A Comment on SuperFreakonomics
Afghanistan Audit Doesn’t Look Good For Karzai
The Not-So-Bad-Case Scenario
Turnout is the Maine Issue
Why The (Impure) Public Option is (Probably) Gaining Momentum
Palin Will Not Run for President in ’12
Older and Wealthier People are More Likely to Oppose Government Health Care
The Issue That Could Fracture Both Right and Left
Scozzafava is a Conservative Republican (by New York State standards)
Arguments Against Gay Marriage Literally Stop Making Sense
The Other Public Option
The Public Option Playing Field, in Two Dimensions
Comparing the Votes of the Rich and the Poor
Picking on Cliff Clavin
60 v. 61?
Despite Claims, Anti-Gay Group in Maine More Dependent on Out-of-State Funds
2009 Elections Preview: NYC Mayor
Reality Check: NY-23 Poll May Seek to Alter, Not Reflect, Reality
On Being Wrong About the Public Option
Somebody Buy Joe Lieberman a Puppy
Zogby Again Polls on Misleading Question, This Time with Racial Tinge
2009 Elections Preview: Virginia Governor
Toward a General Theory of Democratic Disgruntlement, Part I
Man vs. Machine in New Jersey
For European Integration, Movement and Money Counts
Toward a General Theory of Democratic Disgruntlement, Part 2
2009 Elections Preview: NY-23 — A Toss-Up, Indeed, Between Owens, Hoffman
Sarah Palin: From Winks to Winces
Scozzafava's Supporters Like Obama, Dislike Hoffman and Owens
Scozzafava’s Supporters Like Obama, Dislike Hoffman and Owens
Senate Rankings: October 2009 Quick-and-Dirty Edition
Senate Rankings: October 2009 Quick-and-Dirty Edition
Three Big Questions in NY-23
Local vs. National Conservative Grassroots
2009 Elections Preview: Maine Question 1 (Gay Marriage)
15 Clarifying Questions For Close Elections
RSLC Predicting GOP Gains Tomorrow
2009 Elections Preview: New Jersey Governor
NY-23 Re-Re-Re-Reconsidered
The Republicans’ Branding Problem
Gubernatorial Races a Poor Yardstick
DLCC: Worried About Low Turnout Today
2009 Elections Preview: CA-10
Isn't 2009 More About the GOP?
Isn’t 2009 More About the GOP?
2009 Elections Preview: Washington Referendum 71 (Domestic Partnership)
Election Night Overview
Deeds v. Obama in Virginia
Still Too Close to Call in New Jersey (Update: Apparently Not?)
NY-23 Results by County; Democrat Owens Appears Poised for Victory
What Happened and Why?
All Politics is Local, Ctd.
New Jersey ≠ Virginia
DGA Chief Says Dems “Carry Burden of Proof”
Congressional Foreign Politics
Independent Voters and Empty Explanations
The Big 2010 Question
Skipping Elections, Strategic Vision Has Not Polled Since Controversy Arose
Unemployment Hits 10.2 Percent
House Likely to Pass Health Care Bill Tonight
Real Oklahoma Students Ace Citizenship Exam; Strategic Vision Survey Was Likely Fabricated
Republicans Far Behind on Women Legislators
Many Previously Pro-Choice Dems Voted for Stupak Amendment
Is the Prognosis For Health Care Getting Better or Worse? The Market Weighs In.
House Handicapping One Year Out
For the Soccer Fans Among You
Time for Dems to Panic?
How the Swine Flu Has Spread
Politicians Have a Lot of Leeway in How They Vote
Why Compact, Contiguous Districts are Bad for the Democrats
Monday Miscellany
Why Palin Will Run for President in 2012
Handicapping Governors Races One Year Out
10 Reasons That Sarah Palin Could Win the Republican Nomination
The Palin Calculus: A Rejoinder
Senators and Health Care
American Politics and International Soccer: Who’s the Ref?
Senate Handicapping One Year Out
Dems Lucky There Aren’t More Lincolns
It’s [Still] The Economy, Dumbass
I Read Through 160,000,000 Bytes of Hacked Files And All I Got Was This Lousy E-Mail
I Read Through 160,000,000 Bytes of Hacked Files And All I Got Was This Lousy E-Mail
Lincoln To Vote for Motion to Proceed, But Threatens Filibuster on Public Option
Is The Public Option Un-Un-Dead?
Is Gallup “upping the sample to black Americans”?
Advice To Blanche Lincoln: Speak Softly, But Carry Firm Position on Health Care Reform
Bringing in a Strong Team: Obama vs the EU
Democrats Damned If They Do; Damnder If They Don’t
Best Idea of the Day: Climate Change Futures Markets
America’s Health is America’s Business
How Bad Could Obama Screw Up and Still Beat Sarah Palin?
Constitutional Chicanery
Government Waste Through Improper Payment
The Case for Climate Futures Markets, Ctd.
Gobble
Some New Rules for Frequent — and Infrequent — Fliers
Charlie Crist is Not a Good Sharer
State Losing Jobs That Obama Could Lose
That Couple
Food Stamp Stats and Confidence Building
Intolerance, European Style
Foreigners in Switzerland
This is Great News!!! For Progressives!!!
A Cop-Killer’s Impact on 2012
Responsibility, Means and Interests
The Speech Isn’t the Story
Poll Finds Widespread Apathy Among Black Voters
The Very Open GOP Field
World Cup Draw Preview
Maine Revisited: Is There a Backlash Against Same-Sex Marriage?
Gaming Out GOP 2012 Scenarios
World Cup 2010 Advancement Probabilities
Improving Unemployment Numbers Make Political Case for Jobs Bill Stronger, Not Weaker
Some Key Nuggets of the Afghanistan Strategy Speech
538 –> Copenhagen
In Polls, Much Opposition to Health Care Plan Is From Left
Copenhagen Dispatch
The New Identity Politics Party
No Surprises in the Bay State
ERASMUS in America (Cultural Integration)
Despite Protests, Some Reason for Optimism in Copenhagen
My Last Words on the Public Option
Craziness With a Touch of Nutmeg
Obama in Oslo
Countries Most Vulnerable to Climate Change Are Least Aware of Threat
If An Economy Recovers and No One Cheers It, Does It Make a Sound?
Parker Wins Houston Mayoralty
Greg Mankiw, Stimulus Critic: So Wrong He’s Actually Right
Joe Lieberman: Smarter Than Br’er Fox
How To Nuke the Filibuster
The Public Option Fight May Not Have Been Winnable
Why Progressives Are Batshit Crazy to Oppose the Senate Bill
Berlusconi the Survivor
20 Questions for Bill Killers
Health Care: The Elevator Pitch
20 Questions, 20 Responses
A Typology for Congressional Retirements
An Uncharitable Take on a Liberal Poll
Nelson Pledges Support For Health Care Bill, Making Passage Likely
An Extremely Premature Retrospective on the Kill Bill Strategy
Can’t Tell the Conservatives and Liberals Apart Without a Program
What Republicans Can Learn from French Communists
Bruce Tix or 2.4 Birds in the Bush?
The Insidious Myth of Reconciliation
Could Obama Have Sold the Public Option?
Insurance Stocks Rise on News of Health Care Deal; What’s It Mean?
Another Left-Right Convergence
A Bit More Context on Health Insurer Stocks
2009’s Most Valuable Democrat Is…
Senate Passes Historic Health Care Reform Bill on Party Line Vote
Health Insurance Stocks Decline on News of Senate Passage of Reform Bill; Have Underperformed Market Since Start of Week
Postscript
Happy Holidays from 538!
For Pelosi, Many Paths to 218
The Obama Strategy in Black and White
The Odds of Airborne Terror
On the Meaning of the New Left
The Senate’s Bill Helps Working Families
The Internet is Underrated: A Note on Activism, Populism and Polarization at the End of the ‘Aughts
Election 2012: Ben Nelson (D-NE) Trails Jesus in Reelection Bid
Health Insurance and the Family Budget: Highly Affordable for Some, More Affordable for All
Opposition Strategy 101
Senate Rankings, December 2009 Edition
Happy New Year and Decade