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October 2010 graphics

9 matches

Line chart showing standard deviation of average error for Senate and gubernatorial race polls from 1998-2010, plotted against number of unique pollsters in the final 21 days of campaign.

Charts 2010-10-04

Standard Deviation for Polls of Senate and Gubernatorial Races (1998-2010)

From The Uncanny Accuracy of Polling Averages*, Part IV: Are the Polls Getting Worse? by Nate Silver

Table of generic congressional ballot polls showing Branch, State, Matchup, Pollster, Date, LV, RV, and Gap columns with results favoring Republicans.

Tables 2010-10-05

Generic D v. Generic R Congressional Ballot Polls

From ‘Likely Voter’ Gap Favors G.O.P. by 6 Points; Gallup’s Model Sees It Bigger by Nate Silver

Table of political race polling data showing branch, state, matchup, pollster, date, LV and RV poll results, and gap for various 2010 races.

Tables 2010-10-05

Local Race Polling Data Table with LV/RV Gaps

From ‘Likely Voter’ Gap Favors G.O.P. by 6 Points; Gallup’s Model Sees It Bigger by Nate Silver

Line chart comparing total individual contributions received by U.S. House nominees for Democrats and Republicans through the 2Q filing deadline from 1998 to 2010.

Charts 2010-10-06

Total Individual Contributions Received by U.S. House Nominees Through 2Q Filing Deadline, 1998-2010

From Understanding and Misunderstanding the ‘Enthusiasm Gap’ by Nate Silver

Gallup table showing voter enthusiasm by party affiliation across midterm election years 2010, 2006, 2002, 1998, and 1994.

Tables 2010-10-06

Voter Enthusiasm in Midterm Elections: Republicans vs. Democrats (Gallup)

From Understanding and Misunderstanding the ‘Enthusiasm Gap’ by Nate Silver

Scatter plot showing change in polls from Period D to Period C on the y-axis versus change in polls from Period E to Period D on the x-axis, with a slight downward trend line.

Charts 2010-10-20

Change in Polls Period E to D vs Period D to C

From The Misunderstanding of Momentum by Nate Silver

Scatter plot showing change in polls from Period B to Period A on x-axis versus change from Period A polls to election results on y-axis, with a slight negative trend line.

Charts 2010-10-20

Change in Polls vs. Change from Polls to Election Results

From The Misunderstanding of Momentum by Nate Silver

Scatter plot showing change in polls from Period B to Period A versus change from Period C to Period B, with a slight negative trend line.

Charts 2010-10-20

Change in Polls: Period C to B vs. Period B to A

From The Misunderstanding of Momentum by Nate Silver

Scatter plot showing shift in polls from Period C to Period B versus change in polls from Period D to Period C, with a slight downward trend line.

Charts 2010-10-20

Shift in Polls Period C to B vs. Change Period D to C

From The Misunderstanding of Momentum by Nate Silver