fivethirtyeightindex

Explore 38,954 articles, datasets, podcasts, graphics and illustrations from fivethirtyeight.com

January 2012 graphics

65 matches

Table of candidate attributes from the Des Moines Register Poll showing leaders and Perry's percentages for qualities like knowledgeable, consistent, and electable.

Tables 2012-01-01

Candidate Attributes -- Des Moines Register Poll

From In Iowa, Rick Perry Is Stuck in the Second Tier by Nate Silver

Iowa Caucus Projections table showing projected vote ranges and chance of winning for seven Republican candidates including Romney, Paul, Santorum, Gingrich, Perry, Bachmann, and Huntsman.

Tables 2012-01-02

Iowa Caucus Projections

From Iowa Race Tightens in Final 48 Hours by Nate Silver

Scatter plot with trend line showing Mitt Romney Iowa polling percentages by field date from December 23 to January 2, with values ranging roughly 17 to 26.

Charts 2012-01-02

Mitt Romney Iowa Polling by Field Date

From Iowa Race Tightens in Final 48 Hours by Nate Silver

Pie chart showing second-place choices of Santorum voters from Public Policy Polling, Dec 31 2011 to Jan 1 2012, with Bachmann leading at 34%.

Charts 2012-01-02

Second-Place Choices of Santorum Voters

From Iowa Race Tightens in Final 48 Hours by Nate Silver

Iowa Caucus Projections table showing projected vote ranges and chances of winning for seven Republican candidates including Romney, Paul, Santorum, Gingrich, Perry, Bachmann, and Huntsman.

Tables 2012-01-02

Iowa Caucus Projections

From Lunchtime Polling Update by Nate Silver

Scatter plot showing how Iowa over/under-performance vs. polls correlates with change in press attention post-Iowa, with labeled outliers Clinton 92, Edwards 08, and Harkin 92.

Charts 2012-01-05

How Iowa Performance vs. Expectations Shape News Coverage

From Candidates Who Do Better Than Expected Win More Media Attention by John Sides

Two-column table comparing most volatile and most stable polling candidates by year and score, from a New York Times graphic.

Tables 2012-01-10

Most Volatile vs. Most Stable Polling Candidates

From Ground Game Determines Candidates’ Strength by Nate Silver

Table of N.H. Primary Winners Since 1972 showing candidate, party cycle, incumbent status, nominee status, vote share, and margin of victory.

Tables 2012-01-10

N.H. Primary Winners Since 1972

From Analysis From the New Hampshire Primary by Nate Silver

Choropleth map of New Hampshire counties showing Republican primary vote percentages for McCain and Romney by county.

Maps 2012-01-10

Republicans: McCain vs. Romney by NH County

From Analysis From the New Hampshire Primary by Nate Silver

Table comparing Romney's performance in New Hampshire counties between 2008 and 2012, showing vote percentages and changes.

Tables 2012-01-10

Romney Performance in N.H. -- 2008 vs 2012

From Analysis From the New Hampshire Primary by Nate Silver

Table showing hypothetical South Carolina forecast with projected vote percentages and chances of winning for six Republican candidates.

Tables 2012-01-11

Hypothetical South Carolina Forecast

From Romney Looks Strong in South Carolina and Beyond by Nate Silver

South Carolina Primary Projections table showing projected vote ranges and chance of winning for six Republican candidates including Romney at 55% chance.

Tables 2012-01-11

South Carolina Primary Projections

From Romney Looks Strong in South Carolina and Beyond by Nate Silver

Line chart showing Mitt Romney's declining polling trend in South Carolina from January 4 to January 11, with data points ranging from about 37% down to 23%.

Charts 2012-01-12

Mitt Romney -- South Carolina Polling Trend

From Polls Show Gains for Romney — But Not in South Carolina by Nate Silver

Horizontal bar chart showing favorable and unfavorable ratings for recent US presidential nominees after the New Hampshire Primary, from 2000 to 2012.

Charts 2012-01-14

Favorability Ratings for Recent Presidential Nominees after New Hampshire Primary

From Romney-Obama: No Popularity Contest by Nate Silver

Pie chart showing the second choice of Jon Huntsman voters based on composite PPP polls since 12/26/11, with Romney leading at 32%.

Charts 2012-01-16

Second Choice of Jon Huntsman Voters

From Huntsman Withdrawal Should Aid Romney by Nate Silver

Gallup poll table showing Republican and Republican-leaning independents' views on acceptability of 2012 GOP presidential nominees, sorted by acceptable percentage.

Tables 2012-01-16

Acceptable Republican Nominees for President, Jan. 5-8, 2012

From National Polls Suggest Romney Is Overwhelming Favorite for G.O.P. Nomination by Nate Silver

Line chart showing the chance of winning a party nomination based on the size of post-New Hampshire national polling lead, with Romney 2012 marked at about 18 points and 95%.

Charts 2012-01-16

Chance of Winning Nomination Based on Size of Post-N.H. National Polling Lead

From National Polls Suggest Romney Is Overwhelming Favorite for G.O.P. Nomination by Nate Silver

Table of national poll results since the New Hampshire Primary showing percentages for Romney, Gingrich, Santorum, Paul, and Perry across four pollsters.

Tables 2012-01-16

National Polls Since New Hampshire Primary

From National Polls Suggest Romney Is Overwhelming Favorite for G.O.P. Nomination by Nate Silver

Table of post-New Hampshire national polling leaders in competitive nominations since 1972, showing cycle, leader, nominee status, poll average, size of lead, and runners up.

Tables 2012-01-16

Post-N.H. National Polling Leaders Since 1972

From National Polls Suggest Romney Is Overwhelming Favorite for G.O.P. Nomination by Nate Silver

Line chart comparing GOP and Democratic voter ratings of their respective presidential fields from May through January, showing four trend lines with percent excellent/good ratings.

Charts 2012-01-18

GOP Ratings of Field Similar to Democrats' Ratings in '04

From The Myth of ‘Anybody but Romney’ by Nate Silver

Line chart showing hypothetical head-to-head poll results between Mitt Romney and the leading Not Romney candidate each month from August to November 2011.

Charts 2012-01-18

Mitt vs. The Not Romney-of-the-month

From The Myth of ‘Anybody but Romney’ by Nate Silver

Horizontal bar infographic showing Republican voter segments: Romney Base 25%, Swing Vote 45%, and Anti-Romney 30%.

Other 2012-01-18

Romney Base vs Swing Vote vs Anti-Romney

From The Myth of ‘Anybody but Romney’ by Nate Silver

Pie chart showing the second choice of Rick Perry voters from composite PPP polls since 12/26/11, with Gingrich at 22%, other/undecided 26%, Paul 12%, Romney 20%, Santorum 20%.

Charts 2012-01-19

Second Choice of Rick Perry Voters

From Perry’s Voters May Not Flock to Gingrich by Nate Silver

Bar chart showing South Carolina Primary Projections with projected vote ranges and chances of winning for Gingrich, Romney, Paul, and Santorum.

Charts 2012-01-19

South Carolina Primary Projections

From Gingrich Tied With Romney in South Carolina Forecast by Nate Silver

Table showing Mitt Romney favorability rating trends from multiple pollsters in January 2012, with favorable and unfavorable ratings and trend indicators.

Tables 2012-01-20

Mitt Romney Favorability Rating Trends

From Nominating Fight Wears on Romney’s Favorability Ratings by Nate Silver

Line chart from TPM PollTracker showing Mitt Romney US favorability vs unfavorability ratings from January 2010 to early 2012, with unfavorable at 44.3% and favorable at 38.6%.

Charts 2012-01-20

Mitt Romney US Favorability (US) — TPM PollTracker

From Nominating Fight Wears on Romney’s Favorability Ratings by Nate Silver

South Carolina Primary Projections table showing projected vote ranges and chances of winning for Gingrich, Romney, Paul, and Santorum.

Tables 2012-01-21

South Carolina Primary Projections

From Gingrich Is Well-Positioned as South Carolina Votes by Nate Silver

Table showing change in FiveThirtyEight South Carolina forecast for candidates between January 16 and January 21, 2012.

Tables 2012-01-21

Change in FiveThirtyEight South Carolina Forecast

From South Carolina Primary Overview and Forecast by Nate Silver

South Carolina Primary Projections table showing projected vote ranges and chances of winning for Gingrich, Romney, Paul, and Santorum.

Tables 2012-01-21

South Carolina Primary Projections

From South Carolina Primary Overview and Forecast by Nate Silver

Choropleth map of South Carolina counties showing Huckabee's vote share in the 2008 primary, with percentages labeled in each county and a four-tier color legend.

Maps 2012-01-21

Huckabee's Share in 2008 – South Carolina County Map

From 2008 South Carolina Primary Benchmarks by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of South Carolina counties showing John McCain's vote share in the 2008 election, with counties shaded from light pink to dark red based on percentage ranges.

Maps 2012-01-21

McCain's Share in 2008 – South Carolina County Map

From 2008 South Carolina Primary Benchmarks by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of South Carolina counties showing Ron Paul's vote share in the 2008 primary, with counties shaded from light to dark green indicating 1-2% up to 5% or more.

Maps 2012-01-21

Paul's Share in 2008 – South Carolina County Map

From 2008 South Carolina Primary Benchmarks by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of South Carolina counties showing Mitt Romney's share of the vote in 2008, with values ranging from less than 10% to 20% or more per county.

Maps 2012-01-21

Romney's Share in 2008 by South Carolina County

From 2008 South Carolina Primary Benchmarks by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of South Carolina showing Thompson's vote share by county in 2008, with counties shaded by percentage ranges and labeled with numeric values.

Maps 2012-01-21

Thompson's Share in 2008 – South Carolina County Map

From 2008 South Carolina Primary Benchmarks by Micah Cohen

Stacked horizontal bar chart showing South Carolina exit poll ideology breakdown for 1996, 2000, and 2008 across Very Conservative, Somewhat Conservative, Moderate, and Liberal categories.

Charts 2012-01-21

Past South Carolina Exit Polls - Ideology

From Live Coverage of the South Carolina Primary by Nate Silver

Choropleth map of South Carolina counties showing Mitt Romney's share of the vote in 2008, with values ranging from less than 10% to 20% or more per county.

Maps 2012-01-21

Romney's Share in 2008 by South Carolina County

From Live Coverage of the South Carolina Primary by Nate Silver

Stacked bar chart showing South Carolina exit poll data on when voters decided their vote, comparing last three days vs four or more days ago, for elections 1996-2012.

Charts 2012-01-21

South Carolina Exit Polls - Decided Vote

From Live Coverage of the South Carolina Primary by Nate Silver

South Carolina Primary Projections table showing projected vote ranges and chances of winning for Gingrich, Romney, Paul, and Santorum.

Tables 2012-01-21

South Carolina Primary Projections

From Live Coverage of the South Carolina Primary by Nate Silver

Two-column table comparing most volatile and most stable polling candidates by year and score, from a New York Times graphic.

Tables 2012-01-22

Most Volatile vs. Most Stable Polling Candidates

From Did Gingrich’s Win Break the Paradigm? by Nate Silver

Table of post-New Hampshire national polling leaders in competitive nominations since 1972, showing cycle, leader, nominee status, poll average, size of lead, and runners up.

Tables 2012-01-22

Post-N.H. National Polling Leaders Since 1972

From Did Gingrich’s Win Break the Paradigm? by Nate Silver

Horizontal bar chart showing presidential endorsement snapshot two weeks after N.H. Primary, displaying share of party governors and senators endorsing by year and party.

Charts 2012-01-24

Presidential Endorsement Snapshot: Two Weeks after N.H. Primary

From Some Signs G.O.P. Establishment’s Backing of Romney Is Tenuous by Nate Silver

Horizontal bar chart showing uses of the term Reagan during GOP presidential debates, with total mentions, number of debates, and mentions per debate for each candidate.

Charts 2012-01-24

Uses of Term 'Reagan' During G.O.P. Presidential Debates

From Reagan Count: Gingrich 55, Romney 6 by Nate Silver

Color-coded table showing the number of times each GOP presidential candidate used the term 'Reagan' during Republican primary debates from May 2011 to January 2012.

Tables 2012-01-24

Uses of Term 'Reagan' During G.O.P. Presidential Debates

From Reagan Count: Gingrich 55, Romney 6 by Nate Silver

Table of recent Florida G.O.P. primary polls showing results for Gingrich, Romney, Santorum, and Paul from five pollsters with averages.

Tables 2012-01-25

Recent Florida G.O.P. Primary Polls

From The Florida State of Play by Nate Silver

Scatter plot showing Florida GOP primary poll results day-by-day from Jan 12-25, with dots shifting from Romney leads to Gingrich leads after the South Carolina primary on Jan 21.

Charts 2012-01-25

Florida G.O.P. Primary Polls, Day-by-Day Results

From Polls Suggest Gingrich’s Support May Have Peaked by Nate Silver

Dot plot showing Florida GOP primary poll results day-by-day from January 12 to 25, with a vertical dashed line marking the South Carolina Primary on January 21.

Charts 2012-01-26

Florida G.O.P. Primary Polls, Day-by-Day Results

From Gingrich Enters Debate Needing One More Comeback by Nate Silver

Stacked bar chart comparing PolitiFact truth ratings for Republican candidates Romney, Gingrich, Paul, and Santorum across two time periods.

Charts 2012-01-27

Republican Candidates' PolitiFact Grades

From Another Check on the Campaign’s Truthiness by Micah Cohen

Scatter plot showing Florida GOP primary poll results day-by-day from January 12 to 28, with a vertical dashed line marking the South Carolina Primary, showing a shift from Romney leading to Gingrich leading.

Charts 2012-01-29

Florida G.O.P. Primary Polls, Day-by-Day Results

From Consensus of Polls Shows Romney Up in Florida by Nate Silver

Scatter plot showing Florida GOP primary poll results day-by-day from January 12 to 28, with a vertical dotted line marking the South Carolina Primary.

Charts 2012-01-29

Florida G.O.P. Primary Polls, Day-by-Day Results

From Gingrich Upset Chances Dwindle in New Florida Polls by Nate Silver

Florida Primary Projections table showing projected vote ranges and chances of winning for Romney 44.1% 95%, Gingrich 31.1% 5%, Santorum 14.4% 0%, Paul 8.9% 0%

Tables 2012-01-29

Florida Primary Projections

From Gingrich Upset Chances Dwindle in New Florida Polls by Nate Silver

Scatter plot showing Florida GOP primary poll results day-by-day from January 12-29, with a vertical dashed line marking the South Carolina Primary and dots showing Gingrich vs Romney leads.

Charts 2012-01-30

Florida G.O.P. Primary Polls, Day-by-Day Results

From Polls Diverge, but All Point to a Romney Win by Nate Silver

Florida Primary Projections table showing projected vote ranges and chances of winning for Romney 97%, Gingrich 3%, Santorum 0%, and Paul 0%.

Tables 2012-01-30

Florida Primary Projections

From Polls Diverge, but All Point to a Romney Win by Nate Silver

Scatter plot with trend line showing Florida polling data from a Gingrich optimist perspective, with a vertical dashed line marking the South Carolina Primary on 1/21.

Charts 2012-01-30

How a Gingrich Optimist Sees Florida

From Polls Diverge, but All Point to a Romney Win by Nate Silver

Scatter plot with curve showing how a Romney optimist interprets Florida polling data relative to the South Carolina Primary, with Gingrich vs Romney margins on y-axis.

Charts 2012-01-30

How a Romney Optimist Sees Florida

From Polls Diverge, but All Point to a Romney Win by Nate Silver

Dot plot showing Florida GOP primary poll results day-by-day from January 12 to 30, with a vertical dashed line marking the South Carolina Primary on January 21.

Charts 2012-01-31

Florida G.O.P. Primary Polls, Day-by-Day Results

From Florida Primary Overview and Forecast by Nate Silver

Florida Primary Projections table showing projected vote ranges and chances of winning for Romney, Gingrich, Santorum, and Paul.

Tables 2012-01-31

Florida Primary Projections

From Florida Primary Overview and Forecast by Nate Silver

Florida Primary Projections table showing projected vote ranges and chances of winning for Romney 44% 97%, Gingrich 29.3% 3%, Santorum 13.9% 0%, Paul 11.2% 0%.

Tables 2012-01-31

Florida Primary Projections

From Florida Primary Overview and Forecast by Nate Silver

Bubble map of Florida showing where registered Republicans are concentrated by media market, with circles sized by share of voters.

Maps 2012-01-31

Where the Florida Republicans Are

From The Political Geography of Florida by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of Florida counties showing Giuliani's share of the vote in 2008, with counties shaded by four ranges from less than 10% to 20% or more.

Maps 2012-01-31

Giuliani's Share in Florida 2008 by County

From Florida Benchmarks From 2008 by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of Florida counties showing Huckabee's vote share in the 2008 primary, with counties shaded by four percentage ranges from less than 10% to 30% or more.

Maps 2012-01-31

Huckabee's Share in 2008 by Florida County

From Florida Benchmarks From 2008 by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of Florida counties showing John McCain's vote share in the 2008 presidential election, with counties shaded by four ranges from less than 30% to 40% or more.

Maps 2012-01-31

McCain's Share in 2008 – Florida County Map

From Florida Benchmarks From 2008 by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of Florida counties showing Ron Paul's vote share in the 2008 primary, with counties shaded by percentage ranging from 1-2% to 5% or more.

Maps 2012-01-31

Paul's Share in 2008 – Florida County Map

From Florida Benchmarks From 2008 by Micah Cohen

Choropleth map of Florida counties showing Mitt Romney's share of the Republican primary vote in 2008, with values ranging from under 25% to 35% or more.

Maps 2012-01-31

Romney's Share in 2008 – Florida County Map

From Florida Benchmarks From 2008 by Micah Cohen

Dot plot showing Florida GOP primary poll results day-by-day from January 12 to 30, with a vertical dashed line marking the South Carolina Primary on January 21.

Charts 2012-01-31

Florida G.O.P. Primary Polls, Day-by-Day Results

From Live Coverage of the Florida Primary by Nate Silver

Table showing New Hampshire Republican primary results from 1972 to 2008, listing year, winner, runner-up, and margin of victory.

Tables 2012-01-31

New Hampshire Republican Primary Results 1972–2008

From Live Coverage of the Florida Primary by Nate Silver