2011 (298 entries)

The 2010 Seattle Seahawks: Worst. Playoff. Team. Ever?
All Politics Is Local? The Debate and the Graphs
Post-Midterm Approval Ratings Don’t Predict Re-Election Chances
Is The Hall of Fame Too Small?
How Not To Take Responsibility For a Failed Forecast
If Giuliani Is Back, It Won’t Be By Popular Demand
The South Sudanese Referendum Won’t Depend on the Diaspora
To Understand Assassination Threat, Look Beyond Tucson
Did Democrats Give Up in the Gun Control Debate?
A Few Reflections on Obama’s Speech in Tucson
For Democrats, a Texas-Sized Challenge
Why Carmelo Anthony Is the Ultimate Team Player (and What ‘Advanced’ Stats Miss About Him)
The Chicken, The Egg, The Media and Sarah Palin
Gaming Senate Fights in Connecticut and North Dakota
Grading New York Restaurants: What’s in an ��A’?
Bullish Blue Dogs Oppose Health Care Repeal
Will It Be 1995 All Over Again?
Critics Love ‘The Social Network.’ Will The Academy Defriend It?
State of the Union: Watch the Strategy, Not the Polls
Obama’s Paradox of Choice
Approval Ratings and Re-Election Odds
Poll: Egyptian Public’s Views Toward United States Are Much Improved
Egypt, Oil and Democracy
More on Egypt and the U.S.
How Much Does Bing Borrow From Google?
A Graphical Overview of the 2012 Republican Field
Awards That Best Predict Oscar Voting Favor ‘The King’s Speech’
A Close Super Bowl? Don’t Bet on It.
For Obama, Political Risks in Projecting Powerlessness
Are Democrats Better Off Than They Were 25 Years Ago?
How Will Webb’s Retirement Affect Virginia Democrats?
Under Tucson’s Shadow, Democrats To Search for Senate Candidate
The Economics of Blogging and The Huffington Post
Should Republicans Fret Over Their Presidential Field?
What Early Presidential Polls Tell Us
Budgetary Zugzwang
How Will Republicans Take Advantage of Bingaman’s Retirement?
Rasmussen Poll on Wisconsin Dispute May Be Biased
Deal for Anthony May Limit Knicks’ Upside
Decoding the Wisconsin Polls
Is Mississippi the New New Hampshire?
4 Rules to Win Your Oscar Pool
And the Award for Best Dictator Goes To…
Reads and Reactions
The Effects of Union Membership on Democratic Voting
In Politics, Demographics Are Not Destiny
Risks to Obama in Oil Price Instability
Hawaii Senate Seat A Likely Hold for Democrats
Few Winning Scenarios for Gingrich
Wisconsin Is a Swing State in More Ways Than One
Ensign’s Retirement May Actually Help the G.O.P.
There’s Nothing Special About Ohio
Wisconsin Dispute Could Mobilize Democratic Base
In N.C.A.A. Tournament, Overachievers Often Disappoint
Reads and Reactions II
In Tournament, There’s No Place Like (Close to) Home
How We Made Our N.C.A.A. Picks
Talent Is Nice, but Luck Is Vital
When 15th Is Better Than 8th: The Math Shows the Bracket Is Backward
Measuring the Impact of N.C.A.A. Injuries
Acts of Mild Subversion: How to Beat the Salad Bar
Palin’s Popularity Declines Among Republicans
Big East’s Performance Is Upsetting, But It’s No Failure
Poll Finds Tentative Support, Potential Risks for Obama on Libya
Models Can Be Superficial in Politics, Too
A Note to Our Readers on the Times Pay Model and the Economics of Reporting
Reads & Reactions
The Talented Mr. Romney
In Tournament of Upsets, V.C.U. Has Overcome Longest Odds
In Coverage of 2012 Candidates, the Blogs and the Beltway Divide
Poll Shows More Americans Have Unfavorable Views of Tea Party
A Brief History of Primary Polling, Part I
Butler’s Back-to-Back Championship Appearances a 7,500-to-1 Longshot
A Brief History of Primary Polling, Part II
The Phillies’ Four Aces
Which Airports Have the Most Unfair Fares?
Budget Politics in the Doldrums
Vote-Counting Error In Wisconsin Points to Incompetence, Not Conspiracy
Government Shutdowns and Approval Ratings
Reads & Reactions
An Imbalanced Budget Deal?
Risks to Boehner in Debt-Ceiling Brinkmanship
Trump’s Rise Highlights a Flawed Field
Rumors of the Democrats’ Demise in the Senate are Slightly Exaggerated
The High Stakes of Republicans’ Budget Vote
Gay Marriage Opponents Now in Minority
After ‘Black Friday,’ American Poker Faces Cloudy Future
Media’s Spotlight Shines Less Brightly on Palin
The Electoral Implications of Ensign’s Resignation
Reads & Reactions
On the Largely Irrelevant News About Barbour Not Running for President
Poll Finds Most Americans Uncertain of Trump’s Birthplace
Beware ‘Mission Accomplished’ on Budget Debate
A Quick Note on Gas Prices and Presidential Approval
How Liberal Is President Obama?
Yes, Bin Laden’s Death Will Help Obama, but for How Long?
For Canada’s New Democrats, a Cautionary Tale in Britain
Second Thoughts About Obama and Bin Laden: It’s Not Just the Economy, Stupid
Analyzing a Sea Change in Canada
Overnight Polls Find Muted Improvement in Obama’s Approval Rating
Who Will Run for President? Early Voting States May Hold a Clue
How to Beat High Airfares
A Brief History of Primary Polling, Part III
Reads & Reactions
Derek Jeter and the Curse of Age
Beyond Obama’s Bin Laden Bounce
A Polling-Based Forecast of the Republican Primary Field
A Special Election May Be a Special Case
Huntsman’s Positions on Gay Rights Are Within the G.O.P. Mainstream
Wisconsin Retirement Adds to Democrats’ Burden in Senate Races
Sizing Up Iowa Without Huckabee
Nate Silver, Guest Ethicist
We Won’t Have Donald Trump to Kick Around Anymore
Paging Rick Perry: How a Southerner Could Sweep to the G.O.P. Nomination
On the Economics of Mass Transit and the Value of Common Sense
Advice for Young Journalists in the Digital Age
Reads & Reactions
Now Running for President: Mitch Daniels’s Ghost
Special Election Warrants Caution for Forecasters — and for Republicans
The Ryan Budget Tipping Point
Six Months After Midterm Disaster, Hopeful Signs for Democrats
The Simple Case for Taking Herman Cain Seriously
The Not-So-Simple Case for Taking Herman Cain Seriously
Ranking Baseball’s Best Ballparks
Republicans May Need ‘Exit Strategy’ From Medicare Plan
As Mets’ Image Slumps, So Does Attendance
Running the Numbers on the Debt Ceiling Vote
On the Maddeningly Inexact Relationship Between Unemployment and Re-Election
What Do Economic Models Really Tell Us About Elections?
Wednesday Night Is All Right for Loving
The 10-Word Question That Could Cost Obama the Election
Polls Find Huntsman Unacceptable to Many in Republican Base
Weiner’s Seat Could Be Scrambled in Redistricting
Questions Amid the Wreckage of Gingrich’s Campaign
Just How Much Is a Tony Worth?
Reads & Reactions
The Electoral Effect of Sex Scandals
In Hedging Iowa Bets, Is Romney Going for Silver?
Debate Swings Door Open for Perry, Closed for Palin
The Governors’ Advantage in Presidential Races Is Bigger Than You Thought
Why Republicans Should Keep Expectations Modest for Winning Weiner’s Seat
Let’s Talk About Redistricting
Poll Finds a Shift Toward More Libertarian Views
Let’s Keep Talking About Redistricting
A Look at Readers’ Comments on Our Libertarian Post
Handicapping the Republican Field: Part I, the Top Tier
Handicapping the Republican Field: Part II, the Wild Cards
On the Claim that Republicans Want a Debt Default
Cuomo’s Presidential Moment Forms Contrast With Obama
2 Roads Diverged in an Iowa Cornfield …
Cuomo, Obama and the Realm of the Possible
The Future of Same-Sex Marriage Ballot Measures
The Danger in Counting on Markets to Drive a Debt-Limit Deal
Reads and Reactions
How Tim Pawlenty Is Like RC Cola
Calling Foul on N.B.A.’s Claims of Financial Distress
N.B.A. Disputes Forbes Analysis Suggesting League is Profitable
Why the Republicans Resist Compromise
Liberal Democrats Have Leverage on Debt Deal
In Coverage of Jobs Report, Misplaced Attention to Horse Race
Freshmen Republicans Push House Toward Right
In California, a Not-So-Special Performance for Democrats
Despite Benefit Disparities, Middle Class Supports Mortgage Deduction
G.O.P.’s No-Tax Stance Is Outside Political Mainstream
Nobody Wins the Debt Default Blame Game
A Bad Economy Could Harm House Republicans
Is Obama Against Romney a Toss-Up?
Two Paths in Budget Debate and in 2012
G.O.P. Governors Swing Right, Leaving Voters Behind
Unfavorable Ratings for Both Major Parties Near Record Highs
Speaker Boehner’s Big Gamble
Washington Is Out of Touch. How About Wall Street?
Romney and Perry: Dual Front-Runners?
It’s All Over but the Face-Saving?
Surveying the Electoral Damage of the Debt Debate
Boehner’s Three-Legged Stool of Doom
Readers’ Comments: A Refresher Course
How Boehner’s Bill Has Hurt, and How It Could Help, Republicans
How Far Will Republicans Go to Avoid Defense Cuts?
The Fine Print on the Debt Deal
What the White House Left on the Table
Double Dip or Not, Economy Is Falling Further Behind
The Stock Market Is the Least of Obama’s Worries
Debt Deal Could Be a Job-Killer For Incumbents
Why S.&P.’s Ratings Are Substandard and Porous
Long-Term Investors Can Relax (a Little)
Reading the Wisconsin Recall Vote
Wisc. Results Suggest Recall of Governor Would Be Close
G.O.P. House Majority at Risk
Why Ames Actually Matters
Reads & Reactions
You’ve Just Won the Ames Straw Poll; What Are You Going to Do Next?
Is Iowa Irrelevant?
Pondering Perry’s Electability
Confidence in Obama, and in the Economy, Declines
There’s Room for More G.O.P. Candidates
Why Another Democrat Wouldn’t Do Better Than Obama in 2012
Perry Surges in Polls, Testing Romney’s Strategy
A New York Hurricane Could Be a Multibillion-Dollar Catastrophe
How Irene Lived Up to the Hype
Popularity and Pedigree Matter in the B.C.S.
Despite Keys, Obama Is No Lock
The North Dakota Paradox
In Jobs Data, ‘Surprises’ Mean Bad News
Bachmann’s Steep Path to the Nomination
Race to Replace Weiner Down to the Wire
Electability a Primary Liability for Perry
‘Jobs, Jobs, Jobs’ Versus the S-Word
Social Status and How the Elected Vote
‘Keys to the White House’ Historian Responds
Republicans Are Clear Favorites in New York and Nevada Special Elections
A Guide to Cutting Through Special-Election Spin
For Democrats, It’s 2010 All Over Again
History May Point Toward More Conservative G.O.P. Nominee
Pennsylvania Electoral College Plan Could Backfire on G.O.P.
Reads & Reactions
Pre-Election Polls Underestimate the Success of Women Candidates
Would Al Gore Have Won in 2000 Without the Electoral College?
Views of Perry Turn More Negative Since First Debate
Romney Leads Endorsement Race
A Look at PolitiFact Grades of Candidates
The Case for Buying Low on Perry
Is Christie the Anti-Perry or the Anti-Romney?
September Collapse of Red Sox Could Be Worst Ever
Stealth Democracy
Christie, Clinton and the Calendar
Bill Buckner Strikes Again
Perry Slumps in Polls, but Not to Romney’s Gain
Reads and Reactions
The Price of Running Late, Part 1
A West Virginia Forecast: High Uncertainty
The Moneyball of Campaign Advertising (Part 1)
How to Know Whether Cain Is Able
Police Clashes Spur Coverage of Wall Street Protests
New Hampshire’s Contrarian Streak
Tonight’s Debate Deserves the Hype
A Slow but Unsteady Debate for Perry
The Moneyball of Campaign Advertising (Part 2)
Early New Hampshire Primary Could Backfire on Romney
Reads and Reactions
The Geography of Occupying Wall Street (and Everywhere Else)
Gallup Poll Is First to Find Plurality Support for Marijuana Legalization
Vegas Debate: A Game of Seven-Candidate Draw?
Romney’s Premature Perry Panic
Motherhood and Marijuana
Political Newspaper Endorsements: History and Outcome
Herman Cain, Outlier
Herman Cain and the Hubris of Experts
Reads and Reactions
Prior Experience and Presidential Greatness
Media Distrust May Shield Cain From the Right’s Critiques
The Pawlenty Surge Was Never Coming
Harassment Allegations Could Cut at Core of Cain’s Appeal
Choose Obama’s Re-Election Adventure
It’s Not Too Late for Imprudent Speculation About Other Republican Candidates
Cain: Up, Down or Sideways?
Magic Johnson and Public Opinion on AIDS and Sex
Gingrich Rises in Polls But Has Major Obstacles to Nomination
Is Perry Toast?
The Gingrich Surge Has Come
Romney’s Early-State Obstacle Course
A ‘Radical Centrist’ View on Election Forecasting
Which Economic Indicators Best Predict Presidential Elections?
Reads and Reactions
Romney’s Making the Right Play in Iowa
In the Land of the Salamanders, the Newt is King
Gingrich, Immigration and ‘What Would Reagan Do?’
Romney Dominating Race for Endorsements
Newspaper’s Endorsement Has Been Leading Indicator in New Hampshire
The Buyer’s Remorse Primary
Are All Politics Still Local?
Does Romney Have a Moderate Problem?
Mistrust of Institutions May Touch G.O.P. Itself
How Safe Is Gingrich’s Lead in Iowa?
Other Than That, Mr. Cain, How Was the Campaign?
Gingrich’s Unimpeachable Conservative Credential
The Real G.O.P. Dark Horse: None of the Above
After $10,000 Offer, Some Bet Against Romney
Reads and Reactions
Jon Huntsman’s Path to Victory
A First Iowa Forecast: Race Is Still Wide Open
The Politics of the Top 1 Percent
Gingrich Momentum Slows, Polls Suggest
How Our Primary Forecasts Work
Do Iowa Polls Predict New Hampshire Results?
Des Moines Register Endorsement Has a Mixed Predictive Track Record
Paul Moves Into Lead in Iowa Forecast
Explaining Obama’s Approval Rating Bounce
In Iowa, Conservative Republicans Have Overachieved Polls
Paul’s Influence Doesn’t Just Depend on Him
Reads and Reactions
How Can Romney Lose?
A Snapshot of the Race for the Senate
Polling Gridlock in Iowa Could Produce Last-Minute Momentum
New Iowa Poll May Understate Paul’s Support
The Santorum Surge in Iowa and Beyond
Our Smartest and Dumbest Columns of 2011
Iowa Update: Slow and Steady May Win the Race for Romney