Charts 2012-09-01 Challenging Party Convention -- TV Ratings and Polling 'Bounce' From Aug. 31: TV Ratings May Be Leading Indicator of Convention Bounce by Nate Silver
Charts 2012-09-03 Projected Combined Convention Bounce From Sept. 2: Split Verdict in Polls on Romney Convention Bounce by Nate Silver
Charts 2012-09-04 All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS) 2008–2013 From In Looking Back Four Years, Voters Have Short Memories by Nate Silver
Charts 2012-09-04 All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS) 2009–2013 From In Looking Back Four Years, Voters Have Short Memories by Nate Silver
Charts 2012-09-04 All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS) 2009–2013 From In Looking Back Four Years, Voters Have Short Memories by Nate Silver
Charts 2012-09-04 All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS) Vintage 1984-11-02 From In Looking Back Four Years, Voters Have Short Memories by Nate Silver
Charts 2012-09-04 All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS) Vintage 2004-10-08 From In Looking Back Four Years, Voters Have Short Memories by Nate Silver
Charts 2012-09-04 All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS) Vintage: 1980-10-03 From In Looking Back Four Years, Voters Have Short Memories by Nate Silver
Charts 2012-09-04 All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS) Vintage: 1992-10-02 From In Looking Back Four Years, Voters Have Short Memories by Nate Silver
Charts 2012-09-04 All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS) Vintage: 2012-09-03 From In Looking Back Four Years, Voters Have Short Memories by Nate Silver
Charts 2012-09-04 Polling Volatility Before Conventions vs. Out-Party Convention Bounce From Sept. 3: Par or Bogey? by Nate Silver
Tables 2012-09-04 R.N.C. Convention Bounce -- Change from Long-Term Average From Sept. 3: Par or Bogey? by Nate Silver
Tables 2012-09-04 R.N.C. Convention Bounce -- Change from Prior Poll From Sept. 3: Par or Bogey? by Nate Silver
Charts 2012-09-04 North Carolina Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections From In North Carolina, Obama’s 2008 Victory Was Ahead of Schedule by Micah Cohen
Maps 2012-09-04 The 2008 Vote in North Carolina: County-Level Margins and Turnout From In North Carolina, Obama’s 2008 Victory Was Ahead of Schedule by Micah Cohen
Charts 2012-09-04 Unemployment Rate, North Carolina vs. United States From In North Carolina, Obama’s 2008 Victory Was Ahead of Schedule by Micah Cohen
Tables 2012-09-05 Polling Around Party Conventions From Sept. 4: The Simple Case for Why Obama Is the Favorite by Nate Silver
Charts 2012-09-05 Projected Combined Convention Bounce From Sept. 4: The Simple Case for Why Obama Is the Favorite by Nate Silver
Charts 2012-09-05 Projected Convention Bounces From Sept. 4: The Simple Case for Why Obama Is the Favorite by Nate Silver
Charts 2012-09-06 Projected Combined Convention Bounce From Sept. 5: Looking Ahead After Charlotte by Nate Silver
Tables 2012-09-06 FiveThirtyEight "Now-cast" Election Probabilities Table From Obama Would Be Big Favorite With ‘Fired Up’ Base by Nate Silver
Tables 2012-09-09 Implied Poll Results Since Clinton Speech by Pollster From Sept. 8: Conventions May Put Obama in Front-Runner’s Position by Nate Silver
Tables 2012-09-09 Polling Around Party Conventions From Sept. 8: Conventions May Put Obama in Front-Runner’s Position by Nate Silver
Maps 2012-09-09 County-Level Margins in 2008 — Texas From A Sense of Waiting for Godot for Texas Democrats by Micah Cohen
Maps 2012-09-09 County-Level Margins in 2008 — Texas From A Sense of Waiting for Godot for Texas Democrats by Micah Cohen
Charts 2012-09-09 Texas Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections From A Sense of Waiting for Godot for Texas Democrats by Micah Cohen
Charts 2012-09-09 Unemployment Rate, Texas vs. United States From A Sense of Waiting for Godot for Texas Democrats by Micah Cohen
Maps 2012-09-09 New Orleans 100-Mile and 350-Mile Radius Map From Why Weather Forecasters Are Role Models by Nate Silver
Charts 2012-09-10 Projected Combined Convention Bounce From Sept. 9: Call It as You See It by Nate Silver
Tables 2012-09-11 Polling Around Party Conventions From Sept. 10: Will Obama’s Bounce Hold? by Nate Silver
Maps 2012-09-12 2012 User-Generated Electoral College Map From Sept. 11: Florida a True Must-Win for Romney by Nate Silver
Tables 2012-09-12 Obama "Must-Win" States From Sept. 11: Florida a True Must-Win for Romney by Nate Silver
Tables 2012-09-12 Romney "Must-Win" States From Sept. 11: Florida a True Must-Win for Romney by Nate Silver
Charts 2012-09-12 Arkansas Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections From In Arkansas, the Lost Art of Splitting Tickets by Micah Cohen
Maps 2012-09-12 The 2008 Vote in Arkansas: County-Level Margins and Turnout From In Arkansas, the Lost Art of Splitting Tickets by Micah Cohen
Charts 2012-09-12 Unemployment Rate, Arkansas vs. United States From In Arkansas, the Lost Art of Splitting Tickets by Micah Cohen
Tables 2012-09-13 Likely Voter vs. Registered Voter Results since Democratic Convention From Sept. 12: Polls Since Conventions Point to Decline in ‘Enthusiasm Gap’ by Nate Silver
Tables 2012-09-13 Registered Voter vs. Likely Voter Polls: Average Error Before and After Sept. 1 From Sept. 12: Polls Since Conventions Point to Decline in ‘Enthusiasm Gap’ by Nate Silver
Tables 2012-09-13 Registered Voter vs. Likely Voter Polls: Average Result From Sept. 12: Polls Since Conventions Point to Decline in ‘Enthusiasm Gap’ by Nate Silver
Charts 2012-09-14 Projected Combined Convention Bounce From Sept. 13: After Convention Bounce, Holding Obama’s Polls to a Higher Standard by Nate Silver
Charts 2012-09-16 Connecticut Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections From In Connecticut, Wall Street Community May Limit Obama Victory by Micah Cohen
Maps 2012-09-16 The 2008 Vote in Connecticut: County-Level Margins and Turnout From In Connecticut, Wall Street Community May Limit Obama Victory by Micah Cohen
Charts 2012-09-16 Unemployment Rate, Connecticut vs. United States From In Connecticut, Wall Street Community May Limit Obama Victory by Micah Cohen
Charts 2012-09-17 Projected Combined Convention Bounce From Sept. 16: Watching the Clock and Awaiting the Unknown by Nate Silver
Tables 2012-09-18 Electoral College Win Probability by Popular Vote Result From Sept. 17: Electoral College May Not Help Obama by Nate Silver
Charts 2012-09-19 Kansas Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections From The End of a Kansas Tradition: Moderation by Micah Cohen
Maps 2012-09-19 The 2008 Vote in Kansas: County-Level Margins and Turnout From The End of a Kansas Tradition: Moderation by Micah Cohen
Charts 2012-09-19 Unemployment Rate, Kansas vs. United States From The End of a Kansas Tradition: Moderation by Micah Cohen
Tables 2012-09-19 State Obama Win Probabilities and Popular Vote Margin: Cellphone Poll Comparison From Obama’s Lead Looks Stronger in Polls That Include Cellphones by Nate Silver
Tables 2012-09-20 Polls That Include Cellphones Since Party Conventions From Sept. 19: A Wild Day in the Polls, but Obama Ends Up Ahead by Nate Silver
Charts 2012-09-21 National Tracking Polls by Release Date From Sept. 20: Obama’s Convention Bounce May Not Be Receding by Nate Silver
Charts 2012-09-21 Obama Lead or Deficit in Polls Since Democratic Convention From Sept. 20: Obama’s Convention Bounce May Not Be Receding by Nate Silver
Tables 2012-09-22 Change in Swing State Forecasts Since Aug. 28 From Sept. 21: Presidential Race Changes, but Swing States Stay the Same by Nate Silver
Tables 2012-09-22 Enthusiasm Gap in Polls Since Democratic Convention From Sept. 22: Little Agreement Among Pollsters on ‘Enthusiasm Gap’ by Nate Silver
Charts 2012-09-23 Nebraska Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections From Nebraska G.O.P. Draws a Tougher Map for Obama by Micah Cohen
Maps 2012-09-23 The 2008 Vote in Nebraska: County Margins and Turnout From Nebraska G.O.P. Draws a Tougher Map for Obama by Micah Cohen
Charts 2012-09-23 Unemployment Rate, Nebraska vs. United States From Nebraska G.O.P. Draws a Tougher Map for Obama by Micah Cohen
Maps 2012-09-23 2012 User-Generated Electoral College Map From Sept. 23: Does Omaha Matter? by Nate Silver
Maps 2012-09-23 2012 User-Generated Electoral College Map – 269-269 Tie From Sept. 23: Does Omaha Matter? by Nate Silver
Maps 2012-09-23 2012 User-Generated Electoral College Map – 270toWin From Sept. 23: Does Omaha Matter? by Nate Silver
Tables 2012-09-24 Challenging Party Candidate Poll Standing, Late September From The Statistical State of the Presidential Race by Nate Silver
Tables 2012-09-24 Incumbent Party Candidate Poll Standing, Late September From The Statistical State of the Presidential Race by Nate Silver
Tables 2012-09-24 Late September Polls vs. Election Results, 1936-2008 From The Statistical State of the Presidential Race by Nate Silver
Charts 2012-09-24 Poll Leader with 45 Days to Go: Popular Vote Margin and Shift, 1936–2012 From The Statistical State of the Presidential Race by Nate Silver
Charts 2012-09-24 Undecided and Third-Party Vote vs. Absolute Error, Late September Polls 1936–2008 From The Statistical State of the Presidential Race by Nate Silver
Maps 2012-09-25 The 2008 Vote in Washington: County Margins and County Turnout From Washington State, Women’s Rights and Big Cities by Micah Cohen
Charts 2012-09-25 Unemployment Rate, Washington vs. United States From Washington State, Women’s Rights and Big Cities by Micah Cohen
Charts 2012-09-25 Washington Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections From Washington State, Women’s Rights and Big Cities by Micah Cohen
Tables 2012-09-25 McCain States -- 2008 Results vs. 2012 Polls From Sept. 24: Deep Red Polling Mystery by Nate Silver
Maps 2012-09-26 2012 User-Generated Electoral College Map From Sept. 25: Romney’s Narrow Path Without Ohio by Nate Silver
Maps 2012-09-26 2012 User-Generated Electoral College Map From Sept. 25: Romney’s Narrow Path Without Ohio by Nate Silver
Tables 2012-09-26 Ohio vs. The Rest of the Country From Sept. 25: Romney’s Narrow Path Without Ohio by Nate Silver
Tables 2012-09-27 2008 Results vs. Now-cast by State From Sept. 26: Could 2012 Be Like 2008? by Nate Silver
Charts 2012-09-28 Maryland Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections From Growth of Suburban D.C. Is Felt Politically in Maryland by Micah Cohen
Maps 2012-09-28 The 2008 Vote in Maryland From Growth of Suburban D.C. Is Felt Politically in Maryland by Micah Cohen
Charts 2012-09-28 Unemployment Rate, Maryland vs. United States From Growth of Suburban D.C. Is Felt Politically in Maryland by Micah Cohen
Charts 2012-09-28 Popular Vote "Now-cast" Obama vs Romney From Sept. 27: The Impact of the ‘47 Percent’ by Nate Silver
Tables 2012-09-30 Polling Bias, Presidential Race, National Polls From Poll Averages Have No History of Consistent Partisan Bias by Nate Silver
Tables 2012-09-30 Polling Bias, Presidential Race, State Polls From Poll Averages Have No History of Consistent Partisan Bias by Nate Silver
Tables 2012-09-30 Polling Bias, Senate Races From Poll Averages Have No History of Consistent Partisan Bias by Nate Silver
Charts 2012-09-30 Idaho Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections From Romney’s Faith May Help in Idaho, Where He Doesn’t Need It by Micah Cohen
Maps 2012-09-30 The 2008 Vote in Idaho: County Margins and County Turnout From Romney’s Faith May Help in Idaho, Where He Doesn’t Need It by Micah Cohen
Charts 2012-09-30 Unemployment Rate, Idaho vs. United States From Romney’s Faith May Help in Idaho, Where He Doesn’t Need It by Micah Cohen