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May 2012 graphics

21 matches

Small multiples line charts comparing actual vs. expected presidential approval ratings from Eisenhower through Obama, with one panel per president.

Charts 2012-05-02

Actual vs. Expected Approval, Eisenhower through Obama

From Is Obama More Popular Than He Should Be? by John Sides

Line chart comparing Obama's actual approval rating versus model-expected approval from 2009 to 2012, showing actual consistently above expected.

Charts 2012-05-02

Obama Approval Better than Expected

From Is Obama More Popular Than He Should Be? by John Sides

Color-coded table showing projected vote share for same-sex marriage bans by state in November 2012, with accelerated and linear model estimates for both civil union and ban-only measures.

Tables 2012-05-04

Projected Vote Share for Same-Sex Marriage Bans, November 2012

From North Carolina’s Ban on Gay Marriage Appears Likely to Pass by Nate Silver

Table showing projected Obama re-election popular vote margin and win probability based on average payroll job growth from May to November, with current scenario highlighted.

Tables 2012-05-04

Payroll Job Growth and Obama Re-Election Projection

From Has Obama’s Magic Jobs Number Changed? by Nate Silver

Table showing payroll job growth scenarios from May-November and corresponding Obama re-election projected popular vote margin and probability of winning, with +125,000 row highlighted.

Tables 2012-05-04

Payroll Job Growth and Obama Re-Election Projection

From Has Obama’s Magic Jobs Number Changed? by Nate Silver

Table showing payroll job growth rates, equivalent monthly jobs, net approval ratings, and popular vote margins for US presidential incumbents from 1952 to 2008.

Tables 2012-05-04

Payroll Job Growth, Approval Ratings and Popular Vote Margin

From Has Obama’s Magic Jobs Number Changed? by Nate Silver

Table showing payroll job growth rates, equivalent monthly jobs, net approval ratings, and popular vote margins for US presidential incumbents from 1948 to 2004.

Tables 2012-05-04

Payroll Job Growth, Approval Ratings and Popular Vote Margin

From Has Obama’s Magic Jobs Number Changed? by Nate Silver

Bar chart showing revised net payrolls versus originally reported figures from January 2000 to July 2011, with blue bars indicating more jobs and red bars fewer jobs than originally reported.

Charts 2012-05-04

Revised Net Payrolls vs. Originally Reported Figures, January 2000 – July 2011

From Has Obama’s Magic Jobs Number Changed? by Nate Silver

Small multiples line chart comparing actual vs. expected presidential approval ratings from Truman through Obama, one panel per president.

Charts 2012-05-08

Actual vs. Expected Approval, Truman Through Obama

From Is Obama More Popular Than He Should Be, Revisited by John Sides

Line chart comparing Obama's actual vs expected approval ratings from 2009 to 2012, showing actual approval consistently above expected levels.

Charts 2012-05-08

Obama Approval

From Is Obama More Popular Than He Should Be, Revisited by John Sides

Three line charts showing Obama approval ratings by party (Democrats, Independents, Republicans) from 2009 to 2012, comparing actual vs expected values.

Charts 2012-05-08

Obama Approval by Party

From Is Obama More Popular Than He Should Be, Revisited by John Sides

Table listing Conservative Republicans in the 109th Congress by state, name, and current status, with departures highlighted in red or blue.

Tables 2012-05-09

Conservative Republicans in 109th Congress

From Moderate Republicans Fall Away in the Senate by Nate Silver

Table listing Moderate Republicans in the 109th Congress with their state, name, and current status such as defeated, retired, or still in office.

Tables 2012-05-09

Moderate Republicans in 109th Congress

From Moderate Republicans Fall Away in the Senate by Nate Silver

Line chart showing national polling trends on same-sex marriage support versus opposition from 1996 to 2012, with scatter points and trend lines for each position.

Charts 2012-05-09

Same-Sex Marriage -- National Polling Trend

From Support for Gay Marriage Outweighs Opposition in Polls by Nate Silver

Probability distribution chart showing likelihood of voting for Obama based on demographic variables, comparing Black Non-Hispanic and Non-Black voters from the 2008 Annenberg National Election Survey.

Charts 2012-05-11

Probability Distribution: Likelihood of Voting for Obama Based on Demographic Variables

From Gay Marriage and the Democratic Base by Nate Silver

FiveThirtyEight Senate race forecast table showing states grouped by competitiveness category with Democratic, Independent, and GOP probability percentages and shift notes.

Tables 2012-05-16

Senate Race Forecast by State: Safe Democrat to Safe Republican

From Democrats’ Odds of Retaining Senate Improve by Nate Silver

Line chart showing probability of voting for Obama after a positive shock versus previous probability, with red curve, black diagonal, and dotted reference line.

Charts 2012-05-21

Probability of Voting for Obama After Positive Shock

From Swing Voters and Elastic States by Nate Silver

Two-column table listing all 50 US states and DC ranked by elasticity values ranging from 1.29 for Rhode Island to 0.45 for District of Columbia.

Tables 2012-05-21

State Elasticity Rankings

From Swing Voters and Elastic States by Nate Silver

Table classifying US states by elasticity (elastic, average, inelastic) and partisan lean (Strong Dem to Strong GOP) for electoral analysis.

Tables 2012-05-21

State Elasticity vs. Partisan Lean Table

From Swing Voters and Elastic States by Nate Silver

Dual line charts showing attitudes about gay marriage by race (whites and blacks) from 1996 to 2012, tracking favor and oppose percentages over time.

Charts 2012-05-25

Attitudes about Gay Marriage, by Race

From Signs of Shift Among African-Americans on Same-Sex Marriage by Micah Cohen

Economic comparison table showing coincident and forward-looking indicators for May 1980 vs May 2012, including consumption, production, jobs, income, inflation, stock market, and GDP forecast.

Tables 2012-05-30

Economic Comparison (May 1980 vs. May 2012)

From Economically, Obama Is No Jimmy Carter by Nate Silver