fivethirtyeightindex

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March 2023

Derrick White Doesn’t Produce Like NBA Superstars. So Why Do The Advanced Stats Think He Is One?
What Are The Most Vulnerable Senate Seats In 2024?
Democrats Are Open To Ditching Biden In 2024
How Mario Lemieux Beat Cancer — And Started A Comeback For The Ages
Why The Federal Reserve's Power Is 'Limitless'
Politics Podcast: Why The Federal Reserve’s Power Is ‘Limitless’
How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government
Americans Like Biden’s Student Debt Forgiveness Plan. The Supreme Court … Not So Much.
The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive
Why Valentina Shevchenko Is A Huge Favorite — And Jon Jones Isn’t — At UFC 285
How Many Brackets Can You Bust?
Do Americans Like Donald Trump, Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis?
The Winners And Losers From MLB’s New Rules
The Poll That Ended Dilbert
Politics Podcast: The Poll That Ended Dilbert
Could Biden Be Vulnerable In A Primary?
The Poll That Ended Dilbert
Why Lori Lightfoot Lost The Chicago Mayor’s Race
Does It Matter Where COVID-19 Came From?
Don’t Be Shocked If Justin Verlander Keeps Defying Baseball’s Aging Curve
How Asian Americans Came To Play A Central Role In The Battle Over Affirmative Action
The House Is About To Have 435 Members. That’s Pretty Rare.
Does CPAC Even Matter Anymore?
Who’s The Team To Beat At The World Baseball Classic?
The Knicks’ Winning Streak Is Over. The Reasons It Happened Are Here To Stay.
The College Basketball Storylines You Should Know Before March Madness
The Fed’s Inflation Goal Is Completely Arbitrary
Why Is 2 Percent The Federal Reserve’s Magic Number For Inflation?
Some GOP Legislators Are Trying To Show They’re Pro-Life, Not Just Anti-Abortion
Few Americans Think AI Will Do More Good Than Harm
Politics Podcast: Few Americans Think AI Will Do More Good Than Harm
What Would Happen If Trump Was A Third-Party Candidate In 2024?
Americans Want Tighter Railroad Regulations After The Ohio Train Derailment
How Our Pollster Ratings Work
The Polls Were Historically Accurate In 2022
The Polls Got It Right In 2022. Here Are The Pollsters To Trust.
How Fast Can You Make The Track?
How To Fill Out Your Men’s NCAA Tournament Bracket Like A Pro
Red States Are Fighting Their Blue Cities
There’s A Racial Bias on Police Facebook Pages
Keep An Eye On These Teams When Filling Out Your Women’s NCAA Tournament Bracket
Polls Haven't Been This Accurate Since At Least 1998
Politics Podcast: This Is The Best Pollster In America
Polls Haven’t Been This Accurate Since At Least 1998
Where The Debate Over Abortion Stands
Republicans Lawmakers Are Trying To Ban Drag. First They Have To Define It.
What Does the Silicon Valley Bank Collapse Mean For The Economy?
Republican Politicians Are Struggling To Define Drag
The Factors That Could Make March Madness Mad: Upset Seeds, Deep 3s And Post D
Defense Might Win Championships. But These No. 1 Seeds Need More Offense.
Ron DeSantis Is Doubling Down On His Education Crusade. Will It Work With GOP Voters In 2024?
ACC Men’s Basketball Hit A New Low This Year. Can The NCAA Tournament Save It?
Democratic Dads Think It’s Gotten Easier To Raise Kids. Democratic Moms Disagree.
How Did State Supreme Court Races Get So Expensive?
The Hidden Stories In The U.S. Census
The Hidden Stories In The U.S. Census
The Stats Told Us To Pick Utah State. Were They Wrong?
It’s Not Just Silicon Valley Bank — Americans Haven’t Trusted Banks For Years
Can You Stack The Deck With Suits?
20 Years After The Invasion Of Iraq, Americans Still Want The U.S. Involved In World Affairs
The Big Winners From A Mad First Week Of The Men’s NCAA Tournament
The 2000s Called, They Want Their Politics Back
Politics Podcast: The 2000s Called, They Want Their Politics Back
20 Years After The Iraq Invasion, Are Americans More Skeptical Of Getting Involved Abroad?
Bank Bailout Politics 2.0
States Are Cracking Down On Militias — Except For Idaho
Which Nation Has The Most Baseball Fans?
What Happens If Trump Is Indicted?
Who Won Big In The First Weekend Of The Women’s NCAA Tournament?
Yes, A 16 Seed Beat A 1. But March Madness Hasn’t Been That Mad.
‘Tis The Season … For Gonorrhea?
The Best Way To Derail An NBA Offense? Make It Waste Time.
What We Know About Trump’s Legal Troubles
Could These MLB Dinosaurs Recreate Albert Pujols’s 2022 Renaissance?
Recess Is Good For Kids. Why Don’t More States Require It?
Who Are The Brightest Stars Left In March Madness?
Why Is Biden Moving To The Political Center?
Will Voters Care If Trump Gets Indicted?
Politics Podcast: The Manhattan DA Might Be The Least Of Trump’s Legal Worries
Will Voters Care If Trump Gets Indicted?
The Tennessee Women Haven’t Been Tested Yet This March. That Might Not Be A Bad Thing.
Which Taylor Swift Album Is The Most Popular?
The Riddler Meets Jeopardy!
Unions Have Been Under Attack For Decades, But Michigan Just Gave Them A Big Win
Would Democrats Rather Face Donald Trump Or Ron DeSantis in 2024?
How The Heck Did We Get This Final Four?
The UConn Men Aren’t Here For Your Cinderella Final Four
Good Or Bad Use Of Polling (Taylor's Version)
Politics Podcast: Good Or Bad Use Of Polling (Taylor’s Version)
What Taylor Swift Can Teach Us About Polling
Who Do Democrats Want To Win The 2024 Republican Primary?
Should Anti-Trump Republicans Clear The Field For DeSantis?
This Women’s NCAA Tournament Has Given Us A Perfect Mix Of Chalk And Madness
The Dodgers Lead Our 2023 MLB Forecast — But They’re The Weakest Favorite In Years
Politicians Want Universal School Vouchers. But What About The Public?
The Fed’s Fight Against Inflation Could Cost Black Workers The Most
Why Can’t Lamar Jackson Find The Contract He Wants?
New Laws Are Driving Red And Blue States Further Apart
Politics Podcast: What The Laboratories Of Democracy Are Cooking Up
New Laws Are Driving Red And Blue States Further Apart
Congress Is Trying To Ban TikTok. Younger Americans Don’t Like That.
What To Watch For In The Men’s Final Four
What To Watch For In The Women’s Final Four
How Many Squares Can You Squeeze?
How Trump’s Indictment Could Affect The 2024 Election
Emergency Podcast: Trump Is Indicted
Emergency Politics Podcast: Trump Is Indicted
Will Trump’s Indictment Matter In 2024?