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February 2012 graphics

50 matches

Table showing Republican Primary and Caucus Turnout for all voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida comparing 2008 vs 2012 with percent change.

Tables 2012-02-01

Republican Primary and Caucus Turnout

From Romney Wins, but Turnout Lags by Nate Silver

Table showing Republican Primary and Caucus Turnout for Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida comparing 2008 vs 2012 figures with percent change indicators.

Tables 2012-02-01

Republican Primary and Caucus Turnout

From Romney Wins, but Turnout Lags by Nate Silver

Table showing Republican nomination race aggregate popular vote totals for candidates across Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida with totals and share percentages.

Tables 2012-02-01

Republican Nomination Race -- Aggregate Popular Vote

From Five Paths Forward for G.O.P. Nomination by Nate Silver

Scatter plot showing the relationship between election year nonfarm payroll growth (Jan-Oct) and the incumbent party's margin of victory or defeat, with data points labeled by election year.

Charts 2012-02-03

Incumbent Party Margin vs. Election Year Nonfarm Payroll Growth

From Obama’s Magic Number? 150,000 Jobs Per Month by Nate Silver

Scatter plot showing the relationship between election year nonfarm payroll growth and the incumbent party's margin of victory or defeat across multiple presidential elections.

Charts 2012-02-03

Incumbent Party Margin vs. Nonfarm Payroll Growth (Jan.-Oct.)

From Obama’s Magic Number? 150,000 Jobs Per Month by Nate Silver

Table showing incumbent presidents' job ratings on Feb. 1 of election years from 1948 to 2012, with nonfarm payroll growth, equivalent monthly jobs, civilian population growth rate, approval, disapproval, and popular vote margin.

Tables 2012-02-03

Job Rating on Feb. 1 — Incumbent Presidents Election Year Data 1948–2012

From Obama’s Magic Number? 150,000 Jobs Per Month by Nate Silver

Scatter plot showing margin of victory or defeat for incumbent party versus election year nonfarm payroll growth from January to October, with labeled data points for elections from 1952 to 1976.

Charts 2012-02-03

Margin of Victory vs. Nonfarm Payroll Growth (1952–1976)

From Obama’s Magic Number? 150,000 Jobs Per Month by Nate Silver

Table showing nonfarm payroll growth rate, equivalent monthly jobs, and popular vote margin for US presidential election years from 1948 to 2008 by incumbent.

Tables 2012-02-03

Nonfarm Payroll Growth and Popular Vote Margin by Election Year

From Obama’s Magic Number? 150,000 Jobs Per Month by Nate Silver

Stata regression output table showing OLS results for regressing margin on jobsy4 and jobsy1y3, with 16 observations, R-squared 0.4311.

Charts 2012-02-03

Stata OLS Regression Output: margin on jobsy4 and jobsy1y3

From Obama’s Magic Number? 150,000 Jobs Per Month by Nate Silver

Bubble map of Nevada showing registered Republicans by county, with Las Vegas at 62% and Reno at 20% of the total, sized by share of voters in each media market.

Maps 2012-02-04

Registered Republicans In Nevada, by County

From The G.O.P. Landscape in Nevada by Micah Cohen

Nevada Caucus Results by Demographic Group showing Mormon vs Non-Mormon vote percentages for Romney, Gingrich, Paul, and Santorum.

Tables 2012-02-06

Nevada Caucus Results by Demographic Group

From What We Learned from Nevada by Nate Silver

Table showing Republican nomination race aggregate popular vote totals for candidates across Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida with totals and share percentages.

Tables 2012-02-06

Republican Nomination Race -- Aggregate Popular Vote

From What We Learned from Nevada by Nate Silver

Table comparing Republican Primary and Caucus Turnout for 2008 vs 2012 across five states, showing percentage change with small bar charts, for all voters and Republican identifiers only.

Tables 2012-02-06

Republican Primary and Caucus Turnout 2008 vs 2012

From What We Learned from Nevada by Nate Silver

Table showing change in turnout among Republican identifiers and Mitt Romney margin of victory or defeat across five early primary states.

Tables 2012-02-06

Republican Turnout Change vs. Romney Margin by State

From What We Learned from Nevada by Nate Silver

Table showing Google Search Traffic Relative to Baseline for Gingrich, Romney, Santorum, and Paul across Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri.

Tables 2012-02-07

Google Search Traffic Relative to Baseline

From The High Stakes in Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri by Nate Silver

Horizontal bar chart showing the percent of McCain voters making less than $50,000 per year by state, ranging from Missouri at 39% to Colorado at 23%.

Charts 2012-02-07

Percent of McCain Voters Making <$50,000 Per Year

From The High Stakes in Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri by Nate Silver

Table showing recent public policy polling survey results for Romney, Gingrich, Santorum, and Paul in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri.

Tables 2012-02-07

Recent Public Policy Polling Surveys

From The High Stakes in Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri by Nate Silver

Table showing Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum vote share among evangelical and non-evangelical Christians across Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, Nevada, and average.

Tables 2012-02-07

Romney and Santorum Vote Share Among Evangelical Christians

From The High Stakes in Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri by Nate Silver

Line chart showing Obama daily approval ratings from Gallup and Rasmussen from January 8 to February 5, with a vertical line marking when the Jobs Report was released.

Charts 2012-02-10

Obama Approval Rating -- Daily Tracking

From Obama’s Jobs Bounce by Nate Silver

Line chart showing Democratic primary polling trendlines for Obama and Clinton from December 2007 through June 2008, with Obama rising above Clinton around February.

Charts 2012-02-10

Democratic Primary Polling Trendline, 2008

From The Bettor’s Case for Santorum by Nate Silver

Table showing Ron Paul caucus vote share in 2008 and 2012 for Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, and Maine, with percent change.

Tables 2012-02-11

Ron Paul Caucus Vote Share 2008 vs 2012

From Maine Caucus Offers an Opportunity for Paul by Nate Silver

Table comparing Rick Santorum's final PPP poll numbers versus actual results across eight states, showing differences ranging from -2 to +13.

Tables 2012-02-14

Rick Santorum -- Final PPP Poll vs. Actual Result

From Down in Michigan Polls, Romney Needs to Find His Base by Nate Silver

Scatter plot with trend line showing Santorum vs. Romney national polling trend from February 1 to 15, with a vertical line marking CO/MN caucuses on Feb 7.

Charts 2012-02-17

Santorum vs. Romney National Polling Trend

From Santorum’s Surge Holds Steady So Far by Nate Silver

Table showing fundraising data through January for 2000-2012 election cycles, listing candidates with raised, spent, net cashflow, cash on hand, debt, and cash less debt figures in millions.

Tables 2012-02-21

Fundraising Through January, 2000-2012 Election Cycles

From Romney’s Money Problems by Nate Silver

Scatter plot showing Romney's lead over Santorum in recent Arizona polls by median field date, with a trend line rising from about 6 to 16 points.

Charts 2012-02-22

Recent Arizona Polls -- Romney Lead Over Santorum

From Mormon Voters Raise Romney’s Advantage in Arizona by Nate Silver

Michigan Primary Projections table showing projected vote ranges and chances of winning for Romney, Santorum, Paul, and Gingrich.

Tables 2012-02-24

Michigan Primary Projections

From Romney Takes Michigan Forecast Lead by Nate Silver

Table showing Democratic delegate categories with counts and percentages out of 2286 total delegates, with red bar indicators, requiring 1144 to win.

Tables 2012-02-26

Democratic Delegates by Category (2286 Total, 1144 to Win)

From The G.O.P.’s Fuzzy Delegate Math by Nate Silver

Horizontal bar chart showing Republican primary delegate counts for Romney, Santorum, Paul, Gingrich, and Unpledged, with 1144 needed to win.

Charts 2012-02-26

Republican Delegates (1144 to win)

From The G.O.P.’s Fuzzy Delegate Math by Nate Silver

Table showing Republican primary delegate counts and percentages for Romney, Santorum, Paul, Gingrich, and Unpledged, with 1144 needed to win.

Tables 2012-02-26

Republican Delegates (1144 to win)

From The G.O.P.’s Fuzzy Delegate Math by Nate Silver

Horizontal bar chart showing Republican primary delegate counts and percentages for Romney, Santorum, Paul, Gingrich, and Unpledged, with 1144 needed to win.

Charts 2012-02-26

Republican Delegates (1144 to win)

From The G.O.P.’s Fuzzy Delegate Math by Nate Silver

Michigan Primary Projections table showing projected vote ranges and chances of winning for Romney, Santorum, Paul, and Gingrich.

Tables 2012-02-27

Michigan Primary Projections

From Stress-Testing Romney’s Michigan Edge by Nate Silver

Choropleth map of Michigan counties showing Huckabee's vote share in the 2008 primary, with each county labeled by percentage and shaded by four ranges from less than 10% to 20% or more.

Maps 2012-02-27

Huckabee's Share in 2008 by Michigan County

From Political Geography: Michigan by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of Michigan counties showing McCain's vote share in the 2008 election, with counties shaded in four categories from less than 30% to 40% or more.

Maps 2012-02-27

McCain's Share in 2008 by Michigan County

From Political Geography: Michigan by Micah Cohen

Map of Michigan showing regional share of Republican primary voters in 2008, with proportional circles indicating 35% Detroit Area, 24% University Belt, 22% Southwest/Grand Rapids, and 18% Upper Peninsula/North Central.

Maps 2012-02-27

Michigan's Primary Vote

From Political Geography: Michigan by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of Michigan counties showing Ron Paul's vote share in the 2008 primary, with counties shaded by four categories from 4% or less to 15% or more.

Maps 2012-02-27

Paul's Share in 2008 — Michigan County Map

From Political Geography: Michigan by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of Michigan counties showing Romney's share of the vote in 2008, with values ranging from under 30% to 40% or more indicated by shading and labeled numbers.

Maps 2012-02-27

Romney's Share in 2008 by Michigan County

From Political Geography: Michigan by Micah Cohen

Michigan Primary Projections table showing projected vote ranges and chances of winning for Romney 64%, Santorum 36%, Paul 0%, and Gingrich 0%.

Tables 2012-02-27

Michigan Primary Projections

From Michigan Forecast Update: Romney’s Lead Looks More Tenuous by Nate Silver

Michigan Primary Projections table showing projected vote ranges and chances of winning for Romney, Santorum, Paul, and Gingrich.

Tables 2012-02-28

Michigan Primary Projections

From After Many Momentum Shifts, Michigan Is Too Close to Call by Nate Silver

Scatter plot showing Romney-Santorum margin in Michigan polls from February 1 to February 29, with individual poll results plotted over time.

Charts 2012-02-28

Romney-Santorum Margin in Michigan Polls

From After Many Momentum Shifts, Michigan Is Too Close to Call by Nate Silver

Bubble map of Arizona showing registered Republicans by county, with Maricopa County at 62% and 703,288 voters being the largest circle.

Maps 2012-02-28

Arizona's Registered Republicans by County

From Political Geography: Arizona by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of Arizona counties showing Huckabee's vote share in 2008, with values ranging from 6 to 14 percent across counties.

Maps 2012-02-28

Huckabee's Share in Arizona by County, 2008

From Political Geography: Arizona by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of Arizona counties showing John McCain's vote share in the 2008 election, with counties shaded by percentage ranges from less than 30% to 50% or more.

Maps 2012-02-28

McCain's Share in Arizona by County, 2008

From Political Geography: Arizona by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of Arizona counties showing Romney's share of the vote in 2008, with counties shaded by four ranges from less than 30% to 50% or more.

Maps 2012-02-28

Romney's Share in Arizona by County, 2008

From Political Geography: Arizona by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of Arizona counties showing Ron Paul's vote share in 2008, with counties shaded by percentage and labeled with numeric values.

Maps 2012-02-28

Ron Paul's Share in Arizona by County, 2008

From Political Geography: Arizona by Micah Cohen

Scatter plot comparing Huckabee 2008 vote share to Santorum 2012 vote share with a linear regression line and R-squared of 0.5676.

Charts 2012-02-28

Santorum 2012 vs. Huckabee 2008 Vote Share Scatter Plot

From Live Coverage: the Michigan and Arizona Primaries by Nate Silver

Line chart comparing Mitt Romney's national polling trend versus Arizona state polling trend from August 2011 to February 2012, with RVI of +7.

Charts 2012-02-29

Mitt Romney: Arizona vs. National Polling Trend

From The Meaning of Michigan by Nate Silver

Line chart comparing Mitt Romney's Florida vs. national polling trends from August 2011 to February 2012, showing state trend consistently above national trend.

Charts 2012-02-29

Mitt Romney: Florida vs. National Polling Trend

From The Meaning of Michigan by Nate Silver

Line chart comparing Mitt Romney's national polling trend versus Georgia state polling trend from August 2011 to February 2012, with RVI of -9.

Charts 2012-02-29

Mitt Romney: Georgia vs. National Polling Trend

From The Meaning of Michigan by Nate Silver

Line chart comparing Mitt Romney's Michigan vs. national polling trends from August 2011 to February 2012, showing RVI of +9.

Charts 2012-02-29

Mitt Romney: Michigan vs. National Polling Trend

From The Meaning of Michigan by Nate Silver

Line chart comparing Mitt Romney's national vs Ohio state polling trends from August 2011 to February 2012, showing RVI of -2.

Charts 2012-02-29

Mitt Romney: Ohio vs. National Polling Trend

From The Meaning of Michigan by Nate Silver