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August 2011 graphics

64 matches

Table showing propensity toward spending cuts for Democrats and Republicans across 18 government spending areas, with differences, from the 2010 General Social Survey.

Tables 2011-08-01

Preferences for Spending Cuts in Various Areas

From The Fine Print on the Debt Deal by Nate Silver

Line chart showing the Dow Jones Industrial Average from June 19, 1987 through January 19, 1988, depicting the dramatic crash in October 1987.

Charts 2011-08-04

Dow Jones (1987-06-19 through 1988-01-19)

From The Stock Market Is the Least of Obama’s Worries by Nate Silver

Scatter plot showing the relationship between net debt to GDP ratio in 2005 and chance of default implied by market as of 6/30/11, with R-squared of 0.12.

Charts 2011-08-08

Chance of Default vs. Net Debt to GDP Ratio, 2005

From Why S.&P.’s Ratings Are Substandard and Porous by Nate Silver

Scatter plot showing chance of default implied by market on 6/30/11 versus Standard & Poor's sovereign debt rating on 6/30/06, with R-squared of 0.08.

Charts 2011-08-08

Chance of Default vs. S&P Sovereign Debt Rating

From Why S.&P.’s Ratings Are Substandard and Porous by Nate Silver

Regression output table showing ANOVA summary and coefficient estimates with standard errors, t-statistics, p-values, and 95% confidence intervals for model sp_06.

Tables 2011-08-08

Regression Results Table for sp_06 Model

From Why S.&P.’s Ratings Are Substandard and Porous by Nate Silver

Regression output table showing model statistics, coefficients, standard errors, t-values, p-values, and 95% confidence intervals for sp_0609 and defaultp0609 variables.

Tables 2011-08-08

Regression Results Table: sp_0611 Model

From Why S.&P.’s Ratings Are Substandard and Porous by Nate Silver

S&P letter grade to number grade conversion table mapping credit ratings from AAA (9.0) down to D (0.0)

Tables 2011-08-08

S&P Letter Grade to Number Grade Conversion Table

From Why S.&P.’s Ratings Are Substandard and Porous by Nate Silver

Scatter plot showing the correlation between Corruption Perceptions Index 2005 and S&P Rating as of 6/30/06, with R-squared of 0.72.

Charts 2011-08-08

S&P Rating vs. Corruption Perceptions Index, 2005

From Why S.&P.’s Ratings Are Substandard and Porous by Nate Silver

Scatter plot showing 10-year real annualized total return vs S&P 500 valuation relative to long-run trend, with a negative trend line and R-squared of 0.4784.

Charts 2011-08-09

S&P 500 Valuation vs. 10-Year Real Annualized Total Return

From Long-Term Investors Can Relax (a Little) by Nate Silver

Area chart showing S&P 500 valuation versus long-term trend from 1871 to 2011, with blue areas above trend and red areas below trend.

Charts 2011-08-09

S&P 500 Valuation vs. Long-Term Trend, 1871-2011

From Long-Term Investors Can Relax (a Little) by Nate Silver

Line chart of the S&P 500 inflation-adjusted index from 1871 to 2011 on a logarithmic scale, with a trend line showing R-squared of 0.753.

Charts 2011-08-09

S&P 500, Inflation-Adjusted, 1871-2011 (logarithmic scale)

From Long-Term Investors Can Relax (a Little) by Nate Silver

Table showing Wisconsin Recall Elections results with district incumbents, dates, and vote percentages from 2010 and 2008 elections.

Tables 2011-08-09

Wisconsin Recall Elections

From Reading the Wisconsin Recall Vote by Nate Silver

Table comparing 2010 election results and 2011 recall vote percentages for six Wisconsin Republican incumbent districts, plus statewide totals.

Tables 2011-08-10

Wisconsin 2011 Recall vs. 2010 Election Results by District

From Wisc. Results Suggest Recall of Governor Would Be Close by Nate Silver

Table showing crude projection of House seat allocation based on 2012 House popular vote, with columns for popular vote margin, projected GOP seats, projected Dem seats, and projected swing.

Tables 2011-08-12

Crude Projection of House Seat Allocation Based on 2012 House Popular Vote

From G.O.P. House Majority at Risk by Nate Silver

Table showing crude projection of House seat allocation based on 2012 House popular vote, with columns for popular vote margin, projected GOP seats, projected Dem seats, and projected swing.

Tables 2011-08-12

Crude Projection of House Seat Allocation Based on 2012 House Popular Vote

From G.O.P. House Majority at Risk by Nate Silver

Scatter plot comparing Ames Straw Poll vote share vs Iowa Caucus vote share with a trend line showing R-squared of 0.58.

Charts 2011-08-13

Ames Straw Poll vs. Iowa Caucus Vote Share

From Why Ames Actually Matters by Nate Silver

Table showing hypothetical Ames Straw Poll results for Republican candidates with columns for Straw Poll, Iowa Poll, National Polls, Conservatism Score, and Iowa Caucus Projection.

Tables 2011-08-13

Hypothetical Ames Straw Poll Results

From Why Ames Actually Matters by Nate Silver

Scatter plot comparing Des Moines Register Poll percentages to Iowa Caucus Vote Share with a trend line showing R-squared of 0.39.

Charts 2011-08-13

Iowa Caucus Vote Share vs. Des Moines Register Poll

From Why Ames Actually Matters by Nate Silver

Scatter plot showing the relationship between national poll average and Iowa caucus vote share, with a trend line and R-squared value of 0.34.

Charts 2011-08-13

Iowa Caucus Vote Share vs. National Poll Average

From Why Ames Actually Matters by Nate Silver

Pre-Ames Iowa Caucus Projections table showing Iowa Poll, National Polls, Conservatism Score, and Iowa Caucus Projection for 10 Republican candidates.

Tables 2011-08-13

Pre-Ames Iowa Caucus Projections

From Why Ames Actually Matters by Nate Silver

Stata regression output showing coefficients, standard errors, t-statistics, and confidence intervals for a model regressing caucus on ames, iowapoll, latestart, natpolls, and conserv variables.

Charts 2011-08-13

Stata Regression Output: caucus on ames iowapoll latestart natpolls conserv

From Why Ames Actually Matters by Nate Silver

Table showing Post-Ames Iowa Projections for Republican candidates with Ames Straw Poll percentages, National Polls, and Iowa Caucus Projections.

Tables 2011-08-14

Post-Ames Iowa Projections

From You’ve Just Won the Ames Straw Poll; What Are You Going to Do Next? by Nate Silver

Table showing outcomes for Republican candidates who won or did not win the Ames Straw Poll, covering Iowa Caucus, Republican Nomination, and General Election.

Tables 2011-08-15

Ames Straw Poll Predictive Value Table

From Is Iowa Irrelevant? by Nate Silver

Horizontal bar chart showing the ideological composition of Republican primary electorates in 2008, comparing liberal/moderate vs conservative percentages by state.

Charts 2011-08-15

Ideological Composition of Republican Primary Electorates, 2008

From Is Iowa Irrelevant? by Nate Silver

Table showing Major League Leaders in Batting Average from 2006 to 2010, with columns for Year, Team, BA, and Won World Series.

Tables 2011-08-15

Major League Leaders in Batting Average

From Is Iowa Irrelevant? by Nate Silver

Meta-analysis bar chart showing regression t-scores for the marginal effect of winning Iowa caucuses on nomination probability, states won, and popular vote share for GOP and Democrats.

Charts 2011-08-15

Meta-Analysis of Iowa Caucus Results

From Is Iowa Irrelevant? by Nate Silver

Meta-analysis bar chart showing regression t-scores for the marginal effect of winning or vote share in the New Hampshire primary on nomination probability, states won, and popular vote share for GOP and Democrats.

Charts 2011-08-15

Meta-Analysis of New Hampshire Primary Results

From Is Iowa Irrelevant? by Nate Silver

Two tables showing Republican and Democratic presidential primary results from 1976 to 2008, comparing national polling leaders before Iowa with Iowa caucus winners, New Hampshire primary winners, and eventual nominees.

Tables 2011-08-15

National Polling Leader vs. Iowa Caucus, N.H. Primary, and Nominee 1976-2008

From Is Iowa Irrelevant? by Nate Silver

Table showing margin of victory for Texas Republicans in competitive statewide races in 2002, with Governor highlighted in red at plus 17.8 percent.

Tables 2011-08-17

Margin of Victory for Texas Republicans in Competitive Statewide Races, 2002

From Pondering Perry’s Electability by Nate Silver

Table showing margin of victory for Texas Republicans in competitive statewide races in 2006, with Governor highlighted in red at plus 9.2 percent.

Tables 2011-08-17

Margin of Victory for Texas Republicans in Competitive Statewide Races, 2006

From Pondering Perry’s Electability by Nate Silver

Table showing margin of victory for Texas Republicans in competitive statewide races in 2010, with Governor highlighted at the bottom with the smallest margin of +12.7%.

Tables 2011-08-17

Margin of Victory for Texas Republicans in Competitive Statewide Races, 2010

From Pondering Perry’s Electability by Nate Silver

Line chart showing Barack Obama's Gallup approval rating among adults aged 65+ from January to August 2011, with a declining red trend line.

Charts 2011-08-19

Barack Obama Gallup Approval Rating Among Adults Aged 65+

From Confidence in Obama, and in the Economy, Declines by Nate Silver

Line chart showing Barack Obama's Gallup approval rating among African-Americans from January to August 2011, with a red trend line showing a gradual decline from about 90 to 85 percent.

Charts 2011-08-19

Barack Obama Gallup Approval Rating Among African-Americans

From Confidence in Obama, and in the Economy, Declines by Nate Silver

Line chart showing Barack Obama's Gallup approval rating among conservative Democrats from January to August 2011, with a declining red trend line.

Charts 2011-08-19

Barack Obama Gallup Approval Rating Among Conservative Democrats

From Confidence in Obama, and in the Economy, Declines by Nate Silver

Line chart showing Barack Obama's Gallup approval rating among conservative Republicans from January to August 2011, with a red trend line hovering around 10 percent.

Charts 2011-08-19

Barack Obama Gallup Approval Rating Among Conservative Republicans

From Confidence in Obama, and in the Economy, Declines by Nate Silver

Line chart showing Barack Obama's Gallup approval rating among Hispanics from January to August 2011, with a red trend line indicating a declining trend from about 58 to 50.

Charts 2011-08-19

Barack Obama Gallup Approval Rating Among Hispanics

From Confidence in Obama, and in the Economy, Declines by Nate Silver

Line chart showing Barack Obama's Gallup approval rating among Liberal Democrats from January to August 2011, with a red trend line showing slight decline.

Charts 2011-08-19

Barack Obama Gallup Approval Rating Among Liberal Democrats

From Confidence in Obama, and in the Economy, Declines by Nate Silver

Line chart showing Barack Obama's Gallup approval rating among pure independents from January to August 2011, with a red downward trend line overlaid on the volatile blue data line.

Charts 2011-08-19

Barack Obama Gallup Approval Rating Among Pure Independents

From Confidence in Obama, and in the Economy, Declines by Nate Silver

Dot plot with confidence intervals showing change in Obama approval rating since start of 2011 across demographic groups, ranging from about -14 to +2.

Charts 2011-08-19

Change in Obama Approval Rating Since Start of 2011

From Confidence in Obama, and in the Economy, Declines by Nate Silver

Dual-axis line chart showing University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and GDP growth from January 2009 to July 2011, with a smoothing technique applied to monthly GDP estimates.

Charts 2011-08-19

Consumer Sentiment Index and GDP Growth (2009–2011)

From Confidence in Obama, and in the Economy, Declines by Nate Silver

Table showing the largest quarter-to-quarter declines in Gallup approval ratings for US presidents, listing president, quarter, current and prior quarter values, and change.

Tables 2011-08-19

Largest Quarter-to-Quarter Declines in Gallup Approval Ratings

From Confidence in Obama, and in the Economy, Declines by Nate Silver

Bubble chart plotting 2012 Republican presidential candidates on axes of Moderate-Conservative and Establishment-Insurgent, with bubble size indicating relative support.

Charts 2011-08-22

2012 GOP Candidates Ideological Positioning Bubble Chart

From There’s Room for More G.O.P. Candidates by Nate Silver

Bubble chart plotting 2012 Republican presidential candidates on axes of Moderate-Conservative and Establishment-Insurgent, with bubble size indicating relative support.

Charts 2011-08-22

2012 GOP Candidates: Moderate vs. Conservative, Establishment vs. Insurgent

From There’s Room for More G.O.P. Candidates by Nate Silver

Bubble chart plotting 2012 Republican presidential candidates on axes of Moderate-Conservative and Establishment-Insurgent, with bubble size indicating relative support.

Charts 2011-08-22

2012 GOP Candidates: Moderate vs. Conservative, Establishment vs. Insurgent

From There’s Room for More G.O.P. Candidates by Nate Silver

Bubble chart plotting 2012 Republican presidential candidates on axes of Moderate-Conservative and Establishment-Insurgent, with bubble size indicating relative support.

Charts 2011-08-22

2012 GOP Candidates: Moderate vs. Conservative, Establishment vs. Insurgent

From There’s Room for More G.O.P. Candidates by Nate Silver

Bubble chart plotting 2012 Republican presidential candidates on axes of Moderate-Conservative and Establishment-Insurgent, with bubble size indicating poll support.

Charts 2011-08-22

2012 GOP Candidates: Moderate vs. Conservative, Establishment vs. Insurgent

From There’s Room for More G.O.P. Candidates by Nate Silver

Bubble chart plotting 2012 Republican presidential candidates on axes of Moderate-Conservative and Establishment-Insurgent, with bubble size indicating support.

Charts 2011-08-22

2012 GOP Candidates: Moderate vs. Conservative, Establishment vs. Insurgent

From There’s Room for More G.O.P. Candidates by Nate Silver

Bubble chart plotting Republican presidential candidates on axes of Moderate-Conservative and Establishment-Insurgent, with overlapping colored circles sized by support.

Charts 2011-08-22

Republican Candidates Positioned by Ideology and Establishment Support

From There’s Room for More G.O.P. Candidates by Nate Silver

Bubble chart plotting Republican presidential candidates on axes of Moderate vs Conservative and Establishment vs Insurgent, with bubble size indicating relative support.

Charts 2011-08-22

Republican Candidates Positioned by Ideology: Moderate/Conservative vs Establishment/Insurgent

From There’s Room for More G.O.P. Candidates by Nate Silver

Scatter plot showing the relationship between presidential approval rating at midterm elections and the gain or loss of House seats, with labeled data points for each president.

Charts 2011-08-23

Presidential Approval Rating vs. House Seat Gains/Losses at Midterms

From Why Another Democrat Wouldn’t Do Better Than Obama in 2012 by Nate Silver

Scatter plot showing correlation between country satisfaction and presidential approval ratings, with Obama's 2009, 2010, and 2011 data points highlighted in red.

Charts 2011-08-23

Presidential Approval vs. Satisfied with Direction of Country (R²=0.5031)

From Why Another Democrat Wouldn’t Do Better Than Obama in 2012 by Nate Silver

Table showing average Republican primary poll numbers for candidates comparing mid-July through mid-August versus since Perry announcement with change column

Tables 2011-08-25

Average of Republican Primary Polls

From Perry Surges in Polls, Testing Romney’s Strategy by Nate Silver

Table showing average of Republican primary polls adjusted for name recognition, with columns for polling average since Perry announcement, Gallup name recognition, and recognition-adjusted poll average.

Tables 2011-08-25

Average of Republican Primary Polls Adjusted for Name Recognition

From Perry Surges in Polls, Testing Romney’s Strategy by Nate Silver

Table showing average Republican primary poll numbers for candidates before and after Rick Perry's announcement, with changes highlighted in red or black.

Tables 2011-08-25

Average of Republican Primary Polls without Palin and Giuliani

From Perry Surges in Polls, Testing Romney’s Strategy by Nate Silver

Table showing New Hampshire Republican Primary current polling trends split between Center-Right and Very Conservative candidates with vote totals.

Tables 2011-08-25

New Hampshire Republican Primary Current Polling Trend

From Perry Surges in Polls, Testing Romney’s Strategy by Nate Silver

Table showing estimated economic damage of a tropical cyclone hitting NYC at various wind speeds and distances, from tropical storm to Category 5 hurricane.

Tables 2011-08-26

Estimated Economic Damage of a Tropical Cyclone Hitting NYC

From A New York Hurricane Could Be a Multibillion-Dollar Catastrophe by Nate Silver

Table of tropical cyclones making landfall in the northeastern United States, showing wind speed, distance from NYC, normalized economic damage, and landfall locations from 1903 to 2008.

Tables 2011-08-26

Tropical Cyclones Making Landfall in Northeastern United States

From A New York Hurricane Could Be a Multibillion-Dollar Catastrophe by Nate Silver

Ranked table of Atlantic hurricanes receiving most media coverage since 1980, showing storm name, year, and news coverage in NUs for top 20 storms.

Tables 2011-08-29

Atlantic Hurricanes Receiving Most Media Coverage Since 1980

From How Irene Lived Up to the Hype by Nate Silver

Table showing average normalized economic damage in US billions for U.S. hurricanes by category at landfall from 1980 to 2011.

Tables 2011-08-29

Average Economic Damage – U.S. Hurricanes, 1980-2011

From How Irene Lived Up to the Hype by Nate Silver

Table ranking top Atlantic hurricanes by direct U.S. fatalities from 1980 onward, showing storm name, year, news coverage in NUs, and fatality count.

Tables 2011-08-29

Top Atlantic Hurricanes Ranked by Direct U.S. Fatalities, 1980-

From How Irene Lived Up to the Hype by Nate Silver

Table ranking top Atlantic hurricanes by normalized U.S. economic damage from 1980, showing rank, name, year, news coverage in NUs, and normalized damage in US billions.

Tables 2011-08-29

Top Atlantic Hurricanes Ranked by Normalized U.S. Economic Damage, 1980-

From How Irene Lived Up to the Hype by Nate Silver

Table showing projected margin of victory and chance of winning popular vote for incumbent party based on number of keys in favor, ranging from 0 to 13.

Tables 2011-08-31

Keys to the White House: Projected Margins and Win Probabilities

From Despite Keys, Obama Is No Lock by Nate Silver

Scatter plot showing margin of victory versus keys in favor of incumbent party, with a linear regression line and equation y=3.5451x-25.306, R²=0.5698.

Charts 2011-08-31

Margin of Victory vs. Keys in Favor of Incumbent Party

From Despite Keys, Obama Is No Lock by Nate Silver

Scatter plot showing margin of victory versus keys in favor of incumbent party, with a linear regression line and R-squared of 0.5698.

Charts 2011-08-31

Margin of Victory vs. Keys in Favor of Incumbent Party

From Despite Keys, Obama Is No Lock by Nate Silver