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2010 Senate Rankings table listing 15 states with party indicators and incumbent names or Open seat labels

Tables 2008-04-09

2010 Senate Rankings

From FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: The Education Gap, Part II by Nate Silver

Bar chart showing electoral vote distribution from simulations, with Obama electoral votes on x-axis and number of simulations on y-axis, peaking near 380 votes.

Charts 2008-04-16

Electoral Vote Distribution

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Pennsylvania Prediction: Clinton to net 12 delegates, 120K popular votes by Nate Silver

US electoral map showing Obama vs McCain projection dated 10/26/2008 with Obama at 351.2 and McCain at 186.8, states colored red or blue.

Maps 2008-04-16

Obama vs McCain Projection – 10/26/2008

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Pennsylvania Prediction: Clinton to net 12 delegates, 120K popular votes by Nate Silver

Comparison of Obama vs McCain 2008 election results showing Electoral Vote, Win Percentage, and Popular Vote with pie charts.

Charts 2008-04-16

Obama vs McCain: Electoral Vote, Win Percentage, Popular Vote

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Pennsylvania Prediction: Clinton to net 12 delegates, 120K popular votes by Nate Silver

Scenario Analysis table showing probabilities and simulation counts for various US Electoral College outcomes involving Obama and McCain.

Tables 2008-04-16

Scenario Analysis: Electoral College Simulation Results

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Pennsylvania Prediction: Clinton to net 12 delegates, 120K popular votes by Nate Silver

Senate Scorecard table and bar chart showing probability of Democrats controlling various numbers of Senate seats, with seats categorized from Tilts Dem to Safe GOP.

Charts 2008-04-16

Senate Scorecard

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Pennsylvania Prediction: Clinton to net 12 delegates, 120K popular votes by Nate Silver

Pie chart showing Senate seats held by Democrats at 56.6 percent and Republicans at 41.4 percent.

Charts 2008-04-16

Senate Seats Held: Dems vs GOP

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Pennsylvania Prediction: Clinton to net 12 delegates, 120K popular votes by Nate Silver

Super Tracker scatter and trend line chart showing daily polling averages between Obama and McCain from January to October, with Obama leading by +7.2.

Charts 2008-04-16

Super Tracker: Obama vs. McCain Polling

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Pennsylvania Prediction: Clinton to net 12 delegates, 120K popular votes by Nate Silver

Two US maps showing Tipping Point States percentages and Return on Investment Index rankings for swing states, with numbered lists of top 15 states each.

Maps 2008-04-16

Tipping Point States and Return on Investment Index

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Pennsylvania Prediction: Clinton to net 12 delegates, 120K popular votes by Nate Silver

Scatter plot with a red downward-trending regression line showing data points from 3/4 to 4/22, with y-axis values ranging from -3 to 27.

Charts 2008-04-21

Scatter plot with trend line (3/4–4/22)

From The Pennsylvania Lottery by Nate Silver

Color-coded map of West Virginia's three Congressional Districts as of the 108th Congress, with districts labeled 1, 2, and 3.

Maps 2008-05-13

West Virginia Congressional Districts – 108th Congress

From FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: West Virginia Preview: Clinton by 39 points, 105,000 votes by Nate Silver

Super Tracker line chart showing daily polling averages and trend line for Obama vs McCain from February to June, with lead margins on the y-axis.

Charts 2008-06-17

Super Tracker: Obama vs. McCain Poll Margins

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Politics Done Right: Trendline now calculated from daily numbers by Nate Silver

Swing State Analysis table showing Tipping Point States and Must-Win States with percentage bars for each state in a US election context.

Tables 2008-06-17

Swing State Analysis: Tipping Point States and Must-Win States

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Politics Done Right: Defining a "Must Win" (Technical) by Nate Silver

Super Tracker line chart showing daily polling averages and trend line for Obama vs McCain from February to June, with lead margins on the y-axis.

Charts 2008-06-17

Super Tracker: Obama vs. McCain Poll Margins

From Trendline now calculated from daily numbers by Nate Silver

Swing State Analysis table showing Tipping Point States and Must-Win States with percentage bars for each state in a 2012 election context.

Tables 2008-06-18

Swing State Analysis: Tipping Point States and Must-Win States

From Defining a “Must Win” (Technical) by Nate Silver

Bar chart showing electoral vote distribution from simulations, with Obama electoral votes on x-axis and number of simulations on y-axis, peaking around 375-380.

Charts 2008-06-22

Electoral Vote Distribution

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Why Obama isn't like Dukakis by Nate Silver

US electoral map showing Obama vs McCain projection as of October 23, 2008, with states colored blue for Obama and red for McCain, showing Obama 354.4 to McCain 183.6.

Maps 2008-06-22

Obama vs McCain Projection – October 23, 2008

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Why Obama isn't like Dukakis by Nate Silver

Pie charts comparing Obama vs McCain across Electoral Vote, Win Percentage, and Popular Vote in a US election.

Charts 2008-06-22

Obama vs McCain: Electoral Vote, Win Percentage, Popular Vote

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Why Obama isn't like Dukakis by Nate Silver

Scenario Analysis table showing probabilities for various US presidential election outcomes including Electoral College tie, recounts, popular vote wins, and state-level scenarios.

Tables 2008-06-22

Scenario Analysis: Presidential Election Probabilities

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Why Obama isn't like Dukakis by Nate Silver

Senate Scorecard showing 2008 US Senate race ratings with Democratic and Republican seat probabilities, including a bar chart of Democrats controlling at least a given number of seats.

Charts 2008-06-22

Senate Scorecard – 2008 Election Ratings

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Why Obama isn't like Dukakis by Nate Silver

Pie chart showing Senate seats held by Democrats at 56.7 percent and Republicans at 41.3 percent

Charts 2008-06-22

Senate Seats Held: Dems vs GOP

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Why Obama isn't like Dukakis by Nate Silver

FiveThirtyEight Super Tracker scatter and trend line chart showing Obama vs McCain polling margins over time with projection and trend lines.

Charts 2008-06-22

Super Tracker: Obama vs. McCain Polling Margins

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Why Obama isn't like Dukakis by Nate Silver

Two US maps showing Tipping Point States with percentage rankings and a Return on Investment Index with numerical scores for key swing states in an election analysis.

Maps 2008-06-22

Tipping Point States and Return on Investment Index

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Why Obama isn't like Dukakis by Nate Silver

Line chart tracking win percentages for Obama and McCain from March 2 to June 22, showing Obama rising to about 75% and McCain falling to about 25%.

Charts 2008-06-23

Win Percentage Tracker

From FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: The Win Percentage Tracker Returns by Nate Silver

Line chart tracking win percentages for Obama and McCain from March 2 to June 22, showing Obama rising to about 75% and McCain falling to about 25%.

Charts 2008-06-23

Win Percentage Tracker

From The Win Percentage Tracker Returns by Nate Silver

US map showing Obama-defined battleground states color-coded in blue, red, and yellow with a legend for northeastern states.

Maps 2008-06-25

Obama-Defined "Battleground" States

From FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: The Obama Eighteen by Sean Quinn

US map showing Obama-defined battleground states color-coded in blue, red, and yellow, with a legend for northeastern states.

Maps 2008-06-26

Obama-Defined "Battleground" States

From The Obama Eighteen by Sean Quinn

Super Tracker scatter and line chart showing daily polling averages, trend, and projection for Obama vs McCain from February to June, with Obama leading throughout.

Charts 2008-06-28

Super Tracker: Obama vs. McCain Polling

From FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Construction Season Over (Technical) by Nate Silver

Super Tracker scatter and line chart showing daily polling averages, trend, and projection for Obama vs McCain from February to June.

Charts 2008-06-28

Super Tracker: Obama vs. McCain Polling

From Construction Season Over (Technical) by Nate Silver

Line chart showing campaign news interest from February 2007 to July 2008 for Republicans, Democrats, and Independents, with Democrats reaching 52 and Republicans at 28 by July 2008.

Charts 2008-07-03

Campaign News Interest

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Politics Done Right: Energy Gap: Following Campaign News "Very Closely" by Sean Quinn

Line chart showing campaign news interest from February 2007 to July 2008 for Republicans, Democrats, and Independents, with Democrats reaching 52 and Republicans at 28 by July 2008.

Charts 2008-07-03

Campaign News Interest

From Energy Gap: Following Campaign News “Very Closely” by Sean Quinn

Table comparing presidential candidate support percentages from May 1988 to June 2008, showing Democratic, Republican, and Other/DK candidates with strongly support breakdowns.

Tables 2008-07-15

Obama in the Lead, With More Strong Supporters

From FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Hard Support vs. Soft Support by Sean Quinn

Table comparing presidential candidate support percentages from May 1988 to June 2008, showing Democratic, Republican, and Other/DK candidates with strongly support breakdowns.

Tables 2008-07-15

Obama in the Lead, With More Strong Supporters

From Hard Support vs. Soft Support by Sean Quinn

Mid-July Battlegrounds table showing Win% and Electoral Votes for swing states, with red states leaning Republican and blue states leaning Democrat.

Tables 2008-07-16

Mid-July Battlegrounds: Win% and EV by State

From FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: 538 Battlegrounds as of Mid-July by Sean Quinn

Table showing projected 5-10% McCain states with win percentage and electoral votes for North Dakota, South Dakota, Alaska, Georgia, South Carolina, West Virginia, Arizona, and Texas.

Tables 2008-07-16

Projected 5-10% McCain States: Win% and EV

From FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: 538 Battlegrounds as of Mid-July by Sean Quinn

Table showing projected 5-10% Obama win percentage states with their win percentages and electoral votes.

Tables 2008-07-16

Projected 5-10% Obama Win States

From FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: 538 Battlegrounds as of Mid-July by Sean Quinn

Mid-July battleground states table showing Win percentage and Electoral Votes for states colored red or blue, from FiveThirtyEight.

Tables 2008-07-16

Mid-July Battlegrounds: Win% and EV by State

From 538 Battlegrounds as of Mid-July by Sean Quinn

Table showing projected 5-10% McCain win states with win percentage and electoral votes for North Dakota, South Dakota, Alaska, Georgia, South Carolina, West Virginia, Arizona, and Texas.

Tables 2008-07-16

Projected 5-10% McCain States: Win% and EV

From 538 Battlegrounds as of Mid-July by Sean Quinn

Table showing projected 5-10% Obama win margin states with win percentage and electoral votes for New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Jersey, Oregon, Wisconsin, and Delaware.

Tables 2008-07-16

Projected 5-10% Obama Win States

From 538 Battlegrounds as of Mid-July by Sean Quinn

Table showing Democratic engagement advantage across five election years from 1992 to 2008, broken down by voter party affiliation across five survey questions.

Tables 2008-07-18

Democrats Hold Engagement Advantage

From FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Likely Voters More Republican? by Sean Quinn

Table showing Democratic engagement advantage across five election years from 1992 to 2008, broken down by voter party affiliation across five survey questions.

Tables 2008-07-18

Democrats Hold Engagement Advantage

From Likely Voters More Republican? by Sean Quinn

Table showing how informative respondents found Obama's trip, broken down by Total, Republican, Democrat, and Independent percentages.

Tables 2008-08-01

How Informative was Obama's Trip?

From FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: How You Look, How You Sound, What You Say by Sean Quinn

Table showing poll results on perceived press bias in favor of Obama, broken down by party affiliation for July and June 2008.

Tables 2008-08-01

Many Still See Press Bias in Favor of Obama

From FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: How You Look, How You Sound, What You Say by Sean Quinn

Table showing how informative respondents found Obama's trip, broken down by Total, Republican, Democrat, and Independent percentages.

Tables 2008-08-01

How Informative was Obama's Trip?

From How You Look, How You Sound, What You Say by Sean Quinn

Table showing poll results on perceived press bias in favor of Obama, broken down by party affiliation for July and June 2008.

Tables 2008-08-01

Many Still See Press Bias in Favor of Obama

From How You Look, How You Sound, What You Say by Sean Quinn

A chart showing a steep exponential decay curve dropping sharply from the left and flattening toward the right, with a small highlighted yellow region near the base.

Charts 2008-08-07

Exponential Decay Curve Chart

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Politics Done Right: On Likely Voters and the Long Tail by Nate Silver

A chart showing a steep exponential decay curve dropping sharply from the left and flattening toward the right, with a small highlighted yellow region near the base.

Charts 2008-08-07

Exponential decay curve chart

From On Likely Voters and the Long Tail by Nate Silver

Histogram showing electoral vote distribution from simulations, with red bars for Romney wins and blue bars for Obama wins across possible Obama electoral vote totals.

Charts 2008-08-11

Electoral Vote Distribution

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: The Persistent Myth of the Bradley Effect by Nate Silver

US electoral map showing Obama vs McCain projection dated 9/21/2008, with Obama at 311.5 and McCain at 226.5 electoral votes, states colored blue or red.

Maps 2008-08-11

Obama vs McCain Projection – 9/21/2008

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: The Persistent Myth of the Bradley Effect by Nate Silver

Pie chart infographic comparing Obama vs McCain across Electoral Vote, Win Percentage, and Popular Vote metrics.

Charts 2008-08-11

Obama vs McCain: Electoral Vote, Win Percentage, Popular Vote

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: The Persistent Myth of the Bradley Effect by Nate Silver

Scenario Analysis table showing probabilities for various 2008 US presidential election outcomes for Obama and McCain based on simulation results.

Tables 2008-08-11

Scenario Analysis: Obama vs. McCain Election Probabilities

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: The Persistent Myth of the Bradley Effect by Nate Silver

FiveThirtyEight Senate Scorecard showing Democratic and Republican seat probabilities with candidate matchups and a bar chart of Democrats controlling at least a given number of seats.

Charts 2008-08-11

Senate Scorecard

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: The Persistent Myth of the Bradley Effect by Nate Silver

Pie chart showing Senate seats held by Democrats (55.3) and Republicans (42.7) with a star legend marker.

Charts 2008-08-11

Senate Seats Held: Dems vs GOP

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: The Persistent Myth of the Bradley Effect by Nate Silver

Super Tracker scatter plot showing daily polling averages and trend lines for Obama vs McCain from January to September, with projection and trend lines overlaid.

Charts 2008-08-11

Super Tracker: Obama vs. McCain Poll Tracker

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: The Persistent Myth of the Bradley Effect by Nate Silver

Two US maps showing Tipping Point States by percentage and Return on Investment Index by state, with ranked lists of 15 swing states each.

Maps 2008-08-11

Tipping Point States and Return on Investment Index

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: The Persistent Myth of the Bradley Effect by Nate Silver

Line chart showing media exposure over time for Obama and McCain as percent of campaign stories from June to August.

Charts 2008-08-12

Media Exposure Over Time

From FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Spears-Hilton Week Over, McCain's News Coverage Falls Again by Sean Quinn

Word cloud infographic comparing the most frequent words on McCain's and Obama's blogs, shaped like the United States map, titled Portrait of the candidate as a pile of words.

Maps 2008-08-12

Portrait of the Candidate as a Pile of Words — McCain's vs Obama's Blog Word Clouds

From FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Spears-Hilton Week Over, McCain's News Coverage Falls Again by Sean Quinn

Line chart comparing media exposure over time for Obama (D) and McCain (R) as percent of campaign stories from June through August.

Charts 2008-08-12

Media Exposure Over Time

From Spears-Hilton Week Over, McCain’s News Coverage Falls Again by Sean Quinn

Word clouds comparing the most frequent words on McCain's and Obama's campaign blogs, with annotations highlighting key terms like OBAMA, CAMPAIGN, BARACK, and COUNTRY.

Other 2008-08-12

Portrait of the Candidate as a Pile of Words

From Spears-Hilton Week Over, McCain’s News Coverage Falls Again by Sean Quinn

Table showing loyalty of Republicans who backed others in primary, comparing support percentages for McCain vs someone else across June, July, and August.

Tables 2008-08-14

Republicans Who Backed Others in Primary More Loyal

From FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: McCain Improves With Base, Obama Stays Flat by Sean Quinn

Table showing Clinton primary supporters' backing of Obama vs McCain over June, July, August, with comparison to Obama supporters.

Tables 2008-08-14

Some Clinton Primary Supporters Not Yet On Board

From FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: McCain Improves With Base, Obama Stays Flat by Sean Quinn

Table showing swing voter data across June, July, and August, breaking down Obama and McCain supporter categories by percentage.

Tables 2008-08-14

Swing Voters: One In Three Remain In Play

From FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: McCain Improves With Base, Obama Stays Flat by Sean Quinn

Table showing loyalty of Republicans who backed others in primary, comparing support for McCain, Obama, and Other/DK across June, July, and August.

Tables 2008-08-14

Republicans Who Backed Others in Primary More Loyal

From McCain Improves With Base, Obama Stays Flat by Sean Quinn

Table showing Clinton primary supporters' backing of Obama vs McCain over June, July, August, with comparison to Obama supporters.

Tables 2008-08-14

Some Clinton Primary Supporters Not Yet On Board

From McCain Improves With Base, Obama Stays Flat by Sean Quinn

Table showing swing voter breakdown between Obama and McCain for June, July, and August, with percentages for each category.

Tables 2008-08-14

Swing Voters: One In Three Remain In Play

From McCain Improves With Base, Obama Stays Flat by Sean Quinn

FiveThirtyEight Super Tracker line chart showing Obama vs McCain polling margins over time with daily averages, trend, and projection lines.

Charts 2008-08-29

Super Tracker: Obama vs. McCain Polling Margins

From FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 8/29 by Nate Silver

FiveThirtyEight Super Tracker line chart showing Obama vs McCain polling margins over time with daily averages, trend, and projection lines.

Charts 2008-08-30

Super Tracker: Obama vs. McCain Polling Margins

From Today’s Polls, 8/29 by Nate Silver

Pie chart showing Senate seats held by Democrats (55.6) and Republicans (42.4) with a star legend marker.

Charts 2008-09-04

Senate Seats Held: Dems vs GOP

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: The <span style="font-style: italic;">Next</span> Next President by Nate Silver

Bar chart showing electoral vote distribution from simulations, with Obama Electoral Votes on x-axis and Number of Simulations on y-axis, peaking around 370-390.

Charts 2008-09-18

Electoral Vote Distribution

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 9/18: Obama Regains the Lead by Nate Silver

US electoral map showing Obama vs McCain projection dated 10/30/2008, with states colored blue for Obama and red for McCain, showing Obama 346.5 to McCain 191.5.

Maps 2008-09-18

Obama vs McCain Projection – 10/30/2008

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 9/18: Obama Regains the Lead by Nate Silver

Pie charts comparing Obama vs McCain across Electoral Vote, Win Percentage, and Popular Vote in a US election.

Charts 2008-09-18

Obama vs McCain: Electoral Vote, Win Percentage, Popular Vote

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 9/18: Obama Regains the Lead by Nate Silver

Scenario Analysis table showing probabilities for various 2008 US presidential election outcomes for Obama and McCain, with percentages and simulation counts out of 10000.

Tables 2008-09-18

Scenario Analysis: Obama vs. McCain Election Probabilities

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 9/18: Obama Regains the Lead by Nate Silver

Senate Scorecard showing 2008 US Senate race ratings by category from Tilts DEM to Safe GOP, with a bar chart of probability of Democrats controlling various seat totals.

Charts 2008-09-18

Senate Scorecard – 2008 Election Ratings

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 9/18: Obama Regains the Lead by Nate Silver

Pie chart showing Senate seats held by Democrats (57) and Republicans (41)

Charts 2008-09-18

Senate Seats Held: Dems 57, GOP 41

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 9/18: Obama Regains the Lead by Nate Silver

FiveThirtyEight Super Tracker line chart showing Obama vs McCain polling margin over time with daily averages, trend, and projection lines.

Charts 2008-09-18

Super Tracker

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 9/18: Obama Regains the Lead by Nate Silver

Two US maps showing Tipping Point States and Return on Investment Index for swing states, with ranked lists of 15 states and their percentage or index values.

Maps 2008-09-18

Tipping Point States and Return on Investment Index

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 9/18: Obama Regains the Lead by Nate Silver

Table showing incumbent party percent of two-party vote during debate periods from 1988 to 2000, with pre-debate, post-debate, bump, and total change columns.

Tables 2008-09-23

Incumbent Party Percent of Two-Party Vote During Debate Periods, 1988 to 2000

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Politics Done Right: Debates May Not Be Decisive After All by Nate Silver

Table showing incumbent party percent of two-party vote during debate periods from 1988 to 2000, with pre-debate, post-debate, bump, and total change columns.

Tables 2008-09-23

Incumbent Party Percent of Two-Party Vote During Debate Periods, 1988 to 2000

From Debates May Not Be Decisive After All by Nate Silver

Super Tracker scatter and line chart showing daily polling averages, trend, and projection for Obama vs McCain from January to September.

Charts 2008-09-25

Super Tracker: Obama vs. McCain Poll Tracker

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 9/25 by Nate Silver

Super Tracker scatter and line chart showing daily polling averages, trend, and projection for Obama vs McCain from January to September, with y-axis showing lead margins.

Charts 2008-09-25

Super Tracker: Obama vs. McCain Poll Margins

From Today’s Polls, 9/25 by Nate Silver

US electoral map showing Obama vs McCain 2008 election projection with states colored blue for Obama and red for McCain, dated October 8 2008.

Maps 2008-09-29

Obama vs McCain Projection — FiveThirtyEight (10/8/2008)

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Swing District Congressmen Doomed Bailout by Nate Silver

Three pie charts comparing Obama vs McCain across Electoral Vote, Win Percentage, and Popular Vote metrics.

Charts 2008-09-29

Obama vs McCain: Electoral Vote, Win Percentage, Popular Vote

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Swing District Congressmen Doomed Bailout by Nate Silver

Scenario Analysis table showing probabilities and counts for various 2008 US presidential election outcomes for Obama and McCain across different electoral scenarios.

Tables 2008-09-29

Scenario Analysis: Obama vs. McCain Electoral Probabilities

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Swing District Congressmen Doomed Bailout by Nate Silver

FiveThirtyEight Super Tracker scatter and trend chart showing daily polling averages, trend line, and projection for Obama vs McCain from January to October.

Charts 2008-09-29

Super Tracker: Obama vs. McCain Polling

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Swing District Congressmen Doomed Bailout by Nate Silver

Two US maps showing Tipping Point States percentages and Return on Investment Index scores for states in a presidential election analysis.

Maps 2008-09-29

Tipping Point States and Return on Investment Index

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Swing District Congressmen Doomed Bailout by Nate Silver

Bar chart showing electoral vote distribution from simulations, with red bars for Romney wins and blue bars for Obama wins across possible Obama electoral vote totals.

Charts 2008-10-01

Electoral Vote Distribution

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/1 by Nate Silver

US electoral map showing Obama vs McCain projection as of October 7, 2008, with states colored blue for Obama and red for McCain, showing Obama 345.4 to McCain 192.6.

Maps 2008-10-01

Obama vs McCain Projection – October 7, 2008

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/1 by Nate Silver

Three pie charts comparing Obama vs McCain across Electoral Vote, Win Percentage, and Popular Vote metrics.

Charts 2008-10-01

Obama vs McCain: Electoral Vote, Win Percentage, Popular Vote

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/1 by Nate Silver

Scenario Analysis table showing probabilities for various 2008 US presidential election outcomes for Obama and McCain, with percentages and simulation counts.

Tables 2008-10-01

Scenario Analysis: Obama vs. McCain Election Probabilities

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/1 by Nate Silver

Senate Scorecard showing Democratic and GOP seat probabilities with candidate matchups and a bar chart of Democrats controlling at least a given number of Senate seats.

Charts 2008-10-01

Senate Scorecard

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/1 by Nate Silver

Pie chart showing Senate seats held by Democrats (55.9) and Republicans (42.1) with a star symbol between party labels.

Charts 2008-10-01

Senate Seats Held: Dems vs GOP

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/1 by Nate Silver

Super Tracker scatter plot showing daily average, trend, and projection lines for Obama vs McCain polling margins from January to October 2008.

Charts 2008-10-01

Super Tracker: Obama vs McCain Poll Margins 2008

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/1 by Nate Silver

Two US maps showing Tipping Point States and Return on Investment Index for swing states, with ranked lists of top 15 states and their scores.

Maps 2008-10-01

Tipping Point States and Return on Investment Index

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/1 by Nate Silver

2010 Senate Rankings list showing top 10 states with seat status or incumbent names, numbered 1 through 10 with colored rank indicators.

Other 2008-10-05

2010 Senate Rankings

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Politics Done Right: New York Times Doesn’t Think North Carolina Is a Tossup by Sean Quinn

Senate Scorecard showing Democratic and Republican seat probabilities with candidate names, win percentages, and a bar chart of Democrats controlling at least a given number of Senate seats.

Charts 2008-10-05

Senate Scorecard

From Senate Polling Update, 10/4 by Nate Silver

Bar chart showing electoral vote distribution from simulations, plotting number of simulations against Obama electoral votes, with most likely EV totals listed.

Charts 2008-10-13

Electoral Vote Distribution

From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Mini Polling Update by Nate Silver

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