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December 2011 graphics

26 matches

Horizontal bar chart showing Republican primary preferences among moderate voters, with Romney leading at 24%, followed by Cain at 18% and Gingrich at 17%.

Charts 2011-12-02

Republican Primary Preferences: Moderate Voters

From Does Romney Have a Moderate Problem? by Nate Silver

Horizontal bar chart showing Republican primary preferences among somewhat conservative voters, with Cain at 24%, Gingrich and Romney tied at 23%, and others lower.

Charts 2011-12-02

Republican Primary Preferences: Somewhat Conservative Voters

From Does Romney Have a Moderate Problem? by Nate Silver

Horizontal bar chart showing Republican primary preferences among very conservative voters, with Cain leading at 31%, followed by Gingrich at 23% and Romney at 13%.

Charts 2011-12-02

Republican Primary Preferences: Very Conservative Voters

From Does Romney Have a Moderate Problem? by Nate Silver

Bar chart showing Romney favorability ratings by ideology, comparing favorable vs unfavorable percentages among Moderate, Somewhat Conservative, and Very Conservative groups.

Charts 2011-12-02

Romney Favorability Ratings by Ideology

From Does Romney Have a Moderate Problem? by Nate Silver

Line chart showing Republican trust in institutions from 1970 to 2010, with two trend lines for Hardly Any Confidence and Great Deal of Confidence converging over time.

Charts 2011-12-02

Republican Trust in Institutions

From Mistrust of Institutions May Touch G.O.P. Itself by Nate Silver

Iowa polling leaders one month before the Iowa Caucus for Republican and Democratic primaries from 1980 to 2008, showing candidate names and poll percentages.

Tables 2011-12-04

Iowa Polling Leaders One Month before Iowa Caucus

From How Safe Is Gingrich’s Lead in Iowa? by Nate Silver

Table showing New Hampshire polling leaders one month before the Iowa Caucus for Republican and Democratic primaries from 1984 to 2008, with candidates highlighted in yellow indicating eventual winners.

Tables 2011-12-04

N.H. Polling Leaders One Month before Iowa Caucus

From How Safe Is Gingrich’s Lead in Iowa? by Nate Silver

Scatter plot showing Herman Cain's national polling trend with pre-scandal and post-scandal data points from September to December, with trend lines indicating rise and fall.

Charts 2011-12-06

Herman Cain National Polling Trend

From Other Than That, Mr. Cain, How Was the Campaign? by Nate Silver

Dot plot showing the conservatism score of the median member of the U.S. House from 1930 to 2010, with blue dots shifting to red in recent decades.

Charts 2011-12-07

Conservatism of Median Member of U.S. House

From Gingrich’s Unimpeachable Conservative Credential by Nate Silver

Horizontal bar charts showing net acceptability scores for 2008 Democratic, 2008 Republican, and 2012 Republican presidential candidates, with blue bars for positive and red for negative values.

Charts 2011-12-09

2008 and 2012 Presidential Candidates -- Net Acceptability

From The Real G.O.P. Dark Horse: None of the Above by Nate Silver

Gallup poll table showing acceptability ratings for 2012 Republican presidential nominees among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, Nov-Dec 2011.

Tables 2011-12-09

Acceptable Republican Nominees for President, 2012 (Gallup Poll)

From The Real G.O.P. Dark Horse: None of the Above by Nate Silver

Table showing leaders in endorsements and polling after the New Hampshire Primary versus the eventual nominee for Democratic and Republican races from 1972 to 2008.

Tables 2011-12-09

Leaders in polling and endorsements after N.H. Primary

From The Real G.O.P. Dark Horse: None of the Above by Nate Silver

Table showing candidate polling percentages at 8:59 PM and 12:30 AM with change column for Romney, Gingrich, Paul, Huntsman, Bachmann, Perry, and Santorum.

Tables 2011-12-11

Candidate Poll Percentages: 8:59 PM vs 12:30 AM

From After $10,000 Offer, Some Bet Against Romney by Nate Silver

Polling-based projection table for Iowa dated 12/13/11 showing weighted poll average, reallocated average, momentum, and vote projection for seven Republican candidates.

Tables 2011-12-13

Polling-Based Projection for Iowa, 12/13/11

From A First Iowa Forecast: Race Is Still Wide Open by Nate Silver

Polling-based projection table for Iowa dated 12/13/11 showing vote projection, low and high range, and win probability for seven Republican candidates.

Tables 2011-12-13

Polling-Based Projection for Iowa, 12/13/11

From A First Iowa Forecast: Race Is Still Wide Open by Nate Silver

Horizontal bar chart showing average polling error by days in advance of a primary, ranging from 2.65 at 1-2 days to 10.02 at 120-150 days.

Charts 2011-12-16

Average Polling Error by Days in Advance of Primary

From How Our Primary Forecasts Work by Nate Silver

Stata regression output table showing OLS results for nh_actual on nh_pro and ia_pro with 54 observations, R-squared 0.8779.

Charts 2011-12-16

Stata OLS Regression Output: nh_actual on nh_pro and ia_pro

From Do Iowa Polls Predict New Hampshire Results? by Nate Silver

Stata regression output table showing OLS results for nh_actual on nh_pro, ia_pro, and ia_result with 54 observations, R-squared 0.9172.

Charts 2011-12-16

Stata OLS Regression Output: nh_actual on nh_pro, ia_pro, ia_result

From Do Iowa Polls Predict New Hampshire Results? by Nate Silver

Table showing Des Moines Register endorsements with projected vote before endorsement, actual vote, and change for candidates from 1988 to 2008.

Tables 2011-12-19

Des Moines Register Endorsements

From Des Moines Register Endorsement Has a Mixed Predictive Track Record by Nate Silver

Line chart showing Gallup Daily Economic Indexes including Economic Confidence Index and Job Creation Index from mid-2011, based on a three-day rolling average.

Charts 2011-12-21

Gallup Daily: Economic Indexes

From Explaining Obama’s Approval Rating Bounce by Nate Silver

Table of Iowa Caucus overachievers showing candidates, year, polling average, actual vote share, and difference.

Tables 2011-12-22

Iowa Overachievers

From In Iowa, Conservative Republicans Have Overachieved Polls by Nate Silver

Table of Iowa Caucus underachievers showing candidates, years, polling averages, actual vote shares, and differences.

Tables 2011-12-22

Iowa Underachievers

From In Iowa, Conservative Republicans Have Overachieved Polls by Nate Silver

Line chart showing 2012 Republican Presidential Iowa poll trends for Perry, Romney, Ron Paul, Cain, and Gingrich from June 9 to December 18.

Charts 2011-12-25

2012 Republican Presidential Iowa Poll Trends

From Reads and Reactions by Micah Cohen

Table of Senate odds guesstimates from Dec. 27, 2011, showing current party, Democratic win percentage, and GOP win percentage for each state grouped by competitiveness.

Tables 2011-12-28

Senate Odds Guesstimates — Dec. 27, 2011

From A Snapshot of the Race for the Senate by Nate Silver

Table showing FiveThirtyEight momentum bonus scores for Iowa Republican candidates as of December 29, 2011, with Santorum leading at +1.4.

Tables 2011-12-29

Current "momentum bonus" for Iowa – FiveThirtyEight Forecast Model, 12/29/2011

From The Santorum Surge in Iowa and Beyond by Nate Silver

Table showing Republican candidates with projected vote ranges and chance of winning, led by Mitt Romney at 23.9% projected votes and 63% chance of winning.

Tables 2011-12-30

Republican Candidates Projected Vote Range and Chance of Winning

From Iowa Update: Slow and Steady May Win the Race for Romney by Nate Silver