fivethirtyeightindex

Explore 38,954 articles, datasets, podcasts, graphics and illustrations from fivethirtyeight.com

March 2012 graphics

67 matches

Line chart comparing Mitt Romney's national vs Ohio state polling trends from August 2011 to February 2012, showing RVI of -2.

Charts 2012-03-02

Mitt Romney: Ohio vs. National Polling Trend

From A Warning on the Accuracy of Primary Polls by Nate Silver

Line chart comparing Mitt Romney's Michigan vs. national polling trends from August 2011 to February 2012, with RVI of +9.

Charts 2012-03-02

Mitt Romney: Michigan vs. National Polling Trend

From Santorum Remains Modest Favorite in Ohio by Nate Silver

Line chart comparing Mitt Romney's national vs Ohio state polling trends from August 2011 to February 2012, with RVI of -2 and yellow shading showing the gap between the two lines.

Charts 2012-03-02

Mitt Romney: Ohio vs. National Polling Trend

From Santorum Remains Modest Favorite in Ohio by Nate Silver

Slope chart showing PPP poll results in Washington for four Republican candidates between Feb 16-19 and Feb 29-Mar 1, with Romney rising and Santorum falling.

Charts 2012-03-03

PPP Polls in Washington

From In Washington Caucus, Expect the Unexpected by Nate Silver

Super Tuesday delegate projections table for March 4, 2012, showing estimated delegates for Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, Paul, and Uncommitted across 10 states.

Tables 2012-03-05

Super Tuesday Delegate Projections — March 4, 2012

From State-by-State Analysis: Romney Could Win Majority of Super Tuesday Delegates by Nate Silver

Poll numbers table showing Friday vs Today vs Change for Santorum, Romney, Gingrich, and Paul across Georgia, Ohio, and Tennessee.

Tables 2012-03-05

Georgia, Ohio, Tennessee Poll Numbers: Friday vs Today

From Santorum Slumps in Super Tuesday Polls by Nate Silver

Table showing Mitt Romney downside scenario delegate counts by state for Super Tuesday March 6 2012, with columns for Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, Paul, and Uncommitted.

Tables 2012-03-06

Mitt Romney -- Downside Scenario (March 6, 2012)

From A Guide to Super Tuesday Possibilities by Nate Silver

Table showing Mitt Romney upside scenario delegate projections for Super Tuesday states on March 6, 2012, with columns for Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, Paul, and Uncommitted.

Tables 2012-03-06

Mitt Romney -- Upside Scenario (March 6, 2012)

From A Guide to Super Tuesday Possibilities by Nate Silver

Table showing delegate counts for Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, Paul, and Uncommitted across Super Tuesday states under a Newt Gingrich downside scenario, dated March 6, 2012.

Tables 2012-03-06

Newt Gingrich -- Downside Scenario (Super Tuesday Delegates)

From A Guide to Super Tuesday Possibilities by Nate Silver

Table showing Newt Gingrich upside scenario delegate counts by state for Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, Paul, and Uncommitted on March 6, 2012.

Tables 2012-03-06

Newt Gingrich -- Upside Scenario (March 6, 2012)

From A Guide to Super Tuesday Possibilities by Nate Silver

Table showing Rick Santorum downside scenario delegate counts by state for Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, Paul, and Uncommitted as of March 6, 2012.

Tables 2012-03-06

Rick Santorum -- Downside Scenario (March 6, 2012)

From A Guide to Super Tuesday Possibilities by Nate Silver

Table showing Rick Santorum upside scenario delegate projections by state for Super Tuesday March 6 2012, with columns for Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, Paul, and Uncommitted.

Tables 2012-03-06

Rick Santorum -- Upside Scenario (March 6, 2012)

From A Guide to Super Tuesday Possibilities by Nate Silver

Color-coded table showing delegate counts for Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, Paul, and Uncommitted across Super Tuesday states in a Ron Paul downside scenario, March 6, 2012.

Tables 2012-03-06

Ron Paul -- Downside Scenario (Super Tuesday Delegates)

From A Guide to Super Tuesday Possibilities by Nate Silver

Table showing Ron Paul upside scenario delegate counts by state for Super Tuesday March 6 2012, with columns for Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, Paul, and Uncommitted.

Tables 2012-03-06

Ron Paul -- Upside Scenario (March 6, 2012)

From A Guide to Super Tuesday Possibilities by Nate Silver

Super Tuesday delegate projections table for March 6, 2012, showing projected delegates for Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, Paul, and Uncommitted across 10 states.

Tables 2012-03-06

Super Tuesday Delegate Projections — March 6, 2012

From A Guide to Super Tuesday Possibilities by Nate Silver

Choropleth map of Ohio counties showing Mike Huckabee's vote share in the 2008 Republican primary, with each county labeled by percentage and shaded by range.

Maps 2012-03-06

Huckabee's Share in 2008 Ohio Republican Primary by County

From How Ohio Voted Last Time by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of Ohio counties showing McCain's vote share in 2008, with darker shading for higher percentages and city labels for Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton, and Cincinnati.

Maps 2012-03-06

McCain's Share in Ohio by County, 2008

From How Ohio Voted Last Time by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of Ohio counties showing Romney's share of the 2008 Republican primary vote, with numbers in each county and a four-tier color legend.

Maps 2012-03-06

Romney's Share in Ohio 2008 Republican Primary by County

From How Ohio Voted Last Time by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of Ohio counties showing Ron Paul's vote share in the 2008 primary, with values ranging from 2% or less to 7% or more.

Maps 2012-03-06

Ron Paul's Share in Ohio by County, 2008

From How Ohio Voted Last Time by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of Tennessee counties showing Mike Huckabee's vote share in the 2008 Republican primary, with counties shaded by percentage range and labeled with specific values.

Maps 2012-03-06

Huckabee's Share in 2008 — Tennessee County Map

From How Tennessee Voted Last Time by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of Tennessee counties showing McCain's vote share in the 2008 presidential election, with counties shaded by percentage range and labeled with numeric values.

Maps 2012-03-06

McCain's Share in 2008 – Tennessee County Map

From How Tennessee Voted Last Time by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of Tennessee counties showing Ron Paul's vote share in the 2008 election, with counties shaded by percentage range from 2% or less to 7% or more.

Maps 2012-03-06

Paul's Share in 2008 – Tennessee County Map

From How Tennessee Voted Last Time by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of Tennessee counties showing Romney's share of the vote in 2008 Republican primary, with numerical values and a four-level shading legend.

Maps 2012-03-06

Romney's Share in 2008 — Tennessee County Map

From How Tennessee Voted Last Time by Micah Cohen

US map showing GOP delegate count by state with Romney at 332, Santorum at 139, Gingrich at 75, and Paul at 35 delegates.

Maps 2012-03-07

GOP Delegate Count Map - Romney 332, Santorum 139, Gingrich 75, Paul 35

From A Predictable Super Tuesday by Nate Silver

Table showing estimated popular vote and delegate counts by state for Santorum, Romney, and Paul in a hypothetical scenario without Newt Gingrich in the 2012 Republican primary.

Tables 2012-03-08

What Would Santorum Have Done Without Newt?

From How Would Santorum Do Without Gingrich? by Nate Silver

Table showing 2012 Republican primary baseline case projections with popular vote percentages and delegate counts for Santorum, Gingrich, Romney, and Paul across all states.

Tables 2012-03-09

2012 Republican Primary Baseline Case: Popular Vote and Delegates

From How Daunting Is Santorum’s Delegate Math? by Nate Silver

Table showing Santorum plus 10 percent case with popular vote and delegate projections for Republican primaries by state and date in 2012.

Tables 2012-03-09

Santorum +10% Case: Popular Vote and Delegates by State

From How Daunting Is Santorum’s Delegate Math? by Nate Silver

Table showing Santorum plus 5% case with popular vote percentages and delegate counts for Republican primary contests by state, comparing Santorum, Gingrich, Romney, and Paul.

Tables 2012-03-09

Santorum +5% Case: Popular Vote and Delegates by State

From How Daunting Is Santorum’s Delegate Math? by Nate Silver

US electoral map showing states colored red, blue, and one state in yellow, likely representing a presidential election result or forecast.

Maps 2012-03-09

US Electoral Map by State

From How Daunting Is Santorum’s Delegate Math? by Nate Silver

US electoral map showing states colored red, blue, or yellow indicating political party affiliations or election results.

Maps 2012-03-09

US Electoral Map by State Party Affiliation

From How Daunting Is Santorum’s Delegate Math? by Nate Silver

US electoral map showing states colored red, blue, and one state in yellow, likely representing political party affiliations or election results.

Maps 2012-03-09

US Electoral Map with Red, Blue, and Yellow States

From How Daunting Is Santorum’s Delegate Math? by Nate Silver

Bubble map of Kansas showing registered Republicans by county, with Johnson County at 23%, Wichita at 14%, Topeka at 5%, highlighted as largest concentrations.

Maps 2012-03-10

Kansas Registered Republicans by County

From Political Geography: Kansas by Micah Cohen

Map of Kansas showing pie charts for each congressional district's 2008 Republican Caucus results, with Huckabee, McCain, and Paul vote percentages.

Charts 2012-03-10

Kansas' 2008 Republican Caucuses

From Political Geography: Kansas by Micah Cohen

Table comparing Obama approval and disapproval ratings from multiple polling aggregators on 3/12/2012 versus one month prior on 2/12/2012.

Tables 2012-03-12

Obama Approval vs. One Month Ago

From Approval Ratings, Gas Prices and Statistical Noise by Nate Silver

Choropleth map of Alabama counties showing Huckabee's vote share in the 2008 Republican primary, with percentages labeled in each county and a four-tier color legend.

Maps 2012-03-13

Huckabee's Share in 2008 by Alabama County

From Political Geography: Alabama by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of Alabama counties showing McCain's share of the vote in 2008, with counties shaded from light pink to dark red based on percentage ranges.

Maps 2012-03-13

McCain's Share in 2008 – Alabama County Map

From Political Geography: Alabama by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of Alabama counties showing Ron Paul's vote share in 2008, with counties shaded by percentage and labeled with numeric values.

Maps 2012-03-13

Paul's Share in 2008 – Alabama County Map

From Political Geography: Alabama by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of Alabama counties showing Mitt Romney's share of the vote in 2008, with values ranging from less than 10% to 20% or more, and major cities labeled.

Maps 2012-03-13

Romney's Share in 2008 by Alabama County

From Political Geography: Alabama by Micah Cohen

Bubble map of Alabama showing voter turnout by county in the 2008 GOP primary, with circles sized by share of statewide voters and percentages labeled for major cities.

Maps 2012-03-13

Turnout in Alabama's 2008 G.O.P. Primary

From Political Geography: Alabama by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of Mississippi counties showing Huckabee's share of the vote in 2008, with percentages labeled in each county and shading from less than 10% to 20% or more.

Maps 2012-03-13

Huckabee's Share in 2008 — Mississippi Counties

From Political Geography: Mississippi by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of Mississippi counties showing McCain's vote share in the 2008 presidential election, with counties shaded from light pink to dark red based on percentage ranges.

Maps 2012-03-13

McCain's Share in 2008 — Mississippi County Map

From Political Geography: Mississippi by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of Mississippi counties showing Ron Paul's vote share in the 2008 primary, with counties shaded by percentage ranges from less than 2% to 7% or more.

Maps 2012-03-13

Paul's Share in 2008 — Mississippi County Map

From Political Geography: Mississippi by Micah Cohen

Color-coded table showing Republican candidates' performance vs. polling forecasts across 20 states, with positive values in blue and negative in red.

Tables 2012-03-14

Performance vs. Polling Forecasts in Broader Set of States

From Why Is Santorum Overperforming His Poll Numbers? by Nate Silver

Table showing Republican candidates' performance vs. polling forecasts in densely polled states, with color-coded positive and negative deviations for Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul.

Tables 2012-03-14

Performance vs. Polling Forecasts in Densely Polled States

From Why Is Santorum Overperforming His Poll Numbers? by Nate Silver

Scatter plot showing Rick Santorum model performance vs. cell-only voters in densely-polled states, with a positive trend line.

Charts 2012-03-14

Rick Santorum Model Performance vs. Cell-Only Voters, Densely-Polled States

From Why Is Santorum Overperforming His Poll Numbers? by Nate Silver

Choropleth map of Illinois counties showing Mike Huckabee's vote share in the 2008 Republican primary, with values ranging from less than 20% in northern counties to 30% or more in southern counties.

Maps 2012-03-20

Huckabee's Share in 2008 – Illinois County Map

From Political Geography: Illinois by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of Illinois counties showing McCain's vote share in the 2008 presidential election, with counties shaded from light pink (under 40%) to dark red (50% or more).

Maps 2012-03-20

McCain's Share in 2008 – Illinois County Map

From Political Geography: Illinois by Micah Cohen

Proportional circle map of Illinois showing Republican votes in the 2008 GOP Primary by region: Downstate 48%, Collar Counties 32%, Chicago/Cook County 20%.

Maps 2012-03-20

Republican Votes in 2008 G.O.P. Primary

From Political Geography: Illinois by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of Illinois counties showing Mitt Romney's share of the vote in the 2008 Republican primary, with percentages labeled in each county.

Maps 2012-03-20

Romney's Share in 2008 – Illinois County Map

From Political Geography: Illinois by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of Illinois counties showing McCain's vote share in the 2008 presidential election, with counties shaded from light pink (under 40%) to dark red (50% or more).

Maps 2012-03-20

McCain's Share in 2008 – Illinois County Map

From Live Coverage: the Illinois Primary by Nate Silver

Infographic showing 2012 Republican primary delegate counts for Romney 563, Santorum 263, Gingrich 135, and Paul 50, illustrated with candidate face photos.

Other 2012-03-22

2012 Republican Primary Delegate Counts

From Introducing the Romney Magic Numbers Calculator by Nate Silver

Choropleth map of Louisiana parishes showing Huckabee's vote share in the 2008 primary, with darker orange indicating higher percentages.

Maps 2012-03-24

Huckabee's Share in 2008 by Louisiana Parish

From Political Geography: Louisiana by Micah Cohen

Bubble map of Louisiana showing registered Republicans by parish, with circle size representing share of registered Republicans in each parish.

Maps 2012-03-24

Louisiana Registered Republicans by Parish

From Political Geography: Louisiana by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of Louisiana parishes showing John McCain's vote share in the 2008 presidential election, with parishes shaded from light pink to dark red based on percentage ranges.

Maps 2012-03-24

McCain's Share in 2008 – Louisiana Parish Map

From Political Geography: Louisiana by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of Louisiana parishes showing Romney's share of the vote in 2008 by county, with values ranging from less than 3% to 7% or more.

Maps 2012-03-24

Romney's Share in 2008 – Louisiana Parishes

From Political Geography: Louisiana by Micah Cohen

Table showing 1992 forecast review comparing incumbent party 2-way vote share and margin of victory predictions versus actuals for six election forecasting models.

Tables 2012-03-26

1992 Forecast Review: Incumbent Party Vote Share and Margin of Victory

From Models Based on ‘Fundamentals’ Have Failed at Predicting Presidential Elections by Nate Silver

1996 forecast review table comparing incumbent party 2-way vote share and margin of victory predictions vs actuals for various election models

Tables 2012-03-26

1996 Forecast Review: Incumbent Party Vote Share and Margin of Victory

From Models Based on ‘Fundamentals’ Have Failed at Predicting Presidential Elections by Nate Silver

Table showing 2000 election forecast review comparing incumbent party 2-way vote share and margin of victory predictions vs actuals for eight models

Tables 2012-03-26

2000 Forecast Review — Incumbent Party Vote Share and Margin of Victory

From Models Based on ‘Fundamentals’ Have Failed at Predicting Presidential Elections by Nate Silver

Table showing 2004 election forecast review comparing incumbent party 2-way vote share and margin of victory predictions versus actual results with errors for various models.

Tables 2012-03-26

2004 Forecast Review: Incumbent Party Vote Share and Margin of Victory

From Models Based on ‘Fundamentals’ Have Failed at Predicting Presidential Elections by Nate Silver

Table comparing 2008 election forecast models showing incumbent party 2-way vote share and margin of victory predictions, actuals, and errors for various models.

Tables 2012-03-26

2008 Forecast Review — Incumbent Party Vote Share and Margin of Victory

From Models Based on ‘Fundamentals’ Have Failed at Predicting Presidential Elections by Nate Silver

Scatter plot comparing predicted vs actual incumbent party vote share from fundamentals models, 1992-2008, with a trend line and R-squared of 0.0371.

Charts 2012-03-26

Fundamentals Models -- 1992-2008 Performance

From Models Based on ‘Fundamentals’ Have Failed at Predicting Presidential Elections by Nate Silver

Scatter plot comparing predicted vs actual incumbent party vote share for horse-race models from 1992 to 2008, with a trend line and R-squared of 0.502.

Charts 2012-03-26

Horse-Race Models -- 1992-2008 Performance

From Models Based on ‘Fundamentals’ Have Failed at Predicting Presidential Elections by Nate Silver

Table of Vice Presidential Nominees since 1948 listing Democratic and Republican candidates by year, with former governors highlighted in red.

Tables 2012-03-27

Vice Presidential Nominees since 1948

From For a Romney Running Mate, Don’t Bet on a Governor by Nate Silver

Line chart showing Martin-Quinn ideology scores of Supreme Court justices from 1935 to 2010, with blue lines for liberal justices, red for conservative, and a bold black median line.

Charts 2012-03-30

Ideology of Supreme Court Justices: Martin-Quinn Scores

From Supreme Court May Be Most Conservative in Modern History by Nate Silver

Line chart showing Martin-Quinn ideology scores of Supreme Court Justices from 1935 to 2010, with liberal and conservative extremes marked.

Charts 2012-03-30

Ideology of Supreme Court Justices: Martin-Quinn Scores

From Supreme Court May Be Most Conservative in Modern History by Nate Silver

Table comparing Republican primary vote shares in metro vs nonmetro counties for 2012 and 2008 candidates, with a difference bar chart column.

Tables 2012-03-30

Vote Share in Counties: Metro vs. Nonmetro Areas (2008 and 2012)

From For Romney, a Widening Gap Between Urban and Rural Support by Micah Cohen

Bar chart comparing Romney 2012 vs McCain 2008 Republican vote share across urban-rural county codes 1-9, showing differences ranging from +2 to +9 for McCain.

Charts 2012-03-30

Vote Share in Counties: Romney 2012 vs McCain 2008 by Urban-Rural Code

From For Romney, a Widening Gap Between Urban and Rural Support by Micah Cohen