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July 2012 graphics

45 matches

Two maps of West Virginia showing 2008 election turnout by county and county margins by district, with a table of district demographics below.

Maps 2012-07-03

The 2008 Election in West Virginia

From In West Virginia, Coal Means More, Party Less by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates in West Virginia versus the United States from January 2009 to early 2012, showing both rates converging near 7-8%.

Charts 2012-07-03

Unemployment Rate, West Virginia vs. United States

From In West Virginia, Coal Means More, Party Less by Micah Cohen

Horizontal bar chart showing West Virginia margin of victory in past presidential elections from 1980 to 2008, comparing U.S. and W.V. results.

Charts 2012-07-03

West Virginia Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections

From In West Virginia, Coal Means More, Party Less by Micah Cohen

Bar chart showing District of Columbia margin of victory in past presidential elections from 1980 to 2008, plus a table of house characteristics for the At-Large District.

Charts 2012-07-04

District of Columbia Margin of Victory in Past Presidential Elections

From District of Columbia’s Demographics Change, but Democratic Voting Doesn’t by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates in Washington D.C. versus the United States from January 2009 to January 2012.

Charts 2012-07-04

Unemployment Rate, D.C. vs. United States

From District of Columbia’s Demographics Change, but Democratic Voting Doesn’t by Micah Cohen

Table showing comparison periods in months with current data date ranges and corresponding comparison periods used to calculate growth rate, for periods 1 through 12 months.

Tables 2012-07-05

Comparison Period Months: Current Data vs. Growth Rate Calculation Period

From Measuring the Effect of the Economy on Elections by Nate Silver

Table showing economic variables with normalized values and weights, including jobs, income, consumption, production, inflation, GDP forecast, stock market, and a composite index of 2.5%.

Tables 2012-07-05

Economic Variables Normalized Value and Weight Table

From Measuring the Effect of the Economy on Elections by Nate Silver

FiveThirtyEight Economic Composite Index from 1968 to 2008, showing color-coded values at various days until election intervals.

Tables 2012-07-05

FiveThirtyEight Economic Composite Index, 1968-2008

From Measuring the Effect of the Economy on Elections by Nate Silver

Stata regression output table showing linear regression results for inc_margin with coefficients, standard errors, t-statistics, and confidence intervals.

Charts 2012-07-05

Linear Regression Output: inc_margin on Jobs, Income, and Other Variables

From Measuring the Effect of the Economy on Elections by Nate Silver

Line chart showing US real personal income in millions of dollars from January 2004 to December 2005, with a notable spike in December 2004.

Charts 2012-07-05

Real Personal Income ($M), 2004-2005

From Measuring the Effect of the Economy on Elections by Nate Silver

Two maps of Utah showing 2008 election county margins by party and voter turnout by county, plus a table of district demographics including partisan voting index, median income, and urban-rural split.

Maps 2012-07-09

The 2008 Election in Utah

From Utah: Very Republican, but Not Quite as Conservative as It Appears by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates for Utah and the United States from January 2009 to January 2012, showing Utah consistently below the national rate.

Charts 2012-07-09

Unemployment Rate, Utah vs. United States

From Utah: Very Republican, but Not Quite as Conservative as It Appears by Micah Cohen

Horizontal bar chart comparing U.S. and Utah margins of victory in past presidential elections from 1980 to 2008.

Charts 2012-07-09

Utah Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections

From Utah: Very Republican, but Not Quite as Conservative as It Appears by Micah Cohen

Horizontal bar chart showing Iowa margin of victory in past presidential elections from 1972 to 2008, comparing U.S. and Iowa results.

Charts 2012-07-11

Iowa Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections

From Iowa: Racially Homogeneous, but Politically Diverse by Micah Cohen

Iowa congressional districts infographic showing 2008 county-level margins map, 2012 registered voters bubble map, and a table of district metrics including party, partisan voting index, median income, and demographics.

Tables 2012-07-11

The Iowa Metrics

From Iowa: Racially Homogeneous, but Politically Diverse by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates in Iowa versus the United States from January 2009 to January 2012, showing Iowa consistently lower than the US average.

Charts 2012-07-11

Unemployment Rate, Iowa vs. United States

From Iowa: Racially Homogeneous, but Politically Diverse by Micah Cohen

Table comparing net approval ratings, favorability ratings, and election popular vote results for US presidents from 1980 to 2004.

Tables 2012-07-12

Approval Ratings, Favorability Ratings and Election Results

From Why Obama May Be Stronger Than His Approval Ratings by Nate Silver

Stata regression output table showing OLS results for netpopvote regressed on netapprove and netfav, with 5 observations.

Tables 2012-07-12

Stata OLS Regression Output: netpopvote on netapp and netfav

From Why Obama May Be Stronger Than His Approval Ratings by Nate Silver

Horizontal bar chart showing New Jersey margin of victory in past presidential elections from 1972 to 2008, comparing U.S. and N.J. results.

Charts 2012-07-14

New Jersey Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections

From In Blue New Jersey, Red Spots May Be Sign of the Past by Micah Cohen

Two maps of New Jersey showing registered voters by county as sized circles for 2012 and county-level Obama vs McCain margins in 2008.

Maps 2012-07-14

New Jersey's Political Landscape

From In Blue New Jersey, Red Spots May Be Sign of the Past by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates in New Jersey versus the United States from January 2009 to January 2012, showing NJ consistently higher than the US average.

Charts 2012-07-14

Unemployment Rate, New Jersey vs. United States

From In Blue New Jersey, Red Spots May Be Sign of the Past by Micah Cohen

Table showing estimated effect of voter ID law changes from 2008 to 2012, listing turnout change and popular vote shift by state.

Tables 2012-07-15

Estimated Effect of Voter ID Law Changes, 2008-2012

From Measuring the Effects of Voter Identification Laws by Nate Silver

Table showing estimated value of top 40 NBA point guards in millions of dollars by rank group across seasons 2007-08 through 2011-12 with averages.

Tables 2012-07-16

Estimated Value of Top 40 Point Guards ($ millions)

From Keeping Lin Should Make Financial Sense for the Knicks by Nate Silver

Horizontal bar chart comparing U.S. and Alaska margins of victory in past presidential elections from 1972 to 2008.

Charts 2012-07-18

Alaska Margin of Victory In Past Presidential Elections

From It’s Not Exactly Sarah Palin’s Alaska by Micah Cohen

Map of Alaska showing three main population centers with proportional circles: Anchorage 60%, Fairbanks 13%, and Juneau 11%.

Maps 2012-07-18

Alaska's Population Centers

From It’s Not Exactly Sarah Palin’s Alaska by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates for Alaska versus the United States from January 2009 to January 2012, showing U.S. rate higher than Alaska throughout.

Charts 2012-07-18

Unemployment Rate, Alaska vs. United States

From It’s Not Exactly Sarah Palin’s Alaska by Micah Cohen

Table comparing average polling error for registered voter vs. likely voter polls by election year from 1988 to 2008, with averages at bottom.

Tables 2012-07-19

Registered Voter vs. Likely Voter Polls: Average Error

From Does Romney Have an Edge From Likely Voter Polls? by Nate Silver

Two tables comparing average polling error for registered voter vs. likely voter polls before and after September 1, covering election years 1988 to 2008.

Tables 2012-07-19

Registered Voter vs. Likely Voter Polls: Average Error Before and After Sept. 1

From Does Romney Have an Edge From Likely Voter Polls? by Nate Silver

Table comparing registered voter vs. likely voter poll averages by election year from 1988 to 2008, showing net shift toward Republicans.

Tables 2012-07-19

Registered Voter vs. Likely Voter Polls: Average Result

From Does Romney Have an Edge From Likely Voter Polls? by Nate Silver

Combined bar chart and bubble map showing Minnesota presidential vote margins in past elections and county-level turnout and margins in 2008.

Charts 2012-07-20

The Presidential Vote in Minnesota

From Would Pawlenty Put Minnesota Within Romney’s Reach? by Micah Cohen

Line chart comparing unemployment rates in Minnesota versus the United States from January 2009 to January 2012, showing both declining over time.

Charts 2012-07-20

Unemployment Rate, Minnesota vs. United States

From Would Pawlenty Put Minnesota Within Romney’s Reach? by Micah Cohen

Table showing poll averages and actual results for incumbents and challengers from 1968-2008, with net gain vs. polls by month.

Tables 2012-07-22

Poll Average and Actual Results, 1968-2008

From Do Presidential Polls Break Toward Challengers? by Nate Silver

Table showing poll averages and actual results for incumbents and challengers from 1972-2004, with net gain vs. polls by month.

Tables 2012-07-22

Poll Average and Actual Results, 1972-2004, True Incumbents

From Do Presidential Polls Break Toward Challengers? by Nate Silver

Scatter plot with regression line showing September poll margin vs actual election results for incumbent party from 1972 to 2004, with a data table above.

Charts 2012-07-22

September Poll Margin vs. Actual Results

From Do Presidential Polls Break Toward Challengers? by Nate Silver

Scatter plot and data table comparing September poll margins versus actual election results for the incumbent party from 1968 to 2008, with a regression line showing R-squared of 0.7586.

Charts 2012-07-22

September Poll Margin vs. Actual Results

From Do Presidential Polls Break Toward Challengers? by Nate Silver

FiveThirtyEight Presidential Voting Index for 2012, listing all US states and districts with their Democratic or Republican voting index values.

Tables 2012-07-25

FiveThirtyEight Presidential Voting Index -- 2012

From State and National Polls Tell Different Tales About State of Campaign by Nate Silver

Table showing implied national popular vote using the simple method, with columns for state, modeled polling average, relative 2008 vote, implied national popular vote, and turnout for 26 states.

Tables 2012-07-25

Implied National Popular Vote -- "Simple" Method

From State and National Polls Tell Different Tales About State of Campaign by Nate Silver

Table showing implied national popular vote by state using FiveThirtyEight method, with polling averages, voting index, elasticity, and relative weight columns.

Tables 2012-07-25

Implied National Popular Vote -- FiveThirtyEight Method

From State and National Polls Tell Different Tales About State of Campaign by Nate Silver

Two tables showing poll counts since June 1 and July 1 for top 10 tipping point states and other competitive states, broken down by Obama leads, Romney leads, and exact ties.

Tables 2012-07-25

Polls Since June 1 and July 1 — Tipping Point States

From State and National Polls Tell Different Tales About State of Campaign by Nate Silver

Scatter plot comparing relative Democratic/Republican vote share by state in 2004 vs 2008 presidential elections, with a trend line showing R-squared of 0.8895.

Charts 2012-07-25

Relative Vote in 2004 vs. 2008 (R² = 0.8895)

From State and National Polls Tell Different Tales About State of Campaign by Nate Silver

Table showing GDP proxies used by FiveThirtyEight model with normalized values for four indicators and an average of 1.7%.

Tables 2012-07-27

G.D.P. Proxies Used by FiveThirtyEight Model

From What the New G.D.P. Figures Mean for the Election by Nate Silver

2012 US Electoral College map showing states colored red for Republican and blue for Democrat with electoral vote counts, from 270toWin.

Maps 2012-07-31

2012 User-Generated Electoral College Map

From Pennsylvania Flaunts Its Importance by Nate Silver

US electoral college map for 2012 showing states colored blue for Obama with 252 electoral votes and red for Republican with 286 electoral votes, with each state labeled with its vote count.

Maps 2012-07-31

2012 User-Generated Electoral College Map

From Pennsylvania Flaunts Its Importance by Nate Silver

2012 US Electoral College map showing states colored blue for Obama (261) and red for Republican (277), with electoral vote counts per state.

Maps 2012-07-31

2012 User-Generated Electoral College Map

From Pennsylvania Flaunts Its Importance by Nate Silver

US electoral college map for 2012 showing states colored blue for Obama and red for Republican with electoral vote counts, showing Obama 251, Republican 287.

Maps 2012-07-31

2012 User-Generated Electoral College Map

From Pennsylvania Flaunts Its Importance by Nate Silver