fivethirtyeightindex

Explore 38,954 articles, datasets, podcasts, graphics and illustrations from fivethirtyeight.com

July 2019 graphics

55 matches

Scatter plot comparing presidential candidates' national polling average vs. Iowa caucuses vote share since 1972, highlighting candidates from Iowa or Iowa-adjacent states.

Charts 2019-07-01

Candidates from nearby are pretty average in Iowa

From Iowans Won’t Vote For You Just Because You’re Their Neighbor by Nathaniel Rakich

Grouped bar chart comparing white Republicans and white Democrats on three questions about racial progress, slavery's legacy, and racial discrimination, from a 2019 Pew Research survey.

Charts 2019-07-02

White Republicans, white Democrats differ widely in their views of the country's racial progress

From How Will Democrats Talk About Race In 2020?

Heatmap matrix showing percentage agreement between pairs of Supreme Court justices during the October 2018 term, with darker orange indicating higher agreement.

Charts 2019-07-02

Kavanaugh and Gorsuch don't always agree

From The Supreme Court Might Have Three Swing Justices Now by Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

Dot plot showing Martin-Quinn ideology scores for Supreme Court justices in October 2018 term, with Kavanaugh positioned near John Roberts on the conservative side.

Charts 2019-07-02

Kavanaugh is Roberts 2.0

From The Supreme Court Might Have Three Swing Justices Now by Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

Dot plot showing the ideology of the median Supreme Court justice by Martin-Quinn scores from 1947 to present, highlighting Kavanaugh as the new median justice.

Charts 2019-07-02

Kavanaugh is now the center of the Court

From The Supreme Court Might Have Three Swing Justices Now by Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

Slope chart showing net favorability changes for 2020 Democratic candidates before and after the June 2019 debate, with teal lines for improvements and pink for declines.

Charts 2019-07-03

How the candidates' net favorability changed post-debate

From Where Kamala Harris’s New Voters Came From by Nathaniel Rakich, Laura Bronner

Color-coded table showing average debate ratings out of 5 for Democratic candidates after the first 2019 debate, broken down by pre-debate voter preference.

Tables 2019-07-03

Everyone's supporters thought Harris and Warren did well

From How The Top Candidates’ Supporters Rated The Debaters, In One Chart by Laura Bronner

S-curve chart showing chance of winning presidential nomination vs average poll support for well-known and not-well-known candidates, with Biden marked at 30%.

Charts 2019-07-09

Biden's early polls suggest a decent shot of winning

From Is Joe Biden Still The Front-Runner?

Grouped bar chart comparing pre- and post-debate Democratic electability perceptions for Biden, Warren, Harris, Sanders, and O'Rourke against Trump, from a YouGov poll.

Charts 2019-07-09

Democrats consider Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris more electable after the first Democratic debates

From Is Joe Biden Still The Front-Runner?

Side-by-side horizontal bar charts comparing pre- and post-debate voter consideration percentages for 2020 Democratic primary candidates, showing Warren and Harris rising above Biden after the first debate.

Charts 2019-07-09

Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris rise above Joe Biden in voter consideration after first Democratic primary debates

From Is Joe Biden Still The Front-Runner?

Bubble chart showing the 2020 Democratic endorsement pool with circles representing every potential endorser grouped by role, from DNC members to past presidents.

Other 2019-07-09

The 2020 Endorsement Pool

From Is Joe Biden Still The Front-Runner?

Horizontal bar chart ranking 2020 Democratic presidential candidates by endorsement points, with candidate photos, led by Joe Biden at 102 points.

Charts 2019-07-09

The 2020 Endorsement Primary

From Is Joe Biden Still The Front-Runner?

Bar chart showing ticker-tape parades in New York City by type from 1886 to 2019, categorized as Expedition, Head of State, Military, Sport, or Other.

Charts 2019-07-10

We only parade for sports now

From The NYC Ticker-Tape Parade Belongs To The U.S. Women’s Soccer Team Now by Neil Paine

Color-coded matrix table showing voters' second-choice picks among Biden, Sanders, Harris, and Warren supporters in a Reuters/Ipsos poll from June 28-July 2.

Tables 2019-07-10

A look at voters' second-choice picks

From Lanes Are Starting To Emerge In The 2020 Democratic Primary by Nathaniel Rakich

Heatmap matrix showing share of Democratic primary voters who chose each candidate as their second choice, broken down by their first-choice candidate, from a Morning Consult poll July 1-7, 2019.

Charts 2019-07-10

Lanes are emerging among voters' second-choice picks

From Lanes Are Starting To Emerge In The 2020 Democratic Primary by Nathaniel Rakich

Horizontal bar chart showing the number of campaign emails FiveThirtyEight received from 2020 Democratic candidates and how many mentioned Trump, sorted by Trump-mention rate.

Charts 2019-07-11

Which candidates are talking about Trump?

From What Our Inbox Tells Us About How Democrats Are Tackling Trump by Dhrumil Mehta

Line chart showing generic congressional ballot polling from April 2019 to Election Day Nov. 3, 2020, with Democrats at 46.3% and Republicans at 39.9% as of July 11, 2019.

Charts 2019-07-12

Generic Congressional Ballot: Democrats 46.3% vs Republicans 39.9%

From Second Place In The Democratic Primary Is Crowded — That’s Not Good For Sanders by Nathaniel Rakich

Line chart showing presidential approval and disapproval ratings over time from January 2023 to Day 903, with disapproval at 52.4% and approval at 42.5%.

Charts 2019-07-12

Presidential Approval Ratings Over Time (Day 903)

From Second Place In The Democratic Primary Is Crowded — That’s Not Good For Sanders by Nathaniel Rakich

Diagonal matrix-style chart with blue horizontal bars arranged along the diagonal, with media outlet names labeled along both the top and bottom axes.

Charts 2019-07-12

Media Outlet Comparison Matrix Chart

From What’s The Optimal Way To Play HORSE? by Oliver Roeder

Side-by-side player cards comparing CARMELO wins above replacement projections for Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook from 2017 to 2026 with confidence intervals.

Other 2019-07-12

CARMELO Wins Above Replacement: Chris Paul vs. Russell Westbrook

From NBA Free Agency Diary: The Rockets Don’t Have Superstar FOMO Anymore by Neil Paine

Dot-and-range chart showing Serena Williams's first and second serve win percentages at Wimbledon from 1998 to 2019, with Wimbledon-winning years highlighted in green.

Charts 2019-07-12

Serena Williams has made a living off her first serve

From Serena Williams Will Need To Serve Better To Tie Margaret Court by Tom Perrotta

Stacked bar chart showing the number of women who ran for and won seats in the U.S. House and Senate from 1974 to 2018, with 2018 reaching a record high of about 256.

Charts 2019-07-15

2018 was a record year for female members of Congress

From Americans Say They Would Vote For A Woman, But … by Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

Five red stars in a row, likely used as a rating or ranking graphic.

Other 2019-07-15

Five Red Stars Rating Graphic

From Americans Say They Would Vote For A Woman, But … by Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

Stacked horizontal bar chart showing share of respondents who say women or men in high political offices are better at various aspects of political leadership, with women leading on compassion and honesty.

Charts 2019-07-15

Women in politics are seen as more honest than men

From Americans Say They Would Vote For A Woman, But … by Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

Horizontal bar chart showing 906 foul balls by stadium zone and exit velocity (under 90 mph, 90+ mph, unknown) from the top 10 MLB foul-heavy stadiums as of June 5.

Charts 2019-07-15

The hardest-hit fouls seem to land in unprotected areas

From We Watched 906 Foul Balls To Find Out Where The Most Dangerous Ones Land by Annette Choi

Horizontal stacked bar chart showing foul balls by MLB stadium zone and exit velocity, with zones 4 and 5 having the most high-velocity fouls landing in unprotected areas.

Charts 2019-07-15

The hardest-hit fouls seem to land in unprotected areas

From We Watched 906 Foul Balls To Find Out Where The Most Dangerous Ones Land by Annette Choi

Infographic showing where foul balls land in MLB stadiums by zone share, with notable injury locations marked on stadium diagrams for 2016-2019.

Tables 2019-07-15

Where do most foul balls land?

From We Watched 906 Foul Balls To Find Out Where The Most Dangerous Ones Land by Annette Choi

NBA Eastern Conference team rankings table showing CARMELO ratings, projected records, point differentials, and playoff probabilities for regular season and playoffs.

Tables 2019-07-16

NBA CARMELO Ratings — Eastern Conference Regular Season & Playoffs

From Our Way-Too-Early Projections For The 2019-20 NBA Season by Neil Paine

NBA Eastern Conference team rankings by CARMELO score showing projected records and playoff, finals, and championship probabilities.

Tables 2019-07-16

NBA Eastern Conference CARMELO Ratings and Playoff Odds

From Our Way-Too-Early Projections For The 2019-20 NBA Season by Neil Paine

NBA Western Conference team projections table showing CARMELO ratings, projected records, point differentials, and playoff probabilities for regular season and playoffs.

Tables 2019-07-16

NBA West CARMELO Ratings: Regular Season and Playoff Projections

From Our Way-Too-Early Projections For The 2019-20 NBA Season by Neil Paine

NBA Western Conference teams ranked by Current Carmelo rating with projected record and playoff probability percentages including make playoffs, make finals, and win finals.

Tables 2019-07-16

NBA West Teams: Carmelo Ratings and Playoff Probabilities

From Our Way-Too-Early Projections For The 2019-20 NBA Season by Neil Paine

Stacked bar chart showing how registered voters describe Hillary Clinton's and Donald Trump's views on a liberal-to-conservative scale, based on a June-July 2016 Pew survey.

Charts 2019-07-17

Most see Clinton as liberal on issues, many see Trump as mix of conservative and liberal

From Will ‘The Squad’ vs. Pelosi Be A Big Problem For Democrats In 2020?

Two line charts showing number of NBA franchises played for by player rank per decade, comparing the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s.

Charts 2019-07-17

Welcome to the NBA's era of player empowerment

From NBA Free Agency Diary: Today’s NBA Superstars Won’t Stop Team-Hopping by Neil Paine

Line chart showing Jon Rahm's weekly world golf rankings rising from around 1,600th place in late 2014 to near 1st place by mid-2019.

Charts 2019-07-17

It's been a rapid rise to success for Rahm

From Jon Rahm Is Winning At A Historic Rate. He Just Hasn’t Won A Major Yet. by Josh Planos

Horizontal bar chart showing the percentage of respondents who think each 2019 Democratic candidate is best able to handle health care, with Bernie Sanders leading at 34%.

Charts 2019-07-18

Candidate Best Able to Handle Health Care

From Bulletpoint: Bernie Sanders Is Running Ahead Of The Pack On Health Care by Nate Silver

Line chart showing that winning NFL teams pass more than losing teams on early downs, plotting share of passes against team win probability for 2000-18 regular seasons.

Charts 2019-07-18

On early downs, winners tend to pass more than losers

From Ezekiel Elliott Is Not Worth The Money He Wants by Josh Hermsmeyer

Line chart showing Democratic vs Republican generic ballot polling averages from April 2019 to Election Day Nov. 3, 2020, with Democrats at 46.2% and Republicans at 39.8% as of July 18, 2019.

Charts 2019-07-19

Generic Ballot Polling: Democrats 46.2% vs Republicans 39.8%

From Why Don’t Americans Want D.C. To Be A State? by Erin Doherty

Line chart showing Trump approval and disapproval ratings from January 2017 through Day 910, with disapproval at 52.6% and approval at 42.5%.

Charts 2019-07-19

Trump Approval Rating Over Time: 52.6% Disapprove, 42.5% Approve

From Why Don’t Americans Want D.C. To Be A State? by Erin Doherty

Slope chart comparing MLB-wide WAR rankings by category for the 2018 and 2019 Washington Nationals, showing overall rank stayed near 10th.

Charts 2019-07-19

The Nationals have been just fine without Bryce, thanks

From Why Is Bryce Harper’s Old Team Ahead Of Bryce Harper’s New Team? by Neil Paine

Line chart showing the probability that Alice wins optimal HORSE as a function of the highest percentage shot (1-epsilon), rising from about 0.50 to 0.55.

Charts 2019-07-19

Chances of winning optimal HORSE

From Can You Construct The Optimal Tournament? by Oliver Roeder

Diagram of a soccer goal divided into six zones showing percentage chance to score from each zone, ranging from 70% to 100%.

Other 2019-07-19

Soccer Goal Zone Scoring Percentages

From Can You Construct The Optimal Tournament? by Oliver Roeder

S-curve chart showing how average early poll support relates to chance of winning the presidential nomination for well-known vs. not well-known candidates, 1972-2016.

Charts 2019-07-22

Bad early polls spell trouble for well-known candidates

From How To Read 2020 Polls Like A FiveThirtyEighter by Nathaniel Rakich

Scatter plot showing share of Democrats and Republicans who approve of Robert Mueller's job performance from July 2017 to July 2019, with annotations for key report release dates.

Charts 2019-07-23

Are Republicans growing skeptical of Mueller again?

From Will Hearing From Mueller Really Change Americans’ Minds About His Report? by Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

Dot plot showing share of Democrats, Republicans, and overall who support impeachment proceedings from May to July 2019, with Democrats clustered near 75% and Republicans near 10-15%.

Charts 2019-07-23

Only Democrats support impeachment

From Will Hearing From Mueller Really Change Americans’ Minds About His Report? by Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

Scatter plot showing four-seam fastball swing-and-miss rates vs. fastball share of total pitches for MLB pitchers in 2019, with Josh Hader highlighted as an outlier in the top right.

Charts 2019-07-23

Hader throws a ton of fastballs, and batters can't hit them

From Josh Hader’s Fastball Is Baseball’s Most Mysterious Pitch by Travis Sawchik

Scatter plot showing average vertical release point vs. average vertical movement on four-seam fastballs for left-handed MLB pitchers in 2019, with Josh Hader highlighted.

Charts 2019-07-23

Hader's pitches start low and make their way up fast

From Josh Hader’s Fastball Is Baseball’s Most Mysterious Pitch by Travis Sawchik

Line chart showing anti-black and anti-Hispanic prejudice scores among white American respondents by party affiliation from 2009 to 2019, with a marker for Trump's 2016 election.

Charts 2019-07-23

On average, white Americans say they're less prejudiced

From White Americans Say They’re Less Prejudiced by Dan Hopkins

Scatter plot showing Doyle Numbers vs. farm system valuations for 2019 MLB teams, with labeled teams including Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, Braves, Twins, Indians, Cubs, and Red Sox.

Charts 2019-07-24

Which buyers have the prospects to make a deal?

From The Teams That Should Be Buying And Selling At This Year’s Baseball Trade Deadline by Neil Paine

Line chart showing Democratic support at 46.2% and Republican support at 39.8% from April 2019 through Election Day Nov. 3, 2020, with a July 25, 2019 marker.

Charts 2019-07-26

Democrats vs. Republicans polling averages through Election Day 2020

From What Americans Know About Religion — And What They Don’t by Perry Bacon Jr

Line chart showing Trump's approval and disapproval ratings from January 2017 through Day 917, with disapproval at 53.2% and approval at 42.7%.

Charts 2019-07-26

Trump Approval Rating: 53.2% Disapprove, 42.7% Approve (Day 917)

From What Americans Know About Religion — And What They Don’t by Perry Bacon Jr

Line chart showing the decline of two-big lineup usage in the NBA from the 2010-11 to 2018-19 seasons, highlighting Miami, Golden State, and the NBA average.

Charts 2019-07-26

Lineups with two big men had almost disappeared

From Is The NBA’s Small-Ball Revolution About To End? by Jared Dubin

Three scatter plots comparing MLB teams' top players' WAR rank vs. overall team WAR rank for top 2, top 5, and top 10 players, with labeled outlier teams.

Charts 2019-07-26

Which teams are most dependent on their stars?

From Can We Play NBA Jam … With MLB Teams? by Neil Paine

Three scatter plots comparing MLB teams' top players' WAR rank vs. overall team WAR rank for top 2, top 5, and top 10 players, with notable teams labeled.

Charts 2019-07-26

Who depends on their stars? MLB team's top players' WAR rank vs. overall team WAR rank

From Can We Play NBA Jam … With MLB Teams? by Neil Paine

Line chart showing how the 15 percent viability threshold affects delegate allocation in 2020 Democratic primaries, comparing projected vs proportional delegate share by vote share.

Charts 2019-07-29

How the 15 percent threshold affects delegate allocation

From 15 Percent Is Not A Magic Number For Primary Delegates by Nate Silver

Line chart showing number of undocumented immigrants removed or returned to home countries from fiscal years 2000 to 2016, with Obama presidency highlighted.

Charts 2019-07-31

Immigrant removals peaked under Obama

From Will The 2020 Democrats Reject Obama’s Immigration Legacy? by Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux