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September 2012 graphics

83 matches

Table and scatter plot showing TV ratings and polling bounce for challenging party conventions from 1968 to 2008, with a regression line (R²=0.4679).

Charts 2012-09-01

Challenging Party Convention -- TV Ratings and Polling 'Bounce'

From Aug. 31: TV Ratings May Be Leading Indicator of Convention Bounce by Nate Silver

Line chart showing the projected combined convention bounce from late August through September 30, with Romney leading briefly before Obama takes a sustained lead.

Charts 2012-09-03

Projected Combined Convention Bounce

From Sept. 2: Split Verdict in Polls on Romney Convention Bounce by Nate Silver

FRED line chart showing All Employees Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS) from 2008 to 2013 in thousands of persons, with shaded recession area.

Charts 2012-09-04

All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS) 2008–2013

From In Looking Back Four Years, Voters Have Short Memories by Nate Silver

FRED line chart showing All Employees Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS) from 2009 to 2013, with shaded recession area and employment recovering from about 129,000 to 134,000 thousand persons.

Charts 2012-09-04

All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS) 2009–2013

From In Looking Back Four Years, Voters Have Short Memories by Nate Silver

Line chart from FRED showing total nonfarm employees in thousands from 2009 to 2013, with a shaded recession area and recovery trend.

Charts 2012-09-04

All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS) 2009–2013

From In Looking Back Four Years, Voters Have Short Memories by Nate Silver

Line chart from FRED showing total nonfarm employees (PAYEMS) from 1980 to 1985, with shaded recession periods, vintage dated 1984-11-02.

Charts 2012-09-04

All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS) Vintage 1984-11-02

From In Looking Back Four Years, Voters Have Short Memories by Nate Silver

FRED line chart showing All Employees Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS) from 2000 to 2005, with shaded recession area around 2001, vintage 2004-10-08.

Charts 2012-09-04

All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS) Vintage 2004-10-08

From In Looking Back Four Years, Voters Have Short Memories by Nate Silver

Line chart from ALFRED showing total nonfarm employees (PAYEMS) vintage 1980-10-03, with shaded recession area around 1980, ranging from about 79000 to 91000 thousand persons.

Charts 2012-09-04

All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS) Vintage: 1980-10-03

From In Looking Back Four Years, Voters Have Short Memories by Nate Silver

Line chart of All Employees Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS) from 1988 to 1993, vintage 1992-10-02, showing employment peak around 1990 and decline during recession.

Charts 2012-09-04

All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS) Vintage: 1992-10-02

From In Looking Back Four Years, Voters Have Short Memories by Nate Silver

Bar chart showing All Employees Total Nonfarm PAYEMS vintage 2012-09-03, displaying monthly changes in thousands of persons from July 2011 to July 2012.

Charts 2012-09-04

All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS) Vintage: 2012-09-03

From In Looking Back Four Years, Voters Have Short Memories by Nate Silver

Table and scatter plot showing polling volatility before conventions versus out-party convention bounce from 1968 to 2012, with a regression line showing R-squared of 0.429.

Charts 2012-09-04

Polling Volatility Before Conventions vs. Out-Party Convention Bounce

From Sept. 3: Par or Bogey? by Nate Silver

Table showing RNC Convention Bounce with poll averages since May 1, post-convention polls, and shifts by state and pollster, showing Romney gains.

Tables 2012-09-04

R.N.C. Convention Bounce -- Change from Long-Term Average

From Sept. 3: Par or Bogey? by Nate Silver

Table showing RNC Convention Bounce with change from prior poll, listing state, pollster, last pre-convention poll, post-convention poll, and shift for multiple pollsters.

Tables 2012-09-04

R.N.C. Convention Bounce -- Change from Prior Poll

From Sept. 3: Par or Bogey? by Nate Silver

Diverging bar chart showing North Carolina margin of victory in past presidential elections, comparing Democratic vs Republican wins from 1980 to 2008.

Charts 2012-09-04

North Carolina Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections

From In North Carolina, Obama’s 2008 Victory Was Ahead of Schedule by Micah Cohen

Two maps of North Carolina showing the 2008 presidential vote by county: one choropleth map of Obama vs McCain margins and one bubble map of county-level voter turnout.

Maps 2012-09-04

The 2008 Vote in North Carolina: County-Level Margins and Turnout

From In North Carolina, Obama’s 2008 Victory Was Ahead of Schedule by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates in North Carolina versus the United States from January 2009 to early 2012, showing NC consistently higher than the US average.

Charts 2012-09-04

Unemployment Rate, North Carolina vs. United States

From In North Carolina, Obama’s 2008 Victory Was Ahead of Schedule by Micah Cohen

Table showing average poll results around party conventions from 1968 to 2008, with columns for different time windows before and after conventions and actual election results.

Tables 2012-09-05

Polling Around Party Conventions

From Sept. 4: The Simple Case for Why Obama Is the Favorite by Nate Silver

Line chart showing the projected combined convention bounce from late August through September 30, with Romney leading early then Obama taking the lead after his convention.

Charts 2012-09-05

Projected Combined Convention Bounce

From Sept. 4: The Simple Case for Why Obama Is the Favorite by Nate Silver

Line chart showing projected convention bounces for Romney and Obama from late August through September 30, with Obama peaking around +4 and Romney dipping to about -4.

Charts 2012-09-05

Projected Convention Bounces

From Sept. 4: The Simple Case for Why Obama Is the Favorite by Nate Silver

Line chart showing the projected combined convention bounce from late August through September 30, with Romney leading briefly before Obama takes a sustained lead.

Charts 2012-09-06

Projected Combined Convention Bounce

From Sept. 5: Looking Ahead After Charlotte by Nate Silver

FiveThirtyEight Now-cast table showing Electoral College Win Probability, Popular Vote Win Probability, Electoral Votes, and Popular Vote Margin among likely and registered voters.

Tables 2012-09-06

FiveThirtyEight "Now-cast" Election Probabilities Table

From Obama Would Be Big Favorite With ‘Fired Up’ Base by Nate Silver

Table showing poll results before and after Clinton's speech, with implied results for Obama across five pollsters including Gallup, Ipsos, RAND, Rasmussen, and an average.

Tables 2012-09-09

Implied Poll Results Since Clinton Speech by Pollster

From Sept. 8: Conventions May Put Obama in Front-Runner’s Position by Nate Silver

Table showing average poll results around party conventions from 1968 to 2008, comparing incumbent vs challenger leads at five time points relative to conventions, with actual election results.

Tables 2012-09-09

Polling Around Party Conventions

From Sept. 8: Conventions May Put Obama in Front-Runner’s Position by Nate Silver

County-level map of Texas showing 2008 presidential election margins, with Republican McCain counties in red and Democratic Obama counties in blue.

Maps 2012-09-09

County-Level Margins in 2008 — Texas

From A Sense of Waiting for Godot for Texas Democrats by Micah Cohen

Bubble map of Texas showing county-level voting margins in the 2008 presidential election, with bubble size indicating population concentration around major cities.

Maps 2012-09-09

County-Level Margins in 2008 — Texas

From A Sense of Waiting for Godot for Texas Democrats by Micah Cohen

Horizontal bar chart showing Texas margin of victory in past presidential elections, comparing U.S. and Texas results from 1972 to 2008.

Charts 2012-09-09

Texas Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections

From A Sense of Waiting for Godot for Texas Democrats by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates in Texas versus the United States from January 2009 to January 2012, showing Texas consistently lower than the US.

Charts 2012-09-09

Unemployment Rate, Texas vs. United States

From A Sense of Waiting for Godot for Texas Democrats by Micah Cohen

Map of the southeastern US showing 100-mile and 350-mile radius circles centered on New Orleans, with cities Houston, Mobile, and Tallahassee labeled.

Maps 2012-09-09

New Orleans 100-Mile and 350-Mile Radius Map

From Why Weather Forecasters Are Role Models by Nate Silver

Line chart showing the projected combined convention bounce from late August through September 30, with Romney leading early then Obama taking the lead after his convention.

Charts 2012-09-10

Projected Combined Convention Bounce

From Sept. 9: Call It as You See It by Nate Silver

Table showing average poll results around party conventions from 1968 to 2008, comparing incumbent vs challenger leads at five time points versus actual election results.

Tables 2012-09-11

Polling Around Party Conventions

From Sept. 10: Will Obama’s Bounce Hold? by Nate Silver

2012 US Electoral College map showing Obama winning 270 electoral votes versus Republican 268, with states colored blue for Democrat and red for Republican.

Maps 2012-09-12

2012 User-Generated Electoral College Map

From Sept. 11: Florida a True Must-Win for Romney by Nate Silver

Table showing Obama must-win states with the chance of Obama winning the Electoral College in a close election conditional upon losing each state, ranging from Pennsylvania at 10% to Virginia at 45%.

Tables 2012-09-12

Obama "Must-Win" States

From Sept. 11: Florida a True Must-Win for Romney by Nate Silver

Table showing Romney 'Must-Win' States with percentage chance of winning Electoral College conditional on losing each state, ranging from Florida at 2% to Minnesota at 45%.

Tables 2012-09-12

Romney "Must-Win" States

From Sept. 11: Florida a True Must-Win for Romney by Nate Silver

Bar chart showing Arkansas margin of victory in past presidential elections from 1984 to 2008, comparing Democratic and Republican wins.

Charts 2012-09-12

Arkansas Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections

From In Arkansas, the Lost Art of Splitting Tickets by Micah Cohen

Two side-by-side maps of Arkansas showing 2008 presidential vote county-level margins by party and county-level voter turnout as proportional circles.

Maps 2012-09-12

The 2008 Vote in Arkansas: County-Level Margins and Turnout

From In Arkansas, the Lost Art of Splitting Tickets by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates in Arkansas versus the United States from January 2009 to January 2012, showing Arkansas consistently below the national rate.

Charts 2012-09-12

Unemployment Rate, Arkansas vs. United States

From In Arkansas, the Lost Art of Splitting Tickets by Micah Cohen

Table comparing likely voter vs registered voter poll results since the Democratic convention, showing Obama leads and Romney enthusiasm gaps across five polling firms.

Tables 2012-09-13

Likely Voter vs. Registered Voter Results since Democratic Convention

From Sept. 12: Polls Since Conventions Point to Decline in ‘Enthusiasm Gap’ by Nate Silver

Two tables comparing average polling error for registered voter vs. likely voter polls before and after September 1, by election year from 1988 to 2008.

Tables 2012-09-13

Registered Voter vs. Likely Voter Polls: Average Error Before and After Sept. 1

From Sept. 12: Polls Since Conventions Point to Decline in ‘Enthusiasm Gap’ by Nate Silver

Table comparing registered voter vs. likely voter poll averages by election year from 1988 to 2008, showing net shift toward Republicans.

Tables 2012-09-13

Registered Voter vs. Likely Voter Polls: Average Result

From Sept. 12: Polls Since Conventions Point to Decline in ‘Enthusiasm Gap’ by Nate Silver

Line chart showing the projected combined convention bounce from late August to September 30, shifting from Romney +4 to Obama +1 advantage.

Charts 2012-09-14

Projected Combined Convention Bounce

From Sept. 13: After Convention Bounce, Holding Obama’s Polls to a Higher Standard by Nate Silver

Bar chart showing Connecticut margin of victory in past presidential elections, comparing U.S. and Connecticut results for Democratic and Republican parties from 1972 to 2008.

Charts 2012-09-16

Connecticut Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections

From In Connecticut, Wall Street Community May Limit Obama Victory by Micah Cohen

Two maps of Connecticut showing 2008 presidential vote: county-level margins for Obama vs McCain and county-level voter turnout by county.

Maps 2012-09-16

The 2008 Vote in Connecticut: County-Level Margins and Turnout

From In Connecticut, Wall Street Community May Limit Obama Victory by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates in Connecticut vs. the United States from January 2009 to January 2012, showing both lines near 8-10%.

Charts 2012-09-16

Unemployment Rate, Connecticut vs. United States

From In Connecticut, Wall Street Community May Limit Obama Victory by Micah Cohen

Line chart showing the projected combined convention bounce from late August to September 30, shifting from Romney +4 to Obama +1.

Charts 2012-09-17

Projected Combined Convention Bounce

From Sept. 16: Watching the Clock and Awaiting the Unknown by Nate Silver

Table showing Electoral College win probability for Obama and Romney based on various National Popular Vote Result scenarios.

Tables 2012-09-18

Electoral College Win Probability by Popular Vote Result

From Sept. 17: Electoral College May Not Help Obama by Nate Silver

Horizontal bar chart showing Kansas margin of victory for Democratic and Republican parties in past presidential elections from 1972 to 2008.

Charts 2012-09-19

Kansas Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections

From The End of a Kansas Tradition: Moderation by Micah Cohen

Two maps of Kansas showing the 2008 presidential vote: county-level margins by party and county-level voter turnout with bubble sizes indicating share of total turnout.

Maps 2012-09-19

The 2008 Vote in Kansas: County-Level Margins and Turnout

From The End of a Kansas Tradition: Moderation by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates in Kansas versus the United States from 2009 to 2012, showing both declining over time with the US rate higher than Kansas.

Charts 2012-09-19

Unemployment Rate, Kansas vs. United States

From The End of a Kansas Tradition: Moderation by Micah Cohen

Table comparing Obama win probabilities and popular vote margins across swing states using polls without cellphones, polls with cellphones, and the 538 Model.

Tables 2012-09-19

State Obama Win Probabilities and Popular Vote Margin: Cellphone Poll Comparison

From Obama’s Lead Looks Stronger in Polls That Include Cellphones by Nate Silver

Table showing polls that include cellphones since party conventions for top 10 tipping point states, with Obama leads listed by state and polling organization.

Tables 2012-09-20

Polls That Include Cellphones Since Party Conventions

From Sept. 19: A Wild Day in the Polls, but Obama Ends Up Ahead by Nate Silver

Line chart showing national tracking polls by release date from Sept 7-20, comparing Obama vs Romney margins across Gallup, Rasmussen, RAND, Ipsos, and Average.

Charts 2012-09-21

National Tracking Polls by Release Date

From Sept. 20: Obama’s Convention Bounce May Not Be Receding by Nate Silver

Table showing Obama's lead or deficit in polls since the Democratic Convention, broken down by state and poll type including telephone polls with and without cellphone interviews and internet polls.

Charts 2012-09-21

Obama Lead or Deficit in Polls Since Democratic Convention

From Sept. 20: Obama’s Convention Bounce May Not Be Receding by Nate Silver

Table showing change in swing state election forecasts between August 28 and September 21, with net change columns for Obama and Romney leads.

Tables 2012-09-22

Change in Swing State Forecasts Since Aug. 28

From Sept. 21: Presidential Race Changes, but Swing States Stay the Same by Nate Silver

Table showing enthusiasm gap in polls since the Democratic Convention, comparing registered voters, likely voters, and enthusiasm gap across multiple pollsters.

Tables 2012-09-22

Enthusiasm Gap in Polls Since Democratic Convention

From Sept. 22: Little Agreement Among Pollsters on ‘Enthusiasm Gap’ by Nate Silver

Bar chart showing Nebraska margin of victory for Democratic and Republican candidates in past presidential elections from 1972 to 2008.

Charts 2012-09-23

Nebraska Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections

From Nebraska G.O.P. Draws a Tougher Map for Obama by Micah Cohen

Two maps of Nebraska showing the 2008 presidential vote: county margins by Obama vs McCain support, and county voter turnout with circles sized by share of 2008 voters.

Maps 2012-09-23

The 2008 Vote in Nebraska: County Margins and Turnout

From Nebraska G.O.P. Draws a Tougher Map for Obama by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates for Nebraska and the United States from 2009 to 2012, showing Nebraska consistently lower than the national rate.

Charts 2012-09-23

Unemployment Rate, Nebraska vs. United States

From Nebraska G.O.P. Draws a Tougher Map for Obama by Micah Cohen

2012 US Electoral College map showing states colored blue for Obama with 269 electoral votes and red for Republican with 269 electoral votes, user-generated on 270toWin.

Maps 2012-09-23

2012 User-Generated Electoral College Map

From Sept. 23: Does Omaha Matter? by Nate Silver

2012 US Electoral College map showing a 269-269 tie between Obama and Romney, with states colored blue for Democrat and red for Republican, displaying electoral votes per state.

Maps 2012-09-23

2012 User-Generated Electoral College Map – 269-269 Tie

From Sept. 23: Does Omaha Matter? by Nate Silver

2012 US electoral college map showing Obama with 269 electoral votes in blue and Republican with 269 in red, with state-by-state vote counts displayed.

Maps 2012-09-23

2012 User-Generated Electoral College Map – 270toWin

From Sept. 23: Does Omaha Matter? by Nate Silver

Table showing challenging party candidate poll standings in late September from 1952 to 1972, with Electoral College results color-coded as won or lost.

Tables 2012-09-24

Challenging Party Candidate Poll Standing, Late September

From The Statistical State of the Presidential Race by Nate Silver

Table showing incumbent party candidate poll standings in late September from 1964 to 2012, with their late September poll averages and Electoral College results.

Tables 2012-09-24

Incumbent Party Candidate Poll Standing, Late September

From The Statistical State of the Presidential Race by Nate Silver

Table comparing late September polls versus election results from 1936 to 2008, showing incumbent and challenger poll numbers alongside actual popular vote outcomes.

Tables 2012-09-24

Late September Polls vs. Election Results, 1936-2008

From The Statistical State of the Presidential Race by Nate Silver

Horizontal bar chart showing poll leader with 45 days to go, popular vote margin, and shift for US presidential elections from 1936 to 2012, with orange and purple bars.

Charts 2012-09-24

Poll Leader with 45 Days to Go: Popular Vote Margin and Shift, 1936–2012

From The Statistical State of the Presidential Race by Nate Silver

Dual bar chart comparing undecided and third-party vote share in late September polls versus absolute polling error for US presidential elections from 1936 to 2008.

Charts 2012-09-24

Undecided and Third-Party Vote vs. Absolute Error, Late September Polls 1936–2008

From The Statistical State of the Presidential Race by Nate Silver

Two maps of Washington State showing the 2008 presidential vote: county margins for Obama vs McCain on the left, and county voter turnout represented by sized circles on the right.

Maps 2012-09-25

The 2008 Vote in Washington: County Margins and County Turnout

From Washington State, Women’s Rights and Big Cities by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates in Washington state versus the United States from 2009 to 2012, showing both lines declining from a peak near 10%.

Charts 2012-09-25

Unemployment Rate, Washington vs. United States

From Washington State, Women’s Rights and Big Cities by Micah Cohen

Horizontal bar chart showing Washington state margin of victory compared to U.S. in past presidential elections, split by Democratic and Republican wins.

Charts 2012-09-25

Washington Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections

From Washington State, Women’s Rights and Big Cities by Micah Cohen

Table comparing 2008 McCain state results to 2012 weighted poll averages and shift for 18 Republican-leaning states.

Tables 2012-09-25

McCain States -- 2008 Results vs. 2012 Polls

From Sept. 24: Deep Red Polling Mystery by Nate Silver

2012 US Electoral College map showing Obama with 265 electoral votes in blue and Republican with 273 in red, with state-by-state electoral vote counts.

Maps 2012-09-26

2012 User-Generated Electoral College Map

From Sept. 25: Romney’s Narrow Path Without Ohio by Nate Silver

2012 US Electoral College map showing states colored blue for Obama Democrat, red for Republican, and tan for undecided, with electoral vote counts per state.

Maps 2012-09-26

2012 User-Generated Electoral College Map

From Sept. 25: Romney’s Narrow Path Without Ohio by Nate Silver

Table comparing national popular vote margins to Ohio results and Ohio's partisan lean from 1948 to 2008 presidential elections.

Tables 2012-09-26

Ohio vs. The Rest of the Country

From Sept. 25: Romney’s Narrow Path Without Ohio by Nate Silver

Table comparing 2008 election results vs Now-cast projections by state, showing shifts toward GOP or Obama, with swing states highlighted in yellow.

Tables 2012-09-27

2008 Results vs. Now-cast by State

From Sept. 26: Could 2012 Be Like 2008? by Nate Silver

Diverging bar chart showing Maryland margin of victory for Democrats vs Republicans in past presidential elections from 1972 to 2008.

Charts 2012-09-28

Maryland Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections

From Growth of Suburban D.C. Is Felt Politically in Maryland by Micah Cohen

Two maps of Maryland showing the 2008 presidential vote: county margins by Obama vs McCain color coding, and county turnout shown with proportional circles.

Maps 2012-09-28

The 2008 Vote in Maryland

From Growth of Suburban D.C. Is Felt Politically in Maryland by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates in Maryland versus the United States from 2009 to 2012, showing Maryland consistently below the national rate.

Charts 2012-09-28

Unemployment Rate, Maryland vs. United States

From Growth of Suburban D.C. Is Felt Politically in Maryland by Micah Cohen

Line chart showing popular vote now-cast for Obama and Romney from August 23 to September 26, with markers for RNC ends, DNC ends, Libya, and 47% tape events.

Charts 2012-09-28

Popular Vote "Now-cast" Obama vs Romney

From Sept. 27: The Impact of the ‘47 Percent’ by Nate Silver

Table showing polling bias in US presidential races from 1972 to 2008, comparing poll averages to actual results with calculated bias for each election year.

Tables 2012-09-30

Polling Bias, Presidential Race, National Polls

From Poll Averages Have No History of Consistent Partisan Bias by Nate Silver

Table showing polling bias in presidential race state polls from 1972 to 2008, comparing poll averages to actual results with average and median bias columns.

Tables 2012-09-30

Polling Bias, Presidential Race, State Polls

From Poll Averages Have No History of Consistent Partisan Bias by Nate Silver

Table showing polling bias in Senate races from 1990 to 2010, comparing poll averages to actual results with average and median bias columns.

Tables 2012-09-30

Polling Bias, Senate Races

From Poll Averages Have No History of Consistent Partisan Bias by Nate Silver

Horizontal bar chart comparing Idaho vs U.S. margin of victory for the Republican party in past presidential elections from 1972 to 2008.

Charts 2012-09-30

Idaho Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections

From Romney’s Faith May Help in Idaho, Where He Doesn’t Need It by Micah Cohen

Two maps of Idaho showing the 2008 presidential vote by county: left map shows Obama vs McCain margins by color, right map shows county voter turnout as sized circles.

Maps 2012-09-30

The 2008 Vote in Idaho: County Margins and County Turnout

From Romney’s Faith May Help in Idaho, Where He Doesn’t Need It by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates in Idaho versus the United States from 2009 to 2012, showing both rates declining after peaking around 2010.

Charts 2012-09-30

Unemployment Rate, Idaho vs. United States

From Romney’s Faith May Help in Idaho, Where He Doesn’t Need It by Micah Cohen