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October 2012 graphics

113 matches

Two maps of Vermont showing the 2008 presidential vote: left map displays county margins by color for Obama vs McCain, right map shows county turnout with proportional circles.

Maps 2012-10-01

The 2008 Vote in Vermont: County Margins and County Turnout

From ‘New’ Vermont Is Liberal, but ‘Old’ Vermont Is Still There by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates in Vermont versus the United States from 2009 to 2012, showing Vermont consistently lower than the US average.

Charts 2012-10-01

Unemployment Rate, Vermont vs. United States

From ‘New’ Vermont Is Liberal, but ‘Old’ Vermont Is Still There by Micah Cohen

Bar chart showing Vermont margin of victory compared to U.S. average in past presidential elections from 1972 to 2008, split by Democratic and Republican wins.

Charts 2012-10-01

Vermont Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections

From ‘New’ Vermont Is Liberal, but ‘Old’ Vermont Is Still There by Micah Cohen

US electoral map showing states colored red or blue indicating Republican and Democratic party affiliations or election results.

Maps 2012-10-02

US Political Map Red and Blue States

From New Polls Raise Chance of Electoral College Tie by Nate Silver

US electoral map showing states colored red or blue, likely representing Republican and Democratic party affiliations or election results.

Maps 2012-10-02

US Political Map Red vs Blue States

From New Polls Raise Chance of Electoral College Tie by Nate Silver

US electoral map showing states colored red for Republican and blue for Democrat, with most states red and coastal/northern states blue.

Maps 2012-10-02

US Political Map Red vs Blue States

From New Polls Raise Chance of Electoral College Tie by Nate Silver

US electoral map showing states colored red for Republican and blue for Democrat, likely depicting a presidential election result.

Maps 2012-10-02

US Presidential Election Results Map Red vs Blue States

From New Polls Raise Chance of Electoral College Tie by Nate Silver

US electoral map showing states colored red for Republican and blue for Democrat, likely depicting a presidential election result.

Maps 2012-10-02

US Presidential Election Results Map Red vs Blue States

From New Polls Raise Chance of Electoral College Tie by Nate Silver

US electoral map showing states colored red or blue, likely representing Republican and Democratic party results in a presidential election.

Maps 2012-10-02

US Presidential Election Results Map Red vs Blue States

From New Polls Raise Chance of Electoral College Tie by Nate Silver

US electoral map showing states colored red for Republican and blue for Democrat, likely depicting a presidential election result.

Maps 2012-10-02

US Presidential Election Results Map by State

From New Polls Raise Chance of Electoral College Tie by Nate Silver

US electoral map showing states colored red or blue, likely representing Republican and Democratic party results in a presidential election.

Maps 2012-10-02

US Presidential Election Results Map by State

From New Polls Raise Chance of Electoral College Tie by Nate Silver

US electoral map showing states colored red or blue, likely representing Republican and Democratic party results in a presidential election.

Maps 2012-10-02

US Presidential Election Results Map by State

From New Polls Raise Chance of Electoral College Tie by Nate Silver

Table of national polls released on Monday Oct 1 showing previous and Monday results plus change for Obama vs Romney across multiple pollsters

Tables 2012-10-02

National Polls Released on Monday, Oct. 1

From Oct. 1: Is the Presidential Race Tightening Heading Into the Debates? by Nate Silver

Table showing polling impact of first presidential debates from 1976 to 2008, listing incumbent and challenger poll numbers before and after each debate with net margin changes.

Tables 2012-10-03

Polling Impact of First Presidential Debate

From First Debate Often Helps Challenger in Polls by Nate Silver

Bar chart showing Colorado margin of victory in past presidential elections from 1972 to 2008, comparing Democratic and Republican wins.

Charts 2012-10-03

Colorado Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections

From Obama Leads, but a Romney Comeback Might Start Out West With Colorado by Micah Cohen

Bar chart comparing Obama's margin in 2008 exit polls vs 2012 Gallup by region, showing change toward Obama or GOP

Charts 2012-10-03

Obama's Decline in the West

From Obama Leads, but a Romney Comeback Might Start Out West With Colorado by Micah Cohen

Two maps of Colorado showing the 2008 presidential vote by county: left map shows Obama vs McCain margins by color, right map shows county voter turnout with sized circles.

Maps 2012-10-03

The 2008 Vote in Colorado: County Margins and County Turnout

From Obama Leads, but a Romney Comeback Might Start Out West With Colorado by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates in Colorado vs. the United States from 2009 to 2012, showing Colorado consistently below the national rate.

Charts 2012-10-03

Unemployment Rate, Colorado vs. United States

From Obama Leads, but a Romney Comeback Might Start Out West With Colorado by Micah Cohen

Table showing debate instant-reaction polls and head-to-head poll changes from 1984 to 2008, with CNN instant poll results and head-to-head changes marked in orange and purple bars.

Tables 2012-10-04

Debate Instant-Reaction Polls and Change in Head-to-Head Polls

From Oct. 3: Romney’s Electoral Challenge, and More on Debate Instant Polls by Nate Silver

Scatter plot showing the relationship between CNN instant reaction poll debate winner and change in head-to-head polls after the debate, with a regression line showing weak positive correlation.

Charts 2012-10-04

Debate Winner vs. Change in Head-to-Head Polls After Debate

From Oct. 3: Romney’s Electoral Challenge, and More on Debate Instant Polls by Nate Silver

US electoral map showing states colored red, blue, or yellow, likely depicting a presidential election result or forecast.

Maps 2012-10-04

US Electoral Map by State — Red, Blue, and Yellow

From Oct. 3: Romney’s Electoral Challenge, and More on Debate Instant Polls by Nate Silver

Table showing unemployment rate change over election years from 1952 to 2012, comparing December of previous year to September of election year.

Tables 2012-10-05

Unemployment Rate Change over Election Year

From Jobs News Makes Obama’s Case Easier by Nate Silver

Two maps of Wyoming showing the 2008 presidential vote: county margins by color and county turnout by circle size, with labeled cities Casper and Cheyenne.

Maps 2012-10-06

The 2008 Vote in Wyoming: County Margins and County Turnout

From Wyoming, Energy and Libertarianism by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates in Wyoming versus the United States from 2009 to 2012, showing Wyoming consistently below the national rate.

Charts 2012-10-06

Unemployment Rate, Wyoming vs. United States

From Wyoming, Energy and Libertarianism by Micah Cohen

Horizontal bar chart showing Wyoming margin of victory for Democratic and Republican candidates in past presidential elections from 1972 to 2008.

Charts 2012-10-06

Wyoming Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections

From Wyoming, Energy and Libertarianism by Micah Cohen

Table estimating Romney's debate bounce across four pollsters using post-DNC averages, Sunday polls, and share of interviews since the debate.

Tables 2012-10-08

Estimating Romney's Debate Bounce

From Oct. 7: National Polls Show Signs of Settling by Nate Silver

Scatter plot showing the relationship between job growth leading up to a presidential election and the incumbent party's margin of victory or defeat, with Obama's 2012 jobs number marked.

Charts 2012-10-08

Jobs Numbers and Keeping the White House

From Amid Volatile Polling, Keep an Eye on Election Fundamentals by Nate Silver

Horizontal bar chart showing California margin of victory for Democrats and Republicans in past presidential elections from 1972 to 2008.

Charts 2012-10-09

California Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections

From In California, Growing Diversity First Made Its Mark by Micah Cohen

Two maps of California showing the 2008 presidential vote: county margins by color for Obama vs McCain, and county voter turnout shown as proportional circles.

Maps 2012-10-09

The 2008 Vote in California

From In California, Growing Diversity First Made Its Mark by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates in California versus the United States from 2009 to 2012, showing California consistently higher.

Charts 2012-10-09

Unemployment Rate, California vs. United States

From In California, Growing Diversity First Made Its Mark by Micah Cohen

Table showing Monday's swing state polls comparing September poll results to Monday poll results with net change, covering Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Tables 2012-10-09

Monday's Swing State Polls

From Oct. 8: A Great Poll for Romney, in Perspective by Nate Silver

Table showing polling trendlines on Tuesday with pollster, state, post-convention pre-debate poll average, new poll results, and shift columns for Obama vs Romney.

Tables 2012-10-10

Polling Trendlines on Tuesday

From Oct. 9: Romney Erases Obama’s Convention Bounce in Forecast by Nate Silver

Battleground State Projections table comparing 538 now-cast, RCP, TPM, and HuffPost Pollster forecasts for swing states as of Oct. 10, 11 p.m.

Tables 2012-10-11

Battleground State Projections as of Oct. 10, 11 p.m.

From Oct. 10: Is Romney Leading Right Now? by Nate Silver

Table of projected Electoral Votes from various forecasting systems as of Oct. 10, 11 p.m., showing Obama, Romney, and difference columns.

Tables 2012-10-11

Projected Electoral Votes – Oct. 10 Comparison Table

From Oct. 10: Is Romney Leading Right Now? by Nate Silver

Bar chart comparing margin of victory in past presidential elections for Alabama and Mississippi, showing Democrat vs Republican wins from 1972 to 2008.

Charts 2012-10-11

Margin of Victory in Past Presidential Elections: Alabama and Mississippi

From Solid South Reversed, but Still Divided by Race by Micah Cohen

Two maps of Alabama showing the 2008 presidential vote by county: left map shows Obama vs McCain margins by color, right map shows county voter turnout as sized circles.

Maps 2012-10-11

The 2008 Vote in Alabama: County Margins and County Turnout

From Solid South Reversed, but Still Divided by Race by Micah Cohen

Two maps of Mississippi showing the 2008 presidential vote by county: left map displays Obama vs McCain margins by color, right map shows county voter turnout as sized circles.

Maps 2012-10-11

The 2008 Vote in Mississippi: County Margins and County Turnout

From Solid South Reversed, but Still Divided by Race by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates for Alabama, Mississippi, and the United States from 2009 to 2012.

Charts 2012-10-11

Unemployment Rate, Ala. vs. Miss. vs. United States

From Solid South Reversed, but Still Divided by Race by Micah Cohen

Battleground State Projections table comparing 538 now-cast, RCP, TPM, and HuffPost Pollster forecasts for swing states as of Oct. 11, 6 p.m.

Tables 2012-10-12

Battleground State Projections — Oct. 11

From Oct. 11: Obama’s Swing State ‘Firewall’ Has Brittle Foundation by Nate Silver

Table of Friday polls with trendline comparisons showing pre-debate poll averages, Friday poll results, and net changes for various pollsters across multiple states.

Tables 2012-10-13

Friday Polls with Trendline Comparisons

From Oct. 12: Romney Debate Gains Show Staying Power by Nate Silver

FiveThirtyEight forecast table comparing 538 Oct. 13 predictions vs. an alternate version adjusted for Hispanic vote, showing Obama electoral votes, win percentages, and state win probabilities.

Tables 2012-10-13

FiveThirtyEight Forecast with Adjustment to Hispanic Vote

From Oct. 13: Arizona and the Spanish-Speaking Vote by Nate Silver

Bar chart showing North Dakota margin of victory for Democrat and Republican candidates in past presidential elections from 1972 to 2008.

Charts 2012-10-14

North Dakota Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections

From An Extra Ingredient in North Dakota Politics: Oil by Micah Cohen

Two maps of North Dakota showing the 2008 presidential vote: county margins for Obama vs McCain and county voter turnout with proportional circles.

Maps 2012-10-14

The 2008 Vote in North Dakota: County Margins and Turnout

From An Extra Ingredient in North Dakota Politics: Oil by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates in North Dakota versus the United States from 2009 to 2012, showing ND consistently lower around 3-4% versus US around 8-10%.

Charts 2012-10-14

Unemployment Rate, North Dakota vs. United States

From An Extra Ingredient in North Dakota Politics: Oil by Micah Cohen

Two maps of Maine showing 2008 presidential election county margins (Obama vs McCain in blue and red) and county voter turnout with proportional circles.

Maps 2012-10-15

Maine County Margins and County Turnout, 2008 Presidential Election

From In Maine, Independent Streak Complicates Political Landscape by Micah Cohen

Bar chart showing Maine margin of victory for Democrat and Republican candidates in past presidential elections from 1972 to 2008.

Charts 2012-10-15

Maine Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections

From In Maine, Independent Streak Complicates Political Landscape by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates in Maine versus the United States from 2009 to 2012, showing Maine consistently below the national rate.

Charts 2012-10-15

Unemployment Rate, Maine vs. United States

From In Maine, Independent Streak Complicates Political Landscape by Micah Cohen

Two side-by-side tables showing poll results excluding Obama's or Romney's 3 best polls, with margins for each pollster.

Tables 2012-10-16

Excluding Obama's vs Romney's 3 Best Polls

From Oct. 15: Distracted by Polling Noise by Nate Silver

Table showing national poll changes from most recent survey, listing previous and new results plus trend for multiple polling organizations in the 2012 US presidential race.

Tables 2012-10-16

National Polls: Change from Most Recent Survey

From Oct. 15: Distracted by Polling Noise by Nate Silver

Side-by-side tables showing how cherry-picking Romney's or Obama's 3 best polls from various pollsters changes the average result in the 2012 election.

Tables 2012-10-16

Picking Romney's 3 Best Polls vs. Picking Obama's 3 Best Polls

From Oct. 15: Distracted by Polling Noise by Nate Silver

Table showing state poll changes from pre-debate survey with previous results, new results, and trend columns for FL, PA, IA, and VA.

Tables 2012-10-16

State Polls: Change from Pre-Debate Survey

From Oct. 15: Distracted by Polling Noise by Nate Silver

Scatter plot with trend line showing net change in polls following next debate vs. previous debate, with R-squared of 0.1942.

Charts 2012-10-16

Net Change in Polls Following Next Debate vs. Previous Debate

From No Guarantee of Obama Rebound in Second Debate by Nate Silver

Table showing polling margin changes before and after presidential debates from 1976 to 2008, broken down by first, second, and third debate with Before, After, and Change columns.

Tables 2012-10-16

Polling Margin Before and After Presidential Debates, 1976-2008

From No Guarantee of Obama Rebound in Second Debate by Nate Silver

Table of national polls released on Tuesday 10/16 showing pollster results comparing Romney and Obama leads with previous poll, Tuesday poll, and change columns.

Tables 2012-10-17

National Polls Released on Tuesday, 10/16

From Oct. 16: Can Polls Exaggerate Bounces? by Nate Silver

Horizontal bar chart showing Rhode Island margin of victory for Democrats and Republicans in past presidential elections from 1976 to 2008.

Charts 2012-10-18

Rhode Island Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections

From Rhode Island: The Most Elastic State by Micah Cohen

Two maps of Rhode Island showing the 2008 presidential vote by county: left map displays Obama vs McCain margins by color, right map shows county voter turnout as proportional circles.

Maps 2012-10-18

The 2008 Vote in Rhode Island: County Margins and Turnout

From Rhode Island: The Most Elastic State by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates in Rhode Island versus the United States from 2009 to 2012, showing Rhode Island consistently higher.

Charts 2012-10-18

Unemployment Rate, Rhode Island vs. United States

From Rhode Island: The Most Elastic State by Micah Cohen

Pie chart showing the weight distribution of poll types in FiveThirtyEight's Popular Vote Polling Average: State polls 68%, Other U.S. polls 22%, Other daily tracking polls 7%, Gallup national tracking poll 3%.

Charts 2012-10-18

Weight in FiveThirtyEight Popular Vote Polling Average

From Gallup vs. the World by Nate Silver

Pie chart showing the weight breakdown in FiveThirtyEight's trendline calculation: State polls 45%, Other daily tracking polls 24%, Other U.S. polls 19%, Gallup national tracking poll 12%.

Charts 2012-10-18

Weight in FiveThirtyEight Trendline Calculation

From Gallup vs. the World by Nate Silver

Table of battleground state polls added to database on Thursday, showing pollster, new poll, previous poll, and change columns for states including CO, IA, MI, NC, NV, OH, PA, VA, and WI.

Tables 2012-10-19

Battleground State Polls Added to Database on Thursday

From Oct. 18: Obama Gains in Forecast on Resiliency in Swing State Polls by Nate Silver

Horizontal bar chart showing Indiana margin of victory compared to U.S. in past presidential elections from 1972 to 2008, split by Democrat and Republican.

Charts 2012-10-19

Indiana Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections

From After Brief Role as Battleground, Indiana Exits, Stage Right by Micah Cohen

Two side-by-side maps of Indiana showing the 2008 presidential vote by county: left map shows Obama vs McCain margins by color, right map shows county voter turnout as sized circles.

Maps 2012-10-19

The 2008 Vote in Indiana: County Margins and County Turnout

From After Brief Role as Battleground, Indiana Exits, Stage Right by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates in Indiana versus the United States from 2009 to 2012, showing Indiana above the US rate throughout.

Charts 2012-10-19

Unemployment Rate, Indiana vs. United States

From After Brief Role as Battleground, Indiana Exits, Stage Right by Micah Cohen

Friday Battleground Polls table showing state, pollster, Friday poll results, previous poll results, and change for multiple swing states in a US election.

Tables 2012-10-20

Friday Battleground Polls

From Oct. 19: After Romney Gains, Should Obama Concede Florida? by Nate Silver

Friday National Polls table showing daily tracking and other national polls comparing Obama and Romney results with previous poll changes.

Tables 2012-10-20

Friday National Polls – Obama vs Romney Tracking

From Oct. 19: After Romney Gains, Should Obama Concede Florida? by Nate Silver

US electoral map showing states colored red or blue, likely representing Republican and Democratic party results or projections.

Maps 2012-10-20

US Electoral Map Red vs Blue States

From Oct. 19: After Romney Gains, Should Obama Concede Florida? by Nate Silver

US electoral map showing states colored red or blue, likely representing Republican and Democratic party results in a presidential election.

Maps 2012-10-20

US Presidential Election Results Map by State

From Oct. 19: After Romney Gains, Should Obama Concede Florida? by Nate Silver

US electoral map showing states colored red or blue, likely representing Republican and Democratic party affiliations or election results.

Maps 2012-10-20

US States Red-Blue Political Map

From Oct. 19: After Romney Gains, Should Obama Concede Florida? by Nate Silver

Stacked area chart showing the relative weight of Economy vs Polls in an election forecast model as days until election decrease from 197 to 1.

Charts 2012-10-21

Economy vs. Polls Weight by Days Until Election

From Oct. 20: Calm Day in Forecast, but Volatility Ahead by Nate Silver

Table of Saturday battleground state polls showing pollsters and results for FL, NC, OH, VA, and WI, with Obama or Romney leads.

Tables 2012-10-21

Saturday's Battleground State Polls

From Oct. 20: Calm Day in Forecast, but Volatility Ahead by Nate Silver

Bar chart showing the gender gap in US presidential elections since 1972, with separate columns for how women and men voted and the resulting gender gap by year.

Charts 2012-10-21

Gender Gap in Presidential Elections Since 1972

From ‘Gender Gap’ Near Historic Highs by Nate Silver

Bar chart showing the gender gap in recent polls, comparing Obama vs Romney support among women and men across multiple polling organizations.

Charts 2012-10-21

Gender Gap in Recent Polls

From ‘Gender Gap’ Near Historic Highs by Nate Silver

US electoral map showing states colored red, blue, and yellow, likely representing political party affiliations or election results by state.

Maps 2012-10-21

US States Political Affiliation Map

From ‘Gender Gap’ Near Historic Highs by Nate Silver

US electoral or political map with states colored red, blue, or yellow indicating three-way classification of states.

Maps 2012-10-21

US States Three-Category Political Map

From ‘Gender Gap’ Near Historic Highs by Nate Silver

Table comparing battleground state vote estimates from 538, RCP, HuffPost Pollster, and TPM as of 11 p.m. Oct. 21, showing Obama or Romney leads per state.

Tables 2012-10-22

Battleground State Vote Estimates As of 11 p.m., Oct. 21

From Oct. 21: Uncertainty Clouds Polling, but Obama Remains Electoral College Favorite by Nate Silver

Horizontal bar chart showing news citations for national tracking polls from Lexis-Nexis database Oct. 14-21, with Gallup leading at 227 citations.

Charts 2012-10-22

News Citations for National Tracking Polls

From Oct. 21: Uncertainty Clouds Polling, but Obama Remains Electoral College Favorite by Nate Silver

Table of Sunday's National Tracking Polls showing Saturday and Sunday poll results and changes for pollsters PPP, Gallup, RAND, Rasmussen Reports, IBD/TIPP, and Average.

Tables 2012-10-22

Sunday's National Tracking Polls

From Oct. 21: Uncertainty Clouds Polling, but Obama Remains Electoral College Favorite by Nate Silver

Table showing instant reaction poll results after presidential debates, with columns for CBS News, CNN, Google, and Average across 1st, VP, 2nd, and 3rd debates.

Tables 2012-10-23

Instant Reaction Polls After Debates

From Obama Unlikely to Get Big Debate Bounce, but a Small One Could Matter by Nate Silver

Table of Monday's national polls showing results from various polling organizations, with Romney leading in some and Obama leading in others, averaging a tie.

Tables 2012-10-23

Monday's National Polls

From Oct. 22: Ohio Has 50-50 Chance of Deciding Election by Nate Silver

US electoral map showing states colored red for Republican and blue for Democrat, likely depicting a presidential election result.

Maps 2012-10-23

US Presidential Election Results Map by State

From Oct. 22: Ohio Has 50-50 Chance of Deciding Election by Nate Silver

Bar chart showing Arizona margin of victory in past presidential elections comparing Democratic and Republican results from 1972 to 2008.

Charts 2012-10-23

Arizona Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections

From Why Arizona Isn’t a Battleground State (and Why It May Be Soon) by Micah Cohen

Two maps of Arizona showing the 2008 presidential vote by county: left map shows Obama vs McCain margins by color, right map shows county voter turnout as sized circles.

Maps 2012-10-23

The 2008 Vote in Arizona: County Margins and County Turnout

From Why Arizona Isn’t a Battleground State (and Why It May Be Soon) by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates in Arizona versus the United States from 2009 to 2012, showing Arizona consistently higher.

Charts 2012-10-23

Unemployment Rate, Arizona vs. United States

From Why Arizona Isn’t a Battleground State (and Why It May Be Soon) by Micah Cohen

Table showing Tuesday's battleground state polls with pollster, Tuesday poll result, previous poll result, and net change for FL, NH, NV, OH, and VA.

Tables 2012-10-24

Tuesday's Battleground State Polls

From Oct. 23: The Virtues and Vices of Election Prediction Markets by Nate Silver

Table of Tuesday's national polls showing pollster results for Romney vs Obama, previous poll results, and net change for each pollster.

Tables 2012-10-24

Tuesday's National Polls — Romney vs. Obama

From Oct. 23: The Virtues and Vices of Election Prediction Markets by Nate Silver

Table showing Wednesday's national polls comparing Romney and Obama results from various pollsters, with previous poll data and net change columns.

Tables 2012-10-25

Wednesday's National Polls

From Oct. 24: In Polls, Romney’s Momentum Seems to Have Stopped by Nate Silver

Horizontal bar chart showing Michigan margin of victory for Democrats and Republicans in past presidential elections from 1972 to 2008.

Charts 2012-10-26

Michigan Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections

From Auto Rescue and Low Home-State Bonus Keep Michigan Out of Play by Micah Cohen

Two maps of Michigan showing county-level voter turnout with sized circles and county-level margin of victory by party color for the 2008 presidential election.

Maps 2012-10-26

The 2008 Vote in Michigan: County-Level Turnout and Margin of Victory

From Auto Rescue and Low Home-State Bonus Keep Michigan Out of Play by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates for Michigan and the United States from 2009 to 2012, showing Michigan consistently higher than the national average.

Charts 2012-10-26

Unemployment Rate, Michigan vs. United States

From Auto Rescue and Low Home-State Bonus Keep Michigan Out of Play by Micah Cohen

Competitive State Summary table showing electoral votes, polling averages, forecasts with prediction intervals, and win probabilities for Obama and Romney in swing states.

Tables 2012-10-26

Competitive State Summary – Obama vs Romney Forecast

From Oct. 25: The State of the States by Nate Silver

Table of Thursday's battleground state polls showing pollster results and net changes from post-Denver and pre-Denver polls for CO, FL, IA, NC, NV, PA, VA, and WI.

Tables 2012-10-26

Thursday's Battleground State Polls

From Oct. 25: The State of the States by Nate Silver

Table of Thursday's national polls showing pollster results and net changes from post-Denver and pre-Denver polls, with an average of tie and Romney +3.0.

Tables 2012-10-26

Thursday's National Polls — Net Change from Post- and Pre-Denver

From Oct. 25: The State of the States by Nate Silver

Table of Friday's Battleground State Polls showing pollster results and net changes from post-Denver and pre-Denver polls for multiple states.

Tables 2012-10-27

Friday's Battleground State Polls

From Oct. 26: State Poll Averages Usually Call Election Right by Nate Silver

Table showing Friday's national polls with results and net changes from post-Denver and pre-Denver polls for various pollsters.

Tables 2012-10-27

Friday's National Polls – Romney vs. Obama

From Oct. 26: State Poll Averages Usually Call Election Right by Nate Silver

Table showing historical performance of state polling averages with 10 days remaining until election, listing year, state, number of polls, poll leader margin, and winner.

Tables 2012-10-27

Historical Performance of State Polling Averages With 10 Days Remaining Until Election

From Oct. 26: State Poll Averages Usually Call Election Right by Nate Silver

Probit regression curve showing chance of winning a state (0-100%) as a function of lead in poll average (+0.0 to +6.0), with an S-shaped curve rising steeply from 50% at zero lead.

Charts 2012-10-27

Probit Regression on State Poll Averages

From Oct. 26: State Poll Averages Usually Call Election Right by Nate Silver

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