| Frequently Asked Questions, Last Revised 8/7/08 |
| Pollster Ratings v1.0 |
| A Reality Check on South Dakota? |
| Summary Results, 3/7/2008 |
| Still in Beta Test Mode |
| 538 versus Intrade |
| FAQ |
| Regions |
| Still in Beta Test Mode |
| Moving beyond the Big Three |
| Plenty of Democrats in Red States |
| Some "New" North Carolina polls |
| The Clinton voters who won't vote for Obama |
| Carolinas Down, 48 to Go |
| New Pennsylvania, Michigan polls are good news for McCain |
| Pollster Ratings v2.0 |
| Does Obama benefit from an active primary campaign? |
| Swing State Analysis |
| New Maps |
| Beware of (Temporarily) Falling Polls |
| The Real Comeback Kid: Ralph Nader? |
| Today's Polls, 3/15 |
| A Technical Note |
| Today's Polls, 3/16 |
| The Real Comeback Kid: Ralph Nader? |
| Damage Done? |
| The Six Types of Voters |
| An Objective (?) Take on Obama's Speech |
| Today's Polls, 3/18 |
| Today's Polls, 3/19 |
| Obama Retains Electability Advantage, but Both Democrats Below 50% |
| Wright and the Obamacans |
| Today's Polls, 3/21 |
| Today's Polls, 3/22 |
| Today's Polls, 3/25 |
| Tonight's Polls, 3/24 |
| Today's Polls, 3/26 |
| And Today's Other Poll... |
| McCain within 3 of Clinton in California, Connecticut [UPDATED] |
| Schrödinger's Poll |
| And Today’s Other Poll… |
| Fivethrityeight.com now twice as good |
| McCain's first target: New Mexico |
| Today's Polls: Bad news for both Dems in Virginia |
| Today's Polls, 3/29 |
| Win Percentage Tracker |
| Today’s Polls, 3/29 |
| Win Percentage Tracker |
| A Boring Poll, and a Pop Quiz |
| Today’s Polls, 3/31 |
| Rasmussen, Survey USA, Enthusiasm and Likely Voters |
| State-by-State Fundraising Numbers |
| A Game-Changer in Ohio? |
| The Reverse Bradley Effect: Fact or Fiction? |
| Site Fixes |
| Today’s Polls: Great News for Hillary |
| It’s 3 AM: Time to Fire Your Creative Director |
| Polls Now Weighted by Sample Size |
| Today’s Polls, 4/3: A 30,000-foot look at Pennsylvania |
| Today’s Polls, 4/4 |
| The Clinton Voters who won’t vote for Obama, Part II |
| Saturday Night Nerdiness |
| Today's Polls, 4/6 |
| Barr, the Libertarians and Georgia |
| Clinton and Education Levels |
| Graph(s) of the Day |
| The Momentumless Primary |
| Today's Polls, 4/7 |
| Tonight's Polls, 4/8 |
| African-American turnout in the primaries |
| If 538 were trying to predict the PA primary... [UPDATED] |
| The Education Gap, Part II |
| WNBC/Marist: New York a Swing State? |
| We know even less than we think (a methodological note) |
| Tonight’s Polls, 4/8 |
| If 538 were trying to predict the PA primary… [UPDATED] |
| Makeover |
| Obama: the Zima-track candidate? |
| Small States, Big Advantage |
| Today's Polls: Alaska! |
| Clinton's Unity Bounce |
| Contemplating the Unity Bounce |
| If it worked for Joe Klein... |
| Regions |
| Today's Polls, 4/11 |
| If it worked for Joe Klein… |
| Clinging to Guns |
| Regions, the resolution |
| Today's Polls, 4/12 |
| Regions |
| Daily tracking polls show apparently split verdict on Obama |
| Michigan versus Ohio (and Pennsylvania) |
| Today's Polls, 4/14 |
| ARG! |
| Quinnipiac: 'Bitter' having no effect in Pennsylvania's small towns (updated) |
| Today's Polls, 4/15 |
| Michigan versus Ohio (and Pennsylvania) |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: Pennsylvania Prediction: Clinton to net 12 delegates, 120K popular votes |
| Three Thoughts on Tonight's Debate |
| Pennsylvania Prediction: Clinton to net 12 delegates, 120K popular votes |
| Dear George: voters don't care about electability |
| On the value of the campaign |
| Today's Polls, 4/17: Obama takes a hit, with caveat |
| Three Thoughts on Tonight’s Debate |
| John McCain: Darling of the East Coast? |
| Today's Polls, 4/18 |
| Are Undecideds leaning Clinton in Pennsylvania? |
| The Other Side of the Undecided Coin |
| It's the turnout, stupid! [UPDATED] |
| The Pennsylvania Lottery |
| The Road Not Taken |
| Today's Polls, 4/20 |
| Today's Polls, 4/21 |
| Expectations and Realities |
| Matt Drudge: Drama Queen |
| Pennsylvania Scorecard |
| Pennsylvania: Lackadaisical Liveblog |
| Today's (General Election) Polls, 4/22 |
| Math for Donkeys |
| Today's Polls, 4/23 |
| Indiana Stragglers (UPDATED) |
| Overton Window |
| Today's Polls, 4/24 |
| Will Clinton get a Keystone Bounce? |
| The Vindictive Clinton Voter, and Other Myths |
| Today's Polls, 4/25 |
| Indiana Stragglers (UPDATED) |
| Is Indiana really more important than North Carolina? |
| Regression Model Q&A |
| This Morning's Poll, and a Regression Model Makeover |
| The Road Veers Right |
| Regression Model Q&A |
| Is Indiana really more important than North Carolina? |
| Call me contrarian, but... |
| Clinton's Bounce |
| Pollster Ratings v3.0 |
| Today's Polls, 4/28 |
| Wine States versus Beer States |
| Call me contrarian, but… |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: Electoral History Charts |
| One benefit of falling poll numbers... |
| Today’s Polls, 4/28 |
| Electoral History Charts |
| Clinton +2 in North Carolina? |
| Pollster Ratings, v3.1 |
| This Morning's Polls, 4/30 |
| Voters v. Media: a concerning result |
| One benefit of falling poll numbers… |
| Indiana Prediction: Toss-Up, but tilts Clinton; possible 36-36 delegate split |
| Today's Polls, 5/1 |
| Clinton +2 in North Carolina? |
| Voters v. Media: a concerning result |
| ARG Attacks! |
| It's not all about Obama |
| Make your own North Carolina prediction |
| Tarheel Tidbits |
| Today's Polls: Obama and Clinton chasing 50% against McCain |
| CBS/NYT: Both Dems lead McCain by double digits |
| OR-51 for the Win? |
| Today's Polls, 5/3 |
| Late Movement? |
| North Carolina Prediction: Obama by Double Digits |
| Obama's favorite pollsters (and Clinton's) |
| Today's Polls, 5/5 |
| African-American turnout in North Carolina, Part II |
| Election Night Thread |
| Indiana Scorecard |
| North Carolina Scorecard |
| Obama Margin of Error |
| The older bird gets the worm? |
| Obama’s favorite pollsters (and Clinton’s) |
| Did Clinton Misplay her Ace? |
| Quote of the Day |
| The Eighth Reason |
| The Superdelegate Thermostat |
| Today's Polls, 5/7 |
| Victory Lap? |
| Hers if She Wants It? |
| Today's Polls, 5/8 |
| Today’s Polls, 5/7 |
| The Superdelegate Thermostat |
| Challenge to Dick Bennett of American Research Group |
| Everything you always wanted to know about Obama's pledged delegate clinching scenarios* |
| Rasmussen: Obama leads Clinton by 11 since North Carolina victory |
| Does Clinton really lead in Swing Districts? |
| Today's Polls, 5/10 |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: Black, Youth and Latino Turnout, and Obama's Electoral Map |
| Q&A on Minority Turnout Model |
| Tonight's Polls, 5/11 |
| What are they waiting for? |
| Black, Youth and Latino Turnout, and Obama’s Electoral Map |
| Five Reasons why 2012 is a No-Go for Clinton |
| Today's Polls, 5/12 |
| Would Obama win the California primary today? |
| Tonight’s Polls, 5/11 |
| Q&A on Minority Turnout Model |
| Back-of-envelope |
| Clinton wins West Virginia |
| West Virginia Preview: Clinton by 39 points, 105,000 votes |
| A landmark, of sorts |
| Hillary's Oregon Problem |
| Multiple Choice |
| The Early Bird still got the Worm |
| Two Wrongs make a Right? |
| Clinton wins West Virginia |
| Among working class whites, Clinton kicked Edwards' ass too |
| Delegate Scenarios, Edwards Edition |
| Today's Polls, 5/15 |
| But Dukakis <span style="font-style:italic;">won</span> West Virginia |
| Gay rights issues present opportunities for both candidates |
| Meanwhile, on Planet Obama... |
| Today's Polls, 5/16 |
| War Games? |
| But Dukakis won West Virginia |
| Meanwhile, on Planet Obama… |
| Hope for Hillary in Oregon? |
| Oregon: Swing State or latte-drinking, Prius-driving lesbian commune? |
| Today's Polls, 5/17 |
| Like Kissing Your Sister |
| Today's Polls, 5/18 |
| Clinton is blowing the popular vote argument |
| Oregon Projection: Obama by 13 |
| Today's Polls, 5/19 |
| Like Kissing Your Sister |
| It seems trivial now... |
| Kentucky Projection: Clinton by 19 |
| Kentucky/Oregon Primary Night Thread |
| Move along, nothing to see here |
| Primary Night Thread II (Oregon) |
| RSS Feed |
| Revised Oregon turnout estimate |
| Today's Polls, 5/20 |
| It seems trivial now… |
| Kentucky/Oregon wrap-up |
| National Review solves Fermat's Last Theorem |
| Three-Way? |
| Today's Polls, 5/21 [UPDATED] |
| Wish List |
| Primary Night Thread II (Oregon) |
| Can Obama Clinch on June 3rd? |
| Today's Polls II, 5/22 |
| Today's Polls, 5/22 |
| National Review solves Fermat’s Last Theorem |
| It's rare to tap the #2 |
| Michigan: What would have happened? |
| Party Identification in Ohio |
| Today's Polls, 5/23 |
| Today's Polls, 5/24 |
| Michigan: What would have happened? |
| McCain-Jindal? |
| The odds of a recount |
| Today's Polls, 5/25 |
| Limited Sample Size Department |
| The Libertarians' Big Tent |
| Today's Polls, 5/26 |
| Adventures in Lannyland |
| Defeat with Dignity? |
| Today's Polls, 5/27 |
| The Libertarians’ Big Tent |
| A Senior Surge? |
| Pollster Ratings, v3.1.1 |
| Today's Polls, 5/28 |
| Incoming! |
| Instant Coffee |
| Six versus half-a-dozen |
| Today's Polls, 5/29 |
| No, I'm not Chuck Todd |
| Today's Polls, 5/30 |
| Turnout in Puerto Rico |
| Six versus half-a-dozen |
| "A fair reflection of a flawed primary" |
| Michigan's turnout |
| Obama's new magic number: <strike>63</strike>? 64? |
| The choose-your-own-adventure primary |
| Obama’s new magic number: 63? 64? |
| Clinton wins Puerto Rico |
| Exit poll hints at a big Clinton win in Puerto Rico? |
| Now It Matters |
| Popular Vote Scenario Tester, Online Version [UPDATED] |
| Today's Polls, 6/1 |
| Arguing against the polls |
| Fear of the Unknown |
| Montana Projection: Obama by 18 |
| On which reputations are made (or lost) |
| South Dakota Projection: Obama by 5 |
| Today's Polls, 6/2 |
| Popular Vote Scenario Tester, Online Version [UPDATED] |
| BREAKING: Hillary concedes that she conceded to concede... |
| Exit poll teasers (updated) |
| Grand Finale Night Liveblog |
| Grand Finale Night Liveblog II: Montana and Obama's Speech |
| Midday Notes |
| Today's Polls, 6/3 |
| South Dakota Projection: Obama by 5 |
| Montana Projection: Obama by 18 |
| BREAKING: Hillary concedes that she conceded to concede… |
| Final Popular Vote Estimates: Obama wins 7 of 8 Michigan scenarios |
| Hillary's Future (at 538) |
| McCain's strategy: force a gaffe? |
| Two Mediocrities? |
| Grand Finale Night Liveblog |
| Grand Finale Night Liveblog II: Montana and Obama’s Speech |
| A Call for Pollster-Poblano Unity |
| A New Map |
| National Polls |
| Today's Polls, 6/5 |
| Hillary Clinton: Czarina of Recounts? |
| Pardon the Dust |
| Some signs of a unity bounce |
| Today's Polls, 6/6 |
| A New Map |
| Clinton-McCain archive |
| How the Electoral College Hurts the GOP |
| Briefings, Branding, and Bravado |
| Can Nader help Obama? |
| Today's Polls, 6/8 |
| An Attempt at Senate Race Rankings |
| The best move of the general election season (so far) |
| Today's Polls, 6/9 |
| Candidate Health Report: John McCain |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: Liberal-Conservative Rankings Done Right |
| Homework Assignment |
| The best move of the general election season (so far) |
| Liberal-Conservative Rankings Done Right |
| 'Zona Defense |
| 51,199,463,116,367 (Shout-Outs) |
| Today's Polls, 6/11 |
| Tonight's Polls, 6/10 |
| Candidate Health Report: John McCain |
| Carne Asada con Obama |
| Etc. Etc. Etc. |
| Today's Polls, 6/12 |
| World's Simplest Election Projection |
| 51,199,463,116,367 (Shout-Outs) |
| ‘Zona Defense |
| CNN Video |
| Tim Russert |
| Today's Polls, 6/13 |
| Etc. Etc. Etc. |
| Major Update Coming |
| McCain's Atheist Problem? |
| We don't know as much as we think (Big Change #1) |
| We know more than we think (Big Change #2) |
| We know more than we think (Big Change #2) |
| A Refinement to the Adjustment, Part I |
| A Refinement to the Adjustment, Part II |
| Popular Vote v Electoral Vote |
| Tea Leaves |
| Today's Polls, 6/16 |
| Weekend Poll Catchup |
| Defining a "Must Win" (Technical) |
| Guess Who's Blogging for the National Press Club? |
| Today's Polls, 6/17 |
| Trendline now calculated from daily numbers |
| Today’s Polls, 6/16 |
| Tea Leaves |
| Afternoon Polling Update, 6/18 |
| Does Obama still have an Appalachia Problem? |
| Obama's bounce in state polling |
| Today's Polls, 6/18 |
| Defining a “Must Win” (Technical) |
| Coming Soon |
| Evening Polling Update, 6/19 |
| Today's Polls, 6/19 |
| Why Obama should visit Alaska, Part II |
| How (not) to win over Clinton supporters |
| Today's Polls, 6/20 |
| Evening Polling Update, 6/19 |
| Obama's bounce in state vs national polls |
| Swing District Dems voted for FISA Compromise |
| Today's Polls, 6/21 |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: Why Obama isn't like Dukakis |
| Today's Polls, 6/22 |
| Why Obama isn’t like Dukakis |
| Is Charlie Black Right? |
| The Win Percentage Tracker Returns |
| Today's Polls, 6/23 |
| Keep an eye on SC-Sen |
| Liberal-Conservative Scores for Senate Candidates |
| Today's Polls, 6/24 |
| Moving Beyond the Seat Count |
| Should McCain just embrace the bad polls? |
| Today's Polls, 6/25 |
| Should we be discounting Obama's lead? The next and hopefully last Big Change. |
| Today's Polls, 6/26 |
| Which Candidate has a Base Problem? |
| Should McCain just embrace the bad polls? |
| Ebb and Flow |
| Right Track |
| Today's Polls, 6/27 |
| Wrong Track |
| Bob Barr Not Going Viral |
| Construction Season Over (Technical) |
| If the Election WERE Held Today... |
| The Electric Minor Political Scandal Acid Test |
| Today's Polls, 6/29 |
| If the Election WERE Held Today… |
| Internal Polls |
| Is Obama Becoming 'Generic Democrat'? |
| Senate Polling Permathread (Updated 6/30) |
| Senate Projections are Live |
| Today's Polls, 6/30 |
| And Here I Thought John Kerry Lost... |
| Lanny Davis: Still a Hack After All These Years |
| Senate Projections Methodology Primer, Part I |
| Today's Polls, 7/1 |
| And Here I Thought John Kerry Lost… |
| A Small Change |
| Irresponsible Journalism Alert |
| Steve Schmidt Gets It |
| Today's Polls, 7/2 |
| Flip-Flopping: As American as Apple Pie |
| Return on Investment |
| Something You Probably Never Expected to See |
| Speaking of North Dakota... |
| Today's Polls, 7/3 |
| Today’s Polls, 7/2 |
| Steve Schmidt Gets It |
| Speaking of North Dakota… |
| No Fireworks, But A Few Small Changes |
| Today's Polls, 7/5 |
| Why are New Jersey Politicians Always Rich? An Analysis of TV Markets. |
| No Fireworks, But A Few Small Changes |
| Why are New Jersey Politicians Always Rich? An Analysis of TV Markets. |
| Today’s Polls, 7/5 |
| Nuclear Deterrence? |
| State Similarity Scores |
| Webb Out; Who's Up? [UPDATED] |
| The Virtue of Vetting |
| Senate Polling Weekly Update, 7/7 |
| Has Obama Won the Center? [UPDATED] |
| Shadow Senate Race? |
| Quibble |
| Zogby Interactive Data Dump |
| Leaners |
| Today's Polls, 7/9 |
| Popular Vote v Electoral Vote, Part II |
| Better to be Lucky... |
| Better to be Lucky… |
| Tipping Point v2.0 |
| Today's Polls, 7/10 |
| The Other Advantage of Opting Out |
| Obama is the New... |
| Obama is the New… |
| Today's Polls, 7/11 |
| This Post is Already Written |
| Today's Polls, 7/12 |
| Running (Mate) to the Center [UPDATED] |
| Today's Polls, 7/13 |
| Republican VP Speculation Thread |
| Today's Polls, 7/14 |
| Travel Delays / Open Thread |
| When Memes Collide |
| Equal Time |
| Today's Polls, 7/15 |
| Today’s Polls, 7/15 |
| Today's Polls, 7/17 |
| Yesterday's Polls, 7/16 |
| It's A <span style="font-style:italic;">Dry</span> Heat |
| Today's Polls, 7/18 |
| It’s A Dry Heat |
| Bob Barr Meets The Netroots |
| Cellphones (and Open Thread) |
| Obama and Austin, Take II |
| Obama and al-Maliki |
| Clinton's Debt Reveals Flaws in Campaign Finance Laws |
| Senate Polling Weekly Update, 7/20 |
| Today's Polls, 7/21 |
| Zugzwang |
| Did the <span style="font-style: italic;">New Yorker</span> Get Snubbed from the Obama Campaign Plane? |
| Dueling Ohio Polls |
| The Cellphone Problem, Revisited |
| Today's Polls, 7/22 |
| Today’s Polls, 7/21 |
| Did the New Yorker Get Snubbed from the Obama Campaign Plane? |
| Charts Updated (Finally) |
| Do High Gas Prices Help Obama? |
| Raising Kaine? |
| Today's Polls, 7/23 |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: What Barack Obama Needs to Win |
| The Reverse Nader Effect |
| Today's Polls, 7/24 |
| Charts Updated (Finally) |
| What Barack Obama Needs to Win |
| Lessons from the Overseas Trip |
| McCain Ups the Ante |
| Name ... that ... Subgroup! |
| Today's Polls, 7/25 |
| The Sleeper Issue of 2008: Beer |
| Today's Polls, 7/26 |
| Name … that … Subgroup! |
| The Subliminal Power of Obama's Berlin Speech |
| Today's Polls and Miscellaneous Thoughts, 7/27 |
| A Short List of Short Lists [UPDATED] |
| About that McCain +4 |
| Comments Now Require Registration |
| Romney's Effect On the Map |
| Senate Polling Weekly Update, 7/28 |
| AK-Sen: Ted Stevens Indicted |
| Today's Polls, 7/29 |
| Tom and Huckabee |
| Comments Now Require Registration |
| Barack is, like, *so* popular! |
| Obama on Offense in Florida |
| Sebelius Shell Game? |
| Today's Polls, 7/30 |
| VP Contenders by the Numbers |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls (AM Edition), 7/31 |
| My Least Favorite Argument |
| Opportunity Cost |
| Today's Polls (PM Edition), 7/31 |
| Sebelius Shell Game? |
| Today’s Polls (AM Edition), 7/31 |
| Obama Outperforming Kerry Among Nearly All Demographics |
| Opportunity Cost |
| The Real Britneygate Controversy |
| Yesterday's Polls (8/1 Catchup) |
| McCain Just Says No to Indiana |
| Today's Polls, 8/3 |
| Is Obama Underachieving? |
| Should Obama Have Asked for More Debates? |
| Today's Polls, 8/4 |
| Evan Bayh: Latent Liberal? |
| Senate Polling Weekly Update, 8/5 |
| ABC Dealt Out Of Presidential Debates |
| FAQ Updated |
| Is GA-Sen in Play? |
| The Oprah Effect, Revisited |
| Today's Polls, 8/5 (Procrastinator Edition) |
| Today's Polls, 8/6 |
| Bubba By Numbers |
| On Likely Voters and the Long Tail |
| The Gang of 10: Obama's Checkmate? |
| Today's Polls, 8/7 |
| ABC Dealt Out Of Presidential Debates |
| A Perspective on Mazen Asbahi |
| Media Alert |
| Today's Polls, 08/08/08 |
| Bubba By Numbers |
| 538 on <span style="font-style: italic;">Countdown</span> |
| Obama Leads Better Than 3:1 in Field Offices |
| 538 on Countdown |
| Obama and the Youth Vote |
| The Grinch Who Stole The Olympics |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: The Persistent Myth of the Bradley Effect |
| The Georgia Conflict and the Case for Clark |
| Today's Polls, 8/11 |
| Why Howard Wolfson is Out of a Job |
| The Persistent Myth of the Bradley Effect |
| Black Vote Was Invisible To Penn |
| Senate Polling Weekly Update, 8/12 |
| Today’s Polls, 8/11 |
| Bayhdenkabelius |
| Road to 270: Indiana |
| Today's Polls, 8/12 |
| Today's Polls, 8/13 |
| Warner Will Be Dems' Keynoter [UPDATED] |
| How McCain is Winning on the Economy |
| Sending Out an S.O.S. |
| Today's Polls, 8/14 |
| Today’s Polls, 8/13 |
| Bayhdenkabelius |
| Friday Afternoon Leftovers |
| Today's Polls, 8/15 |
| What a Convention Bounce Looks Like |
| Sister Kissing Update |
| Today's Polls, 8/16 |
| <img src="http://img.tradekey.com/lang/en/images/updated_icon.gif" /> On Obama-Clinton |
| <img src="http://img.tradekey.com/lang/en/images/updated_icon.gif" /> Pastor Warren Contradicts Self on 'Cone of Silence' |
| Democratic VP Buyer's Guide |
| Saddleback |
| Sister Kissing Update |
| Pastor Warren Contradicts Self on ‘Cone of Silence’ |
| Did McCain's Campaign Just Confirm Andrea Mitchell's Reporting? |
| Late Nite Polls, 8/17 |
| Today's Polls, 8/18 |
| Yet Another Veep Thread: Nobody Knows Anything |
| On Obama-Clinton |
| Do Voters Like Joe Biden? |
| Fox's Pro-Choice Poison Pill? |
| Online Chat at 1 PM Eastern / 12 PM Central |
| Today's Polls, 8/19 |
| Yet Another Conegate Thread |
| Today’s Polls, 8/18 |
| Yet Another Veep Thread: Nobody Knows Anything |
| Biden: A New Trick for Old Fogeys |
| I'm Hearing... |
| McCain Now Winning Small Majority of Simulations |
| Obama-SebeliBus? |
| Today's Polls, 8/20 |
| Today’s Polls, 8/19 |
| I’m Hearing… |
| <img src="http://img.tradekey.com/lang/en/images/updated_icon.gif" /> Unabashed Media Whoring (and Open Thread) |
| The Case for Hillary |
| Today's Polls, 8/21 |
| McCain Now Winning Small Majority of Simulations |
| Today’s Polls, 8/20 |
| Unabashed Media Whoring (and Open Thread) |
| <img src="http://img.tradekey.com/lang/en/images/updated_icon.gif" /> The One Tea Leaf Worth Reading |
| Senate Polling Weekly Update, 8/22 |
| Something Was The Matter With Kansas (Technical) |
| Today's Polls, 8/22 |
| Today’s Polls, 8/21 |
| The One Tea Leaf Worth Reading |
| "Clear-Eyed Pragmatist": The Obama Brand Has Come Full-Circle |
| <img src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3177/2789218680_9133fff4c4_o.png" /> It's Official: Obama Picks Biden |
| Can Biden Out-Hillary Hillary? |
| Today's Polls, 8/23 |
| Today’s Polls, 8/22 |
| It’s Official: Obama Picks Biden |
| CNN Poll Suggests Trouble for Obama, But Omits Proper Context |
| Is There a Clinton Backlash? How About A Backlash Backlash? |
| Today's Polls, 8/24 |
| “Clear-Eyed Pragmatist”: The Obama Brand Has Come Full-Circle |
| House Effects In Da House |
| Should Obama Expect a Big Convention Bounce? |
| Today's Polls, 8/25 |
| Today’s Polls, 8/24 |
| CNN Poll Suggests Trouble for Obama, But Omits Proper Context |
| Live from Denver, It's Hillary Clinton! (DNC thread #2) |
| Live from Denver, It's Tuesday Night! |
| The NASCAR Dad of 2008? It Might be The Perot Voter. |
| Today (DNC Day 2) |
| Today's Polls, 8/26 |
| Barack Obama Officially Becomes Democratic Nominee for Presdient |
| DNC Day 3: Live Twitter Thread |
| Today's Polls, 8/27 |
| The NASCAR Dad of 2008? It Might be The Perot Voter. |
| Live from Denver, It’s Tuesday Night! |
| Live from Denver, It’s Hillary Clinton! (DNC thread #2) |
| Gallup Shows an Initial Convention Bounce for Obama |
| Live from Invesco: From the Cheap Seats |
| Live from Invesco: From the Press Box |
| DNC Day 3: Live Twitter Thread |
| ...and Speaking of Head-Fakes |
| <img src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3177/2789218680_9133fff4c4_o.png" /> Multiple Reports: Palin is VP Nominee |
| Palin VP Rollout Liveblog |
| Palin: It's Not Really About Experience |
| Sarah Palin Thoughts, Revised and Extended |
| Source: It's Not Pawlenty |
| Today's Polls, 8/29 |
| …and Speaking of Head-Fakes |
| Multiple Reports: Palin is VP Nominee |
| Today's Polls, 8/30 |
| Women View Palin More Skeptically than Men |
| Sarah Palin Thoughts, Revised and Extended |
| Today’s Polls, 8/29 |
| Gustav Could Be Boon to GOP |
| Open Discussion: The Convention Bounce Adjustment |
| Today's Polls, 8/31 |
| Sarah Palin: Compassionate Conservative? |
| Today's Polls, 9/1 |
| What's Wrong With This Sentence? |
| Open Discussion: The Convention Bounce Adjustment |
| Senate Polling Weekly Update, 9/2 |
| The Essential Difference |
| Today's Polls, 9/2 |
| Guess Who's a Celebrity Now? |
| In Alaska, Everyone's An Oil Baron |
| Palin's Goal Tonight: No Potatoe |
| Palin's Overreach |
| Palin's Speech: Second Thoughts |
| Today's Polls, 9/3 |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: <img src=http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3177/2789218680_9133fff4c4_o.png> Today's Polls, 9/4 |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: Cognitive Dissonance |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: SurveyUSA: Palin's Speech Comparable to Obama's |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: The <span style="font-style: italic;">Next</span> Next President |
| Palin’s Speech: Second Thoughts |
| Cognitive Dissonance |
| The Next Next President |
| Today’s Polls, 9/4 |
| SurveyUSA: Palin’s Speech Comparable to Obama’s |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: <img src=http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3177/2789218680_9133fff4c4_o.png> Crackin' a Trackin' Poll |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: Palin, Biden Less Popular than Cheney |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 9/5 |
| Post-Convention Six-Pack |
| Crackin’ a Trackin’ Poll |
| Palin, Biden Less Popular than Cheney |
| Today's Polls, 9/6 |
| Today’s Polls, 9/5 |
| Cracking a Tracking Poll: Theory and Practice |
| Patience, Poll-Watchers |
| Today's Polls, 9/7 |
| Bonus Polling Update, 9/8 |
| Did McCain Really Get the Bigger Bounce? |
| First Look At The New Electoral Map |
| Obama Needs Better Ads |
| Response Bias and the Shy Tory Factor |
| Today's Polls, 9/8 |
| Cracking a Tracking Poll: Theory and Practice |
| Ron Paul To Appear on Montana Ballot |
| The Mommy Quotient |
| Today's Polls, 9/9 |
| Bonus Polling Update, 9/8 |
| 'Lipstick' Ad Doesn't Move Focus Group's Votes |
| Are Pollsters Oversampling Republicans? |
| Is It Really About Race? Some Evidence from North Carolina. |
| Lipstick |
| Pollopoly |
| The Road To McCain Runs Through Palin |
| Today's Polls, 9/10 |
| Today's Polls, 9/11 |
| What's the Matter with Michigan? |
| ‘Lipstick’ Ad Doesn’t Move Focus Group’s Votes |
| No Actual Bearcats Were Harmed in the Making of This Post |
| Today's Polls, 9/12 |
| The Media Has Been Thrown Off Its Game |
| Today's Polls, 9/13 |
| Today's Polls, 9/14 |
| Was Obama's <strike>50</strike> 22-State Strategy a Mistake? |
| Was Obama’s 50 22-State Strategy a Mistake? |
| Nightmare on Wall Street? |
| Today's Polls, 9/15 |
| Palin's Favorability Numbers Eroding |
| Today's Polls, 9/16 |
| Morning Musings |
| Today's Polls, 9/17 |
| Today’s Polls, 9/16 |
| Colorado Rates as Most Important State |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 9/18: Obama Regains the Lead |
| Obama Pulls Ahead in Electoral College Projection |
| Outside-the-Box Ad Moves Voter Sentiment |
| State of the Race: Is McCain In Trouble? |
| Today’s Polls, 9/18: Obama Regains the Lead |
| 12th Amendment Update: Tie Probability Continues to Increase |
| Bad Math and the Bradley Effect |
| The Dow Rebounds |
| Today's Polls, 9/19 |
| Outside-the-Box Ad Moves Voter Sentiment |
| <img src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3177/2789218680_9133fff4c4_o.png" /> Estimating the Cellphone Effect: 2.8 <strike>2.2</strike> Points |
| On Race-Based Voting |
| Senate Polling Update, 9/20 |
| Today's Polls, 9/20 |
| Estimating the Cellphone Effect: 2.8 2.2 Points |
| Today's Polls, 9/21 |
| On the Road: Durango/Cortez, Colorado |
| Allocating the Undecideds |
| RCP and the R2K Tracking Poll |
| The Debates: Somebody's Wrong |
| Today's Polls, 9/22 |
| Today’s Polls, 9/21 |
| Debates May Not Be Decisive After All |
| Oops |
| Today's Polls, 9/23 |
| Today’s Polls, 9/22 |
| The Debates: Somebody’s Wrong |
| Intrade Betting is Suspicious |
| Today's Polls, 9/24 |
| Oops |
| Today’s Polls, 9/23 |
| AM Trackers Suggest Poor Reaction to McCain Announcement |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: Ann Selzer on Youth & Minority Turnout |
| McCain Doubling Down on Debate? |
| Remains Of The Day |
| Selzer & Co: Correction on Cellphones |
| Today's Polls, 9/25 |
| Today’s Polls, 9/24 |
| Debate Goals |
| McCain's Mistake? |
| Today's Polls, 9/26 |
| Ann Selzer on Youth & Minority Turnout |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: Why Voters Thought Obama Won |
| How You Know It's Crunch Time |
| Today's Polls, 9/27 |
| Why Voters Thought Obama Won |
| McCain Is Stuck With Palin |
| Senate Projections, 9/28 |
| Today's Polls, 9/28 |
| Big Media Me |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: Swing District Congressmen Doomed Bailout |
| More Bailout Thoughts |
| News Accounts May Overstate Public Opposition to Bailout |
| Pelosi Tips the Scales? |
| Today's Polls, 9/29 |
| McCain Is Stuck With Palin |
| Swing District Congressmen Doomed Bailout |
| More Media |
| Today's Polls, 9/30 |
| What Obama Accomplished at the Debate |
| What's Wrong With the Battleground Poll? |
| Today’s Polls, 9/29 |
| Debategate |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/1 |
| In Contrast to House, Few Signs of Electoral Politics in Senate Bailout Vote |
| Nate with Dan Rather, and Keith Olbermann |
| What Obama Accomplished at the Debate |
| Today’s Polls, 10/1 |
| Washington Post Chat Starts Momentarily |
| Post-VP Debate Thoughts |
| RCP Follow-Up |
| Real Credibility Problems |
| Technical Difficulties... |
| Today's Polls, 10/2 |
| In Contrast to House, Few Signs of Electoral Politics in Senate Bailout Vote |
| Technical Difficulties… |
| McCain and Michigan |
| Today's Polls, 10/3 |
| VP Debate a Ratings Winner |
| Post-VP Debate Thoughts |
| Dueling Minnesota Polls |
| Senate Polling Update, 10/4 |
| Today's Polls, 10/4 |
| Today’s Polls, 10/3 |
| Today's Polls, 10/5 |
| Why It (Probably) Won't Work |
| Senate Polling Update, 10/4 |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/6 |
| In Georgia, Small Improvements in Black Voter Participation May Make Big Difference |
| What's Different About This Map? |
| Today's Polls, 10/7 |
| Tonight |
| What State Do You Want to See Polled? |
| Today’s Polls, 10/6 |
| 21-2 |
| Post-Debate Thoughts, or Lack Thereof |
| Today's Polls, 10/8 |
| What is Obama's Ceiling? |
| Ayers Attacks Piquing Curiosity, But Perhaps Little Else |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: Uncommitteds and Persuadables in Historical Perspective |
| Senate Projections, 10/9 |
| Today's Polls, 10/9 |
| Why You Don't Bluff |
| 21-2 |
| Uncommitteds and Persuadables in Historical Perspective |
| Debate May Have Helped Obama |
| Does McCain Have Cooties? |
| Guest Column: Will Bin Laden Strike Again? |
| Today's Polls, 10/10 |
| Ayers Attacks Piquing Curiosity, But Perhaps Little Else |
| <img src=http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3177/2789218680_9133fff4c4_o.png> Did McCain Just Walk Into a Trap? |
| Today's Polls, 10/11 |
| Does McCain Have Cooties? |
| Did McCain Just Walk Into a Trap? |
| Another Way to Look at McCain's Odds |
| Are McCain's Ads "Dangerous"? |
| Patience |
| Today's Polls, 10/12 |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: If The Bradley Effect is Gone, What Happened To It? |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: Mini Polling Update |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/13 |
| Is Drudge Priming a McCain "Reboot" Narrative? |
| Patience |
| Today’s Polls, 10/12 |
| Another Way to Look at McCain’s Odds |
| Mini Polling Update |
| If The Bradley Effect is Gone, What Happened To It? |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: CBS/NYT Poll Preempt |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: Senate Projections, 10/14 |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/14 |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: Voter Registration in North Carolina |
| Today’s Polls, 10/13 |
| Voter Registration in North Carolina |
| Senate Projections, 10/14 |
| CBS/NYT Poll Preempt |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: Obama Dominating Among Early Voters in Five Swing States |
| Today's Polls, 10/15 |
| Today’s Polls, 10/14 |
| Obama Dominating Among Early Voters in Five Swing States |
| Today's Polls, 10/16 |
| Where McCain Lost It |
| Bad Spin Watch: Drudge Touts Weeks-Old, Web-Based Poll |
| Busy, Busy, Busy |
| Scrap the Squigglys |
| Today's Polls, 10/17 |
| "Real" America Looks Different to Palin, Obama |
| Today's Polls, 10/18 |
| General Powell Endorses Obama |
| Today's Polls, 10/19 |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: Senate Projections, 10/20 |
| The Wikipedian Candidate |
| Today's Polls, 10/20 |
| Senate Projections, 10/20 |
| Exceptionally Tacky Omnibus Apology |
| POLL SHOCK: 51 OBAMA, 49 MCCAIN WITH LIKELY TODDLERS |
| Sorry, Jim, the PUMAs are Dead |
| Today's Polls, 10/21 |
| Tracking Poll Primer |
| 538 Goes Mobile |
| Must Reads |
| Some Likely Voter Models are Suspect |
| The Bradley Effect, Revisited |
| Today's Polls, 10/22 |
| McCain Brings Hope to Pennsylvania |
| AM Polls Show Surprisingly Large Leads for Obama |
| Obama Passes The Rove Threshold? |
| Prop 8 a Toss-Up |
| Today's Polls, 10/23: McCain on Life Support |
| What's Wrong With This Picture? (a.k.a. Nate the Poll Nazi Strikes Again) |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: Senate Projections, 10/24 |
| How The West Wasn't Won |
| The Number That Explains It All |
| Today's Polls, 10/24 |
| Today’s Polls, 10/23: McCain on Life Support |
| Senate Projections, 10/24 |
| McCain's 10-Day Plan |
| Road to 270: New Jersey |
| Today's Polls, 10/25 |
| 538 on The Colbert Report |
| A Pollster Responds |
| Today's Polls, 10/26 |
| Bradley Effect? Or Elephant Effect? |
| Ted Stevens Found Guilty on All Counts |
| Today's Polls, 10/27 |
| What Would 'Tightening' Look Like? |
| Yes, Virginia, You Are Obama's Firewall |
| 1-in-10,000,000 |
| Nerds Gone Wild! |
| Senate Projections, Baked Alaska Edition |
| The Black Turnout Surge, Already In Progress |
| The Weather |
| Today's Polls, 10/28 |
| What Would ‘Tightening’ Look Like? |
| Florida Flashback |
| In Oregon, Turnout is Down, But Especially in Red Counties |
| Obamarama Liveblog |
| The Myth of the 'Lag' |
| The Undecideds |
| The Black Turnout Surge, Already In Progress |
| <img src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3177/2789218680_9133fff4c4_o.png" /> Field Poll Shows Close Call on Gay Marriage Ban |
| Anatomy of a Polling Disaster |
| Are the Polls Lowballing Jim Martin (GA-Sen)? |
| Election Night Preview with Dan Rather |
| Road to 270: Illinois |
| Today's Polls, 10/29 |
| Today's Polls, 10/30 |
| Obamarama Liveblog |
| Irrational Exuberance in Arizona? |
| McCain's Mountain of a Problem |
| Quick Notes |
| Senate Projections, 10/31 |
| Today's Polls, 10/31 |
| Trick or Treat |
| Today’s Polls, 10/30 |
| Field Poll Shows Close Call on Gay Marriage Ban |
| On Pennsylvania Being "In Play" |
| Pennsylvania Sanity Check |
| Senate Projections, 11/1 |
| Technical Note |
| Today's Polls, 11/1 |
| Today’s Polls, 10/31 |
| Trick or Treat |
| 538 RSS Feed Widget |
| Google Traffic Suggests McCain Not Grabbing Voters' Attention |
| House Effects in Action |
| Reassurance for Dems in NBC/WSJ Survey |
| Road to 270: Michigan |
| The Cellphone Effect, Continued |
| Today's Polls, 11/2: Afternoon Edition |
| What A McCain Win Looks Like... |
| On Pennsylvania Being “In Play” |
| What A McCain Win Looks Like… |
| Coming Attractions |
| Election Night Viewers' Guide |
| Is Dixville Notch Predictive? |
| National Polls Magically Converge! |
| Obama Marches Toward Victory |
| Today's Polls, 11/3 (PM Edition) |
| Today's Polls, 3 AM Edition (11/3) |
| The Cellphone Effect, Continued |
| Reassurance for Dems in NBC/WSJ Survey |
| 10:06 PM Update |
| 2,077,765 |
| 3?? |
| 8:15 PM Update |
| AP Calls Florida for Obama |
| AP Calls New Hampshire |
| Election Night Thread, 6:00 PM |
| FINAL Senate Projection, 11/4: 7-8 Democratic Pickups Likely |
| Indiana II... |
| Indiana... |
| Meta |
| Obama to Become Next President |
| Omaha |
| Outstanding States |
| Republicans Likely to Hold MS-Sen, KY-Sen |
| Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls |
| Today's Polls and Final Election Projection: Obama 349, McCain 189 |
| Virginia... |
| What Will We Know by 7 PM? |
| Wow |
| Is Dixville Notch Predictive? |
| Indiana… |
| A Few Notes From the National Exit Poll |
| In Nation's Capital, Pandemonium After Obama Victory |
| The Popular Vote |
| What In The Hell Happened in Alaska? |
| Indiana II… |
| 8:15 PM Update |
| AP Calls New Hampshire |
| Meta |
| Virginia… |
| Obama to Become Next President |
| 10:06 PM Update |
| Republicans Likely to Hold MS-Sen, KY-Sen |
| 3?? |
| Omaha |
| AP Calls Florida for Obama |
| Wow |
| Outstanding States |
| Obama Likely to Win Omaha Electoral Vote |
| Obama Outperforms Kerry Among Virtually All Demographics |
| Site Problems |
| What In The Hell Happened in Alaska? |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: Obama Wins Omaha, NE Electoral Vote; Final Tally Looks to be 365-173 |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: Uncounted Votes May Push Begich Past Stevens |
| Obama Wins Omaha, NE Electoral Vote; Final Tally Looks to be 365-173 |
| Big City Barack |
| The Contact Gap: Proof of the Importance of the Ground Game? |
| Uncounted Votes May Push Begich Past Stevens |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: 2010 Senate Rankings, Part I: Races #21-#35 |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: Obama's Electoral Cushion |
| Big City Barack |
| Obama’s Electoral Cushion |
| 2010 Senate Rankings, Part I: Races #21-#35 |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: Franken's Odds of Winning Recount May Be Long -- or Short |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: More Minnesota Madness |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: Whistling Past Bubba |
| Franken’s Odds of Winning Recount May Be Long — or Short |
| Whistling Past Bubba |
| More Minnesota Madness |
| Ballot Design Quiz |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: Minnesota Recount: Number of Discrepancies May Be Low |
| Electoral Projections Done Right: Prop 8 Myths |
| Minnesota Recount: Number of Discrepancies May Be Low |
| Prop 8 Myths |
| Is Jackson Jr. Illinois' Choice? |
| Stevens' Lead Shrinks to 971 Votes, With Many Yet to be Counted |
| Was 2008 A Realigning Election? Ask Me In Eight Years. |
| A Few More Hillary Hypotheticals |
| Georgia Runoff Will Be Tough on Pollsters |
| Dartmouth Study: Minnesota Undervotes Should Favor Franken |
| Is Secretary of State a Stepping Stone? |
| What's Holding Up Missouri? |
| A Few Notes on the Media |
| For Obama, Will Familiarity Erode Contempt? |
| Why The Networks Haven't Called Missouri |
| An Interview with John Ziegler on the Zogby "Push Poll" |
| Dean Defends Lieberman Decision, Speaks of "Mandate for Reconciliation" |
| Zogby Engages in Apparent Push Polling for Right-Wing Website |
| For Obama, Will Familiarity Erode Contempt? |
| Dear Democrats: If You Must Blame, Blame Obama |
| [UPDATED] In Minnesota Recount, Both Candidates are Losers Thus Far |
| [UPDATED] On First Day of Recount, Franken Gains Net of 43 Votes on Coleman |
| An Interview with John Ziegler on the Zogby “Push Poll” |
| Did Talk Radio Kill Conservatism? |
| Minnesota: Is Franken Being Too Nice? |
| Napolitano Reportedly Picked for Homeland Security, Casting Doubt on Potential Senate Run |
| [UPDATED] On First Day of Recount, Franken Gains Net of 43 Votes on Coleman |
| Ballot Challenges On Rise in Minnesota |
| Coleman's Lead Down to 120 as Challenges Skyrocket |
| Friday eCommerce Interlude |
| The Final Words (For Now) on Zieglergate |
| Amid Epidemic of Challenges, Coleman Appears to Expand Lead |
| The Ghosts of 1993 |
| Coleman’s Lead Down to 120 as Challenges Skyrocket |
| Projection: Franken to Win Recount by 27 Votes |
| Amid Epidemic of Challenges, Coleman Appears to Expand Lead |
| Coleman Challenges Increasing Exponentially |
| Dubious in Delaware |
| Illinois: Let the People Decide |
| [UPDATED] State Pegs Coleman Lead at 172 Votes; Challenges Increase for Fourth Straight Day |
| Georgia: Martin Stuck in Neutral? |
| Mini-Sota Update, Day 6 |
| Minnesota Challenged Ballot Primer |
| Obama's Agenda & The Difference Between Tactics & Strategy |
| Dubious in Delaware |
| [UPDATED] State Pegs Coleman Lead at 172 Votes; Challenges Increase for Fourth Straight Day |
| Mini-Sota Update, Day #7 |
| Minnesota Canvassing Board Punts on Rejected Absentee Ballots |
| Obama Popular Vote Margin Largest Ever for Non-Incumbent |
| Mini-Sota Update, Day 6 |
| Mini-Sota Update, Day #7 |
| Minnesota Challenged Ballot Examples |
| The Population and the Popular Vote |
| 2010 Senate Rankings, Part II: Races #11-#20 |
| Clinton's Appointment Triggers Game of Electoral Chairs in New York |
| Franken's Good Day Shifts Odds on Recount |
| Statistical Models Now Show Coleman as Slight Favorite |
| Did Mel Martinez Just Do the GOP a Favor? |
| Missing Ballots in Minneapolis? |
| Saxby Shows Republicans The Way Forward? |
| Who Are The Swing Senators? |
| Missing Ballots in Minneapolis? |
| Fridays with Ziegler |
| Quick Thoughts from Kansas |
| Minnesota May Be Heading Toward Resolution -- In Court |
| Minnesota May Be Heading Toward Resolution — In Court |
| 2010 Senate Rankings, Revised and Extended |
| 58 Better Than 59? (A Probably Stupid Theory) |
| The Wrong Ads and the Wright One |
| Illinois: What Happens Next |
| Senate Might Not Have Authority to Reject Blago Appointment |
| The Blagojevich Fallout |
| What, No Oprah? |
| The Wrong Ads and the Wright One |
| Dems' Generic Ballot Advantage Dwindling |
| What Does Harry Reid Want? |
| What Jake Tapper Doesn't Know About What Obama Knew |
| Illinois: What Happens Next |
| Senate Might Not Have Authority to Reject Blago Appointment |
| Appointed Senators Rarely Win Re-Election |
| What Does Harry Reid Want? |
| Obama Approval Ratings Not Dented by Blagojevich Scandal |
| Minnesota Canvassing Board Sides with Franken on Two Key Issues, Sending Coleman to Court |
| The Auto Bailout Vote: a Preview of Coming Attractions? |
| Bayh's Blue Dogs: Bane or Boon? |
| On Making Mitch McConnell Wet His Pants |
| Are the Republicans Still a National Party? |
| Colorado's Salazar To Head Interior, Creating Another Vacancy for Democrats |
| Coleman v. Minnesota Canvassing Board |
| Hold Your Horses, Minnesota |
| NY-Sen: Where's Larry King When You Need Him? |
| 88 Reasons Not to Move to New York |
| Brett Favre Beats Lizard People |
| In Minnesota, Six Inches of Confusion |
| Minnesota Lunchtime Update: It's Gonna Be Close |
| Hold Your Horses, Minnesota |
| Coleman Sues on Duplicate Ballot Claim, Seeking to Prevent Certification of Recount |
| Franken Appears Likely to Lead After Challenge Phase |
| Franken is Winning, and Coleman Knows It |
| In Minnesota, Six Inches of Confusion |
| Colorado: Denver Mayor More Electable than Blue Dogs? |
| Franken is Winning, and Coleman Knows It |
| Franken Claims to Have Lead of 35-50 Votes |
| Fox News Finds Typo, Blames Liberal Conspiracy |
| Franken Maintains 48-Vote Lead |
| In Employee Free Choice Act, a Numbers Game for Labor |
| Mental Recession? |
| A Passing Thought On Rick Warren |
| Franken to Coleman: Where's The Beef? |
| Like Smaller Government? How About 98 Senators? |
| Fox News Finds Typo, Blames Liberal Conspiracy |
| Mommy, What's an Environmentalist? |
| Supremes Deny Coleman on Duplicate Ballots |
| Like Smaller Government? How About 98 Senators? |
| A Day Without Politics |
| On Transition Website, Obama Promises More to Gay Community |
| Red States Gaining Ground, but Migration Slowing Down |
| Kennedy Struggling To Win Over Key Demographic: Women |
| Mapping the New Congress |
| Coleman Not in Giving Mood on Absentees |
| You Are A Republican! A Socratic Dialogue on the Stimulus Bill |
| Blago Will Try To Seat Senator, But Reid Objects |
| Obama FTW |
| On The Importance of the Middle Class: Lessons of the Housing Bust |
| Reid Has Few Ways to Block Burris Appointment |
| Coleman Not in Giving Mood on Absentees |
| Franken May Be Ceding Ground on Absentee Ballots |
| More Evidence on Middle-Class Belt Tightening |
| Reid's Constitutional Argument on Burris |
| Reid Has Few Ways to Block Burris Appointment |
| Mapping the New Senate |
| Bennet, Denver Schools Chief, Reportedly Chosen as Colorado's Next Senator |
| More Reading on Burris, and Another Attempt at Legal Analysis |
| Pick Your Poison, Arlen |
| Mapping the New Senate |
| Franken Jumps Out to 225-Vote Lead on Strength of Absentee Ballots |
| In Minnesota, End of the Beginning Starts Today |
| Is Jesse Jackson Jr. Electable? |
| Can Franken Give Burris His Daily Affirmation? |
| Tim Kaine Reportedly To Head DNC |
| Did the <span style="font-style:italic;">Wall Street Journal</span> Fire their Fact-Checkers? |
| Where's the Roland Burris Poll? |
| Why Are There No Black Senators? |
| Tim Kaine Reportedly To Head DNC |
| Did the Wall Street Journal Fire their Fact-Checkers? |
| Be Careful Where You Get Your Stimulus |
| Most Americans Oppose Seating Burris, But Reid's Options are Few |
| Senate Rankings, January 2009 Edition |
| The Good News for Coleman… |
| Where’s the Roland Burris Poll? |
| Party Like It’s 538! |
| On Harry's Hindsight |
| Palin v. Murkowski Cold War Heating Up? Polls Show Contradictory Results. |
| Senate Rankings, January 2009 Edition |
| Shameless Self-Promotion |
| Missouri's Bond Will Retire, Creating Showdown in Show-Me State |
| On Stimulus, It's Easy Being Green |
| What Are the Chances of a Depression? |
| Blago Impeached; Tide Turning (Again) on Burris? |
| Daddy, Where Do Senators Come From? |
| Obama's <span style="font-style:italic;">Price is Right</span> Negotiating Strategy? |
| On Stimulus, It’s Easy Being Green |
| Obama’s Price is Right Negotiating Strategy? |
| Obama's Indifference on Tax Cuts |
| Counties to Coleman: What Part of 'No' Didn't You Understand? |
| Intellectual Dishonesty (Gasp!) from a Conservative Economist |
| Is There a Serious Conservative Argument Against the Stimulus? |
| Roland Burris is My Senator |
| Should the Democrats Fear Rob Portman? |
| Is There a Serious Conservative Argument Against the Stimulus? |
| Do Retiring Republicans Mellow Out? |
| Palin's Popularity Pickle |
| Roland Burris is My Senator |
| Signs of Democratic Coattails in SCHIP Vote? |
| What's David Paterson Waiting For? |
| A Webpage Someone Else Should Start... |
| History May -- or May Not -- Judge Bush More Kindly |
| Signs of Democratic Coattails in SCHIP Vote? |
| A Webpage Someone Else Should Start… |
| History May — or May Not — Judge Bush More Kindly |
| Have Republicans Lost Their Way on Taxes? |
| Is Coleman's Goal a Do-Over? |
| Is Tom Coburn a Closet Progressive? |
| Is Tom Coburn a Closet Progressive? |
| Barack Obama: The First Urban President? |
| FiveThirtyEight Hits Washington |
| Obama: Highest Initial Approval For Elected President? |
| A Proud Moment for America |
| Flavor of the Day |
| A Brief Comment on the 50-State Strategy |
| Did Caroline Ever Really Want It? |
| Shades of Roosevelt in Obama's Address |
| Flavor of the Day |
| Progressive Democrats Vote for Bailout; Blue Dogs Don't |
| What is Coleman Fighting For? |
| Did Caroline Ever Really Want It? |
| Is Kennedy's Loss Conservatives' Gain? |
| Feingold Introduces 28th Amendment |
| Obama: More Political Capital Than Reagan? |
| Minnesota Recount Trial Begins Momentarily |
| Smarter than the Average Bears? |
| Feingold Introduces 28th Amendment |
| Alabama ♥s Obama |
| Fili-Buster Watch |
| So Just Who <span style="font-style:italic;">Did</span> Vote For The Bailout? |
| Time To Give Up on "Bipartisan" Stimulus? |
| So Just Who Did Vote For The Bailout? |
| BAM! POP! POW! House Debates Stimulus Bill |
| Just Five Red States Left? |
| Stimulus Passes House With NO Republican Support -- Zip, Zilch, Nada |
| Stimulus Passes House With NO Republican Support — Zip, Zilch, Nada |
| For House Republicans, Zero is the Loneliest Number |
| The Republican Death Spiral |
| The Republican Death Spiral, in Graphic Form |
| Could Roland Burris Be Re-Elected? |
| Should Democrats Beware Republicans Bearing Gifts? |
| For Democrats, Best Choice May be a Republican |
| Michael Steele's Got Game |
| Do the Republicans Have the Votes for a Stimulus Filibuster? |
| Absentee Ballots Unlikely to Save Coleman |
| The Most Powerful Women in America |
| The Stimulus: Still Popular After All These Weeks |
| The Paradox of Political Capital |
| The Proliferation of "Pork" |
| Absentee Ballots Unlikely to Save Coleman |
| In This Corner, Sarah Palin... |
| On Stimulus, Democrats Beating GOP On Party Unity |
| The Proliferation of “Pork” |
| In Declining Approval Ratings, Lessons for Obama |
| In This Corner, Sarah Palin… |
| On Stimulus, Democrats Beating GOP On Party Unity |
| In Declining Approval Ratings, Lessons for Obama |
| Senate Rankings, February 2009 Edition |
| Should Obama Have Asked For More? |
| A [Bleeping] Valuable Thing |
| Did a Four-Letter Word Save the Stimulus? |
| One-Two-Three-Four: What is Bipartisanship Good For? |
| Stimulus Compromise Overcomes Senate Filibuster, 61-36 |
| Should Obama Have Asked For More? |
| Taking Louisiana By Storm? |
| Why We're Probably in For a Long Recession |
| One-Two-Three-Four: What is Bipartisanship Good For? |
| Give Geithner a Break |
| Obama Sells Stimulus; People Buy |
| A Thousand Little Pieces |
| The Political Specter-um |
| Republican Governor Panders on Gay Rights |
| The Two Progressivisms |
| George F. Will Takes on Science, Loses Credibility |
| Sound and Fury, Signifying -- What, Exactly? |
| The Real Roland Burris Question |
| Will Omitted Key Context in Ice Age Quote |
| IL-05: Feigenholtz Looks Like Favorite in Emanuel's Old District |
| Reality Check: Republicans Had No Intention of Compromise on Stimulus |
| The Clinton Economic Record and Rising Tides |
| Sound and Fury, Signifying — What, Exactly? |
| For Entertainment Purposes Only |
| Things I Think We Think We Know About the Banking Crisis... |
| Reality Check: Republicans Had No Intention of Compromise on Stimulus |
| Things I Think We Think We Know About the Banking Crisis… |
| BREAKING: Beer No Longer Recession-Proof |
| Senate Rankings Interim Update |
| re: Mortgage Bailout |
| For Entertainment Purposes Only |
| Heroes and Goats |
| Land of a Thousand Liebermans |
| Sun Rises, Market Falls |
| Americans Growing Kinder to Bud |
| Oscars Liveblog |
| Introducing... |
| Some Post-Oscar Thoughts on Forecasting |
| Americans Growing Kinder to Bud |
| Oscars Liveblog |
| Introducing… |
| A Starry-Eyed Look at the 2012 Republican Field |
| Steele's Idle Threat |
| Jindal Versus the Volcano |
| FiveThirty ... Nine? |
| FiveThirty … Nine? |
| IL-05: Rahm's Middle Finger |
| Is Jindal's Demise Gingrich's Gain? |
| Snow Day |
| IL-05: Quigley Appears Headed for Congress |
| The Manic-Depressive Market |
| Predicting What You Already Knew |
| Rush is the Least of the Republicans' Problems |
| When Will Voters Blame Obama? |
| re: Minnesota |
| IL-05: Quigley Appears Headed for Congress |
| What the Stock Market <span style="font-style:italic;">Really</span> Thinks About the Economy |
| When Will Voters Blame Obama? |
| What the Stock Market Really Thinks About the Economy |
| Hoping He Fails? |
| Senate Rankings, March 2009 Edition |
| <span style="font-style: italic;">Dow 36,000</span> Guy Accuses Obama of Sabotaging Economy |
| Do Americans Want to Nationalize the Banks? |
| Dow 36,000 Guy Accuses Obama of Sabotaging Economy |
| How's He Doing? |
| The Missing $1,000,000 Tax Bracket |
| A Nation Neither United Nor Divided |
| The Life and Times of EFCA, Part I |
| The Missing $1,000,000 Tax Bracket |
| The Best Argument You'll Read for Bank "Nationalization" |
| A Nation Neither United Nor Divided |
| Americans Losing Their Faith in Faith ... And Everything Else |
| Americans Losing Their Faith in Faith … And Everything Else |
| Yes, Obama's Approval Ratings Are Declining. What Did You Expect? |
| Gold(farb) Star for Effort |
| Technical Question |
| EFCA's Backers Still Have Work To Do |
| The New Terri Schiavo? |
| Why Was AIG's Stock Up 66% Today? |
| AIG: How a Meme Spreads |
| NASDAQ Now Up Under Obama Presidency |
| The New Terri Schiavo? |
| Cherry-Picker-in-Chief |
| GOP Leadership Splits As Bailout Tax Passes House |
| NCAA Hoops Projections |
| Why AIG Paid the "Bonuses" |
| Health Care > Environment? It's the Economy, Stupid. |
| Throw Out Baby, Bail Out Bathwater |
| Presidential Results by Congressional District |
| Is the AIG Bonus Blowout Hurting Obama? |
| Generic Ballot Blues |
| The Stock Market Rally and the Geithner Plan |
| The Mortgage Monster and the Blame Game |
| The Worst Pollster in the World Strikes Again |
| This is Not a Liveblog |
| In Defense of Vijay, The Wall Street Banker |
| The Bonus Tax is Dead; Long Live the Bonus Tax |
| This is Not a Liveblog |
| A Good Time To Die? |
| The Real Republican Road to Recovery |
| The Right Way to Fix Wall Street's Pay |
| In Defense of Vijay, The Wall Street Banker |
| Democrat Murphy Now Favored in NY-20 Special Election? |
| The Real Republican Road to Recovery |
| Why Is Dianne Feinstein Stiffing Labor? |
| FiveThirtyEight Joins East Coast Media Elite |
| No Electoral College in 2012? |
| GM's Problems are 50 Years in the Making |
| What the NY-20 "Tie" Means |
| Revisionist History in NY-20 |
| Should the Democrats Primary Chris Dodd? |
| Will Iowans Uphold Gay Marriage? |
| Why Marijuana Legalization is Gaining Momentum |
| Whigs, Federalists Strongly Differ on Support for Obama |
| Government Spending, Equality and Development |
| Irrationality versus Naivete |
| NY-20: Absentee Ballot Distribution Appears to Favor Murphy (D) |
| The Pick-Your-Poison Paradox |
| Gay Marriage in the District: Danger Will (and Steve) Robinson? |
| Why I’ve Been Ignoring the Minnesota Recount |
| Fact and Fiction on Gay Marriage Polling |
| The Have-Nots Aren’t Having It |
| Senate Rankings, April 2009 Edition |
| Do Blue State Have Higher Unemployment Rates? |
| What Would a “Bipartisan” Obama Look Like? (Hint: A Lot Like the One We’re Seeing) |
| The Partisan Public (Exhibit #14612) |
| Is Norm Coleman Getting His Money’s Worth? |
| No PirateBump™ for Obama |
| Carrots and Sticks for Specter: A Model for Democrats? |
| Battle of Saratoga, Frivolous Challenges Won’t Save Tedisco |
| How Many Attended The Tea Parties? |
| “Tea Party” Protests Appear to Draw At Least 250,000 |
| Tea Party Nonpartisan Attendance Estimates: Now 300,000+ |
| Hey Rick, Can We Talk? |
| NY-20: Challenged Ballots Will Aid Murphy; No Apprent Path to Victory for Tedisco |
| When Does ‘Close’ Become Too-Close-to-Call? |
| Are the Republicans Going Galt? |
| When Hope is the Enemy of Change |
| The Pope and the Planet |
| Senate Fundraising All-Stars |
| Why Doesn’t Mike Huckabee Get More Respect? |
| Messing with Texas |
| Race and the 2008 Election, Revisited |
| Murphy Wins in NY-20: Let the Spin Begin! |
| The Environmental Inverted Pyramid |
| Were the Tea Parties Really a Libertarian Thing? |
| Explaining the Contradictory Torture Polling |
| Specter’s Switch More Insult Than Injury to GOP |
| What Kind of Democrat Will Arlen Specter Be? |
| But Now He’s *Our* No-Good, Dirty Rotten Bastard |
| Six Degrees of Swine Flu |
| Party of No(body)? |
| Two National Polls, for First Time, Show Plurality Support for Gay Marriage |
| Bunning Retirement Might Not Save GOP in Kentucky |
| Is Sestak the Right Choice for the Left? |
| The Republican Party ID Decline, Revisited |
| Supreme Court Picks: Little Peril for Presidential Approval |
| Senate Rankings, May 2009 Edition |
| What the [Bleep] Do We Know? |
| The Obama Bull Market? |
| In Which I Defend a Republican Pollster |
| Is T-Paw Taking One for the Team? |
| Is America Still a Car Culture? |
| Sestak-Type Intraparty Challenges are Rare, But Not Without Precedent |
| It Ain't Easy Being a Governor |
| Why Didn’t Ridge Run? |
| Hooray! The Second Derivative of the Unemployment Rate Improved! |
| Bush May Haunt Republicans for Generations |
| Elevated Risk of Tweets |
| Mike Huckabee’s Flawed Logic on the GOP’s Future |
| Forecast: On Climate Change, Cooler Temperatures Bring Hotter Air |
| Should Democrats Be Rooting for Charlie Crist? |
| The Decline of The Conservative Intellectual |
| Why Obama Wants the Olympics |
| Will Crist Get Toomeyed? |
| Is Public Opinion Changing on Abortion? |
| Whip Count: Gay Marriage Faces Uphill Odds in New York Senate |
| Arlen Specter Now 67% Democrat |
| Travel Advisory |
| Blogosphere Reality Has a Liberal Bias |
| CNN Poll: Record Support for Roe v Wade? |
| Random, Pretentious Observations from Europe |
| Current Senators Voted 36-11 to Confirm Sotomayor in 1998 |
| Sotomayor Is Reportedly Obama's Court Pick |
| Hispanics Back Gay Marriage at Same Rates as Whites |
| News Flash: Car Dealers are Republicans (It's Called a Control Group, People) |
| Grandmother of World’s 23rd Best Economist Posthumously Offended by Sonia Sotomayor’s Spending Habits; Will Obama Withdraw Nomination? |
| omg wuz adam robbed? |
| Washington Times: Supremes Uphold Sotomayor Opinions at Above-Average Rate |
| Dodd Vulnerable to Primary Challenge |
| Roberts > Sotomayor > Alito? |
| Operation Gringo: Can the Republicans Sacrifice the Hispanic Vote and Win the White House? |
| Operation Gringo, Cont'd. |
| On Moon Landings, Michelle Malkin, P-Values, the Clintons, and the Magical Mystery Dealergate Conspiracy Theory |
| GOP Has Always Been Dominated by White Voters |
| Senate Rankings, June 2009 Edition |
| Pro-Life States Have Lower Abortion Rates |
| Gubernatorial Power Rankings: Crist, Freudenthal Top List |
| Is Gay Marriage Coming or Going in NY State? |
| Get Ready for Hockey Dad! |
| McAuliffe : Virginia :: Dean : Iowa? |
| Liberal Blogger Matt Yglesias Wants to Tax Your Beer! I Want to Tax Drunk Drivers. |
| New York's Gillibrand Has Become Lockstep Liberal |
| The Palin Paradox: Women More Likely to be Elected in Male-Dominated Districts |
| Has The Geithner Plan Succeeded? |
| Following Leadership Coup, Gay Marriage Probably DOA in New York State [UPDATED: Or Is It?] |
| Starbucks Beats Peet’s? |
| N.R.A. Muscle Saves 538, Blocks D.C. Voting Rights |
| Paterson Now Less Popular Than Spitzer |
| How To Get 63% of Americans to Support Gay Marriage. (Maybe.) |
| American Medical Association Has Long Donated to Opponents of Health Care Reform |
| Obama Approval Rating Exceeds 50% in States Containing 445 Electoral Votes |
| Statistical Report Purporting to Show Rigged Iranian Election Is Flawed |
| Iranian Election Results by Province [UPDATED] |
| Polling Predicted Intimidation -- and Not Necessarily Ahmadinejad's Victory |
| Polling Predicted Intimidation — and Not Necessarily Ahmadinejad’s Victory |
| On Health Care, Who's Hooked on Special Interest Money? |
| If He Did It |
| Don't Expect Ensign to Resign |
| Personal Democracy Forum, June 29th-30th |
| Ahmadinejad's Rural Votes |
| Karroubi's Unlucky 7's? |
| Congress: A Good Place for Health Care To Die |
| The Ayatollah's Flawed Logic |
| Public Support for the Public Option |
| Worst. Damage Control. Ever. |
| Lazy Sunday Linkage: Public Option, Iran, Nate v. Karl Rove |
| Voting With Their Feet? |
| Worst. Damage Control. Ever. |
| Special Interest Money Means Longer Odds for Public Option |
| Another Iranian Oddity |
| George F. Will Admits Public Option Will Cut Costs |
| Good Morning, Tehran |
| Sanford to Minneapolis? (Nope -- Argentina?) |
| Sanford to Minneapolis? (Nope — Argentina?) |
| Why is the Washington Post Testing Republican Messages on Health Care? |
| Obama’s (Unintentionally?) Brilliant Strategy on Cap-and-Trade |
| Sanford: More Resignation Pressure than other Pantsless Pols |
| The Environmental Indifference Point |
| Cap-and-Trade, State-by-State |
| Sex scandals, le style Français |
| Cap-and-Trade Bill Passes House |
| How To Destroy (Almost) Half the Planet for the Low, Low Price of Just 5% of Global GDP |
| Wyden Not? |
| Minnesota Supreme Court Rejects Coleman’s Claims, Rules Election Was Fair |
| Who Voted for the Climate Bill? (And Why?) |
| Obama Has a Health Care Plan? |
| This Post Brought to You by Poker |
| Is Mike Huckabee the New Jesse Jackson? |
| Destroying the Planet, Part II |
| Why (Some) Liberals Hate Sarah Palin |
| Explainin' Palin: All of The Above? |
| How Can the Climate Bill Get to 60 Votes? |
| Poker Update: I'm #441 |
| Oh No, Ohio? |
| A Republican Hot Streak? |
| Third and Unfortunately Last Poker Update |
| In Illinois, Dems Dodge Bullet; GOP Shoots Selves in Foot |
| Taxing the Rich: The (Politically) Smart Way to Pay for Health Care |
| Why Democrats Have No Time to Waste |
| Senate Rankings, July 2009 Edition |
| Will Kay Bailey Hutchison Play Texas Hold 'Em? |
| Blue Dog Districts Need Health Care More than Most |
| Palin: All Tail, No Head |
| On Health Care, Bipartisanship without Compromise? |
| A Challenge to Climate Change Skeptics |
| Rumors of the Demise of ObamaCare Have Been Greatly Exaggerated |
| Palin Mini-Scandal: Not the "Other Shoe" |
| The Case Against the Case Against Taxing Health Benefits |
| House (not Senate) May be Barrier to Health Care |
| Arlen Specter Just Can't Shake Pat Toomey |
| Climate Challenge Update |
| A Note to Blue Dog Democrats on Health Care and Pascal's Wager |
| Obama Approval Ratings Straw Poll |
| The Healthcare Timeout is Fine. |
| Since Primary Challenge, Specter Voting with Dems 97% of the Time |
| The Baucus Bill's Bad Math |
| Governor Palin, You're No Hillary Clinton |
| A Brief Note on the Safety of the Democratic Majority in the House |
| The Baucus Bill’s Bad Math |
| A Harvard Professor Says Some Stupid Things |
| Obama, Democrats Flunking Health Care Sales Pitch |
| Yes, the GOP's Still Out of Touch |
| The Only Winning Move is Not To Play |
| Health Care Bill Has Little Margin for Error in House |
| Obama States and Unemployment: Confusing Cause and Effect |
| The Difference Between Birthers and Truthers |
| The Real Problem with The Senate's Small-State Bias |
| Nothing Sucks Worse Than The Post Office -- Except for Kinko's |
| The Enthusiasm Gap, Revisited |
| The Difference Between Birthers and Truthers |
| Nothing Sucks Worse Than The Post Office — Except for Kinko’s |
| If Republicans Were Serious About Deficits... |
| If Republicans Were Serious About Deficits… |
| Hispanic Votes Not Swaying GOP on Sotomayor |
| The NRA's Pyrrhic "Victory" on Sotomayor |
| Economic Headlines You Won't See on The Drudge Report |
| Mel Martinez to Resign Senate Seat; Charlie Crist to Pull Own Hair Out |
| The NRA’s Pyrrhic “Victory” on Sotomayor |
| Obama Has Cut Taxes for 98.6 Percent of Working* Households** |
| Why Unemployment (Probably) Won't Hit 10 Percent |
| Not All Socialist Countries are Alike |
| Are The Health Care Protests Working? And Are Liberals Helping Them? |
| Occam's Razor and Health Care |
| Are The Health Care Protests Working? And Are Liberals Helping Them? |
| Likely Voters and Unlikely Scenarios |
| Life After the Death of the Public Option |
| Grand Unified Obama Critique |
| How Many Votes Does the Public Option Have? How Many Does it Need? |
| Grand Unified Obama Critique |
| The Essence of the Health Care Endgame |
| For Democrats, a "Moment of Clarity" on Health Care? |
| Are Progressives on Tilt? |
| How to Poll on the Public Option |
| Senate Rankings, August 2009 Edition: Republicans Movin' On Up |
| Ted Kennedy, 1932-2009 |
| Could a Republican Win Ted Kennedy's Senate Seat? |
| Poll: Most Don't Know What "Public Option" Is -- Including Pollsters |
| Poll: Most Don’t Know What “Public Option” Is — Including Pollsters |
| Ford is Also Trading in Its Clunkers for Cash |
| Colorado Primary Challenge Looks Like Win-Win for Dems |
| 50 Percent is Not a Magic Number |
| Do Americans Really Hate Flying? Or Really Love Driving? |
| On Public Option, "Not No" Doesn't Equal "Yes" |
| The Biggest Moment of His Presidency? Well, Yes*. |
| Do Blue Dogs Hate the Public Option Just Because Liberals Like It? |
| What Today's Unemployment Report Means |
| A Trigger -- With Teeth? |
| A Trigger — With Teeth? |
| As Unemployment Rises, Support for Organized Labor Falls |
| Dep't of Stupid Headlines: L.A. Times Edition |
| Analysis: Public Option Is Likely Popular in Most Blue Dog Districts |
| Liveblog: Obama's State-of-The-Healthcare Speech |
| State-of-the-Healthcare Speech: Final Thoughts |
| Closing the Gap on Health Care |
| Size Matters; So Do Lies |
| When You Assume, You Make a Mess Out of Your Poll |
| A Bounce? Yes. A Game-Changer? We'll See. |
| Baucus Compromise Bill Draws Enthusiastic Support of Senator Max Baucus (D-MT) |
| IBD/TIPP Doctors Poll Is Not Trustworthy |
| Democrats 1, Red Sox 0 |
| Is Public Opinion on Health Care Locked In? |
| Gay Marriage Is Fading as 'Values' Focal Point |
| Don't Count Health Care Chickens Yet |
| Health Care Is Hazardous to Poll Numbers for Grassley, Other Senators |
| Glenn Beck, Post-Modern Conservative |
| A Few More Questions for a Sketchy Pollster |
| Strategic Vision Polls Exhibit Unusual Patterns, Possibly Indicating Fraud |
| Comparison Study: Unusual Patterns in Strategic Vision Polling Data Remain Unexplained |
| Are Oklahoma Students Really This Dumb? Or Is Strategic Vision Really This Stupid? |
| Strategic Vision Office Is Located in Rural Blairsville, GA, Not Atlanta As Firm Claims |
| Monday Mish-Mash: Strategic Vision, Las Vegas, and String Theory |
| The Attention Deficit |
| Bad News for Public Option? |
| An Open Letter to Strategic Vision CEO David Johnson |
| Senate Rankings, September 2009 Lightning Round Edition |
| Analysis: Gay Marriage Ban is Underdog in Maine |
| Disband the IOC! |
| The Weekly Standard's John McCormack is a Socialist or Something |
| In New Jersey, Two Glasses Half-Empty |
| Question Order May Bias Fox News Health Care Polling |
| Delaware Leaps to #1 in Senate Rankings; Is 60-Seat Majority Doomed? |
| Opt Me Out of Public Option Purism |
| Would Rush Limbaugh Hurt the St. Louis Rams? |
| Why The Insurance Industry is Fighting Mad |
| Just Words |
| Honey, Does This Governor Make Me Look Fat? |
| The Price of Party Unity |
| Can Offshore Drilling Save the Climate Bill? |
| Lieberman Flirting with Political Suicide |
| In Defense of Rush Limbaugh |
| Christie Shouldn't Count on "Daggett Effect" To Save Him |
| Geoengineering is No Free Lunch -- A Comment on SuperFreakonomics |
| Geoengineering is No Free Lunch — A Comment on SuperFreakonomics |
| The Not-So-Bad-Case Scenario |
| Turnout is the Maine Issue |
| Why The (Impure) Public Option is (Probably) Gaining Momentum |
| The Issue That Could Fracture Both Right and Left |
| Arguments Against Gay Marriage Literally Stop Making Sense |
| The Public Option Playing Field, in Two Dimensions |
| 60 v. 61? |
| Despite Claims, Anti-Gay Group in Maine More Dependent on Out-of-State Funds |
| 2009 Elections Preview: NYC Mayor |
| Reality Check: NY-23 Poll May Seek to Alter, Not Reflect, Reality |
| On Being Wrong About the Public Option |
| Somebody Buy Joe Lieberman a Puppy |
| Zogby Again Polls on Misleading Question, This Time with Racial Tinge |
| 2009 Elections Preview: Virginia Governor |
| Man vs. Machine in New Jersey |
| 2009 Elections Preview: NY-23 — A Toss-Up, Indeed, Between Owens, Hoffman |
| Scozzafava's Supporters Like Obama, Dislike Hoffman and Owens |
| Senate Rankings: October 2009 Quick-and-Dirty Edition |
| Three Big Questions in NY-23 |
| Local vs. National Conservative Grassroots |
| 2009 Elections Preview: Maine Question 1 (Gay Marriage) |
| 15 Clarifying Questions For Close Elections |
| 2009 Elections Preview: New Jersey Governor |
| NY-23 Re-Re-Re-Reconsidered |
| The Republicans’ Branding Problem |
| Gubernatorial Races a Poor Yardstick |
| 2009 Elections Preview: CA-10 |
| 2009 Elections Preview: Washington Referendum 71 (Domestic Partnership) |
| Election Night Overview |
| Deeds v. Obama in Virginia |
| Still Too Close to Call in New Jersey (Update: Apparently Not?) |
| NY-23 Results by County; Democrat Owens Appears Poised for Victory |
| What Happened and Why? |
| All Politics is Local, Ctd. |
| New Jersey ≠ Virginia |
| Independent Voters and Empty Explanations |
| Skipping Elections, Strategic Vision Has Not Polled Since Controversy Arose |
| Unemployment Hits 10.2 Percent |
| House Likely to Pass Health Care Bill Tonight |
| Real Oklahoma Students Ace Citizenship Exam; Strategic Vision Survey Was Likely Fabricated |
| Many Previously Pro-Choice Dems Voted for Stupak Amendment |
| Is the Prognosis For Health Care Getting Better or Worse? The Market Weighs In. |
| For the Soccer Fans Among You |
| Time for Dems to Panic? |
| How the Swine Flu Has Spread |
| Monday Miscellany |
| Why Palin Will Run for President in 2012 |
| 10 Reasons That Sarah Palin Could Win the Republican Nomination |
| Dems Lucky There Aren’t More Lincolns |
| It’s [Still] The Economy, Dumbass |
| I Read Through 160,000,000 Bytes of Hacked Files And All I Got Was This Lousy E-Mail |
| Lincoln To Vote for Motion to Proceed, But Threatens Filibuster on Public Option |
| Is The Public Option Un-Un-Dead? |
| Advice To Blanche Lincoln: Speak Softly, But Carry Firm Position on Health Care Reform |
| Democrats Damned If They Do; Damnder If They Don’t |
| Best Idea of the Day: Climate Change Futures Markets |
| How Bad Could Obama Screw Up and Still Beat Sarah Palin? |
| The Case for Climate Futures Markets, Ctd. |
| Some New Rules for Frequent — and Infrequent — Fliers |
| Charlie Crist is Not a Good Sharer |
| Intolerance, European Style |
| This is Great News!!! For Progressives!!! |
| A Cop-Killer’s Impact on 2012 |
| The Speech Isn’t the Story |
| Poll Finds Widespread Apathy Among Black Voters |
| World Cup Draw Preview |
| Maine Revisited: Is There a Backlash Against Same-Sex Marriage? |
| World Cup 2010 Advancement Probabilities |
| Improving Unemployment Numbers Make Political Case for Jobs Bill Stronger, Not Weaker |
| 538 –> Copenhagen |
| In Polls, Much Opposition to Health Care Plan Is From Left |
| Copenhagen Dispatch |
| Despite Protests, Some Reason for Optimism in Copenhagen |
| My Last Words on the Public Option |
| Countries Most Vulnerable to Climate Change Are Least Aware of Threat |
| If An Economy Recovers and No One Cheers It, Does It Make a Sound? |
| Greg Mankiw, Stimulus Critic: So Wrong He’s Actually Right |
| Joe Lieberman: Smarter Than Br’er Fox |
| How To Nuke the Filibuster |
| The Public Option Fight May Not Have Been Winnable |
| Why Progressives Are Batshit Crazy to Oppose the Senate Bill |
| 20 Questions for Bill Killers |
| Health Care: The Elevator Pitch |
| 20 Questions, 20 Responses |
| An Uncharitable Take on a Liberal Poll |
| Nelson Pledges Support For Health Care Bill, Making Passage Likely |
| An Extremely Premature Retrospective on the Kill Bill Strategy |
| Can’t Tell the Conservatives and Liberals Apart Without a Program |
| The Insidious Myth of Reconciliation |
| Could Obama Have Sold the Public Option? |
| Insurance Stocks Rise on News of Health Care Deal; What’s It Mean? |
| Another Left-Right Convergence |
| A Bit More Context on Health Insurer Stocks |
| 2009’s Most Valuable Democrat Is… |
| Senate Passes Historic Health Care Reform Bill on Party Line Vote |
| Health Insurance Stocks Decline on News of Senate Passage of Reform Bill; Have Underperformed Market Since Start of Week |
| Postscript |
| Happy Holidays from 538! |
| For Pelosi, Many Paths to 218 |
| The Odds of Airborne Terror |
| The Senate's Bill Helps Working Families |
| The Internet is Underrated: A Note on Activism, Populism and Polarization at the End of the 'Aughts |
| Election 2012: Ben Nelson (D-NE) Trails Jesus in Reelection Bid |
| Health Insurance and the Family Budget: Highly Affordable for Some, More Affordable for All |
| Senate Rankings, December 2009 Edition |
| Is Rasmussen Reports Biased? |
| The Skies Are as Friendly as Ever: 9/11, Al Qaeda Obscure Statistics on Airline Safety |
| Putting the [R] in [R]asmussen? |
| Wicked Awesome Thoughts on Massachusetts Special Election |
| Rassachusetts: Why a Poll May be Terribly, Horribly Wrong -- And Why Democrats Should be Worried Anyway |
| Rassachusetts: Why a Poll May be Terribly, Horribly Wrong — And Why Democrats Should be Worried Anyway |
| North Dakota: #1 With a Bullet |
| Dodd Joins Dorgan on Sidelines; Blumenthal Enters as Heavy Favorite |
| 2010 Senate Races Present Rewards, but Higher Risks for Democrats |
| This is Great News! For Sarah Palin! (Really) |
| Rasmussen, Teabaggers, and Type II Error |
| Battle of the Massachusetts Polls |
| Massachusetts Chart of the Day |
| As Spotlight Shines on Reid, Re-Election Prospects Dim |
| Divorce Rates Higher in States with Gay Marriage Bans |
| Massachusetts: It's Not Just About Turnout |
| With or Without Reid, Poll Suggests Trouble For Dems in Nevada |
| OK, It’s a Toss-Up |
| Liberal Website Helpfully Tests Messages Against Vulnerable Democrat, Finds Them Wanting |
| One Massachusetts Poll That Democrats Shouldn’t Panic About |
| 538 Still Rates Massachusetts as Toss-up |
| A Statistical Ray of Hope for Coakley |
| 25% ≠ 0% |
| 538 Model Posits Brown as 3:1 Favorite |
| Obama Approval Under 50 Percent Among Massachusetts Likely Voters? |
| 538 Still Rates Massachusetts as Toss-up |
| Massachusetts Model Mayhem |
| Trendspotting in Massachusetts |
| Are Coakley Voters Too Ashamed to be Polled? |
| Defying Odds, Republican Brown Becomes Next Senator from Massachusetts |
| Six Quick Things |
| White House Readies Gamble On High-Speed Ping-Pong |
| 25% ≠ 0% |
| Post-Partisanship Epic Fail? |
| Six Quick Things |
| Defying Odds, Republican Brown Becomes Next Senator from Massachusetts |
| Let’s Play the Blame Game! |
| Is Health Care Reform the new Iraq War? |
| Will the Base Abandon Hope? |
| Senate Rankings: Post-Masspocalypse Edition |
| Health Care Polls: Opinion Gap or Information Gap? |
| 1. Reconciliation! 2. ??? 3. Profit! |
| Massachusetts Liked Universal Health Care Before It Voted Against It |
| Senate Rankings Update: Delaware, Indiana, Nevada |
| The White House’s Brain Freeze |
| Why Obama Shouldn’t Panic |
| Evan Bayh To Oppose Procedure That Makes Evan Bayh Unimportant |
| What Obama Shouldn't Learn from Steve Jobs |
| After Massachusetts, Road to 218 is Long and Winding |
| Obama’s SOTU: Clintonian, In a Good Way |
| Arlen Specter May Be Screwed, But He Probably Isn’t THIS Screwed |
| What Killed Obama's Approval Numbers? |
| Democrats Need a Proactive Messaging Strategy |
| In Illinois, Both Sides Exaggerate Electability Arguments |
| Better to be Strong and Wrong -- Especially When You're Actually Right |
| Better to be Strong and Wrong — Especially When You’re Actually Right |
| The Health Care Information Gap: More Information Needed |
| Recount All But Assured in Illinois Gubernatorial Primary |
| McGOP: The Virtues and Vices of Sameness |
| A Few Questions about #QuestionTime |
| Go For It! Saints Understand Value of Aggressive Play-Calling |
| Super Bowl Thread: Take the Points |
| Sarah Palin Needs Help |
| Go For It! Saints Understand Value of Aggressive Play-Calling |
| Republicans -- Not Obama -- More Often on Wrong Side of Public Opinion |
| Republicans — Not Obama — More Often on Wrong Side of Public Opinion |
| A First Look at Palin's Primary Math |
| Freedom's Just Another Word for Nothing Left to Lose |
| Republicans are Conservative -- but are they this Conservative? |
| Republicans are Conservative — but are they this Conservative? |
| Democrats Don't Know the Way Forward |
| White House May Actually Articulate Specific Position on Health Care |
| Consensus Olympic Medal Count Projections: Day 3 |
| Bayh, Relative to His State, Was Valuable to Democrats |
| Republicans Must Defend Senate Seats Too |
| Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 4 |
| Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 6 |
| Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 5 |
| Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 6 |
| Can You Trust Those FireDogLake Polls? |
| Parallels to 1994 Are Superficial, but Results May be the Same |
| Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 7 |
| Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 8 |
| Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 9 |
| Is 56 is the New 60? |
| There's More Than One Way to Lose a Majority |
| Canada Not Owning the Podium |
| Is 56 is the New 60? |
| Hindsight and Health Care |
| Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 11 |
| A Few Final Thoughts on the Ublicpay Optionway |
| Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 12 |
| Did the Blair House Summit Change Anything? |
| The Myth of the Incumbent 50% Rule |
| Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 14 |
| Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 15 |
| Winter Olympics Balance of Power Shifting Toward U.S., Asia |
| Obama’s No F.D.R. — Nor Does He Have F.D.R.’s Majority |
| Lincoln Logs a Challenger as Halter Tries to Halt Her — But are Democrats Spinning their Wheels? |
| In Texas, Anti-Washington Trumps Anti-Incumbent |
| Popularity of Health Care Bill Unchanged Since House Vote in November |
| Is Obamacare a Favorite to Pass? |
| Charlie's Sorry Choices |
| Senate Race Rankings Update, 3/10 |
| House Effects Render Poll-Reading Difficult |
| Lame Excuses on Public Option, but no “Scam” |
| Stats Say Kucinich may be Least Valuable Democrat |
| Some Cautious Optimism on Health Care Whip Count |
| Two Pictures Tell the Story on Health Care Debate |
| Which Democrats are under Primary Pressure on Health Care Vote? |
| Progressives’ Strategic Choices on Health Care Likely Made Little Difference |
| Time to Start Counting Yes Votes |
| Why Liberals (Suddenly) Love the Health Care Bill |
| NCAA Tournament Odds -- and Some Advice on Pool Strategy |
| NCAA Tournament Odds — and Some Advice on Pool Strategy |
| The Progressives' Bad Bluff |
| Time to Start Counting Yes Votes |
| It's Complicated! |
| The Margolies-Mezvinsky Goes To… |
| Passage Almost Certain, But Number of Votes Unclear |
| Stupak to Vote Yes? |
| UPDATED: Whip Counts Now Show Democrats With 216+ Solid Yes Votes |
| Rules Vote Points Toward ~220 Yeas On Final Passage |
| On the Appeal of Repeal |
| Health Care Finale Liveblog |
| Obama’s Share Determined Dems’ Votes on ObamaCare |
| The Fourth Branch |
| Trading Markets See Ambiguous Impact from Health Care Passage |
| If There’s A Bounce, Will It Hold? |
| Senate Forecast Update, 3/24 |
| Are Democrats Better Off for Having Passed Health Care? Yes — and No. |
| Can Democrats "Win" The Midterms? |
| Incredible Izzo Again Defies Odds |
| Is Florida Still a Swing State? |
| It's Not About Race -- Unless I Say It Is! |
| It’s Not About Race — Unless I Say It Is! |
| No Evidence that Red States are Lagging on Census |
| Study Claiming Link Between Stimulus Funding and Partisanship is Manifestly Flawed |
| Veronique de Rugy Responds to Critique of Stimulus Study |
| Att’n: City-Dwellers |
| A Teacup Half-Full |
| Democrats are Enthusiastic; Republicans are More So |
| A Theory of Relativity |
| Generic Ballot Points Toward Possible 50+ Seat Loss for Democrats |
| Supremes Get Ready for Encore |
| A Theory of Relativity |
| Do Manhattanites Get Their Money's Worth? |
| Newt Gingrich: Dominated Strategy? |
| Additional Information on New York Neighborhood Ratings |
| Specter Remains Vulnerable in Primary |
| Romney, Not Paul, Fares Best in '12 Matchups |
| Tea Party Bears Beck's Imprint |
| Use of Likely Voter Model Does Not Explain Rasmussen "House Effect" |
| Double Down by the Numbers: Unhealthiest Sandwich Ever? |
| Do Democrats Have a Dodd Problem? |
| How Weak Is the GOP's 2012 Field? |
| Rubio's Path Easiest, Crist's Challenging, in Potential Three-Way Race |
| Senate Forecast Update: Little Chance of GOP Takeover, but Dem Position Remains Precarious |
| Labour Danger: Uniform Swing Calculations May Understate Risk to Incumbents |
| Stop, Drop and Poll |
| Utah’s Bennett May Be First Incumbent Casualty |
| Kaine: “Republicans Are the Obstruction People” |
| On That Other Three-Way Race... |
| Post-UK Debate Scenarios |
| Strong Second by LibDems Could Help Tories |
| On That Other Three-Way Race… |
| Nerdfight: UK Election Model Methodology |
| Nerdfight: Episode IV — Return of the Tories |
| Conservatives Climb To 308 in UK Seats Projection; Labour 198, LibDems 113 |
| Dino Rossi: #51? |
| Final UK Projection: Conservatives 312, Labour 204, LibDems 103 |
| UK Election Day Scenarios |
| UK Election Returns: Overnight Blog |
| Telephone Polls Closer to Mark in UK |
| Utah Will Have New Senator |
| Sestakular! |
| On Kagan's Minority Hiring Record |
| UK Forecasting Retrospective |
| Value Over Replacement Justice |
| Mollohan Loss Costly for Democrats, Scary for Incumbents |
| White House Case for Specter Support Unpersuasive |
| Don't Take Polling Literally, Part #39916 |
| In Backing Insurgents, Republicans Face November Risks |
| Polls, Intangibles Favor Sestak |
| In Connecticut, Dems May Need to Draft New Candidate |
| Benchmarking PA-12 |
| Election Night Homethread (5/18/10) |
| What Tuesday Really Meant |
| Soft Landing for Blumenthal? |
| Paulapollooza |
| Homework Assignment |
| Lost in Hawaii |
| Study: Excluding Cellphones Introduces Statistically Significant Bias in Polls |
| Might This Be a Good Time for Instant Runoff? |
| Blast from Rasmussen’s Past |
| A New Poll of 500 Political Junkies... |
| A New Poll of 500 Political Junkies… |
| Wisconsin Senate: Feingold 46%, Smithee (R) 44% |
| Southern Primaries Often Confound Pollsters |
| Zogby Broke the Internet, But it Can be Fixed |
| Is Gulf Disaster Spilling into Obama's Approval Ratings? |
| FiveThirtyEight to Partner with New York Times |
| Pollster Ratings v4.0: Methodology |
| Pollster Ratings v4.0: Results |
| Pollster Scorecard: SurveyUSA |
| Pollster Scorecard: InsiderAdvantage (Be Careful What You Wish For) |
| Are You Smarter Than a George Mason University Economics Professor? |
| Primary Night in America / 6.8.2010 |
| On Transparency, Hypocrisy, and Research 2000 |
| Arkansas Was Tough Target for Unions, Netroots |
| World Cup Simulated Odds |
| Yes, Virginia (and Kansas and Missouri -- but not you, Baylor), there is an Equilibrium Solution to the Great Conference Shakeout |
| Yes, Virginia (and Kansas and Missouri — but not you, Baylor), there is an Equilibrium Solution to the Great Conference Shakeout |
| NPR Survey of Swing Seats is Consistent with Generic Ballot Polling |
| FiveThirtyEight Seeking NYC-based Intern |
| A Note on Scheduling |
| FiveThirtyEight Establishes Process for Pollsters to Review its Database of Their Polls |
| World Cup Odds Update |
| Top Corporate Donor to Barton Is Partner of BP on Deepwater Horizon |
| For Information Purposes Only |
| Is Africa Failing? |
| Why Aren't There More Pollster Ratings? |
| World Cup Knockout Round Scenarios |
| Ratings on Obama Oil Spill Performance are Flattening Out, For Now |
| Why We Have U.S.-Ghana at Even Money |
| In Step Back for Journalist, Two Steps Backward for Journalism |
| Senator Byrd is Ill; A Note on West Virginia's Vacancy Laws |
| Sen. Robert Byrd Dead at 92 |
| [UPDATED] WV Special Election is Unlikely Until 2012 |
| Senate Forecast: After Primaries, Picture Slightly Improved for Dems |
| BREAKING: Daily Kos to Sue Research 2000 for Fraud |
| My Own Suspicions About Research 2000 |
| Research 2000 Issues Cease & Desist Letter to FiveThirtyEight |
| Nonrandomness in Research 2000's Presidential Tracking Polls |
| How Research 2000 Could Make Its Life Easy |
| Kos Legal Filing Raises Further Questions about Research 2000 |
| Is Research 2000 Merely Mangling Its Data -- Rather Than Fabricating It? |
| Is Research 2000 Merely Mangling Its Data — Rather Than Fabricating It? |
| A Note to John Zogby |
| re: LeBron |
| Can Manchin Save West Virginia for Democrats? |
| An Additional Point or Two about West Virginia |
| Did LeBron James Just Cost Himself $150 Million? |
| Pentagon Spends $4.4 Million to Test Troops' Gaydar |
| It Is Too the Economy! |
| Gay Marriage Chart-of-the-Day |
| ARG, My Brain Hurts! |
| Senate Forecast, 7/18: Republican Outlook Improves with Focus on Likely Voter Polls |
| Is a Poll Scientific if it Excludes More Than Half the Population? |
| Bunker Mentality at 1600 Pennsylvania? |
| There Is No Such Thing As a Free Shot at a Senate Seat |
| Democrats Shouldn't Spare Pennies for Lincoln |
| Bunker Mentality at 1600 Pennsylvania? |
| My Life on the J-List |
| The Broadus Effect? Social Desirability Bias and California Proposition 19 |
| Cap-and-Trade is Dead; Long Live Cap-and-Trade |
| It's Like Mathematically Unpossible for Republicans to Win the House, or Something |
| Introducing Partisan Propensity Index (PPI) |
| Polls, Reporting on "Ground Zero Mosque" May Mislead |
| A Street-Level View of the "Ground Zero Mosque" |
| Conservative, Liberal Sites Both Fueling Race "Conversation" |
| Will Gay Marriage, Once Again, Become a Campaign Issue? |
| Kennedy, Olson and the Right Side of History |
| Roadmap to Nowhere |
| Washington's Muteness on Prop 8 a Sign of Cynicism, Not Progress |
| How Much Revenue Would a Millionaires' Tax Raise? |
| As Liberals Lose Hope, the White House is Losing Its Cool |
| CNN Poll is First To Show Majority Support for Gay Marriage |
| Opinion on Same-Sex Marriage Appears to Shift at Accelerated Pace |
| Automated Poll Produces Starkly Different Results on Gay Marriage Question |
| Obama Defense of "Ground Zero Mosque" Less Risky Than it Seems |
| ESPN Umpire Study Blows The Call |
| More on FiveThirtyEight's Moving Plans |
| How Stable is the Generic Ballot? |
| When Good Enough Isn't Good Enough: On House Forecasts and the Generic Ballot |
| Moving Day |
| Tuesday Night Live |
| Welcome (and Welcome Back) to FiveThirtyEight |
| New Forecast Shows Democrats Losing 6 to 7 Senate Seats |
| A Closer Look at Alaska |
| In Nevada, No One Is Someone to Watch |
| With Increase in Partisanship, Fewer Surprises Likely in Governors’ Races |
| The Democrats’ New Normal |
| How Did Democrats Get Here? |
| In Singling Out Murkowski, Tea Party Chose Wisely |
| G.O.P. Poised to Control 30 Governor Seats |
| Governor Forecasts: Understanding the Model |
| Democrats Aren’t Running From Health Care. But What Are They Running On? |
| Republicans Have One-in-Four Chance to Claim Senate Majority, Model Shows |
| The Republicans’ 50-State, 428-District Strategy |
| G.O.P. Has 2-in-3 Chance of Taking House, Model Forecasts |
| 2 Insurgents Could Hurt G.O.P. Chances for Senate Takeover |
| Paladino and New York’s Republicans |
| The Polls Have Tightened? Not So Fast |
| Live Blogging Primary Night |
| Voters Deliver a Reminder to Republicans (and Pundits) |
| Gubernatorial Forecast Update |
| After Delaware, G.O.P. Senate Takeover Appears Much Less Likely |
| House Forecast Update: Embracing the Uncertainty |
| Murkowski Can Win as Write-In |
| More on Murkowski’s Math |
| Assessing the G.O.P. and the Tea Party |
| Poll Showing Gains by Paladino Excluded Key Candidate From Ballot |
| Why Generic Ballots May Underestimate Democrats |
| Brown Gains Ground in California; Few Other Changes in Gubernatorial Forecast |
| Now Here’s a Shocking Poll: Cuomo 49, Paladino 43 |
| Senate Forecast: Republican Takeover Chances Improved, but Democrats Are Building Pacific Firewall |
| Cuomo’s Coattails and Gillibrand’s Race |
| The Bias of the Generic Ballot: It’s Complicated |
| Calculating the Castle Write-In Bid |
| Holding Pattern in House Forecast |
| Analyzing Whitman’s Questions About California Poll |
| Plan B: Connecticut and W. Virginia Create New Outline for G.O.P. Senate Takeover |
| Forecast Update: Republican Governors Are Well Positioned |
| The Uncanny Accuracy of Polling Averages*, Part I: Why You Can’t Trust Your Gut |
| Alaska Polls Suggest Murkowski Has Upside as a Write-In |
| The Uncanny Accuracy of Polling Averages*, Part 2: What the Numbers Say |
| The Uncanny Accuracy of Polling Averages*, Part II: What the Numbers Say |
| G.O.P. Stays on Upswing in Senate Forecast |
| House Forecast: As October Dawns, November’s Math Still Strong for G.O.P. |
| The Uncanny Accuracy of Polling Averages*, Part III: This Time, It’s Different? |
| The Uncanny Accuracy of Polling Averages*, Part IV: Are the Polls Getting Worse? |
| Odds Against Third-Party Bid Not as Long as They Seem |
| ‘Likely Voter’ Gap Favors G.O.P. by 6 Points; Gallup’s Model Sees It Bigger |
| Understanding and Misunderstanding the ‘Enthusiasm Gap’ |
| Shifting Tides in Governors’ Races: Brown Now 3-to-1 Favorite |
| Illinois Voters, Unhappy With Candidates, Show Few Signs of Committing |
| G.O.P. Senate Odds Improve for Third Consecutive Week |
| Projected Republican Gains Approach 50 House Seats |
| Number of Competitive House Races Doubles from Recent Years |
| Incumbents Polling Below 50 Percent Often Win Re-Election, Despite Conventional Wisdom |
| West Virginia Poses Dilemma for Democrats: Must-Win or No-Win? |
| Modest Gains for Democrats in Gubernatorial Forecast |
| Voting by Mail in Washington State May Confound Pollsters |
| Democratic Polling Improves in Key Senate Races, Lengthening G.O.P. Takeover Odds |
| Bypassed Cellphones: Biased Polls? |
| Second Sestak Comeback Is Unlikely |
| Consensus Points to 50-Seat G.O.P. Gain in House, but May Understate Uncertainty |
| Canaries in the Coal Mine? Or Cuckoo Polls? |
| Alaska Race May Make for Long Election Night |
| Democrats Remain Favored to Retain Senate |
| Pennsylvania Revisited |
| Gubernatorial Forecast Update: Can Tancredo Win in Colorado? |
| The Misunderstanding of Momentum |
| G.O.P. Odds of House Majority Now 3-in-4 |
| Is Proposition 19 Going Up in Smoke? |
| Senate Forecast Update: Don’t Call It a Comeback? |
| Sometimes, Money Can’t Buy You Votes |
| For First Time, Model Has G.O.P. Favored to Win 50-Plus House Seats |
| Governor Forecast Update: Chafee’s Chances Wax; Whitman’s Wane |
| Senate Forecast Update: G.O.P. Still Seeking No. 51 |
| Early Voter ‘Enthusiasm Gap’ Appears Consistent With Polls |
| A Second Pass at Early Voting Totals: Now With Extra Skepticism |
| House Forecast: 8 Days to Go |
| G.O.P. Senate Odds Slip on Colorado, West Virginia Polls |
| Governors’ Forecast Moves Toward Democrats in 3 Blue States |
| Are Democrats Overachieving in the Senate? |
| Tonight’s House Forecast: 52-Seat Gain For G.O.P. |
| Polls Show Wider Boxer Lead, Narrowing G.O.P. Takeover Path |
| Model Now Has Whitman as Big Underdog in California |
| For Democrats, Losing the House Is Not Inevitable. (Just Very Likely.) |
| Angle Turns Corner in Nevada, but G.O.P. Senate Odds Drop |
| G.O.P. Now Projected to Gain 53 House Seats |
| Governor Forecast Update: Live, Automated Polls Split on Tancredo Chances |
| ‘Robopolls’ Significantly More Favorable to Republicans Than Traditional Surveys |
| Senate Update: Washington Is the New Florida |
| Favorites Emerge in Three-Way Governor’s Races |
| G.O.P. House Projection Steady at Plus-53 Seats |
| Senate Update: California May Be Out of Reach for G.O.P. |
| Sharp Changes in Maine, Oregon Governor Forecasts |
| Saturday Night Forecast Update: Calm Before the Storm |
| The Ultimate Hour-by-Hour, District-by-District Election Guide |
| 5 Reasons Republicans Could Do Even Better Than Expected |
| Strickland, Foley Hoping Voters Will Split Tickets |
| Agreeing to Disagree: Size of Republican Wave Hard to Predict |
| 5 Reasons Democrats Could Beat the Polls and Hold the House |
| House Forecast: G.O.P. Plus 54-55 Seats; Significantly Larger or Smaller Gains Possible |
| Republicans Are Clear Underdogs to Flip Senate |
| Republicans Will Win More Governorships (But Democrats Could Get More Votes) |
| Live Blogging the Election Returns |
| Did Polls Underestimate Democrats’ Latino Vote? |
| ‘Enthusiasm Gap’ Was Largest in Presidential Swing States |
| Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly |
| When ‘House Effects’ Become ‘Bias’ |
| 2010: An Aligning Election |
| Are Parents Just Saying No to Marijuana Legalization? |
| 2012 Contenders to Bet Against |
| Miller’s Chances of Victory Dim as Alaska Senate Write-In Count Begins |
| Tim Pawlenty: League-Average Politician |
| The Full-Body Backlash |
| Health Care and Bailout Votes May Have Hurt Democrats |
| Is Pelosi America’s Most Unpopular Politician? |
| The Hidden Costs of Extra Airport Security |
| The 800-Pound Mama Grizzly Problem |
| Predicting the Economy, and Obama’s Re-Election Chances |
| New Poll Suggests Shift in Public Views on T.S.A. Procedures |
| Jeter’s Predictable Predicament |
| Palin Support Limited Among Wealthy, College-Educated Republicans |
| A Quick Note to Our Readers |
| What The T.S.A. Hasn’t Told Us |
| Will the Big East and T.C.U. Live Happily Ever After? |
| Qatar a Questionable World Cup Host |
| Scott Brown Was an Outlier After All |
| The Democrats’ Tax Cut Dilemma |
| Previewing the G.O.P.’s 2012 Argument on Tax Cuts |
| Obama’s Tough Words for Liberals: Truth or Dare? |
| ‘Don’t Ask’ Debate Caught in Tax Cut Crossfire |
| Travel Advisory |
| Poll Suggests Risks for Obama if Liberals Feel Taken for Granted |
| A Bayesian Take on Julian Assange |
| Popularity of ‘Don’t Ask’ Repeal May Have Drawn Republican Votes |
| Exurban Growth Should Bolster G.O.P. in Congressional Redistricting |
| Census Impact on 2012 Presidential Race is Limited |
| Hispanic-Majority Districts: Boon or Burden for Democrats? |
| Optimism for Obama Should Come With Caution |
| Blizzards and Airline Capacities Do Not Mix |
| Bloomberg v. Blizzard: How Strong Is the Mayor’s Defense? |
| Sarah Palin’s Nomination Chances: A Reassessment |
| The 2010 Seattle Seahawks: Worst. Playoff. Team. Ever? |
| Post-Midterm Approval Ratings Don’t Predict Re-Election Chances |
| Is The Hall of Fame Too Small? |
| How Not To Take Responsibility For a Failed Forecast |
| If Giuliani Is Back, It Won’t Be By Popular Demand |
| To Understand Assassination Threat, Look Beyond Tucson |
| Did Democrats Give Up in the Gun Control Debate? |
| A Few Reflections on Obama’s Speech in Tucson |
| For Democrats, a Texas-Sized Challenge |
| Why Carmelo Anthony Is the Ultimate Team Player (and What ‘Advanced’ Stats Miss About Him) |
| The Chicken, The Egg, The Media and Sarah Palin |
| Gaming Senate Fights in Connecticut and North Dakota |
| Bullish Blue Dogs Oppose Health Care Repeal |
| Will It Be 1995 All Over Again? |
| Critics Love ‘The Social Network.’ Will The Academy Defriend It? |
| State of the Union: Watch the Strategy, Not the Polls |
| Obama’s Paradox of Choice |
| Approval Ratings and Re-Election Odds |
| Poll: Egyptian Public’s Views Toward United States Are Much Improved |
| Egypt, Oil and Democracy |
| More on Egypt and the U.S. |
| How Much Does Bing Borrow From Google? |
| A Graphical Overview of the 2012 Republican Field |
| Awards That Best Predict Oscar Voting Favor ‘The King’s Speech’ |
| A Close Super Bowl? Don’t Bet on It. |
| For Obama, Political Risks in Projecting Powerlessness |
| Are Democrats Better Off Than They Were 25 Years Ago? |
| How Will Webb’s Retirement Affect Virginia Democrats? |
| Under Tucson’s Shadow, Democrats To Search for Senate Candidate |
| The Economics of Blogging and The Huffington Post |
| Should Republicans Fret Over Their Presidential Field? |
| What Early Presidential Polls Tell Us |
| Budgetary Zugzwang |
| How Will Republicans Take Advantage of Bingaman’s Retirement? |
| Rasmussen Poll on Wisconsin Dispute May Be Biased |
| Deal for Anthony May Limit Knicks’ Upside |
| Decoding the Wisconsin Polls |
| Is Mississippi the New New Hampshire? |
| 4 Rules to Win Your Oscar Pool |
| The Effects of Union Membership on Democratic Voting |
| In Politics, Demographics Are Not Destiny |
| Risks to Obama in Oil Price Instability |
| Hawaii Senate Seat A Likely Hold for Democrats |
| Few Winning Scenarios for Gingrich |
| Wisconsin Is a Swing State in More Ways Than One |
| Ensign’s Retirement May Actually Help the G.O.P. |
| There’s Nothing Special About Ohio |
| Wisconsin Dispute Could Mobilize Democratic Base |
| In N.C.A.A. Tournament, Overachievers Often Disappoint |
| In Tournament, There’s No Place Like (Close to) Home |
| How We Made Our N.C.A.A. Picks |
| Talent Is Nice, but Luck Is Vital |
| When 15th Is Better Than 8th: The Math Shows the Bracket Is Backward |
| Measuring the Impact of N.C.A.A. Injuries |
| Palin’s Popularity Declines Among Republicans |
| Big East’s Performance Is Upsetting, But It’s No Failure |
| Poll Finds Tentative Support, Potential Risks for Obama on Libya |
| Models Can Be Superficial in Politics, Too |
| A Note to Our Readers on the Times Pay Model and the Economics of Reporting |
| The Talented Mr. Romney |
| In Tournament of Upsets, V.C.U. Has Overcome Longest Odds |
| In Coverage of 2012 Candidates, the Blogs and the Beltway Divide |
| Poll Shows More Americans Have Unfavorable Views of Tea Party |
| A Brief History of Primary Polling, Part I |
| Butler’s Back-to-Back Championship Appearances a 7,500-to-1 Longshot |
| A Brief History of Primary Polling, Part II |
| Which Airports Have the Most Unfair Fares? |
| Budget Politics in the Doldrums |
| Vote-Counting Error In Wisconsin Points to Incompetence, Not Conspiracy |
| Government Shutdowns and Approval Ratings |
| An Imbalanced Budget Deal? |
| Risks to Boehner in Debt-Ceiling Brinkmanship |
| Trump’s Rise Highlights a Flawed Field |
| Rumors of the Democrats’ Demise in the Senate are Slightly Exaggerated |
| The High Stakes of Republicans’ Budget Vote |
| Gay Marriage Opponents Now in Minority |
| After ‘Black Friday,’ American Poker Faces Cloudy Future |
| Media’s Spotlight Shines Less Brightly on Palin |
| The Electoral Implications of Ensign’s Resignation |
| On The Largely Irrelevant News About Haley Barbour Not Running for President |
| On the Largely Irrelevant News About Barbour Not Running for President |
| Poll Finds Most Americans Uncertain of Trump’s Birthplace |
| Beware ‘Mission Accomplished’ on Budget Debate |
| A Quick Note on Gas Prices and Presidential Approval |
| How Liberal Is President Obama? |
| Yes, Bin Laden’s Death Will Help Obama, but for How Long? |
| Second Thoughts About Obama and Bin Laden: It’s Not Just the Economy, Stupid |
| Overnight Polls Find Muted Improvement in Obama’s Approval Rating |
| A Brief History of Primary Polling, Part III |
| Beyond Obama’s Bin Laden Bounce |
| A Polling-Based Forecast of the Republican Primary Field |
| A Special Election May Be a Special Case |
| Huntsman’s Positions on Gay Rights Are Within the G.O.P. Mainstream |
| Wisconsin Retirement Adds to Democrats’ Burden in Senate Races |
| Who Benefits If Huckabee Doesn’t Run? |
| Sizing Up Iowa Without Huckabee |
| We Won’t Have Donald Trump to Kick Around Anymore |
| Paging Rick Perry: How a Southerner Could Sweep to the G.O.P. Nomination |
| On the Economics of Mass Transit and the Value of Common Sense |
| Advice for Young Journalists in the Digital Age |
| Now Running for President: Mitch Daniels’s Ghost |
| Special Election Warrants Caution for Forecasters — and for Republicans |
| The Ryan Budget Tipping Point |
| Six Months After Midterm Disaster, Hopeful Signs for Democrats |
| The Simple Case for Taking Herman Cain Seriously |
| The Not-So-Simple Case for Taking Herman Cain Seriously |
| Ranking Baseball’s Best Ballparks |
| Republicans May Need ‘Exit Strategy’ From Medicare Plan |
| As Mets’ Image Slumps, So Does Attendance |
| Running the Numbers on the Debt Ceiling Vote |
| On the Maddeningly Inexact Relationship Between Unemployment and Re-Election |
| What Do Economic Models Really Tell Us About Elections? |
| The 10-Word Question That Could Cost Obama the Election |
| Polls Find Huntsman Unacceptable to Many in Republican Base |
| Weiner’s Seat Could Be Scrambled in Redistricting |
| Questions Amid the Wreckage of Gingrich’s Campaign |
| The Electoral Effect of Sex Scandals |
| In Hedging Iowa Bets, Is Romney Going for Silver? |
| Debate Swings Door Open for Perry, Closed for Palin |
| The Governors’ Advantage in Presidential Races Is Bigger Than You Thought |
| Why Republicans Should Keep Expectations Modest for Winning Weiner’s Seat |
| Poll Finds a Shift Toward More Libertarian Views |
| Handicapping the Republican Field: Part I, the Top Tier |
| Handicapping the Republican Field: Part II, the Wild Cards |
| On the Claim that Republicans Want a Debt Default |
| Cuomo’s Presidential Moment Forms Contrast With Obama |
| 2 Roads Diverged in an Iowa Cornfield … |
| Cuomo, Obama and the Realm of the Possible |
| The Future of Same-Sex Marriage Ballot Measures |
| The Danger in Counting on Markets to Drive a Debt-Limit Deal |
| How Tim Pawlenty Is Like RC Cola |
| Calling Foul on N.B.A.’s Claims of Financial Distress |
| N.B.A. Disputes Forbes Analysis Suggesting League is Profitable |
| Why the Republicans Resist Compromise |
| Liberal Democrats Have Leverage on Debt Deal |
| In Coverage of Jobs Report, Misplaced Attention to Horse Race |
| Freshmen Republicans Push House Toward Right |
| In California, a Not-So-Special Performance for Democrats |
| G.O.P.’s No-Tax Stance Is Outside Political Mainstream |
| Nobody Wins the Debt Default Blame Game |
| A Bad Economy Could Harm House Republicans |
| Is Obama Against Romney a Toss-Up? |
| Two Paths in Budget Debate and in 2012 |
| G.O.P. Governors Swing Right, Leaving Voters Behind |
| Unfavorable Ratings for Both Major Parties Near Record Highs |
| Speaker Boehner’s Big Gamble |
| Washington Is Out of Touch. How About Wall Street? |
| Romney and Perry: Dual Front-Runners? |
| It’s All Over but the Face-Saving? |
| Surveying the Electoral Damage of the Debt Debate |
| Boehner’s Three-Legged Stool of Doom |
| How Boehner’s Bill Has Hurt, and How It Could Help, Republicans |
| Which Republicans Might Support Reid’s Debt Bill? |
| How Far Will Republicans Go to Avoid Defense Cuts? |
| The Fine Print on the Debt Deal |
| What the White House Left on the Table |
| Double Dip or Not, Economy Is Falling Further Behind |
| The Stock Market Is the Least of Obama’s Worries |
| Debt Deal Could Be a Job-Killer For Incumbents |
| Why S.&P.’s Ratings Are Substandard and Porous |
| Long-Term Investors Can Relax (a Little) |
| Reading the Wisconsin Recall Vote |
| Wisc. Results Suggest Recall of Governor Would Be Close |
| G.O.P. House Majority at Risk |
| Why Ames Actually Matters |
| You’ve Just Won the Ames Straw Poll; What Are You Going to Do Next? |
| Is Iowa Irrelevant? |
| Pondering Perry’s Electability |
| Confidence in Obama, and in the Economy, Declines |
| There’s Room for More G.O.P. Candidates |
| Why Another Democrat Wouldn’t Do Better Than Obama in 2012 |
| Perry Surges in Polls, Testing Romney’s Strategy |
| A New York Hurricane Could Be a Multibillion-Dollar Catastrophe |
| How Irene Lived Up to the Hype |
| Despite Keys, Obama Is No Lock |
| The North Dakota Paradox |
| In Jobs Data, ‘Surprises’ Mean Bad News |
| Bachmann’s Steep Path to the Nomination |
| Race to Replace Weiner Down to the Wire |
| Electability a Primary Liability for Perry |
| ‘Jobs, Jobs, Jobs’ Versus the S-Word |
| ‘Keys to the White House’ Historian Responds |
| Republicans Are Clear Favorites in New York and Nevada Special Elections |
| A Guide to Cutting Through Special-Election Spin |
| For Democrats, It’s 2010 All Over Again |
| Pennsylvania Electoral College Plan Could Backfire on G.O.P. |
| Would Al Gore Have Won in 2000 Without the Electoral College? |
| Views of Perry Turn More Negative Since First Debate |
| Romney Leads Endorsement Race |
| The Case for Buying Low on Perry |
| Is Christie the Anti-Perry or the Anti-Romney? |
| September Collapse of Red Sox Could Be Worst Ever |
| Christie, Clinton and the Calendar |
| Bill Buckner Strikes Again |
| Perry Slumps in Polls, but Not to Romney’s Gain |
| The Price of Running Late, Part 1 |
| The Price of Running Late, Part I |
| A West Virginia Forecast: High Uncertainty |
| How to Know Whether Cain Is Able |
| Police Clashes Spur Coverage of Wall Street Protests |
| New Hampshire’s Contrarian Streak |
| Tonight’s Debate Deserves the Hype |
| A Slow but Unsteady Debate for Perry |
| Early New Hampshire Primary Could Backfire on Romney |
| The Geography of Occupying Wall Street (and Everywhere Else) |
| Gallup Poll Is First to Find Plurality Support for Marijuana Legalization |
| Vegas Debate: A Game of Seven-Candidate Draw? |
| Romney’s Premature Perry Panic |
| Herman Cain, Outlier |
| Herman Cain and the Hubris of Experts |
| Media Distrust May Shield Cain From the Right’s Critiques |
| The Pawlenty Surge Was Never Coming |
| Harassment Allegations Could Cut at Core of Cain’s Appeal |
| Choose Obama’s Re-Election Adventure |
| It’s Not Too Late for Imprudent Speculation About Other Republican Candidates |
| Cain: Up, Down or Sideways? |
| Gingrich Rises in Polls But Has Major Obstacles to Nomination |
| Is Perry Toast? |
| The Gingrich Surge Has Come |
| Romney’s Early-State Obstacle Course |
| A ‘Radical Centrist’ View on Election Forecasting |
| Which Economic Indicators Best Predict Presidential Elections? |
| Romney’s Making the Right Play in Iowa |
| In the Land of the Salamanders, the Newt is King |
| Gingrich, Immigration and ‘What Would Reagan Do?’ |
| Romney Dominating Race for Endorsements |
| Newspaper’s Endorsement Has Been Leading Indicator in New Hampshire |
| The Buyer’s Remorse Primary |
| Does Romney Have a Moderate Problem? |
| Mistrust of Institutions May Touch G.O.P. Itself |
| How Safe Is Gingrich’s Lead in Iowa? |
| Other Than That, Mr. Cain, How Was the Campaign? |
| Gingrich’s Unimpeachable Conservative Credential |
| The Real G.O.P. Dark Horse: None of the Above |
| After $10,000 Offer, Some Bet Against Romney |
| Jon Huntsman’s Path to Victory |
| A First Iowa Forecast: Race Is Still Wide Open |
| Gingrich Momentum Slows, Polls Suggest |
| How Our Primary Forecasts Work |
| Do Iowa Polls Predict New Hampshire Results? |
| Des Moines Register Endorsement Has a Mixed Predictive Track Record |
| Paul Moves Into Lead in Iowa Forecast |
| Explaining Obama’s Approval Rating Bounce |
| In Iowa, Conservative Republicans Have Overachieved Polls |
| Paul’s Influence Doesn’t Just Depend on Him |
| How Can Romney Lose? |
| A Snapshot of the Race for the Senate |
| Polling Gridlock in Iowa Could Produce Last-Minute Momentum |
| New Iowa Poll May Understate Paul’s Support |
| The Santorum Surge in Iowa and Beyond |
| Our Smartest and Dumbest Columns of 2011 |
| Iowa Update: Slow and Steady May Win the Race for Romney |
| Amid Lead for Romney in Iowa Poll, Momentum for Santorum |
| In Iowa, Rick Perry Is Stuck in the Second Tier |
| Iowa Race Tightens in Final 48 Hours |
| Lunchtime Polling Update |
| In Iowa, Six Candidates Compete to Beat Expectations |
| Why I’d Bet on Santorum (and Against My Model) |
| Live Blogging the Iowa Caucuses |
| Romney’s Ugly Win May Be a Charm |
| Perry, Perry, Quite Contrary |
| First Post-Iowa Polls Show Bounce for Santorum |
| Iowan Casts Doubt on Winner of Caucus |
| Romney Leads South Carolina Polls |
| Beating Romney in N.H. Would Require Historic Upset |
| Vote Result From Disputed Precinct Deemed Official |
| Diverging Objectives in N.H. for G.O.P. Candidates |
| Some Signs in Polls That Santorum’s Momentum Has Stalled |
| Huntsman Has Momentum, but He Lacks Time |
| Ground Game Determines Candidates’ Strength |
| New Hampshire Primary Overview and Forecast |
| Analysis From the New Hampshire Primary |
| Romney Looks Strong in South Carolina and Beyond |
| Polls Show Gains for Romney — But Not in South Carolina |
| Intraparty Attacks Could Be November Liability for Romney |
| Romney-Obama: No Popularity Contest |
| Backing of Evangelicals Could Resuscitate Santorum in South Carolina |
| Before Citing a Poll, Read the Fine Print |
| Huntsman Withdrawal Should Aid Romney |
| National Polls Suggest Romney Is Overwhelming Favorite for G.O.P. Nomination |
| The Myth of ‘Anybody but Romney’ |
| Does Gingrich Have Momentum in South Carolina? |
| Perry’s Voters May Not Flock to Gingrich |
| Gingrich Tied With Romney in South Carolina Forecast |
| The Semantics and Statistics of Santorum’s Win in Iowa |
| Romney’s ‘Prevent Defense’ Yielding Big Gains to Opponents |
| Nominating Fight Wears on Romney’s Favorability Ratings |
| Gingrich Is Well-Positioned as South Carolina Votes |
| South Carolina Primary Overview and Forecast |
| Live Coverage of the South Carolina Primary |
| Did Gingrich’s Win Break the Paradigm? |
| New Florida Polls Show Big Swing to Gingrich |
| Some Signs G.O.P. Establishment’s Backing of Romney Is Tenuous |
| Reagan Count: Gingrich 55, Romney 6 |
| The Florida State of Play |
| Polls Suggest Gingrich’s Support May Have Peaked |
| Gingrich Enters Debate Needing One More Comeback |
| In Florida Debate, Gingrich Ignores Lessons of Recent History |
| Consensus of Polls Shows Romney Up in Florida |
| Advantage Romney in February, but Risks Abound |
| Gingrich Upset Chances Dwindle in New Florida Polls |
| Polls Diverge, but All Point to a Romney Win |
| The Incredible Shrinking Primary Bounce |
| Florida Primary Overview and Forecast |
| Live Coverage of the Florida Primary |
| Romney Wins, but Turnout Lags |
| Five Paths Forward for G.O.P. Nomination |
| Romney Is a Clear Favorite in Nevada, Arizona and Michigan; Ohio Is a Tossup |
| Obama’s Magic Number? 150,000 Jobs Per Month |
| The Nevada Caucus: Look for Romney to Win and Paul to Outperform |
| Nevada Caucus Updates |
| One Test Left for Romney: The Midwest |
| What We Learned from Nevada |
| The High Stakes in Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri |
| Live Coverage: Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri |
| G.O.P. Race Has Hallmarks of Prolonged Battle |
| Obama’s Jobs Bounce |
| The Bettor’s Case for Santorum |
| Maine Caucus Offers an Opportunity for Paul |
| Jeremy Lin Is No Fluke |
| How Maine Helps Romney |
| Could Ron Paul Still Win Maine? |
| Down in Michigan Polls, Romney Needs to Find His Base |
| The Fundamentals Now Favor Obama |
| Romney’s Tenuous Electability Edge |
| Santorum’s Surge Holds Steady So Far |
| Santorum and the Emphasis on Social Issues |
| In Michigan, Momentum for Romney? |
| Romney’s Money Problems |
| Mormon Voters Raise Romney’s Advantage in Arizona |
| In Michigan, Is Santorum Sinking or Steadying? |
| Romney Takes Michigan Forecast Lead |
| The G.O.P.’s Fuzzy Delegate Math |
| Stress-Testing Romney’s Michigan Edge |
| Michigan Forecast Update: Romney’s Lead Looks More Tenuous |
| Examining Michigan’s Delegate Math |
| After Many Momentum Shifts, Michigan Is Too Close to Call |
| Romney Poised for Big Win in Arizona |
| Live Coverage: the Michigan and Arizona Primaries |
| The Meaning of Michigan |
| Democrats Favored to Pick Up Snowe Seat |
| A Warning on the Accuracy of Primary Polls |
| Santorum Remains Modest Favorite in Ohio |
| In Washington Caucus, Expect the Unexpected |
| Washington Keeps Romney on Winning Track |
| Why Romney Wants to Be Like Michael Dukakis |
| State-by-State Analysis: Romney Could Win Majority of Super Tuesday Delegates |
| Santorum Slumps in Super Tuesday Polls |
| Super Tuesday Delegate Projection Update |
| A Guide to Super Tuesday Possibilities |
| Romney and the Majority Track |
| Live Coverage: Super Tuesday |
| A Predictable Super Tuesday |
| How Would Santorum Do Without Gingrich? |
| How Daunting Is Santorum’s Delegate Math? |
| Kansas Offers Santorum Chance for Big Delegate Grab |
| In G.O.P. Nomination Race, Geography Has Been Destiny |
| Approval Ratings, Gas Prices and Statistical Noise |
| Polling in Deep South Has Posed Challenges |
| FiveThirtyEight Picks the N.C.A.A. Bracket |
| What’s at Stake in Alabama and Mississippi |
| Live Coverage: Alabama and Mississippi Primaries |
| Why Is Santorum Overperforming His Poll Numbers? |
| For Romney and Santorum, a Battle of Chicago Versus Illinois |
| In Need of a Game Change, Santorum Plays Small Ball |
| In Illinois, Santorum’s Chance at Nomination Is Slipping Away |
| Romney’s Slightly Exaggerated Advertising Edge |
| Live Coverage: the Illinois Primary |
| G.O.P. Nomination Becoming a One-Man Race |
| Introducing the Romney Magic Numbers Calculator |
| Etch A Sketch Highlights Missed Opportunities for Romney’s Rivals |
| G.O.P. Campaign Could End Soon — But Not in Louisiana |
| Models Based on ‘Fundamentals’ Have Failed at Predicting Presidential Elections |
| For a Romney Running Mate, Don’t Bet on a Governor |
| Polls Show Romney on Track for Win in Wisconsin |
| Supreme Court May Be Most Conservative in Modern History |
| Complacency a Threat to Romney in Wisconsin |
| Romney Could Net 50 Delegates From Maryland and D.C. |
| Counterintuitive Theories on Obama and Supreme Court Run Against Polling Evidence |
| Live Coverage of the Wisconsin, Maryland and D.C. Primaries |
| Romney’s Michigan Win Stands as Climactic Moment in Campaign |
| What Does Santorum’s Future Hold? |
| Notes on Poll-Watching, as Shift Toward General Election Season Begins |
| Do Romney’s Favorability Ratings Matter? |
| The Overrated Vice Presidential Home-State Effect |
| Arizona Is (Probably) Not a Swing State |
| Lugar Loss Could Provide Pickup Opportunity for Democrats |
| North Carolina’s Ban on Gay Marriage Appears Likely to Pass |
| Has Obama’s Magic Jobs Number Changed? |
| Moderate Republicans Fall Away in the Senate |
| Support for Gay Marriage Outweighs Opposition in Polls |
| Gay Marriage and the Democratic Base |
| A 30,000-Foot View on the Presidential Race |
| Democrats’ Odds of Retaining Senate Improve |
| Swing Voters and Elastic States |
| In Wisconsin, Walker Is Likely to Survive Recall |
| Economically, Obama Is No Jimmy Carter |
| Economy, and Obama, Mired in Down Data |
| Late Polls Find Walker Is Still Favored |
| Governors’ Races Can Be a Contrary Indicator for Presidential Elections |
| Election Forecast: Obama Begins With Tenuous Advantage |
| A Guide to Forecast Model Updates |
| Statistical Noise in Election Polls |
| What Obama’s Immigration Decision Might Mean for 2012 |
| Hispanic Voters Less Plentiful in Swing States |
| Outlier Polls Are No Substitute for News |
| Calculating ‘House Effects’ of Polling Firms |
| Do Democrats Have a Shot at the House? |
| The Problems With Forecasting and How to Get Better at It |
| Details of Health Care Ruling Could Be Lost on Public |
| Overconfidence Suggested in Supreme Court Predictions |
| In Health Ruling, Relief for Obama but a Blow to Conventional Wisdom |
| June 29: Obama Rises to 67.8 Percent |
| July 2: Obama’s Lead Holds, but Manufacturing Report Could Mean Trouble |
| July 3: No Polling Fireworks on Eve of Holiday |
| Measuring the Effect of the Economy on Elections |
| July 5: Waiting for Jobs, Jobs, Jobs |
| Three Questions After the June Jobs Report |
| July 6: Obama Forecast Falls Slightly After Jobs News |
| July 9: Poll Doldrums |
| July 10: Romney Edges Up After Busy Poll Day |
| July 11: Has Anything Changed in the Presidential Race? |
| Why Obama May Be Stronger Than His Approval Ratings |
| July 12: Some Noisy News, but Little Change in Forecast |
| July 13: Obama Forecast Buoyed by Stock Rally |
| In Search for Female Running Mate, a Shortlist for Romney |
| July 14: Another Recount in Florida? |
| Measuring the Effects of Voter Identification Laws |
| Keeping Lin Should Make Financial Sense for the Knicks |
| July 16: Obama Gains Ground From Ohio Poll |
| Is Romney Overreacting to Bain Attacks? |
| July 17: Obama’s Re-election Chances Fall on Gloomy G.D.P. Forecast |
| Let’s Play Medalball! |
| July 18: New Polls, but Little Change in Horse Race |
| Does Romney Have an Edge From Likely Voter Polls? |
| July 19: Better Numbers for Romney in Virginia |
| July 20: Little Change in Presidential Forecast |
| July 21: Polls Show Forward Movement for Obama in Florida |
| Do Presidential Polls Break Toward Challengers? |
| July 23: Is Minnesota a Battleground Again? |
| State and National Polls Tell Different Tales About State of Campaign |
| July 24: The Incredibly Steady Presidential Race |
| July 25: Romney Gains in Tracking Polls |
| July 26: The Calm Before Critical Economic News |
| What the New G.D.P. Figures Mean for the Election |
| July 27: Ohio Polls Show Trouble for Romney |
| July 28: Missouri Slipping Away From Democrats |
| Which Olympic Records Get Shattered? |
| July 30: Forecast Stays Steady With 99 Days to Go |
| Pennsylvania Flaunts Its Importance |
| July 31: Obama Forecast Improves on Data Showing Faster Income Growth |
| Aug. 1: Obama Extends Electoral College Advantage |
| Aug. 2: When a Poll That Seems Like News Isn’t |
| July Jobs Report Likely to Preserve Status Quo |
| Aug. 3: A Good Week for Obama in Forecast |
| Aug. 4: Likely No New Blue States in November |
| Aug. 5: State Polls, National Polls, and Likely Voters |
| Aug. 6: Pace of Presidential Polling Has Slowed Considerably From 2008 |
| Models, Models, Everywhere |
| Aug. 7: North Carolina Isn’t Central to Electoral Math |
| How Romney’s Pick of a Running Mate Could Sway the Outcome |
| Aug. 8: Colorado and Virginia Flip Places in Forecast |
| Aug. 9: National Polls Shouldn’t Panic Romney |
| Another Way for Romney to ‘Go Bold’? Pick a Moderate |
| Aug. 10: Iowa, the Forgotten Swing State |
| A Risky Rationale Behind Romney’s Choice of Ryan |
| Aug. 11: Will Ryan Pick Move the Polls? |
| What Are Paul Ryan’s Chances of Becoming President? |
| Aug. 13: Polls Have Middling Reviews for Ryan |
| Aug. 14: The Fog of Polling — and Ryan’s ‘Bounce’ So Far |
| In Senate Races, Politics Are Local Again |
| Aug. 15: To Bounce, or Not to Bounce |
| Aug. 16: Why I’m Not Buying the Romney Rally |
| Aug. 17: Does a Bullish Stock Market Predict a Faster Recovery? |
| Aug. 18: Obama Leads Big — Among Those Least Likely to Vote |
| Akin Comments Could Swing Missouri Senate Race |
| In Picking Ryan, Romney Makes an All-In Move |
| Aug. 20: When the Polling Gets Weird |
| Aug. 21: Romney Showing Improved Results in Swing State Polls |
| Aug. 22: Keeping Score on a Busy Polling Day |
| Republican Voters Could Sit Out Missouri Senate Race |
| Aug. 23: Seven Ways to Evaluate a Poll |
| Aug. 25: An Above-Average ‘Likely Voter Gap’ for Romney |
| Aug. 26: Little Momentum in Polls in Advance of Conventions |
| Aug. 27: Michigan Isn’t a Tossup |
| Aug. 28: A Moment of Polling Clarity |
| Measuring a Convention Bounce |
| Aug. 29: So Much Depends Upon Ohio |
| Base Turnout Strategy May Be Too Narrow for Romney |
| In Prudent Speech, Romney Seeks Role as Generic Republican |
| Aug. 30: Remember the Economy? |
| Aug. 31: TV Ratings May Be Leading Indicator of Convention Bounce |
| Sept. 1: Romney’s Convention Bounce Appears Middling So Far |
| Sept. 2: Split Verdict in Polls on Romney Convention Bounce |
| In Looking Back Four Years, Voters Have Short Memories |
| Sept. 3: Par or Bogey? |
| Sept. 4: The Simple Case for Why Obama Is the Favorite |
| Is Bad Weather Really the Reason to Move Obama’s Speech Indoors? |
| Sept. 5: Looking Ahead After Charlotte |
| Obama Would Be Big Favorite With ‘Fired Up’ Base |
| Sept. 6: A Referendum or a Choice? |
| Effect of Jobs Numbers on Presidential Race Is Uncertain |
| Sept. 7: Polls Find Hints of Obama Convention Bounce |
| Sept. 8: Conventions May Put Obama in Front-Runner’s Position |
| Why Weather Forecasters Are Role Models |
| Sept. 9: Call It as You See It |
| Sept. 10: Will Obama’s Bounce Hold? |
| Sept. 11: Florida a True Must-Win for Romney |
| Sept. 12: Polls Since Conventions Point to Decline in ‘Enthusiasm Gap’ |
| Reaction to Libya Attack Could Color Poll Analysis, and Vice Versa |
| Sept. 13: After Convention Bounce, Holding Obama’s Polls to a Higher Standard |
| Sept. 14: Obama Forecast Declines on Poor Manufacturing Report |
| Sept. 15: Waiting on Wisconsin |
| Sept. 16: Watching the Clock and Awaiting the Unknown |
| Sept. 17: Electoral College May Not Help Obama |
| FiveThirtyEight Forecast: G.O.P. Senate Hopes Slipping |
| Sept. 18: Obama’s Bounce Erodes in Two Tracking Polls |
| Obama’s Lead Looks Stronger in Polls That Include Cellphones |
| Senate Forecast: What Has Gone Wrong for G.O.P. Candidates? |
| Sept. 19: A Wild Day in the Polls, but Obama Ends Up Ahead |
| Sept. 20: Obama’s Convention Bounce May Not Be Receding |
| Sept. 21: Presidential Race Changes, but Swing States Stay the Same |
| Sept. 22: Little Agreement Among Pollsters on ‘Enthusiasm Gap’ |
| Sept. 23: Does Omaha Matter? |
| The Statistical State of the Presidential Race |
| Sept. 24: Deep Red Polling Mystery |
| Sept. 25: Romney’s Narrow Path Without Ohio |
| Sept. 26: Could 2012 Be Like 2008? |
| Sept. 27: The Impact of the ‘47 Percent’ |
| Sept. 28: A Circular Relationship Between Political and Economic Views |
| Poll Averages Have No History of Consistent Partisan Bias |
| Sept. 29: As Iowa Goes, So Go Romney's Chances? |
| Sept. 29: As Iowa Goes, So May Go Romney’s Chances |
| Sept. 30: Romney Down a Touchdown? |
| New Polls Raise Chance of Electoral College Tie |
| Oct. 1: Is the Presidential Race Tightening Heading Into the Debates? |
| Oct. 2: Good News for Romney in National Polls, and Obama in Pennsylvania |
| First Debate Often Helps Challenger in Polls |
| Polls Show a Strong Debate for Romney |
| Oct. 3: Romney’s Electoral Challenge, and More on Debate Instant Polls |
| Oct. 4: Too Soon to Gauge Impact of Debate on Polls |
| Jobs News Makes Obama’s Case Easier |
| Oct. 5: Day After Debate, Strong Swing State Polls for Romney |
| Oct. 6: Romney Maintains Poll Momentum |
| Oct. 7: National Polls Show Signs of Settling |
| Amid Volatile Polling, Keep an Eye on Election Fundamentals |
| Oct. 8: A Great Poll for Romney, in Perspective |
| Oct. 9: Romney Erases Obama’s Convention Bounce in Forecast |
| Biden’s Debate Mission: Whip Up Democrats to Blunt Romney’s Gains |
| Oct. 10: Is Romney Leading Right Now? |
| In Polls, Biden Gets a Hold |
| Oct. 11: Obama’s Swing State ‘Firewall’ Has Brittle Foundation |
| Oct. 12: Romney Debate Gains Show Staying Power |
| G.O.P. Senate Hopes Fade, Even as Romney’s Rise, Polls Show |
| Oct. 13: Arizona and the Spanish-Speaking Vote |
| Oct. 14: Breaking the State-National Poll Stalemate |
| Oct. 15: Distracted by Polling Noise |
| No Guarantee of Obama Rebound in Second Debate |
| Falling Prey to the Dangerous Temptation to Cherry-Pick Polls |
| Instant Reaction Polls Show Narrow Obama Advantage in Second Debate |
| Oct. 16: Can Polls Exaggerate Bounces? |
| Gallup vs. the World |
| Oct. 18: Obama Gains in Forecast on Resiliency in Swing State Polls |
| Oct. 19: After Romney Gains, Should Obama Concede Florida? |
| Oct. 20: Calm Day in Forecast, but Volatility Ahead |
| ‘Gender Gap’ Near Historic Highs |
| Oct. 21: Uncertainty Clouds Polling, but Obama Remains Electoral College Favorite |
| Referendum or Choice, Which Candidate Will Show Fighting Spirit? |
| Obama Unlikely to Get Big Debate Bounce, but a Small One Could Matter |
| Oct. 22: Ohio Has 50-50 Chance of Deciding Election |
| Oct. 23: The Virtues and Vices of Election Prediction Markets |
| Oct. 24: In Polls, Romney’s Momentum Seems to Have Stopped |
| Oct. 25: The State of the States |
| Oct. 26: State Poll Averages Usually Call Election Right |
| Oct. 27: Minnesota Moonlights as Swing State, but Ohio and Virginia Are More Crucial |
| Oct. 28: In Swing States, a Predictable Election? |
| Impact of Hurricane Sandy on Election Is Uncertain |
| Oct. 29: Polling Slows as Storm Wreaks Havoc |
| Oct. 30: What State Polls Suggest About the National Popular Vote |
| Oct. 31: Obama’s Electoral College ‘Firewall’ Holding in Polls |
| Nov. 1: The Simple Case for Saying Obama Is the Favorite |
| Revisiting Our February Jobs Prediction |
| Nov. 2: For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased |
| Nov. 3: Romney’s Reason to Play for Pennsylvania |
| State and National Polls Come Into Better Alignment |
| Nov. 4: Did Hurricane Sandy Blow Romney Off Course? |
| Nov. 5: Late Poll Gains for Obama Leave Romney With Longer Odds |
| Special Coverage: The 2012 Presidential Election |
| As Nation and Parties Change, Republicans Are at an Electoral College Disadvantage |
| Which Polls Fared Best (and Worst) in the 2012 Presidential Race |
| Turnout Steady in Swing States and Down in Others, But Many Votes Remain Uncounted |
| The Statistical Case Against Cabrera for M.V.P. |
| Democrats Unlikely to Regain House in 2014 |
| Expansion by Big Ten May Bring Small Payoff |
| Where Obama and Romney Beat Their Polls |
| Pennsylvania Could Be a Path Forward for G.O.P. |
| Congressional Proposal Could Create ‘Bubble’ in Tax Code |
| In Silicon Valley, Technology Talent Gap Threatens G.O.P. Campaigns |
| When Internal Polls Mislead, a Whole Campaign May Be to Blame |
| Alaska: Future Swing State? |
| Two Senate Seats in South Carolina, but Few Democratic Prospects |
| Why Hillary Clinton Would Be Strong in 2016 (It’s Not Her Favorability Ratings) |
| A Smart Breakaway for Big East Basketball Schools |
| In Public ‘Conversation’ on Guns, a Rhetorical Shift |
| Party Identity in a Gun Cabinet |
| For Scott Brown, a Third Round in the Battle Against Partisan Gravity |
| In House of Representatives, an Arithmetic Problem |
| As Swing Districts Dwindle, Can a Divided House Stand? |
| Why It’s Hard to Score the Fiscal Deal |
| A Marquee B.C.S. Matchup? To Be Determined |
| Suspicion of Steroid Use Could Keep Bagwell and Piazza Out of Hall |
| In Cooperstown, a Crowded Waiting Room |
| Why Obama May Drive a Hard Bargain |
| What Is Driving Growth in Government Spending? |
| For Second-Term Presidents, a Shorter Honeymoon |
| Contemplating Obama’s Place in History, Statistically |
| High-Risk Primaries Could Cost Republicans in 2014 |
| Party-Line Voting Makes Scott Brown Part of a Dying Breed in the Senate |
| New Rove Group Could Backfire on G.O.P. |
| Marco Rubio: The Electable Conservative? |
| Can Republicans Win the Senate in 2014? |
| Oscar Predictions, Election-Style |
| Did Democrats Get Lucky in the Electoral College? |
| Conservatives’ Love Affair With Christie Is Over |
| In Supreme Court Debate on Voting Rights Act, a Dubious Use of Statistics |
| Even Without Intrade, Billions Will Be Bet on 2016 Race |
| Election of a Pope Tests Betting Markets |
| For Cardinals, Advantages in Choosing an Older Pope |
| Among G.O.P. Voters, Little Support for Same-Sex Marriage |
| Parity in N.C.A.A. Means No Commanding Favorite |
| How Viable Is Rand Paul for 2016? |
| Evaluating the Odds for Florida Gulf Coast and the Rest of the Final 16 Teams |
| How Opinion on Same-Sex Marriage Is Changing, and What It Means |
| Louisville Favored in Final Four, but Wichita State Could Become Unlikeliest Champion |
| Explaining the Senate’s Surge in Support for Same-Sex Marriage |
| With Popularity Fading at Home, Is Jindal the New Romney? |
| In State Governments, Signs of a Healthier G.O.P. |
| Why Weiner’s Mayoral Bid Is a Long Shot |
| Donations From Colleagues Identify Vulnerable House Incumbents |
| Modeling the Senate’s Vote on Gun Control |
| The Gun Vote and 2014: Will There Be an Electoral Price? |
| Jason Collins Breaks a Barrier. But Will He Find Another N.B.A. Job? |
| How Immigration Reform and Demographics Could Change Presidential Math |
| Does Gomez Have a Real Chance in Massachusetts? |
| Sanford and the Electoral Effect of Sex Scandals |
| I.R.S. Targeting of Conservative Groups Could Resonate in 2014 |
| Is There Really a Second-Term Curse? |
| New Audit Allegations Show Flawed Statistical Thinking |
| Is the Economy Saving Obama’s Approval Ratings? |
| Bachmann’s Retirement Reduces Electoral Risk for G.O.P. |
| Why Can’t Canada Win The Stanley Cup? |
| A Predictable Decline in Hillary Clinton’s Popularity |
| How Christie Can Maximize the G.O.P.’s Chances in New Jersey |
| Special Election Timing in New Jersey Points to a Weak G.O.P. Field |
| Domestic Surveillance Could Create a Divide in the 2016 Primaries |
| Heat’s Clutch Stats Meet Match in Spurs’ Strategy |
| In Massachusetts Senate Race, Odds for G.O.P. Upset Are Slim |
| Is Democratic Criticism on N.S.A. Hurting Obama’s Approval Rating? |
| LeBron’s Odds of Catching Jordan |
| As More Attend College, Majors Become More Career-Focused |
| Geography, Not Voting Rights Act, Accounts for Most Majority-Minority Districts |
| Same-Sex Marriage Availability Set to Double in One-Year Span |
| Public Opinion Shifts on Security-Liberty Balance |
| Senate Control in 2014 Increasingly Looks Like a Tossup |
| The White House Is Not a Metronome |
| FiveThirtyEight To Be Relaunched in Partnership with ESPN |
| FiveThirtyEight Job Posting: Managing Editor |
| Seeking Lead Writers in Sports, Politics and Economics |
| Job Openings: Business Development, Features Editor, Copy Editor |
| Job Opening: Database Journalist, Politics |
| Data Visualization Job Openings @ FiveThirtyEight |
| Status Update: Building FiveThirtyEight |
| FiveThirtyEight Hiring Update |
| FiveThirtyEight Seeks Data-Driven Freelance Writers |
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| Population Shifts Had Nothing to Do With Cantor’s Defeat |
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| The FiveThirtyEight International Food Association’s 2014 World Cup |
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| Pacers And George Still Have Plenty To Play For |
| Republicans Remain Slightly Favored To Take Control Of The Senate |
| What Happens To Injured NBA Stars Like Paul George? |
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| The English Premier League Starts Today; Here’s One Reason To Watch |
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| Upheaval In The Kansas Senate Race Is Making Our Chart Kinky |
| NFL Week 1 Elo Ratings |
| Introducing NFL Elo Ratings |
| Polls Show Path Of Least Resistance To GOP Majority |
| It’s Not The End Of An Era For Men’s Tennis |
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| How The FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast Model Works |
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| NFL Week 5 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds |
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| Senate Update: Lots Of Polls But Little Change |
| Same-Sex Marriage Is Now Legal For A Majority Of The U.S. |
| Senate Update: What’s The Matter With South Dakota? |
| NFL Week 6 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds |
| The ‘Maroon 6’: A Better Way To Look At The 2014 Senate Races |
| Royals vs. Orioles Tops Our List Of Comeback Clashes In League Championship Series |
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| NFL Week 7 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds |
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| NFL Week 8 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds |
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| Senate Update: The Republican Advantage Is Consistent But Not Decisive |
| Senate Update: The Swing States That Never Swung |
| Why The Senate Polling In Alaska Is Making Us Sweat |
| Senate Update: The Momentum Mirage |
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| Send Alex Gordon! |
| Senate Update: With 4 Days Left, Here’s The State Of The Races |
| FiveThirtyEight’s Gubernatorial Forecasts: A Lot Of Really Close Races |
| Senate Update: Polls Point Increasingly To Republican Senate Win |
| Are The State Polls Skewed? |
| Is 2014 A Republican Wave? |
| Why Michelle Nunn Is Rooting For A Senate Runoff In Georgia |
| Democrats Need Chaos |
| Final Update: Republicans Have A 3 In 4 Chance Of Winning The Senate |
| Five Scenarios For The Senate Election |
| The Polls Were Skewed Toward Democrats |
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| The NFL Should Expand To London. But First: Canada, Mexico And LA. |
| Week 11 NFL Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds |
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| FiveThirtyEight’s College Football Playoff Forecast |
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| College Football Playoff Update: 7 Teams Competing For 4 Positions |
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| NFL Week 14 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds |
| College Football Playoff Update: Oregon Makes A Case For No. 1 |
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| College Football Playoff Update: Three Teams Are Fighting For The Last Spot |
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| FiveThirtyEight’s Final College Football Playoff Forecast |
| College Football Playoff: Final Thoughts And National Championship Odds |
| Week 15 NFL Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds |
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| Week 16 NFL Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds |
| Week 17 NFL Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds: Special Seahawks Edition |
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| Week 19 NFL Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds: Divisional Round Edition |
| The Most Clutch Postseason Quarterback Of All Time Is Eli Manning |
| Calif. Republican Primary Forecasts |
| Romney And The GOP’s Five-Ring Circus |
| We’re Hiring A Managing Editor |
| Expand The College Football Playoff |
| NFL Week 20 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds: Conference Championships |
| Planes, Trains And Taxis: When To Take Public Transit From The Airport |
| National Republican Primary Polls |
| Big Blizzards Have Become More Common In New York |
| The Patriots And Seahawks Are The Best. This Could Be The Worst Super Bowl Ever. |
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| We’re Forecasting The 2015 U.K. General Election |
| Please Welcome David Firestone, FiveThirtyEight’s New Managing Editor |
| How We Found The Fastest Flights |
| A Better Way To Find The Best Flights And Avoid The Worst Airports |
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| How FiveThirtyEight’s March Madness Bracket Works |
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| The Odds That You’ll Have A Perfect March Madness Bracket |
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| A Radical Proposal To Destroy The NHL’s Loser Point |
| Hot Takedown: An Emergency Discussion About Kentucky’s Loss, Live From Our Hotel Room |
| Coach Cal Blew It |
| There Are Few Libertarians. But Many Americans Have Libertarian Views. |
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| Clinton Begins The 2016 Campaign, And It’s A Toss-up |
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| A Simple, Knicks-Proof Proposal To Improve The NBA’s Draft Lottery |
| Is Bush Doomed In The General? (Or: A Lesson In Conditional Probability) |
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| How Google Searches Can Predict Hockey Ticket Sales |
| Six Things I Learned While Traveling The United Kingdom In An Airstream Trailer |
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| Video: It’s Election Day In The U.K. |
| The Rangers Are The San Antonio Spurs Of The NHL |
| There Is No ‘Blue Wall’ |
| And Now, The Roy Awards For The Best NHL Playoff Goaltending Performances |
| The Rangers’ Stranger And Stranger Statistical Feats |
| How We Calculate NBA Elo Ratings |
| The Best NBA Teams Of All-Time, According To Elo |
| Same-Sex Marriage Wins Easily In Ireland |
| Bill Russell’s Celtics Were Great. Tim Duncan’s Spurs Have Been Better. |
| Are The Rangers And Blackhawks Clutch — Or Lucky? |
| How To Break FIFA |
| How Our Women’s World Cup Model Works |
| Polling Is Getting Harder, But It’s A Vital Check On Power |
| Memo From A Bitter Rangers Fan: The NHL Just Missed A Ratings Bonanza |
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| Leave O’Hare Airport Alone |
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| The Bernie Sanders Surge Is About Bernie, Not Hillary |
| Donald Trump Is The World’s Greatest Troll |
| Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates |
| Joe Biden’s Schrödinger’s Cat Campaign |
| Did Your Team Blow It At The Trade Deadline? |
| Donald Trump’s Six Stages Of Doom |
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| Hillary Clinton’s Inevitable Problems |
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| Public Transit Should Be Uber’s New Best Friend |
| A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump |
| Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’ |
| Stop Comparing Donald Trump And Bernie Sanders |
| Hillary Clinton Is Stuck In A Poll-Deflating Feedback Loop |
| Scott Walker May Have Been A Terrible Candidate — Or An Unlucky One |
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| 2015-16 CARMELO NBA Projections: Anthony Davis |
| 2015-16 CARMELO NBA Projections: Marcus Smart |
| FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO NBA Projections: John Wall |
| FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO NBA Projections: Karl-Anthony Towns |
| FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO NBA Projections: Victor Oladipo |
| FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO NBA Projections — Kahlil Felder |
| FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO NBA Projections — Tim Duncan |
| We’re Predicting The Career Of Every NBA Player. Here’s How. |
| The Media Underestimated Hillary Clinton, But Overestimated Her Debate |
| 2015-16 NBA Preview: Andrew Wiggins Might Be The Next Carmelo |
| How The Media Blew The Biden Story |
| The 53 Best Franchise Players In The NBA |
| Maybe Republicans Really Are In Disarray |
| Yeah, Jeb Bush Is Probably Toast |
| Here’s How Our College Football Playoff Predictions Work |
| We Have (Almost) No Idea What The Economy Will Look Like On Election Day |
| Just Win, Baby (And You’ll Probably Make The College Football Playoff) |
| John Kasich Is So ‘Underrated,’ He’s Overrated |
| If Donald Trump Is The Problem, Mitt Romney Isn’t The Solution |
| Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls |
| Will Your Holiday Flight Be On Time? |
| How Republicans And Polls Enable Donald Trump |
| Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble? |
| The Fifth Republican Debate Ended In A Nine-Way Draw |
| Kristaps Porzingis Is A Freak — And Potentially A Superstar |
| Three Theories Of Donald Trump’s Rise |
| Calif. Democratic Primary Forecasts |
| Conn. Democratic Primary Forecasts |
| Fla. Republican Primary Forecasts |
| Ga. Democratic Primary Forecasts |
| Ind. Democratic Primary Forecasts |
| Iowa Republican Caucus Forecasts |
| La. Democratic Primary Forecasts |
| Md. Republican Primary Forecasts |
| Mich. Republican Primary Forecasts |
| Miss. Democratic Primary Forecasts |
| Mo. Democratic Primary Forecasts |
| Okla. Democratic Primary Forecasts |
| Pa. Republican Primary Forecasts |
| S.C. Democratic Primary Forecasts |
| W.Va. Democratic Primary Forecasts |
| How We’re Forecasting The Primaries* |
| Who’s Winning Iowa And New Hampshire? |
| The Glass-Half-Empty Case Against Ted Cruz |
| The GOP Primary, In One Debate |
| Why Some GOP Candidates Aren’t Taking The Fight To Trump |
| Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters |
| One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump |
| LeBron’s Cavs Are The Best Team Ever To Fire Its Coach Midseason |
| The Republican Party May Be Failing |
| Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate |
| What Would The Republican Race Look Like Without Trump? |
| What Happens If Bernie Sanders Wins Iowa |
| Four Roads Out Of Iowa For Republicans |
| Hillary Clinton May Win Iowa After All |
| Why Iowa Matters For Trump And Sanders |
| Iowa Is The Hardest State To Poll |
| Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan |
| Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much |
| Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild |
| Marco Rubio Stole Ted Cruz’s Iowa Bounce |
| Maybe Chris Christie Should Have Taken On Donald Trump |
| We Thought Marco Rubio Lost The Debate, But New Hampshire Might Think Differently |
| Why Young Democrats Love Bernie Sanders |
| What’s At Stake In New Hampshire’s Republican Primary |
| Republicans Need To Treat Donald Trump As The Front-Runner |
| Elections Podcast: The New Hampshire Results |
| Why Chris Christie Failed |
| Superdelegates Might Not Save Hillary Clinton |
| Bernie Sanders’s Path To The Nomination |
| The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump |
| What’s At Stake In The South Carolina Republican Primary |
| Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War |
| Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout |
| Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz |
| Bernie Sanders Doesn’t Need Momentum — He Needs To Win These States |
| Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump |
| Christie’s Endorsement Of Trump Totally Makes Sense |
| Don’t Assume Conservatives Will Rally Behind Trump |
| Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump? |
| Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices |
| Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules |
| Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump |
| Marco Rubio Never Had A Base |
| Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump |
| How FiveThirtyEight Is Forecasting The 2016 NCAA Tournament |
| Can Bernie Sanders Pull Off An Upset In Ohio? |
| Clinton Is Following Obama’s Path To The Nomination |
| Republicans Could Do A Lot Worse Than Merrick Garland Under President Clinton — Or President Trump |
| No. 16 Seeds Are Due* |
| Michigan State And The Biggest NCAA Tournament Upsets Ever |
| Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention? |
| Past Terrorist Attacks Helped Trump Capitalize On Anti-Muslim Sentiment |
| Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November |
| It’s Really Hard To Get Bernie Sanders 988 More Delegates |
| How Trump Hacked The Media |
| It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention |
| Ted Cruz, Not Paul Ryan, Would Probably Win A Contested Convention |
| Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote |
| A State-By-State Roadmap For The Rest Of The Republican Primary |
| Clinton Is Winning The States That Look Like The Democratic Party |
| More Democrats Are Feeling The Bern, Probably |
| Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working |
| Today Is Clinton’s Chance To End The ‘Groundhog Day’ Campaign |
| It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
| Republicans In Competitive Races Have Shunned Trump |
| The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support |
| Why Republican Voters Decided On Trump |
| Elections Podcast: Should Congressional Republicans Be Worried About Trump? |
| How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump |
| The Hidden Importance Of The Sanders Voter |
| Elections Podcast: The General Election Polls Tighten |
| The System Isn’t ‘Rigged’ Against Sanders |
| Pollster Ratings |
| The State Of The Polls, 2016 |
| Hispanic Voters Will Decide Bernie Sanders’s Fate in California |
| Hillary Clinton Will Be Nominated Because More Democrats Are Voting For Her |
| Las Vegas Is A Terrible Place For An NHL Team |
| 2016 Election Forecast |
| Arizona | 2016 Election Forecast |
| California | 2016 Election Forecast |
| Georgia | 2016 Election Forecast |
| Kentucky | 2016 Election Forecast |
| Michigan | 2016 Election Forecast |
| Minnesota | 2016 Election Forecast |
| New Hampshire | 2016 Election Forecast |
| Pennsylvania | 2016 Election Forecast |
| Wisconsin | 2016 Election Forecast |
| A User’s Guide To FiveThirtyEight’s 2016 General Election Forecast |
| Donald Trump Has A 20 Percent Chance Of Becoming President |
| Even With Kevin Durant, The Warriors Probably Won’t Win 73 Games Again |
| Election Update: Swing State Polls And National Polls Basically Say The Same Thing |
| What’s New In Our NBA Projections For 2016-17 |
| Election Update: Nevada Is Still A Swing State |
| Election Update: When To Freak Out About Shocking New Polls |
| Why Mike Pence Was Trump’s Least Worst Choice |
| Election Update: 10 Questions About Where The 2016 Race Stands |
| Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Is As Safe As Kerry’s Was In 2004 |
| Nate Silver And John Dickerson Talk About Melania Trump’s Borrowed Speech |
| If Americans Perceive A World In Chaos, Will They Turn To Trump? |
| Nate Silver And Molly Ball Talk The Future Of The GOP |
| Only 20 Percent Of Voters Are ‘Real Americans‘ |
| Donald Trump’s Convention Is Flirting With Disaster |
| Donald Trump Goes ‘All-In.’ How Will Clinton Respond? |
| Tim Kaine Wouldn’t Do Much To Help Clinton Win The Election |
| Election Update: Is Trump Getting A Convention Bump? |
| Election Update: Trump Gets Convention Bounce, Drawing Polls To Dead Heat |
| Was The Democratic Primary A Close Call Or A Landslide? |
| Election Update: Why Our Model Is Bullish On Trump, For Now |
| Where The Election Goes From Here |
| Election Update: Clinton’s Bounce Appears Bigger Than Trump’s |
| Election Update: Is Clinton’s Lead A Bounce Or A New Equilibrium? |
| Election Update: Trump’s Slump Deepens In The Polls |
| Election Update: Polls Show Pennsylvania Back In Clinton’s Firewall |
| Which Countries Medal In The Sports That People Care About? |
| Election Update: When One Poll Makes A Big Difference |
| What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like |
| Election Update: 10 Big Questions About The Election, Revisited |
| Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Is Clear And Steady |
| Trump Is Doubling Down On A Losing Strategy |
| Election Update: National Polls Show The Race Tightening — But State Polls Don’t |
| Election Update: Leave The LA Times Poll Alone! |
| Election Update: The Blue State Polling Abyss |
| Election Update: It’s Too Soon For Clinton To Run Out The Clock |
| Election Update: As The Race Tightens, Don’t Assume The Electoral College Will Save Clinton |
| 2016 Election Forecast - Analysis |
| Election Update: Clinton’s Lead Keeps Shrinking |
| Election Update: The Swing States Are Tightening, Too |
| Is A 50-State Poll As Good As 50 State Polls? |
| Election Update: Has Clinton’s ‘Bad Weekend’ Moved The Polls? |
| Election Update: Democrats Should Panic … If The Polls Still Look Like This In A Week |
| 2016 Senate Forecast |
| 2016 Senate Forecast — Senate Generic Ballot |
| Colorado | 2016 Senate Forecast |
| Florida | 2016 Senate Forecast |
| Illinois | 2016 Senate Forecast |
| Indiana | 2016 Senate Forecast |
| Kentucky | 2016 Senate Forecast |
| Louisiana | 2016 Senate Forecast |
| Missouri | 2016 Senate Forecast |
| Nevada | 2016 Senate Forecast |
| New Hampshire | 2016 Senate Forecast |
| New York | 2016 Senate Forecast |
| North Carolina | 2016 Senate Forecast |
| South Carolina | 2016 Senate Forecast |
| Wisconsin | 2016 Senate Forecast |
| Senate Forecast: The Map Favors Democrats, Ever So Slightly |
| Clinton’s Leading In Exactly The States She Needs To Win |
| Election Update: The Case For And Against Democratic Panic |
| Election Update: Where The Race Stands Heading Into The First Debate |
| Election Update: Polls Show A Close Race (So Our Model Does Too) |
| Clinton Won The Debate, Which Means She’s Likely To Gain In The Polls |
| Election Update: Early Polls Suggest A Post-Debate Bounce For Clinton |
| Election Update: Even A Small Post-Debate Bounce Could Make A Big Difference For Clinton |
| Election Update: Clinton’s Debate Performance Is Helping Her In Swing States |
| Election Update: The Craziest End To The 2016 Campaign Runs Through New Mexico |
| Election Update: How Big Is Hillary Clinton’s Lead? |
| Election Update: North Carolina Is Becoming A Problem For Trump |
| Election Update: Maybe It’s Time For Ohio And Pennsylvania To Part Ways |
| Election Update: Are Trump’s Polls Getting Worse? |
| The Bottom Could Fall Out For Trump |
| The Second Debate Probably Didn’t Help Trump, And He Needed Help |
| Election Update: Polls Show Potential Fallout From Trump Tape |
| Election Update: Women Are Defeating Donald Trump |
| Election Update: Post-Debate Polls Show Trump Still In Big Trouble |
| Trump Isn’t Teflon |
| Election Update: Watch New Hampshire For Signs Of A Trump Comeback |
| Election Update: Where The Race Stands With Three Weeks To Go |
| Here’s How We’re Forecasting The 4-Way Presidential Race In Utah |
| Election Update: Clinton’s Big Lead Means A Steadier Forecast |
| Election Update: Clinton’s Texas Opportunity (And Her Texas Problem) |
| Clinton Probably Finished Off Trump Last Night |
| Election Update: ‘Likely Voters’ Aren’t Helping Trump Much |
| Election Update: There Are 4 Ways This Election Can End — And 3 Involve Clinton Winning |
| Election Update: Trump May Depress Republican Turnout, Spelling Disaster For The GOP |
| Election Update: Why Our Model Is More Bullish Than Others On Trump |
| Election Update: Where Are The Undecided Voters? |
| Election Update: Is The Presidential Race Tightening? |
| Election Update: The Polls Disagree, And That’s OK |
| Elections Podcast Countdown: 11 Days |
| Election Update: The FBI Is Back — This Time With Anthony Weiner |
| Election Update: Four Ways Forward For Clinton After The FBI News |
| Election Update: What If Clinton Wins North Carolina — And Loses Pennsylvania? |
| Election Update: Comey Or Not, Trump Continues To Narrow Gap With Clinton |
| The Odds Of An Electoral College-Popular Vote Split Are Increasing |
| Election Update: Yes, Donald Trump Has A Path To Victory |
| Trump’s Chance Of Victory Has Doubled In The Last Two Weeks |
| Election Update: The How-Full-Is-This-Glass Election |
| Election Update: Why Clinton’s Position Is Worse Than Obama’s |
| Election Update: National Polls Show Clinton’s Lead Stabilizing — State Polls, Not So Much |
| Election Update: The Campaign Is Almost Over, And Here’s Where We Stand |
| Election Update: Don’t Ignore The Polls — Clinton Leads, But It’s A Close Race |
| How Much Did Comey Hurt Clinton’s Chances? |
| Election Update: The State Of The States |
| Actualización sobre las elecciones: El Estado de los Estados |
| Election Update: Clinton Gains, And The Polls Magically Converge |
| Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton |
| Live Election Night Forecast |
| What A Difference 2 Percentage Points Makes |
| Why FiveThirtyEight Gave Trump A Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else |
| Will The Electoral College Doom The Democrats Again? |
| Which Republican Senators Are Most Likely To Fight Trump? |
| Politics Podcast: What Would You Change About American Democracy? |
| Education, Not Income, Predicted Who Would Vote For Trump |
| Why I Support An Election Audit, Even Though It’s Unlikely To Change The Outcome |
| War Is Peace. Freedom Is Slavery. Trump Won In A Landslide. |
| Pollsters Probably Didn’t Talk To Enough White Voters Without College Degrees |
| We Updated Our College Football Model, And Now Michigan Looks Slightly Less Screwed |
| Here Are The Russia Hawks Who Could Kill Tillerson’s Nomination |
| Nate Silver Interviews Michael Lewis About His New Book, ‘The Undoing Project’ |
| Democrats Need To Win Elections, Not Flip Electors |
| Make College Football Great Again |
| Can You Trust Trump’s Approval Rating Polls? |
| The Real Story Of 2016 |
| The Electoral College Blind Spot |
| It Wasn’t Clinton’s Election To Lose |
| The Invisible Undecided Voter |
| The Long March Ahead For Democrats |
| Ohio Was A Bellwether After All |
| Why Early Voting Was Overhyped |
| Trump Is Doing What He Said He’d Do |
| Before You Call Your Senator, Read This On How Our Trump Scores Work |
| 14 Versions Of Trump’s Presidency, From #MAGA To Impeachment |
| Is It Time To Bring Back The Hartford Whalers? |
| Donald Trump Had A Superior Electoral College Strategy |
| The Super Bowl Wasn’t Really Like The Election |
| Clinton’s Ground Game Didn’t Cost Her The Election |
| What Makes A Trump Story Stick |
| Why Polls Differ On Trump’s Popularity |
| Why You Shouldn’t Always Trust The Inside Scoop |
| How Popular Is Donald Trump? |
| How Popular Is Donald Trump? — Adults |
| How Popular Is Donald Trump? — Voters |
| How We’re Tracking Donald Trump’s Approval Ratings |
| Nate Silver And Mark Cuban Talk A Lot Of Politics And A Little Basketball |
| Why It’s So Hard For The GOP To Agree On Health Care |
| There Really Was A Liberal Media Bubble |
| 2017 March Madness Predictions |
| It’s Crowded At The Top Of The NCAA Tournament |
| How FiveThirtyEight Is Forecasting The 2017 NCAA Tournament |
| Politics Podcast: The Health Of The GOP’s Health Care Bill |
| Trump Is Tempting Fate On Health Care |
| The GOP Health Care Bill Is Unpopular Even In Republican Districts |
| Trump Has No Good Options On Health Care |
| Emergency Health Care Podcast: Live From Boise |
| Trump Doesn’t Have A Mandate For Paul Ryan’s Agenda |
| The Gorsuch Filibuster Shows The Liberal Base’s Clout |
| Nuking The Filibuster May Hurt Republicans In The Long Run |
| Are The Cavs Overrated Or Underrated? |
| Handicapping The Georgia 6 Special Election |
| The Save Ruined Relief Pitching. The Goose Egg Can Fix It. |
| The U.K. Snap Election Is Riskier Than It Seems |
| Trump Probably Won’t Defy Midterm Gravity |
| Marine Le Pen Is In A Much Deeper Hole Than Trump Ever Was |
| The Comey Letter Probably Cost Clinton The Election |
| The Health Care Bill Could Be A Job-Killer For GOP Incumbents |
| Our 2017 Goose-Egg Reliever Rankings Are Here |
| Conventional Wisdom May Be Contaminating Polls |
| How To Know if The Trump-Russia Story Has Momentum |
| Will Donald Trump Be Impeached? |
| Donald Trump’s Base Is Shrinking |
| LeBron James Destroyed Our Elo Ratings, But Can He Beat The Warriors Again? |
| Andrew Miller Doesn’t Have Any Saves, And He’s The Best Reliever In Baseball |
| Are The U.K. Polls Skewed? |
| Are Democrats Or Republicans Winning The Race For Congress? |
| Are Democrats Or Republicans Winning The Race For Congress? — 2018 |
| The Three Scenarios For The U.K. Election |
| The U.K. Election Wasn’t That Much Of A Shock |
| Politics Podcast: Who Makes Up The Base? |
| Donald Trump Is Making Europe Liberal Again |
| Why The Georgia Special Election Matters |
| Where Can Democrats Win? |
| Will The Senate Pass Its Health Care Bill? |
| Mitch McConnell Isn’t Playing 13-Dimensional Chess |
| What’s New In Our NBA Player Projections For 2017-18 |
| Wait, Is Lonzo Ball The Next Russell Westbrook? |
| Paul George’s Legacy Could Be Dr. J’s … Or Danny Granger’s |
| Next Season’s NBA Heavyweights: Warriors, Cavs, Spurs, Rockets … Timberwolves? |
| Do The Celtics Have Enough Star Power To Win a Title? Not Yet. |
| Kenley Jansen Is Too Busy Helping The Dodgers Win To Get Saves |
| We Got Drunk On Margaritas For Science |
| We Got Drunk On Margaritas For Science |
| If Hillary Clinton Had Won |
| Trump And Congress Are Probably On A Collision Course Over Russia |
| McConnell Overreached On Health Care And Paid The Price |
| Why A Trump Pivot Might Backfire |
| Baseball Is Finally Realizing That The Save Is Dumb |
| Trump’s Populism Isn’t Popular — But That’s On Him, Not Bannon |
| Politics Podcast: How Trump Talks About Race |
| 7 Rules For Reading Trump’s Approval Rating |
| 2017 NFL Predictions |
| We’re Still Looking For The New Goose Gossage |
| The Media Has A Probability Problem |
| Never Tweet, Mr. President |
| The Media Needs To Stop Rationalizing President Trump’s Behavior |
| How Our 2017 College Football Playoff Predictions Work |
| 2017-18 NBA Predictions |
| Why The Warriors And Cavs Are Still Big Favorites |
| What Will Virginia And New Jersey Tell Us About Trump? |
| Kenley Jansen Is The Model Of A Modern Reliever |
| The Fundamentals Favor Democrats In 2018 |
| Would Republicans Be Better Off If The Democrat Won In Alabama? |
| Democrats Missed A Chance To Draw A Line In The Sand On Sexual Misconduct |
| Lots Of Alabama Voters Care About Roy Moore’s Scandals |
| Why Democrats Are Finally Pushing Franken To Resign |
| What The Hell Is Happening With These Alabama Polls? |
| Republicans Shouldn’t Assume Roy Moore Was An Outlier |
| Republicans Are Taking Voter Concerns About The Tax Bill Too Literally |
| Are Democrats’ Senate Chances In 2018 Overrated? |
| We Drew 2,568 Congressional Districts By Hand. Here’s How. |
| Could A Stock Market Downturn Tank Trump’s Approval Rating? |
| Can The NBA All-Star Game Be Fixed? |
| How Much Did Russian Interference Affect The 2016 Election? |
| 2018 March Madness Predictions |
| How Our March Madness Predictions Work |
| How Our March Madness Predictions Work |
| The ‘Enthusiasm Gap’ Could Turn A Democratic Wave Into A Tsunami |
| Another Special Election, Another Really Bad Sign For The GOP |
| President Trump’s Approval Rating Has Been Steady. Richard Nixon’s Once Was Too. |
| The Polls Are All Right |
| Which Pollsters To Trust In 2018 |
| Sometimes The Parties Do Decide, After All |
| The Most Promising Players In The NBA Draft According To My Computer |
| CARMELO NBA Player Projections |
| CARMELO NBA Player Projections — Buddy Hield |
| CARMELO NBA Player Projections — Cj Mccollum |
| CARMELO NBA Player Projections — Damian Lillard |
| CARMELO NBA Player Projections — Dewayne Dedmon |
| CARMELO NBA Player Projections — Dion Waiters |
| CARMELO NBA Player Projections — Gary Harris |
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| CARMELO NBA Player Projections — John Collins |
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| CARMELO NBA Player Projections — Lebron James |
| CARMELO NBA Player Projections — Lou Williams |
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| CARMELO NBA Player Projections — Tony Snell |
| CARMELO NBA Player Projections — Tyson Chandler |
| CARMELO NBA Player Projections — Willie Cauley Stein |
| Our NBA Player Projections Are Ready For 2018-19 |
| Will Kennedy’s Retirement Help Republicans At The Midterms? |
| CARMELO NBA Player Projections |
| CARMELO NBA Player Projections — Aaron Holiday |
| CARMELO NBA Player Projections — Abdel Nader |
| CARMELO NBA Player Projections — Admiral Schofield |
| CARMELO NBA Player Projections — Al Jefferson |
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| CARMELO NBA Player Projections — Gary Clark |
| CARMELO NBA Player Projections — Gary Payton Ii |
| CARMELO NBA Player Projections — Georges Niang |
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| CARMELO NBA Player Projections — Ignas Brazdeikis |
| CARMELO NBA Player Projections — Isaiah Roby |
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| CARMELO NBA Player Projections — Ivan Rabb |
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| CARMELO NBA Player Projections — Jacob Evans |
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| CARMELO NBA Player Projections — Lance Stephenson |
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| CARMELO NBA Player Projections — Mfiondu Kabengele |
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| CARMELO NBA Player Projections — Mikal Bridges |
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| CARMELO NBA Player Projections — Vince Carter |
| CARMELO NBA Player Projections — Walt Lemon Jr |
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| CARMELO NBA Player Projections — Zach Norvell Jr |
| CARMELO NBA Player Projections — Zhaire Smith |
| CARMELO NBA Player Projections — Zion Williamson |
| CARMELO NBA Player Projections — Zylan Cheatham |
| Politics Podcast: Should The Press Respond To Trump’s Attacks? |
| How Competitive Would New York 27 Be With Chris Collins On The Ballot? |
| 2018 House Forecast |
| Alaska at large - 2018 House Forecast |
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| How FiveThirtyEight’s House Model Works |
| Model Talk: Let’s Talk About The 2018 House Forecast |
| The 5 Big Takeaways From Our House Forecast |
| Politics Podcast: The Democrats And The Trump Impeachment Question |
| Model Talk: Features And Bugs |
| Election Update: Democrats Are In Their Best Position Yet To Retake The House |
| How Our NFL Predictions Work |
| How Our NFL Predictions Work |
| Here’s A New, Less Volatile Version Of Our Generic Ballot Tracker |
| Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts |
| Politics Podcast: Inside The Trump Administration |
| 2018 Senate Forecast |
| Arizona - 2018 Senate Forecast |
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| How FiveThirtyEight’s House, Senate And Governor Models Work |
| Republicans Are Favorites In The Senate, But Democrats Have Two Paths To An Upset |
| Politics Podcast: The Battle For The Senate Is Full Of Interesting Races |
| Will Democratic Senators Lose Despite The ‘Blue Wave’? |
| Can A Democrat Really Win A Senate Race In Tennessee? Or Mississippi?!?! |
| The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon |
| Election Update: Why Our Model Thinks Beto O’Rourke Really Has A Chance In Texas |
| Election Update: Here’s How We Decide Who’s Involved In A Scandal |
| Is Kavanaugh Helping Republicans’ Midterm Chances? |
| 2018 College Football Predictions |
| How Our College Football Playoff Predictions Work |
| What’s Behind Democrats’ Shrinking Senate Odds? |
| Politics Podcast: Two Forecasts Diverged In A Wood |
| Why The House And Senate Are Moving In Opposite Directions |
| 2018-19 NBA Predictions |
| 2018-19 NBA Predictions — 76Ers |
| 2018-19 NBA Predictions — Bucks |
| 2018-19 NBA Predictions — Bulls |
| 2018-19 NBA Predictions — Cavaliers |
| 2018-19 NBA Predictions — Celtics |
| 2018-19 NBA Predictions — Clippers |
| 2018-19 NBA Predictions — Games |
| 2018-19 NBA Predictions — Grizzlies |
| 2018-19 NBA Predictions — Hawks |
| 2018-19 NBA Predictions — Heat |
| 2018-19 NBA Predictions — Hornets |
| 2018-19 NBA Predictions — Jazz |
| 2018-19 NBA Predictions — Kings |
| 2018-19 NBA Predictions — Knicks |
| 2018-19 NBA Predictions — Lakers |
| 2018-19 NBA Predictions — Magic |
| 2018-19 NBA Predictions — Mavericks |
| 2018-19 NBA Predictions — Nets |
| 2018-19 NBA Predictions — Nuggets |
| 2018-19 NBA Predictions — Pacers |
| 2018-19 NBA Predictions — Pelicans |
| 2018-19 NBA Predictions — Pistons |
| 2018-19 NBA Predictions — Raptors |
| 2018-19 NBA Predictions — Rockets |
| 2018-19 NBA Predictions — Spurs |
| 2018-19 NBA Predictions — Suns |
| 2018-19 NBA Predictions — Thunder |
| 2018-19 NBA Predictions — Timberwolves |
| 2018-19 NBA Predictions — Trail Blazers |
| 2018-19 NBA Predictions — Warriors |
| 2018-19 NBA Predictions — Wizards |
| An Upset That Nobody Sees Coming Could Determine Control Of The House |
| 2018 Governors Forecast |
| Odds Are, Your Next Governor Will Be A Democrat |
| Election Update: Democrats’ Unprecedented Fundraising Edge Is Scary For Republicans … And Our Model |
| Trump’s Approval Rating Is Up. Republican House Chances Are Down. Does That Make Any Sense? |
| Election Update: Romney-Clinton Districts Are Overrated. Obama-Trump Districts Are Underrated. |
| Democrats Have A Whac-A-Mole Problem In The Senate |
| Politics Podcast: No, The Model Doesn’t Care About The Early Vote |
| The Battleground In The House Is Really Big — And That Makes Life Hard For Republicans |
| Election Update: Democrats Need A Systematic Polling Error To Win The Senate |
| Politics Podcast: How To Judge Our Forecasts |
| Republicans Need A Systematic Polling Error To Win The House |
| Final Election Update: Democrats Aren’t Certain To Take The House, But They’re Pretty Clear Favorites |
| Emergency Podcast: Sessions Is Out |
| The 2018 Map Looked A Lot Like 2012 … And That Got Me Thinking About 2020 |
| Midterms Review |
| Politics Podcast: What The Midterms Taught Us About America |
| A Post-Midterms 2020 Draft... Live! |
| Politics Podcast: A Post-Midterms 2020 Draft … Live! |
| How Our Model Did |
| Politics Podcast: How Our Forecasts Did In 2018 |
| Will Pelosi Be Replaced? |
| Trump’s Base Isn’t Enough |
| Can A Democrat Win In Mississippi? |
| This Is Mueller Talk! |
| Emergency Podcast: Cohen Is Cooperating With Mueller |
| Something Is Fishy In North Carolina |
| How FiveThirtyEight’s 2018 Midterm Forecasts Did |
| Trump's Turbulent Week |
| The Brexit Episode |
| Should Democrats Play Dirty? |
| Emergency Podcast: Mattis Is Out, Shutdown Is On (?) |
| Our 2018 Politics Awards |
| The Gerrymandering Project: Arizona |
| How Elizabeth Warren Could Win |
| The 5 Corners Of The 2020 Democratic Primary |
| Will Trump Face A Primary Challenge? |
| Why Harris And O’Rourke May Have More Upside Than Sanders And Biden |
| How Julian Castro Could Win |
| How 17 Long-Shot Presidential Contenders Could Build A Winning Coalition |
| How Kirsten Gillibrand Could Win |
| Will The Shutdown Hurt Trump’s Re-election Chances? |
| Emergency Podcast: The Suborn Identity |
| How Kamala Harris Could Win |
| What To Make Of Roger Stone's Indictment |
| How President Trump Is Like A Terrible Poker Player |
| Shutdown Lessons (And 2020 Announcements) |
| Politics Podcast: Lessons From The Government Shutdown (And More 2020 Announcements) |
| Do Americans Want A Candidate Like Howard Schultz? |
| Politics Podcast: Do Americans Want A Candidate Like Howard Schultz? |
| The Perot Effect |
| The Politics Of Taxing The Rich |
| Socially Liberal, Fiscally Conservative Voters Preferred Trump In 2016 |
| Why I’m More Interested Than Usual In Tonight’s State Of The Union |
| The Mess In Virginia |
| How Amy Klobuchar Could Win The 2020 Democratic Nomination |
| How Amy Klobuchar Could Win |
| Everyone’s Running — And That Could Be Dangerous For The Democrats |
| National Emergency Podcast |
| Politics Podcast: Trump Plans To Declare A National Emergency |
| Trump Keeps Doubling Down On The Same Failed Strategy |
| Could Congress Block Trump’s Emergency Declaration? |
| How Bernie Sanders Could Win |
| How Bernie’s 2020 Map Might Change Without The #NeverHillary Vote |
| All The President's Investigations |
| Relievers Have Broken Baseball. We Have A Plan To Fix It. |
| Our Best (Or Worst) Show |
| What We Learned From Cohen's Testimony |
| We’re Tracking 2020 Presidential Endorsements. Here’s Why They Probably Still Matter. |
| How Our 2020 Presidential Endorsement Tracker Worked |
| Should We Cancel The Electoral College? |
| Is Beto O’Rourke Overrated Or Underrated? |
| Iowa And New Hampshire Can Go To Hell |
| How Divided Are Democrats? |
| Joe Biden’s And Bernie Sanders’s Support Isn’t Just About Name Recognition |
| How Beto O'Rourke Could Win |
| The Moment Of Truth For Brexit |
| 2019 March Madness Predictions |
| How Our March Madness Predictions Work |
| How Our March Madness Predictions Work |
| Is Beto O’Rourke Learning How To Troll The Media? |
| Ranking 2020 Rollouts |
| Live From NY: It's A 2020 Draft! |
| Emergency Podcast: Mueller Has Filed His Report |
| First Thoughts On The Political Fallout Of The Mueller Report |
| Life After The Mueller Report |
| Here’s How We’re Defining A ‘Major’ Presidential Candidate |
| Can Statistics Solve Gerrymandering? |
| What Will Biden Do? |
| Why Trump Hasn’t Seen A Post-Mueller Boost In The Polls |
| The Electoral College Episode |
| When We Say 70 Percent, It Really Means 70 Percent |
| Do Democrats Want An Outsider In 2020? |
| How Good Are FiveThirtyEight Forecasts? |
| Politics Podcast: We Evaluated All Of Our Forecast Models. They’re Reliable. |
| The State Of The Democratic Primary |
| Silver Bulletpoints: We’ve Got Your Backlash To The Buttigieg Backlash |
| Emergency Podcast: The Mueller Report |
| We Have The Mueller Report. Now What? |
| Bernie Sanders Can Win, But He Isn’t Polling Like A Favorite |
| How Joe Biden Could Win The 2020 Democratic Primary |
| How Joe Biden Could Win |
| Silver Bulletpoints: I’m Revising My 2020 Tiers To Better Match The Polling |
| Peto Buttichar 2020 |
| Does Biden’s Polling Bounce Mean Anything? |
| Mueller's Letter To Barr |
| Politics Podcast: Mueller’s Letter Puts Barr In The Hot Seat |
| Silver Bulletpoints: The Union Vote Could Swing The Election |
| Live From Austin: Will Texas Be A Battleground In 2020? |
| Silver Bulletpoints: The 4 Meta-Messages Of The 2020 Campaign |
| Live From Houston: What Happened To The Bush GOP? |
| The Politics Of Impeaching Trump |
| Politics Podcast: Should Democrats Worry About The Downsides Of Impeaching Trump? |
| Silver Bulletpoints: Why Did All The White Guys Stampede Into The Race So Late? |
| Why Some States Are Passing New Abortion Restrictions |
| Have Americans Changed Their Minds On Abortion? |
| Silver Bulletpoints: Are More Moderate Democrats More Electable? |
| What We Can Learn From Tracking Trump's Falsehoods |
| Is Pelosi's Trump Strategy Working? |
| Are The Raptors Really Favorites Against The Warriors? |
| Silver Bulletpoints: Who’s In Danger Of Missing The Third Debate? |
| Are Nationalist Victories Around The World Connected? |
| Are Voters Sexist? |
| Politics Podcast: How Candidates Are Handling The ‘Electability’ Question |
| Bernie Sanders Has The Highest Floor — And It’s Pretty Damn Low |
| The D.C. Statehood Episode |
| Is Elizabeth Warren Surging? |
| Politics Podcast: Is Elizabeth Warren Surging? |
| Silver Bulletpoints: Iowans Seem To Like Warren And Buttigieg |
| A Republican Strategist's Guide To 2020 |
| Who Is Persuadable In 2020? |
| Politics Podcast: Who Are The Swing Voters In 2020? |
| Bulletpoint: Only Two Meaningful Shifts Have Happened In The Democratic Primary So Far |
| Bulletpoint: How To Tell When Biden Has Committed A Real Gaffe |
| Bulletpoint: Is Electability A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy? |
| What's At Stake In The Final Week Of SCOTUS Decisions |
| Do You Buy That … Warren Is A 2020 Favorite? |
| Lanes Emerge In The Democratic Primary |
| Politics Podcast: Are Lanes Emerging In The Democratic Primary? |
| What Went Down At The First Democratic Debate |
| Politics Podcast: What Happened On Night One Of The First Democratic Debates |
| Harris Wins Narrative. We'll See About The Voters. |
| Politics Podcast: Kamala Harris Won The Debate Narrative. What Comes Next? |
| Do You Buy That … Going Too Far Left On Health Care Could Hurt Democrats In 2020? |
| The Verdict On The Debates |
| Do You Buy That … Texas Could Be A Swing State In 2020? |
| Is Biden Still The Front-Runner? |
| A Better Way To Evaluate NBA Defense |
| A Midsummer Overview Of The Democratic Field |
| Exit Interview: Eric Swalwell |
| Do You Buy That … Tom Steyer Can Break Through? |
| Trump's Racist Tweets |
| Politics Podcast: Trump’s Racist Tweets |
| 2019-20 NBA Predictions |
| 2019-20 NBA Predictions — 76Ers |
| 2019-20 NBA Predictions — Bucks |
| 2019-20 NBA Predictions — Bulls |
| 2019-20 NBA Predictions — Cavaliers |
| 2019-20 NBA Predictions — Celtics |
| 2019-20 NBA Predictions — Clippers |
| 2019-20 NBA Predictions — Games |
| 2019-20 NBA Predictions — Grizzlies |
| 2019-20 NBA Predictions — Hawks |
| 2019-20 NBA Predictions — Heat |
| 2019-20 NBA Predictions — Hornets |
| 2019-20 NBA Predictions — Jazz |
| 2019-20 NBA Predictions — Kings |
| 2019-20 NBA Predictions — Knicks |
| 2019-20 NBA Predictions — Lakers |
| 2019-20 NBA Predictions — Magic |
| 2019-20 NBA Predictions — Mavericks |
| 2019-20 NBA Predictions — Nets |
| 2019-20 NBA Predictions — Nuggets |
| 2019-20 NBA Predictions — Pacers |
| 2019-20 NBA Predictions — Pelicans |
| 2019-20 NBA Predictions — Pistons |
| 2019-20 NBA Predictions — Raptors |
| 2019-20 NBA Predictions — Rockets |
| 2019-20 NBA Predictions — Spurs |
| 2019-20 NBA Predictions — Suns |
| 2019-20 NBA Predictions — Thunder |
| 2019-20 NBA Predictions — Timberwolves |
| 2019-20 NBA Predictions — Trail Blazers |
| 2019-20 NBA Predictions — Warriors |
| 2019-20 NBA Predictions — Wizards |
| Bulletpoint: Does Kamala Harris Need A Win Before California? |
| Bulletpoint: Bernie Sanders Is Running Ahead Of The Pack On Health Care |
| Who's Going To Win Pennsylvania In 2020? |
| Bulletpoint: Beto O’Rourke Doesn’t Have A Base |
| Do You Buy That … Fundraising Matters More Than Polling In The 2020 Race? |
| Racial Resentment As A Political Strategy |
| Politics Podcast: Racial Resentment As A Political Strategy |
| Mueller Talks |
| Kamala Harris’s Debate Bounce Is Fading |
| Medicare For All Isn’t That Popular — Even Among Democrats |
| Do You Buy That … The Democratic Primary Debates Determine The Nominee? |
| 15 Percent Is Not A Magic Number For Primary Delegates |
| Are Democrats Moving Too Far Left? |
| Politics Podcast: Are Democrats Moving Too Far Left? |
| Democrats Battle It Out |
| Where I Think The Candidates Stand After The Second Debate |
| Live From Detroit: The State Of The Race Post-Debates |
| Live From Detroit: The Post-Debate State Of The Primary |
| Is The Field Too Big For Kamala Harris? |
| Can Trump's Words Incite Violence? |
| Politics Podcast: Can Trump’s Words Incite Violence? |
| Polls Since The Second Debate Show Kamala Harris Slipping |
| "The Best Pollster In Politics" |
| Forget ‘Lanes.’ The Democratic Primary Is A Whole Freaking Transit System. |
| Do You Buy That … A Tipping Point Has Been Reached On Support For Gun Control? |
| How Much Does Iowa Matter? |
| Politics Podcast: How Much Does Iowa Matter? |
| Trump's Trade War Puts His Biggest Asset At Risk |
| Voters Care About Biden’s Age — Not About His Gaffes |
| Do You Buy That … Iowa Is A Make-Or-Break State For Democrats? |
| Elizabeth Warren's Comeback |
| The 2019 Elections |
| Do You Buy That … Trump’s China Tariffs Are A Threat To His Re-Election? |
| Joe Biden Has An Iowa Problem, Not An Enthusiasm Problem |
| The Winnowing Begins |
| Politics Podcast: The Winnowing Begins |
| A Constitutional Crisis In Britain? |
| Do You Buy That … Crowd Size Really Matters? |
| How To Handle An Outlier Poll |
| And Then There Were Ten |
| Politics Podcast: What A 10-Person Democratic Debate Means |
| 2019 NFL Predictions |
| 2019 NFL Predictions — Games |
| 2019 NFL Predictions — Quarterbacks |
| The Gerrymandering Fight Moves To The States |
| Do You Buy That … The Democratic Field Is Down To A Big Three? |
| Is It Really A Three-Candidate Race? |
| How To Own The Debate |
| Politics Podcast: How To Win This Week’s Debate |
| If You’re Polling In The Low Single Digits, You’re Probably Toast |
| What Went Down In The Third Democratic Debate |
| Politics Podcast: What Happened When The Front-Runners Were All On Stage |
| Do You Buy That … There Was No Clear Winner From The Third Democratic Debate? |
| The State Of *Both* 2020 Primaries |
| Politics Podcast: How Both Parties’ 2020 Primaries Are Going |
| We Ran Into Andrew Yang At The Airport |
| Politics Podcast: We Ran Into Andrew Yang At The Airport |
| 2019 College Football Predictions |
| There’s A Better Case For A Top 2 Than A Top 3 |
| Are Democrats Ready To Impeach Trump? |
| Politics Podcast: Are Democrats Ready To Impeach Trump? |
| Impeaching Trump On Russia Was Unpopular. Will Ukraine Be Different? |
| What An Impeachment Inquiry Might Mean |
| Politics Podcast: Why Pelosi Announced An Impeachment Inquiry |
| If This Is Trump’s Best Case, The Ukraine Scandal Is Looking Really Bad For Him |
| The Whistleblower's Complaint |
| Do You Buy That … Public Opinion On Impeachment Is Shifting? |
| Impeachment Is Becoming More Popular |
| Politics Podcast: Impeachment Is Becoming More Popular |
| How TV's Evolution Explains Our Politics |
| Do You Buy That … Impeachment Will Energize Trump’s Base And Boost Him In 2020? |
| Is Ukraine Getting Worse For Trump? |
| Politics Podcast: Is Ukraine Getting Worse For Trump? |
| NBA Player Projections |
| NBA Player Projections — Andre Drummond |
| NBA Player Projections — Damian Lillard |
| NBA Player Projections — Davis Bertans |
| NBA Player Projections — Demar Derozan |
| NBA Player Projections — Giannis Antetokounmpo |
| NBA Player Projections — Lebron James |
| How Our RAPTOR Metric Works |
| Introducing RAPTOR, Our New Metric For The Modern NBA |
| Impeachment 101 |
| Warren’s Rise Hasn’t Come At Biden’s Expense |
| Do You Buy That … Age Will Be A Factor In Determining The Democratic Nominee? |
| What To Look For In The 4th Debate |
| Politics Podcast: What To Look For In The Fourth Democratic Debate |
| Warren In The Hot Seat |
| Politics Podcast: Elizabeth Warren Gets A Turn In The Hot Seat |
| How The AOC And Omar Endorsements Could Matter |
| Do You Buy That … 2020 Endorsements Matter? |
| Medicare For Fall |
| Politics Podcast: Why Medicare For All Has Become A Lightning Rod |
| The Taylor Testimony |
| Politics Podcast: What The Latest Impeachment Testimony Means For The White House |
| Do You Buy That … Democratic Voters Want A New 2020 Candidate? |
| What Should Republicans Do? |
| Exit Interview: Tim Ryan |
| Do You Buy That … Today’s Polls Show Who Will Win The Democratic Nomination? |
| Free-For-All In Iowa |
| The State Of The Polls, 2019 |
| National Polls And State Polls Show Pretty Much The Same Thing |
| What The 2019 Election Results Mean |
| The Best NBA Players This Season, According To RAPTOR |
| Do You Buy That … Last Week’s Governors Races Are Reason For Trump To Panic? |
| The FiveThirtyNATE Podcast |
| Politics Podcast: Could Trump Lose The Popular Vote And Win, Again? |
| Public Impeachment Hearings Begin |
| Yovanovich Testifies, Trump Attacks |
| Do You Buy That … It’s Too Late For Deval Patrick To Really Have A Chance? |
| The Buttigieg Bump 2.0 |
| Politics Podcast: About Buttigieg … And That Iowa Poll |
| Impeachment Hearings Day 3: The Phone Call |
| Impeachment Hearings Day 4: Sondland Testifies |
| What Went Down In The 5th Democratic Debate |
| Politics Podcast: How The Fifth Democratic Debate Could Affect The Race |
| Do You Buy That … Buttigieg And Klobuchar Can Win As Moderates? |
| A Very FiveThirtyEight Thanksgiving |
| Politics Podcast: A Very FiveThirtyEight Thanksgiving |
| Do You Buy That … A Strong Economy Boosts Trump’s Reelection Chances? |
| Is The Party Deciding? |
| Politics Podcast: Is The Party Deciding? |
| Emergency Podcast: Harris Drops Out |
| Politics Podcast: Why Harris Dropped Out |
| The Legal Experts And The Polls |
| Do You Buy That … Kamala Harris’s 2020 Exit Helps Biden? |
| The Primary According To The Early States |
| Politics Podcast: The Democratic Primary, According To The Early States |
| What Makes Our New 2020 Democratic Primary Polling Averages Different |
| Conservatives Win Big In The UK Election |
| Do You Buy That … Bernie Sanders Still Has A Shot At The Democratic Nomination? |
| Do Voters' Second Choices Matter? |
| Politics Podcast: Do Voters’ Second Choices Matter In The Democratic Primary? |
| The House Impeaches President Trump |
| Eggnog And Listener Questions |
| Do You Buy That … Spending A Lot Of Money On Ads Can Help Win the Democratic Nomination? |
| Do You Buy That… Spending A Lot Of Money On Ads Can Help Win the Democratic Nomination? |
| The Biggest Political Moments Of 2019 |
| Politics Podcast: Biggest Political Moments Of 2019. Key Questions For 2020. |
| How The Iran Conflict Could Affect 2020 |
| Politics Podcast: How The Iran Conflict Could Affect The 2020 Election |
| The Primaries Project: How 1968 Changed Everything |
| 2020 Democratic Primary: Who will win the New Hampshire primary? |
| Who Will Win The 2020 Democratic Primary? |
| How Our Primary Model Works |
| Biden Is The Front-Runner, But There’s No Clear Favorite |
| Model Talk: The Primary Forecast Is Live |
| Politics Podcast: The Primary Forecast Is Live, And ‘Model Talk’ Returns |
| Election Update: Sanders Now Leads A Wide-Open Iowa Race |
| A Four-Way Pileup In Iowa |
| Politics Podcast: A Four-Way Pileup In Iowa |
| Election Update: Two New Polls Show Biden’s Upside Scenario |
| The Last Pre-Iowa Debate |
| Politics Podcast: The Candidates Took On Electability In Their Final Pre-Iowa Debate |
| The Primaries Project: The Effects Of Reform |
| Election Update: Why Warren Needs To Play To Win — And That Includes Beating Sanders |
| Election Update: The First Post-Debate Polls Are In! And They’re … Pretty Weird. |
| Live From DC: America's Favorite Sandwich |
| Politics Podcast: The Electoral Cases For — And Against — The Four Leading Democrats |
| How Senators Are Calculating Impeachment Politics |
| Election Update: It’s Cherry-Picking Season |
| The Primaries Project: There's Gotta Be A Better System...Right? |
| Election Update: What Are The Chances Of A Brokered Convention? |
| Do You Buy That … The Campaigns Are Making A Mistake By Going Negative? |
| The Sanders Surge |
| Politics Podcast: Bernie Sanders Is Gaining Ground One Week Before Iowa |
| When Women Run |
| The Iowa Caucuses Are In 4 Days. Almost Anything Could Still Happen. |
| Stacey Abrams Thinks She'll Be President By 2040 |
| Model Talk: What To Expect From The Iowa Caucuses |
| How Iowa’s Three Different Votes Could Affect Who ‘Wins’ |
| Are The Iowa Caucuses A Two-Way Race? |
| Politics Podcast: What To Expect From The Iowa Caucuses |
| 89 Different Scenarios For What Things Could Look Like After Iowa |
| Chaos In Iowa |
| Iowa Might Have Screwed Up The Whole Nomination Process |
| Politics Podcast: Chaos In Iowa |
| Buttigieg And/Or Sanders Are Going To Win Iowa. What Happens Next? |
| Our Post-Iowa Primary Forecast Is Up, And Biden’s Chances Are Down |
| The Results In Iowa |
| Politics Podcast: What We Know About The Democratic Primary After Iowa |
| The Calendar Isn’t Helping Biden, But His Iowa Performance Points To Bigger Problems |
| Election Update: There’s A New Face In Our Forecast. (It’s Bloomberg.) |
| Live From The New Hampshire Debate |
| Live From Manchester: A New Hampshire Preview |
| Live From Manchester: The Politics Podcast Previews The New Hampshire Primary |
| 28 Scenarios For What Things Could Look Like After New Hampshire |
| Bernie Sanders Wins New Hampshire |
| Sanders Is The Front-Runner After New Hampshire, And A Contested Convention Has Become More Likely |
| Politics Podcast: Sanders Won The New Hampshire Vote. So How Did ‘Klobucharge’ Win The Narrative? |
| Model Talk: The Chance Of Chaos Increases |
| Politics Podcast: Post-New Hampshire, ‘No One’ Is On The Rise |
| Does Sanders Have A Ceiling? Maybe. Can He Win Anyway? Yes. |
| Do You Buy That … A Contested Convention Is A Real Possibility? |
| Can Bloomberg Win?! |
| Politics Podcast: Can Michael Bloomberg Win?! |
| We Fixed An Issue With How Our Primary Forecast Was Calculating Candidates’ Demographic Strengths |
| Bloomberg Stumbles In Chaotic Debate |
| Politics Podcast: Just How Bad Was That Debate For Bloomberg? |
| The Debate Exposed Bloomberg’s Downside — But It Was There All Along |
| Bernie Sanders Wins Nevada — Putting Him In The Driver’s Seat To Win The Nomination |
| Sanders Wins Big In Nevada |
| Politics Podcast: What Sanders’s Big Nevada Win Means For The Rest Of The Race |
| What Went Down In The South Carolina Debate |
| How Rep. James Clyburn Settled On Endorsing Biden |
| Politics Podcast: Biden Fights For A Win In The South Carolina Debate |
| What The Race Looks Like If Biden Wins — Or Wins Big, Or Loses — In South Carolina |
| Biden Wins Big In South Carolina |
| What Biden’s Big South Carolina Win Might Mean For Sanders |
| Politics Podcast: How Biden Made A Comeback In South Carolina |
| Election Update: Buttigieg Dropping Out Isn’t Good For Sanders |
| What's At Stake On Super Tuesday |
| Politics Podcast: What’s At Stake On Super Tuesday |
| Our Final Forecast For Super Tuesday Shows Biden’s Surge — And Lots Of Uncertainty |
| Five Scenarios For How Super Tuesday Could Go |
| Biden Won Super Tuesday. What Now? |
| Emergency Podcast: Warren Drops Out |
| Emergency Politics Podcast: Warren Drops Out Of The Democratic Primary |
| After Super Tuesday, Joe Biden Is A Clear Favorite To Win The Nomination |
| Model Talk: Biden Is A Clear Favorite |
| Politics Podcast: Why Biden Is Now A Big Favorite |
| Do You Buy That … Michigan Is Make-Or-Break For Bernie Sanders? |
| Is Even Coronavirus Partisan? |
| Politics Podcast: What Are The Political Repercussions Of The Coronavirus? |
| Michigan Might Not Be As Sanders-Friendly This Time |
| 3 Ways The Next 2 Weeks Could Go: Even The Best Case Scenario For Sanders Doesn’t Look So Great |
| The Democratic Primary Is No Longer Competitive |
| Politics Podcast: Is The Democratic Primary Over? |
| Election Update: Sanders Needs Something Extraordinary To Happen |
| Biden And Sanders Debate Amid Pandemic |
| Politics Podcast: Biden And Sanders Face Off Amid Coronavirus Crisis |
| Coronavirus, Uncertainty, Politics |
| Politics Podcast: How Uncertainty Around The Coronavirus Affects Our Life And Politics |
| How COVID-19 Affected Tuesday's Vote |
| How COVID-19 Is Changing The Economy |
| How COVID-19 Is -- And Isn't -- Changing Politics |
| Politics Podcast: How COVID-19 Is — And Isn’t — Changing Politics |
| Trump’s Reelection May Hinge On The Economy — And Coronavirus |
| COVID-19 Broke The Jobless Claims Chart |
| The Coronavirus Isn’t Just A Blue State Problem |
| Why Trump's Approval Rating Has Increased |
| Politics Podcast: Why Trump’s Approval Rating Has Increased |
| Why It's So Hard To Forecast The Impact Of COVID-19 |
| Coronavirus Case Counts Are Meaningless* |
| Wisconsin's Election Is A Mess |
| Politics Podcast: Wisconsin’s Election Is A Mess |
| Emergency Podcast: Sanders Drops Out |
| Politics Podcast: Bernie Sanders Suspends His Campaign For President |
| Sanders — And The Media — Learned The Wrong Lessons From Trump In 2016 |
| Do You Buy That … Social Distancing Is Working To Help Flatten The Curve? |
| Our 2020 Election Priors |
| Politics Podcast: These Are Our Priors For The General Election |
| Has New York Bent The Curve? |
| How To Hold An Election During A Crisis |
| Do You Buy That … Early COVID-19 Models Are Too Pessimistic? |
| What Is Motivating The COVID-19 Protests? |
| Politics Podcast: What Is Motivating The COVID-19 Protests? |
| Model Talk: Forecasting The Toll Of COVID-19 |
| Politics Podcast: How One Modeler Is Trying To Forecast The Toll Of COVID-19 |
| How One Modeler Is Trying To Forecast The Toll Of COVID-19 |
| Coronavirus Cases Are Still Growing In Many U.S. States |
| Do You Buy That … The United States Has Gotten Over The Coronavirus Hump? |
| Is COVID-19 Already Hurting Trump Politically? |
| Politics Podcast: Is Trump Slipping In The Polls Because Of COVID-19? |
| Is Trump Slipping In The Polls Because Of COVID-19? |
| The U.S. Is Starting To Reopen. Is It Ready? |
| Do You Buy That … Democrats Could Win The Senate In 2020? |
| Biden Responds To Sexual Assault Allegation |
| Politics Podcast: Biden Responds To Sexual Assault Allegation |
| How Democrats Are Responding To The Sexual Assault Allegation Against Biden |
| What The 14.7% Unemployment Rate Means |
| Do You Buy That … Voters Will Blame Trump For The Bad Economy? |
| Americans, Not Politicians, Will Decide How We Reopen |
| Politics Podcast: Americans, Not Politicians, Will Decide When We Reopen |
| Does The U.S. Have A Coronavirus Recovery Plan? |
| Why COVID-19 Conspiracy Theories Are Spreading |
| Do You Buy That … COVID-19 Deaths Are Overestimated? |
| Does Trump Really Want A Fight With Obama? |
| Politics Podcast: Coronavirus Is Becoming Even More Partisan |
| Does Trump Really Want A Fight With Obama? |
| One Virus, A World Full Of Responses |
| Do You Buy That … Biden Should Pick A Running Mate From A Swing State? |
| Questions About Biden And Trump's Bases |
| Politics Podcast: Questions About The Parties’ Bases |
| Does Trump Really Have Unique Appeal Among Working-Class Whites? |
| What Biden's VP Picks Say About Him |
| The Data Behind Police Violence |
| Politics Podcast: The Data Behind Police Violence |
| How The Protests Against Police Brutality Could Shape Electoral Politics |
| Protests, Then And Now |
| Do You Buy That … The Location Of A Presidential Nominating Convention Matters? |
| Americans Don't Like How Trump Is Handling Multiple Crises |
| Politics Podcast: Americans Disapprove Of How Trump Is Handling The Pandemic And The Protests |
| Trump’s Standing In The Polls Has Worsened |
| The Protests Appear To Be Working |
| Views Of BLM Have Shifted. What Happens Next? |
| Politics Podcast: Public Opinion Of The Black Lives Matter Movement Has Shifted. What Happens Next? |
| Will The Shifting Views On Police And Racism Last? |
| Our New Polling Averages Show Biden Leads Trump By 9 Points Nationally |
| Model Talk: Biden Leads Trump By 9 Nationally |
| Do You Buy That … Trump Can Win In 2020 By Relying On The Midwest? |
| Progressives Challenge The Democratic Establishment |
| Politics Podcast: Progressives Challenge The Democratic Establishment In New York And Kentucky |
| Progressives Could Finally Win Something In New York And Kentucky |
| New Voter Registrations Have Nosedived During COVID-19 |
| Do You Buy That … Trump Should Be Worried About The Recent Polls? |
| Biden Is Currently Competitive In Georgia And Texas |
| Politics Podcast: Biden Is Currently Competitive In Georgia And Texas |
| If Texas Is Competitive, Trump Has Problems |
| How The GOP Chose To Be A White Party |
| Do You Buy That … Masks Could Help Trump Politically? |
| How Trump Could Improve His Electoral Odds |
| Politics Podcast: How Republicans Could Boost Their Chances In November |
| How Trump Could Improve His Electoral Odds |
| Conservatives Didn’t Get The SCOTUS They Wanted This Term |
| Do You Buy That … Voter Enthusiasm Will Help Trump In 2020? |
| COVID-19 Deaths Are Rising. What Will The U.S. Do? |
| Politics Podcast: COVID-19 Deaths Are Rising. What Will The U.S. Do? |
| COVID-19 Deaths Are Increasing. Americans Disagree With Trump On What To Do About It. |
| White Democrats Are Wary Of Big Ideas To Address Racial Inequality |
| Do You Buy That … Mail-In Voting Will Hurt Republicans? |
| There Aren't Secret Trump Voters |
| The U.S. Still Isn't Prepared For A Pandemic Election |
| Do You Buy That … Coronavirus Will Be What Makes Or Breaks Trump’s Re-election Prospects? |
| Biden's VP Pick Could Be Days Away |
| Politics Podcast: Biden’s VP Announcement Could Come Any Day Now |
| How Biden’s VP Pick Could Shape Perceptions Of The Ticket Overall |
| A GOP Congressman Who Might Not Vote For Trump |
| Do You Buy That … We Could See A Delay In Election Results? |
| It's Not Just The Economy, Stupid |
| Politics Podcast: Can Economic Data Predict Elections? |
| The GDP Data Is Terrible. That Doesn’t Mean Trump Is Bound To Lose. |
| Do You Buy That … Kamala Harris Is Most Likely To Become Biden’s Running Mate? |
| The Tokenization Of The Veepstakes |
| Politics Podcast: The Veepstakes Are Almost Over |
| How Biden’s Standing In The Polls Compares To Clinton’s At This Point In 2016 |
| Emergency Podcast: Harris Is Biden's VP Pick |
| 2020 Election Forecast |
| 2020 Election Forecast — New Mexico |
| 2020 House Forecast |
| 2020 Senate Election Forecast |
| 2020 Senate Election Forecast — Senate Iowa |
| 2020 Senate Election Forecast — Senate Maine |
| It’s Way Too Soon To Count Trump Out |
| How FiveThirtyEight’s 2020 Presidential Forecast Works — And What’s Different Because Of COVID-19 |
| Model Talk: The 2020 Forecast Is Live! |
| Politics Podcast: The 2020 Presidential Forecast Is Live! |
| Model Talk: How The 2020 Presidential Forecast Works |
| Nate Silver Introduces The 2020 Election Forecast |
| Our Election Forecast Didn’t Say What I Thought It Would |
| Do You Buy That … Trump Still Has A Clear Path To Re-election? |
| Michelle Obama Rips Trump In DNC Night One |
| Politics Podcast: Michelle Obama Ripped President Trump On Night One Of The Convention |
| Sanders And Kasich’s DNC Speeches Show Democrats Are Going After All Kinds Of Voters |
| DNC Night 2: Democrats Aren't Sure Who They Are |
| DNC Night 3: Harris Fills A Historic Role |
| DNC Night 4: Biden Pitches Himself As A Good Guy |
| Politics Podcast: Biden Pitches Himself As The Good Guy |
| Does Biden Have The Broad Appeal He Thinks He Does? |
| Do You Buy That … Trump’s Reelection Chances Are Improving? |
| RNC Night 1: Trumpism vs. Traditionalism |
| Politics Podcast: It Was Trumpism vs. Traditionalism At Night 1 Of The RNC |
| Who Were Republicans Trying To Reach On Night 1 Of The RNC? |
| RNC Night 2: Cognitive Dissonance |
| RNC Night 3: Pence Makes A Law And Order Appeal |
| RNC Night 4: How Trump Used His 5,680 Words |
| Politics Podcast: What Trump’s RNC Speech Means For The Next Two Months |
| What Trump Didn’t Say In His RNC Speech Is As Important As What He Did Say |
| Do You Buy That … Backlash Against The Protests Helps Trump? |
| The Media Is Getting Ahead Of Itself On Kenosha |
| Politics Podcast: We Don’t Know Yet Whether Unrest In Kenosha And Portland Will Help Trump |
| There’s Not Enough Evidence Yet To Know Whether Unrest In Kenosha And Portland Will Affect The Election |
| Model Talk: Trump's Electoral College Advantage |
| Politics Podcast: If Biden Wins The Popular Vote By 2-3 Points, He Isn’t Favored To Win The Electoral College |
| Trump Has An Electoral College Advantage Again This Cycle |
| The 2020 Electoral Map Could Get Interesting |
| Politics Podcast: The 2020 Electoral Map Could Get Weird |
| States That Are Not Normally Competitive Are Competitive In 2020 |
| How Ohio Is Preparing For A Pandemic Election |
| Do You Buy That … Donald Trump Is Performing Well With Hispanic Voters? |
| Trump Narrows The Gap With Latino Voters |
| Politics Podcast: Trump Is Narrowing The Gap With Latino Voters |
| Why Some Latino Voters Are Backing Trump |
| Democrats Are Slight Favorites To Take Back The Senate |
| Model Talk: Democrats Are Slightly Favored To Win The Senate |
| Why Our Forecast Says Democrats Are Slightly Favored To Win The Senate |
| Politics Podcast: Our 2020 Senate Forecast Is Live! |
| Emergency Podcast: The SCOTUS Vacancy |
| Politics Podcast: How A Supreme Court Vacancy Will Shape The Election |
| Will The Supreme Court Be The Most Important Issue For Voters In 2020? |
| The Senate’s Rural Skew Makes It Very Hard For Democrats To Win The Supreme Court |
| What Comes Next In The Fight To Fill Ginsburg’s Seat |
| Politics Podcast: What Comes Next In The Fight To Fill Ginsburg’s Seat |
| The Potential Pitfalls In Rushing To Confirm A New Supreme Court Justice |
| Think The Electoral College Is Unfair To Democrats? Try The Senate. |
| What State Polls Can Tell Us About The National Race |
| Trump Refuses To Commit To A Peaceful Transfer Of Power |
| Politics Podcast: Trump Refuses To Commit To A Peaceful Transfer Of Power |
| How Far Could Trump Go To Undermine The Election Results? |
| Do You Buy That … Democrats Have An Edge With Five Weeks To Go Until The Elections? |
| The Politics Of Trump's Tax Returns |
| Politics Podcast: Trump’s Tax Returns Challenge His Successful Businessman Image |
| A Majority Of Americans Say They Want To Know What Is In Trump’s Tax Returns. Now They Do. |
| Trump Interrupts To Point Of Chaos In First Debate |
| Politics Podcast: Trump Interrupts To Point Of Chaos In First Debate |
| The Debate Was One Of The Few Opportunities For Trump To Shake Up The Race. He Probably Didn’t. |
| Trump’s Chances Are Dwindling. That Could Make Him Dangerous. |
| Is The Supreme Court Losing Legitimacy? |
| Emergency Podcast: Trump Tests Positive For COVID-19 |
| Emergency Politics Podcast: Trump Tests Positive For COVID-19 |
| Trump Tested Positive For COVID-19. Now What? |
| Biden Has Made Some Modest Gains After The Debate |
| What We Know About The President's Health |
| The Economy Was Trump’s One Remaining Advantage. Now He Might Have Blown It. |
| Trump Has Three Big Problems Heading Toward Election Day |
| Pence And Harris Evade Questions In VP Debate |
| The Vice Presidential Debate Was Civil. But Did It Shake Up The Race? |
| Model Talk: Trump's Position Worsens |
| Politics Podcast: How The Model Is Responding To Biden’s Double-Digit Lead In The Polls |
| The Politics Podcast Answers Your Questions About The Forecast |
| Do You Buy That … Biden Is Gaining With Older Voters? |
| The Sun Belt Could Decide Control Of The Senate |
| Politics Podcast: The Road To A Senate Majority Runs Through The Sun Belt |
| How President Trump Could Still Win Reelection |
| Will Georgia Turn Blue? |
| What We Learned From The Amy Coney Barrett Hearings |
| Model Talk: Why Democrats' Chances Of Winning The Senate Have Increased |
| Politics Podcast: Why Democrats’ Chances Of Winning The Senate Have Increased |
| How Does Early Voting Affect The Forecast? And Other Listener Questions. |
| 8 Tips To Stay Sane In The Final 15 Days Of The Campaign |
| Do You Buy That … Republicans Should Be Worried About The Early Voting Turnout So Far? |
| Embrace The Uncertainty |
| Politics Podcast: Why Biden’s Lead Is Different |
| What Full Democratic Control Of The White House And Congress Would Look Like |
| The Most Competitive Races In 2020 |
| We’re Letting You Mess With Our Presidential Forecast, But Try Not To Make The Map Too Weird |
| How Voting Is Going So Far |
| The Second Debate Is Over And The Final Stage Of The Campaign Is Here |
| Politics Podcast: The Last Debate Is Over And The Final Stage Of The Campaign Has Begun |
| Will The Race Tighten After The Final Debate? |
| Model Talk: National And District-Level Polls Disagree |
| Politics Podcast: National And District-Level Polls Disagree About How Close The 2020 Election Is |
| Will A Runoff In Georgia Decide Control Of The Senate? And Other Listener Questions. |
| Do You Buy That … We Will Know Who Won On Election Night? |
| October Surprises Don't Usually Decide Elections |
| Politics Podcast: Could Any Surprises Still Affect The Race For President? |
| Surprise! October Surprises Don’t Usually Decide Elections |
| Is Joe Biden Toast If He Loses Pennsylvania? |
| How The Media Projects The Winner Of An Election |
| How We Expect The Electorate To Look In 2020 |
| We Have A Lot Of New Polls, But There’s Little Sign Of The Presidential Race Tightening |
| The Under-Covered Stories Of The 2020 Election |
| Model Talk: There Still Isn't Evidence Of 'Shy' Trump Voters |
| Politics Podcast: There Just Isn’t Good Evidence That ‘Shy’ Trump Voters Exist |
| Why Trump Has A Better Chance Of Winning Pennsylvania Than Wisconsin Or Michigan |
| What Are The Chances We’ll Know The Next President On Election Night? |
| How To Vote Safely In A Pandemic |
| Trump Can Still Win, But The Polls Would Have To Be Off By Way More Than In 2016 |
| What The Deluge Of Final Polls Can Tell Us |
| Politics Podcast: What The Deluge Of Final Polls Can Tell Us |
| We Can’t Believe We Have To Say This, But You Win An Election By Being Ahead When All The Votes Are Counted |
| I’m Here To Remind You That Trump Can Still Win |
| Final Reflections Before The Election |
| Politics Podcast: Final Reflections On The 2020 Campaign Before Election Day |
| Even In The Middle Of A Pandemic, The 2020 Election Has Always Been About Trump |
| Biden’s Favored In Our Final Presidential Forecast, But It’s A Fine Line Between A Landslide And A Nail-Biter |
| The Election Isn't Over |
| Biden's Path To Victory Is Looking Clearer |
| Politics Podcast: Biden’s Path To Victory Is Looking Clearer |
| When Will We Finally Get Results In Unprojected States? |
| Biden Could Soon Win Pennsylvania … And The Presidency |
| Politics Podcast: Biden Could Soon Win Pennsylvania … And The Presidency |
| Biden Appears On The Verge Of Overtaking Trump In Pennsylvania |
| Biden Won — Pretty Convincingly In The End |
| Biden Is Set To Be The Next President |
| Politics Podcast: Biden Is Set To Be President. What Comes Next? |
| This Was A Pretty Good Map For Biden |
| Where The Rest Of The 2020 Races Stand |
| Politics Podcast: Where The Rest Of The 2020 Races Stand |
| Democrats Aren’t Sure Why They Didn’t Do Better In The House And Senate. It Might Not Be Clear For Weeks. |
| The Polls Weren’t Great. But That’s Pretty Normal. |
| Model Talk: Why Polls Were Off In 2020, And Why They Weren’t That Bad |
| Politics Podcast: Why Polls Were Off In 2020, And Why They Weren’t That Bad |
| How The Pandemic Might Have Affected The Polls In 2020 |
| What Divided The Electorate In 2020 |
| Politics Podcast: What Divided The Electorate In 2020 |
| Americans Became More Divided By Class In 2020 |
| Will Georgia Stay Blue? |
| Do You Buy That … COVID-19 Was A Factor In Polls Underestimating Republican Turnout? |
| Trump Is Setting A Dangerous Precedent For American Democracy |
| Politics Podcast: Trump Is Setting A Dangerous Precedent For American Democracy |
| Trump Probably Won’t Be The Last Politician To Reject An Election Outcome Without Evidence |
| Do You Buy That … Suburban Voters Helped Biden? |
| What Happened To Down-Ballot Democrats? |
| Politics Podcast: Why Did Down-Ballot Democrats Have Such A Mediocre Showing? |
| Democrats’ 2020 House And Senate Map Could Spell Trouble In Future Elections |
| How To Make Polls Better |
| Latest Polls Of The Georgia Senate Runoff Elections |
| The Electoral Challenges Facing The GOP |
| Politics Podcast: The Electoral Challenges Facing The Republican Party |
| Why The GOP Isn’t Able To Win The Popular Vote |
| What's The Deal With Pardons? |
| Why Republicans Still Doubt The Election Results |
| Politics Podcast: Why Republicans Still Doubt The Election Results |
| What The Pandemic Revealed About American Politics |
| What Do 1,200 Books About Trump Really Tell Us? |
| Do You Buy That … Trump’s Rhetoric Is Hurting GOP Senate Candidates In Georgia? |
| Why Georgia Isn't Like Other Battleground States |
| Goodbye To 2020 |
| Politics Podcast: Goodbye To 2020 |
| Why Many Pollsters Are Sitting Out The Georgia Runoffs |
| Why A Split Verdict In Georgia Isn’t That Crazy |
| Trump's Fraud Obsession May Hurt The GOP In Georgia |
| Politics Podcast: Trump Has Made The Senate Races In Georgia Harder For Republicans |
| Why Many Republicans Are Still Attempting To Overturn The Election |
| What Will The GOP Do Now? |
| Politics Podcast: What Will The Republican Party Do Now? |
| What Trumpism Has Cost The GOP And The Nation |
| Georgia Was A Disaster For Republicans. It’s Not Clear Where They Can Go Next. |
| What Led To The Attack On The Capitol |
| Why 10 Republicans Voted For Impeachment |
| Did Trump Change The Rules Of Politics? |
| Politics Podcast: Did Trump Change The Rules Of Politics? |
| The Pandemic And The Attack On The Capitol Will Likely Define Trump’s Presidency |
| The Biden Presidency Begins |
| Politics Podcast: The Biden Presidency Begins |
| Is Biden’s Vision Of Unity Possible? |
| Do You Buy That … President Joe Biden Can Unite The Country? |
| Partisans Don't Just Disagree, They Hate One Another |
| Politics Podcast: The Lawmakers Who Will Determine What Gets Through Congress |
| Partisans Don’t Just Disagree, They Hate One Another |
| How Popular Is Joe Biden? |
| The Final Model Talk Of 2020 |
| Politics Podcast: The Final Model Talk Of 2020 |
| How The Georgia Runoffs Changed The ‘Polling Is Broken’ Narrative |
| Do You Buy That … Democrats Have A Chance To Win The Ohio Senate Seat In 2022? |
| Biden's Response To The Pandemic |
| Politics Podcast: Would Voters Abandon The GOP For A ‘Patriot Party’? |
| How Biden’s Response To The Pandemic Is Different From Trump’s |
| What Could The GOP's Future Look Like? |
| What Georgia Republicans' Proposed Voting Restrictions Would Do |
| Politics Podcast: What Georgia Republicans’ Proposed Voting Restrictions Would Do |
| What To Expect From The Senate Impeachment Trial |
| The Meaning Of Democrats' Impeachment Argument |
| Why Seven Republicans Voted To Convict Trump |
| Politics Podcast: Why Democrats Are Done With Iowa And New Hampshire |
| Why Some Republicans Voted To Convict Trump And Others Didn’t |
| How The Crisis In Texas Happened |
| Do You Buy That … Republican Senators Who Voted To Convict Trump Will Lose Their Next Election? |
| Democrats' COVID Relief Bill Is Popular |
| Politics Podcast: Democrats Are More United Today Than The Last Time They Passed Major Legislation |
| The Democrats’ COVID Relief Bill Is Popular. That Doesn’t Mean Republicans Will Vote For It. |
| What The White House Thinks The Economy Needs |
| Is CPAC Representative Of The GOP? |
| How The Black Church Has Shaped American Politics |
| Cuomo's Political Future Is Unclear |
| New Yorkers Don’t Want Cuomo To Resign Or Run For Reelection |
| Why Some Senate Democrats Voted Against Raising The Minimum Wage |
| Did Joe Biden Get Lucky In 2020? |
| Will The Stimulus Bill Boost Democrats' Electoral Prospects? |
| How The Culture Wars Of The 2020s Are Shaping Our Politics |
| The Attacks In Atlanta May Activate Asian Americans Politically |
| Politics Podcast: The Attacks In Atlanta May Activate Asian Americans Politically |
| The Atlanta Attacks Came After A Year Of Data Showed Anti-Asian Incidents On The Rise |
| The Death Of Polling Is Greatly Exaggerated |
| The Gold Standard For Polling Has Changed |
| Politics Podcast: The Gold Standard For Polling Has Changed |
| Do You Buy That … Stricter Voting Laws Will Benefit Republicans? |
| Democrats Are Struggling On Immigration Policy |
| Politics Podcast: Democrats Are Struggling On Immigration Policy |
| What We Know About The New Voting Restrictions Many States Are Considering |
| Elections To Watch In 2021 |
| How Bipartisan Is Democrats' Infrastructure Plan? |
| Will Trump's Gains With Latino Voters Last? |
| Americans Are More Independent But Just As Partisan |
| Politics Podcast: Americans Are More Independent But Just As Partisan |
| Why Support For Gun Control Hasn’t Led To New Legislation |
| How Opinion On Policing Has Changed Since Last Summer |
| Celebrity Candidates Are Here To Stay |
| Americans Are Losing Their Religion. That's Changing Politics. |
| A Majority Of Americans Think Climate Change Should Be A Priority |
| Politics Podcast: How Americans Feel About Vaccination After The Johnson & Johnson Pause |
| A Majority Of Americans Think Climate Change Should Be A Political Priority |
| Biden's First 100 Days |
| Why Democrats Got Shut Out Of A Special Election In Texas |
| How Partisanship Explains Our Pandemic Behavior |
| Politics Podcast: How Partisanship Explains Our Pandemic Behavior |
| How Partisanship Has Made Some Liberals More Cautious About COVID-19 |
| Do You Buy That … A Social Media Ban Hurts Trump’s 2024 Aspirations? |
| If Liz Cheney Doesn't Have A Home In The GOP, Who Does? |
| What Florida’s New Voting Law Signifies About The GOP’s Larger Motivations |
| If Liz Cheney Doesn’t Have A Home In The GOP, Who Does? |
| How Our WNBA Predictions Work |
| Introducing 'In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson' |
| Can You Win A Fight With A Goose? |
| 20 Questions With Nate And Galen |
| How Do You Poll A ‘Ranked Choice Voting’ Election? |
| Politics Podcast: You Asked If Americans Believe In Aliens. We Answered. |
| A Year Of Protest After George Floyd's Death |
| What NYC’s Mayoral Race Can Tell The Rest Of Us |
| Do You Buy That … Lotteries Encourage People To Get Vaccinated? |
| The 2022 Primaries Are Heating Up |
| How The Politics Of Cities Shape The Democratic Party |
| One Special Election Can’t Forecast The Midterms |
| Politics Podcast: One Special Election Can’t Forecast The Midterms |
| How FiveThirtyEight’s 2020 Forecasts Did And What We’ll Be Thinking About For 2022 |
| Why It’s So Hard To Poll People About The Death Penalty |
| How Same-Sex Marriage Broke Through Partisan Politics |
| Do You Buy That … Ranked-Choice Voting Could Change The Outcome Of The NYC Mayoral Race? |
| Will 70 Percent Of Americans Be Vaccinated By July 4? |
| The Democratic Establishment Keeps Winning Elections |
| Why Progressives Have Struggled In The NYC Mayoral Race |
| What Comes Next For Democrats’ Election Legislation |
| Nate And Galen Answer Your Questions |
| Politics Podcast Mailbag Edition: What Alaska And Mars Have In Common |
| Politics Podcast: Summer Mailbag Edition |
| Why Biden Wants A Bipartisan Infrastructure Plan |
| Politics Podcast: Why Biden Wants A Bipartisan Infrastructure Plan |
| Why Republicans Are Starting To Make Their Own Climate Agenda |
| What We Learned From This Supreme Court Term |
| What The Electorate Looked Like In 2020 |
| Why The Conspiracy Theories Behind Jan 6 Haven’t Gone Away |
| Nate Silver’s Takeaways From NYC’s Ranked-Choice Primary Election |
| A Record Number Of Americans Are "Thriving." What Does That Mean? |
| Politics Podcast: A Record Number Of Americans Are ‘Thriving.’ But What Does That Mean? |
| Can’t Wait For The Midterms? Here’s What To Pay Attention To Until 2022. |
| Americans And Experts Agree That Democracy Is Struggling |
| Do You Buy That … President Biden’s Current Approval Rating Should Comfort Democrats? |
| Are There Really Five Political Parties In America? |
| Politics Podcast: Are There Really Five Political Parties In America? |
| What If America Had A Lot More Political Parties? |
| The Great Inflation Debate |
| Does Running For President Always Help Your Career? |
| What Americans Think About Vaccines, Masks And Shutdowns As Covid Cases Spike |
| Why The California Recall Has Grown More Competitive |
| How Democrats Are Reacting To Cuomo's Harassment Scandal |
| Why Has Biden's Approval Rating Fallen? |
| Emergency Podcast: Cuomo Resigns |
| Cuomo Is Resigning. Now What? |
| Why Has Biden’s Approval Rating Fallen? |
| Do You Buy That … The 2020 Census Contained Good News For Democrats? |
| What Americans Think About Ending The War In Afghanistan |
| Model Talk: How Climate Models Work |
| The War In Afghanistan Is Officially Ending. Now What? |
| Why Most Abortions Are Currently Banned In Texas |
| 2021 NFL Predictions — Games |
| 2021 NFL Predictions — Quarterbacks |
| Why A 9/11-Era Political Consensus Seems Impossible These Days |
| Why A 9/11-Era Political Consensus Seems Impossible These Days |
| Do You Buy That … President Biden’s Low Approval Numbers Will Improve? |
| Will Biden’s Vaccine Mandates Work? |
| The California Recall Election Wasn't Close |
| Can An Anti-Trump Republican Win A Primary? |
| GOP Critics Of Trump’s ‘Big Lie’ Are Struggling To Win Reelection |
| What You Need To Know About Canada And Germany's Elections |
| Will Democrats Get Their Agenda Passed? |
| How To Make Sense Of The Latest Crime Data |
| Do You Buy That … Democrats Should Worry About The Virginia Governor’s Race? |
| Does One Party Win More Political Fights Than The Other? |
| Why The U.S. Was Unprepared For COVID-19 |
| The Politics Of The Debt Ceiling |
| What Happens When Local News Disappears |
| Do You Buy That … Limiting Abortion Access Will Mobilize Democrats At The Polls? |
| What Makes A Party Or Politician Popular? |
| Adam Schiff Is Worried About American Democracy |
| Do You Buy That … Donald Trump Will Be The Republican Nominee in 2024? |
| What Are The Most Popular Parts Of The Democrats’ Spending Bill? |
| Brad Raffensperger On The 2020 Election And Beyond |
| Do You Buy That … Political Forces Are Aligned On Climate Change? |
| Election Day 2021: Virginia And Beyond |
| A Good Election Night For Republicans |
| Do You Buy That … This Year’s Election Was Good For Trump’s 2024 Prospects? |
| Which Election Day Hot Takes Do You Buy? |
| This Is What Will Determine The Future Of Climate Change |
| The Pollster Who Wants To Quit Horse-Race Polling |
| What 44 Days In Las Vegas Taught Nate Silver |
| What The Two Parties Should Be Thankful For |
| About Those 2024 Polls ... |
| What SCOTUS — And Americans — Think About Overturning Roe |
| Do You Buy That … Stacey Abrams And Beto O’Rourke Will Win Their Governors’ Races? |
| Why Stacey Abrams And Beto O’Rourke Are Going For It In 2022 |
| Is The Media Tougher On Biden Than Trump? |
| What Would It Take To ‘Fix’ Polling … And Other Questions From Podcast Listeners |
| How Much Have Hispanic Voters Shifted Toward The GOP? |
| Why Manchin Is A 'No' On Build Back Better |
| What Americans Thought About COVID, Inflation And Britney Spears In 2021 |
| Why Jan. 6th Was Not A Turning Point |
| Do You Buy That … Jan. 6 Strengthened Trump’s Hold On The Republican Party? |
| How The 2022 Midterms Might Play Out |
| How Likely Is Another Civil War? |
| Don't Pay Attention To That Outlier Poll You Saw |
| Do You Buy That … Omicron Dooms Democrats In The Midterms? |
| Why Politicians — Like Manchin And Sinema — Go Rogue |
| Emergency Podcast: Justice Breyer Is Retiring |
| Do You Buy That … Democrat Retirements Will Give The GOP A Midterm Advantage? |
| The 7 Most Important Senate Races, Ranked |
| Why The GOP Has Made Gains With Latino Voters |
| Americans Say They're Over COVID-19. What Does That Mean? |
| Americans Aren’t As Polarized As The News Makes It Seem |
| Valentine's Day, Inflation and GOP Infighting |
| Is Boris Johnson Finished? |
| What Do Pollsters Know About Happiness? |
| Americans Are Unified Against Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine |
| Unity From Biden, Disunity In Texas |
| Is Putin Actually Popular In Russia? |
| How To Think About The Risk Of Nuclear War |
| The Political Price Of Gas |
| What Is Ron DeSantis's Vision For The GOP? |
| Do You Buy That … The U.S. Will See An Increase In COVID-19 Cases? |
| The Most Consequential Governor’s Races |
| The Partisan Grandstanding At Ketanji Brown Jackson’s Hearings |
| Do You Buy That … Republican Senators’ Sharp Questioning Of Ketanji Brown Jackson Could Backfire? |
| Should The Iowa Caucuses Go Away? |
| How Education Became Today's Wedge Issue |
| Do You Buy That … Brian Kemp Is The Favorite In Georgia’s Governors Race? |
| Are Both Liz Cheney And Madison Cawthorn In Primary Trouble? |
| Americans Think The War On Drugs Failed. Do Politicians Agree? |
| Do You Buy That … Sarah Palin Can Win Alaska’s House Seat? |
| Why Alaskans Aren’t In A Rush To Send Sarah Palin To Washington |
| Why Inflation Is Sparking Economic Pessimism |
| Do You Buy That … Emmanuel Macron Is The Favorite To Win The French Presidential Election? |
| How Old Is Too Old For Elected Office? |
| Why A Once-Fringe Candidate Is Now A Serious Contender For The French Presidency |
| Our First 2024 GOP Primary Draft |
| How A Struggle Between Elites And Populists Has Shaped The Right |
| Our First 2024 Democratic Primary Draft |
| The Ohio Primary And Draft SCOTUS Opinion |
| How The Fight Over Abortion Will Play Out In Red States |
| The Politics Of Anti-Critical Race Theory Laws |
| Who Will Win The GOP's Senate Primary In Pennsylvania? |
| What Tuesday's Primaries Could Mean For November |
| Are Trump's Endorsees About To Lose In Georgia? |
| Trump's Revenge Primary In Georgia Fails |
| Are Democrats Actually In Disarray? |
| The Democratic Divides In California |
| Were The California Primaries A Blow To The Progressive Movement? |
| Are Centrists The Most Powerful Politicians? |
| More Trouble For Democrats In The Rio Grande Valley |
| Are 1 Percent Of Americans Evil? |
| Emergency Podcast: Supreme Court Overturns Roe v. Wade |
| What The Politics Of Abortion Look Like Now |
| 2022 House Forecast |
| 2022 House Forecast — House Iowa 3 |
| 2022 House Forecast — House New York 21 |
| 2022 Senate Election Forecast |
| 2022 Senate Election Forecast — Senate Arizona |
| 2022 Senate Election Forecast — Senate Georgia |
| 2022 Senate Election Forecast — Senate New Hampshire |
| 2022 Senate Election Forecast — Senate North Carolina |
| 2022 Senate Election Forecast — Senate Ohio |
| 2022 Senate Election Forecast — Senate Pennsylvania |
| 2022 Senate Election Forecast — Senate Washington |
| 2022 Senate Election Forecast — Senate Wisconsin |
| The 2022 Forecast Is Live And ‘Model Talk’ Returns! |
| Why Republicans Are Favored To Win The House, But Not The Senate |
| What’s Behind FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 Election Forecast (As Told By Nate Silver) |
| Do You Buy That … The GOP Will Win The Senate In 2022? |
| Does DeSantis's Strength Spell Trouble For Trump? |
| Maybe Dobbs Did Change The Race. We’ll Need More Time To Know For Sure. |
| Do You Buy That … The Fall Of Roe v. Wade Will Help Democrats In The Midterms? |
| The Supreme Court Episode |
| Will Democrats Continue To Win In Georgia In 2022? |
| Biden Is Very Unpopular. It May Not Tell Us Much About The Midterms. |
| Americans Aren’t Happy With Biden. Or Republicans. |
| New Hampshire Is Tiny And Pretty Weird. That Could Help Maggie Hassan. |
| The Polls And Pundits Disagree (Again) |
| What Would Losing Big In The Midterms Mean For Biden? |
| The Political Environment Might Be Improving For Democrats |
| All The Political News You Missed Last Week |
| Why Kansas Voted To Keep Its Right To Abortion |
| It’s Hard To Win A Senate Race When You’ve Never Won An Election Before |
| Could The 'Inflation Reduction Act' Save Biden's Approval Rating? |
| Republican Outsiders Have Made Their Mark This Cycle |
| Will This Be An Asterisk* Election? |
| Are Democrats Really Going To Win In Ohio And Wisconsin? |
| Are Democrats Really Going To Win In Ohio And Wisconsin? |
| What Liz Cheney Might Do Next |
| Can Tim Ryan Really Win Ohio’s Senate Race? |
| Do You Buy That … Democrats Have A Chance Of Winning Senate Races In Ohio And North Carolina? |
| The Trump Investigations And What Americans Think About Them |
| If The Midterms Were Tomorrow, Republicans Might Be In Trouble |
| Where Should The Big Ten Expand Next? We Crunched The Numbers. |
| Is Student Debt Relief Good Politics? |
| Explore The Ways Republicans Or Democrats Could Win The Midterms |
| Why Sarah Palin Lost |
| Why Trump’s Presence In The Midterms Is Risky For The GOP |
| Do You Buy That … Dems Are Favored To Win Pennsylvania Senate And Governor’s Races? |
| What To Expect Between Now And Election Day |
| Why A State Like Michigan Might Actually Be A Blue State |
| Does The Monarchy Rely On Public Approval? |
| It's Not Yet Time To Start Worrying About The Polls |
| What’s Behind Democrats’ Improvement In Our Congressional Forecasts? |
| Will The Polls Overestimate Democrats Again? |
| Which Party Are Latino Voters Choosing In 2022? |
| Is Social Media Turning Us Into Political Extremists? |
| The Polls Still Do Not Show A GOP Bounceback |
| Why Biden's Unpopularity Doesn't Seem To Be Tanking Democrats |
| There’s A 6-In-10 Chance One Party Will Control Both Chambers Of Congress |
| 5 Reasons For Democrats To Still Be Concerned About The Midterms |
| What Is Going On In Alaska? … And More Questions From Listeners |
| What Would Two More Senators Do For Democrats? |
| Do Scandals Like Herschel Walker's Still Matter To Voters? |
| Nevada Could Be Senate Republicans’ Ace In The Hole |
| From Gas Prices To The Threat Of Nuclear Conflict … What Is Shaping The Midterms? |
| Is Oregon Going To Elect A Republican Governor? |
| Betting Markets Are Treating The Midterm Elections Like It’s A Presidential Election |
| Nevada Or Georgia … Which Senate Race Is Most Important? |
| The U.S. House Districts To Watch In 2022 |
| Don’t Obsess Over The Crosstabs! |
| Why I’m Telling My Friends That The Senate Is A Toss-Up |
| Early Voting Data Is Here. Don’t Put Too Much Stock In It. |
| How A College Education Divides American Voters |
| Live From D.C. … This Is Model Talk |
| Where Our Model Thinks The Polls Might Be Biased |
| The Pennsylvania Senate Race Is On A Knife’s Edge |
| The Case For A Republican Sweep On Election Night |
| How Do All These Republican Polls Affect The Model? |
| How Do All These Republican Polls Affect The Model? |
| The Case For A Democratic Surprise On Election Night |
| The Issues Worth $9 Billion In Ad Spending |
| The 3 Big Questions I Still Have About Election Day |
| The Final Pre-Midterm Model Talk |
| Republicans Are Favored In Our Final Midterm Forecasts |
| Final Election Update: The Forecast Is More Or Less Back Where It Started |
| The Red Wave Didn't Happen |
| The Pollsters Seem To Have Had A Good Night |
| Candidate Quality Mattered |
| When We Could Know The Results In The House And Senate |
| Do You Buy That … Sen. Raphael Warnock Is Favored In Georgia’s Senate Runoff? |
| Why Democrats Beat Historical Trends In 2022 |
| Who Will Have The Advantage In The Georgia Runoff? |
| Why DeSantis Is A Major Threat To Trump’s Reelection |
| Emergency Podcast: Will Trump Win The GOP Nomination? |
| Will Trump Win The Republican Nomination, Much Less The Presidency? |
| How The '90s Shaped Today's GOP |
| DYBT … Trump Is The Frontrunner For The 2024 GOP Nomination? |
| If Biden Doesn't Run In 2024, Who Will? |
| Is Democracy All Good Now? |
| Do You Buy That … McCarthy Will Eventually Become Speaker? |
| Warnock Has The Edge In A Close Race |
| How Democrats Won The Georgia Runoff |
| Are The Democrats Screwed In The Senate After 2024? |
| Do You Buy That … Georgia Is A Battleground State? |
| We Answer Your Lingering Questions About 2022 |
| Is This The Last Time This Decade Democrats Will Control The Senate? |
| Is There A Political Realignment Among Latino Voters? |
| What I Learned From The 2022 Midterms |
| The Politics Of Prosecuting Trump |
| Our Presidential Primary System Is An Accident |
| How The Primary System Has Shaped Our Politics |
| Do You Buy That … Young Voters Handed Democrats Wins In Close Races? |
| What The Speakership Vote Tells Us About The GOP |
| There Has To Be A Better Way To Pick Presidential Nominees ... Right? |
| Do You Buy That … GOP Investigations Effectively Hurt Biden’s Chances In 2024? |
| California's Senate Primary Is Going To Be A Doozy |
| What The Debt Ceiling And George Santos's Career Have In Common |
| Baby Boomers' Strength Was In Their Numbers. That's Changing. |
| There Are Some Big Elections Happening In 2023 |
| How Our 2022 Midterm Forecasts Performed |
| The Politics Of Loneliness |
| How Our 2022 Forecasts Actually Did |
| The Model Always Had Its Doubts About The Red Wave |
| Biden's Second State Of The Union Was His First Campaign Speech |
| American Opinion Of China Has Plummeted |
| Could Nikki Haley Actually Win The GOP Nomination? |
| Nikki Haley Has Tough Competition In Trump And DeSantis |
| What We Know About Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection |
| Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? |
| How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear |
| Why The Federal Reserve's Power Is 'Limitless' |
| The Poll That Ended Dilbert |
| Few Americans Think AI Will Do More Good Than Harm |
| What Would Happen If Trump Was A Third-Party Candidate In 2024? |
| Polls Haven't Been This Accurate Since At Least 1998 |
| The Hidden Stories In The U.S. Census |
| The 2000s Called, They Want Their Politics Back |
| Will Voters Care If Trump Gets Indicted? |
| Good Or Bad Use Of Polling (Taylor's Version) |
| New Laws Are Driving Red And Blue States Further Apart |
| Emergency Podcast: Trump Is Indicted |
| Why Tuesday Is The Highest Stakes Election Day Of 2023 |
| The Takeaways From 2023's Super Tuesday |
| The Politics Of AI |
| Do You Buy That … Last Week’s Election In Wisconsin Was The Most Important Election Of 2023? |
| Americans Are Feeling Better These Days |
| The Next Supreme Court Clash Over Abortion |
| How Our Presidential Endorsement Tracker Works |
| Live From New York: It's The FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast! |
| Live From New York: Will AI Replace This Podcast? |
| Are America's Favorite Governors Really All Republicans? |
| Where Biden Stands Heading Into 2024 |
| How Climate Change Will Reshape Where Americans Live |
| Does It Matter If King Charles Is Popular? |
| How Immigration Shapes American Politics |
| Why So Many Americans Trust The Weather Channel |
| Is The Eurovision Song Contest Rigged? |
| Can Tim Scott's Optimism Win Over The GOP? |
| The Case For And Against Ron DeSantis |
| There's A Debt Ceiling Agreement ... For Now |
| The GOP Field Gets Crowded |