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August 2012 graphics

71 matches

Table comparing real personal income annualized growth rates as previously reported versus revised figures by quarter from 1Q 2009 to 2Q 2012.

Tables 2012-08-01

Real Personal Income, Annualized Growth Rates

From July 31: Obama Forecast Improves on Data Showing Faster Income Growth by Nate Silver

Table comparing Obama vs Romney polling data for tipping point, peripheral, and noncompetitive states on June 7 and August 1, showing margins and win probabilities.

Tables 2012-08-02

2012 Election State Polling Comparison: June 7 vs August 1

From Aug. 1: Obama Extends Electoral College Advantage by Nate Silver

Horizontal bar chart showing Hawaii margin of victory in past presidential elections from 1972 to 2008, comparing U.S. and Hawaii results.

Charts 2012-08-02

Hawaii Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections

From In Blue Hawaii, Senate Race Offers a Bit of Suspense by Micah Cohen

Two maps of Hawaii showing the 2008 presidential vote: county-level margins for Obama vs McCain on the left, and voter turnout by county with proportional circles on the right.

Maps 2012-08-02

The 2008 Vote in Hawaii: County-Level Margins and Turnout by County

From In Blue Hawaii, Senate Race Offers a Bit of Suspense by Micah Cohen

Line chart showing Obama's lead over Romney in the FiveThirtyEight Now-cast from May 31 to August 2, with values ranging roughly between 1 and 3 percentage points.

Charts 2012-08-03

Obama Lead Over Romney -- 538 "Now-cast"

From Aug. 2: When a Poll That Seems Like News Isn’t by Nate Silver

Line chart showing Obama's forecasted lead over Romney from May 31 to August 2, fluctuating between roughly 1.6 and 2.7 percentage points.

Charts 2012-08-03

Obama Lead Over Romney -- 538 Forecast

From Aug. 2: When a Poll That Seems Like News Isn’t by Nate Silver

Line chart showing Obama's polling lead over Romney based on the RCP average from May 31 to August 2, with values ranging roughly between 0.5 and 4 points.

Charts 2012-08-03

Obama Lead Over Romney -- RCP Average

From Aug. 2: When a Poll That Seems Like News Isn’t by Nate Silver

Table comparing monthly poll counts for 2008 Obama vs. McCain and 2012 Obama vs. Romney elections, with subtotals through July 31.

Tables 2012-08-07

2008 vs. 2012 Presidential Race Poll Counts by Month

From Aug. 6: Pace of Presidential Polling Has Slowed Considerably From 2008 by Nate Silver

Table showing estimates of Obama and Romney win probabilities from prediction markets and sportsbooks as of midnight August 7 2012 with raw and adjusted odds.

Tables 2012-08-07

Estimates of Obama and Romney Win Probabilities

From Models, Models, Everywhere by Nate Silver

Table showing estimates of Obama and Romney win probabilities from various statistical models as of midnight August 7 2012 with an average of 61.4% Obama and 38.6% Romney

Tables 2012-08-07

Estimates of Obama and Romney Win Probabilities

From Models, Models, Everywhere by Nate Silver

Table showing additional Electoral College wins out of 50,000 simulations for various VP candidates, with columns for state, net impact on state popular vote, additional state wins, state win percentage increase, additional Electoral College wins, and Electoral College win increase.

Tables 2012-08-08

Additional Electoral College Wins (Out of 50,000 Simulations)

From How Romney’s Pick of a Running Mate Could Sway the Outcome by Nate Silver

Table showing additional home state wins out of 50,000 simulations for various VP candidates, including net impact on state popular vote, additional state wins, state win percentage increase, state electoral votes, and electoral votes gained.

Tables 2012-08-08

Additional Home State Wins (Out of 50,000 Simulations)

From How Romney’s Pick of a Running Mate Could Sway the Outcome by Nate Silver

Horizontal bar chart showing home state favorability and approval ratings for Republican politicians, with positive ratings in blue and negative in red.

Charts 2012-08-08

Home State Favorability / Approval Ratings

From How Romney’s Pick of a Running Mate Could Sway the Outcome by Nate Silver

Table ranking VP candidates by net positive rating with home-state voters and estimated net impact on state popular vote for Romney.

Tables 2012-08-08

VP Candidates: Net Positive Rating and Impact on State Popular Vote

From How Romney’s Pick of a Running Mate Could Sway the Outcome by Nate Silver

Table showing additional Electoral College wins out of 50,000 simulations for various VP candidates, with columns for state, net impact on state popular vote, additional state wins, state win percentage increase, and electoral college wins.

Tables 2012-08-11

Additional Electoral College Wins (Out of 50,000 Simulations)

From A Risky Rationale Behind Romney’s Choice of Ryan by Nate Silver

Horizontal bar chart showing DW-Nominate ideology scores for US vice presidential candidates, ranging from Ryan at +0.562 to Garner at -0.482, with Republicans in red and Democrats in blue.

Charts 2012-08-11

DW-Nominate (Ideology) Scores for Vice Presidential Candidates

From A Risky Rationale Behind Romney’s Choice of Ryan by Nate Silver

Actuarial odds calculation showing Paul Ryan's chances of becoming 45th President via two scenarios, with probabilities multiplied to reach a combined 4.5% chance.

Other 2012-08-13

Actuarial Odds of Paul Ryan Becoming 45th President

From What Are Paul Ryan’s Chances of Becoming President? by Nate Silver

Table showing fate of vice-presidential nominees on losing tickets, listing year, candidate, popular vote margin, and whether they later ran for president, won party nomination, or became president.

Tables 2012-08-13

Fate of Vice-Presidential Nominees on Losing Tickets

From What Are Paul Ryan’s Chances of Becoming President? by Nate Silver

Table showing the fate of vice-presidential nominees on winning tickets, listing year, candidate, popular vote margin, and whether they later ran for president, won the party nomination, or were elected president.

Tables 2012-08-13

Fate of Vice-Presidential Nominees on Winning Tickets

From What Are Paul Ryan’s Chances of Becoming President? by Nate Silver

Line chart showing Paul Ryan's chances of running for president, winning the GOP nomination, and being elected president based on Romney/Ryan 2012 margin of victory or defeat.

Charts 2012-08-13

Paul Ryan's Chances Of...

From What Are Paul Ryan’s Chances of Becoming President? by Nate Silver

Two maps of Wisconsin showing the 2008 presidential vote: county-level margins for Obama vs McCain on the left, and voter turnout by county on the right.

Maps 2012-08-13

The 2008 Vote in Wisconsin: County-Level Margins and Turnout

From Could Ryan Tip Wisconsin Toward Romney? by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates in Wisconsin versus the United States from January 2009 to early 2012, showing both declining over time.

Charts 2012-08-13

Unemployment Rate, Wisconsin vs. United States

From Could Ryan Tip Wisconsin Toward Romney? by Micah Cohen

Bar chart showing Wisconsin margin of victory in past presidential elections, comparing Democratic and Republican results from 1972 to 2008.

Charts 2012-08-13

Wisconsin Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections

From Could Ryan Tip Wisconsin Toward Romney? by Micah Cohen

Gallup poll table showing voter ratings of vice presidential picks from 1988 to 2008, with columns for Excellent/Pretty good, Only fair/Poor, and No opinion percentages.

Tables 2012-08-14

How would you rate John McCain's choice of Sarah Palin for vice president?

From Aug. 13: Polls Have Middling Reviews for Ryan by Nate Silver

Table of Vice-Presidential Candidate Favorability Ratings from PollingReport.com showing Before Announcement, Post-Announcement, and Oct./Nov. ratings for candidates 2000-2012.

Tables 2012-08-14

Vice-Presidential Candidate Favorability Ratings

From Aug. 13: Polls Have Middling Reviews for Ryan by Nate Silver

Table showing Vice-Presidential Candidate Favorability Ratings from CBS News Polls, comparing first poll after announcement and last poll before election for candidates 1980-2008.

Tables 2012-08-14

Vice-Presidential Candidate Favorability Ratings

From Aug. 13: Polls Have Middling Reviews for Ryan by Nate Silver

Table showing the polling point change from naming a vice-presidential pick for elections 1984 to 2008, with median values highlighted.

Tables 2012-08-15

Naming Vice-President Effect

From Aug. 14: The Fog of Polling — and Ryan’s ‘Bounce’ So Far by Nate Silver

Senate race ratings table showing Democratic, Independent, and GOP win probabilities by state, grouped from Safe Democrat to Safe Republican, with polling margins and changes.

Tables 2012-08-15

Senate Race Ratings by State: Safe Democrat to Safe Republican

From In Senate Races, Politics Are Local Again by Nate Silver

Table showing change in polls since the announcement of Paul D. Ryan as VP pick, comparing last poll before and after announcement by pollster and state.

Tables 2012-08-16

Change in Polls Since Announcement of Paul D. Ryan

From Aug. 15: To Bounce, or Not to Bounce by Nate Silver

Line chart of the Industrial Production Index (INDPRO) from 1948 to 2018, indexed to 2007=100, with shaded areas indicating US recessions, sourced from the Federal Reserve.

Charts 2012-08-16

Industrial Production Index (INDPRO) 1948–2018

From Aug. 15: To Bounce, or Not to Bounce by Nate Silver

Diverging bar charts showing Democratic vs Republican margin of victory in past presidential elections for Oregon and Wisconsin from 1972 to 2008.

Charts 2012-08-16

Margin of Victory in Past Presidential Elections: Oregon and Wisconsin

From Oregon, Sitting at the Border of Safe and In Play by Micah Cohen

Line chart showing Democratic and Republican presidential vote share in Multnomah County, Oregon from 1980 to 2008, with Democrats rising to ~78% and Republicans falling to ~21%.

Charts 2012-08-16

Presidential Vote in Multnomah County, Ore.

From Oregon, Sitting at the Border of Safe and In Play by Micah Cohen

Two maps of Oregon showing the 2008 presidential vote: county-level margins for Obama vs McCain on the left, and voter turnout by county represented by sized circles on the right.

Maps 2012-08-16

The 2008 Vote in Oregon: County-Level Margins and Turnout by County

From Oregon, Sitting at the Border of Safe and In Play by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates in Oregon versus the United States from January 2009 to January 2012, showing Oregon consistently higher.

Charts 2012-08-16

Unemployment Rate, Oregon vs. United States

From Oregon, Sitting at the Border of Safe and In Play by Micah Cohen

Table showing change in polls since the announcement of Paul D. Ryan as VP pick, comparing pre- and post-announcement poll results by pollster and state.

Tables 2012-08-17

Change in Polls Since Announcement of Paul D. Ryan

From Aug. 16: Why I’m Not Buying the Romney Rally by Nate Silver

Scatter plot comparing forecasted vs actual GDP change over next 2 quarters, with regression line showing R-squared of 0.2818.

Charts 2012-08-18

Forecasted and Actual G.D.P. Change

From Aug. 17: Does a Bullish Stock Market Predict a Faster Recovery? by Nate Silver

Scatter plot showing forecasted and actual GDP change versus S&P 500 change over prior 6 months, with a trend line and R-squared value of 0.1343.

Charts 2012-08-18

Forecasted and Actual G.D.P. Change

From Aug. 17: Does a Bullish Stock Market Predict a Faster Recovery? by Nate Silver

Table showing years when markets were bullish but economists bearish, comparing S&P 500 changes, forecasted GDP growth, and actual GDP growth over next two quarters.

Tables 2012-08-18

Markets Bullish, Economists Bearish

From Aug. 17: Does a Bullish Stock Market Predict a Faster Recovery? by Nate Silver

Stata regression output table showing OLS results for actual_gdp regressed on sp500_change and forecast_gdp with 173 observations.

Charts 2012-08-18

Stata OLS Regression: actual_gdp on sp500_change and forecast_gdp

From Aug. 17: Does a Bullish Stock Market Predict a Faster Recovery? by Nate Silver

Bar chart showing South Carolina margin of victory in past presidential elections, comparing Democratic and Republican results from 1980 to 2008.

Charts 2012-08-18

South Carolina Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections

From In Inelastic South Carolina, Change Is Unlikely by Micah Cohen

Two maps of South Carolina showing the 2008 presidential vote: county-level margins for Obama vs McCain on the left, and voter turnout by county shown as sized circles on the right.

Maps 2012-08-18

The 2008 Vote in South Carolina: County-Level Margins and Turnout

From In Inelastic South Carolina, Change Is Unlikely by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates in South Carolina versus the United States from January 2009 to January 2012, showing SC consistently higher than the US average.

Charts 2012-08-18

Unemployment Rate, South Carolina vs. United States

From In Inelastic South Carolina, Change Is Unlikely by Micah Cohen

Horizontal bar chart showing Missouri margin of victory in past presidential elections from 1972 to 2008, comparing Democratic and Republican results.

Charts 2012-08-21

Missouri Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections

From In Missouri’s Move to the Right, a Question of How Far by Micah Cohen

Two maps of Missouri showing the 2008 presidential vote: county-level margins between Obama and McCain on the left, and voter turnout by county with proportional circles on the right.

Maps 2012-08-21

The 2008 Vote in Missouri: County-Level Margins and Turnout by County

From In Missouri’s Move to the Right, a Question of How Far by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates in Missouri vs. the United States from January 2009 to January 2012, showing both declining from near 10%.

Charts 2012-08-21

Unemployment Rate, Missouri vs. United States

From In Missouri’s Move to the Right, a Question of How Far by Micah Cohen

Table showing polls since Aug. 1 in top 10 tipping point states, listing Obama leads, Romney leads, and exact ties for each state.

Tables 2012-08-22

Polls Since Aug. 1 in Top 10 "Tipping Point" States

From Aug. 21: Romney Showing Improved Results in Swing State Polls by Nate Silver

Table showing Missouri Senate poll results since Akin remarks, broken down by Rasmussen Reports, Public Policy Polling, and Combined, across party affiliations.

Tables 2012-08-24

Missouri Senate Polls Since Akin Remarks

From Republican Voters Could Sit Out Missouri Senate Race by Nate Silver

Horizontal bar chart showing South Dakota margin of victory in past presidential elections, comparing Democratic and Republican wins from 1972 to 2008.

Charts 2012-08-24

South Dakota Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections

From In South Dakota, Only the Farm Trumps Conservatism by Micah Cohen

Two maps of South Dakota showing 2008 presidential vote margins by county and voter turnout by county with proportional circles.

Maps 2012-08-24

The 2008 Vote in South Dakota: County-Level Margins and Turnout

From In South Dakota, Only the Farm Trumps Conservatism by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates in South Dakota versus the United States from January 2009 to January 2012, showing the US rate higher than South Dakota throughout.

Charts 2012-08-24

Unemployment Rate, South Dakota vs. United States

From In South Dakota, Only the Farm Trumps Conservatism by Micah Cohen

Table of Michigan polls since May 1 showing results from national polling firms and Michigan-only pollsters with averages and medians.

Tables 2012-08-28

Michigan Polls Since 5/1

From Aug. 27: Michigan Isn’t a Tossup by Nate Silver

US electoral map for 2012 showing state-by-state electoral votes with Obama (D) at 265 and Republican (R) at 273, colored blue and red respectively.

Maps 2012-08-29

2012 User-Generated Electoral Map – 270toWin

From Aug. 28: A Moment of Polling Clarity by Nate Silver

Table of recent national polls showing pollster, sample type, and result, with most showing Obama leading by 1-6 points and two showing Romney +1.

Tables 2012-08-29

Recent National Polls – Obama vs Romney

From Aug. 28: A Moment of Polling Clarity by Nate Silver

Choropleth map of Florida showing county-level margins of victory in the 2008 presidential election, with blue for Obama and red for McCain.

Maps 2012-08-29

County-Level Margins Of Victory in 2008 — Florida

From In Florida, Tampa Is Essential to Romney Election Hopes by Micah Cohen

Bar chart showing Florida margin of victory compared to U.S. margin in past presidential elections from 1976 to 2008, split by Democratic and Republican wins.

Charts 2012-08-29

Florida Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections

From In Florida, Tampa Is Essential to Romney Election Hopes by Micah Cohen

Bubble map of Florida showing presidential voter turnout by county in 2008, with circles sized by share of voters and percentages labeled for major cities.

Maps 2012-08-29

Presidential Turnout In Florida in 2008

From In Florida, Tampa Is Essential to Romney Election Hopes by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates in Florida versus the United States from January 2009 to January 2012, showing Florida consistently higher.

Charts 2012-08-29

Unemployment Rate, Florida vs. United States

From In Florida, Tampa Is Essential to Romney Election Hopes by Micah Cohen

Table showing poll bias vs. actual results across five time windows relative to party conventions, for presidential elections 1968-2008, with averages and medians.

Tables 2012-08-30

Poll Bias vs. Actual Results

From Measuring a Convention Bounce by Nate Silver

Table showing average poll results around party conventions from 1968 to 2008, comparing incumbent vs challenger leads at five time points versus actual election results.

Tables 2012-08-30

Polling Around Party Conventions

From Measuring a Convention Bounce by Nate Silver

Table and scatter plot showing polling volatility before conventions versus out-party convention bounce from 1968 to 2012, with a linear regression line.

Charts 2012-08-30

Polling Volatility Before Conventions vs. Out-Party Convention Bounce

From Measuring a Convention Bounce by Nate Silver

Line chart showing the projected combined convention bounce from late August through September 30, with Romney leading early then Obama taking the lead after his convention.

Charts 2012-08-30

Projected Combined Convention Bounce

From Measuring a Convention Bounce by Nate Silver

Line chart showing projected convention bounces for Romney and Obama from late August through September 30, with Obama peaking around +4 and Romney dipping to about -4.

Charts 2012-08-30

Projected Convention Bounces

From Measuring a Convention Bounce by Nate Silver

Stata regression output table showing results of regressing 'result' on 'pre_conv' and 'post_bounce' with 11 observations, R-squared 0.5757.

Charts 2012-08-30

Stata OLS Regression Output: result on pre_conv and post_bounce

From Measuring a Convention Bounce by Nate Silver

Exit poll data tables for 2004 and 2008 US presidential elections showing share of electorate, candidate vote percentages, and partisan edge by racial group.

Tables 2012-08-30

2004 and 2008 Exit Polls by Race: Kerry/Bush and Obama/McCain

From Base Turnout Strategy May Be Too Narrow for Romney by Nate Silver

Table showing Hypothetical #1 election scenario with share of electorate and Democrat vs Republican vote margins by racial group.

Tables 2012-08-30

Hypothetical #1 Election Scenario by Race

From Base Turnout Strategy May Be Too Narrow for Romney by Nate Silver

Table showing Hypothetical #2 election scenario with share of electorate, Democrat and Republican vote shares, and edge by racial group.

Tables 2012-08-30

Hypothetical #2 Election Scenario by Race

From Base Turnout Strategy May Be Too Narrow for Romney by Nate Silver

Table showing Hypothetical #3 election scenario with share of electorate and Democrat vs Republican vote margins by racial group.

Tables 2012-08-30

Hypothetical #3 Election Scenario by Race

From Base Turnout Strategy May Be Too Narrow for Romney by Nate Silver

Word cloud featuring terms from political speeches, with America, Americans, President, better, world, and jobs among the largest words.

Other 2012-08-31

Political Speech Word Cloud

From In Prudent Speech, Romney Seeks Role as Generic Republican by Nate Silver

Bar chart comparing Democratic vs Republican margins of victory in Delaware presidential elections from 1972 to 2008.

Charts 2012-08-31

Delaware Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections

From Delaware: A Small Example of a Larger Trend by Micah Cohen

Two maps of Delaware showing the 2008 presidential vote: county-level margins for Obama vs McCain on the left, and voter turnout by county with proportional circles on the right.

Maps 2012-08-31

The 2008 Vote in Delaware: County-Level Margins and Turnout by County

From Delaware: A Small Example of a Larger Trend by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates in Delaware vs. the United States from January 2009 to January 2012, showing both lines declining from peaks around 2010.

Charts 2012-08-31

Unemployment Rate, Delaware vs. United States

From Delaware: A Small Example of a Larger Trend by Micah Cohen